Posts Tagged ‘Ted Cruz’

The Washington Post Discovers Ted Cruz

Friday, June 17th, 2011

Washington Post writer Aaron Blake pays serious attention to Ted Cruz, and his role as Tea Party favorite. It’s a decent write-up for an out-of-state MSM outlet playing catch-up, but there are several statements about which I have at least some minor quibbles.

For example, take this sentence

That’s because he’s emerging as a potential top-tier candidate in the Lone Star state race, posing a real tea party threat to better-funded candidates in what should be one of the most expensive primary races in the country.

There’s two things wrong with that sentence:

  1. Cruz isn’t “a potential top-tier candidate,” he’s arguably already the frontrunner.
  2. Saying that he’s “posing a real tea party threat to better-funded candidates” suggests that there are, in fact, better-funded candidates. Leppert only has more money on hand thanks to a $1.6 million loan (discounting loans, in Q1 Leppert pulled in slightly over $1 million, and Cruz pulled in slightly under $1 million), and even then the rest of Leppert’s fundraising relied heavily on max contributions from a limited number of Dallas-area donors. So Cruz is about as well-funded as anyone in the race right now. (Would Lt. Governor David Dewhurst change that if he jumped into the race? If he really wanted to commit a substantial portion of his personal fortune (consistently rumored, without verifiable attribution, to be around $200 million), yes it would.)

Likewise his suggestion that Leppert is one of the “big boys” (outside of Dallas, his profile is no bigger than Cruz’s) seems misguided.

Then there’s this:

Dewhurst is the prohibitive favorite if he gets in, and Leppert has made a big splash early with his fundraising. But many conservatives aren’t waiting for Dewhurst—choosing instead to rally around Cruz.

I think “prohibitive favorite” overstates the case a bit (I would use “formidable”), but the idea that conservatives have ever “waited” on Dewhurst is off-base.

As so many other Republican politicians do, Dewhurst occupies that vast gray area between a RINO (think Arlen Specter before he went The Full Benedict) and a real movement conservative. The phrase “a self-described ‘George Bush Republican'” appears, unsourced, in his Wikipedia entry (and thus is automatically suspect), and sums up the feelings of many conservatives towards Dewhurst. He ran as a conservative, and mostly governed as a conservative, but every now and then he would go off on Big Government tangents that would infuriate proponents of limited government. Despite this, outside the state, Dewhurst is regarded as something of an “arch-conservative” for shepherding through the (constitutionally-required) 2003 redistricting.

I wouldn’t go so far as to compare him to Charlie Crist (as some have), but there’s been real dissatisfaction with Dewhurst among movement conservatives, and it came to the fore with this year’s legislative sessions, where, despite having controlling majorities in both House and Senate, conservative Republicans found their agenda being thwarted in many ways great and small by Dewhurst in the Senate and Speaker Joe Straus in the House. Hence state senator (and possible U.S. Senate candidate) Dan Patrick’s lashing out at Dewhurst for thwarting his anti-TSA goping bill. Dewhurst managed to get the big things done (i.e., getting a budget passed without a tax hike), but there’s a sense among conservatives that he could have gotten a lot more conservative bills passed if he really wanted to, and that he “left money on the table” in the game of legislative poker by compromising when he didn’t have to

So it’s not at all surprising that Dewhurst is viewed as a stanch conservative when viewed from inside the Beltway; by Washington, D.C. standards he is. But there’s a widespread sense among Texas conservatives that they should be able to elect a full-bore movement conservative to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, and that David Dewhurst isn’t that guy. There was a good deal of debate over whether Ted Cruz or Michael Williams was the preferred choice; with Williams getting out of the race to run for a House seat, the issue has been resolved in Cruz’s favor, as indicated by his impressive array of endorsements.

Still, those quibbles aside, the WaPo piece is a pretty solid look at Cruz, and is well worth reading for those following the Texas Senate Race.

(In the future, Brooks might want to run this sort of piece by Jennifer Rubin, who has a lot better grasp of the nuances of conservative politics than most MSM observers.)

Texas Senate Race Updates for June 15, 2011

Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

A few Senate race updates. Ted Cruz is turning a very good week into a very good month:

  • First off, Cruz gets some serious love from George Will.
  • Cruz also appeared on Fox Business News:

  • The Houston Chronicle rounds up news of Cruz’s recent successes.
  • Did you know that Tom Leppert compared himself to Obama, and his city-owned hotel plan to the stimulus, to a group of Young Democrats in 2009? He also answered a questionnaire for them during his Mayoral campaign.
  • A little bird passed me the flyer for a Michael Williams fundraising event for his Congressional campaign today at noon at The Coronado Club in Houston. Word is that he’s waiting until the District 33 lines are finalized by the legislature before officially dropping his Senatorial bid.
  • Roger Williams will address a Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans this weekend. As will Michael Williams (assuming he doesn’t drop out as part of refocusing on that Congressional campaign). As will Rick Perry. Hmmm, seems like quite the event. I may need to go next year, since it’s closer and cheaper than CPAC. Plus New Orleans beats the hell out of DC any day…
  • Texas Senate Race Updates for June 12, 2011

    Sunday, June 12th, 2011

    Another roundup of Texas Senate race news:

  • Here is the video for the Republican Senatorial candidate forum I attended Wednesday:

  • And here’s the follow-up Q&A session they’re not showing on KRLU:

  • Here’s the Statesmen‘s report on the forum.
  • And here’s a report on the Forum from Miss Lizaface, a blogger I am unfamiliar with (linked from Texas Iconoclast).
  • The Fort Worth Star-Telegram‘s J. R. Labbe is shocked, shocked that all the contenders for the Republican Senate nomination at the forum sounded like Republicans rather than those “courageous” tax-hikers the liberal media is always carrying water for.
  • You have to admire the pithy concision of this line: “State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, would be hard to beat in a bid for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released today by state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston.” Iconoclast is unimpressed. “Pretty much everyone I talk to scoffed at the numbers regardless of who they work for or whether they like Patrick.”
  • Ted Cruz’s campaign recruits Liberty Institute President Kelly Shackelford and former Attorney General Ed Meese as Chairmen of Cruz’s statewide and nationwide Leadership teams, respectively.
  • Hotline on Call suggests that if Perry entered the Presidential race, it would benefit Tom Leppert most by tying down David Dewhurst and uniting moderate Republicans behind his campaign. I find their logic unpersuasive. In Texas, moderate Republicans have shown a strong ability to write checks, but not much luck in defeating high-profile, well-funded conservatives. If they were able to do that, Kay Bailey Hutchison would be governor right now…
  • Democratic longshot Sean Hubbard makes his pitch to the Daily Kossacks on why they should support him over Ricardo Sanchez. Honestly, it’s pretty weak sauce, full of generic “I’ll be a good Senator and listen to my constituents” stuff. He also put up this missive to the Kossacks, which has more liberal talking points of the sort that will please that crowd. But it’s woefully short of what he has to do to even get on the radar. As an underfunded longshot, he pretty much has to be attacking Sanchez every single day from the left if he wants to gain even the tiniest bit of traction in the race. No one beyond hardcore political junkies have even heard of him or realize he’s running at this point. If he can’t change that he’s going to continue being Mr. Irrelevant, despite the fact that Sanchez could very well be vulnerable to a serious challenger on his left flank.
  • Here’s a piece on Senate candidates attending Tea Party events.
  • I’m linking to this piece mainly to mock it, as it looks like the text in the link above has been automatically translated into another language, and then back into English, and then posted without any editing. “Hе accepted thе credentials οf thе forums wіƖƖ contrariety depending οn thе hosting organization, bυt generally any claimant wіƖƖ margin qυеѕtіοnѕ frοm a regressive row acted bу attendees аnԁ thе panelists themselves. Each forum іѕ approaching tο final аbουt dual hours.” Even by the standards of content-scrapping linkbait zombie sites this is peculiar…
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones interviewed in The Jarrell Star Ledger. I’m just happy Jarrell has a newspaper, given the tragic affinity tornadoes have for the place…
  • Finally, one bit of non-news: We’ve been hearing for over a week that Michael Williams was getting out of the Senate race to run for the newly created Texas 33rd Congressional District, an idea buoyed by his absence from the candidate forum on Wednesday. However, Williams has not publicly confirmed or denied the information on either his website, his Facebook account, or his Twitter feed. I can understand weighing your options, but this complete silence on the issue after you’ve already sent out a fundraising solicitation for the congressional race seems a bit odd…
  • Quick Impressions of the Texas Senate Debate

    Wednesday, June 8th, 2011

    I attended the Texas Tribune Republican Senate Candidate Forum tonight, and thought I would post a few quick impressions before I have to walk my dog.

    Three of the four candidates came across as prepared, articulate, polished and effective speakers, and all four tried to portray themselves as tea party conservatives:

  • Ted Cruz was the most polished of the four, as you would expect of the former Texas Solicitor General. He was very good not only at making his points, but also expertly tying highlights of his career and life-story (like his work on 10th Amendment issues for the Texas Public Policy Foundation, and his father fleeing Castro’s Cuba [see here for correction]) into answers without it seeming forced. His only drawbacks were that every now and then he would seem just a little bit too polished, his pitch modulations a little too calculated, and he needs to add a few touches of humor liven things up. (His one recycled Reagan anecdote isn’t going to cut it.) With Michael Williams out, I think Cruz cemented his status as both tea party favorite and frontrunner.
  • I have not made any secret of my doubts as to Tom Leppert‘s new-found conservative convictions, but he comes across as a very polished and prepared speaker. He says that he cut a lot of unnecessary programs as Dallas Mayor; when I get a chance, I’m going to ask his campaign for a list. If you didn’t know about his previous record, you would think him just as conservative as his compatriots. He did have a couple of weaknesses as a public speaker: shrugging and spreading his hands was his go-to move for almost every question. He also displayed a sort of nervous eye-twitch between questions, maybe because of the bright stage lights. But guess what? There are going to be a lot of bright stage lights between now and March…
  • Roger Williams had the most varied performance: He has an engaging, natural personality (with just the right touch of rough-hewn “old coot” country charm) and can clearly hold his own against his more polished opponents, but he went back to his “I’m a small businessman” routine two or three times too many, and too transparently. On the other hand, Williams also got the best laugh lines of the night. Referring back to an earlier question about how he’d eliminate the budget deficit in one year (he didn’t think the Ryan plan went far enough), in a question on the the EPA’s attempt to take over Texas air quality, he said “You know that 1.6 trillion I’d cut out of the deficit? The EPA would be among them.” Williams probably improved his standing the most of any candidate attending.
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones…look, I’m not going to sugarcoat this. Jones should get out of the race. It wasn’t her message (she made effective conservative points), it’s the fact that she was a cringingly bad public speaker tonight. I can’t tell if it’s nervousness or an actual speech impediment, but her voice sounded like it was trapped at the back of her soft palate, almost as if she had all her wisdom teeth yanked a week ago and was still getting use to her own mouth, and late in the debate she seemed to have a slight lisp. She spoke like someone who was so eager to talk that the words all tried to come out in a rush at once, causing her to stumble over herself, stop and start, and generally sound nervous; way too nervous for someone that already holds a major statewide office. She calmed down a little bit after the first couple of questions, and occasionally made good points (“I have to fight the EPA every day”), but she was far and away the weakest candidate on stage by a good measure. And her “I was down in the trenches” refrain (mostly dealing with her time in the legislature) got even tireder than Williams’ small businessman shtick. Between this and her abysmal fundraising numbers, I see no hope for Jones in this race and no reason she should continue in it. She’s doing a good job on the Railroad Commission, and she should probably stay there for the immediate future.
  • Not a lot of policy differences on display. All agreed not to raise taxes under any circumstances (I wondered why moderator Evan Smith didn’t ask any of them “Not even in the event of a World War with China?”), all were on-board with the Ryan plan or an even more immediate cutback in federal spending, all for greater border control measures and against amnesty, all pro-life (one of Jones’ most effective moments), all more national energy exploration, all against earmarks, all slamming Obama.

    Enough for tonight. I’ll post more tomorrow if I have the time.

    Texas Senate Race Updates for June 2, 2011: Michael Williams to Drop Out?

    Thursday, June 2nd, 2011

    Some updates in the Texas Senate Race, including one big shakeup if it pans out:

  • The Texas Tribune is reporting that Michael Williams will drop out of the Senate Race to run for a newly created congressional seat in House District 33. Given the strong fundraising advantage Ted Cruz has held over him, this might be a good move on Williams’ part.
  • Speaking of Williams, he’s posted his own tax return.
  • Ted Cruz wins endorsement from Dick Armey’s Freedomworks.
  • He also picked up an endorsement from the Club for Growth. (Hat tip: The Race to Replace KBH.)
  • From Rollcall comes this Tom Leppert news: “With $2.6 million in the bank at the end of March, he has hired Mike Slanker as general consultant, Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies as pollster, Scott Howell for media and Majority Strategies for direct mail.”
  • Speaking of Leppert, here’s an interview with him from February 11, 2010, and another one the Texas Tribune did with him back on October 29, 2010.
  • And speaking of the Texas Tribune (they’re all over this update), there will be a debate among all the major declared Republican candidates on Wednesday, June 8th, at KLRU studios in Austin. RSVP on that page if you want to attend.
  • Texas Senate Race Updates for May 27, 2011

    Friday, May 27th, 2011

    It being the Friday of a long weekend, I doubt terribly many people are going to be reading this, but there have been some significant Texas Senate race developments:

  • Houston State Senator (and former sports caster) Dan Patrick is considering running for the Senate seat currently held by Kay Baily Hutchison. He was rumored to be considering a run back when Hutchison announced her retirement in January, but he’s been mum on the issue during most of the current Texas legislative session. He announced that he was forming an exploratory committee on Laura Ingraham’s talk radio show this morning. As anyone who reads this blog knows, he’s joining a crowded field, but he does fill the niche as a full-bore cultural Christian conservative that none of the other declared candidates (save longshot Glenn Addison) really fill. With Ted Cruz and Tom Leppert already off to significant head starts, Patrick will have to do some serious fundraising if he wants to be competitive. Patrick might benefit from some confusion with the other sportscasting Dan Patrick. Many Houston TV viewers remember Patrick as a sportscaster from the “Luv Ya Blu” era Houston Oilers era of the late 1970s and early 1980s. (I have vague memories of Dan Patrick being thrown out a door during a dust-up with then Oilers quarterback Dan Pastorini, but I may be misremembering one or both of the people involved.[2014 Update: Actually, I talked to Dan Patrick, and while he watched it happen, it wasn’t him, but rather Houston Post reporter Dale Robertson, who Pastorini threw out.]
  • Speaking of Addison, he’s complaining that The Texas Tribune is excluding him from an upcoming debate. Actually, I can see both sides on this issue. Certainly The Texas Tribune, as a private organization, can use any criteria they want to determine who a “serious” candidate is, and the one they chose (someone had to have raised at least $100,000 by March 31) is both objective and defensible. Plus the more crowded any debate, the less time potential voters have to assess any one candidate. On the other hand, the idea that fundraising should be the only gating factor in determining electability is entirely too reductive for a robust democratic process. My suggestion? Have the political equivalent of a “play in” game. Reserve one spot for a declared candidate who does not meet the $100,000 threshold criteria (Addison, Lela Pittinger, Andrew Castanuela, or Sean Hubbard) and then let people vote online for who to include. That would give the longshots a chance to be seen, and add interest to the proceedings…
  • Michael Williams recently traveled to Washington, D.C. to raise money for his campaign.
  • Williams also appeared to answer questions from the NE Tarrant Tea Party. Pssst, NETarrantTeaParty1: It’s called a “tripod.” Invest in one.
  • Ted Cruz wins a straw poll of Houston Republican women. However, he gets dinged by The Race to Replace KBH for an ad misrepresenting that straw poll win as an endorsement (Republican Women’s Clubs bylaws forbid endorsing primary candidates). The ad was corrected shortly thereafter.
  • Speaking of Cruz, he got some serious love from Terry Jeffrey over at The Heritage Foundation’s Townhall.
  • Roger Williams appears on the Matt Lewis show. Williams comes on just after eight minutes in.
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones slams the Obama administration for their energy policy. “The demand for oil is not going away just because some bureaucrats have the ill-conceived or ill-informed idea that all our energy needs can be met by green energy.” I still don’t think Jones has a real chance in the race, but she seems strongest when talking about oil and gas issues. Maybe it’s a good thing that she hasn’t resigned from the Railroad Commission…
  • She also gets profiled in the Round Rock Leader.
  • LinkSwarm for May 17, 2011

    Tuesday, May 17th, 2011
  • Conceding defeat graciously, Wisconsin Democrat style: “Please put your things in order because you will be killed and your families will also be killed due to your actions in the last 8 weeks.”
  • The Madison Project endorses Ted Cruz. “All things being equal between Ted Cruz and Michael Williams, we have chosen to endorse Ted Cruz for his ability to raise the kind of money it takes to win a primary like the one in Texas.”
  • What if the federal budget was a single family’s budget?
  • Rick Perry considering a Presidential run?
  • LinkSwarm for Friday, May 6, 2011: Immigration, the NYT, and Tom Leppert’s SEIU Ties

    Friday, May 6th, 2011

    A small LinkSwarm for a lazy Friday:

  • Mickey Kaus: “Why do these Democrats tell pollsters that immigrants are a burden because they ‘take our jobs’? Maybe because they do. Just a thought.”
  • The New York Times gets the Texas Senate Race, well, not quite right. “So far, only Republicans have declared in the Senate race.” False. Political neophyte Sean Hubbard has declared for the Democratic nomination, and has been filing his campaign financing reports with the FEC. “At least seven Republicans are vying for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.” Technically true but incomplete; there are five declared major candidates (Ted Cruz, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and Elizabeth Ames Jones), three declared longshot candidates (Glenn Addison, Andrew Castanuela, and Lela Pettinger), one withdrawn candidate who filed her wind-down report with the FEC (Florence Shapiro) and one undeclared potential frontrunner (David Dewhurst). Saying “At least seven” makes me wonder exactly who you’re counting…
  • The Race to Replace KBH on Senate candidate Twitter antagonists. “Big fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite them/And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so on ad infinitum…”
  • From the same source we also learn that Leppert asked for, and received, the endorsement of the far-left SEIU.
  • More on Leppert’s SEIU support from the horse-mouth, SEIU Texas political coordinator Shannon Perez in the lefty Dallas Observer:

    “The Republican primary voters of the state of Texas need to know the truth about Tom Leppert.
    When he first ran for Mayor, as a moderate and a supporter of working men and women, he was pro-SEIU, pro-public employees organizing, pro-collective bargaining.
    So committed to these ideals was Tom, that he vigorously pursued SEIU’s endorsement.
    So committed to these ideals was Tom, that he came to our union organizing launch in the Water Department — encouraging folks to join SEIU. So committed to these ideals was Tom, he frequently threw on an SEIU T-shirt and came to our union hall…Tom even signed an SEIU membership card!

    Tom, Tom, Tom, it makes it hard to take your Second-Coming-of-Ronald-Reagan rhetoric seriously when stuff like this keeps tumbling out of your closet. Is it too late for you to switch to the Democratic Primary? You’ve already got a huge lead over Sean Hubbard…

  • More Texas Senate Race Fundraising Nuggets and Race Tidbits

    Thursday, May 5th, 2011

    Though the aggregate FEC totals have been up for a little while, the FEC has finally put up the lists of individual contributors to examine.

  • Ted Cruz: The first thing that jumped out at me from Cruz’s contributors was the number of times “Crow” and “Crow Holdings” appears. For those unfamiliar with him, the late Trammell Crow (he died in 2009) was a self-made Dallas construction and real estate billionaire. Having such deep-pocketed backers in Tom Leppert’s backyard is a good sign of his ability to wage a serious, well-funded campaign statewide. He also got out-of-state funding from Chad & Julia Sweet, a Washington, D.C. power couple whose marriage was important enough to make the style section of The New York Times.
  • Tom Leppert: Far and away the biggest name on this list (at least for football fans) is former Dallas Cowboys Hall-of-Fame quarterback Roger Staubach, as well as his wife and two officers of The Staubach Company, the very successful real estate business he founded after retiring from football. Staubach was previously a supporter of State Senator Florence Shaprio’s abortive run, and was himself frequently rumored as a possible GOP candidate back in the 1980s. As the Cruz campaign noted, Leppert’s donations are overwhelmingly from the Dallas area.
  • Michael Williams: Lots of oil and gas money from around the state (which you would hope for from someone on the Texas Railroad Commission). Not as much out-of-state money as Cruz, but some, such as Patton Boggs partner Daniel Addison.
  • Roger Williams: Almost all in-state contributions (nothing wrong with that, if you have enough of them), an awful lot from Ft. Worth, including chain restaurateur Bobby Cox. Though Bush41 has endorsed him, he hasn’t contributed to the Roger Williams campaign.
  • Elzabeth Ames Jones: Mostly from San Antonio, some oil and gas money. The only thing that jumps out at me is she got a $1,000 from a bookstore owner, as it’s amazing to think that someone who owns a bookstore actually had $1,000 to give a candidate. (“How do you make a small fortune owning a bookstore? Start with a large fortune.”)
  • And on the Democratic side, Sean Hubbard (still the only declared Democratic candidate) has, uh, five contributors other than himself. Including what seems to be a husband and wife. And someone else with the last name “Hubbard.”

    In other Senate race news:

  • North Texas Tea Party member Jim Bright ranks the Senate candidates from best to worst. Best: Ted Cruz and Michael Williams: “Both delivered an excellent message.” Worst: Elizabeth Ames Jones (“has the right ideas, but terrifyingly short on specifics, weak on delivery, and long on platitudes. It was a very banal speech.”) and longshot Lela Pittenger (“doesn’t seem to really grasp what we are up against. She doesn’t understand and has no concept of the fight we are in politically.”)
  • According to the Southern Political Report, “Former Comptroller John Sharp, who had previously said he would run for the seat, cancelled [sic] his FEC-authorized fundraising committee in February.” I guess I’ll have to stop dinging him, though he should probably take down his Facebook page.
  • The Race to Replace Kay Baily Hutchison (yes, a blog specifically about the race) says that Tom Leppert is a flip-flopper. He makes much of Leppert’s freindly relations with the gay community, which, to my libertarian-leaning mind, is pretty thin gruel. I’d like to know more about Leppert’s tax hikes and political donations (among other topics).
  • Michael Williams slams Obama for favoring lizards over Texas jobs.
  • All the candidates issued “we’re glad Osama is toast” statements, but I think the best was actually Roger Williams. I think it’s also the only one that mentions radical Islam.
  • Proof that blogging about things you’re not a domain expert in can come back to bite you. Here’s a roundup of Texas 2012 races posted May 4; judging by the author’s description, he hasn’t followed the race for the last two months, since he has John Sharp still in it, and omits Ted Cruz, who has as good a claim as anyone to being the front-runner.
  • The Ted Cruz Campaign On His Fundraising Quarter

    Thursday, May 5th, 2011

    This press release from the Ted Cruz campaign (penned by J2Strategies consultant Jason Johnson) on those Q1 Texas Senate Race fundraising totals makes interesting reading. The classic lawyer advice is “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts.” And since the facts seems very much on Cruz’s side, Johnson pounds them relentlessly and effectively. It’s not that the document is free of spin (it is, after all, a campaign press release), but that the spin which is there is made far more effective by the remorseless logic of the underlying numbers presented and the understated (indeed, respectful) nature of the comparisons made with Cruz’s opponent’s.

    A few high-points, taken straight from the press release:

  • “Cruz raised more than $1 million in 10 weeks, for an average of over $100,000 a week. The campaign received more than 1,100 contributions from over 900 unique individuals in 122 Texas cities and 37 States”
  • “The Cruz campaign raised $1,012,885 and has $965,153 cash on hand.”
  • “Almost all the money [Tom] Leppert raised is from the City of Dallas — a remarkable 78%.”
  • “[Elizabeth Ames] Jones experienced a very challenging fundraising quarter. It is hard to formulate a scenario wherein Jones is able to compete statewide.”
  • The press release takes particular aim at Michael Williams and Tom Leppert, perceiving (correctly, I think) that they are Cruz’s most serious rivals among declared candidates:

    Cruz vs. Michael Williams
    Michael Williams is the only candidate who is seriously attempting to contest Ted for the support of (1) conservative leaders, (2) grassroots activists, and (3) Tea Party leaders. But Michael Williams failed to raise sufficient funds to be able to compete in a statewide primary, especially against multiple candidates who have the ability to self-finance.

  • In Q1: Cruz out-raised Michael Williams by a ratio of 2.5:1. $1,012,885 to $414,119
  • In Q1: Cruz’s cash on hand is nearly four times Michael Williams’s cash on hand. $895,153 to $237,210 (less current debts)
  • In Q1: Cruz received over three times the contributions as Michael Williams (3.3:1.). Cruz: 1,147 Contributions; Michael Williams: 343 Contributions.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 122 Texas cities, compared to Michael Williams’s 70.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 37 States, compared to Michael Williams’s 16.
  • On Facebook, Cruz has 57,293 supporters, compared to Michael Williams’s 7,896
  • The summary points make further comparisons with Michael Williams:

  • In the “sub-primary” to determine the strongest conservative candidate in the race, Cruz is in by far the strongest position. Indeed, numerous national conservative commentators and grassroots leaders publicly (1) expressed concern that Michael Williams could not raise enough funds to run a credible statewide campaign against a deep-pocketed self-funder, and (2) stated that they would choose between Cruz and Michael Williams based in significant part on who could raise the most money to run a strong conservative campaign. Nevertheless, Michael Williams was only able to raise just over $400,000, and in Q1 Cruz raised 2 1/2 times as much.
  • In order to mount a credible statewide campaign in the Republican Primary, a candidate will need at least $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 to communicate with voters from January 2012 through Election Day. Michael Williams is not on a path to raise those funds.
  • To be sure, a candidate with significant name identification among primary voters could conceivably compete with less than $10,000,000. However, multiple statewide polls have demonstrated that none of the current candidates has substantial name ID. Indeed, despite Michael Williams’s having served in a down-ballot elected position for many years, he and Cruz are statistically tied in statewide name ID. With the exception of Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, voters simply do not know any of the candidates, and it will take serious financial resources to change that in a state as large as Texas.
  • In addition to dinging Leppert for his narrow fundraising base, in this press release we also see the beginnings of the “Tom Leppert is a RINO” attack I’ve been anticipating ever since the Dallas Mayor threw his hat into the ring:

    Politically, Leppert’s record as Mayor of Dallas is demonstrably out of step with the values of the Texas primary voters. Indeed, it is difficult to see a credible path for a moderate-to-liberal Mayor of Dallas to win a statewide Republican primary in Texas.

    I’ve been communicating with the Cruz campaign, and recently sent off some questions for the candidate, and hope to put up his answers in the near future.

    Ten months out from the primary, there’s still a lot of race left. Michael Williams has time to right his ship, David Dewhurst has time to decide whether to get in or stay out, and events can undermine even the best-run campaign. But at this point Cruz and Leppert have to be considered the front-runners.