Posts Tagged ‘Republicans’

Cruz Takes All 14 Delegates in Wyoming

Sunday, April 17th, 2016

“Ted Cruz on Saturday won all 14 delegates in the Wyoming GOP convention — a relatively small number but enough for the Texas senator to declare victory and keep GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump from securing the nomination.”

You would think that after the first time this happened, Donald Trump would have gotten his ass in gear and hired someone to work on the delegate selection problem for him. The fact he keeps getting pantsed again and again in the delegate fight suggests either an inability to learn from his mistakes, deep organizational dysfunction on behalf of Team Trump, or both.

And each time it happens, Trump demonstrates, yet again, why he’s not smart and organized enough to be president, while Ted Cruz proves, yet again, that he is…

Add Arkansas to Cruz’s Delegate Conquest List

Wednesday, April 13th, 2016

Ted Cruz does it again:

Ted Cruz’s and Marco Rubio’s supporters have teamed up in Arkansas to pack the state delegation with individuals who’ll turn against Donald Trump in a contested convention.

Since Rubio ended his presidential bid March 15, his network of party insiders has lined up behind Cruz to win delegates who’d vote for the Texas senator once they’re no longer bound to Trump in a floor fight. Trump won Arkansas’ GOP primary March 1 with 32.8 percent of the vote compared to Cruz’s 30.5 percent and Rubio’s 24.9 percent. But Cruz’s canny operatives, with Rubio riding shotgun, is likely to thwart Trump in the delegate election.

Trump’s organization is as sloppy in Arkansas as elsewhere, just as Cruz’s is an efficient machine in state after state. This could ding the Donald, costing him as many as 25 delegates after a first inconclusive ballot. Cruz, who finished with 15 out of the available 40 delegates in primary voting, stands to gain all 16 Trump delegates and the 9 won by Rubio.

Bart Hester, a top Rubio organizer in Arkansas, said he’s filling Rubio’s delegate slate with individuals committed to opposing Trump in Cleveland.

Add this to Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina and Indiana where Cruz has outfoxed Trump on the delegate front. None of this matters of Trump manages to get to 1,237 delegates. But if he can’t get there, Cruz is the heads-on favorite to prevail on a second or third ballot.

Early on delegate selection rules worked in favor of Trump, awarding him about 22% more delegates than he received via a strict proportional vote. Now that Trump’s popularity has nosedived and his momentum stalled, the delegate selection process (and his his own disorganization and ignorance of the process) is working against him as Ted Cruz outflanks and outworks him at every turn.

(Hat tip: Director Blue.)

Why is Donald Trump So Stupid?

Tuesday, April 12th, 2016

I’ve decided to get rich in New York real estate.

I’m going to fly in, get some bank loans, buy up existing old properties, tear them down, build some shiny new condos in their place, and make a mint.

Which properties? Which bank will you get loans from? Who will you hire to do the construction? How will you navigate the labyrinth NYC regulatory codes for property, labor, construction, etc.?

Eh, details. Don’t bother me with details. I’m just going to wing it.

Does this sound foolish to you? Misguided? Naive?

Well, that’s precisely the approach Donald Trump appears to have undertaken in his Presidential race. Now he’s whining that Ted Cruz, who’s a smart, focused guy with a smart, focused team that understands exactly how the process works in each state, is cleaning his clock in actually picking up delegates.

Here’s Rush Limbaugh on why Trump’s claims of “cheating” are bogus:

The one thing that nobody had a heads-up on was how Cruz was going to go into all of these states and arrange to get most of the delegates. We’re talking second and third ballot here. On the first ballot the delegates — for the most part; there are exceptions — are pledged to vote the way the people in their state voted. Pennsylvania, however, is different. Pennsylvania is coming up. You want to know about Pennsylvania? Only 17 out of Pennsylvania’s 70 some odd delegates vote the way voters in the primary go. Some 51, 54, I don’t have the number right in front of me, over 50 delegates in Pennsylvania are unbound, on the first ballot.

Just use an example. If Trump wins Pennsylvania by 75%, he likely will only get 17 of the 60 or 70 delegates, because only 17 are pledged and bound to whoever wins the state primary. Well, Trump has not been working any of these delegates. Why? Who knows. It could be that he didn’t think he had to. It could be he didn’t even know. It could be he had nobody on his staff that really knows how this works.

You do because you have been treated to in-depth explanations of how this whole delegate process works, particularly once we get to second and third ballots. And even I pointed out to you that it’s very possible — we won’t know actually ’til the convention starts — very possible that a lot of delegates that have to vote Trump on the first ballot don’t actually support him. And if we get to second or third ballot then they’ll abandon him and go for whoever. Right now Cruz is calling dibs.

Now, what happened in Colorado is, I’m sorry to say, it’s not a trick. What happened in Colorado is right out in the open. Everybody’s known how Colorado runs its affairs. Everybody has known. Nobody just chose to look at it. It’s no secret that Colorado was gonna have a convention and they’re gonna choose their delegates before the primary. It’s not a secret. It’s just nobody leaked it. Nobody talked about it. Nobody bragged about it. So it was left to be discovered by people who didn’t know. And it turns out that people on the Trump campaign didn’t know.

Now, I can understand how they might feel tricked here. I can understand how they might feel bugabooed because millions of votes, theoretically, are gonna happen that aren’t going to count. Hey, welcome to establishment politics. We have played for you the sound bites on this program of delegates — I’m sorry — of officials, rules committee officials. We played the sound bite of one of these guys that said, “Hey, what you all have to understand is the people don’t select our nominee; the delegates do, we do.” None of this is a mystery. This is the definition of insider versus outsider. This is a classic illustration of how an outsider has to learn the insider game to play it.

His conclusion:

So I don’t see Ted Cruz lying and cheating his way to the convention. I see a lot of hard work. I see some people who know what they have to do, given where they are. They’re in second place in both the vote count and the delegate count. They’re serious about winning. The Cruz team is serious about winning. They have made themselves fully aware of how the process works, and they’ve been out working it for quite a while. They went into Louisiana where Trump scored a massive win but they’ve come out of there with many more delegates than, by appearances, they should have.

Ted Cruz had goals. He worked the problem ’til he got the result he wanted. What he’s demonstrating, folks, he’s demonstrating he knows how to work himself within this insider labyrinth. He knows how to navigate it. He knows how to work it. He knows how to turn it to his advantage. You have to look at this and say, “Okay, what does this tell us about Cruz, if he should become president?” No matter how enamored you are — and a lot of people are — no matter how enamored you are of the notion of a total outsider with no links to the establishment, no links to insider politics, nothing whatsoever, you’re fascinated by that happening, somebody coming in and just totally wrecking the castle, finding out that you can’t do that without getting inside the castle first. ‘Cause people inside the castle are not gonna let you crumble the walls.

You know, being an outsider, it has benefits, but it has drawbacks, too, and knowing the rules inside out and outworking the competition is not cheating. If you happen to be more knowledgeable of how things work and are able to work it to your advantage, that’s just hard work. That isn’t cheating.

Trump never tires of reminding us all how smart he is. But if he’s so smart, why hasn’t he hired smart people who know exactly how the delegate selection process works in each state?

Just as it’s a bad idea to “wing it” as a New York real estate developer, running for President isn’t a task amenable to half-assing it.

If Trump is as incompetent at the one main task he’s set himself (getting elected President), why would anyone think he would do better at the hundreds of tasks the President of the United States of America must oversee?

LinkSwarm for April 11, 2016

Monday, April 11th, 2016

Greetings, and welcome to the week known as “Damn, I better finish my taxes.” Here’s a LinkSwarm:

  • Obama’s foreign policy genius exemplified: “In Syria, militias armed by Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA.”
  • If Republicans end up with a brokered convention, expect Ted Cruz, not Paul Ryan, to win the nomination. “[We’re] learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington ‘establishment.’ Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.”
  • “Ted Cruz on Saturday clinched the support of every pledged delegate in Colorado, capturing all of the final 13 delegates who will go to the national convention in July and demonstrating his organizational strength in the all-important delegate race.”
  • Indeed, Team Trump screwed up in lots of places:

    From Thursday to Saturday, Trump suffered setbacks in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina and Indiana that raise new doubts about his campaign’s preparedness for the long slog of delegate hunting as the GOP race approaches a possible contested convention. He lost the battle on two fronts. Cruz picked up 28 pledged delegates in Colorado. In the other states, rival campaigns were able to place dozens of their own loyalists in delegate spots pledged to Trump on the first ballot. This will matter if Trump fails to win a majority of delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland, as his delegates defect once party rules allow them to choose the candidate they want to nominate.

    If Donald Trump is as smart as he keeps telling us, how is it he can’t seem to hire anyone smart enough to know how each state’s delegate selection process actually works?

  • Hillary Clinton defends Israel against Bernie Sanders. Hillary finally takes the right side in an issue debate, but what do you want to bet that it hurts her, given the naked anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian bias among the Democratic Party’s activist base?
  • Thanks to the Magic Power of Socialism™, Venezuela is where Zimbabwe was 15 years ago. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Modern liberalism is dedicated to altering language to advance their agenda, not to mention hiding their many failures.
  • Naval security under Obama looks like it’s just as good as security in the rest of the Obama Administration. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • America assimilates Muslims much better than Europe.
  • Gun sales soar but “per capita criminal homicides committed with firearms are at their lowest point ever recorded since the FBI began formally tracking that information in 1960.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Millionaires are fleeing France. “Polls have shown that about 50% of all French people 18-34 years old, not just the millionaires and billionaires, would leave France if they could.” Why? “Blue model rot, deeply set in across Europe, is pervasive in France.”
  • “70 Tries After Seattle Raised Its Minimum Wage, I Still Can’t Find A Job.”
  • Conservative Rebecca Bradley defeated liberal activists Joanne Kloppenburg for a seat on the Wisconsin supreme court.
  • Thanks to global warming, sea levels are rising. And by “rising” I mean “falling.”
  • Dallas trying to screw property owners yet again.
  • Several ESPN writers are predicting an Astros-Cubs World Series. And the moon became as blood…
  • “New York taxi drivers to be banned from flirting with or ejaculating on passengers.” One of these things is not like the other/One of these things just doesn’t belong…
  • “Understanding Movement In Composition Through The Work Of Akira Kurosawa.”
  • Post-Wisconsin Presidential Race Update

    Wednesday, April 6th, 2016

    A few quick hits after Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, where he ended up with 48.2% of the vote, and will end up with 36 delegates:

  • Cruz takes the lead nationally in Reuters polling. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Four things to watch for denying Donald Trump the nomination. Including how close Ted Cruz can get in the delegate count.
  • How Cruz won.
  • Is Wisconsin a turning point for Cruz?
  • Trump throws a temper tantrum in press release form after losing.
  • More from Trump’s super classy supporters. And here’s a summary in classic movie form:

  • Can Trump get to 1237 delegates? Fiddle with the controls to enter your estimates. (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
  • Ted Cruz Wins Wisconsin

    Tuesday, April 5th, 2016

    Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin with (as of this writing) about 55% of the vote.

    Also, nationwide polls are now showing Cruz in a statistical dead heat with Donald Trump nationally.

    Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is winning on the Democratic side with about 54% of the vote.

    Here’s a liveblog with more election tidbits. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

    Presidential Race Update for April 5, 2016

    Tuesday, April 5th, 2016

    Today is Wisconsin’s turn in the primaries. Ted Cruz leads there in most recent polls, and there are signs the Donald Trump campaign is continuing to implode.

    So here are some Presidential race links:

  • “Ted Cruz’s preferred candidates won the vast majority of convention delegates available in North Dakota over the weekend, taking 18 of 25 slots in the state in another show of organizational strength over Donald Trump.”
  • Many of Trump’s own delegates are ready to flee at the first opportunity. (Hat tip: Weasel Zippers via Director Blue.)
  • And Cruz is lining up Arizona delegates willing to defect to him on a second ballot. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Five factors working against Trump securing a majority of Republican delegates. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • How demographics doom Trump.
  • Trump is an effect, not a cause.

    A majority of Trump supporters agree with the following statement: “people like me don’t have any say in what the government does.”

    Distance is decisive. The transcendent aim of the revolt of the public, everywhere around the globe, has been to smash the elites and the institutions down from the protected heights, by whatever means necessary, regardless of the consequences. So far, the US presidential elections of 2016 appear to be no exception.

    (Hat tip: Roger Kimball via Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • Has Trump brought in 14 million new voters?
  • Trump can’t destroy the Republican Party.
  • Trump: “A large blob of sheer grossness. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • The Chalkening.
  • Milo Explains It All For You

    Monday, April 4th, 2016

    And by “all” I mean two different things. First, here’s Milo Yiannopoulos why it’s so important to beat the Social Justice Warriors now at the peak of their powers:

    Second, here’s Yiannopoulos and Allum Bokhari’s very interesting piece “An Establishment Conservative’s Guide To The Alt-Right.” Interesting, in that the authors attempt to lay out the various strands of the so-called “Alt-Right,” but not necessarily persuasive.

    It is very informative as to identifying various alt-Right clades from Twitter trends, comments trolls, and other online venues. However, nothing in the piece really explains how Donald Trump is capturing some 37% of Republican primary voters down in the wilds of meatspace. In that context, I am especially unconvinced that those the authors finger as “natural conservatives” think about cultural issues in the way the piece suggest they do. “Their perfect society does not necessarily produce a soaring GDP, but it does produce symphonies, basilicas and Old Masters.” While I am sure a fair number of Trump voters are indeed resentful of a national elite media that paints them as the redneck freaks of JesusLand, I would be greatly surprised if they give terribly much thought about symphonies and basilicas compared to economic insecurity, stagnant wages, and illegal aliens taking jobs away from Americans.

    Similarly unpersuasive is the authors’ implied definition of “Establishment Conservatives.” As someone who has occasionally written for National Review and is backing Ted Cruz over Trump, I suppose I theoretically fit the definition. But this taxonomy (and the piece itself) completely ignores the Tea Party and its alternate media organs, lumping together everyone from David Brock to Ron Paul into some sort of amorphous political mass.

    The piece is still worth reading, but with several grains of salt.

    That “Cruz Adultery” Story is Ludicrous

    Friday, March 25th, 2016

    It looks like someone in Donald Trump’s orbit fed the National Enquirer a Ted Cruz adultery story originally peddled by Marco Rubio allies.

    The story is pretty much laughable, not only for the fact that it’s deeply out of character, but also that it strikes me as logistically impossible.

    Has no one ever seen Ted Cruz work on the campaign trail? The man’s a campaigning machine with a grueling schedule that would kill lesser mortals. When the hell is Cruz supposed to find time to have an affair? When on earth is he supposed to find time for one mistress, let alone five?

    It’s almost as ludicrous a theory as Tupac Shakur and Biggie Smalls never being shot dead and secretly collaborating on a comeback album with Joe Biden.

    Edited to add: Texas Monthly editor Erica Grieder finds the story as ludicrous as I do.

    Most 538 Scenarios Show Trump Failing to Clinch 1,237 Delegates by the Convention

    Wednesday, March 23rd, 2016

    For all that Donald Trump has roiled this primary season, he’s still far from clinching the nomination. In fact, the consensus scenario over at FiveThirtyEight shows him falling short at 1,208 delegates. More discussion of their methodology is here.

    Note, however, that they had Trump picking up 4 delegates from Utah, when he actually picked up zero, meaning here’s already fallen (slightly) off their projected pace.

    Trump could still win on the first ballot of the convention without an absolute majority of delegates going in, but that’s far from a sure thing. We could very well be headed for a brokered convention, and then all bets are off.