Incumbent John Cornyn came out of the Republican primary with a slim lead over challenger Ken Paxton going into the runoff. But recent polling has Paxton leading by eight points.
A new poll from the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shows state Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn by 8 percentage points among likely voters in the Republican Senate primary runoff on May 26.
Don’t believe the “nonpartisan” tag. TPOR is run by Luke Warford (indeed, his is the only profile under “Our Team” on their website), the losing Democratic Railroad Commission candidate in 2022. That said, looking at the crosstabs, it looks like an actual Republican sample for a Republican runoff.
The poll, released Friday and conducted by the polling firm Slingshot Strategies on behalf of TPOR, shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a margin of 48% to 40%, with 11% undecided.
Perhaps most significantly, the poll indicates that, even if President Donald Trump were to endorse Cornyn, it would not give him enough of a boost to close the gap with Paxton.
Trump, who had previously said he was planning to endorse a candidate in the contest, has so far stayed out of the race. But in the event of a Trump endorsement, the poll says, Paxton would still lead Cornyn by 45% to 42%. By contrast, a Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen the attorney general’s lead over the incumbent U.S. senator to 55% to 35%.
“That is in large part because the MAGA coalition in Texas in this electorate is behind Paxton,” said Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies.
And another very liberal observer.
“Many undecided voters in this election are hoping to elect a MAGA candidate. That’s one of the qualities that undecided voters tell us they’re looking for. The president’s endorsement, it would make a little difference, but it wouldn’t make a world of difference, for John Cornyn. It would put this race to bed for Ken Paxton, in all likelihood.”
Paxton appears to be picking up support from voters who backed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston in the first round of voting. Some 45% of voters who previously cast ballots for Hunt say they now support Paxton, compared to 32% for Cornyn, with 24% of former Hunt voters still undecided.
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The poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn among men (50% to 40%), non-college-educated voters (53% to 36%), Latino voters (52% to 34%), and voters under 65. Cornyn holds a narrow lead among voters 65 and older (45% to 43%) and college-educated voters (46% to 42%).
Though the source is suspect, 1225 likely Republican voters is actually a pretty good sample size for a runoff. The results are bad news for an incumbent who’s had millions in PAC money poured into his campaign. It suggests that Cornyn fatigue has set in across Texas Republicans at large, not merely every single Republican I talk to on a regular basis.
Right now, it appears that the race is Paxton’s to lose.