EuroDoom Roundup: Waiting for the Inevitable Greek Default

You know the problem with doing one of these roundups on the European Debt Crises? I can search for “Euro” just about anytime of the day and night on Google News and come up with a dozen things I could potentially include. So just consider this a Whitman’s European Despair Sampler of possible bad news, as there’s a lot more where this came from:

  • European Finance Minsters on Greece’s latest bond offer: REJECTED.
  • “A Greek Default: It’s a-Comin'”.
  • In exchange for bailing out Greece yet again, Germany wants Greece to cede control over its tax rates and budget to an EU commission (i.e., Germany). It’s almost touching, this German naivety that Greeks can actually be compelled to obey German laws when they can’t even be compelled to obey Greek laws even now. But despite the fact that such government dictates would be ignored just like they are now, Greeks are still furious at the proposal. (Hat tip: Ace.)
  • And if Berlin doesn’t get to call the tune? “Germany and the Netherlands are likely to quit the eurozone rather than swallow an indefinite number of ‘unrequited transfers’ to the union’s crisis-stricken nations.”
  • And even if a deal is reached, it will probably trigger credit default swaps.
  • And if Greece doesn’t blow up the Euro, Portugal will.
  • Fitch downgrades Spain, Belgium, Italy, Slovenia, and Cyprus. (Hat tip: Ace, again.)
  • What will European currency look like after a Euro-zone breakup? Like this.
  • Another month, another EuroZone bailout fund. The rules for the New and Improved Euro Bailout Fund is: 1. “Access [will] be made conditional on signing a new treaty on fiscal discipline.” 2. “Countries representing 85 percent of the fund’s capital [will make] decisions instead of unanimity among the eurozone 17 – will only apply to authorise ESM loans from existing funds.” So 1.) We get an entire new set of fiscal discipline guidelines for the PIIGs governments to ignore, and 2. Germany will call the tune, and the rest of the Eurozone will dance. At least until the next shuffling of the fiscal deck chairs.
  • Well, here’s a headline sure to fill investors with confidence: “From now on, in Europe, everything gets worse.”
  • Spanish unemployment hits 23.4%. And what happens when austerity means they can no longer pay people not to work? That’s he problem with cradle-to-grave European welfare state: sooner or later you run out of your grandchildren’s money…
  • Eurofudge.
  • The Soviet Union yesterday: “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.” Greece today: “The old dynamic—with Greece pretending to make structural changes and its lenders pretending to save it from default—has become untenable.”
  • The whole EU illusion has been predicated on the assumption that Greeks can be made to behave like Germans, and that the EU could manage to forge a new, multi-ethnic, post-national identity in 20 years when Belgium hasn’t been able to do it in almost 200.
  • Cameron caves. Sadly, this behavior is far more in line with his previous record than his brief stint of standing on principle.
  • House Republicans are working to rescind the $100 billion IMF bailout fund Nancy Pelosi helped create. They may not succeed, but they might force the Obama Administration to defend backstopping the Euro at a time when the federal budget is still hemorrhaging red ink…
  • Last week: France’s credit rating makes our latest Euro bailout fund rock solid. This week: oops.
  • The threat of default is also holding up the merger of two Greek banks, maybe because it’s as yet unclear just how they’ll put European taxpayers on the hook for their losses. Once that’s figured out, I’m sure the merger will fly through…
  • Those bondholders who can’t stick it to taxpayers are looking at 70% losses for Greek debt.
  • Just because Italy is broke is no reason for them to drop a bid for the Olympics.
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