The media, desperate to reimpose lockdowns to hurt the economy (and thus the economy and Trump’s popularity), has made a great deal of hay over Houston hospitals being near their ICU capacity.
Those breathless reports of 90+% ICU rates ignore the fact that such utilization rates are entirely normal:
“What you’ve been hearing is a report that we are at 97 percent or so capacity across the Texas medical center. At Houston Methodist, we’re somewhere in the low 90s right now in terms of capacity of ICU beds, but let me put that in perspective … June 25 2019, exactly one year ago … It was at 95 percent. We are highly experienced at utilizing our ICU beds for the sickest of the sick patients day in day out … and it is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s. That’s how all of us operate hospitals, and how all hospitals operate.”
“The capacity that’s being reported is base capacity … we have the ability to go far higher than that in terms of the ICU beds that we can utilize for COVID.”
“We have, across Houston Methodist, 24 hundred beds 330 or so of those are our ICU beds on a normal day, but there is an ability to flex beds back and forth. We can turn regular beds into ICU as we need to with appropriate staff, ventilators, and other equipment. We can turn many other areas in the hospital like some of the recovery areas, pre and post surgical areas, and places like that into ICUs.”
“We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization right now.”
And here’s Vance Ginn on the issue:
Per @SETRAC_TX, #Harris County has hospital beds for general & ICU uses available, and even more available for surge capacity.
Maybe true that specific hospitals in #Houston face capacity issues, but hospitals have been working together to provide great care. #txlege #covidtx pic.twitter.com/CpjRuNT0Gh
— Vance Ginn (@VanceGinn) July 5, 2020
Statewide, recoveries are far outpacing fatalities. “Throughout the entire state of Texas—whose population is over 29 million—there are 195,239 cases of the virus reported, 2,637 deaths, and an estimated 100,843 recoveries.”
Also, don’t expect Houston to be “the next New York” for coronavirus deaths. The trends don’t show that at all:
NY vs TX.
Seem to be some important differences.
Also, looking at NY, why should we expect TX to reflect a 28d+ lag from case to death, as many are insisting? NY never reflected that length of lag. Seems we may already have real signal.
Blue=cases
Orange=deaths
(7d avg) pic.twitter.com/7RNPSHmleU— Newman Nahas (@NahasNewman) July 6, 2020
Cornavirus infections are indeed up in Harris County, but fatalities are dropping again statewide. Hardly cause for panic.