There’s a lot to digest and discuss about Ted Cruz’s victory over David Dewhurst, and I’m sure I’ll have more tomorrow. But here are a few myths that Cruz’s victory laid to rest tonight.
Hispanics can’t win statewide Republican primaries in Texas. This one was born in Victor Carrillo’s defeat in the 2010 Railroad Commissioner’s race. It was sour grapes by Carrillo (and wishful thinking by the liberal media) then, and was debunked tonight.
The Tea Party has peaked and is in decline. Cruz is just the latest Tea Party candidate to knock off an establishment Republican. And Sarah Palin looks more and more like the most powerful kingmaker in the Republican Party.
Big money will always trump grassroots enthusiasm. Dewhurst was a quarter-billionaire who outraised Cruz (at least initially) and dumped a ton of money on TV advertising. It didn’t help.
Social media isn’t nearly as important as TV and newspaper ad buys. The Cruz campaign was far more adept and nimble using Facebook, Twitter, etc., and it was a big factor in locking up grassroots support early. And many observers have noted that Dewhurst’s ad buys probably hurt him.
Negative campaigning is the key to victory. Dewhurst went negative early and often, and it not only raised Cruz’s profile, but backfired when people found out the issues they were hyping were trivia (the Chinese tire case) or outright lies (the amnesty and kids-for-cash smears). Honest negative campaigning is still a useful tool, but the Internet makes it so easy to debunk lies that obvious falsehoods no longer have time to take root before they’re debunked.
Media endorsements are vital to winning voter support. Dewhurst got the lion’s share of MSM endorsements. It obviously didn’t help him.
More race analysis tomorrow.
Tags: 2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elections, Media Watch, MSM, Republicans, runoff, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Victor Carrillo
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 31st, 2012 at 11:48 PM and is filed under Elections, Republicans, Texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
I’m interested in how this will play out in terms of gun politics. Another myth that you could argue might have been killed is that of the NRA’s influence.
Dewhurst was A+ rated by the NRA, and (as I recall) was endorsed by TSRA. Dewhurst was also advertising to the gun community. (The LA Times was serving me – probably geo-IP targeted – ads at one point about Dewhurst calling for Holder’s firing.)
I’m sure Cruz realizes that much of his base doesn’t support gun control, and going in that direction will make him a one-term senator. I just find this angle on the race…interesting.
But remember that Cruz was endorsed by Gun Owners of America. Also, I’m not seeing TSRA on Dewhurst’s list of endorsements.
I could be wrong about the TSRA endorsement; I don’t have access to that email account at work or on the phone.