1724: BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab in Cairo reports: “Despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and TV and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces, and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people.””
The vast majority of modern revolutions are not won by beating the government’s armies in the field, they’re won when the army no longer has the heart to fire on the people. If Mubarak still has the army on his side, he’ll survive the unrest. However, if he doesn’t, as the report above indicates, then it’s all over. The instant a dictator loses the army, he loses power. That’s why the Communist Chinese are still in power and Nicolae Ceausescu died of acute lead poisoning.
Some people have been linking to Al Jazeera for live footage, but that requires installing RealPlayer, and there are some things I just won’t do…
Is this revolution a good or bad thing for Egypt? Depends on who comes out on top. Hosni Mubarak probably isn’t on the list of the ten most brutal and corrupt world leaders, but he probably does make the top twenty. Replacing him with a real Democratic government would be great. Replacing him with the Muslim Brotherhood would be like replace the Shah with Ayatollah Khomeini, only possibly a lot worse.
The big Jihad news this week, of course, was the Moscow bombing. But that was hardly the only thing of note:
The Moscow bombers were evidently trained in Pakistan. “An al-Qaeda linked website said that the group Islamic Caucasus Emirate, led by the rebe Doku Umarov, was poised to claim it had staged the attack. It said that Russia’s harsh military measures against independence activists in the Caucasus had provoked the attack. It said: ‘You disbelievers are the firewood of Hell. You will enter it.'” (I’m guessing “rebe” is short for “rebel,” though I have not heretofore heard it used.)
Dokka Umerov has repeatedly made it very clear that he wants nothing to do with al Qaeda, or bin Laden.
The latter point reveals the following about the global War on Terror. First, the US and British efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq have succeeded in destroying al Qaeda’s reputation amongst Islamist organizations. If an Islamist cause as major as the Caucasus Emirate wants to stay clean of al Qaeda, it means that al Qaeda equals trouble. Al Qaeda involvement means interference from the world’s great powers.
Second, Russia’s situation reveals that the US and British efforts have failed to do significant damage to the ideology of Islamism. If a nationalist movement turns itself into a movement with Islamist objectives in order to make itself stronger, then it proves that the ideals to which al Qaeda subscribes have not been significantly damaged.
Australian artist receives death threats from left-wingers and islamists for anti-burqua mural. Once again we see the alliance of the left and radical Islam.
New Imam of Ground Zero Mosque says that all apostates from Islam should be jailed. This is a great improvement from the standard clerical opinion that they should be killed…
All you Islamophobes who say Mohammed was a pedophile are way off base. Sure, Mohammed married a 6 year old, but all Islamic experts agree that he refrained from having sex with her until she reached the ripe old age of 9.
Islamic man in Buffalo texts his wife that he can’t live without her. Twenty minutes later he beheaded her.
I still don’t feel like I have a good handle on the Tunisian Revolution yet. (Indeed, my fingers keep wanting to type “Tunesian,” which suggests a government based on iTunes…) Jihadi? Non-Jihadi? Both? (Probably the the last.) But the fact that the government-owned ISPs were running a massive “man in the middle” attack by capturing every password for Facebook (and what the Facebook team did about it, certainly suggests that the (semi-deposed) government were no angels. In fact, it brings back memories of East Germany, where Stasi monitoring stations were literally built right on top of telephone exchanges…
(And speaking of the Stasi, if you haven’t done so already, you should see The Lives of Others, one of the greatest films of the last decade…)
A lot more details here, including more aftermath footage, and the deeply unsurprising news that the bomber was a “man of Arab appearance.”
Also this:
Three men who have been living in the Russian capital for a certain period of time reportedly took part in organizing the blast, a source told Interfax news agency. He also noted that these three were believed to be Russian North Caucasus militants.
The North Caucasus area is where Chechnya is located, where Russia is still occupying Georgian territory, where a dizzying array of post-Soviet Russian Republics (Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Dagestan) of differing ethnicities reside, and where jihadists have declared a Caucasus Emirate, claiming most of the land between the Caspian and the Black Sea.
However, having news of North Caucasus involvement available so soon after the bombing seems quite strange. It could very well be Jihadest involvement, or it could be Vladamir Putin manufacturing a pretext for cracking down on the regions various separatist movements.