By now I assume that you’ve seen or read about Tucker Carlson’s piece on video footage that fatally undermines much of the Democratic Party’s “January 6th Insurrection” dogma.
Instead of rehashing that (Tucker has a wee bit more media reach than I do), here’s a video of Joe Rogan and Michael Malice reviewing the footage.
The biggest takeaway for me is that, while Rogan and Malice are not conservatives, they are far from people who unquestionably accept left-leaning media at face value. For them to be shocked at things that anyone who was paying attention knew no later than, oh, say, January 7, 2021, that there was no “insurrection” at the capital, just a half-assed riot, is actually somewhat surprising.
The mainstream media lies about so many things, so much of the time, that it’s easy to believe one of their narratives about a situation you simply weren’t paying attention to at the time.
Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom…and evidently truth as well.
Ukraine has stepped up its drone attacks against a wide spectrum of Russian military infrastructure targets.
“Ukrainians are reportedly attacking objects from St. Petersburg to Krasnodar, which is a 2,000-kilometer front line in the air.”
“Ukrainians have also reportedly accompanied the drone attack with a cyberattack on the Russian regional missile detection system.”
They also hit an oil depot in Tuapse, for which Suchomimus has a video:
That’s way beyond the Kerch Strait Bridge. Back to the first video.
“The Russians have also closed the sky near St. Petersburg. After Russian detection systems were set off, Russians reportedly used interceptor jets to eliminate the threat.” That’s more than 1,000km from Kiev, which must have Russian air defense planners freaking out. (Or drinking even more heavily than usual.)
The hit a number of targets in Crimea, though many of the drones launched there were shot down, and some were hijacked by Russian electronic warfare countermeasures. (Cue a Cory Doctorow-esque rant about the need for strong encryption.)
“Some analysts are saying that Ukrainians are just testing Russian air and electronic defense systems, and are creating an elaborate map for building more sophisticated trajectories. After they finish, these analysts are predicting a much larger scale attack, which would cause a lot of destruction of the airfields, as well as oil refineries and factories producing military equipment.”
“The second camp of analysts is saying that the goal of these attacks is to disperse Russian air defense that has been greatly concentrated on the fronts.”
Reporting from Ukraine is usually pretty solid and seems to have sources inside Ukraine’s defense ministry.
Here’s a video from Samir Puri and the Imperial War Museum that echoes something Nicholas Moran said ten months ago, namely that the tank is not obsolete on the modern battlefield, it’s just that the Russians are using them wrong.
Takeaways:
Russia, despite a century of data, isn’t using tanks properly in combined arms operations in concert with infantry, artillery and close air support.
Ukraine is, though much of their close air support has taken the form of drones. “These unmanned aerial vehicles have proved very effective especially against slow-moving Russian armored convoys.”
“We don’t really see this kind of tight combined arms operations being mounted by the Russians. They really struggled to do this. Instead, what we saw were quite disconnected Russian elements, and that meant that often the Russians were moving into positions it was still very well defended that hadn’t been softened. Which is why as the war has moved on sixth, seventh, eighth month [this video came out two months ago], the Russians have changed tack very much to I guess quite brutal indiscriminate bombardment of the cities they want to take.”
“There are no massed tank battles for which the Cold War T-72 was designed. In fact, engagements in Ukraine are on a much smaller scale with platoons and companies clashing together rather than divisions and corps.”
“There has also been an absence of close air support, a crucial tool for supporting tanks as part of combined arms operations. There was a lot of aerial activity, there was a lot of dog fighting as well, early on in the in the invasion. But the aerial defense systems that both sides have gotten and can deploy to cover their their more fixed positions are effective enough that the attrition rate amongst combat aircraft has risen. And the Russians interestingly appear to be husbanding the resources of their air force.”
“In the early months of the war, Russia had little infantry with which to protect its tanks, particularly in urban settings. That that allowed small groups of Ukrainians to mount what almost seemed like guerrilla operations. Getting in close to Russian armor and taking them out with anti-tank guided missiles before they knew what was happening.”
“Russia has now launched a much larger mobilization of manpower to try and fix this problem, but with many of its best troops and equipment already expended, there are questions about the quality, supply, and morale of these new soldiers.”
“The fact that the Ukrainians are actually able to capture intact or largely intact T-72s is a testament to the Russian logistics. Meaning that you find in captured Russian equipment low supplies, some Russian PWOs complaining of a lack of lack of proper support from their headquarters and have simply given up or run away.”
Drone warfare has also made it much harder for Russia to use tanks in a traditional defensive role in static positions on systems of defensive trenches.
Though Russia’s forces have shown some small signs of increasing technical competence in various areas, the fact that they lost so much armor attacking Vuhledar shows that they still have a long way to go when it comes to staging competent combined arms operations.
The Tank Museum has a video up covering five tanks being sent to Ukraine (Challenger 2, T-72, Leopard 2, Leopard 1, and the M1A2 Abrams).
Some of this will be familiar to regular readers, but I did learn a few new nuggets:
Despite previous reports that we were sending M1A1 Abrams to Ukraine, we’re actually sending more modern M1A2s. No word on which SEP level, but I would bet against the most modern SEP3 package, as not all America’s own active armor has been retrofitted with that yet.
I didn’t realize Germany had also given the greenlight to ship older Leopard 1s to Ukraine. The 105mm rifled gun is probably undergunned vs. T-72 and newer Russian tanks, but should be able to punch through older tanks and pretty much all Russian BMPs. They’ll be useful for second echelon and infantry support roles. (And we might consider demothballing older 105mm gunned M1s to ship to Ukraine as well.)
I didn’t realize that only some 440 Challengers had been built.
Here’s some spectacular slow motion footage of various rifle calibers hitting a steel plate at 250,000 frames per second. Rounds tested include .223, 5.56 NATO, 300 Blackout, 7.62×39 (the AK-47 round, but out of an AR pattern rifle), 7.62×54 (Mosin–Nagant), .308, and our old friend, .50 BMG.
A few notes:
5.56 NATO seems to pack more punch than 300 Blackout, which is strangely unimpressive.
You can actually see the shadow of the shock cone from the 7.62×39, which is pretty cool.
The fireball from the Mosin–Nagant is huge!
The .50 BMG is shot from a Noreen 50, which I don’t think I’ve seen before (on video or in person).
The .50 BMG punches through the ballistic steel plate and destroys the wooden backstop. You can see the shockwave distortion pass in from of the camera.
The fireball from the .50 BMG muzzle break is a lot more noticeable at 250,000 fps compared to 33,000 fps.
After talking to his government sources, Peter Zeihan thinks that we won The Great Balloon War, having gained valuable insights by capturing Chinese tech, and that the entire episode is another symptom of high level CCP dysfunction.
Some takeaways:
“What the Chinese were technically trying to do: They were doing overflight of a lot of our military bases, specifically our ICBM launch facilities, because the Chinese are new to having a nuclear deterrent.”
“Remember that as early as the 1970s, the United States had over 30,000 nuclear weapons, about one-third of which would have been deployed by missile. Now, with arms control treaties and the post-cold war environment, we have slimmed that down to just a few hundred.” Here Zeihan is wrong. The declared number of nuclear warheads the United States possesses is 3,750, but those numbers don’t count tactical nuclear weapons. Including those yields an estimate in the 5,500 range, though some 1,800 of those are slated for dismantlement.
“But the United States has a deep bench of experience in building and maintaining these things and the Chinese simply don’t.”
“Balloons are big, they’re slow moving, you can’t maneuver them very well, they’re obvious.”
He reiterates his theory that Xi has purged any possible successor and surrounded himself with slavish yes-men.
“It just never occurred to me that they could be that dumb. Well, turns out the rampant stupidity that is taking over decision making in Chinese policy has now reached a bit of a break point.”
“The Chinese have lost the ability to coordinate within their own system.”
“The Americans were reaching out to the Chinese, and the Chinese refused to take the call because they didn’t know what to say, because they couldn’t get directions.”
“The bureaucracy is seized up…there’s really only two types of people left: Those who will do nothing unless they are explicitly instructed to do something, or those who are True Believers.”
He doesn’t think that the Chinese got anything from balloon observation of our missile silos they couldn’t have gotten from satellites.
“The whole time U.S. hardware was tracking that balloon, tracking its emissions, taking digital renderings of the entirety of the structure, and, oh yeah, yeah, just just so we’re, clear this one’s not a weather balloon, this thing was 300 feet wide. That’s a big ass balloon. That’s like an order of magnitude bigger than weather balloons.”
“The equipment that was hanging from the bottom of the balloon, the payload was bigger than an Embraer [jetliner], and there were long range antennas and listening devices and computing capacity and solar panels on this thing, along with some propellers.”
“The diplomatic system seized up because the truth was so obvious, but the Chinese diplomatic corps had no idea that this was going on.”
He asserts that it we shot it down over Montana, there’s a good chance people would die, which is simply not the case, since there are vast stretches of Montana with very minimal population. (See also: the Columbia explosion.)
“We’re getting a better look at spy equipment out of China, and their capabilities, and their emissions, and how they handle information, and what they’re looking for, as a result of this incident than normally you would have gotten after a one or two year probing effort using more traditional methods.”
Zeihan and his sources either missed or omitted a more likely explanation for China’s spy balloon, mainly that they were more interested in signals intelligence and threat response communication than photographing ICBM silos (though they might well have done some of that too). Because radio waves bounce off the ionosphere, that’s the sort of information you can’t get from satellites. Maybe the point of the exercise was intended to see what sort of signals they could capture when we scrambled assets to take a look at them.
Still an incredibly stupid thing to do, but more purposely stupid than Zeihan gives them credit for.
Despite increasing sanctions and scrutiny on hostile Chinese business practices and intellectual property theft, private equity firms have previously managed to mostly evade scrutiny for taking Chinese money. That may finally be changing.
Takeaways:
“The US is starting to wise up on Chinese investments. It’s been cracking down by closing loopholes But not all the loopholes have been closed, Which means China could be getting US trade secrets.”
“Better late than never. This feels like your grandparents finally learning how to unplug and plug back in the WiFi router. Shouldn’t have taken this long to figure out something so obvious, but glad they eventually got there.”
“After years of letting China buy up sensitive US technology, property, and companies, the US government is finally putting its foot down. In 2018, Trump signed the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act, or FIRRMA. This changed how the Committee on Foreign Investment, or CFIUS, screened investments in the US for national security issues.”
“Before, CFIUS could only review foreign investments if they resulted in a controlling stake. Now CIFIUS can review any investment.”
“When Biden got into office, he ordered CFIUS to look at all investments that affect critical aspects of the US supply chain, or Americans’ personal data, and several other things.”
“As you might imagine, this has not gone over well with Wall Street, which loves Chinese money more than Snoop Dogg loves marijuana.”
“‘Wall Street now stands as an increasingly lonely voice arguing for more engagement with China.’ This was going on even as China was taking a wrecking ball to its economy with its zero covid policy, committing genocide against an ethnic minority, and selling the organs of political prisoners for profit. Find someone that loves you the way Wall Street loves Chinese money. They’re ride or die…and the people that die are political prisoners.”
“Private equity and venture capital firms were able to get an exception granted in FIRRMA for limited partners. That means that if a foreign entity becomes a limited partner in, say, a private equity fund, CFIUS doesn’t have any jurisdiction over it. Should have seen something like this coming. Finding loopholes is what Wall Street does best.”
“The type of investments that private equity firms are involved in means that Chinese companies could get access to critical technology. Stuff that could affect national security. Portfolio details could hold national economic or intelligence value.”
“The China Investment Corporation or CIC. At $1.3 trillion US dollars, it’s the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. ‘CIC has said repeatedly that it separates commercial activities from governmental functions and makes its investment decisions independently.'”
“CIC’s board of directors includes representatives from the Chinese government.”
“CIC’s Deputy General Manager Qi Bin has explained that cooperation with developed economies is to be leveraged to obtain advanced technology.”
“CIC is also partnering with large investment companies, like Goldman Sachs, Japan’s Nomura Holdings, and France’s BNP Paribas. CIC’s Deputy General Manager Qi Bin has talked about leveraging these partnerships for the ‘win-win’ ‘mutual benefit’…of Chinese companies. Somehow I’m getting the sense that “win win” has a different meaning in China. I think in English we would call this ‘short-term win for long-term loss.’ I’ll give you my money and you give me your trade secrets.”
There’s finally some efforts for CFIUS to close private equity loopholes.
Pardon me if I express deep skepticism that the Biden White House will actually constrict the inflow of Chinese money…
Given that the original video generated doubts as to its veracity, I thought I would post this followup that goes into more detail about Ukraine’s low-cost suicide drone/loitering munition.
These look considerably less jury-rigged than the previous drones.
“These are publicly funded…Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense made a public appeal for donations to buy 1,000 of these.”
There seem to be different types with different warhead sizes. “The technical details are a bit vague. I’ve seen mentioned ranges of just two kilometers to over 10 kilometers.”
We see the successful attacks, but not the failures.
“These cost around 200 to manufacture, so they’re also extremely cost effective.” Indeed, even more cost-effective than my original estimates.
Velma, if you haven’t heard, is HBO Max’s “re-imagining” of the animated Scooby-Doo TV show. And by “reimagined” I mean “mangled and mutilated to fit the angry, narrow confines of social justice warrior ideology.”
Since I don’t have cable, I can’t go out of my way to watch it for the sake of reviewing it, so let’s let The Critical Drinker take a whack at it:
If that weren’t enough, let’s let Ryan George of Pitch Meeting also take his turn at bat:
The original Scooby-Doo is hardly going to go down in the annals of television as a classic on the order of Hill Street Blues or I Love Lucy, but it was a solid, wholesome kid-vid TV show that made good use of its limited animation budgets to produce solid, fondly remembered shows that the franchise was strong enough to survive decades of tweaks (“with special guest Don Knotts”), soft reboots, a series of unlikely direct to video movies…
…two “meh at best” live action movies, and even inflicting The Vile Abomination on American viewers.
Even apart from the social justice idiocy, throwing away that legacy for derisive belittlement is just wrong. Moreover, these projects never seem to be profitable or even well-received (remember the disasterous Land of the Lost remake with Will Ferrell?). If you don’t treat the source material with a due amount of respect, all you’re doing pissing off generations of people that grew up watching the originals.
This sort of thing is natural meat for The Critical Drinker, who delights in tearing into Social Justice crap. But the pointed Pitch Meeting takedown seems far more significant, as George has never been one to wade in culture war commentary.
