Most 538 Scenarios Show Trump Failing to Clinch 1,237 Delegates by the Convention

For all that Donald Trump has roiled this primary season, he’s still far from clinching the nomination. In fact, the consensus scenario over at FiveThirtyEight shows him falling short at 1,208 delegates. More discussion of their methodology is here.

Note, however, that they had Trump picking up 4 delegates from Utah, when he actually picked up zero, meaning here’s already fallen (slightly) off their projected pace.

Trump could still win on the first ballot of the convention without an absolute majority of delegates going in, but that’s far from a sure thing. We could very well be headed for a brokered convention, and then all bets are off.

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