Ukraine is often depicted as David up against Russia’ Goliath, but this analyst argues the situation is closer to the reverse when it comes to in-theater manpower:
Some takeaways:
Russia didn’t anticipate Ukraine undertaking mass mobilization, and now finds itself outnumbered. “There’s a fair chance the number will get even more lopsided.”
Estimates for losses on each side are hard.
Guestimate: 11,000 Russians dead, 9,000 Ukrainians.
Add in captured troops and those wounded enough to be out of combat yields about 39,000 Russians out of action. “That’s a lot. It’s about 21% of the Russian starting force.”
Not referenced in the video, but: “Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks.” Though I’ve seen higher numbers (20-30%) elsewhere.
Ukrainian losses are probably around 6%.
“Russian losses have a higher percentage of professional soldiers.”
Offensive operations produce higher casualties than defense.
“Ukraine is vast. It’s bigger than France. [It] had more than 40 million people before the war.”
By March 15, Ukraine had hit its planned reserve call-up troop level of 130,000. Add in volunteers, foreign fighters, National Guard, etc., Ukraine may have as many as 400,000 troops (with various levels of training) under arms.
Ukraine could potentially have 750,000 troops under arms by July.
“Russia is unable to seriously increase the number of its troops in Ukraine. That is because Russia is evidently fearful of sending its conscripts into battle.”
After a small number of conscript units got mauled, Putin promised that no more conscripts would be sent.
The “Russia has a million man army” figure is misleading. Ground troops only total some 360,000 troops across the entire country, many of which are conscripts.
Russia can’t afford to pull every single competent ground troop from every corner of its country and send them to Ukraine. He could maybe get another 10-20,000 professional troops, but those would only be compensating for existing losses.
Russia has 35,000 local fighters in Donbas, but they’re not equipped to go on big offensives.
Belarus is unlikely to get involved, and may be more trouble than it’s worth, because their army is heavily made up of conscripts. “Fewer than 10,000 troops.” And the political repercussions could be costly.
But for Russia to have some chance of continuing to push inside Ukraine under the present conditions – where arms aid is flowing into Ukraine, and where morale issues are widespread within the Russian army – many more soldiers are an absolute must. If Russia does decide to send in conscripts or even the national guard, those would likely be kept back, to keep securing the taken areas. But for that the frontline needs to fully consolidate, without so many Ukrainian pockets of resistance. And still, the domestic political fallout of such a move might be deeply destabilizing.
Russia currently seems to be unwilling to increase its numbers in Ukraine above 200,000.
“For Ukraine, this war IS what the great patriotic war was for the Soviet Union in 1941.”
“With time, further troops and more weapons, Ukraine’s army may try to pressure even those consolidated Russian positions in the east and south.”
If there’s a flaw in this analysis, it’s that Putin could change his mind about using conscripts in a heartbeat. But Russia has had huge problems feeding and resupplying it’s existing army. Until that problem is fixed. more conscripts would mean throwing more badly-trained and ill-equipped troops into the meat grinder.
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Russian forces are likely screwed, in the medium and long term. They are going to have a hard time extricating themselves from the Ukrainian tar-baby they stuck their hands into, and I wouldn’t rule out the Ukrainians re-taking most of the Donbas once the Russian forces collapse–Which I suspect they’re a lot closer to than many would credit.
Supplying an army is hard, and it is even harder when you’re stupid about it. Russian logistics are manpower-intensive, and that eats into combat capability because you’ve got men doing what forklifts do in the Western armies. The situation is analogous to Antarctic exploration–After a point, the ponies and dogs eat more fodder and food than they’re worth, in terms of what they can haul. Similarly, the amount of manpower the Russians have to devote to resupply operations is only going to go up, and the fact that the majority of the equipment they’re pulling out of what they thought were war stocks that’s just not capable of being easily put back into operation…? Yeah. The fact that all those Donbas troops are running around with Mosin-Nagant rifles from before and during WWII? That’s what a poker player would call a “tell”.
The Russians lost this war in the first 72 hours, when they failed with their decapitation blow. The fact that they can’t admit it to themselves, and are still digging at the bottom of the hole they’re in? Another tell; rational professional military people are not running this cluster-fark of an operation. If there were any, they probably got shot the moment they recommended cutting their losses and getting out. The Russian Army in Ukraine is a wasting asset, right now, and the longer they stay in-country and the more atrocities get committed by them, the worse it will be for Russia. Long-term, the smartest thing they could do would be to get out, declare peace, pay the Ukrainians reparations, and then try to recoup their losses over the next few decades. I doubt they’re going to do that, so what is most likely to happen is they’re going to keep doubling-down on stupid, brutally kill a bunch more Ukrainian non-combatants, and earn Russia international pariah status on the order of Nazi Germany. This is going to end badly for them, and it will only get worse the longer they persist in trying to “win”. As attitudes harden, watch what happens–Odds are very good that you’ll see what was Russia collapse into regional fiefdoms that ally with whatever power is closer. I’d wager that the Finns might wind up with a de facto return of Karelia and other depressed northern regions, while much of Siberia winds up going Chinese.
They can’t keep this up, economically or demographically. Putin has been a long-term disaster for Russia, and his end-game is pathologically insane. God knows how many more Russians are going to die, as he attempts to play politics with their lives.
He might pull this off, but only if the rest of the world plays stupid and lets him. I don’t see that happening, not with all the pressure that people are going to put on their governments, once the atrocities get publicity and traction. I don’t think Putin quite realizes that this isn’t the 1990s, anymore, and that the sort of thing he did in the Chechen wars can’t be hidden. Also, there’s the minor issue of the Chechens being perceived as a bunch of vicious primitives, while when you look at Ukraine, it’s all little old ladies, women, and kids. The optics are far different… It’s kinda the difference between collecting for endangered species: Nobody gives a damn about endangered cockroach species, but them panda bears…? They’re photogenic as hell, and people get all sorts of concerned about them. That’s the difference between Chechnya and Ukraine, one that I think Putin failed to comprehend. So long as the Ukrainians maintain their position as the noble plucky underdog, Russia is going to suffer under sanctions and international disdain. This will play out however it plays out, but I don’t think it’s going to accrue much in the way of benefit to the Russians.
Also, Chechnya was inside Russia’s borders. Ukraine was clearly a sovereign nation with internationally recognized boundaries, despite the fact that Russia had already bitten off a couple of pieces.
There are some major cultural differences, too–In the Chechen mindset, the brutality demonstrated by Putin was a net plus for him. The Chechens see that sort of thing as being “strong”, and identify with a leader that does that sort of thing, which is why so many rallied to Putin’s side after the war was over. They like being with the winners, see…
In Ukraine? Talk about a badly calculated move; all he’s done is play into the sense of Ukrainian persecution by the Russians/Communists/Whoever. Brutality with them is not going to have the same sort of long-term effect that it had with the Chechens–The Chechens actually admire Putin for what he did to them. The Ukrainians? Dear God… They’ve been nurturing a deep and lasting hatred for all that is Russian since about the late 1920s, when the early days of the Holodomor started cranking up. This stuff is just going to harden attitudes and push them further away, probably irrecoverably so, from Mother Russia. Who they’re coming to view as an abusive bitch that can’t be trusted.
It would have been one thing if Putin and his troops had come in with the actual demonstrated intent of “rescuing” Ukraine from the Ukrainian oligarchy and Nazis. They could have done this by sending all sorts of signals, like helping little old ladies find shelter and doing all the touchy-feely sort of thing that you do as a military in these situations. Instead, they chose the precise opposite path, and that’s going to resonate. Russian conduct is going to ripple out across the entire issue, and it ain’t going to be helpful to their cause in any way, shape, or form. If anything, I think it’s going to earn them international pariah status for a long time to come, with all that implies for future Russia.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: This is Russo-Japanese War or Winter War levels of incompetence on display here, and the fact is, there’s no Siberians or Zhukov lurking back in the undergrowth to pull Putin out of the shiite he’s wandered into. I don’t think they’ve got the reserves of either manpower or equipment to fix this in the time they’ve got left before it all goes tits-up.
I expect that there will be embargos on Russian energy export before much longer, as the drumbeat of revealed atrocity comes home to the people of Europe. If the Ukrainians are smart, they’ll stage the release of this stuff so it stays at the forefront of the news for weeks on end, and then watch the pressure grow on Western governments. If the Russians keep this crap up, and don’t get out of Ukraine by about mid-May, then I expect them to be in a state of economic crisis the likes of which they’ve never seen before. I would not be at all surprised to see regional figures going rogue, disavowing Putin, and trying to get in good graces with whoever is on their borders, just to keep the lights on. People really underestimate how reliant the Russian economy is on imports, and how much damage is going to be done by embargoes.
Interesting times. You have to wonder who is going to wind up in charge of the nukes?
What let Putin get away with Chechnya?
1: Fighting Muslim terrorists
2: Could keep western press out
3: Blogosphere / social media did not exist to let the Chechens get their side out
4: Breslan was a real game changer for “let Putin kill them all”
Russia having signed the Budapest Accords guaranteeing not to do what Putin’s been doing to Ukraine ever since 2014 has also made Putin’s position a hard sell.
“If there’s a flaw in this analysis, it’s that Putin could change his mind about using conscripts in a heartbeat”
Well, IIUC the reason why Putin made that decision was because the conscripts weren’t doing very good.
Which isn’t surprising, given that their entire time of service, including training, is only 1 year, Correct?
It’s a lot easier being a relatively untrained partisan when you’re fighting in your own country.
“Russia has 35,000 local fighters in Donbas”
Do they have any training? Are they fighting because they want to, or because they were told to?
If they’re only fighting in Donbas, then THEY have the home field advantage. But I read they were being sent elsewhere. Anyone know if that’s true?
It would have been one thing if Putin and his troops had come in with the actual demonstrated intent of “rescuing” Ukraine from the Ukrainian oligarchy and Nazis.
The problem with that being that Putin is KGB, and Russia’s even more dominated by its oligarchs than Ukraine is dominated by their oligarchs (Zelensky could never have won in Russia). So it would take some really stupid people to fall for that
Greg… Thing I was getting at is what it demonstrates of the Russian mindset, which is entirely of a piece with the old Imperial German idea of Schrecklichkeit, or “frightfulness”. The Germans thought it a good idea, in order to overawe the peasantry, and what they got in return for their policies was unleashed horror on their own soil at the end of WWII. Even the Western Allies were a little less than kind, when it came to policy and dealing with them. The Soviets? LOL… Yeah, great idea, Adolf–Perpetrate a policy of rape and plunder on the Soviet territories, then lose the war. I wager that there are any number of German women who’d preferred not to have voted for him, come 1946.
Putin unleashed the hounds of war, with the expectation that the horror they brought would be helpful to pacifying Ukraine. As it is transpiring, all he really managed to do was piss off the Ukrainians at the Russians even more, and to drive them even further from Russia. If the Ukrainians didn’t have a separate national identity before February 24th, then they sure as hell have one now. And, I don’t see it weakening or going away any time soon.
Russian forces are likely screwed, in the medium and long term. They are going to have a hard time extricating themselves from the Ukrainian tar-baby they stuck their hands into, and I wouldn’t rule out the Ukrainians re-taking most of the Donbas once the Russian forces collapse–Which I suspect they’re a lot closer to than many would credit.
Supplying an army is hard, and it is even harder when you’re stupid about it. Russian logistics are manpower-intensive, and that eats into combat capability because you’ve got men doing what forklifts do in the Western armies. The situation is analogous to Antarctic exploration–After a point, the ponies and dogs eat more fodder and food than they’re worth, in terms of what they can haul. Similarly, the amount of manpower the Russians have to devote to resupply operations is only going to go up, and the fact that the majority of the equipment they’re pulling out of what they thought were war stocks that’s just not capable of being easily put back into operation…? Yeah. The fact that all those Donbas troops are running around with Mosin-Nagant rifles from before and during WWII? That’s what a poker player would call a “tell”.
The Russians lost this war in the first 72 hours, when they failed with their decapitation blow. The fact that they can’t admit it to themselves, and are still digging at the bottom of the hole they’re in? Another tell; rational professional military people are not running this cluster-fark of an operation. If there were any, they probably got shot the moment they recommended cutting their losses and getting out. The Russian Army in Ukraine is a wasting asset, right now, and the longer they stay in-country and the more atrocities get committed by them, the worse it will be for Russia. Long-term, the smartest thing they could do would be to get out, declare peace, pay the Ukrainians reparations, and then try to recoup their losses over the next few decades. I doubt they’re going to do that, so what is most likely to happen is they’re going to keep doubling-down on stupid, brutally kill a bunch more Ukrainian non-combatants, and earn Russia international pariah status on the order of Nazi Germany. This is going to end badly for them, and it will only get worse the longer they persist in trying to “win”. As attitudes harden, watch what happens–Odds are very good that you’ll see what was Russia collapse into regional fiefdoms that ally with whatever power is closer. I’d wager that the Finns might wind up with a de facto return of Karelia and other depressed northern regions, while much of Siberia winds up going Chinese.
They can’t keep this up, economically or demographically. Putin has been a long-term disaster for Russia, and his end-game is pathologically insane. God knows how many more Russians are going to die, as he attempts to play politics with their lives.
He might pull this off, but only if the rest of the world plays stupid and lets him. I don’t see that happening, not with all the pressure that people are going to put on their governments, once the atrocities get publicity and traction. I don’t think Putin quite realizes that this isn’t the 1990s, anymore, and that the sort of thing he did in the Chechen wars can’t be hidden. Also, there’s the minor issue of the Chechens being perceived as a bunch of vicious primitives, while when you look at Ukraine, it’s all little old ladies, women, and kids. The optics are far different… It’s kinda the difference between collecting for endangered species: Nobody gives a damn about endangered cockroach species, but them panda bears…? They’re photogenic as hell, and people get all sorts of concerned about them. That’s the difference between Chechnya and Ukraine, one that I think Putin failed to comprehend. So long as the Ukrainians maintain their position as the noble plucky underdog, Russia is going to suffer under sanctions and international disdain. This will play out however it plays out, but I don’t think it’s going to accrue much in the way of benefit to the Russians.
Also, Chechnya was inside Russia’s borders. Ukraine was clearly a sovereign nation with internationally recognized boundaries, despite the fact that Russia had already bitten off a couple of pieces.
There are some major cultural differences, too–In the Chechen mindset, the brutality demonstrated by Putin was a net plus for him. The Chechens see that sort of thing as being “strong”, and identify with a leader that does that sort of thing, which is why so many rallied to Putin’s side after the war was over. They like being with the winners, see…
In Ukraine? Talk about a badly calculated move; all he’s done is play into the sense of Ukrainian persecution by the Russians/Communists/Whoever. Brutality with them is not going to have the same sort of long-term effect that it had with the Chechens–The Chechens actually admire Putin for what he did to them. The Ukrainians? Dear God… They’ve been nurturing a deep and lasting hatred for all that is Russian since about the late 1920s, when the early days of the Holodomor started cranking up. This stuff is just going to harden attitudes and push them further away, probably irrecoverably so, from Mother Russia. Who they’re coming to view as an abusive bitch that can’t be trusted.
It would have been one thing if Putin and his troops had come in with the actual demonstrated intent of “rescuing” Ukraine from the Ukrainian oligarchy and Nazis. They could have done this by sending all sorts of signals, like helping little old ladies find shelter and doing all the touchy-feely sort of thing that you do as a military in these situations. Instead, they chose the precise opposite path, and that’s going to resonate. Russian conduct is going to ripple out across the entire issue, and it ain’t going to be helpful to their cause in any way, shape, or form. If anything, I think it’s going to earn them international pariah status for a long time to come, with all that implies for future Russia.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: This is Russo-Japanese War or Winter War levels of incompetence on display here, and the fact is, there’s no Siberians or Zhukov lurking back in the undergrowth to pull Putin out of the shiite he’s wandered into. I don’t think they’ve got the reserves of either manpower or equipment to fix this in the time they’ve got left before it all goes tits-up.
I expect that there will be embargos on Russian energy export before much longer, as the drumbeat of revealed atrocity comes home to the people of Europe. If the Ukrainians are smart, they’ll stage the release of this stuff so it stays at the forefront of the news for weeks on end, and then watch the pressure grow on Western governments. If the Russians keep this crap up, and don’t get out of Ukraine by about mid-May, then I expect them to be in a state of economic crisis the likes of which they’ve never seen before. I would not be at all surprised to see regional figures going rogue, disavowing Putin, and trying to get in good graces with whoever is on their borders, just to keep the lights on. People really underestimate how reliant the Russian economy is on imports, and how much damage is going to be done by embargoes.
Interesting times. You have to wonder who is going to wind up in charge of the nukes?
What let Putin get away with Chechnya?
1: Fighting Muslim terrorists
2: Could keep western press out
3: Blogosphere / social media did not exist to let the Chechens get their side out
4: Breslan was a real game changer for “let Putin kill them all”
Russia having signed the Budapest Accords guaranteeing not to do what Putin’s been doing to Ukraine ever since 2014 has also made Putin’s position a hard sell.
“If there’s a flaw in this analysis, it’s that Putin could change his mind about using conscripts in a heartbeat”
Well, IIUC the reason why Putin made that decision was because the conscripts weren’t doing very good.
Which isn’t surprising, given that their entire time of service, including training, is only 1 year, Correct?
It’s a lot easier being a relatively untrained partisan when you’re fighting in your own country.
“Russia has 35,000 local fighters in Donbas”
Do they have any training? Are they fighting because they want to, or because they were told to?
If they’re only fighting in Donbas, then THEY have the home field advantage. But I read they were being sent elsewhere. Anyone know if that’s true?
It would have been one thing if Putin and his troops had come in with the actual demonstrated intent of “rescuing” Ukraine from the Ukrainian oligarchy and Nazis.
The problem with that being that Putin is KGB, and Russia’s even more dominated by its oligarchs than Ukraine is dominated by their oligarchs (Zelensky could never have won in Russia). So it would take some really stupid people to fall for that
Greg… Thing I was getting at is what it demonstrates of the Russian mindset, which is entirely of a piece with the old Imperial German idea of Schrecklichkeit, or “frightfulness”. The Germans thought it a good idea, in order to overawe the peasantry, and what they got in return for their policies was unleashed horror on their own soil at the end of WWII. Even the Western Allies were a little less than kind, when it came to policy and dealing with them. The Soviets? LOL… Yeah, great idea, Adolf–Perpetrate a policy of rape and plunder on the Soviet territories, then lose the war. I wager that there are any number of German women who’d preferred not to have voted for him, come 1946.
Putin unleashed the hounds of war, with the expectation that the horror they brought would be helpful to pacifying Ukraine. As it is transpiring, all he really managed to do was piss off the Ukrainians at the Russians even more, and to drive them even further from Russia. If the Ukrainians didn’t have a separate national identity before February 24th, then they sure as hell have one now. And, I don’t see it weakening or going away any time soon.
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