This is an interesting piece by Glen Bolger on why Republicans will enjoy a house majority for at least the next four years. There are several statistical reasons:
- Presidents who win re-election have small coattails, at best.
- Republicans picked up 9 House seats the year Bush 43 won reelection, but Democrats lost 35 seats when Carter got creamed by Reagan.
- State legislative gains have given Republicans extensive control over redistricting. In 1981, Republicans only controlled redistricting for 55 House seats, while Democrats controlled it for 225 seats. By contrast, next year Republicans will control redistricting for 193 House seats, while Democrats will only control it for 44 seats.
Read the whole thing (it’s short).
(Hat Tip: Jim Geraghty at NRO’s Campaign Spot.)
Tags: Democrats, Elections, Jim Geraghty, Redistricting, Republicans