This is some pretty freaking big news.
Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to lead Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in polling for the 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a new survey released on Wednesday.
The poll conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University puts Paxton up 43 percent to Cornyn’s 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup among likely GOP primary voters.
The poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters, which is a pretty decent sample size this far out. The demographics of the poll (page 3) slightly oversamples women but otherwise isn’t too far out of line, and that mild oversample shouldn’t skew things Paxton’s way.
The race is already one of the most anticipated across the country with tens of millions of dollars expected to be spent just in the primary.
If Congressman Wesley Hunt (R-TX-38) — who is flirting with a run himself and is already running personal ads across the state — is thrown into the mix, Paxton polls at 34 percent to Cornyn’s 27 percent and Hunt’s 15 percent. Hunt is behind Paxton head-to-head by 30 points, while he’s only 8 points behind Cornyn.
Net favorable ratings among those Republican voters show Paxton at +46, Cornyn at +23, and Hunt at +30 — with 46 percent of respondents saying they don’t know enough about the last to have an opinion.
Cornyn has the highest percentage, 23 percent, of GOP respondents who said they would never vote for him, and Paxton has the highest percentage, 42 percent, of those who would “definitely consider” voting for him.
Half of GOP respondents said that an endorsement by President Donald Trump is likely to influence for whom they ultimately vote.
The survey included net favorable ratings for six potential 2026 U.S. Senate candidates — three Republicans and three Democrats — which showed among likely general election voters:
Colin Allred: +7, with 17 percent unknown Ken Paxton: EVEN, with 12 percent unknown Beto O’Rourke: -6, with 8 percent unknown John Cornyn: -8, with 14 percent unknown Joaquin Castro: +7, with 40 percent unknown Wesley Hunt: +9, with 53 percent unknown
I really only want to focus on the Republican numbers but, man, sure seems like Texas voters are suffering from Beto fatigue, doesn’t it?
All three Republicans are ahead of each potential Democratic candidate in head-to-head matchups, with the closest margin coming between Paxton and Allred, the former being 2 points up on the latter.
So far, the only two candidates in the race are Cornyn and Paxton, while Allred, O’Rourke, and Hunt have publicly stated their consideration of a run; Castro has only been evaluating the prospect behind the scenes.
I often say that polls this far out are meaningless, but a poll showing a challenger up big over an entrenched incumbent is the exception to that rule. The usual dynamic is that potential donors sit on the sidelines when a challenger goes after an entrenched incumbent out of fear that they might be throwing their money away. A poll result like this, showing Paxton significantly ahead of Cornyn, is likely to knock those fundraising spigots wide open. If memory serves, at this point in 2011, Ted Cruz was polling single digits against David Dewhurst.
Some will point out that Paxton, having successfully run statewide before, goes into the race with significantly more statewide recognition than the average challenger. This is true, but it wasn’t sufficient for Kay Baily Hutchison in her 2010 gubernatorial run against Rick Perry; save one margin of error 2 point lead for Hutchison, the polls in the race constantly showed Perry ahead. Likewise, it didn’t help George P. Bush in his primary attempt against Paxton in 2022, and I don’t remember a single poll showing Bush ahead.
Some readers have been asking for an update on this race. Well, now you have one. Cornyn is in serious trouble.
Tags: 2026 Election, 2026 Texas Senate Race, Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Beto O'Rourke, Brad Johnson, Elections, John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, polls, Republicans, The Texan News
“polls this far out are meaningless,” though it is a favorability poll rather than a “who will you vote for” poll. Still, as you say, “Cornyn is in serious trouble” which must be why i see ads for Cornyn on tv.
or maybe they’re about Cornyn. I have two impressions about them. 1. Cornyn has been a loyal supporter to Trump. and 2. Keep his feet to the fire. The message isn’t particularly clear.
Cornyn stabbed gun owners in the back.
We need to make an example of him so that other senate RINOs get the message.
George P. Bush probably had his own case of Bush family fatigue. Plus Paxton has been much higher profile the GP Bush was in whatever office he held (Land Commissioner? RR? I don’t even know.)
And every time Paxton sued the Biden administration, it showed that he was willing to fight the Dems, not just be a RINO like Cornyn.
I first met Cornyn in 1998 when he ran for Texas attorney general. I enthusiastically supported him then and in 2002 when he first ran for Senate in 2002. After that? I was a delegate to the 2022 Texas GOP State Convention and enthusiastically joined in the booing of Cornyn when he spoke there.
The *only* reason I would vote for Cornyn in the 2026 primary would be if Paxton dropped out of the race and Beto decided to switch parties and run in the primary as a Republican against Cornyn. I’m happy with what Paxton has done at Texas Attorney General, and will gladly support his run for Senate.
Thanks for the update. Cornyn’s a snake. Anyone who voted to confirm Ketanji “I don’t know what a woman is” Brown-Jackson(?) should be retired and sent out to pasture.
When Kay Bailey ran against Rick Perry, I voted for Perry because both politicians were where I wanted them to be. Cornyn is a snake I’ve wanted to vote out of office for years now.
Last primary he had, Lugar had just been knocked out in Indiana in a real shocker. The Republican Texas senator primary was turned into a clown car, with so many entries, no one candidate could get traction. I’m sure that was by design. With Paxton in the primary this time, Cornyn should be toasted.
It is never too late for Cornyn to do the right thing and withdraw. Who am I kidding? He’s John Cornyn. When faced with the right thing to do; he’ll do anything else.