Here’s a pretty provocative prediction: Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman predicts “most, if not all” white-collar tasks will be automated by AI within 18 months.
Microsoft’s AI CEO is joining a chorus of executives who say they anticipate widespread job automation driven by artificial intelligence.
Mustafa Suleyman, the Microsoft AI chief, said in an interview with the Financial Times that he predicts most, if not every, task in white-collar fields will be automated by AI within the next year or year and a half.
“I think that we’re going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks,” Suleyman said in the interview that was published Wednesday. “So white-collar work, where you’re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”
The CEO said the trend is already observable in software engineering, in which employees are using “AI-assisted coding for the vast majority of their code production.”
“It’s a quite different relationship to the technology, and that’s happened in the last six months,” he said.
I really, really doubt that. AI has been able to do surprisingly well on a number of programming tasks mainly because it was created by programmers. It’s no wonder that it should be good at something like, say, creating a program to ingest JSON REST data into an SQL database. But the further you get from technical domains, the further you’re getting from people who can correct the AI when it gets things wrong.
Not every white collar employee is absolutely necessary, but as a class they possess the vital wells of institutional knowledge that lie beyond the datasets AI have been trained on. They also understand exception handling, knowing what to do when things go wrong. AI systems generally do poorly when faced with input combinations they’ve never seen before, which is why you have those videos of dozens of Waymo taxis blocking roads in clumps.
Also, given how zealously IT teams work to secure company data, are they really going to just blithely set AIs loose in their databases? Especially when their jobs may be among the ones target for elimination? Especially when AI is still prone to notorious hallucinations?
There are places where where AI might replace experts, namely those that use wide but highly structured datasets for narrow decision points, like some areas of regulatory law. But are decision makers really going to remove the ability to blame underlings for mistakes? “Sure we lost $100 million, but the AI told me it was OK!” is probably not going to wash as an adequate ass-covering maneuver. And, as I noted before, who is going to put an AI in charge of Accounts Payable when a single glitch could drain your entire bank account?
Plus there are entire classes of white collar jobs (sales comes to mind) where I don’t see AI making any headway replacing the fleshy incumbents.
Second, even where AI might effectively replace some humans, I don’t see companies letting Microsoft AIs in the front door. Copilot is a product people hate so much that current users won’t even turn it on even though they’re getting it free. Maybe Microsoft will make money getting in the back door via investments in OpenAI and Anthropic, but I doubt that’s going to reflect glory on Mustafa Suleyman.
But finally, let’s assume that his prediction is true and that most white collar jobs will be automated out of existence in the next 18 months. Just how does Microsoft expect to profit in the inevitable widespread economic collapse? If you think New York City’s trajectory is dire under Mandami now, how much direr is it going to get when vast swathes of people who pay the most taxes (and buy the most stocks) lose their income almost overnight? The subprime meltdown will look like a cakewalk in comparison when everyone starts selling their investment holdings just to pay for food and rent.
And if it’s known that the big AI companies are the direct causes of their immediate penury, how are such grandees going to protect themselves from the fury of the newly unemployed mobs? There were probably just a few thousand of Ned Ludd’s boys smashing mill machinery in early 19th century England. If Suleyman’s prediction came to pass, there would be what, 30 or 40 million people hurled into unemployment at the same time? In that sort of environment, thousands of Luigi Mangiones would bloom. And if it’s a global phenomena, neither the French Riviera nor Davos will be safe from the fury of the mobs. And that’s assuming congress doesn’t step in with something like the Execute Mustafa Suleyma Live On National Television Act.
So I’m reasonably certain that Suleyman’s prophecy will not come to pass. (Wait, a Microsoft CEO’s predictions turning out to be wrong? What are the odds?)
And anyway, if his prediction does have a chance of coming true, the best move isn’t investing in Microsoft, it’s investing in canned goods and ammunition…