Wargaming a Sanders Exit

Following yesterday’s news that Socialist Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack and had two stents installed, rumors have been rife that Sanders will drop out of the race.

Give the old commie his due: Bernie appears to be a tough old bird who keeps up a rigorous campaign schedule. And a stent procedure is far less taxing than a coronary bypass, and some people are up and walking about within a week after having a stent inserted.

That said, heart surgery of any kind is no joke. The people who are up and around in a few days after stent surgery are young people. Sanders is 78. And the next Democratic debate is thirteen days from now. It’s possible that Sanders will be recovered enough to participate, but I rather doubt it. At the very least I expect he’ll need a chair rather than standing for a couple of hours.

Also, anytime old people undergo general anesthetic, there’s the possibility they’ll suffer from postoperative cognitive dysfunction. Problems can include “impairments in attention, memory, concentration and/or executive function.” And even if he is all there, it’s a good bet that he won’t be as up physically for the grueling schedules of a serious presidential campaign.

If Sanders drops out, lots of people have calculated that will help Elizabeth Warren as the most viable leftward candidate, but that’s not necessarily the case. Morning Consult polls consistently show that slightly more Sanders voters prefer prefer Joe Biden as their second choice over Warren. I’m pretty sure Sanders voters won’t be wild about backing billionaire candidate Tom Steyer (an opinion they seem to share with the overwhelming voting age population).

If I had to pick a likely beneficiary of Sanders dropping out beyond Biden and Warren, the longshot that comes to mind is Andrew Yang. After all, both of their followers have a noted devotion to being promised free stuff…

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