Posts Tagged ‘Sri Preston Kulkarni’

PSA: Texas Election Runoff Today

Tuesday, July 14th, 2020

If you live in various parts of Texas, today is the Wuhan coronavirus-delayed runoff date.

The long-awaited Lone Star State runoff elections are tomorrow, postponed from May 26. At the federal level, 16 nominations will be decided, one for the Senate and 15 more in U.S. House races.

In Texas, if no candidate secures a 50 percent majority in the primary, which, in 2020, was all the way back on Super Tuesday, March 3, a runoff election between the top two finishers is then conducted within 12 weeks. Because of COVID precautions, the extended runoff cycle has consumed 19 weeks.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) will learn the identity of his general election opponent tomorrow night, and the incumbent’s campaign has seemingly involved itself in the Democratic runoff. The Cornyn team released a poll at the end of last week that contained ballot test results for the Democratic runoff, a race that seemingly favored original first-place finisher M.J. Hegar, but closer examination leads one to believe that the Cornyn forces would prefer to run against state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas).

The TargetPoint survey identified Ms. Hegar as a 33-29 percent leader but points out that among those respondents who claim to have already voted, the two candidates were tied at 50 percent apiece. They further used the poll to identify Sen. West as the most “liberal” candidate in the race as an apparent way to influence Democratic voters that he is closer to them than Ms. Hegar.

Snip.

In the House, six districts host runoffs in seats that will result in a substantial incumbent victory this fall. Therefore, runoff winners in the 3rd (Rep. Van Taylor-R), 15th (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez-D), 16th (Rep. Veronica Escobar-D), 18th (Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee-D), 20th (Rep. Joaquin Castro-D), and 35th Districts (Rep. Lloyd Doggett-D) will become largely inconsequential in November.

The 2nd District originally was advancing to a secondary election, but candidate Elisa Cardnell barely qualified for the Democratic runoff and decided to concede the race to attorney and former Beto O’Rourke advisor Sima Ladjevardian. Therefore, the latter woman became the party nominee against freshman Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) without having to face a second election. The congressman is a strong favorite for re-election, but Ms. Ladjevardian had already raised will over $1 million for just her primary election.

The 10th District Democratic runoff features attorney Mike Siegel, who held Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) to a surprisingly close finish in 2018. Mr. Siegel is favored to top physician Pritesh Gandhi who has raised and spent over $1.2 million through the June 24th pre-runoff financial disclosure report, which is about $400,000 more than Mr. Siegel.

District 13 features runoffs on both sides, but it is the Republican race that will decide who succeeds retiring Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon/Amarillo) in the seat that gave President Trump his second strongest percentage (79.9 percent) in the entire country. Though finishing second in the primary election to lobbyist and former congressional aide Josh Winegarner, former White House physician and retired Navy Admiral Ronny Jackson, armed with President Trump’s vocal support, has now become the favorite. According to a Fabrizio Lee & Associates’ late June poll for an outside organization supporting the retired Admiral, Mr. Jackson leads 46-29 percent.

Former Congressman Pete Sessions is attempting a political comeback after his defeat in 2018. Moving to his boyhood home of Waco to run for the open 17th District, Mr. Sessions placed first in the primary, well ahead of second-place finisher Renee Swann, a local healthcare company executive. Being hit for his Dallas roots in the district that stretches from north of Waco to Bryan/College Station, it remains to be seen how the former 11-term congressman fares in his new district.

If he wins, the 17th will be the third distinct seat he will have represented in the Texas delegation. He was originally elected in the 5th CD in 1996, and then switched to the 32nd CD post-redistricting in 2004. Of the three elections he would ostensibly face in the current election cycle, most believed the runoff would be Mr. Sessions’ most difficult challenge.

The open 22nd District brings us the conclusion to a hotly contested Republican runoff election between first-place finisher Troy Nehls, the Sheriff of Ft. Bend County, and multi-millionaire businesswoman Kathaleen Wall. The latter has been spending big money on Houston broadcast television to call into question Nehls’ record on the issue of human sex trafficking, which is a significant concern in the Houston metro area.

With her issues and money, versus a veritable lack of campaign resources for Sheriff Nehls, Ms. Wall has closed the primary gap and pulled within the margin of polling error for tomorrow’s election. The winner faces Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who held retiring Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) to a 51-46 percent victory in 2018.

In the 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, and is the only true swing district in Texas, retired Navy non-commissioned officer Tony Gonzales and homebuilder Raul Reyes battle for the Republican nomination tomorrow. Mr. Gonzales, with President Trump’s support, has the edge over Mr. Reyes, who did earn Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) backing. The winner faces general election favorite Gina Ortiz Jones (D), who held retiring Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) to a scant 926 vote victory in 2018.

Back in the DFW metroplex, Democrats will choose a nominee for the open 24th District. Retired Air Force Colonel Kim Olson was originally considered the favorite for the nomination, but it appears that former local school board member Candace Valenzuela has overtaken her with outside support from Hispanic and progressive left organizations. The winner challenges former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) in what promises to be an interesting general election. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) is retiring after eight terms in federal office. Prior to his election to Congress, Mr. Marchant spent 18 years in the Texas House of Representatives.

Finally, in the 31st District, Democrats will choose a candidate to oppose veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock). Physician Christine Mann and computer engineer Donna Imam ran close to each other in the primary, and the winner will face an uphill climb in the general election. Though 2020 Senate candidate M.J. Hegar held Mr. Carter to a 51-48 percent win two years ago, the congressman will be considered a much stronger re-election favorite this year.

2018 Texas Primary Runoff Results

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2018

Here’s a brief rundown of Texas primary runoff results:

Democrats

  • Lupe Valdez beat Andrew White 53.1% to 46.9% in the Democratic gubernatorial runoff. In addition to her Metroplex base, Valdez won Hispanic-heavy areas like the Rio Grande valley and 5 of the 6 most popular counties (Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Tarrant, El Paso), something White’s clear strength in Harris County was unable to overcome. Valdez goes on to see if she can top Wendy Davis’ 38.9%.
  • Lorie Burch beat “other” Sam Johnson 75$% to 25% in the U.S. 3rd Congressional District race. She’ll face (and most likely lose to) Republican Van Taylor in the general. (Previously.)
  • Jana Lynne Sanchez beat Ruby Faye Woolridge, fueling the narrative that Hispanics are overtaking blacks as the Democratic Party’s key minority voting block, 53.1% to 46.9%, in the U.S. 6th Congressional District race. She’ll face (and likely lose to) Republican Ron Wright in November. (See below.)
  • In a very closely-watched race, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher slaughtered DCCC target Laura Moser 67.1% to 32.9% in the U.S. Seventh Congressional District. It seems that the DCCC’s #1 priority this year wasn’t winning, but burying anyone with any ties to Bernie Sanders. Fletcher will face incumbent Republican John Culberson in November. Culberson won his 2014 off-year election by a solid 63.3% to 34.5%, but Hillary Clinton carried the district (even as Culberson won by a narrower 56.2%) in 2016.
  • Mike Siegel beat Tawana Walter-Cadien handily in the U.S. 10th congressional district race, and the right to lose to well-funded Republican incumbent Mike McCaul in November.
  • Joseph Kopser beat Mary Wilson 58% to 42% in the U.S. 21st Congressional District race. Kopser is a throwback to the sort of candidate the Democrats used to love to run: A rich white businessman with ties to government and the military who could win in swing districts. He’ll face Republican Chip Roy in November (see below).
  • Sri Preston Kulkarni beat Letitia Plummer decisively in the U.S. 22nd Congressional District race for the right to lose to incumbent Republican Pete Olsen, who won 59.5% of the vote in 2016.
  • Gina Ortiz Jones beat Rick Trevino with 67.9% of the vote in the U.S. 23rd Congressional District race. The 23rd is the only true swing district in Texas, and Republican incumbent Will Hurd only won by 3,000 votes over former incumbent Pete Gallego in 2016 (a rematch of a 2014 race Hurd won by 2,000 votes). Hurd has a fundraising advantage, but Jones has raised over $1 million herself, and this is likely to be a very competitive race in November.
  • Julie Oliver edged Chris Perri with 52.2% of the vote in the U.S. 25th Congressional District, and will face Republican incumbent Roger Williams in this solidly Republican district.
  • Eric Holguin beat Raul (Roy) Barrera by 61.9% in the U.S. 27th Congressional District race, and will face Michael Cloud (see below) to replace disgraced retired incumbent Blake Farenthold.
  • Mary Jennings Hegar beat Christine Eady Mann with 62.2% of the vote in the U.S. 31st Congressional District race for the right to face incumbent Republican John Carter in November. This is my district, and is still pretty solidly Republican.
  • Colin Allred trounced Lillian Salerno with 69.5% of the vote in the 32nd Congressional District, and will face incumbent Republican Pete Sessions in November. Sessions had no Democratic opponent in 2016, but Hillary Clinton edged Trump in the district. Probably still solidly Republican.
  • Republicans

  • Ex-SEAL Dan Crenshaw walloped Kevin Roberts with just shy of 70% of the vote in the U.S. 2nd Congressional District race, and should easily beat Democratic political newcomer Tod Litton to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Ted Poe in this heavily Republican district.
  • State representative Lance Gooden edged conservative favorite Bunni Pounds with 53.1% of the vote in the U.S. 5th Congressional District race. He should easily handle Democrat Dan Wood in November to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Jeb Hensarling.
  • Tarrant County Tax Assessor-Collector Ron Wright beat Jake Ellzey 52.2% to 47.8%, which is a bit closer than I expected. Republican votes totaled twice those of Democrats in this heavily Republican district, so he should have no trouble dispatching Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez in November (see above). (Previously.)
  • Conservative favorite Chip Roy beat Matt McCall with 52.7% of the vote in the in the U.S. 21st Congressional District, underperforming expectations. Though a solidly Republican district, he’ll have to step it up against well-heeled incumbent Joseph Kopser (see above) if he wants to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Lamar Smith.
  • Michael Cloud beat Bech Bruun with in 61.0% in the U.S. 27th Congressional District race to replace the disgraced Blake Farenthold. The state legislature made this a solidly Republican district after Farenthold’s surprise win over Solomon Ortiz in 2010, so expect Cloud to easily beat Democratic nominee Eric Holguin (see above).