Reporting from Ukraine says that Russian tank producer Uralvagonzavod has instituted “mass layoffs.”
“Russia’s main tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has announced layoffs of roughly ten percent of its workforce and a freeze on new hires until February, with some internal divisions reportedly losing up to half their staff.” 10% seems oversold for “mass layoffs,” but any layoffs from such a vital defense contractor suggests things are indeed breaking inside Russia’s overheated and over-stressed war economy.
“The cuts go far beyond administrative reshuffling, as insiders cite a combination of crippling factors: sanctions that block imports of Western optics and fire-control systems, exhaustion of stored spare parts, and delayed state payments for ongoing contracts. The company is already behind on deliveries of T-90M and T-72B3 tanks, with workshop activity down by nearly 33% compared to last winter. It’s a chain reaction: without foreign components, upgrades stall; without upgrades, contracts shrink; and without new contracts, entire divisions begin to shut down.”
“The consequences reach far beyond one factory, as Uralvagonzavod, builds and repairs most of Russia’s main battle tanks, including the T-90M and T-72 series that form nearly 80 percent of its active armored fleet. Even a modest ten percent reduction in staff could mean 25 to 30 fewer tanks repaired or produced each month, enough to reduce frontline availability by hundreds over a single year. The reported 50 percent layoffs in some divisions would push output back to pre-war levels, erasing two years of industrial mobilization. Russia has already been losing armored vehicles faster than it can replace them. What is changing now is that they lose the ability to rebuild reserves for massed assaults altogether.”
“The layoffs also highlight a problem at the core of Russia’s war economy, as Moscow is short nearly 5 million workers across key sectors, according to official estimates, and defense plants are among the hardest hit. Skilled welders, machinists, and engineers have been drafted or have fled abroad, while those who remain are aging and overworked, with Russia not having enough to fill the heightened demand. Entire industrial regions from Nizhny Tagil to Ufa now offer 40 to 60 percent wage bonuses and still fail to fill vacancies. The fact that Uralvagonzavod is cutting jobs instead of hoarding them shows the problem is not labor, but resources: a major red flag, as it signals that Russia’s production system is running out of both money and metal.”
“The same pattern is emerging elsewhere, as in Tula and Bryansk, small-arms and component plants have halted production several days each week due to missing parts and unpaid contracts. Workers in Izhevsk report wage delays of up to two months. Ammunition factories in the Urals, which had been running 24-hour shifts, are now cutting back to two. Even the aerospace sector, long prioritized for funding, is postponing engine deliveries for drones and cruise missiles because of alloy shortages. The once-overheated war economy is visibly cooling, showing what happens when political ambition outruns industrial capacity.”
“Overall, the layoffs at Uralvagonzavod are not just an economic footnote; they are a warning sign that Russia’s industrial war machine is reaching its limits. What began as a mobilization boom is turning into a contraction driven by exhaustion, shortages, and overextension. For Ukraine and its partners, this is a strategic opening; a weakened Russian industry cannot sustain a prolonged war of attrition.”
Along the same lines, Covert Cabal, looking at satellite imagery, reports that Russia is drawing down the stocks of their most ancient T-72 tanks.
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“Before the war began, the T72 family was by far the largest stock of any other type of tank in storage. Today, it’s down from the pre-war 2,700 to just over 600, less than 500 of which even have a viable chance of being restored. But what is a lot more interesting is the massive decline in recent months of the oldest T72 variants.” Namely T-72 Urals and T-72As.
“They’ve brought almost twice as many of these old T72s out than any other type of tank this year.”
“Russia in less than a year has removed over 450 of them, about half. And realistically, today it’s probably much higher as we couldn’t find newer imagery of some bases than 4 months old.”
Both bases the Russian use to store old T-72s show significant numbers of them removed.
“Our last count leaves just 188 newer T72Bs and just 141 of all types of T80s remaining in storage. That’s down from the roughly 1,500 of each in storage before the war began. And those that do remain are generally in worse condition. Only a small fraction of those might ever be made viable again.”
“There are several smaller plants, but the one major one we focus on is UVZ.” AKA Uralvagonzavod.
“The number of tanks seen outside over the years has never been more than 100 until this summer. In an image we got from the 4th of November 2025. There now sits 482 tanks out front. Something never seen before. And there’s likely even more inside. Not all these are the old T72s. There are some slightly newer T72Bs along with some T90s. So all evidence points to Russia beginning a major revamp and long-term project of restoring and upgrading these old tanks that will take many years. The problem is after this they really have very little left.”
So we’re left with a mystery: At the same time Uralvagonzavod has a multi-year backlog of tanks to repairs and refurbish, they’re laying employees off. It’s hard to understand why.
Unless, of course, they’ve ceased new tank production entirely…
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If the restoration standard requested by the Kremlin changed from “bring tanks from deep war reserves up to current standards of function including optics and electronics” to “get them to run, move, the gun to fire and elevate, the auto loader to work, and the turret to traverse (the last being optional if they are to become a turtle-tank) then put them on the trains to the front” that could match the overheads.
The plant needs all those nearly-scrap hulls to cannibalize for 1970s parts and put together something. But as you note, if there’s no new production and no western tech retrofitting, they have a lot of line workers with nothing to do, thus the RIFs.
The Russians have been throttling back their military-industrial complex (VPK) since June. The VPK has been outproducing the needs of their warfighters for at least a year. They are building inventories of tanks and artillery shells which are not needed by their forces.
Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov is an astute economist and has been rebalancing VPK output to match warfighter requirements. What economists do. A major reason why Belousov replaced Sergei Shoigu in May of last year. Shoigu was a general bureaucrat and not skilled at these economic decisions.
The resources which were used by UVZ Tekhmash have been redirected to other weapon systems, notably to the ferocious UMPK FABs, which have devastated Ukrainian forces all along the FEBA. The Russians are determined to inflict maximum casualty differentials on the Ukrainians and FABs have proven themselves far more effective than tanks and artillery. This is reflected in the monthy exchanges of dead soldiers’ bodies.
I had always wondered whether Baghdad Bob found gainful employment after 2003. I am happy that he has landed safely in the Ukraine. Now that Ukrainian sources have reported Russia’s defeat five times over, the only question is how much in reparations the chastened bear will pay.
Meanwhile, in an alternate universe, the Ukraine recruits 17,000 to 24,000 per month, depending on how successful the press gangs are (official Ukrainian figures), loses 15,000 to 21,000 (in October) desertions monthly (official Ukrainian figures), and incurs 10,000 to 20,000 casualties per month, depending on the level of fighting, which has really picked up recently (Russian figures). You can choose who you want to believe. I don’t believe any government in time of war but judge the Russians to be in at least observable distance of the truth. It’s a certainty that the Ukraine is throwing into combat green abductees who can’t field strip their rifles to fight to their death while the Russians are able to train their soldiers, who have the luxury of 6 month rotations. The Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are utter fantasy but are repeated by complete stooges like Keith Kellogg, who had Trump’s ear until recently. The ridiculous nature of these estimates are belied by the corpse exchanges, where Russians hand over a thousand bodies and the Ukrainians hand over a few dozen.
In the alternate universe, this will end with Russia in possession of all territory east of the Dnieper and the industry located there, Odessa (making the Ukraine a landlocked failed state), and probably Kiev. The only question is when Zelensky will abscond with his billion and join his cronies and the other crooks and pedophiles with an ethnic non-extradition card in Israel.
“[A] weakened Russian industry cannot sustain a prolonged war of attrition.”
While this is undoubtedly true, the current strategy seems to be aimed at creating gaps in Ukraine ‘s defensive lines. A weakness is identified, it’s pounded with glide bombs and then Russian troops advance to exploit the opening.
However the “troops advance” element has to be done quickly before the defenders can regroup and form new resistance. This they have failed to do because motorized brigades have been forced to advance through a withering fire of FPV drones, artillery and mines.
This has led to the destruction of of Russia’s formerly numerous tank assets and the drawdown of poorly maintained reserves. Even if it takes Ukraine several years to successfully challenge Russia’s VKS, there is adequate time to field Sweden ‘s Gripen.fighter jet and the French-made Rafale, to say nothing of F-16s.
Ivan cannot walk to Kiev in time to overcome the development of Ukrainian air superiority against the continued threat of Russian glide bombs.
“And let’s not forget that the T-14 has been a no-show. Remember the T-14?”
Russia has a different management over their military-industrial complex than we do. The Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation has final say on weapon system production based upon inputs from everyone from the combat arms, to the manufacturers, to the raw materials suppliers.
The Military-Industrial Commission suspended the T-14/T-15 program in March 2022. The decision was primarily due to cost (relative to the T-90M), but the weight of the T-14/T-15 was also well over acquisition intent. Experience in Ukraine suggests that UVZ will have to significantly reduce the weight of the T-14/T-15 or it will not be produced after the war concludes.
GDLSD is promising evaluation examples of the M1E3 late next year. It is a reasonably faithful copy of the T-14.
“Any idea why Uralvagonzavod does not just source from China?”
The Chinese have carefully observed their policy of neutrality in the Russo-Ukraine war. They have strictly embargoes the export of military goods to either party. Chinese dual use items, such as FPV drones and raw materials, are reaching both sides, mostly from third countries.
Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group – Factory 617 – was actually set up with technical guidance from UVZ. UVZ considers Factory 617 to be behind the times technically, especially in its ability to weld high hardness armor.
If the restoration standard requested by the Kremlin changed from “bring tanks from deep war reserves up to current standards of function including optics and electronics” to “get them to run, move, the gun to fire and elevate, the auto loader to work, and the turret to traverse (the last being optional if they are to become a turtle-tank) then put them on the trains to the front” that could match the overheads.
The plant needs all those nearly-scrap hulls to cannibalize for 1970s parts and put together something. But as you note, if there’s no new production and no western tech retrofitting, they have a lot of line workers with nothing to do, thus the RIFs.
Also I am surprised that the Uralvagonzavod factory has not made Ukraine’s deep target list.
The Russians have been throttling back their military-industrial complex (VPK) since June. The VPK has been outproducing the needs of their warfighters for at least a year. They are building inventories of tanks and artillery shells which are not needed by their forces.
Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov is an astute economist and has been rebalancing VPK output to match warfighter requirements. What economists do. A major reason why Belousov replaced Sergei Shoigu in May of last year. Shoigu was a general bureaucrat and not skilled at these economic decisions.
The resources which were used by UVZ Tekhmash have been redirected to other weapon systems, notably to the ferocious UMPK FABs, which have devastated Ukrainian forces all along the FEBA. The Russians are determined to inflict maximum casualty differentials on the Ukrainians and FABs have proven themselves far more effective than tanks and artillery. This is reflected in the monthy exchanges of dead soldiers’ bodies.
And let’s not forget that the T-14 has been a no-show. Remember the T-14?
I had always wondered whether Baghdad Bob found gainful employment after 2003. I am happy that he has landed safely in the Ukraine. Now that Ukrainian sources have reported Russia’s defeat five times over, the only question is how much in reparations the chastened bear will pay.
Meanwhile, in an alternate universe, the Ukraine recruits 17,000 to 24,000 per month, depending on how successful the press gangs are (official Ukrainian figures), loses 15,000 to 21,000 (in October) desertions monthly (official Ukrainian figures), and incurs 10,000 to 20,000 casualties per month, depending on the level of fighting, which has really picked up recently (Russian figures). You can choose who you want to believe. I don’t believe any government in time of war but judge the Russians to be in at least observable distance of the truth. It’s a certainty that the Ukraine is throwing into combat green abductees who can’t field strip their rifles to fight to their death while the Russians are able to train their soldiers, who have the luxury of 6 month rotations. The Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are utter fantasy but are repeated by complete stooges like Keith Kellogg, who had Trump’s ear until recently. The ridiculous nature of these estimates are belied by the corpse exchanges, where Russians hand over a thousand bodies and the Ukrainians hand over a few dozen.
In the alternate universe, this will end with Russia in possession of all territory east of the Dnieper and the industry located there, Odessa (making the Ukraine a landlocked failed state), and probably Kiev. The only question is when Zelensky will abscond with his billion and join his cronies and the other crooks and pedophiles with an ethnic non-extradition card in Israel.
“[A] weakened Russian industry cannot sustain a prolonged war of attrition.”
While this is undoubtedly true, the current strategy seems to be aimed at creating gaps in Ukraine ‘s defensive lines. A weakness is identified, it’s pounded with glide bombs and then Russian troops advance to exploit the opening.
However the “troops advance” element has to be done quickly before the defenders can regroup and form new resistance. This they have failed to do because motorized brigades have been forced to advance through a withering fire of FPV drones, artillery and mines.
This has led to the destruction of of Russia’s formerly numerous tank assets and the drawdown of poorly maintained reserves. Even if it takes Ukraine several years to successfully challenge Russia’s VKS, there is adequate time to field Sweden ‘s Gripen.fighter jet and the French-made Rafale, to say nothing of F-16s.
Ivan cannot walk to Kiev in time to overcome the development of Ukrainian air superiority against the continued threat of Russian glide bombs.
Any idea why Uralvagonzavod does not just source from China?
“And let’s not forget that the T-14 has been a no-show. Remember the T-14?”
Russia has a different management over their military-industrial complex than we do. The Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation has final say on weapon system production based upon inputs from everyone from the combat arms, to the manufacturers, to the raw materials suppliers.
The Military-Industrial Commission suspended the T-14/T-15 program in March 2022. The decision was primarily due to cost (relative to the T-90M), but the weight of the T-14/T-15 was also well over acquisition intent. Experience in Ukraine suggests that UVZ will have to significantly reduce the weight of the T-14/T-15 or it will not be produced after the war concludes.
GDLSD is promising evaluation examples of the M1E3 late next year. It is a reasonably faithful copy of the T-14.
“Any idea why Uralvagonzavod does not just source from China?”
The Chinese have carefully observed their policy of neutrality in the Russo-Ukraine war. They have strictly embargoes the export of military goods to either party. Chinese dual use items, such as FPV drones and raw materials, are reaching both sides, mostly from third countries.
Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group – Factory 617 – was actually set up with technical guidance from UVZ. UVZ considers Factory 617 to be behind the times technically, especially in its ability to weld high hardness armor.