Every now and then a story comes along that you see isn’t quite right, and you correct it, knowing the correction will please absolutely no one, because truth is truth. This is one of those cases.
Sometimes, you have to be this guy.
In this case the subject is New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof’s absurd contention that Israelis train dogs to rape Palestinians. Everyone and their dog (oops) has already piled on the absurdity of the claim and just how devoid of supporting evidence Kristof’s piece was, with even New York Times reporters saying they’re embarrassed by it.
That’s not what I want to talk about.
Many pieces have gone on to cite ludicrous Palestinian claims of all sorts of trained animals working for Israel, like in this piece from The Hill:
In 2015, the BBC published the ludicrous claim that Hamas had seized an “Israeli spy dolphin” off the Gaza coast. Earlier, CNN had publicized Sudanese claims that it had captured an Israeli “spy vulture” on a reconnaissance mission. The BBC also ran a headline in 2010 titled “Shark attacks not linked to Mossad says Israel” and the Telegraph reported “Shark ‘sent to Egypt by Mossad.’”
Tiny problem: The idea that Israel is training spy dolphins is not, in fact, ludicrous, because the U.S. Navy does it.
Back when the Navy dolphin program was a hush hush secret, a friend told me about it, saying they would never send a dolphin on a mission where it was likely to get killed because it took several million each to train them. “They’ll just send a diver instead.” He also said that once some Greenpeace types has cut through the underwater retaining fence to free the dolphins, but the dolphins simply swam right back because of how well they were fed in the program.
The Reconnaissance and Interdiction Division at NIWC Pacific manages the Navy’s Marine Mammal Program which trains bottlenose dolphins and California sea lions to detect, locate, mark and recover objects in harbors, coastal areas, and at depth in the open sea.
Everyone is familiar with security patrol dogs, and how some service dogs use their keen sense of smell to detect explosives on land. Since 1959, the U.S. Navy has trained dolphins and sea lions as teammates for our Sailors and Marines to help guard against similar threats underwater. The Navy’s Marine Mammal Program has been homeported on Point Loma since the 1960’s.
Now, I have no idea whether the Israelis train spy dolphins or not. It may not be cost-effective, since there are a lot more limited uses for them considering the regional threat domains they face. But the idea that the Israelis are training spy dolphins is neither “ludicrous” nor far-fetched.
Doesn’t mean Hamas captured one in 2015, since those Jihadi idiots lie about everything, but it’s definitely within the realm of possibility.
When else will I have a chance to generate a meme this obscure?
Tomorrow should see a return of non-Ackchyually content…
Taking a look at the activity in the Strait or Hormuz, it looks like our mostly peaceful pause is at an end and things are about to get kinetic again. Looking at the Iran Livemap, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has resumed attacking both shipping and its neighbors.
Some incident entries:
“A South Korean vessel has reportedly been hit by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Explosions near US bases in the UAE.”
“Once again UAE air defenses are dealing with a missile threat.”
“A missile attack on an ADNOC oil tanker in one of the UAE’s ports.”
“Flights in the United Arab Emirates have been suspended.”
“CENTCOM: U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.”
“UKMTO reports an incident 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, United Arab Emirates.”
“IRGC spokesperson says vessels violating regulations announced by Guards in Strait of Hormuz ‘will be stopped by force.'”
It appears the IRCG regards Trump’s slow economic strangulation via blockade as a bigger threat to their tenuous hold on power than American and Israel bombs falling on them. They’re probably correct in that assumption. The operational pause has allowed U.S. and Israeli forces to resupply and rearm, and I suspect we’ll soon see what military and regime assets are left to hit.
This is very much an in-progress post put up before the big fireworks kick off again.
Something a little different than the usual Iran roundup: Two videos about Kharg Island, one an after-action report on a U.S. attack run, the other a description of what makes taking the island difficult.
The caveat for the after-action video, a recreation of an actual U.S. attack run, is that it’s done a breathless, overly-dramatic fashion, like something from Most Shocking. But the detailed, blow-by-blow account suggests it was taken from actual after-action reports.
Three B-1B Lancers carrying precision-guided bombs attempted the most surgically demanding strike of Operation Epic Fury — destroying Iranian military targets on Kharg Island without touching the crude oil infrastructure sitting meters away. Then the GPS jamming started, and the mission nearly came apart.
This video reconstructs the full tactical breakdown of the Kharg Island strike: how an Iranian GPS jammer degraded bomb accuracy toward the oil, how the F/A-18 Super Hornets sent to destroy it nearly got hit by friendly JDAMs when a deconfliction failure put them directly in the bomb fall line, and how one Mersad air defense commander’s final radio transmission turned inaccurate anti-aircraft fire into precision-guided shrapnel that bracketed B-1Bs mid-bombing run. We cover the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile shot that eliminated the SAM battery, the burning missile propellant creeping toward thirty million barrels of crude oil, the IRGC patrol boat sprint toward the supertanker loading channel, and the F/A-18 pilots who descended into accurate anti-aircraft fire from guns they couldn’t suppress to stop a mining operation with laser-guided GBU-54 JDAMs.
The breathless nature of the narration makes me suspect that certain aspects have been embellished for dramatic effect.
Next up: Simon Whistler discusses how difficult it will be for the American military to take and hold Kharg Island. Consider it the pessimist case against the operation.
“The value of Kharg Island is obvious. Control the island, and you could throttle Iran’s oil dependent economy. Capture the island intact, and another nation could make Iran do anything to get it back. Destroy it outright and Iran would transform from a powerful rogue nation into an economic afterthought. And that’s if we’re being generous.”
“The export facilities on Kharg Island are the most important site in one of Iran’s most important regions, meaning that the region is especially important to the Iranian military. This is a region with a well-developed civilian infrastructure, a large presence from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, and most likely the hidden weapons stockp match. Then there’s the island itself, a low-lying coral crop with an elevation of just 70m at its highest point. With a land area of roughly 20 square km, Kharg Island is basically flat, basically triangular in shape and surrounded by deep waters to enable the transit of oil tankers.”
Some pre-situated weapons and supply caches will likely survive any American bombardment.
“There’s no telling what the US will destroy and what it’ll fail to pick up on, but some of those mines and air defenses will survive, raising the possibility that they could claim the lives of US troops or shoot down vulnerable non-stalthy low-flying aircraft. That said, Kharg will not be an easy place to defend once US ground forces have established a foothold. Iranians on the island will either be left exposed or be forced to use refinery infrastructure as cover unless they allow themselves to be pushed into the island town where most residents live.”
“Iran’s objective is not victory in any conventional sense. Iran is able to accept the deaths of its political and military leaders and the destruction of its cities and mass casualties among its soldiers, paramilitaries, and civilian supporters. Iran’s focus is on regime survival, not the survival of the people who make up the regime, but the survival of the regime itself.” No, that’s the regime‘s goal. Most ordinary Iranians hate the regime’s guts.
He notes the difficulty of getting amphibious landing ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But America will likely have a screening force of destroyers and frigates in addition to overwhelming air superiority, and Iran probably has very little in the way of missiles that can reach across the strait, at night, without real air assets to spot and paint the target, in the face of American air and naval superiority. Given America and Israel’s attacks on their sensor and communication infrastructure, I also doubt the Iranian military is capable of efficient coordination and dissemination of any real-time information they may be receiving from Russian or Chinese satellites.
He’s still right that amphibious and aerial invasions are exceptionally difficult and fraught with peril.
But I believe there are multiple places where Whistler is unduly pessimistic about such an operation.
First and foremost, the military assets discussed in the media are not necessarily the assets such an operation would be limited to. Remember how the very public news of B-2s in route to Diego Garcia was a ruse to cover the fact that the real B-2 force was already headed to the target in the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It’s entirely possible (even probable) that America already has assault assets in theater that media outlets don’t know about.
Some debatable assertions: “Iranian forces are nothing if not creative, and they are highly motivated to accept risk to their own lives in order to deliver damage to an adversary.” And “The first problem that the US would have to account for is the Iranian ground forces. Combination of roughly 350,000 soldiers in the Iranian army, about 150,000 soldiers across the ground forces of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and another several hundred thousand paramilitary fighters of the Basij Resistance Force.” Whistler suggests virtues not necessarily in evidence for Iran’s forces. The IRCG has certainly shown itself highly motivated when it comes to launching terror rockets, supporting insurgencies, or slaughtering civilians, but not so much when it comes to an actual toe-to-toe fight against a real military, a domain in which they have zero experience or demonstrated competency. Likewise, there’s little evidence that Iranian military regulars are all that keen to die for the regime. They also did not notably distinguish themselves in the long, bloody slog of the Iran-Iraq War, a stalemate against an Iraqi military that the United States-led coalition would quickly and comprehensively dismantle in the Gulf War a few years later. And back then, Iran had some relatively modern air power. Likewise the Basij seem well equipped to beat defenseless women for immodesty, but I rather strongly suspect the overwhelming majority will cut and run when faced with trained soldiers who can fire back.
If America successfully takes Kharg Island, it will be impossible for Iranian forces to get ships across from the mainland to retake it in the teeth of overwhelming American air power, even if they try crossing at night.
Likewise, the difficulty in taking the island without damaging the critical oil infrastructure that makes it worth taking may cause Iran to avoid their usual inaccurate missile barrages. And Iranian forces will likely find it difficult to set up missile, artillery and drone systems on the coastline under withering American and Israeli attack.
“The American public is not willing to accept the loss of American troops, and it is not willing to accept long-term or severe economic pain just to see the Islamic Republic overthrown.” This assertion is not necessarily true. The American public can certainly be fickle, but thus far Astroturf protests against the war have modest and populated with the usual foreign-funded, elderly white lefty idiots. Americans over a certain age remember the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and may feel eliminating one of they key sources of jihad terror worldwide for good worth the cost. Also, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, U.S. military and civilian leadership seems 100% dedicated to absolute victory.
Whistler seems to think that all of Iran’s military forces will fight with the same fanaticism of Imperial Japanese troops on Iwo Jima. Given how badly the regular armies of Muslim nations have fought against first world armies in standup fights, as opposed to fanatical insurgencies running year-long campaigns of attrition, I rather strongly suspect he’s mistaken.
U.S. forces pass the 5,500 targets mark, the regime starts emptying the bank accounts of citizens to stay afloat, China’s weapons are (still) garbage, more Iranian planes cratered on runways, a tanker burns off Iraq, Weekend at Mojtaba’s, and the idea that our troops in harm’s way might be eating well enrages the Democrat Media Complex.
CENTCOM operations briefing:
“Every day, we’re striking hard at Iranian ballistic missile and drones. To date, we have struck more than 5,500 targets inside Iran including more than 60 ships using a variety of precision weapon systems.”
“Since the first 24 hours of this campaign, Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks have dropped drastically but it’s worth pointing out that Iranian forces continue to deliberately target innocent civilians in Gulf countries while hiding behind their own people as they launch attacks from highly populated cities in Iran.”
“Our warfighters are leveraging a variety of advanced AI tools. These systems help us sift through vast amounts of data in seconds, so our leaders can cut through the noise and make smarter decisions faster than the enemy can react. Humans will always make final decisions on what to shoot and what not to shoot and when to shoot, but advanced AI tools can turn processes that used to take hours and sometimes even days into seconds.
Note that YouTube’s auto-translate function renders Operation Epic Fury as “Operation Epicure,” so if you see that somewhere in any Iran reports, you know someone was asleep at the switch…
Iran’s attacks targeting radars and other missile defense equipment in the Gulf have not achieved the regime’s objective of degrading air defenses enough to reliably penetrate them. Interception rates of ballistic missiles have not changed significantly.
Iran likely seeks to preserve the option to threaten, disrupt, and selectively control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz without fully halting Iranian crude exports that still rely on the waterway by mining it heavily.
The combined force continues to target several key internal security sites in Tehran City and Kurdish-populated areas in northwestern Iran. An open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst reported that the combined force struck several internal security sites in Marivan City, Kurdistan Province, which is about 10 miles east of the Iran-Iraq border in northwestern Iran. Marivan City and other mountainous cities in Kurdistan Province are hotspots for anti-regime protests and clashes between Iranian security forces and Kurdish anti-regime groups.
Russia is reportedly sharing advanced drone tactics with Iran to support Iranian attacks against US forces and assets in the Middle East, which highlights deepening cooperation between key US adversaries. The CNN report comes after three unspecified officials told the Washington Post on March 6 that Russia has provided Iran with the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, since the war started on February 28.
China continues to supply Iran with precursors for solid fuel to support Iran’s ballistic missile program. An OSINT analyst reported on March 11 that the Iranian cargo vessel Barzin departed Gaolan Port in China, likely carrying a shipment of missile fuel precursors, and is now en route to Iran.
Some elements of Hezbollah’s political support appear to be fracturing due to Hezbollah’s participation in the war. Hezbollah ally, the Amal Movement, recently voted in favor of the Lebanese cabinet’s decision to ban Hezbollah’s military activity. The Amal Movement has been Hezbollah’s key political and strategic ally since 2005.
Not a lot new there if you’ve been following along here.
Has the regime run out of money and just started stealing?
The Iranian Mullah Regime cannot meet the payroll of the Regime Security Forces…
…so, it is stealing the next payroll from everyone else.
Food security issues started the last Iranian mass insurrection. The Mullah Regime just lit the short fuze for the next one. https://t.co/xIIQaxfTWe
Coalition air power continues to pound the greater Tehran area:
Iran got $5 billion in Chinese MilTech that proved absolutely worthless:
And it changes EVERYTHING about who's really fighting this war.
🚨 CHINA SECRETLY ARMED IRAN WITH $5 BILLION IN WEAPONS →EVERY SINGLE ONE FAILED 🚨
A secret oil-for-weapons deal between China and Iran has been exposed by Reuters. Beijing raided its own People's Liberation Army… pic.twitter.com/nesaOtWeKt
CHINA SECRETLY ARMED IRAN WITH $5 BILLION IN WEAPONS →EVERY SINGLE ONE FAILED 🚨
A secret oil-for-weapons deal between China and Iran has been exposed by Reuters. Beijing raided its own People’s Liberation Army inventory to fast-track delivery before the war started.
$5 BILLION. Pulled from China’s own military stockpile.
WHAT HAPPENED:
→ US-Israeli strikes destroyed the ENTIRE stockpile on DAY ONE
→ CM-302 missiles launched at US Navy – ZERO hits
→ Some malfunctioned mid-flight. Others intercepted by SM-3 and SM-6
→ 100% failure rate. Not a single US warship scratched.
💀 China’s “world’s best anti-ship missile” = couldn’t hit a destroyer
💀 CM-302 has NO data link, NO satellite guidance, NO active terminal tracking
💀 Once launched it flies BLIND — and the US Navy knew it
💀 $5 BILLION in Chinese weapons = DESTROYED in hours
⚠️ China denied the deal publicly. Reuters confirmed it.
⚠️ This violates the UN weapons embargo reimposed last September
⚠️ China pulled weapons from its OWN military – meaning its Pacific fleet is now WEAKER
They’re showing you Iran’s missile launches and calling it a threat.
They’re NOT showing you that China armed Iran with its best weapons → and they ALL failed against American destroyers.
You don’t secretly arm a country with $5 billion in weapons from your own military unless you’re betting on them winning. China bet everything on Iran. And lost.
Oil terminals at Iraqi ports on Thursday said they have suspended operations following attacks on tankers near its waters, according to Iraqi authorities cited by state media.
Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the state-owned General Company for Ports of Iraq (GCPI), said was quoted by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) as saying, “The operation of oil ports has been suspended, commercial ports continue operations.”
Ships remain in the waiting area, and loading and unloading are ongoing at the North and South Um Qasr ports, the INA reported.
This decision, the news outlet reported, was taken after a tanker loaded with petroleum products – supplied by the Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) to the Iraqi Oil Tankers Company, “was involved in an incident”.
Al-Fartousi said that the vessel was carrying a fuel supply tank in the Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfer area and was in the process of loading when it was hit by an explosion. He added that “one of the smaller tankers involved flies the Maltese flag.”
SOMO is Iraq’s national company responsible for marketing and exporting the country’s crude oil and fuel oil. Headquartered in Baghdad, it manages sales to international buyers.
As per the Iraqi News Agency, rescue teams from the company, in coordination with naval units in the SDS area, recovered 38 people, including one confirmed dead. Specialized firefighting tugs from Basra Oil Port were deployed to extinguish fires on both vessels, while search-and-rescue teams continue to look for missing crew members.
There’s video:
The US loses a KC-135 refueling tanker over Iraq, evidently due to an aerial collision with another friendly aircraft (which landed safely). Rescue efforts “ongoing.”
“An SAS base in Iraq was hit by a barrage of drones last night as top UK generals confirmed that Russia was ‘definitely’ helping Iran.”
I have to give leftists and Democrats some credit because they put in no effort to conceal their true feelings, objectives, or that their hatred for President Donald Trump blinds them.
They lost their minds when data showed that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth spent a lot of money to improve the lives of the military.
They latched onto the $20 million spent on steaks, lobster tails, and crab legs.
How Pete Hegseth spent taxpayer funds:
$225 million for furniture
$15.1 million for ribeye steak
$6.9 million on lobster tail
$5.3 million for new Apple devices
$2 million for Alaskan king crab
$139,224 on donuts
$124,000 for ice cream machines
$98,329 for a grand piano
— Melanie D’Arrigo (@DarrigoMelanie) March 10, 2026
Snip.
Also, who is “they?”
Didn’t Congress allocate the money for the Defense Department?
What does the allocated money have to do with healthcare costs, SNAP, and other services that do not fall under the defense budget?
Am I missing something here? Doesn’t Congress have to approve the budgets? How did the “they” cut those costs?
If Congress doesn’t want the military to eat well, have treats, and have a better life while serving, then maybe don’t hand the department billions.
More on that subject via Stephen Green at Instapundit:
I've heard Democrats complain more loudly about our soldiers being well fed than about fraud in California or Minnesota. They sure do have their priorities. They seem to only be upset about the military spending because they'd prefer the lobster and steak to go to illegal aliens.
As usually, this is just what I was able to collect from various sources. If you think I’ve missed anything important, feel free to share it in comments below.
Iranian ships reportedly laying mines go boom, as does another suspected Iranian nuclear site, Iran hits Jordan and Iraq, the Israelis dirtnap more Basij, VDH weighs in, the Saudis are buying Ukrainian MilTech, and a quick guide to drones.
Another day, another 429 error. This one cleared up while I was out riding my bicycle (which broke).
US forces obliterated several Iranian navy vessels — including 16 minelayers — near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday as President Trump warned the Islamic Republic against planting explosives along the critical global trade route.
The strikes came amid reports that Iran had already begun laying mines along the vital shipping lane — which carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply — despite Trump’s demands that it remain open and unaffected as tensions with the US and Israel escalate.
Trump himself doesn’t sound sure mines were actually laid: “If Iran has put any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”
And the video compilation of those same boats going boom:
Among the three cargo vessels that were hit in the strait was a Thai-flagged vessel, which was 11 nautical miles north of Oman. A fire broke out on board and the Royal Thai Navy said the 23 crew members were rescued.
Iran has claimed responsibility, saying the ship’s crew ignored warnings.
The second vessel was a Japanese-flagged container ship that was struck 25 nautical miles off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, sustaining minor damage.
A third cargo vessel was hit about 50 nautical miles north-west of Dubai, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Also: “32 countries voted unanimously to the release of 400 million barrels of oil due to the “unprecedented” situation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced.” Including the U.S. (See below.)
Iran also threatened $200 a barrel oil, which will make them super popular with any country that isn’t Russia.
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday declared it had dismantled most key assets of Iran’s internal security forces in Ilam province, a western region that became a flashpoint during the anti-regime protests that swept the Islamic Republic earlier this year.
Security forces and members of the Basij—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ volunteer militia—”carried out many terror attacks and brutally repressed internal protests during demonstrations that took place across Iran in the December–January period,” the IDF stated.
Since the start of “Operation Roaring Lion” on Feb. 28, Israeli Air Force jets struck the local headquarters of Tehran’s internal security forces, including barracks of a special forces unit; an office of the regime’s Intelligence Ministry; an IRGC command center responsible for battalions that suppress protests; and several Basij and IRGC infrastructures used to reinforce the regime’s control, it said.
The IDF noted that the damage to repression and control mechanisms in the Ilam province, which borders Iraq and has a significant Kurdish population, was just “one example of many” of its recent operations.
The security forces “form part of the Iranian regime’s security apparatus and have for years been responsible for executing terror activities,” said the army, noting that they also lead Tehran’s main “repression efforts against internal protests, particularly in recent periods, using severe violence, mass arrests, and force against civilian demonstrators.”
Israel reportedly hit an Iranian bank. I certainly hope not. We need to seize the records of all Iranian banks to find out what bribes were paid out to Obama and Biden Administration officials…
Until last year, for some 46 years, Iran enjoyed a North Korea-like reputation in the heart of the Middle East: always unpredictable, reckless, dangerous, inevitably to be nuclear, self-destructive, and nihilistic.
All that said, was it really ever all that formidable?
The mullahs came into power after the removal of the Shah and, subsequently, the interim secular socialists. They did so by taking American hostages, murdering opponents, executing former supporters, and transforming the most secular and modern of the Middle East Muslim nations into the most medieval that routinely hung homosexuals, adulterers, and almost anyone who questioned the authority of the ayatollahs. In other words, these were gruesome people, but they didn’t necessarily have a competent military.
The theocracy’s only constant with the prior monarchical Iran was that it inherited near limitless oil and natural gas reserves, sophisticated arms, and the Shah’s modernized cities. It controlled the key strategic chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz and enjoyed a geostrategically critical location between Asia and the Middle East. It fueled Iran’s historical chauvinism and pique that the millennia-long historical preeminence of Middle Eastern Persia was not fully appreciated by its Arab neighbors. So there were lots of natural advantages—and all for the most part squandered.
Under the camouflage of Shiite puritanism and otherworldliness, the ayatollahs proved even more corrupt (and far more incompetent) than the Shah’s entourage. They fought a destructive eight-year war with Saddam Hussein’s overrated Iraqi dictatorship and showed they were mostly just as militarily incompetent.
Over decades, they killed and wounded thousands of Americans by bombing U.S. embassies, barracks, and bases in the Middle East—without directly confronting the American military. For years, they sent lethal shaped charge IEDs to the Shiite insurgents to slaughter and maim thousands of Americans in Iraq and to the Taliban to do the same in Afghanistan.
At the first sign of popular protests, the regime never hesitated to gun down thousands of unarmed protesters. And, of course, they were abject hypocrites—hating the West, damning the Great Satan—and sending their pampered children to universities in America. The apparat proved quite earthly in its desire for money, estates, foreign travel, and the good life.
Their general strategies were never hard to follow.
One, the theocrats’ prior familiarity with Americans under the Shah and in exile in Europe bred an irrational fixation with and hatred of the West in general that made them useful proxies for the grand designs of communist and then later oligarchic Russia, and later ascendant communist China.
Iranian realpolitik alliances with secular communists were based on the quid pro quo of granting Russia and China access to the Gulf, selling oil to China, and buying arms from both.
Two, they were endlessly chagrined that the Persian Shiites had been overshadowed by more populous Sunni Arab neighbors that supposedly lacked their own historical sophistication and more legitimate claims of embodying and speaking for global Islam.
So they would correct that historical travesty by doing their best to mobilize their clients and proxies to bully, isolate, and weaken Arab autocracies, especially those that are pro-Western.
Three, their planned eventual destruction of Israel would ensure that theocratic and Shiite Iran regained its lost prestige and honor by finally accomplishing what the Sunni world had failed to do. By arming murderous clients in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, the West Bank, and Yemen, they fashioned a global network of death that compromised European foreign policy toward the Middle East and terrified Western leaders and many of their Arab neighbors.
Fourth and finally, they sought to diminish the role of the United States in the Muslim world, drive it from the Middle East, and wage a virtual 47-year opportunistic war against American citizens and soldiers, with help from their terrorist surrogates.
Iran’s zenith in power and prestige came during Obama’s presidency (2009–17), and the so-called “Iran Deal” that they believed would guarantee them eventual nuclear power status.
But far more importantly, their massive acquisitions of air, land, and sea weapons and the empowering of terrorists, coupled with their passive-aggressive claims to victimhood, both scared and enticed President Obama into dropping sanctions. Soon, he was apologizing for supposed past sins and nocturnally sending them millions of dollars in Danegeld.
But worse by far, Obama thought he had squared the circle of neutralizing the supposed Middle Eastern Iranian juggernaut by envisioning it as an empathetic victim—and eventual friend if not ally.
Iran was to be rebooted as the Persian and Shiite righteously aggrieved underdog—bullied unfairly by Western imperialists and their surrogate corrupt Arab petro-kingdom clients for its asceticism and courage in fighting the West since its own birth in 1979.
Obama would remedy this “injustice” by bolstering Iran as a counterweight to not just the Sunni Arab world but to Israel itself. The reset would include an American détente with the murderous pro-Iranian Assad regime in Syria, the supposedly benign neglect of Hezbollah’s takeover of Lebanon, and the championing of the “Palestinians,” which de facto had insidiously become indistinct from Hamas terrorists.
Such creative tension between the Iranian Shiite crescent and a diminished Arab world would be adjudicated from time to time by Obama himself, whose America would go from oppressor to ally of the oppressed.
Snip.
In sum, no one apparently realized—with the exception of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu—that beneath its rough, ugly shell, theocratic Iran was rotten and decayed inside. Its corruption and the hatred of its own people ensured that even its huge revenues and sophisticated Chinese and Russian weapons could never translate into a modern, lethal military.
And in summer 2025, the Israelis and Americans first proved that Iran was indeed hollow.
Saudi Arabia is preparing a “major deal” to purchase Ukrainian weapons, according to the Kyiv Independent
One source in the Ukrainian defense industry told the publication that Riyadh and Kyiv are negotiating a separate “huge agreement” for weapons supply, which could be… pic.twitter.com/LxmoipkZOt
Day 10 of the Iran War: Oil spikes then falls, Iran gets a new theoretical Supreme Leader, China’s low cost GPS substitute is just as crappy as their other MilTech, the gulf states are investing in Ukrainian MilTech, and Habitual Linecrosser tries to cut through the fog of war.
He told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, and said the US was “very far ahead of schedule”
Speaking to NBC, he left open the prospect of acquiring Iranian oil, saying “certainly people have talked about it”
In an interview with the New York Post, he said the administration was “nowhere near” making a decision on whether to order US troops into Iran
Speaking to Republican lawmakers, Trump said the US was drawn into a “short-term” military operation in Iran to “get rid of some very evil people”
He went on to say: “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”
Trump told the New York Post he is “not happy” with Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but at his press briefing later did not make clear who he wants to take his place – or how that will be achieved
At his press briefing, Trump reiterated that the operation in Iran has been a “tremendous success”, but also added that he wants to ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weaponry “for a very long time” – a much bigger task
The US still has targets in Iran, Trump tells reporters, but they could be taken out “in one day”
Theoretically, Mojtaba Khamenei survived the leadership airstrike and is now the Iran’s new supreme leader. Maybe, but I wouldn’t put it past the people currently not running the country to announce him as leader even though he’s room temperature so they can continue to keep not running the country without U.S. and Israeli planes sending them to Allah.
“Third Iranian Shahid Soleimani-class Corvette Hit By America: At Bandar Abbas Port.”
The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran has entered a decisive phase that may determine the political future of the Middle East for decades to come.
President Trump declared that there will be no deal with the Iranian regime — nothing short of unconditional surrender. Tehran responded with predictable defiance, announcing that it would never surrender. Yet behind the regime’s rhetoric, reality appears very different.
Much of the leadership now reportedly communicates from undisclosed locations, hiding from sustained strikes while the propaganda machine attempts to project strength and resilience.
The scale of the military campaign has been extraordinary. In the first week alone, the U.S. reportedly struck approximately 3,000 Iranian targets across the country and the region. Israel has launched repeated waves of air strikes — more than twenty separate operations — systematically dismantling the regime’s military infrastructure. Missile launchers, air defense systems, command centers and naval facilities have been destroyed. Advanced weapons systems and new technologies, including next-generation laser defense platforms, are shaping the battlefield.
Israel has reportedly targeted and dismantled hardened command structures associated with the regime’s leadership, including the underground bunker networks linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Several key figures may have been killed in these operations, though the regime has yet to publicly acknowledge casualties buried under the rubble of destroyed facilities.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s military capacity has been devastated. What once appeared to be a formidable regional force increasingly looks like what many analysts suspected all along: a paper tiger built on intimidation, propaganda and bluff.
For decades, the regime invested enormous resources in projecting power across the Middle East, building proxy networks and threatening neighboring states. Now it faces an unprecedented strategic crisis. Today, it is focused primarily on surviving.
The central question confronting policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem is not whether the regime’s military capabilities can be degraded — that process is already underway — but whether the campaign will stop short of dismantling the Islamic Republic itself. Anything short of regime-change risks allowing the system to recover, reorganize and once again threaten regional stability.
The military balance of power favors the U.S. and Israel. Iran’s conventional warfighting capabilities have been severely degraded. Air superiority allows continued targeting of strategic assets, meaning the regime’s ability to project military power beyond its borders will keep declining as long as the campaign persists. In the short run, this places the regime in a defensive posture.
But the weakening of Iran’s military does not automatically translate to the collapse of the regime. The Islamic Republic has historically relied less on conventional military strength and more on asymmetric tools — intelligence networks, ideological mobilization, proxy militias and global terrorism. Even if its missile forces, navy and air defenses are heavily damaged, the regime’s internal security structures — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the domestic Basij security force, intelligence services and propaganda apparatus — can still function. Note that these institutions exist primarily to protect the regime rather than to defend the country.
LUCAS drones (“even cheaper than the Shahed, around $15,000”).
Ship-based anti-drone lasers (cost per kill: 50¢).
Tomahawk
Precision Strike Missile
Evidently American forces have found a way to jam China’s BeiDou system, their version of GPS:
Also, BeiDou seems to include its own text message system, which comes with a lot of drawbacks in an active combat environment…
A document circulating lays out the possibility of a limited campaign for U.S. ground forces to taking over Bandar Abbas and surrounding areas.
It is important to note that the United States does not currently maintain the ground force numbers in the region required for a full-scale invasion of Iran, nor has it established the logistical infrastructure that such a campaign would demand. Furthermore, there is no visible mobilization that would indicate preparation for a large occupation force. However, the US does have a large number of forward-deployed naval assets, rapid deployment units available back home, and special operations forces that could deploy within 18 to 48 hours to conduct a limited landing designed to seize specific objectives only.
The current goal of the ongoing air campaign appears to be to undermine the Iranian military and political leadership, to ignite internal dissent and local opposition movements, and whereafter, support these through air support and supply drops. Nevertheless, if current aerial efforts fail to create such a scenario, the US may consider scaling up its efforts.
One viable strategy could entail securing a foothold inside Iran to host a provisional government and facilitate overland supply routes instead. The most likely target for such a landing is Bandar Abbas, Iran’s primary southern port and a central node in its oil export system. In addition to establishing a bridgehead, capturing the city would allow US forces to obtain Iran’s main naval base. The accompanying port infrastructure, including cargo terminals and former fleet facilities, could then be repurposed to rapidly unload supplies and serve as a staging ground to support friendly forces inland.
Most importantly, Bandars Abbass’ is strategically located on the Strait of Hormuz. Following the attack, Iran is attempting to blockade the Strait, causing disruptions that are already affecting global shipping lanes. Securing Bandar Abbas would give the US a position from which to guarantee maritime passage to the major oil flows and deny Iran the ability to leverage the strait as a pressure tool.
In preparation for a landing, the US would shift focus to an air campaign aimed at degrading Iranian coastal defenses, displacing Iranian army units from the shoreline, and disrupting their ability to maneuver along the main logistics corridors leading into Bandar Abbas. With defenses disrupted, a numerically smaller landing force could then move into secure administrative buildings, port facilities, and the surrounding districts, in order to secure a perimeter and consolidate control. Infiltration routes through the mountains would be used to send small special forces groups to link up with local resistance networks as well as provide supplies and weaponry overland. Any landing would also force Iranian army units hiding in the surrounding mountains into the open terrain, if they want to contest the US bridgehead. However, any attempt to mass forces for a real counterattack would expose them to US and Israeli airstrikes almost immediately; with over 150 US combat aircraft, several cruisers, and guided-missile destroyers, ready to provide fire support to any landing party.
The alternative for the Iranian army would be a shift toward a guerrilla‑style resistance inside the city and surrounding area. But the operational impact of such a campaign would remain limited if the United States avoids expanding the offensive inland, and positions itself as a supporting force for a new government, instead of an occupying one. High local pro‑Western sentiment, visible in the large protests in the cities and towns here earlier this year, could additionally constrain the Iranian army’s ability to operate covertly.
Highly speculative, but it does contain a certain logic. Plus, with physical control of the oil export terminal, the U.S. could start selling oil in exchange for direct payment, promising to turn over any proceeds after a non-Jihadist government takes power…
Add the Royal Jordanian Air Force to the list of countries flying defensive missions over the Persian Gulf, specifically protecting Bahrain and UAE.
Azerbaijan has reportedly reopened the border with Iran, but the source is TASS, so several grains of salt are probably in order.
Jordan Peterson and Douglas Murray talk about what a scumbag death cult Hamas is.
UAE is investing in Ukrainian MilTech companies and buying Flamingo missiles to counter Iran.
“The United Arab Emirates-based Edge Group is set to purchase a 30 percent ownership stake in Fire Point, Ukraine’s combat-proven missile and drone manufacturer. The proposed deal of around 760 million US dollars will raise the total valuation of the Ukrainian defense firm to roughly 2.5 billion US dollars. Fire Point, which produces the FP-1 and FP-2 unmanned aerial systems as well as the Flamingo cruise missile, has risen to become Ukraine’s leading defense technology manufacturer within just two years, with production of drones currently reaching 6,000 per month.”
“The most interesting product in Fire Point’s arsenal is the Flamingo cruise missile, of which the company produces 1 to 2 units per day. With 30% share in the company and certain agreements, the UAE can receive around 10 to 20 such missiles and 1800 drones per month, significantly enhancing its ability not only to protect itself against enemies like Iran, but to carry out preventive strikes. Combat-proven with an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers and already successfully used to target critical Russian infrastructure within the 2,000 kilometer range, the missile is capable of reaching and destroying any target across Iran. Air bases, command centers, and missile storage facilities can be targeted with ease by its 1,150 kilogram warhead, forcing the Iranian command to change planning due to another deadly threat in the region.”
And what’s happening in the “southern front” of the war? In Lebanon, Israel seems to settling Hezbollah’s hash in both Beirut…
…and southern Lebanon.
Today’s Habitual Linecrosser:
As usual, if you think I missed any significant stories on the war, feel free to share them in the comments below.
The more the Islamic Republic of Iran lashes out at other countries in the region, the more obvious it is that eliminating the regime and its nuclear ambitions was the right call. I once read a quote that if Hitler had possessed nuclear weapons in the in his bunker as the end drew near, he surely would have used him. That’s the sort of nihilistic death-spasm we’re seeing from the Iranian regime.
Some news:
U.S. submarine torpedoes Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off Sri Lanka:
Note that secretary of defense Pete Hegseth stated that we sunk the IRIS Shahid Soleimani, but the video he showed was that Suchomimus posted, which is clearly not a Soleimani-class ship with its distinctive duel prow. There’s obviously some confusion here. But maybe Hegseth just mixed up the videos, as this CENTCOM tweet des seem to show stills from a strike on a Soleimani-class ship.
U.S. forces have struck or sunk to the bottom of the ocean more than 20 ships from the Iranian regime. Last night, CENTCOM added a Soleimani-class warship to the list. pic.twitter.com/KgW8cS726P
With complete American/Israeli air superiority over Iran, the B-52 has joined the fight:
Also, F-22 Raptors have been stationed in Israel, possibly setting the stage for the greatest Habitual Linecrosser video ever.
There are conflicting reports on whether Kurdish rebel forces have launched a ground invasion into Iran or not. Kurdish sources seem to be denying it. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re infiltrating units.
“A citizen sent a video to IranWire, reporting several consecutive explosions in the city of Baneh. The United States and Israel extensively targeted some positions of the Islamic Republic in the city of Baneh today.” Location of Baneh? Kurdistan province.
Simon Whistler explains how Russia and China are going to do “jack” and “squat” to Iran. Or, more specifically, all the moral support you can pack into a roadside IED.
Russia is too busy with its quagmire in Ukraine, and China gets more oil from the Persian Gulf states Iran has been drone and missile attacking than from Iran.
“In a way, Russia and China have delivered Iran the ultimate geopolitical insult. They don’t hate Iran. They aren’t condemning Iran, but at the end of the day, they just don’t really care that much. After decades of loyal partnership, and recent years where Iran has clearly believed that its relationships with China and Russia were growing far deeper, Iran has been discarded. It’s too inconvenient to defend. It isn’t valuable enough to save. And for Moscow and for Beijing, it’ll be easy enough to forget.”
OK, that’s the news I’ve scraped today. If there’s something significant you think I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments.
Days 1 and 2 of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion were filled with so much dramatic news and high value targets that it was hard to keep up. Day 3 is a bit less dramatic, just more U.S. and Israel strike packets hitting targets in the country with essential impunity. And some of those targets (like border posts and police stations) seem to be tertiary targets.
So here’s another round up news. I think all the tweets are from the Suchomimus Discord.
In what has to be the greatest hack since the beeper attack, the ingenious Israelis have had their cyber guys at work again and busted into the regime’s version of The Hallow app for Islamic Religious Fundamentalists.
Why is this important?
It’s state-sponsored, and everyone gets it.
So now, instead of saying ‘Allahu ackbar,’ the prayer app is telling Iranians across the country, ‘Hang in there – WE ARE COMING..’
Years before the air strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli intelligence had been quietly mapping the daily rhythms of Tehran.
According to reporting by the Financial Times, nearly all of the Iranian capital’s traffic cameras had been hacked years earlier, their footage encrypted and transmitted to Israeli servers. One camera angle near Pasteur Street, close to Khamenei’s compound, allowed analysts to observe the routines of bodyguards and drivers: where they parked, when they arrived and whom they escorted.
That data was fed into complex algorithms that built what intelligence officials call a “pattern of life,” detailed profiles including addresses, work schedules and, crucially, which senior officials were being protected and transported. The surveillance stream was one of hundreds feeding Israel’s intelligence system, which combines signals interception from Unit 8200, human assets recruited by the Mossad and large-scale data analysis by military intelligence.
The result was Ali Khamenei and company getting express tickets to the afterlife.
— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 2, 2026
Border post strikes:
NEW: Israeli jets have begun striking border guard positions along the Iraq-Iran frontier in what appears to be an effort to weaken Iranian control over the region and potentially clear a path for armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraq to move back into Iran. pic.twitter.com/srj7CWrGWr
#BREAKING: All detainees held at the Central Prison of (Kurdish town of) Marivan (Mariwan) were released shortly after Israeli and U.S. fighter jets bombed military and intelligence facilities in the city, according to information received by Hengaw. The development occurred on… pic.twitter.com/nPKpTKWoRa
— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) March 2, 2026
The American military says it struck Iranian naval drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri during the opening strikes on Iran on Saturday.
“The Iranian regime’s false messaging machine continues to falsely claim that it has sunk a US aircraft carrier. The only carrier that has been hit is the Shahid Bagheri, an Iranian drone carrier,” the US Central Command says.
“US forces struck the ship within hours of launching Operation Epic Fury,” CENTCOM adds.
Since the Islamic Republic of Iran refuses to give up its nuclear weapons program or free its own people, the liberation of Iran has begun.
The United States and Israel launched long-awaited strikes on Iran early Saturday morning, as President Trump vowed to destroy their missile capabilities, “annihilate” their navy, and ensure the nation never obtains a nuclear weapon.
Trump, in a video message released overnight that made clear the goal is regime change, urged the Iranian people to “take over your government” when the operation is finished.
“The hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said. “This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. . . . This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
America and Israel reportedly plan to carry out several days of attacks, and Trump cautioned that while the administration is taking every step to minimize risks to American personnel, “we may have casualties.”
He added, “We’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.” He urged Iranian security forces to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity, or face “certain death.”
Snip.
During his State of the Union address, Trump began to make a broader case for military action against Iran, citing, as he did in his video remarks released overnight, the regime’s attacks over the past half-century against U.S. personnel in the region.
You can only tug on Superman’s cape for so long.
The United States is calling it Operation Epic Fury, while Israel is going with Lion’s Roar.
Suchomimus has compiled footage of the strikes.
Some highlights:
A strike against “Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s house. The Iranian woman recording the aftermath of the strike sounds “absolutely delighted.” It was hit in broad daylight, indicating how little American and Israeli fear Iran’s degraded, Russian-sourced air defense systems.
A salvo of at least 30 tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the Mediterranean flying over Iraq en-route to targets in Iran.
Iran is (naturally) launching retaliatory rockets at Israel.
One of the U.S./Israeli strike targets is Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami, who has been reported killed.
Second Suchomimus video:
Highlights:
U.S. naval base in Bahrain hit by retaliatory Iranian missiles. “This seems like it may have been a waste of missiles because reports are saying that this base was largely cleared out prior to this. So America evacuated much of the imported equipment and troops and ships from here to a safer place. So there was nothing of importance here.” And geolocation shows that Iran might actually have hit a nearby mosque.
A possible successful strike in Dubai.
Also Iranian missiles being successfully intercepted over Abu Dhabi. Likely target was Al Dhafra Air Base, but nothing seems to have been hit there.
But a possible successful strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, though its not clear what, if anything, was hit.
“Two places hit by the US are Iranian naval bases Asaluyeh and Chabahar…Asaluyeh is a major target. This is known to be an underground storage complex for the Iranian Navy in which speedboats and coastal defense missiles are stored here.”
“Also confirmed hit was the headquarters of the IRGC, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who are a major branch of the Iranian armed forces.” This is near Damavand, an underground complex that was reportedly hit with bunker buster bombs.
Israel reportedly hit Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, head of Iran’s judiciary courts.
A quick LiveUAMap snapshot of in-theater action:
President Trump’s announcement of the strikes:
“A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.”
“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”
“Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries.”
He covers the regime’s role in the Iranian Hostage Crisis, the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, and the 2000 attack on the USS Cole.
“Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime’s proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as US naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lands. It’s been mass terror and we’re not going to put up with it any longer.”
“it was Iran’s proxy Hamas that launched the monstrous October 7th attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before.”
“Iran is the world’s number one state sponsor of terror, and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested.”
“It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I’ll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”
“They’ve rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore.”
“Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.”
“For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.”
“We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.”
“We are going to annihilate their navy.”
“We are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces and no longer use their IEDs, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people including many Americans.”
“And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
“This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces.”
“My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.”
“But we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran.”
“We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way. And we trust that, with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.”
“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms, you will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.”
“Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.”
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond.”
“America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
“May God bless the brave men and women of America’s armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.”
Update 2: The Taliban call on Muslims worldwide…not to support Iran.
🚨 🇦🇫 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 – 𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗕𝗔𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗦 𝗜𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗜𝗔𝗡 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗜𝗠𝗘
Taliban leader Abdul Hamid Khorasani says that "Israel and Iran are one coin" and called upon Muslims worldwide to stay vigilant and not support the "infidel regime of Iran" pic.twitter.com/ndiFIJLFk9
I don’t think many people had that on their bingo card…
Update 3: Peter Zeihan weighs in, and we didn’t even have to wait a week:
He says all the Iranian drone and missile facilities were hit, and that the Israelis were ones hitting Iranian leadership. But no sign they’ve hit the Shahed production facilities…yet. And no sign of attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
His military sources are generally better than his political sources, but several grains of salt are usually in order anyway.
Update 4: Power plant on Kharg Island, the terminal for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, hit:
Kharg Island is Iran’s jugular.
80-90% of Iran’s crude exports flow through this supertanker terminal in the Persian Gulf. No Kharg, no oil revenue. No oil revenue, no regime. Every war plan, every sanctions package, every naval deployment in the Gulf orbits this one fact. https://t.co/E0mVmlC9eapic.twitter.com/mRuT3gTY1s
Update 5: We’re hitting Iran with clones of their own Shahed drones:
CENTCOM's Task Force Scorpion Strike – for the first time in history – is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran's Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/VYdjiECKDT
Despite some initial debate, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed during the airstrikes Saturday morning, Israeli officials report.
“Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Tehran, with his body found under the rubble caused by an Israeli airstrike, senior Israeli officials were informed on Saturday evening,” the Jerusalem Post reports. “Documentation of Khamenei’s body was reportedly shown to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Update 7: Suchomimus has footage of Khamenei’s flattened compound.
Probably more on this video later. It’s Saturday and I’ve got Other Stuff that needs doing…
Update 8: Via Stephen Green at Instapundit, some Strategery:
Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Greenland, Panama…it’s all interconnected and it all points to China.
As U.S. energy ramps up, and China is deprived of subsidized oil, subsidized shipping channels, freedom of navigation through sovereign waters and allies that can cause the U.S.… https://t.co/K5cmCg8xcj
Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Greenland, Panama…it’s all interconnected and it all points to China.
As U.S. energy ramps up, and China is deprived of subsidized oil, subsidized shipping channels, freedom of navigation through sovereign waters and allies that can cause the U.S. problems…their global position diminishes substantially and their costs of doing business skyrocket.
Venezuela and Iran account for something like 20% of China’s oil imports and they’re getting an insane deal on it. China has a huge problem if that oil goes away.
You’d be forgiven for thinking Trump’s foreign policy seems random and chaotic, but it’s actually one of the most focused and (thus far) well executed foreign policies in at least 2 generations.
One problem the Navy has in a potential fight with China is that its carrier strike groups would need to be dangerously close to the Chinese mainland to launch strike aircraft close enough for them to return. The MQ-25 Stingray is designed to solve that problem.
“This is the Boeing MQ-25 Stingray. It is the world’s first operational, carrier-based unmanned aircraft.”
“Despite looking like a futuristic stealth bomber, its job isn’t to bomb or dog fight. Its job is a bit boring. It’s a flying gas station.”
“In the Pacific theater, the distances between safe bases and potential combat zones are measured in thousands of kilometers. The Pacific Ocean is really big. Yet, modern carrier fighters like the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the F-35C actually have shorter combat radiuses than the old Cold War workhorses like the A-6 Intruder.”
“To fix this, the Navy has been forced to use its own fighters as improvised tankers. Currently, somewhere between 20 and 30% of all Super Hornet sorties are just refueling missions. They hang extra fuel tanks on the wings and fly out just to top off their friends. This is kind of like buying a fleet of high-end Ferraris and then using a third of them to deliver Uber Eats. It works, yes, but it is an incredibly stupid use of money and airframe life.”
“The MQ-25 is designed to stop that waste by spending billions of dollars. It can launch from the carrier and deliver between 14,000 and 16,000 lb of fuel to other aircraft 500 nautical miles away. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly 2,400 gallons. That’s enough gas to fill up about 160 family cars.”
“If you’re a carrier-based drone with that kind of range and internal volume, you don’t have to fill it with gas. You could fill it with radar arrays. You could fill it with sensor packages or one day you could indeed fill it with stealthy anti-ship missiles.”
The Intruder could “strike targets hundreds of miles away and loiter for hours, keeping the aircraft carrier itself well out of harm’s way. But those aircraft are gone. They were retired years ago, leaving the modern air carrier deck dominated by the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the F-35C. Now, these are fantastic high-tech multiroll fighters. But compared to their ancestors, they’ve got short legs. Their unrefueled combat radius is significantly tighter.”
“Potential adversaries, specifically China, have spent the last 20 years developing long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles. These are weapons designed to hunt carriers, and they can hit targets from well over a thousand km away. So, here is the problem the Navy is facing. If you put a US carrier in the Philippine Sea and draw a circle representing how far its jets can fly without refueling, there is a very good chance that that circle doesn’t even touch the Chinese mainland. But if you draw a circle for the range of China’s land-based missiles, it easily encompasses the carrier, which is not brilliant news for the US Navy.”
“The obvious solution here is aerial refueling. If you can gas up the fighters in midair, you can extend their range and the carrier can stay safe.”
The Stingray started out as an unmanned stealth bomber program, the Northrup Grumman X-47B, but got repurposed as a duller but badly needed tanker. Boeing got the revised contract.
“Yet, when Boeing unveiled their design, it didn’t look like a flying fuel truck. With its blended fuselage, flush air intake that hides the engine fan blades, and a distinct V-tail, the Stingray looks suspiciously like the stealth drone that the Navy said it didn’t want. Defense analysts, including those at The War Zone, have pointed out lingering questions about the origins of this shape. The strong implication there is that Boeing had already done the heavy lifting on a stealthy U-class design, and rather than just throwing it away, they essentially repurposed it. They gave the Navy a gas station, but they disguised it as half a stealth bomber.”
“The MQ-25 is a beast. It’s 51 feet long. That’s roughly the length of a standard city bus. Its wingspan is 75 feet, which is massive for a carrier deck aircraft. To fit into the ship’s garage, the hanger deck, the wing tips fold up, which means it’s just 31 feet across. Powering this frame is a single Rolls-Royce AE307N turbo fan,” a workhorse commercial engine.
“The Navy’s objective for the Stingrays to offload 14 to 16,000lb of fuel at a range of 500 nautical miles. To put that in perspective, that’s about 2,400 gallons of jet fuel.”
It’s stealthy, but not that stealthy, carrying fuel pods under its wings.
“The actual tanking part of the drone is surprisingly old school. Under the wing, the MQ-25 carries the Cobham buddy store refueling pod, the exact same hardware used on the Super Hornets today. It uses a hose and drogue system. The drone unreels a hose with a basket on the end and the receiver pilot plugs their probe into it.”
“The MQ-25 has no rear-facing camera or proximity sensors dedicated to the refueling basket. It doesn’t see you approaching. Just like with a human flown tanker, the robot flies a steady line, and it relies entirely on the skill of the human pilot in the fighter jet to plug in.”
“On the carrier, the Stingray is managed via the unmanned carrier aviation mission control system or UMCS. The Navy has even installed a dedicated room aboard the USS George H. W. Bush called the Unmanned Air Warfare Center, or UAWC. Inside, air vehicle operators sit at consoles. They don’t have a stick and rudder. Instead, they pre-program the mission with way points, refueling tracks, and contingencies. Once the drone launches, it is largely autonomous. It executes the plan on its own.”
It’s positioned and launched off the deck of the carrier using a hand-held device.
Aerial refueling with it was successfully tested in 2021.
“As of 2025, the official program of record calls for the Navy to buy 76 Stingrays, 67 operational aircraft, and nine for testing and development. The total price tag for this fleet is estimated at roughly $15.9 billion. Doing the maths, that works out to an acquisition cost of around $209 million per aircraft, a number that includes its share of the research and development costs.”
“Originally, the Navy hoped to have production representative aircraft flying by 2022. Nope.”
“The schedule has slipped repeatedly.”
“By late 2025, reports confirmed that the first flight of the Navy’s production representative jet had slipped again into early 2026, as the team wrestled with structural tests and software certification. The target for actual combat readiness is now listed vaguely as by the end of fiscal year 2027.”
“To try and clear the bottleneck, Boeing opened a new $200 million dedicated facility at St. Louis airport in 2024 designed specifically to churn out these drones.”
Critics argue for cheaper alternatives. “Supporters counter that the fuel is just the appetizer. They argue the MQ-25 is a pathfinder. Its real value isn’t just in gallons delivered, but in teaching the Navy how to integrate unmanned aircraft into the carrier airwing at scale. It is the entry fee for the future of naval warfare.”
“If you talk to naval strategists and especially, if you look at what analysts are whispering about it, it is very clear that tanker is kind of just the beginning here. The most immediate impact is range. The Royal Aeronautical Society notes that by offloading 15,000 lb of fuel at 500 nautical miles from the carrier, the MQ-25 effectively doubles the combat radius of the airwing. This is the big metric that Chinese military planners are reportedly getting quite worried about.”
“The fighters can top up their tanks deep in the combat zone, allowing them to strike targets that were previously untouchable, while the carrier stays hundreds of miles further back in safety.”
“But the Stingray is a big aircraft with a lot of internal volume and long endurance, which makes it perfect for a secondary role, the sensor truck. The Navy’s own documents explicitly list intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or ISR, as a secondary mission.”
“Because it doesn’t need a cockpit or life support, there’s plenty of room inside for radar arrays, electronic warfare jammers, or heavy communications gear. Analysts envision the Stingray acting as a cell tower in the sky, orbiting silently for hours, linking manned fighters, ships, and other drones into a single network, relaying data back to the fleet while the fighters focus on the fighting.”
“Then there’s the spicy option, the missile truck. In 2024, photos surfaced of an MQ-25 model at a trade show. It wasn’t just carrying fuel pots. Under its wings were two massive AGM 158C LRASM stealth anti-ship missiles. And under its nose was a new sensor ball.”
“While the Navy hasn’t officially committed to this armed Stingray configuration yet, the logic is pretty seductive. If you have a drone that can fly long distances and has low observable shaping, why not use it to launch long-range missiles? It could allow the carrier to launch salvos of stealthy anti-ship weapons from well outside the range of enemy defenses, turning the humble tanker into a lethal standoff striker.” While true, the already-in-service MQ-9 Reaper has a 1,000 nautical mile range.
“Navy leaders are already talking about a future, perhaps by 2040, where up to 60% of the carrier airwing is unmanned. The Stingray along with the mission control infrastructure UAWC being built into carriers right now is the foundation for that future.”
My concern is that each of these is basically refueling one F/A-18 or F-35 if you’re using them to double the strike range; that’s a lot of tail to extend the teeth, especially since they’re taking up additional carrier hanger space. A lot of the same benefit for the China scenario can be achieved by flying longer range, less stealthy ground-based refueling aircraft (like the KC-46 Pegasus) out of U.S. airbases at Luzon or Okinawa. Of course, both of those (and other theater airbases) might be hit with Chinese missiles in a conflict.
But the sensor and long-range strike configurations are intriguing…
