Archive for the ‘Elections’ Category

Elizabeth Warren Is A Damn Liar

Saturday, February 9th, 2019

A few days ago this came across my Twitter feed:

At first I was suspicious this might be a Photoshop, until I noticed it linked to a Washington Post story. (The Post hasn’t quite stooped to Photoshoping fake news, but I wouldn’t put it past them around, say, October 2020…)

In addition to the DNA test, she released employment documents over the summer to show she didn’t use ethnicity to further her career. And in a speech a year ago she addressed her decision to call herself a Native American, though she didn’t offer the apology that some wanted at the time.

But as Warren undergoes increased scrutiny as a presidential candidate, additional documents could surface to keep the issue alive.

Using an open records request during a general inquiry, for example, The Post obtained Warren’s registration card for the State Bar of Texas, providing a previously undisclosed example of Warren identifying as an “American Indian.”

Warren filled out the card by hand in neat blue ink and signed it. Dated April 1986, it is the first document to surface showing Warren making the claim in her own handwriting. Her office didn’t dispute its authenticity.

Snip.

Warren filled out the card after being admitted to the Texas bar. Warren was doing legal work on the side, but nothing that required bar admission in the state, according to her campaign.

The date coincided with her first listing as a “minority” by the Association of American Law Schools. Warren reported herself as minority in the directory every year starting in 1986 — when AALS first included a list of minority law professors — to 1995, when her name dropped off the list.

Warren also had her ethnicity changed from white to Native American in December 1989 while working at the University of Pennsylvania. The change came two years after she was hired there.

Several months after Warren started working at Harvard Law School in 1995, she okayed listing her ethnicity as Native American. Harvard listed Warren as Native American in its federal affirmative action forms from 1995 to 2004, records show.

Warren, of course, has been swearing up and down, at least since her successful Senate run in 2012, that she never used fake Indian roots to get ahead by Affirmative Action. This additional bit of evidence, along with evidence about claiming to be an American Indian in college application processes, suggest that Warren is indeed a damn liar.

Before praising the Washington Post for digging out this nugget during investigative reporting, we have to ask: why now? The controversy has been dogging Warren for seven years. Why did no one from the Post ever dig this deep into these allegations before?

For one thing, Annie Linskey, one of the two reporters bylining the story, only joined the Post in November. Guess where she came from and what she reported on?

We are very excited to announce that Annie Linskey is joining The Post as a national politics reporter. Annie is the first of seven additions to our campaign team that we will be announcing in the coming weeks as we expand our team for the 2020 presidential race. She will focus on the Democratic field, covering the campaign from the trail while also reporting on the backgrounds and records of the major contenders.

Annie joins us from The Boston Globe’s Washington bureau, where she has worked for the last four years, and most recently served as deputy bureau chief. Annie distinguished herself as an authority on Sen. Elizabeth Warren, landing deeply reported stories on Warren’s legal career and the issue of Native American heritage. Annie covered the 2016 presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton and has covered the Trump administration and the politics of immigration.

But I suspect the real reason is the same reason Linskey was brought on in the first place: the mainstream media is in the tank for Kamala Harris to be the 2020 Democratic nominee. All other female and non-white candidates must be damaged or knocked out early to better clear Harris’ “lane.” Thus the same media that relentlessly boosted Warren when she advanced their policy goals now become hostile to her because she threatens their anointed choice.

Live by social justice warrior politics, die by social justice warrior politics…

Kamala Harris Is A Damn Liar

Thursday, February 7th, 2019

Hey, remember all the way back to four days ago, when Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris decried identity politics?

Or maybe all the way back to last week, where she declared:

We, as Democrats and progressives, cannot afford to be guilty of putting people in these narrow boxes based on what we have decided is their identity instead of seeing that they have lived full lives. They are full people, as multifaceted as the other people we know.

Well, guess what?

Translation: Get back in your narrow box!

That’s a laundry list of Social Justice Warrior knee-jerk identity politics accusations against anyone opposing their agenda of the moment; the only surprise is slipping in “antisemitism” instead of “Islamophobia.” And by “transphobia” she means people who have the unmitigated gall to believe that there are two biological sexes, determined at the genetic level long before birth. Which, of course, plays such a central course in Russian foreign policy. And I sincerely doubt Russia saw “homophobia” as a weakness, since Russia itself is far from a hotbed of gay rights.

If Kamala Harris wants to see who is using identity politics to divide America, she should look in a mirror.

(Think of this as the first of series of “Identity Politics is destroying the Democratic Party” posts. By the time I get to the next one, I assume the past racial sins of 9 or 10 more Virginia Democrats will have been brought to light…)

Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for February 4, 2019

Monday, February 4th, 2019

This week in the clown car update: Spartacus is In and LA mayor Eric Garcetti is Out. Oh, and Oprah’s spiritual advisor joined the race, because why the hell not?

This is the point in campaign cycles when key campaign staffers and donors stop returning the calls of undeclared longshots, either joining up with a declared campaign or waiting for a bigger fish (“Sure, Mike, I think you’d make a great President, but old Joe Biden and I go way back…”). Biden can wait. Bloomberg can wait. O’Rourke has enough residual fawning media afterglow and a big enough contributor list that he can probably wait as well. Beyond them, the train has already sounded the whistle and announced final boarding. There will be another one along in 2023…

An Emerson poll shows that only Biden beats President Donald Trump in Iowa, while Trump beats everyone else. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says that internal polling shows him in double digits. The problem, of course, is that “internal polls” are always garbage.

538’s weekly roundup. And National Review‘s Jim Geraghty sorts the Democratic candidates by age. “To get a sense of the generational difference, when Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate, Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Castro had not been born yet and O’Rourke was two months old.”

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out. She’s been tapped to give the Democrats state of the union response to President Donald Trump. I have to admit that it would be hilarious if she used the time to launch her own Presidential campaign…
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Maybe. All quiet on the Bennet front.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Did Biden embrace segregation in 1975? Will being Obama’s Veep inoculate him from charges of racism? We all know the answer to that: If you’re inconvenient for Social Justice Warriors, nothing inoculates you from charges of racism.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. “Michael Bloomberg’s Secret Plans to Take Down Trump.” Can’t be very secret if it’s in The Atlantic, now can it?

    Michael Bloomberg has bigger plans for 2020 than running for president. The billionaire and former New York City mayor has been openly dreaming of the White House for 25 years, and spent huge amounts of time and money four times over the past 10 years trying to figure out a way to get himself there.

    But he has hesitations about this race, too. He’s not sure there is a realistic space in the Democratic primaries for his centrist record. And he almost certainly won’t run if Joe Biden does, members of his team believe.

    Note that “centrist” has now come to mean “not completely insane on law and order issues” in Democratic circles…

  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Website. Twitter. Spartacus is in. I predict we see a vicious series of attacks against Booker from a mainstream media desperate to keep him from eating into anointed favorite Kamala Harris’ base. Upgrade from Probably In.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s calling Trump a racist, so it sounds like he’s already in mid-season far-left pandering form.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Appeared on ABC’s This Week. Might have peaked upon announcement.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. In an interview with New York magazine, he says the race is all about immigration, Because Trump. I’m sure he wishes it was, but I bet Democratic strategists who can actually read polls dread seeing that happen…
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Never mind what Hillary herself said last week, Clinton toady John Podesta says she’s not running. Back in the crypt, Grandma Death. Downgrade from “Maybe.”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. New York Times notices that the appetite for De Blasio rivals the popularity of [spins pop culture reference wheel] New Coke. Assuming the pitchman was still Bill Cosby…
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. He was on Iowa public television, sounding disturbingly normal by Democratic Party chances, so I can only assume he’s toast.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. This week’s obligatory MSM “Tulsi Gabbard is doomed” piece comes via Politico, who claim her campaign is in “disarray.” You know, just like the all those 2017 stories on the Trump White House. Glenn Greenwald goes on to debunk another NBC hit piece: “NBC News, to Claim Russia Supports Tulsi Gabbard, Relies on Firm Just Caught Fabricating Russia Data for the Democratic Party.”
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out. “This is where I want to be, and this is a place where we have so much exciting work to finish.”
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out. Just joined CNN. A downgrade from “Probably Out.”
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Traveling to Iowa.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She’s fundraising in Hollywood (where “she disavowed ‘identity politics,'” which I’m guessing doesn’t include any of the leftwing kinds), and the latest fawning profile comes via the Washington Post.
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Says he’s the guy to beat Trump rather than someone “far left.” Compared to any field but this one, Hickenlooper himself is pretty far left himself…
  • Addition: Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder: Leaning toward a run. Didn’t want to add him, but he’s speaking in Iowa. Maybe threatening to take votes away from Kamala Harris is the only way to get the MSM to do honest reporting on Fast And Furious…
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He’s very, very upset that Schultz is considering running as an Independent than as a Democrat.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. Get’s a semi-fawning profile from NeverTrumper George Will, with a slam at “skateboarding man-child” Beto O’Rourke along the way.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe? Zero buzz.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Says he would “like to” run and will make a decision by March 31.”
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? Showed up in new Hampshire to give a speech only to shrug off questions about why he was there.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? He evidently stopped raising money months ago. Also:

    A Facebook Live chat he did in response to President Donald Trump’s Oval Office address on immigration earlier this month began with about 2,600 viewers. By the end, after an hour of him walking around his El Paso neighborhood trying to show the calm reality of a border town, and looking at the decorations in friends’ homes, and then sitting on a couch and chatting at length, the viewers steadily dropped to just over 1,000.

  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. He’s not even in that 538 roundup.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Unnamed sources say he’s running.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “I’m close to making a decision. I’ll be in New Hampshire tomorrow, so I’m excited for that.” Yes, nothing says “excitement” like midwinter New Hampshire…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. “Elizabeth Warren plans tour of eastern Iowa towns after ‘big announcement’ in her home state.”
  • Addition: Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. So let me get this straight: Oprah’s not running, but her spiritual advisor is? She most recently placed fourth in a California congressional race, but Team Kamala must be shitting bricks at the possibility that Oprah might endorse her.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. I will say he has a lot of events on his calendar
  • LinkSwarm for February 1, 2019

    Friday, February 1st, 2019

    I know many of you don’t want to hear it, but here in Texas we’re enjoying a comparatively mild winter…

  • Why President Donald Trump will win the wall fight:

    Trump has, however, suggested that he may well go the emergency route if Pelosi and Schumer remain intransigent: “We can call a national emergency. I haven’t done it. I may do it.… It’s another way of doing it.” The standard line trotted out by the Democrats and the media when the President alludes to an emergency declaration is that a phalanx of pettifoggers will contrive to tie it up in the courts indefinitely. This has even been repeated by conservative pundits. According to Professor Turley, however, “Courts generally have deferred to the judgments of presidents on the basis for such national emergencies, and dozens of such declarations have been made without serious judicial review.”

    All of which means that there is no practical way for the Democrats to stop Trump from getting his wall. He will make a sound, statesmanlike case for it to the nation during the State of the Union address — just 10 days before the deadline to avoid another shutdown. Nancy Pelosi will be scowling behind him, still smarting from the beating she received in the polls from the last shutdown and the hectoring to which she has no doubt been subjected from vulnerable members whose constituents are tired of, “NO.” Then, failed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams will deliver the Dem SOTU response and characterize Trump’s wall using the usual tired clichés about racism.

    In other words, Trump will have been presidential. He will have delivered all manner of good news about the economy, deregulation, health care, foreign policy, and will have laid out a plan for the wall. The Democrats will have offered identity politics, obstruction, investigations, and magical thinking on policy. Pelosi will at length decide it’s smarter to ignore the crazies in her caucus, give Trump something that he can call a “win” on the wall, and move on to something else… anything else. And all the TDS victims and Never Trumpers will demand to know what happened to their bête noire.

    (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

  • What a fully-funded border protection system looks like.
  • Shot: “Trump has opportunity to flip the 9th Circuit, so why isn’t he?”
  • Chaser: “Trump heard the conservative media outcry, nominates three judges for 9th Circuit.” That’s some swift course-correction…
  • Charlie Martin looks at big media’s very bad week.
  • Newseum closing. “Look on my works, ye mighty…”
  • Old and Busted: “Neither snow nor rain, nor gloom of night, shall stay these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.” The New Coldness: Mail delivery in Minnesota cancelled due to cold.
  • Related:

    In fact, with all of this year after year of the HOTTEST YEAR EVER, no state has set a highest temperature record is more than 20 years. In fact, most (39 out of 50) state highest temperature records were set quite long ago – over 50 years ago, sometimes as long ago as 1888 (!).

    Stop and think about that – if the science were as settled as people say, wouldn’t there be at least one state that set an all time high record recently? What a strange warming that raises average temperatures but not record high temperatures.

  • Heh:

  • “A shocking report from the Texas Secretary of State last week revealed 95,000 individuals identified in the Texas Department of Public Safety database as non-U.S. citizens have registered to vote in Texas — and 58,000 of those have voted in one or more Texas election since 1996.”
  • Newly seated Texas congressman Chip Roy isn’t backing down.
  • Four Houston police officers shot serving a narcotics warrant in southeast Houston.
  • Houston Police union honcho says that hands up, don’t shoot is to blame. Sounds like there may be a lot of blame to go around, including the possibility of excessive force for a narcotics raid.
  • Cop killer executed after thirty years on death row.
  • Texans may enjoy real property tax reform soon. It’s amazing what can be accomplished when you have a speaker working for conservative goals, rather than against them…
  • “Public documents obtained by a Portland attorney reveal that Portland Public School staff, planned, executed and paid for what the media and the school district branded as a ‘student’ anti-Second Amendment protest last March 14th.” Sounds like they should be charged with embezzlement. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Worth a chuckle:

  • The negative startup economics of Buzzfeed:

    In April 2013, it was reported that BuzzFeed’s investment was $46 million, which means they’ve attracted about $450 million in new capital over the past six years — despite having never shown a profit!

    BuzzFeed has been burning through cash at a rate of $75 million a year and you might think that at some point their investors would become impatient waiting for this operation to show some prospect of making a return on their investment.

  • Heh:

  • “The Navy’s costliest warship, the $13 billion Gerald R. Ford, had 20 failures of its aircraft launch-and-landing systems during operations at sea, according to the Pentagon’s testing office.” There’s a reason they have shakedown cruises, and I think there’s a good chance they’ll work out the bugs and get the electromagnetic catapult systems working properly. But at $13 billion, the cost-benefit analysis of additional aircraft carriers starts to get very tricky vs. say, four cheaper ships capable of launching 1,000 semi-autonomous drones each. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Rand Paul’s attacker finds out that assaulting people over political differences is a money-losing proposition.
  • Did Israeli scientists develop a cure for cancer? Let’s hope so…
  • Was Michael Jackson a child diddler?
  • Three Charged for Working With Serial Swatter.”
  • Robert Stacy McCain talks about Tom Wolfe, Junior Johnson, and the decline of journalism:

    Now, Tom Wolfe was a genuine intellectual — he had a Ph.D. from Princeton, for crying out loud — but he was also a Southerner, a native of Virginia, and unlike so many other journalists who have written about the South, he had sympathy for the people he wrote about. He wasn’t out to write an exposé or to do what is nowadays called “investigative journalism,” but sought to explain the folkways of small-town Appalachia to the urban sophisticates who read Esquire, to make the reader see how wholesome and quintessentially American these people really were.

    If you want to know why nobody gives a damn about magazines like Esquire anymore, it’s because the progressive politics of the 21st century forbid any sympathy for the kind of people who like NASCAR. Everything in big-league journalism now is about left-wing politics, more or less, and because North Carolina rednecks probably aren’t too excited about the Left’s agenda of open borders and transgender rights and all that, there is zero possibility a latter-day Tom Wolfe could get any New York-based magazine to publish an article like “The Last American Hero.”

    The whole thing is basically a celebration of toxic masculinity, as the Gender Studies majors would say. Junior Johnson was not one of these “sensitive” modern guys, but a big muscular fellow who thrived on ferocious competition in one of the most masculine of sports.

    He also quotes part of my favorite passage from Wolfe’s celebrated essay, about courage being one of Appalachia’s exportable commodities:

    In the Korean War, not a very heroic performance by American soldiers generally, there were seventy-eight Medal of Honor winners. Thirty-nine of them were from the South, and practically all of the thirty-nine were from small towns in or near the Appalachians. The New York metropolitan area, which has more people than all these towns put together, had three Medal of Honor winners, and one of them had just moved to New York from the Appalachian region of West Virginia. Three of the Medal of Honor winners came from within fifty miles of Junior Johnson’s side porch.

  • The coming Google+pocalypse.
  • Feminists aren’t just angry, they ignore facts that disagree with their preexisting anger.
  • This guy should make you feel a lot better about your own obscure collecting hobby.
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 28, 2019

    Monday, January 28th, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is In, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is All But In, and Bobby Francis O’Rourke is sounding a lot more Hamlet-like than heretofore. And a very, very familiar name is once again making noises about a run…

    According to this Zogby poll, everything is coming up Milhouse Biden. Biden leads field with 27%, well ahead of Sanders (18%), Warren (9%), Bloomberg (8%), with Harris and O’Rourke at 6%. McAuliffe, Gabbard and Castro all poll at 0%, behind even John Delaney at 1%.

    In an Emerson poll of announced candidates, “Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.”

    538 has their weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings. I haven’t looked at it much because that would be cheating.

    Oh, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says he’s considering an independent run for President. That would spice things up nicely, and Democrats are livid the he might split the anti-Trump vote. His net worth is estimated at just under $3 billion, so he could probably self-fund a serious run.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: “I’m thinking about it.” Oh thanks, that’s just super-helpful…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Twitter feed. Here’s an Esquire piece that says Biden should run so he can lose badly for his perfidious gestures towards bipartisanship…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. No announcement, but this week he did some Trump bashing, so of course the media covered it. If he runs it will be on climate change and gun control, which may not be enough intersectional tofu for the SJW faction. He does well in a Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. This week Vanity Fair critiques Booker’s style. To be fair, there’s a lot there to critique, but I also get the impression that the media want to knock a potential rival for Kamala Harris’ presumed voting block out early.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s boasting about how he could beat Trump in Ohio and New York. Since Hillary beat Trump in New York, the latter is not much of a boast…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Official website. Facebook page. Twitter feed. Announced this week. First openly gay Presidential candidate to garner any media attention. Served in the Naval Reserve in Afghanistan. Here’s 538 doing the how he could win thing, but even they sound dubious: “Among adults who identified as Democrats, 73 percent of respondents supported gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey. Independents were close behind at 70 percent. But the same research found support for gay marriage at 51 percent among black adults, an important part of the Democratic coalition.”
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter feed. He hates the fact that you got a tax cut. Also, NBC does some Hispandering about the “historic” nature of his campaign, without ever mentioning the name “Ted Cruz.”
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Maybe? “Clinton is telling people that she’s not closing the doors to the idea of running in 2020,” Zeleny said on Inside Politics. “I’m told by three people that as recently as this week, she was telling people that, given all this news from the indictments, particularly the Roger Stone indictment, she talked to several people, saying ‘Look, I’m not closing the doors to this.'” Fire up the villager’s torches, boys, Baroness Frankenstein is trying to break out of her crypt! (Hat tip: Red State’s Twitter feed.) Upgrade from “Probably Out.”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. “De Blasio Dead Last Among NYers’ Picks For President, Poll Shows.” To know him is to loath him…
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. “Democratic 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney on Thursday earned the approval of the Nashua Telegraph’s editorial board in New Hampshire.” That and $5…
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. The left-wing hit pieces against Gabbard are coming fast and furious. “Is Tulsi Gabbard the Jill Stein of 2020? The Democratic candidate’s perplexing, Bannonesque foreign policy and passivity toward Assad may make her radioactive. And then there is the homophobia.” Man, she sure has somebody (probably the Harris campaign) worried…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, and he managed to cave in enough to end the teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. “Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a Bizarrely Wretched Public Speaker. Finally a Woman Who Makes Hillary Clinton Look Authentic by Comparison!”
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. Had a kickoff rally in Oakland. She’s stacking her campaign with ex-Hillary Clinton staffers. Because there’s no way that could possibly backfire.

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. In Iowa.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He wants to run on climate change, but he’s having to deal with a measles outbreak in his state.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Amy Klobuchar.” “One of her most influential mentors is former vice president Walter Mondale.” And if that doesn’t say “Electoral Juggernaut”…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “I will make a decision by March 31.”
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. “Oregon senator postpones decision on presidential bid.”
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Headed back to New Hampshire February 2nd.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Addition: Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Dropped Out. I wasn’t including this guy because I didn’t think he had any chance, and evidently he came to the same conclusion. Listing him here only because he was included in that Emerson poll.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? The machine is in place, but where’s the driver? He’s starting to sound a lot more Hamlet-like. “Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to ‘raise expectations” about a 2020 bid.” Sure doesn’t sound like someone with a fire in the belly to run. Downgrade from Probably In.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Website. Twitter feed. Reports say he is “set to announce he will run for president in 2020.”
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “Can we win? There is a path. It’s not an easy path. It’s a steep mountain to climb and I’m up for it. Right now, I have to talk with my family.” Also says there’s a “chance” he could quarterback the Rams next year.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She wants an unconstitutional wealth tax. In a sign that America’s opioid epidemic has gotten out of hand, George Will calls Warren “Democrat’s Thatcher, if they dare.” Trump Derangement Syndrome is a helluva drug…
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Yet here’s a Rolling Stone interview with him, because I run a full service blog. “In a year when the progressive Democratic platform is coalescing around variations of Medicare-for-All, free college and the Green New Deal, presidential candidate Andrew Yang stands apart — with a bold proposal to provide a ‘Freedom Dividend’ of $1,000 a month to every adult in America.” I look forward to the forthcoming Yang Free Pony Proposal…
  • How Texas Oilmen Made LBJ

    Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019

    There’s a fascinating piece by LBJ biographer Robert Caro about how he pieced together how powerful Texas oilmen, through the insistence of Brown & Root and speaker Sam Rayburn, made Lyndon Baines Johnson’s career by making him the conduit for Texas oil money in the 1940 election.

    For some time after Johnson’s arrival in Congress, in May, 1937, his letters to committee chairmen and other senior congressmen had been in a tone befitting a new congressman with no power—the tone of a junior beseeching a favor from a senior, or asking, perhaps, for a few minutes of his time. But there were also letters and memos in the same boxes from senior congressmen in which they were doing the beseeching, asking for a few minutes of his time. What was the reason for the change? Was there a particular time at which it had occurred?

    Going back over my notes, I put them in chronological order, and when I did it was easy to see that there had indeed been such a time: a single month, October, 1940. Before that month, Lyndon Johnson had been invariably, in his correspondence, the junior to the senior. After that month—and, it became clearer and clearer as I put more and more documents into order, after a single date, November 5, 1940, Election Day—the tone was frequently the opposite. And it wasn’t just with powerful congressmen. After that date, Johnson’s files also contained letters written to him by mid-level congressmen, and by other congressmen as junior as he, in a supplicating tone, whereas there had been no such letters—not a single one that I could find—before that date. Obviously, the change had had something to do with the election. But what?

    Snip.

    [Thomas G.] Corcoran had said that the answer to my question was money, and if money was involved the place to start looking was Brown & Root, the Texas road-and-dam-building firm, whose principals, Herman and George Brown (Root had died years before), had been the secret but major financiers of Johnson’s early career; by 1940, Brown & Root had already begun receiving federal contracts through Johnson’s efforts. When it came to money, there were no closer associates than Herman and George. I didn’t have much hope of finding anything in writing, but their files were files in which I should nonetheless have been turning every page.

    I started doing that now. I requested Box 13 in the LBJA “Selected Names” collection and pulled out the file folders for Herman. There was a lot of fascinating material in the files’ two hundred and thirty-seven pages, but nothing on the 1940 change. George’s correspondence was in Box 12. There were about two hundred and thirty pages in his file. I sat there turning the pages, every page, thinking that I was probably just wasting more days of my life. And then, suddenly, as I lifted yet another innocuous letter to put it aside, the next document was not a letter but a Western Union telegram form, turned brown during the decades since it had been sent—on October 19, 1940. It was addressed to Lyndon Johnson, and was signed “George Brown,” and it said, in the capital letters Western Union used for its messages: “YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO HAVE CHECKS BY FRIDAY . . . HOPE THEY ARRIVED IN DUE FORM AND ON TIME.”

    It also named the people who were supposed to have sent the checks—six of Brown & Root’s business associates. And Tommy Corcoran had been wrong: Lyndon Johnson had for once put something in writing. Attached to the telegram was a copy of his response to George. “ALL OF THE FOLKS YOU TALKED TO HAVE BEEN HEARD FROM,” it said. “I AM NOT ACKNOWLEDGING THEIR LETTERS, SO BE SURE TO TELL ALL THESE FELLOWS THAT THEIR LETTERS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED . . . YOUR FRIEND, LYNDON B. JOHNSON.” Johnson had added by hand, “The thing is exceeding my expectations. The Boss is listening to my suggestions, thanks to your encouragements.”

    So there was the proof that Johnson had received money from Brown & Root in October, 1940 (and that it had brought him into some sort of contact with “the Boss,” Johnson’s name for President Franklin Roosevelt). But how much had the six donors sent? Why hadn’t Brown & Root sent the money itself? And, more important, what had happened to the money? How did Johnson use it? What was the mechanism by which it was distributed? There was no clue in the telegram, or in Johnson’s reply. But the money had come from Texas, and George and Herman had friends who, I knew, had contributed, at the Browns’ insistence, to Johnson’s first campaigns. Most of the contributors, I had been told, were oilmen—in Texas parlance, “big oilmen.”

    I started calling for the big oilmen’s folders. And, sure enough, there was a letter, dated in October, from one of the biggest of the oilmen, Clint Murchison. Murchison dealt with senators or with the Speaker of the House, Sam Rayburn, the leader of the Texas delegation; he hardly knew the young congressman; in his letter to Johnson, he misspelled his name “Linden.” But he was evidently following Brown & Root’s lead. “We are enclosing herewith the check of the Aloco Oil Co. . . . for $5,000, payable to the Democratic Congressional Committee,” his letter said. Another big oilman was Charles F. Roeser, of Fort Worth: the amount mentioned in the letter I found from him was again five thousand, the payee the same.

    So the recipient was the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had previously been nothing more than a moribund subsidiary of the Democratic National Committee. There were a lot of file folders in Boxes 6, 7, 8, and 9 of the Johnson House papers labelled “Democratic National Committee.” Those boxes contained thirty-two hundred pages. Some of the folders had less than inviting titles. “General—Unarranged,” for example, was a thick folder, bulging with papers that had been sloppily crammed into it. When I pulled it out, I remember asking myself if I really had to do “General—Unarranged.” But Alan [Hathway, Caro’s editor at Newsday] might possibly have been proud of me—and I wasn’t very deep into the folder when I was certainly grateful to him. One of the six people George Brown said had sent checks was named Corwin. In “General—Unarranged,” not in alphabetical order but just jammed in, was a note from J. O. Corwin, a Brown & Root subcontractor, saying, “I am enclosing herewith my check for $5,000, payable to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.” Five thousand dollars. Had each of the six men mentioned in Brown’s letter sent that amount?

    Snip.

    The “Unarranged” file contained letter after letter with details I knew I could use. And in other folders I came across letters in which that same amount was mentioned: for example, from E. S. Fentress, who was the partner of Johnson’s patron, Charles Marsh. I knew that one of the biggest and the most politically astute of the oilmen was Sid Richardson. I looked under the name “Richardson” in file folder after file folder in different collections, without any luck. What was the name of that nephew of his whom Richardson, unmarried and childless, allowed to transact some of his business affairs? I had heard it somewhere. What was it? Bass, Perry Bass. I found that name and the donation—“Perry R. Bass, $5,000”—in yet another box in the House papers.

    Letters from many big Texas oilmen of the nineteen-forties—who needed guarantees that Congress wouldn’t take away the oil-depletion allowance, and that other, more arcane tax breaks conferred by the federal government wouldn’t be touched—were scattered through those boxes. And all the contributions were for five thousand dollars. Of course, they must be. I suddenly remembered what I should have remembered earlier. Under federal law in 1940, the limit on an individual contribution was five thousand dollars. How could I have been so slow to get it? Well, I got it now. The Brown & Root contribution to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, funnelled through the company’s business associates, had been thirty thousand dollars, a substantial amount in the politics of that era, and, in fact, more money than the committee had received from the D.N.C., its parent organization. And there were so many additional five-thousand-dollar contributions from Texas!

    But there was a next question: how had this money resulted in such a great change in Lyndon Johnson’s status in Congress? How had he transmuted those contributions into power for himself? He had had no title or formal position with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; he had tried to get one, I had learned from other files, but had been rebuffed.

    I found the answer in those LBJA files. He had had George Brown instruct each of the Brown & Root contributors, and had had the other Texas contributors instructed similarly, to enclose with their checks a letter stating, “I would like for this money to be expended in connection with the campaign of Democratic candidates for Congress as per the list attached.” Johnson had, of course, compiled the list, and, while the checks received by the lucky candidates might have been issued by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, each candidate received a telegram from Johnson, saying that the check had been sent “AS RESULT MY VISIT TO CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE FEW MINUTES AGO.”

    The secret to Lyndon Baines Johnson’s rise was powerful patrons, Texas oil money, and campaign finance bundling…in 1940.

    Read the whole thing. Including the part where Caro and his wife move to the Texas hill country for three years to get the real story about Johnson’s past.

    I began to hear the details they had not included in the anecdotes they had previously told me, and they told me anecdotes and stories that no one had even mentioned to me before—stories about a Lyndon Johnson very different from the young man who had previously been portrayed: about a very unusual young man, a very brilliant young man, a very ambitious, unscrupulous, and quite ruthless person, disliked and even despised, and, by people who knew him especially well, even beginning to be feared.

    (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)

    And if you’re interested in Caro’s LBJ books, here are the Amazon links:

  • The Path to Power
  • Means of Ascent
  • Master Of The Senate
  • The Passage of Power
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 21, 2019

    Monday, January 21st, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: Lots climbing in, one getting out. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and California Senator Kamala Harris are both In and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. JR. is Out. Plus a few more no-hope longshots considering a run.

    Before we get to the individual candidates, here’s a table from that January 14 Marist poll on Democratic contenders:

    Usual poll caveats apply, but Biden has a huge advantage over the rest of the field in both favorability and name recognition. And for all the Betomania among the chattering classes, the majority of possible Democratic voters have never even heard of him. Highest unfavorables are Bernie Sanders (bitter Hillary cadres at work there) and Michael Bloomberg. In fact, Bloomberg is alone in having a net favorability rating of zero.

    538 offers up speculation on how longshot Democrats could potentially build a winning coalition, with pentagonal diagrams that look vaguely like cutaways of a Wankel rotary engine. They’re also doing a similar weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings that I only noticed when I was about 80% through this post.

    Oh, and National Review says all the Democratic candidates suck.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out, considering a senate run instead.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Addition: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Considering a run. Bennet told Colorado Public Radio he was seriously considering a run, and just changed his Twitter handle from “BennetForCO” to “MichaelBennet.”
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. His completely-devoid-of-interest Twitter feed. There was talk of Biden announcing on Tuesday, but he also has an event in Grand Prairie, Texas on Thursday. Chris Smith at Vanity Fair says Biden is the sell high candidate. Since this comes from Vanity Fair, my working assumption is that it must be wrong…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he’s not too old to run (the same age as Bernie Sanders). That National Review piece says “He doesn’t mesh with the Democratic party we see every day in the national media, but he’s intelligent, shrewd, and willing to spend more money than Croesus on securing the nomination and defeating Trump. Only a fool would dismiss him.”
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. He picked up the all-important Jimmy Carter endorsement. This is two Democratic Presidential Clown Car updates in a row I’ve mentioned Jimmy Carter. I’m not such which of the seven seals that opens.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting a bunch of early primary states, including Iowa.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in. Has a Facebook page. This week he got a fawning Washington Post profile.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out. “After two months of considering it, I have concluded that the best way for me to fight for the America that so many of us believe in is to stay in the U.S. Senate and not run for the presidency in 2020.”
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Campaigning in New Hampshire, he says he would not pardon Trump. Also promises not to punch out Mike Tyson.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue. Beautiful plumage…
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He’s sure acting like he’s running. “People who criticize de Blasio for being more interested in national politics than the local scene aren’t wrong.” Translation: As Mayor, he sucks!
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. Has raised nearly $5 million. I misspelled his name “Delany” last week and nobody noticed. Want to know his views on Israel? I didn’t think so, but here they are anyway.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter feed. Howard Dean says she’s not qualified to be President. And if anyone knows about not being qualified to be President…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but it’s sort of hard to run for president when you have to deal with a teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. Ended 2018 with over $10 million in her campaign bank account.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She announced today, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, as befitting the MSM favorite they hope can re-knit the Obama coalition. The New York Times piece says the date was also meant to evoke Shirley Chisholm, the black Democratic congressman who ran for President in 1972, which suggests that Harris will come in 7th against a nominee who eventually loses 49 states to Trump. Evidently she’s leaning toward Crack Charm City as her headquarters. National Review has “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Kamala Harris,” including her being Willie Brown’s mistress, and her anti-civil liberties stance on things like linking collected DNA evidence to family members and charging the parents of truant kids.
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. No real news, so enjoy the delusional fantasy of two USA Today writers calling for a Hickenlooper-Kaisch national unity ticket. I’m sure the notion was very well-received down at the coffee shop nearest the shuttered offices of The Weekly Standard.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter feed. Here he is yammering about climate change in the Washington Post.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In, playing “the family wants me to run” card.
  • New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Because we just haven’t had enough of the Clintons…
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. Right now he’s making “Fundraising is hard!” sounds. Most recently seen banging the impeachment drum over that Buzzfeed fake Russian collusion “bombshell.”
  • Addition: Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Because there just weren’t enough longshot congressmen on this list to update before.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Says he’s hitting the road because he’s “in a funk,” and I’m presuming it’s not the James Brown kind. Between this and the Instagram dentist visit, I’m wondering if O’Rouke is going to be the presidential candidate equivalent of The Woman Who Overshares Her Depression On Facebook Fishing For Sympathy, because that would be both really sad and weirdly hilarious. An Oprah interview looms next month.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. He’s in South Carolina for MLK weekend. I think Bernie likes the attention of running for President too much to stop.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Still considering.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter feed. She’s also visiting South Carolina.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.
  • Last week I linked to a prediction market website that had Democratic presidential odds. Last week O’Rourke was on top. This week he’s been eclipsed by Harris. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:

    1. Kamala Harris
    2. Beto O’Rourke
    3. Joe Biden
    4. Bernie Sanders
    5. Elizabeth Warren

    Two Essays: Workers Vs Elites

    Thursday, January 17th, 2019

    Here are two pretty interesting essays on the “revolt of the masses” currently roiling world politics.

    The first is from Christopher Caldwell about France from two years ago, and which prefigures the “yellow vest” riots:

    In France, a real-estate expert has done something almost as improbable. Christophe Guilluy calls himself a geographer. But he has spent decades as a housing consultant in various rapidly changing neighborhoods north of Paris, studying gentrification, among other things. And he has crafted a convincing narrative tying together France’s various social problems—immigration tensions, inequality, deindustrialization, economic decline, ethnic conflict, and the rise of populist parties.

    Snip.

    A process that Guilluy calls métropolisation has cut French society in two. In 16 dynamic urban areas (Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Aix-en-Provence, Toulouse, Lille, Bordeaux, Nice, Nantes, Strasbourg, Grenoble, Rennes, Rouen, Toulon, Douai-Lens, and Montpellier), the world’s resources have proved a profitable complement to those found in France. These urban areas are home to all the country’s educational and financial institutions, as well as almost all its corporations and the many well-paying jobs that go with them. Here, too, are the individuals—the entrepreneurs and engineers and CEOs, the fashion designers and models, the film directors and chefs and other “symbolic analysts,” as Robert Reich once called them—who shape the country’s tastes, form its opinions, and renew its prestige. Cheap labor, tariff-free consumer goods, and new markets of billions of people have made globalization a windfall for such prosperous places. But globalization has had no such galvanizing effect on the rest of France. Cities that were lively for hundreds of years—Tarbes, Agen, Albi, Béziers—are now, to use Guilluy’s word, “desertified,” haunted by the empty storefronts and blighted downtowns that Rust Belt Americans know well.

    Guilluy doubts that anyplace exists in France’s new economy for working people as we’ve traditionally understood them. Paris offers the most striking case. As it has prospered, the City of Light has stratified, resembling, in this regard, London or American cities such as New York and San Francisco. It’s a place for millionaires, immigrants, tourists, and the young, with no room for the median Frenchman. Paris now drives out the people once thought of as synonymous with the city.

    Yet economic opportunities for those unable to prosper in Paris are lacking elsewhere in France. Journalists and politicians assume that the stratification of France’s flourishing metropoles results from a glitch in the workings of globalization. Somehow, the rich parts of France have failed to impart their magical formula to the poor ones. Fixing the problem, at least for certain politicians and policy experts, involves coming up with a clever shortcut: perhaps, say, if Romorantin had free wireless, its citizens would soon find themselves wealthy, too. Guilluy disagrees. For him, there’s no reason to expect that Paris (and France’s other dynamic spots) will generate a new middle class or to assume that broad-based prosperity will develop elsewhere in the country (which happens to be where the majority of the population live). If he is right, we can understand why every major Western country has seen the rise of political movements taking aim at the present system.

    Snip.

    After the mid-twentieth century, the French state built a vast stock—about 5 million units—of public housing, which now accounts for a sixth of the country’s households. Much of it is hideous-looking, but it’s all more or less affordable. Its purpose has changed, however. It is now used primarily for billeting not native French workers, as once was the case, but immigrants and their descendants, millions of whom arrived from North Africa starting in the 1960s, with yet another wave of newcomers from sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East arriving today. In the rough northern suburb of Aubervilliers, for instance, three-quarters of the young people are of immigrant background. Again, Paris’s future seems visible in contemporary London. Between 2001 and 2011, the population of white Londoners fell by 600,000, even as the city grew by 1 million people: from 58 percent white British at the turn of the century, London is currently 45 percent white.

    While rich Parisians may not miss the presence of the middle class, they do need people to bus tables, trim shrubbery, watch babies, and change bedpans. Immigrants—not native French workers—do most of these jobs. Why this should be so is an economic controversy. Perhaps migrants will do certain tasks that French people will not—at least not at the prevailing wage. Perhaps employers don’t relish paying €10 an hour to a native Frenchman who, ten years earlier, was making €20 in his old position and has resentments to match. Perhaps the current situation is an example of the economic law named after the eighteenth-century French economist Jean-Baptiste Say: a huge supply of menial labor from the developing world has created its own demand.

    Snip.

    Guilluy has written much about how little contact the abstract doctrines of “diversity” and “multiculturalism” make with this morally complex world. In the neighborhoods, well-meaning people of all backgrounds “need to manage, day in, day out, a thousand and one ethno-cultural questions while trying not to get caught up in hatred and violence.” Last winter, he told the magazine Causeur:

    Unlike our parents in the 1960s, we live in a multicultural society, a society in which “the other” doesn’t become “somebody like yourself.” And when “the other” doesn’t become “somebody like yourself,” you constantly need to ask yourself how many of the other there are—whether in your neighborhood or your apartment building. Because nobody wants to be a minority.

    Thus, when 70 percent of Frenchmen tell pollsters, as they have for years now, that “too many foreigners” live in France, they’re not necessarily being racist; but they’re not necessarily not being racist, either. It’s a complicated sentiment, and identifying “good” and “bad” strands of it—the better to draw them apart—is getting harder to do.

    France’s most dangerous political battles play out against this backdrop. The central fact is the 70 percent that we just spoke of: they oppose immigration and are worried, we can safely assume, about the prospects for a multiethnic society. Their wishes are consistent, their passions high; and a democracy is supposed to translate the wishes and passions of the people into government action. Yet that hasn’t happened in France.

    Guilluy breaks down public opinion on immigration by class. Top executives (at 54 percent) are content with the current number of migrants in France. But only 38 percent of mid-level professionals, 27 percent of laborers, and 23 percent of clerical workers feel similarly. As for the migrants themselves (whose views are seldom taken into account in French immigration discussions), living in Paris instead of Bamako is a windfall even under the worst of circumstances. In certain respects, migrants actually have it better than natives, Guilluy stresses. He is not referring to affirmative action. Inhabitants of government-designated “sensitive urban zones” (ZUS) do receive special benefits these days. But since the French cherish equality of citizenship as a political ideal, racial preferences in hiring and education took much longer to be imposed than in other countries. They’ve been operational for little more than a decade. A more important advantage, as geographer Guilluy sees it, is that immigrants living in the urban slums, despite appearances, remain “in the arena.” They are near public transportation, schools, and a real job market that might have hundreds of thousands of vacancies. At a time when rural France is getting more sedentary, the ZUS are the places in France that enjoy the most residential mobility: it’s better in the banlieues.

    Read the whole thing.

    There are also some related thoughts on the elite/worker divide from Instapundit Glenn Reynolds:

    In the old Soviet Union, the Marxists assured us that once true communism was established under a “dictatorship of the proletariat,” the state would wither away and everyone would be free. In fact, however, the dictatorship of the proletariat turned into a dictatorship of the party hacks, who had no interest whatsoever in seeing their positions or power wither.

    Yugoslav dissident Milovan Djilas called these party hacks the “New Class,” noting that instead of workers and peasants against capitalists, it was now a case of workers and peasants being ruled by a managerial new class of technocrats who, while purporting to act for the benefit of the workers and peasants, somehow wound up with the lion’s share of the goodies. Workers and peasants stood in long lines for bread and shoddy household goods, while party leaders and government managers bought imported delicacies in special, secret stores. (In a famous Soviet joke, then-leader Leonid Brezhnev shows his mother his luxury apartment, his limousine, his fancy country house and his helicopter only to have her object: “But what if the communists come back?”)

    Djilas’ work was explosive — he was jailed — because it made clear that the workers and peasants had simply replaced one class of exploiters with another. It set the stage for the Soviet Union’s implosion, and for the discrediting of communism among everyone with any sense.

    But the New Class isn’t limited to communist countries, really. Around the world in the postwar era, power was taken up by unelected professional and managerial elites. To understand what’s going on with President Donald Trump and his opposition, and in other countries as diverse as France, Hungary, Italy and Brazil, it’s important to realize that the post-World War II institutional arrangements of the Western democracies are being renegotiated, and that those democracies’ professional and managerial elites don’t like that very much, because they have done very well under those arrangements. And, like all elites who are doing very well, they don’t want that to change.

    Snip.

    But after the turn of the millennium, other Americans, much like the workers and peasants in the old Soviet Union, started to notice that while the New Class was doing quite well (America’s richest counties now surround Washington, D.C.), things weren’t going so well for them. And what made it more upsetting was that — while the Soviet Union’s apparatchiks at least pretended to like the workers and peasants — members of America’s ruling class seemed to view ordinary Americans with something like contempt, using terms such as “bitter clingers,” “deplorables” and flyover people.

    Suddenly, to a lot of voters, those postwar institutional arrangements stopped looking so good. But, of course, the beneficiaries showed no sign of giving them up. This has led to a lot of political discord, and a lot of culture war, since in America class warfare is usually disguised as cultural warfare. But underneath the surface, talk is a battle between the New Class and what used to be the middle class.

    Both essays are well worth your attention.

    Democratic Presidential Race Clown Car Update for January 14, 2019

    Monday, January 14th, 2019

    More Presidential race news popping up left and right, mainly that Tulsi Gabbard and Julian Castro are both officially In, Tom Steyer is Out, and that some of the people I had down as probably out are already grubbing for money and hiring staffers. I’ve also started adding campaign websites where known.

    No more categories, just a long, long, long list of candidates. Climb in the clown car, aspiring candidates! It will be a year or so before voters start tossing you out…

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Doubtful.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. “Joe Biden has told some top Democrats that he’s running for president, Axios reported Saturday. The former vice president even set Tuesday as a likely announcement date.” Presumably the Trans-Am is suitably waxed…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he can self-fund and will decide in the next couple of months.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. Making noises about protecting his left flank.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Not seeing any signs yet.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting Iowa, which suggests he’s in…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Maybe, leaning toward out. Hearing a lot of boilerplate waffling right now.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward in, and reportedly reaching out to potential staffers in Iowa.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in, but who cares. Has a Facebook page.
  • Former President Jimmy Carter: Not Running. Look, he actually commented on it. I’m just putting this in here to see if you’re awake…
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Here’s coverage of his announcement and his official website.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not, despite the fact that she just will not shut up. Other candidates are reportedly seeking her blessing, presumably with the soundtrack to The Godfather playing in the background.
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He announced he hadn’t ruled out a run. I can see his campaign being boosted by New Yorkers who feel his absence from the city can only improve municipal governance. An upgrade from “All But Out.”
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delany: In. Has raised nearly $5 million.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Official website. This piece on why parts of the hard left hate Gabbard, which seems to boil down to “she doesn’t hate Trump enough and was prematurely pro-Syrian pullout, as well as being pro-Bernie,” though I would take the geopolitical analysis with several grains of salt. I like her chances better than Elizabeth Warren, and she’s much prettier than Kamala Harris. And she just received her first hit piece from the left. Someone obviously considers her a threat…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but I’m not hearing much buzz.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: Probably In. She’s staffing up for a run. An upgrade over Probably Out.
  • Former Vice President Al Gore: No signs of a run.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: All but in.
  • Outgoing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Has been meeting with donors, along with…
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably not.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. It would cut into his wind-surfing.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Still considering a run.
  • New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Conflicting reports as to whether he’ll run, and one commenter on the last roundup mentioned him. Arguing for no: Ask anyone “What do you love about New Orleans?” and not one person will reply “The honest, efficient governance!”
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Another guy looking around for money.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sure looks like he’s running. And it sure looks like nobody cares.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Oprah is interviewing him in Times Square next month. Golly, sounds like the perfect time to announce a run, doesn’t it?
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? All the buzz seems to be from the middle of last year; nothing recent.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out. Added to the list just to subtract him…
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Probably running. Visiting South Carolina, an early primary state.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. It’s a tough call whether she or Kamala Harris are more pissed about Tulsi Gabbard entering the race.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Probably not running.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.
  • You can see odds on the usual suspects as well as all sorts of unlikely people running. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:

    1. Beto O’Rourke
    2. Kamala Harris
    3. Joe Biden
    4. Bernie Sanders
    5. Elizabeth Warren

    I think those are more realistic than that Daily Kos poll.

    Any serious potential candidates I’m missing?

    Daily Kos: Man, We Sure Love Us Some Old White Heterosexual Millionaires!

    Wednesday, January 9th, 2019

    Lefty site DailyKos has released their first Presidential straw poll of 2019. Results?


    ELIZABETH WARREN 22%
    BETO O’ROURKE 15
    KAMALA HARRIS 14
    JOE BIDEN 14
    BERNIE SANDERS 11
    UNSURE 9
    OTHER 9
    CORY BOOKER 3
    JULIAN CASTRO 1
    KRISTEN GILLIBRAND 1

    So: Of their top five choices, all are straight, four are white millionaires, three are men, three will be over the age of 71 on January 20, 2021, two will be 78 or older, and none are Hispanic.

    The outliers are Kamala Harris, 55, with a net worth of $3,310,537 (a neat trick for someone who has been continuously in government positions since 1990), and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, 46, with an estimated worth of only $9 million. (Forbes wants us to know that his father-in-law, William Sanders, is probably only worth a mere $500 million. Also, as far as I can tell, William Sanders is not related to Bernie Sanders.)

    The low ranking of Bernie Sanders may be a surprise to those who don’t follow every twist and turn of leftwing politics, but Kos deliberately drove out the Bernie Brigades in 2016 for the high crime of complaining about Hillary rigging the primary.

    So too is the high standing of Warren, whose “Hey, I’m just a common person drinking beer” Instagram video drew such ridicule, surprising.

    For all that Democrats swear up and down they’re the party of “people of color,” and the heavy influence of SJW “intersectionality” on the party’s rhetoric, four out of their top five Presidential candidates sure don’t show it.

    Maybe the real driver of the Democratic Party isn’t intersectionality, but middle-aged feminists looking for the next Hillary. (And maybe the young feminists find O’Rourke “dreamy.”)

    Or maybe I just don’t know enough about Daily Kos biases relative to the rest of the left in 2019. 2016 showed that lots of accepted wisdom about who shows up to vote for who in presidential election primaries was wrong.

    Or maybe straw polls this far out are simply meaningless. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson were mopping up straw poll victories back in 2015…