Silicon Valley Billionaires Dumping Tons Of Money Into Texas Senate Race

For some reason, PACs belonging to Silicon Valley Billionaires have decided to dump a ton of money into the Texas senate race at the last minute:

A little-known super PAC seeded with Silicon Valley money plans to lead four other outside groups in a $28 million TV ad blitz to try to help Democrat MJ Hegar unseat Texas Sen. John Cornyn.

Future Forward’s own ads began airing Tuesday, according to ad-tracking service Advertising Analytics. Through Monday, it reserved nearly $2.4 million of time slots in 19 Texas TV markets as well as Shreveport, La.

The ads are part of a planned deluge of advertising for Hegar in the election’s final two weeks that’s being orchestrated by the super PAC’s leader, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, with assists from four other Democratic groups, the news site Recode first reported.

On Wednesday, Hegar’s campaign announced it began airing on Black radio stations across Texas a 60-second ad in which former President Barack Obama expounds on why he recently endorsed her.

In the ad, Obama extols Hegar’s record as a veteran who served in Afghanistan, a working mother who he said will defend the Affordable Care Act and a politician “firmly committed to making the reforms we need to address systemic racism and create a more fair and equitable America.” Hegar’s runoff opponent in the Democratic primary, Dallas state Sen. Royce West, an African American, has has not specifically retracted an Oct. 9 statement that he would not vote for Hegar in the general election.

The Obama spot will run in 14 cities, including Dallas, said Hegar spokeswoman Amanda Sherman.

Asked how much Hegar would spend on the ad, Sherman replied, “This is part of the seven-figure investment we announced to mobilize the Black vote.” She referred to buys that began Oct. 8.

Citing a confidential memo circulated to major donors last week, Recode said the $28 million of ad buys will include $10 million from New York Sen. Chuck Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC, which on Thursday announced an $8.6 million TV buy to help Hegar. The $8.6 million is part of the $28 million of late advertising being planned.

On the super PAC-led effort against Cornyn, Recode reported that the other groups assisting Future Forward in the push are Strategic Victory Fund, Way to Win, and Mind the Gap. Recode is a former technology news site that last year joined forces with Vox Media to probe Silicon Valley’s influence on politics.

A Cornyn spokesperson accused Hegar of hypocrisy, recalling that the Democrat has run on overturning a 2010 Supreme Court decision, Citizens United v. FEC, which said the First Amendment forbids restrictions of independent political expenditures by corporations.

“MJ has completely abandoned her principles, broken her promises and is selling out Texans to the highest bidder in California,” Cornyn press secretary Krista Piferrer said in a written statement. “This is a defining moment that shows exactly how untrustworthy her word really is, and how willing she is to look the other way so long as she personally benefits.”

Democrats whining about Cornyn snipped.

On Tuesday, Future Forward planned to report to the Federal Election Commission that it raised $66 million between Sept. 1 and Thursday, with big donations from Silicon Valley billionaires Jeff Lawson, founder of cloud platform Twilio; Eric Schmidt, veteran chief executive of Google; and Moskovitz, according to Recode.

I’m sure this news was not well-received at Cornyn headquarters, but I find it hard to work up any anxiety over the ad buy:

  • Hegar is a retread. She couldn’t beat the far more beatable John Carter in a U.S. congressional race in the Year of Beto, which gives me zero reason to believe she can step up and beat Cornyn in a presidential year.
  • Speaking of Beto, he had all the money and favorable press in the world and still couldn’t beat Ted Cruz, a politician measurably more controversial than John Cornyn.
  • Speaking of Cornyn’s measurable, the last time he was on the ballot he garnered the most votes of any statewide candidate, pulling in a hefty 2,855,068 votes, more than 1,200,000 more than hapless Democratic opponent David Alameel. That was the year Greg Abbott beat Wendy Davis like a rented mule, and Cornyn did better than Abbott. This year will be closer, but Cornyn will almost certainly exceed the 4,260,553 votes Ted Cruz won in 2018, and will likely even top the 4,685,047 votes Donald Trump carried in Texas in 2016. (I fully expect Trump to top his 2016 total as well.)
  • One of the most persistent myths in politics is that big TV ad buys can magically swing races. Ask Jeb Bush, Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg how well that strategy worked out for them. Last minute ad buys can swing extremely close races, but less than two weeks before election day, they certainly can’t conjure new voters out of thin air.
  • As in 2018, national Republicans have to be pleased that Democrats are once again dumping money into a Texas senate race rather than those in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina or Arizona. But those inside the liberal media bubble keep getting high on their own supply, and thus keep believing the “Texas is about to turn blue” myth.
  • All that said, as in 2018, all that up-ballot money could make it harder for Republicans to recapture some of the down-ballot seats that flipped in 2018. But late TV ad money is a lot less effective than early organizing money.
  • (Hat tip: Cahnman.)

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    6 Responses to “Silicon Valley Billionaires Dumping Tons Of Money Into Texas Senate Race”

    1. T Migratorious says:

      That’s just weird. In my part of Hays County, I have seen maybe 20 Biden/Harris signs and 2 or 3 Hegar signs, so no groundswell of enthusiasm for Hegar. In addition, a third of Travis County voters have already voted and i suspect that Hays numbers are similar.

      As you said, saturation advertising might influence a close campaign, but when it’s NOT close and a large chunk of voters have already voted, I fail to see any sensible reason for doing it.

      High on their own supply indeed.

    2. gman says:

      “I fail to see any sensible reason for doing it”

      it’s to cover the impending voter fraud.

    3. Local Texan says:

      It likely will not get the Senate seat but it will help swing the big city urban areas by getting more Democrats to vote. Harris County (Houston) went completely Blue/Democrat across the board for judges, etc. with the Beto vote. Yes, Ted Cruz still won the state but Harris County local government completely flipped.

    4. T Migratorious says:

      Local Texan–

      In the Beto election our state rep also flipped to a progressive Dem (supported Warren) who absolutely does not reflect the composition of the district. When we went to early vote on the first day, she was there in a campaign t-shirt handing out water bottles to people waiting in line. (Two hours, half of it in the Texas sun).

      Judging from the reaction of people in line, most people knew who she was and turned her down. Guy in front of us said, “I’m not drinking THAT Kool-Aid!”

      I think the composition of the electorate is a lot different this time. May not affect Harris County, but it will affect more purple counties.

    5. BonHagar says:

      Might not swing the US senate race but still remind democrats to turn out and vote blue in other races. I’m sure Trump & Cornyn will carry the state but it’s many of the smaller local jurisdictions that are crucial for Republicans to hold.

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