Reporting from Ukraine says that Russian tank producer Uralvagonzavod has instituted “mass layoffs.”
Along the same lines, Covert Cabal, looking at satellite imagery, reports that Russia is drawing down the stocks of their most ancient T-72 tanks.
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So we’re left with a mystery: At the same time Uralvagonzavod has a multi-year backlog of tanks to repairs and refurbish, they’re laying employees off. It’s hard to understand why.
Unless, of course, they’ve ceased new tank production entirely…
If it seems like we’ve already covered this topic this year, it’s because we did. But there seems to be more evidence now, with Russian tanks reported as non-existent on many fronts.
Reporting from Ukraine:
Here, the Russian armed forces ran out of tanks after months of reckless frontal assaults against fortified Ukrainian positions. The multi-layer Ukrainian defense destroyed thousands of Russian armored vehicles and depleted even the Soviet stockpiles that many thought were endless.
On July 8, the Ukrainian General Staff reported an extraordinary battlefield statistic: zero Russian tank losses. Rather than indicating a successful tactical shift, this unprecedented figure underscores Russia’s critical shortage of operational tanks. Russian units simply no longer possess enough tanks to risk losing them in frequent frontal assaults. Mechanized attacks, once the hallmark of Russian offensives, have nearly disappeared, replaced entirely by small-unit infantry actions and increasingly improvised tactics.
Months of relentless, suicidal assaults have decimated Russia’s armored capabilities. Especially in Donetsk and Toretsk, hundreds of Russian tanks have fallen easy prey to Ukrainian FPV drones, anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, and extensive minefields. This staggering attrition has far outpaced Russia’s capacity to replace battlefield losses.
Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s main tank producer, can currently manufacture no more than 20 to 25 new T-90M tanks monthly. Even though Russia increased production slightly from about 17 tanks per month in 2023 to roughly 25 by 2025, this limited output remains negligible compared to ongoing combat losses. Additionally, Russia has historically relied heavily on refurbishing Soviet-era models from storage, such as T-72’s, T-80’s, and even older T-62’s and T-55’s. Yet refurbishment capabilities have dramatically declined as stocks of viable stored tanks dwindle. Previously able to restore about 80 to 100 tanks per month in 2023, this number has dropped significantly to approximately 30 to 35 per month by early 2025. As a result, Russian frontline units rarely deploy tanks unless it involves an isolated, high-priority operation.
I treat Reporting from Ukraine assertions with a grain of salt. But The Military Show is also reporting that Russian tank participation in assaults has all but disappeared:
Covert Cabal, whose tank counting videos we’ve featured over the years, says that many formerly active bases now appear to be “ghost towns.” There are still some equipment at bases near NATO countries, but the Moscow military district appears pretty bare, which, given it’s historic role at discouraging coups, is pretty unusual.
If Russia is essentially out of tanks and other armored vehicles to send to Ukraine, it’s hard to see how his grinding meatwave assaults can eke out enough territorial gains to continue advancing, especially with more U.S. weapons flowing to Ukraine.
Maybe Putin should have taken trump up on his negotiations offer. Without armor, Russia may end up losing all its ill-gotten territorial gains in the next year…
This post has been a long time coming.
When Russia launched its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine in February of 2022, Russia was thought to have as many as 10,000 tanks in it’s inventory, including vast numbers of older Soviet-era armor.
Covert Cabal has been regularly tracking the depletion of Russian tank reserves using satellite imagery. Four months ago, they put out a video counting tanks remaining in Russian depots:
Their initial satellite images showed a total of 6107 tanks in all depots in 2021, whereas their most recent count only shows 3,345. However: “Virtually every one of these tanks left is in absolutely horrible condition. Before the war it was probably closer to 50/50, but those good ones since have been the ones that were grabbed from storage first.” They also note that the initial number was almost certainly higher than the ones they could count, as they were probably better vehicles stored in garages. They estimate that pretty much all of those are now gone.
By at least one estimate, those 10,000 theoretical tanks have already been destroyed.
“Ukraine’s general staff claims that 9,760 Russian tanks have been destroyed.” Oryx says 3,690 have been destroyed, but those are only the ones they can visually confirm. And some of those tanks are very old indeed. (Russia even deployed World War II howitzer earlier this year. )
“The situation has gotten so bad as of January 2025 that many resort to attacking in any vehicle on which they can get their hands.”
Which brings us to today’s Suchomimus video of a recent Russian assault:
“Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to break through using 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars.”
If Russia is launching assaults without a single military vehicle to provide firepower or protection, that suggests that they’re nearing the end of their stockpiles of tanks and BMPs. Sending such pathetically equipped troops into the teeth of drone-armed Ukrainians is tantamount to admitting their meatwave attacks are merely suicide missions.
This suggests that all usable Soviet-era tank stockpiles have finally been depleted.