It can be hard to determine the truth in any war zone, especially one like Ukraine where honest, English-speaking reporters seem to be thin on the ground. Sometimes people are trying to be accurate and get things wrong, and others fall for propaganda, like Snake Island and the “Ghost of Kiev.” (I use pro-Ukrainian examples here because most Russian propaganda has been unbelievable, clumsy, and poorly executed (and the last two apply to so many aspects of Russia’s illegal war of aggression)).
Example the first: A commenter mentioned that Stingers sent to Ukraine had shown up on “black markets all over the world.” Possible, but I hadn’t heard anything about it. I went searching, where I found this piece:
On September 17, 2022, a worrying claim circulated on social media: FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) were reportedly available for sale online in Germany.
According to the post, which was picked up by prominent figures in Russia, authorities were alerted by a student in Bremen and “local journalists” found that the systems originated in Ukraine and were “meant for the Kharkov counteroffensive”.
A short video was posted alongside the tweet, showing what appears to be a partially disassembled Stinger system with its Identification friend or foe (IFF) antenna missing. The feet of several people in paramilitary clothes can be seen in the footage, and a German voice can be heard in the background.
he posts received thousands of likes and shares, including from the Deputy Representative of Russia to the United Nations Dmitry Polyanskiy, who suggested that delivering weapons to Ukraine was backfiring.
English language coverage has not been widespread, but Russian media published numerous articles with differing variations of the claim. Some add that this is not the first time that Stingers have appeared on the European black market.
However, many others state that weapons provided to Ukraine by NATO countries have been discovered on black markets across the world. All the articles claim that the case resulted in “a scandal” in Germany, attracting the interest of authorities, the media, and spurring discontent among its citizens.
But further down, we find this:
The articles and social media posts refer to German authorities having supposedly intercepted a deal and apprehending the culprits. However, no statement about such an operation has been posted by any of Germany’s law enforcement agencies.
The posts also mention that local German journalists investigated and determined that the weapons were meant for the Ukrainian offensive. However, there is no proof that this took place, and the story was not covered by any prominent German media outlet.
Responding to a Twitter post sharing the video, Lars Winkelsdorf, one of the leading German arms trafficking experts, dismissed the claim.
“At the moment, nothing like that has been found by the authorities, nor have I found anything like this through my own research,” Winkelsdorf said.
The original source of the report seems to be the Journalisten friekorps Telegram channel, which is billed as a “channel for honest journalism”.
“Our task is to help the German state and the German people. The people must be united, Germany must be free,” the channel’s description reads.
One of the Telegram posts state that the channel is created by the team behind Socialharmony.de, an initiative which lists discontinuing arms shipments to Ukraine and stopping support to Ukrainian refugees among its main goals.
Conclusion:
It can be stated, with a high degree of certainty, that the claim regarding FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS being shipped to Ukraine and found on the German black market, is false.
The claim states that the weapon dealers were apprehended by German authorities, yet the German police denies being involved.
The video, provided as evidence, contains a sound recording that was filmed in January 2022. The letters from Ukrainian authorities, provided as a confirmation of connection with Ukraine, also appear to be counterfeit.
Finally, claims that the case was highly prominent and even resulted in a scandal in Germany, do not appear to hold water. This was only covered by social media channels of dubious origin and several sensationalist websites.
So that one we can chalk up to propaganda followed by the social media game of telephone.
The next example is from two sources on the Russo-Ukrainian War that are usually pretty solid.
First up, Suchomimus (whose videos I’ve feature a lot here) has a report on an attack on a Russian headquarters barracks in Melitopol that may have killed some 200 officers:
I thought I’ll take a look at last night’s strike on a Russian barracks in Melitopol. I guess most of you have seen the news by now, as this was a pretty major incident reports are saying around 200 soldiers were killed in this strike.
Snip.
Let’s take a look at the site itself this graphic was put together by a Twitter user TheIntelCrab. Now, a few sources online have said that the strike was of a Melitopol Christian Church. That is not exactly accurate. It was near there, but instead, it hit the area circle to the left, which was being used by the barracks.
Here’s a screen cap:
So it didn’t hit the church itself. Now, this is quite interesting. These photos here of some of the rooms at this place. This was a luxury resort. A few people say it was a spa.
Suchomimus goes on to explain why such luxurious accommodations were probably used by officers. “If this was indeed officer’s accommodation, then this is a even more important strike than realized, especially for numbers of 200 gone are accurate.”
The Guardian reports on the story, using much the same pic:
But here’s Ukraine News TV (“Josey here”) with his daily update, including reporting various strikes in Russian occupied territory:
At 1:38 in, he notes “explosions as well at the airport at Simferopol, so a little bit into the the middle of the peninsula.” Part of this screen cap should look familiar:
That fire behind that distinctive gate looks awfully familiar, doesn’t it?
CNN is also reporting the blast in Simferopol, so presumably that actually happened as well. Later in the video (starting about 7 minutes in), Josey reports on the Melitopol strikes, noting a wide range of estimates for casualties, stating “possibly 200-300.” So that’s mostly in accord.
The most likely explanation is that Josey simply grabbed the wrong image for the Simferopol image. These things happen.
But it’s a reminder that war news reporting (including my blogging) is an aggregation of already aggregated sources one or more steps removed from the actual front lines. Everything you see or hear about it deserves at least a basic level of judicious skepticism.
Tags: Germany, Media Watch, Melitopol, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Simferopol, Suchomimus, Ukraine, video
“Everything you see or hear about it deserves at least a basic level of judicious skepticism.”
Including stories that “disappear” or get denied. I highly doubt the Germans or the Americans want stories about weapons systems going missing to circulate, and will stomp hard to make them go away.
Given that the US Congressional Democrats have refused to support auditing of what happens to all the Ukraine aid money, anything could be happening. Anything. (Not that you should trust the audit results if they were to magically occur.)
Believe none of it. And believe all of it. You’ll have virtually zero chance of knowing what’s going on. And it’s designed that way. War porn.
Were there any Stingers amongst the armaments that FJB left in Afghanistan?
Doubtful, as the Taliban had no air force. If there were in, they may have been left over from us equipping the Mujaheddin with them in the 1980s.
How long are the volatiles (that is, the explosives and rocket motors) in those things good for? Any such weapons would be almost a half century old.
The explosives and rocket motors are good for a lot longer than the batteries and the coolant charges are. I’d say that they’re the last things to go, actually.
Then, too, you have to worry about the “bit rot” as the electronics decay, with the solder growing whiskers of tin, and the resistors going out on the boards. Acquaintance of mine was a Quality Assurance guy for Army munitions, and he was brutally honest about the longevity of many of our key systems, when it came to the electronics. You don’t keep up on those things, they fail. And, you almost have to remanufacture them on a decadal cadence; it’s not like the old days, when your ammunitions stocks were viable virtually forever.
And, as a reminder… Even the old days were kinda… Interesting. You leave a container full of ammo exposed to Middle-Eastern sun for a year or two, with temperatures inside reaching 120-150 degrees? Even your bone-simple munitions like small arms ammo are going to experience “issues” with chemical changes and degradation to the propellant. The more modern the ammo, the less longevity it has.
Hell, an EOD guy was telling me that they were pretty sure that at least one high-profile incident stemmed from something like cosmic ray damage to the electronics, based on the telemetry. The more complex this stuff gets, the more issues it has.
And, at some point, we’re gonna be dealing with AI-assisted munitions like the sentient bomb in Dark Star, which means that EOD is gonna have to add “Psychology of AI systems” to their training syllabus. Ought to be great fun, trying to talk a suicidal bomb system down off the ledge, or persuading one that is the exact opposite (do we even have a term for that, yet…?) to go ahead and kill itself and the target it was given.