Posts Tagged ‘Texas 15th Congressional District’

More Texas 2024 Primary Results Tidbits

Thursday, March 7th, 2024

Now that the dust has settled a bit, here are some more election tidbits from Tuesday’s primary, most gleaned from The Texan’s tracking page.

  • President Trump got more than twice as many primary votes as Joe Biden.
  • Ted Cruz got more than twice as many votes (1,979,327) as all the Democratic Texas Senate candidates combined (964,250). And even more votes than Trump (1,808,823).
  • Trump and Cruz both won all 254 Texas counties. Joe Biden lost sparsely populated Loving County to Frank Lozada one vote to zero, and King County (small and overwhelmingly Republican) either hasn’t reported Democratic votes or didn’t hold a Democratic primary. (Both Trump and Cruz got over 70 votes in Loving County.)
  • Republican incumbent Christi Craddick won her Railroad Commissioner’s race without a runoff at 50.4%.
  • If you compare the topline race primary results of 2022 (Texas Gubernatorial race) to the Presidential primary results of 2024, Republican votes are up just over 365,000 (2,323,754 in 2024 vs. 1,954,172 for 2022), but Democrats are down over 96,000 votes (979,179 for 2024 vs. 1,075,601 for 2022).
  • The Ken Paxton slate for the Court of Criminal Appeals (David Schenck, Gina Parker, and Lee Finley) all won over their respective incumbents fairly handily.
  • The previously reported Gonzalez/Herrera runoff was the only Texas U.S. House race where the Republican incumbent was pulled into a runoff; all the others won with ease.
  • 2022 saw Republican Monica De La Cruz beat Democrat Michelle Vallejo in U.S. House District 15, the only swing district in Texas after redistricting, by nine points. November is going to see a rematch between the two, as both won their primaries. Given the ongoing border crisis (TX15 runs down to Rio Grande Valley) and both Texas Republican and Trump inroads into Hispanic voters, I would not expect Vallejo to improve on her previous showing.
  • Harris County DA Kim Ogg lost her Democratic Party primary to the more radical, Soros-backed Sean Teare. “Although Ogg had financial support from billionaire donor and criminal justice reform activist George Soros during her first campaign in 2016, Soros did not assist Ogg in her 2020 re-election bid and threw his support to Teare this election cycle. The Soros-funded Texas Justice and Public Safety PAC spent over $1.5 million in the final weeks of the campaign to help Teare unseat Ogg.” Democrats also seethed that Ogg let investigations of corruption among Judge Lina Hidalgo’s staffers go forward. How dare she not treat Democrats as above the law? Teare will face Republican nominee Dan Simons, a former assistant district attorney and defense attorney, in November. Bonus: Ogg had trouble voting because her lesbian girlfriend already cast her ballot for her. As commentor Leland noted, does Harris County not follow Texas voter ID laws?
  • Travis County residents are evidently delighted with more rapes and murders, as they just voted to keep Jose Garza DA.
  • School choice was a big winner Tuesday.

    The 2024 primary election was a major success for school choice advocates in Texas. Several opponents of education reform lost outright, others went to runoffs, and still more were electorally weakened.

    Corey DeAngelis, a school choice advocate and head of the American Federation for Children Victory Fund, released a statement touting six wins and four forced runoffs in the 13 races where his PAC was engaged.

    Throughout multiple called special sessions in 2023, the Republican-led House alternatively delayed and killed Gov. Greg Abbott’s efforts to create school choice in Texas. Ultimately, these efforts culminated with 21 Republicans voting for an amendment by John Raney (R-College Station) to strip school choice from an omnibus education measure.

    Accounting for retirements and with the runoffs still to be decided, only a handful of incumbent Republicans who sided with the teachers’ unions to kill school choice during the legislative session will be returning to Austin in 2025.

    As covered yesterday, anti-school choice incumbents defeated include Reggie Smith, Travis Clardy, Glenn Rogers, Ernest Bailes and Steve Allison, while those driven into run-offs include Justin Holland, John Kuempel, Gary VanDeaver and DeWayne Burns

  • Some State Board of Education news. “Pat Hardy, a former teacher and a veteran representing District 11, which covers parts of Fort Worth, lost her seat to challenger Brandon Hall, a youth pastor.” Also: “Another incumbent, Tom Maynard of District 10, which includes Williamson and Bell counties, will go into a May 28 runoff against Round Rock school board member Mary Bone, who describes herself as a conservative champion for Texas kids.” If Bone wins, she’ll probably make a good State Board of Education member, but Round Rock ISD desperately needs more conservatives on the board.
  • Williamson County primary results. I didn’t see any surprises there.
  • Things that make you go “Hmmmm”: “Potential Speaker Candidate Hired by Bank with Ties to Bonnen and Phelan.”

    A lawmaker rumored to be eyeing the speakership in the Texas House is employed by a bank that has connections to current House Speaker Dade Phelan and disgraced former Speaker Dennis Bonnen.

    State Rep. Cody Harris, a Republican from Palestine, was first elected to the House in 2018. At the time, he was a real estate broker for Liberty Land & Ranch LLC.

    In August of 2021, however, Harris added a new item to his resumé—Vice President of Business Development for Third Coast Bank.

    The career change is notable given the bank’s ties to the current and former speaker.

    In late 2019, Third Coast Bank acquired Heritage Bank, where Bonnen had served as President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer. He currently sits on Third Coast’s Board of Directors.

    Phelan’s brother Lan Phelan was a director of Third Coast from 2013 until at least 2016, according to filings with the secretary of state. A 2021 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed that the bank’s Beaumont location was leased from Phelan’s family investment firm.

    Additionally, the most recent personal financial statement from Dade Phelan shows that he owns shares in Third Coast.

  • Texas Election Results Roundup for 2022

    Saturday, November 12th, 2022

    National results were a deep disappointment to Republicans expecting a red wave. What about the results in Texas? Better:

  • Republicans retained all statewide races.
  • Incumbent governor Greg Abbott walloped Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke by about a point less than he walloped Lupe Valdez in 2018, the year O’Rourke got within three points of Ted Cruz in the Texas senate race. 2018’s Betomania seems to have slightly raised the floor for Democrats in various down-ballot races, but not enough for them to be competitive statewide. This is O’Rourke’s third high-profile flameout in five years, and one wonders whether out-of-state contributors are getting wise to the game.
  • Vote totals seem down a bit from 2018, with the governor’s race drawing about 266,000 fewer voters.
  • Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick increased the margin by which he beat Mike Collier (also his opponent in 2018) from about five points to about ten points.
  • For all the talk of Ken Paxton being the most vulnerable statewide incumbent, he also won his race over Rochelle Garza by about 10 points, as opposed to a three and half point victory over Justin Nelson (a man so obscure he has no Wikipedia entry) in 2018. (Thought experiment: Could Beto have beaten Paxton this year? My gut says his money would have made it a lot closer than his race with Abbott, but I think he still would have lost by about the same margin he lost to Ted Cruz in 2018. But his lack of a law degree would have worked against him, and I doubt his ego would ever consider running in a down-ballot race like AG…)
  • In the Comptroller, Land Commissioner and Agriculture Commissioner races, Republicans were up a bit around 56%, and Democrats were down a bit more. (And Dawn Buckingham replacing George P. Bush should be a big improvement.)
  • Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian had the biggest spread between him and Democratic opponent Luke Warford, 15 points (55% to 40%).
  • Three Republican statewide judicial race winners (Rebeca Huddle in Supreme Court Place 5, Scott Walker in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 5, and Jesse F. McClure in Court of Criminal Appeals Place 6) were the only statewide candidates to garner 4.5 million or more votes (possibly due to the absence of Libertarian candidates).
  • Of three closely watched Texas majority Hispanic house seats, only Monica De La Cruz in TX15 won, while Myra Flores (TX34) and Cassy Garcia (TX28) lost.
  • Though Republicans came up short in those two U.S. congressional seats, statewide they “narrowly expanded their legislative majorities in both the House and Senate.”

    In the House, the GOP grew its ranks by one — giving them an 86-to-64 advantage in the 150-member chamber for the 2023 legislative session. The Senate has 31 members, and Republicans previously outnumbered Democrats 18 to 13. The GOP will hold at least 19 seats next session. Democrats will hold at least 11, though they are leading in one Senate race that is still too close to call.

    The Republicans’ victories were felt prominently in South Texas, where the GOP won key races after targeting the historically Democratic region of Texas after Democratic President Joe Biden underperformed there in 2020.

    In House District 37, now anchored in Harlingen, Republican Janie Lopez beat Democrat Luis Villareal Jr. The seat is currently held by Democratic state Rep. Alex Dominguez, who unsuccessfully ran for state Senate rather than seek reelection. The district was redrawn to cut out many of the Democratic voters in Brownsville from the district to the benefit Republicans. Biden carried District 37 by 17.1 points in 2020 under the old boundaries, but would have won by only 2.2 points under the new map.

    Lopez would be the first Latina Republican to represent the Rio Grande Valley in the House.

    In another major South Texas victory, Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, who defected from the Democratic Party and ran this cycle as a Republican, won reelection handily.

    In another crucial battle in southern Bexar County, which has traditionally been dominated by Democrats, Republican incumbent John Lujan prevailed over Democrat Frank Ramirez, a former San Antonio City Council member.

  • Who did well? Incumbent Republican congressman Dan Crenshaw. Remember this ad from 2020? In addition to Crenshaw winning reelection by some 73,000 votes, August Pfluger and Beth Van Duyne won reelection to their districts, and Wesley Hunt, who ran a close-but-no-cigar race for TX7 in 2020, managed to win the race for newly created TX38 this year. (My guess is that, just like Rep. Byron Donalds (FL19) and Rep. Burgess Owens (UT4), Hunt will be blocked from joining the Congressional Black Caucus.)
  • Is there any sign of black support for Democrats eroding? A bit. In 2018, Democratic Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (one of the very dimmest bulbs in congress) received 75.3% of the vote from her black and Hispanic majority district. In 2020, she received 73.3%. In 2022 (post redistricting), she received 70.7%. Slow progress, but progress none the less.
  • Unfortunately, corrupt Harris County Democratic head Lina Hidalgo managed to edge her Republican opponent by a mere 15,000 votes.
  • Leftwing fossil Lloyd Doggett was elected to his fifteenth term in congress, crushing his Republican opponent for the newly created 37th congressional district, while communist twerp Greg Casar (formerly of the Austin City Council) was elected to the 35th, formerly Doggett’s prior to redistricting.
  • Tarrant County had been trending more purple recently, going for O’Rourke over Cruz there by about 4,000 votes in 2018, and going for Biden over Trump by a mere 2,000 votes (less than .3%). But Abbott beat O’Rourke there by some 25,000 votes.
  • Jefferson County (Beaumont) is another county that’s flipped back. It went for O’Rourke over Cruz by about 500 votes,and flipped back to Trump over by around 500, but Abbott walloped O’Rouke by over 8,000 votes this year.
  • The runoff in the Austin Mayoral race will be on December 13 between hard lefty Celia Israel, and soft lefty retread Kirk Watson. If Watson picks up a clear majority of third place finisher Jennifer Virden’s voters (which seems likely), he should win.
  • As I mentioned in the Liveblog, the social justice warrior slate beat the conservative slate in Round Rock ISD.
  • This is a side effect of Williamson County, formerly a reliable Republican bulwark, becoming decidedly more liberal as Austin has become a hotbed of radical leftism. Abbott still edged O’Rourke by some 2,000 votes here, but Biden beat Trump by about 4,000 votes in 2020.
  • If 1978 is the year this election reminds me of nationally, then 1984 is the template year for Texas politics. In 1982, Phil Gramm resigned after Democrats threw him off the House Budget Committee (because why would you want a professional economist on a budget committee?), switched parties, and ran for his own vacancy in a special election as a Republican, winning handily.

    Gramm’s switch showed that the time for conservatives to remain welcome in the Democratic Party was drawing to a close, and the way he resigned to run again rather than just switching made him a folk hero among Texas republicans. In 1984, Gramm ran for the senate, walloping Ron Paul, Robert Mosbacher, Jr. (a sharp guy who eventually did better in business than politics) and former Texas gubernatorial candidate Hank Grover in the Republican primary before decisively beating Lloyd Doggett (yep, the same one that’s still in congress) in the general by some 900,000 votes.

    Gramm’s victory showed that the political careers of conservative Democrats who switched to the Republican Party could not only survive, but thrive. Between 1986 and the late 1990s, a series of high profile conservative Texas Democrats (including Kent Hance and Rick Perry) would switch from an increasingly radical Democratic Party to the GOP.

    So too, this year showed that Hispanic Democrats could leave a party increasingly out of tune with people they represented (largely hard-working, law-abiding, entrepreneurial, conservative, and Catholic) for the Republican Party and win. Republicans may not have flipped terribly many seats in south Texas, but except for recent special election-winner Myra Flores, they held their gains.

    The combination of Trump’s distinct appeal to working class Hispanics, deep opposition to disasterous Democratic open borders policies, and Gov. Abbott’s long term dedication to building out Republican infrastructure there have all primed Hispanics to shift to the GOP. Just as it took years for all Texas conservatives and most moderates to abandon the Democratic Party (Republicans wouldn’t sweep statewide offices until 1998), it will take years for the majority of Hispanics to switch.

    But if Democrats continue to push open borders, social justice, radical transgenderism, soft on crime policies, high taxes and socialism, expect Hispanics to make that switch sooner rather than later.

    That’s my Texas race roundup. If you have any notable highlights you think I should have covered, feel free to share them in the comments below.

    Trump Red-Pilled Hispanics

    Saturday, May 8th, 2021

    For almost as long as I’ve been following politics, Democratic Party analysts like Ruy Teixeira have been confidently predicting a new, permanent Democratic majority based on the the demographic trend of rising numbers of minority voters, which explains why Democrats are so committed to keeping the spigot of illegal aliens flowing into America, as they viewed each as an Undocumented Democrat to be legalized via amnesty.

    Strangely enough, things always seem to get in the way of this “natural” Democratic Party majority. First the white working class started defecting, then came the 2010 and 2014 Democrat off-year election wipeouts. Now the good ship “Demographics Favor Democrat Destiny” has run aground on the rocky outcropping known as “Donald Trump.”

    There’s still lots of enthusiasm for Trump among Hispanics in Florida:

    The South Florida-based Patriotas con Trump, or Patriots with Trump, has held multiple rallies outside Mar-a-Lago, members send messages all day in their WhatsApp group, and a smaller group of 10 meet regularly to brainstorm ways to recruit more members — and help get Republicans elected in 2022. They’re also looking ahead to 2024.

    “We are Republican, but what we really like is what Trump promotes,” Laureano Chileuitt, the group’s leader, said. A physician, Chileuitt practiced neurosurgery in his native Colombia until he came to the U.S. in 2001.

    “That’s why we consider him our caudillo,” Chileuitt said, using the Spanish word for strongman. While the term has a negative connotation in the U.S., it doesn’t for Chileuitt. “It just means he’s ‘the leader,’ like Uribe,” he said, referring to Álvaro Uribe, the right-wing former president of Colombia. “We are anti-globalization and anti-communism.”

    Fueling such enthusiasm is the polarizing politics in Latin America, more options in conservative Spanish-language media, the presence of the Trump family in Florida and a state governor that remains a close ally of the former president.

    Today, many in Miami still speak about Trump as often as they did when he was president. Like Patriotas con Trump, many small grassroots groups that sprung up during the election period are still active.

    “Trump has not lost much support in this community,” Eduardo Gamarra, a Florida International University political scientist, said after conducting a poll for a private client.

    Trump and Republicans made substantial gains among these groups in the 2020 election. The biggest shift toward Republicans was among non-Cuban and non-Puerto Rican Latinos, and that’s where a lot of the enthusiasm is concentrated now.

    Venezuela’s ongoing crisis, Nicaragua’s human rights situation, Argentina’s return to leftist populism, and Peru’s runoff elections, with a socialist leading in the polls, all influence Latinos here and sharpen their focus on Trump.

    While few Latinos cite U.S. foreign policy when polled about voting preferences, Gamarra finds communities in Florida are being influenced by politics in their home countries.

    Trump is viewed by his international supporters, especially in Latin America, as a key ally in the anti-Communist fight. And in a state where Latinos have a strong connection to family and friends back home, the nexus between Trump and supporters of the Latin American right is strengthening.

    Likewise, Republicans made big inroads among Hispanics in Texas:

    The Democrats and the left try to make people believe they will flip Texas. They make gains in Houston, Dallas, and Austin, but not in the place most think would vote Democrat.

    Props to The New York Times for casting a spotlight on the Hispanic Republicans in south Texas, who took everyone by surprise in November.

    You would think the political leaders along the Rio Grande belonged to the Democrat Party. I wouldn’t blame you if you assumed they identified more with the far-left.

    Author Jennifer Medina wrote that when you enter the Hidalgo County Republican Party’s office you see a bulletin board with the local leaders, including Hilda Garza DeShazo, Mayra Flores, and Adrienne Pena-Garza:

    Hispanic Republicans, especially women, have become something of political rock stars in South Texas after voters in the Rio Grande Valley shocked leaders in both parties in November by swinging sharply toward the G.O.P. Here in McAllen, one of the region’s largest cities, Mr. Trump received nearly double the number of votes he did four years earlier; in the Rio Grande Valley over all, President Biden won by just 15 percentage points, a steep slide from Hillary Clinton’s 39-point margin in 2016.

    That conservative surge — and the liberal decline — has buoyed the Republican Party’s hopes about its ability to draw Hispanic voters into what has long been an overwhelmingly white political coalition and to challenge Democrats in heavily Latino regions across the country. Now party officials, including Mr. Abbott, the governor, have flocked to the Rio Grande Valley in a kind of pilgrimage, eager to meet the people who helped Republicans rapidly gain ground in a longtime Democratic stronghold.

    Pena-Garza chairs the Hidalgo County Republican Party, but “grew up the daughter of a Democratic state legislator.”

    Her father switched parties in 2010:

    But after her father switched parties in 2010, Ms. Pena-Garza soon followed, arguing that Democrats had veered too far to the left, particularly on issues like abortion and gun control.

    “Politics down here did scare me because you didn’t go against the grain,” she said. “If someone’s going to tell you: ‘Oh, you’re brown, you have to be Democrat,’ or ‘Oh, you’re female, you have to be a Democrat’ — well, who are you to tell me who I should vote for and who I shouldn’t?”

    Ms. Pena-Garza said she was called a coconut — brown on the outside, white on the inside — and a self-hating Latino, labels that have begun to recede only in recent years as she meets more Hispanic Republicans who, like her, embrace policies that they view as helping small business owners and supporting their religious beliefs.

    Pena-Garza declared, “You can’t shame me or bully me into voting for a party just because that’s the way it’s always been.”

    Females seemed to bolster the move to the Republican Party:

    Women who staunchly oppose abortion voted for the first time; wives of Border Patrol agents felt convinced the Trump administration was firmly on their side; mothers picked up on the enthusiasm for Republicans from friends they knew through church or their children’s school.

    Trump was certainly the catalyst. But it’s not just about Trump:

    Democrats, and maybe Republicans, would think the enthusiasm was only with former President Donald Trump. But evidence shows the people also consider local and Congressional elections just as important.

    Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez almost defeated Texas’s 15th Congressional District incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in November. She only lost by three points:

    “That was just what you do,” she said. She added that while she could not recall ever having voted for a Democrat for president, she had hesitated to voice her political views publicly, fearing that it could hurt her insurance business. “But I never understood the Democratic values or message being one for me,” she said. “And I am convinced that people here have conservative values. That is really who the majority is.”

    During her last campaign, Ms. De La Cruz-Hernandez relied heavily on local efforts, drawing little attention from the national Republican Party in a race she lost by just three points. Now she is focusing early on building support from donors in Washington. Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has named Mr. Gonzalez a “Frontline” member, an indication that it views him as one of the most endangered House Democrats. And in March, the National Republican Congressional Committee put Mr. Gonzalez on its 2022 “Exit List” and began airing ads against him.

    Hispanics are on average more religious than the average American, yet the hard-left victimhood identity politics leftwing ideologues currently steering the Democratic Party absolutely loath Christianity. Open borders are deeply unpopular with Hispanic Americans living along the border, and non-SJW Hispanics are heavily opposed to defunding the police. With a Democratic Party demonstrating new extremes in leftwing lunacy every day, is it any surprise that Hispanics are increasingly turning Republican?

    Texas Gains 2 Congressional Seats, California, New York Lose 1 Each (With Some Thoughts On Texas Redistricting)

    Tuesday, April 27th, 2021

    The 2020 Census results are out:

    Florida and Texas gained House seats while California and New York lost one seat each as a result of population shifts, according to the 2020 census results announced on Monday.

    Texas gained two House seats in the census apportionment for a new total of 38 congressional districts, while Florida gained one House seat, bringing its total number of districts to 28. California lost one House seat and will decline to 52 congressional districts, while New York also lost one House seat and will now have 26 congressional districts. Those four states are the nation’s most populous and together provide one-third of the House’s total seats.

    A census official noted that if New York had counted 89 more people, the state would not have lost a House seat.

    Too bad Andrew Cuomo killed off all those old people before they could be counted.

    The population of California stopped growing several years before the coronavirus pandemic, and in 2020 the state lost more residents to outmigration than it gained. Residents have migrated to Texas as well as to neighboring states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.

    Once again, blue states lost population and red states gained population. People flee Democratic governance and its symptomatic poverty, high taxes, crime and disorder. It’s also the first time California has lost a congressional seat ever.

    With two new congressional seats to play with, how will Texas Republicans approach redistricting? I am very far indeed from a redistricting guru, but I have a few educated guesses about how they’ll approach things:

  • Obviously, they’ll try to carve out two more Republican districts, but that may prove difficult. Expect a new Metroplex-area suburban/exurban Republican majority district, but don’t be surprised if they have to create another Hispanic majority district for Democrats somewhere.
  • The next-highest priority has to be taking back the two seats lost in 2018, AKA The Year of Beto. Both the 7th (John Culberson losing to Lizzie Fletcher) and the 32nd (Pete Sessions losing to Collin Allred) were typical sleepwalking incumbents caught by end of election cycle demographic shifts, but there’s no reason those districts can’t be redrawn to make them Republican majority districts again. Republican challenger Wesley Hunt only lost by 3% in the 7th in 2020. (Sessions carpetbagged his way into the Waco-based 17th.)
  • Next up would be protecting Republican incumbents whose current districts are starting to get purple. To that end, I would guess that the 2nd District, with Dan Crenshaw, a rising national star regarded as a solid team player (as newly minted congressmen Beth Van Duyne and August Pfluger can attest) in a district that’s only R+5, would be the top candidate for shoring up. Van Duyne’s 24th (R+2) and Chip Roy’s 21st (R+5) would be next. John Carter’s 31st (R+6) is starting to get purple as well, but since he’s 79, he may not get as much consideration as other incumbents. Michael McCaul’s 10th (R+5) would be another candidate, but as one of the richest incumbents, there might be sentiment that he can stand fast without much additional help. Van Taylor’s 3rd (R+6) looks like a candidate on paper, but neither he nor previous Republican incumbent Sam Johnson ever won by less than 10 points.
  • A separate issue than the above, due to different dynamics, is what to do about the 23rd. The only true swing district in Texas over the last decade is currently held by Republican Tony Gonzalez, who defeated Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by 4% in 2020. Despite having a giant target on his back every time, Republican Will Hurd held the seat for three cycles before retiring despite never breaking 50%. The fate of the 23rd is highly dependent on whether they decide to carve out another majority Hispanic Democratic district for San Antonio, or whether they want to…
  • Make a play for the Rio Grande Valley? One of the more surprising results of 2020 was that Republicans made significant inroads into the Valley, including President Donald Trump winning Democrat Henry Cueller’s 28th outright. Part of this is due to Trump’s increasing popularity among Hispanics, but the Texas Republican Party has been pouring significant resources into the Valley. Combined with Biden’s border crisis, all this adds up to an opportunity to pick up one or more seats through redistricting. Michael Cloud’s adjacent 27th is looking pretty safe, so the temptation will be to turn one or more of the 28th, Vicente Gonzalez’s 15th (D+3) and/or Filemon Vela Jr.’s 34th (D+5) into competitive swing districts.
  • Another issue will be what the hell to do with Austin, the blue tumor in the heart of red Texas. One driving rationale for the shape of the 35th district (running from Austin down I-35 to San Antonio) was trying to knock off Democratic incumbent Lloyd Doggett by forcing him to face off against a San Antonio-based Hispanic Democrat. That failed, and Doggett won handily. It’s going to be mighty tempting for Republicans to throw in the towel and fashion a liberal urban core district for Austin to free up redder suburban areas to shore up Republican incumbents.
  • I can see one approach solution that solves a lot of those problems: an urban Austin district, a new majority Hispanic district near San Antonio, and a new majority Hispanic district huddling the Rio Grande Valley, reinforcing the 23rd and turning two of the 15th, 28th and 34th into majority Republican districts. But the fact it is obvious means that it probably won’t come to pass, with the likely result a more sophisticated (i.e., gerrymandered) solution.

    Texas Democratic Congressman Ruben Hinojosa Retiring

    Monday, November 16th, 2015

    “Longtime Rio Grande Valley Congressman Ruben Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) is not seeking re-election in 2016.”

    Rio Grande Valley is the Democratic Party’s last stronghold outside a few urban cores. The Texas 15th Congressional District runs in a strip from the valley up to near San Antonio. The district was formerly held by John Nance Garner and Lloyd Bentsen, and has never elected a Republican. It’s an 80% Hispanic district.

    A 2016 pickup target for Republicans? I think they’ll take a run at it, but it’s a tough nut to crack. Hinojosa won in 2014 with a solid, but not overwhelming, 54% of the vote, but garnered 61% in 2012’s Presidential election year. I could see Republicans sneaking a win if everything broke just right (having Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on top of the ticket wouldn’t hurt), but this probably only takes it from Solid D to Leans D.