Among the many tools in President Trump’s negotiation frame is the classic choice of carrots or sticks. Last week, Operation Midnight Hammer delivered a whopping great stick pounding by obliterating Iran’s nuclear program. Trump followed that up with a ceasefire and offering the carrot of lifting sanctions if Iran would return to the negotiating table to work out a deal. (If you hadn’t noticed, Trump loves deals.)
Rational actors, having just had the snot bombed out of them, would have leapt at the opportunity, if only to buy themselves some time while negotiations dragged on.
The Mullahs of Iran, with the irrational idee fixe of destroying Israel, choose not to avail themselves of this opportunity.
Trump was not pleased.
Complete text:
Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie, it is not so. As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie. His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, “THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!” In fact, in the final act of the War, I demanded that Israel bring back a very large group of planes, which were heading directly to Tehran, looking for a big day, perhaps the final knockout! Tremendous damage would have ensued, and many Iranians would have been killed. It was going to be the biggest attack of the War, by far. During the last few days, I was working on the possible removal of sanctions, and other things, which would have given a much better chance to Iran at a full, fast, and complete recovery – The sanctions are BITING! But no, instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more. Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them. They are always so angry, hostile, and unhappy, and look at what it has gotten them – A burned out, blown up Country, with no future, a decimated Military, a horrible Economy, and DEATH all around them. They have no hope, and it will only get worse! I wish the leadership of Iran would realize that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!
Maybe now Trump will give Israel the greenlight to take out Khamenei and the rest of Iranian leadership.
It seems that Iran’s leaders have an insatiable appetite for sticks…
Tags: Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Jihad, Military, nuclear weapons, Operation Midnight Hammer, sanctions
Fox News’ lead story tonight shows the Iranians starting to dig out Fordow.
Maybe the Ayatollahs know something we don’t?
Or they refuse to recognize what seems to be obvious.
It’s certainly cheaper to dig a bit and make certain than restart from scratch.
Deep installations in which dangerous tasks are performed like Fordow usually have excellent communication and data links with the surface. The data links are usually connected to an array of sensors underground which report hazardous conditions so rescuers/firefighters can be prepared when emergencies happen and no one down below responds. Fire, smoke, radiation, oxygen, and seismic sensors would be the most likely sensors in this case.
Those data links could have been cut, but they could well be reporting.
“Maybe the Ayatollahs know something we don’t?”
Given they knew nothing of Fordow’s destruction until the B-2s had safely left Uranian air space, thus seems a lot like wishcasting. Iran has been decisively crushed, losing critical personnel and infrastructure to the combined might of Israel and the USA.
You’ll just have to find some other bad guy to root for.
“You’ll just have to find some other bad guy to root for.”
Am less interested in optics than you are. The Iranian nuclear program must be stopped cold. You just want to revel in topical destruction.
The Ayatollahs are digging at Fordow because they believe that America and Israel have declared victory; and have gone home fat, dumb, and happy. You encourage them in this belief. They also seem to believe that something in Fordow is worth digging up, or digging into.
I expect them to dig it up and salvage anything that can be salvaged; were I in their robes, I would do the same. But I am not sanguine they will find anything significant to salvage. And if the IDF retains air superiority as they have said they will do, it seems unlikely that the mullahs will be able to restart a nuclear weapons program without getting it bombed quickly.
But I strongly suspect none of us is in a position to know, and if we were, we would be constrained by our oaths to be silent. Time will tell.
“Am less interested in optics than you are.”
??? You are forever preening about your mathematical proficiency and superior strategic insights.
The Ayatollahs are digging at Fordow because they believe that America and Israel have declared victory; and have gone home fat, dumb, and happy.”
Fordow was not destroyed by fat, dumb and happy sky jockies. The intelligence apparatus that planned this operation had detailed information of the site’s layout and functional capabilities. These were then precisely targeted and destroyed.
If anything of value is salvaged from the ruins, the same intelligence operatives who gleaned the necessary data for a successful air strike will similarly discover what was recovered and it’s military significance.
“Fordow was not destroyed by fat, dumb and happy sky jockies. The intelligence apparatus that planned this operation had detailed information of the site’s layout and functional capabilities. These were then precisely targeted and destroyed.”
The B-2s targeted the vent system at Fordow because the maximum demonstrated penetration capability of the GBU-57A/B in unreinforced ground is only 61 meters. The depth of the Fordow facility is thought to be somewhere between 80 and 120 meters and the hall roofs are thought to be reinforced.
I can help you with the math here: 19 meters is about 62 feet, a substantial distance. So the USAF targeters tried to increase penetration by riding the vent holes down.
The problem here is vent holes are drilled at some horizontal distance from the halls and connected by laterals. Vents are usually zig-zagged with intermediate traps, precisely to prevent this kind of attack and chemicals/flammables attacks. Riding the vents down may have resulted in explosions hundreds of meters from the halls, even if the GBU-57A/Bs made it to depth. Read the “Good ISIS” after action report.
No one in the United States has any idea whether: 1) the attack on Fordow was successful in breaching the halls, and 2) what exactly was still in the halls of Fordow. The last IAEA verification examination of Fordow was on May 17th.
If these Iranian leaders did not get the lesson well then maybe they need some new leaders. I’m sure Israel would happily help them out.
“I can help you with the math here…”
…and there you go again, preening and demeaning.
“…and there you go again, preening and demeaning.”
Shoe hurts on the other foot, does it?
“The last IAEA verification examination of Fordow was on May 17th.”
IAEA Director-General Raphael Grossi: It’s clear that what happened in particular in Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, where Iran used to have and still has, to some degree, capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.”
So who is to be believed, you or the Director?
“So who is to be believed, you or the Director?”
Same IAEA D-G Rafael Grossi, on NPR Morning Edition:
‘U.N. nuclear watchdog says Iran could enrich uranium again in ‘a matter of months”
June 29, 2025 By Joe Hernandez
“The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog says Iran could begin enriching uranium again within months following an attack by the U.S. military on three of its facilities earlier in June.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. office that inspects countries’ nuclear programs to ensure compliance with nonproliferation agreements, made the comments in an interview recorded Friday and aired on Sunday by CBS’s Face the Nation.
A satellite photo of Iran’s Fordo fuel enrichment facility taken on 24 June shows debris (grey) from a U.S. strike employing several bunker-busting weapons. The Israeli Air Force destroyed additional roads and surface facilities in a subsequent strike.
“They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that,” he said.
Grossi said he believed the facilities that were hit by U.S. bombs suffered severe but not total damage, and added that Iran had other means of achieving its nuclear goals…..”
He is guessing, covering all the bases. And the Iranians are digging.