The scheduled referendum on the bailout of Greece as been canceled.
Once again, the glorious dream of European integration is far to important to let details like the consent of the governed interfere…
Greeks Will Not be Allowed to Vote on Their Own Future
November 3rd, 2011New Poll Shows Support for Dewhurst Down to 22%
November 2nd, 2011The Ted Cruz campaign noted that a new UT/Texas Tribune poll showed Lt. Governor David Dewhurst’s support among Republican voters down to 22%, which is about half what previous polls have shown, and even less than that possibly anomalous Azimuth Research Group poll that showed both Cruz and Dewhurst tied around 30%. The UT/TT poll shows Cruz in second place at 10%, with a whopping 50% undecided. Still, to have such huge name recognition and to only be sitting at 22% must be frustrating for Team Dewhurst.
The same poll shows Ricardo Sanchez at a mere 11% of Democratic voters. He’s even running behind Chris Bell at 15%, even though Bell isn’t in the race…
Rick Perry’s Tax and Spending Reform Plan: Solid on Taxes, Timid and Unserious on Spending
October 26th, 2011So Rick Perry unveiled his tax and spending reform plan. (His Wall Street Journal piece provides a brief overview.) It’s a serious compilation of a variety of solid conservative ideas for reforming the federal government. Serious, that is, in every area except spending.
But before we get to the sour let’s look at the sweet. There is a great deal to like in Perry’s proposals:
So outside of the budget provisions, there is an awful lot for conservatives to like about the Perry plan.
Even when it comes to the budget section, there’s a lot of conservative red meat: a non-tax hike balanced budget amendment, an end to baseline budgeting and concurrent resolutions (which bake bigger government into the process), and an end to earmarks. All solid initiatives, though the problem here is less presidential will than getting them through congress.
So, given all that, what am I complaining about?
What makes the Perry budget timid and unserious is his proposal to “balance the budget by 2020.” Given the way Washington works, a promise to balance the budget eight years from now is a promise to never balance the budget. It’s tea so weak it might as well be water. A balanced budget target that far out means that Congress can keep putting off difficult decisions by passing bills that place imaginary savings in out years where they will soon be rendered moot by the next congress. It’s once again a chance to sell out budget discipline for a handful of magic beans.
It’s, yet again, kicking the can down the road.
It’s also a big step back from the Ryan plan, which demanded a balanced budget in the 2015 timeframe. This was the plan seen by conservative Republicans and Tea Party activists as the minimum necessary for a serious reduction in the federal budget deficit. Given serious action wasn’t taken for it this year, it’s reasonable to push it that deadline out one more year to 2016, but pushing the target out beyond that amounts to preemptive surrender.
While Perry’s $100 billion first year down-payment would be an improvement over the weak, phony-baloney deficit reduction enacted as part of the debt limit deal, it’s a ridiculously small cut for the $1 trillion+ Obama deficits being racked up each fiscal year.
Bad as it is as policy, the Perry 2020 date is utterly disasterous as an opening position for negotiations with congress. Perry is going to have to set hard, early deficit targets to have any chance of taming the Leviathan, and then use his veto pen early and often if he doesn’t get them. The truth is that Democrats will scream bloody murder at any attempt at deficit reduction, so the next President might as well (to use the classic Ronald Reagan analogy) “throw long.” Every debt ceiling vote will have to come with both serious budget cuts and the other budget-taming proposals in the Perry plan. Democrats may still filibuster, but then they’ll have to deal with the crushing realities of living under a budget that actual matches spending to revenues. Even with a Republican House and Senate, to actually balance the budget the next President will need to push relentlessly to pass the most stringent budget that can muster 51 senator votes via reconciliation. Setting a 2020 date does nothing to prepare the media and ideological battlespaces for those difficult choices.
Out-of-control federal spending is at the heart of almost all our economic problems, and the single biggest factor behind Tea Party discontent. Thus it has to be at the top of the next President’s agenda. Despite many other solid economic idea, the Perry plan doesn’t meet the test for serious deficit reduction. The shame is that Perry accomplished real spending reform in Texas. To impose such discipline on the out-of-control federal budge will be an order of magnitude more difficult. But to achieve real spending reform, you first have to campaign for it. Setting a goal for a balanced budget at the end of a theoretical Perry presidency’s second term rather than the first actually hampers that goal.
LinkSwarm for October 25, 2011
October 25th, 2011Have a nice cup of randomness:
Scenes from the EuroZone Summit
October 23rd, 2011There have been high level Euro rescue talks going on all weekend. How are they faring? Not well.
Just when the eurozone governments thought it could not get worse for Europe’s single currency, it did.
Shell-shocked EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Saturday were already reeling from the worst Franco-German rift for over 20 years and a fractious failure to resolve the problems that have brought Greece, and the euro, close to the brink.
But then a new bombshell hit as a joint report by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that, without a default, the Greek debt crisis alone could swallow the EuroZone’s entire €440 billion bailout fund – leaving nothing to spare to help the affected banks of Italy, Spain or France.
Of course, the problem with following this story from abroad is how the news of the summit gets distorted like some intercontinental game of telephone, especially when filtered through the dulcet-toned hearing aids of welfare state boosters. Thus this overly enthusiastic piece in left-wing newspaper The Guardian, citing that a deal was near based on unnamed “EU diplomats” becomes this blipvert in the left-wing Daily Beast stating that a deal had been reached, becomes this Fark thread in which clueless liberals crow that no one should ever have doubted the soundness of either the Euro or the glorious European welfare state. And also that ratings agencies are evil.
And yet, as of right now, this “done deal” to rescue the Euro has yet to materialize. How strange!
Somehow, how France (a country running a a $90+ billion dollar budget deficit) and Germany (a country whose ruling party has lost every local election since it started shoveling money down the Greek bailout chute), were to magically comes up with some €1.6 trillion Euros (the difference between the current bailout fund and the super-sized fund required to backstop the Euro following the inevitable Greek default) is nowhere specified. After all, it was hard enough for Chancellor Angela Merkel to get Germany’s contribution to the fund boosted from €123 billion to €211 billion in the first place.
As a result of all this happy, confident talk of how the Euro will never be allowed to falter? Moody’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating. They also threatened to do the same for France, especially if they decided to throw more taxpayer money into the Greek debt maw.
The Good Ship Europe bears its load of bailout guarantees straight for the center of the Greek Debt crisis.
And if you’re the EU, how do you prevent your debt from being downgraded? A.) Stop borrowing so much, B.) Increase your emergency reserves, or C.) Make it illegal for bond rating companies to downgrade your debt?
Yeah, that will work.
How badly awry has the Eruo project gone? The problem with this Hoover Institute piece on is what not to quote from it:
The champions of the European Union once touted it as a “bold new experiment in living” and “the best hope in an insecure age.” But these days “fear is coursing through the corridors of Brussels,” as the B.B.C. reported in September. Such fear is justified, for the nations of Europe are struggling with fiscal problems that challenge the integrity of the whole E.U.-topian ideal. Greece teetering on the brink of default on its debts, E.U. nations squabbling about how to deal with the crisis, debt levels approaching 100 percent of GDP even in economic-powerhouse countries like Germany and France, and European banks exposed to depreciating government bonds are some of the signposts on the road to decline.
A monetary union comprising independent states, each with its own peculiar economic and political interests, histories, cultural norms, laws, and fiscal systems, was bound to end up in the current crisis. All that borrowed money, however, was necessary for funding the lavish social welfare entitlements and employment benefits that once impressed champions of the “European Dream.” Yet, despite the greater fiscal integration created by the E.U., sluggish, over-regulated, over-taxed economies could not generate enough money to pay for such amenities. Now, the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, admits, “We can’t finance our social model.”
This financial crisis means the government-financed dolce vita lifestyle once brandished as a reproach to work-obsessed America is facing cutbacks and austerity programs immensely unpopular among Europeans otherwise used to amenities like France’s 35-hour work week, or Greece’s two extra months of pay, or England’s generous housing subsidies that cost $34.4 billion a year. No surprise, then, that from Athens’ Syntagma Square to Madrid’s Puerta del Sol, austerity measures attempting to scale back government spending have been met with strikes, demonstrations, boycotts, and protests, some violent, on the part of citizens for whom such government entitlements have become human rights. In fact, such transfers of wealth have been formalized as rights in Articles 34 and 35 of the E.U.’s Charter of Fundamental Human Rights.
The Euro crises will likely lead to another recession in the U.S. That is, if you think we ever came out of the Obama recession in the first place, which we didn’t.
Europe’s private sector shrank for the first time in two years last month.
Again: The question of a Eurozone collapse is not “if,” it is “when.” And how much of the losses European banks can put taxpayers on the hook for.
Lt. Governor Chupacabra Sighted!
October 21st, 2011David Dewhurst has finally stepped down from his ivory tower and entered the political fray in person, joining his fellow candidates at the Spirit of Freedom Republican Women candidate forum in Sugar Land. This might be the first result of Dewhurst’s campaign staff shake-up.
It sounds like time constraints (“Friday’s event at the Sugar Creek Baptist Church chapel had to wrap up on time to make way for a funeral”) prevented much in the way of candidate interaction.
The report also says that Tom Leppert is running statewide ads, which I have not seen. It’s pretty early to start running TV ads, but understandable, given how badly he lags Dewhurst and Ted Cruz in the latest poll.
Fast and Furious Updates for October 21, 2011
October 21st, 2011“So, Mr. ‘You just Took a One Week Break,'” you ask, “where do I go to get up to speed on Fast and Furious, ALA Operation Gunwalker?”
I’m glad you asked.
Perhaps the best place to start is Gun Rights Examiner David Codrea’s six part series, which provides a nice overview, as well as a timeline with links to the related posts:
Now back to our regularly scheduled update, which has been on hold while I did things like Texas Senate Race updates, job interviews, etc. So some of this will be old news to many of you:
(Hat tips: Just about everyone under the Gun Blog header to your right, plus Insta and Ace.)
Ding Dong, The Witch is Dead
October 20th, 2011Moammar Gadhafi, that is, in the Libyan city of Sirte. Although there are conflicting reports that he was only wounded, but this (graphic) video from the Telegraph shows someone who looks: A.) An awful lot like Gadhafi, and B.) An awful lot like dead.
Another (graphic) video from Al Jazerra:
(Hat tip: Michael Totten.)
Also reported dead: Moammar Gadhafi, Muammar el-Qaddafi, Moammar Kadafi, Muammar Gaddafi, Muammar Gadafy, Moammar Gaddafi, and Moammar Khaddafy.
According to the BBC, he was founding hiding in a drainage pipe, much like Saddam Hussein was pulled from his spider hole.
This is good news for Libya, for the United States, and the world. Now if we can just keep Jihadests from taking over in Tripoli, Obama will have an actual foreign policy accomplishment on his resume.