One of the most satisfying results of last night’s election was just how many of Bart Stupak’s block of ObamaCare flippers went down in flames.
If you remember back to the ObamaCare debates, Stupak’s bloc of “Pro-Life Democrats” was never, ever, ever, ever going to vote for a bill that included government funding of abortions. That is, right up until they did.
As shown below, on November 2, the clear majority of them paid the price for betraying their principles as well as their constituents. Unless otherwise noted, the election margins below are taken from this CBS table. Since WordPress doesn’t let me set font colors to red, I’ve marked GOP pickups in bold.
Rep. Jerry Costello of Illinois’ 12th district defeated Republican Teri Newman
Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana’ 2nd district edged Republican Jackie Walorski by less than 3,000 votes.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth left his Indiana’s 8th Congressional seat for an unsuccessful run for the Senate. Republican Larry Bucshon flipped the seat by defeating Trent Van Haaften by almost 40,000 votes.
Rep. Bart Stupak retired from Michigan’s 1st congressional district when it became apparent his ObamaCare betrayal doomed his electoral chances. Republican Dan Benishek flipped the seat by defeating Gary McDowell by 25,000 votes.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th district beat James Iott (AKA Nazi Costume Guy) by a wide margin.
Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania’s 3rd district lost to Republican Mike Kelly by over 20,000 votes.
Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania’s 11th district lost to Lou Barletta by over 15,000 votes.
Rep. Solomon Ortiz of Texas’ 27th district loses to Republican Blake Farenthold by less than 1,000 votes.
That’s eight out of eleven Stupak bloc flippers whose seats are now in the hands of the GOP. And of those eleven races, I correctly picked ten, missing only Donnelly’s narrow victory in Indiana’s second district (which I originally had down as a longshot).
A few lessons:
Voters hate ObamaCare.
They hate congressmen who break promises. (Republicans should take special note of this one anytime they contemplate letting a GOP-controlled congress slip back to the old free-spending ways of the Bush43 years.)
They hate Blue Dog Democrats who vote like liberals when the really important issues are on the line.
Voters may be wising up to the fact that it doesn’t matter how much a Democrat swears up and down how Pro-Life, fiscally conservative, pro-gun, etc. they are; when push comes to shove, they’ll always cave in and vote with their liberal leadership.
Oh yes, I’m sure that running Democrats ideologically closer to Nancy Pelosi than Dan Boren in places like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio is a great way to pick up seats. I encourage you to get started on that right away.
Live-blogging the election, most recent comments on top.
12:12 AM: Prediction for tomorr- er, today: Democrats complaining non-stop about how voters are still too stupid to appreciate how awesome they are.
12:07 PM: A few got away, but this was a very successful night for Republicans. If you had predicted the magnitude of Republican victory any time in 2009, pundits would have laughed at you. Remember, in October of 2008, Daily Kos said ” At this pace, we’re headed toward a 65-70-seat Democratic majority in the Senate by the end of 2010.” The magnitude of the Tea Party turnaround in Republican fortunes is one of the most astonishing political feats of our lifetimes.
12:00 AM: Some happy thoughts to leave you with:
Republican Steve Pearce beats incumbent Democrat Harry Teague in NM 2, which RCP had as a leans Dem seat.
Republican Scott Tipton beat incumbent Democrat John Salazar in CO 3
Republican Cory Gardner beat incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey in CO 4
Just about every office in Wisconsin that could reasonably have a chance to flip Republican did. How do you like your shiny new red state, WisCon?
11:57 PM: At Midnight all the agents…have to stop blogging and go to bed. I’ll have some more analysis scattered over the next few days.
10:54 PM: Fox news calls CA for Boxer. No surprise.
11:48 PM: Murray has a small lead in Washington, but there are a lot of votes still outstanding.
11:44 PM: Pennsylvania Senate race called for Toomey. Don’t let Harry Reid’s narrow escape keep you from realizing what a huge improvement Toomey is over Arlen Specter. This is a big plus for Pennsylvanians, Republicans, and Americans, and even Democrats (who won’t have Specter as their problem any more come January).
11:40 PM: Legal pot defeated in California. I would have supported this were I living in California, as I do not think that regulating it is a legitimate concern of the federal government, and the War on Drugs has been an astoundingly expensive failure. But if legal pot can’t win in California, then where can it win?
11:39 PM: NV called for Reid. Dang.
11:38 PM: IL Senate race called for Kirk.
11:37 PM: Blog went down for a while, but Blue Host brought it back up more quickly than I expected.
11:03 PM: NBC: “The Tea Party has arrived in Washington, DC. The House did everything the Obama White House asked them to, and they paid the price.”
10:59 PM: Republicans are over-performing expectations of a week ago, but under-performing those of a day or two ago (including mine). It’s shaping up to be a bit worse for Democrats than 1994, which is bad enough (for them), but short of the (deep, scary voice) DEMOGEDDDON some were predicting.
10:55 PM: Senate Race quick updates:
Kirk slightly ahead in IL. (“KHAAAANNNNN!”)
Toomey still holding the lead in PA, with not many districts outstanding
Rossi/Murray tied in WA; it’s flipped back and forth
10:46 PM: I’m still amazed the Democrats couldn’t find anyone to run against John Thune in South Dakota. It makes South Carolina Democrat’s choice of Alvin Greene seem slightly less pathetic. At least he showed up.
10:40 PM: TX23 called for Doggett over Campbell, but 52% is a lot closer that most people expected.
9:58 PM: Toomey slips into the lead over Sleestak Sestak. Setak had held the lead virtually all night. Over in the opposition camp, the Daily Kossacks are despondent, saying there are only heavily Republican counties left.
9:52 PM: “Captain’s Log…I’m tired!” I’ve been staring at glowing rectangles for too long. I’m going to take a break to walk my dog in a few minutes.
9:49 PM: ABC refusing to call Florida or Ohio Governor’s races for the leading Republicans. I think they’re whistling pass the graveyard.
9:43 PM: This was announced earlier, but Barney Frank survives, alas. I’m sure he’s already dreaming of new ways to inject taxpayer money into the housing market.
9:41 PM: Republican Nikki Haley takes South Carolina Governor’s race.
9:40 PM: Wisconsin Senate seat called for Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold. GOP pickup.
9:38 PM: Sadly, Cao is going down in LA 2. Still, it’s an overwhelmingly Democrat seat that only went Republican in 2008 due to corruption on the part of William “cold 90 grand” Jefferson.
9:36 PM: Dana Loesch is on ABC. She looks pretty hot. (Note: This was the point in the evening when my internal censor decided to pack up and go on vacation.)
9:31: Ha! Barletta over Kanjorski. Also, “Red Barchetta” over “The Camera Eye.”
9:25 PM: Fox 7 interviewing Larry Gonzalez. He looks excited, articulate, and sweaty. “Oh my gosh.” :-)
9:23 PM: Man, that CBS theme music of repeating flute riffs is annoying. Like a pastiche of Philip Glass written by someone who hates Philip Glass.
9:22 PM: Katie Coric: “Some think Haley Barbour is a future GOP Presidential candidate.” Yeah, some people on a very poor grade of crack…
9:21 PM: PA Senate still too close to call. IL Senate still too close to call. WI too close to call. CO too close to call. NV too close to call. Still, I have the distinct feeling Republicans won’t take the Senate.
9:18 PM: ABC has finally decided to grace us with election news. Ed Rendell is spinning madly that Democrats aren’t losing bad as some people expected.
9:14 PM: Fox 7 has Texas congressmen Chet Edwards, Solomon Ortiz and Ciro Rodriguez all losing. As well as 20 Democrat state House incumbents going down.
9:11 PM: Hmmm. CBS has Republican Thomas Reed beating Matthew Zeller in NY29, despite Zeller’s total currently being higher than Reed.
9:07 PM: Flores winning big over Chet Edwards for TX-17.
9:02 PM: More local Texas updates from KEYE: Doggett back up over Campbell, but only by 5,000 votes. Larry Gonzalez maintaining 59-39% lead over Moldanado.
9:00: Democrat Bill White concedes in Texas.
8:55 PM: Republican Dennis Ross over Dem Lori Edwards in FL 12. (GOP hold.)
8:53 PM: Palin: “Delaware is a deep blue state. Exit polls show Castle would have lost on Delaware the same way O’Donnell did. The Tea Party didn’t cost the GOP that race.”
8:51: Fox predicts GOP picks up PA Governorship.
8:51: Palin now slamming the “lamestream” media.
8:50: Palin just admitted she might run for President.
8:49: Fox: “Is Marco Rubio a possible Vice Presidential candidate?” Palin: “He’s a possible Presidential candidate.”
8:47 PM: Palin says the Tea Party movement is libertarian in character. “They’re not going to Washington to raise taxes.”
8:45 PM: Sarah Palin being interviewed on Fox right now. Like Bush, I think it’s her accent that’s the source of the American left’s instant, irrational rage against her.
8:45 PM: Republican Rigell over Nye in VA02.
8:40 PM: RCP has Republicans picking up North Dakota Senate seat (as expected).
8:37: PA, NV senate races still too close to call.
8:33 PM: CBS: Republican Steve Southerland over incumbent Dem Allen Boyd in FL 02.
8:23 PM: KVUE: Larry Gonzales over Moldanado in early voting for the Texas House District 52 race!
8:23PM: KVUE: Texas news starts coming in: Perry kicking White 59% to 39%. Whoa! Campbell up over Doggett??? (only 5% in, though)
8:16 PM: NBC saying Ohio’s Governor’s race is closer than [insert cornpone Dan Rather saying here]
8:13 PM: Fox predicting: 239 Republicans in the House, 196 Democrats.
8:12 PM: Fox News predicts Republican takeover of the House. Booyah! Take that Nancy Pelosi! But pretty much everyone to the right of Daily Kos predicted that.
8:09 PM: Republican Charles Fleischmann holds on to Zach Wamp’s seat. I just like typing “Zach Wamp.” ZACH WAMP!
8:08 PM: Tom Brokaw just called the American electorate a “wild bull.”
8:05: Foxnews.com has Republican jeff Duncan picking up Gresham Barrett’s SC 03 seat.
8:01 PM: Nice of you to join us, Fox News.
8:00 PM: Republican Lou Barletta edging Democrat Paul Kanjorski in PA-11, but the lead is small and only a small number of districts have reported.
7:55 PM: Republican Young over Democrat Hill in IN9, according to RCP Donnelly/Walorski still too close to call.
7:41 PM: As a reporter, getting caught conspiring against a Republican candidate gets you: A.) A Pulitzer, B.) A job with MSNBC, or C.) A pink slip. (Of course, they might still get the MSNBC jobs…)
7:39 PM: “Election Alert: Fox News Projects Republican John Boozman Defeats Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.” Almost as shocking as a Mike Tyson victory over Woody Allen.
7:31 PM: As part of their non-election, ever-so-important “Trapped in an Elevator” coverage, PBS is showing footage of the World Trade Center collapse. I’m sure Democrats are calling up PBS execs. “You’re not helping!”
7:27 PM: They’re also calling IN 08 for Republican Buschon.
7:25: CBS has Sandra Adams beating Suzanne Kosmas 60% to 40% in FL 24. Kosmas was an ObamaCare flipper, though not one of the Stupak group.
7:15 PM: Pause for pizza.
7:13: Drudge: REPUBLICANS WIN SENATE SEATS: AL, FL, GA, IN, OH, KY, MO, NH, SC…
DEMS WIN: CT, DE, MD…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: PA, IL…
No real surprises there…
7:09: ABC: Bucshon over Van Haaften 55% to 39% for IN 06, but Donnelly up over Walorski 49% to 46% with 56% reporting.
7:06 PM: “Fox News Projects GOP Marco Rubio Wins Fla.”
Hey, Charlie Crist:
7:02 PM: Well, thank God for PBS and their focus on public-minded–CLICK. “Trapped in an Elevator.” Your tax dollars at work.
7:00 PM: Glee, Fox? Dancing with the Stars, ABC? On election night? Thanks for NOTHING!
6:58 PM: Jackie Walorski up over Stupak-bloc flipper Joe Donnelly 53% to 42% with 19% of the vote in.
6:51 PM: Foxnew.com has Frank Guinta up over incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in NH1 by 12,585 to 10,348. If anyone had Shea-Porter on their endangered list, I must have missed it.
6:47 PM: Drudge predicting a 50 seat GOP pickup in the House.
6:44: PBS has Robert Hurt up over Dem Golden Boy Tom Perriello by 55%, in Virginia, despite national Dems pouring millions into the race. But the returns may not be representative of the district as a whole.
6:23 PM: Moving the TV into the office. Old 36″ tube. Weighs approx. 3 metric tons.
6:13 PM: Drudge exit polls via Instapundit:
Tea for Three: Coates, Paul, DeMint Win Senate Seats…
EXIT POLLS:
IL 49-43 Kirk [R]… NV TIED…
Arkansas: Boozman (R) over Lincoln (D)
California: Boxer [D] over Fiorina [R]
Florida: Rubio [R] over Crist [I], Meek [D]
Ohio: Portman (R) over Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) over Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) over Feingold (D)
6:11 PM: Whoa, that was quick. ABC, Fox, and NBC are already calling the Senate races for Rand Paul in Kentucky and Dan Coats in Indiana.
6:07 PM: The Fark election thread, for one of the few venues on the Internet where both left and right gather to drink heavily and troll each other.
6:00 PM: Greetings Instapundit readers! Damn he’s fast. Within minutes of me dropping him an email the link was up. It’s like that Warner Brothers cartoon when the wolf writes off for an anti-smoking kit, and when he goes out to mail the letter the postman drive out, snatches the letter from his hand, hands him the kit and drives off…
With the election tomorrow, I thought it was high time to offer up my own election predictions.
I have carefully and scientifically evaluated each and every House and Senate race, taking into account length of incumbency, previous voting trends for each district and state, fund-raising advantage, the most recent polls, and the fact that every preceding clause in this sentence prior to this one has been a complete and utter lie.
I have looked at a lot of polls and data but damn, there are only so many hours in the day. My predictions are based on general national mood, gut-feeling, and detailed looks at trends for select races.
This is going to be worse for the Democrats than 1994. The rise of the Netroots and the overwhelming support among the traditional news media dangerously blinded liberal insiders from how badly out-of-sync with the rest of the country they had become, and their insistence to push onward with ObamaCare despite widespread opposition and a lousy economy turned what was already going to be a bad year for them into a once-in-a-lifetime political slaughter.
I predict that the Democrats will lose 67 House seats.
As I admitted above, that’s not a wild-assed guess, but a guestimate based on current polling data and news on individual races. I don’t see Republicans gaining less than 50 seats, and there’s an outside possibility they could get 100. To my mind, it’s much more likely they’ll gain more than 67 than less than 50.
Among the individual House races, I predict all the Stupak-bloc flippersexcept Marcy Kaptur (who had the luck to draw Nazi Uniform Guy as her opponent) and Jerry Costello (much as I appreciate GOP candidate Teri Newman popping in to say the race is tied, I just don’t see any traction at all in a 54% Obama district; I’d love to be surprised) will lose, including:
Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana
Indiana’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by Brad Ellsworth)
Michigan’s open 1st congressional seat (formerly held by Bart Stupak)
West Virgina’s first district (held by Allan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primaries)
That’s 46 seats right there, and I think there’s easily another 21 seats to be had in districts that went narrowly for Obama in 2008 to provide the final margin of victory.
I predict that the Democrats will lose 10 Senate seats.
The Senate is a tougher nut to flip this year, and as I set down to gauge Republican chances, I was shocked to find that, despite insider predictions, I actually had them winning ten seats to take control of the Senate. Running down the Senate races that Real Clear Politics shows as tossups I was only getting nine seats, but then I remembered that Blanche Lincoln is losing so badly in Arkansas that they had that down as a safe Republican flip.
Republicans should take over the following ten Senate seats:
Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Much as I’d like to see an upset in California, I don’t see Carly Fiorina getting any traction in an overwhelmingly blue state; I think the out-migration of California’s best and brightest due to the high tax rates, crummy economy, the overwhelmingly powerful public sector unions and a near-bankrupt government (all related phenomena) has, ironically, made Californian even bluer.
The two races of the ten that will be most difficult for Republicans to pull off are Washington and West Virginia. Washington may be the tightest, simply because the Left Coast is so blue, but Rossi has been steadily gaining on Murray, and actually pulled ahead in the latest PPP poll. And PPP usually has a Democratic bias, so in a wave election, you have to give it to the Republican if polling is within the margin of error.
In West Virginia, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for Republican John Raese even though Joe Manchin is up four points in the most recent poll, for the following reasons:
McCain won West Virginia by 13.1 points in 2008, which was four points above the poll RCP average. Asking Manchin to run 14 points better in 2010 than Obama did in 2008 is a pretty tall order.
The state has been trending Republican for years. It went for Clinton over both Bush41 and Dole, but for Bush43 over Gore by 6.3%, and Bush43 over Kerry by 12.9%.
Along those same lines, Hillary Clinton beat Obama handily here in 2008, even though Obama had all but clinched the nomination at the time. West Virginia voters fit the classic “Jacksonian” profile, the portions of the Democratic base that has been most alienated by Obama’s policies.
Say what you will about the late Senator Robert Byrd, but he was extraordinarily popular in his home state right up to the end. But his name isn’t on the top of the ballot this time around, and without that reminder of their old “born and bred” Democratic allegiance to remind them, 2010 may finally be the year when remaining West Virginia conservative Democrats make the switch to the GOP.
Tonight would be a good time to locate your voter registration card so you have it handy tomorrow. It would also be a good time to locate your polling place:
I have a heavy weekend of activity (reviewing a movie, dinner, a party, Halloween, and another party), so blogging may be lighter than I would like for the weekend right before an election.
The Democrats are totally united to…save ONE liberal freshman congressman. With such such brilliant strategic thinking as that, how could they possibly lose this election?
Why the Pelosi Democrats suck, by retiring Democratic Congressman Brian Baird. If I had time I’d do a separate post entirely on this story, since some of the pull-quotes are devastating. “It’s been an authoritarian, closed leadership…Back in September, we had pollsters and strategists from my party tell members that the mass of people didn’t care about the deficit. The mind-boggling lack of reality coming from some of the people who give us so-called advice is stunning.” Read the whole thing.
There’s an election coming up on Tuesday. (Perhaps you’ve noticed.) Here are some links about it:
This National Journal poll of political insiders shows that both Democrats and Republicans think the GOP will take over the house, but fall short in the Senate. Some other factoids: Dem Insiders concede that Rand Paul is going to win the Kentucky Senate race, and they so slightly give the edge to Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois and Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania that I have to think the GOP is going to pick those up as well. By contrast, Republican insiders think they’ll pick up all four Senate seats (including Sharon Angle over Harry Reid in Nevada). And one Democratic insider even went so far as to predict that Barney Frank would lose.
Speaking of the LA Times: “As the S.S. Obama cruises toward its midnight rendezvous with a gigantic electoral iceberg on Nov. 2, the president’s communications aides are running around on deck, frustrated that their alternative storyline isn’t gaining traction in the cacophonous world of modern political babble.”
You hear that and you think that the Republican wave is going to be even larger than we anticipated. But remember that as much as we think of Kucinich as a liberal icon and his seat as a safe one, he only won his 2008 race by 57%; a very solid victory, to be sure, but not an overwhelming one given the Obama wave of 2008.
Certainly Kucinich is one of the most liberal members of congress, ran to Obama’s left in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries, and is known for having some pretty wacky ideas (like his bill for banning Orbital Mind Control Satellites; perhaps Rep. Kucinich has played one-too-many games of Illuminati).
But it would still be an upset. Kucinich has a lot of assets and advantages in his race: incumbency, a national liberal following, and a reputation as a genuine character.
And, of course, a very hot wife.
An incredibly hot redheaded wife.
This is a serious political post, and in no way a shameless attempt to get a Fark greenlight by posting all these pictures of Kucinich’s exceptionally hot wife.
This is a serious political blog.
Serious, I tell you!
If someone told me: “If you run for President, you’re going to lose really badly, but as a result, you’re going to marry an unbelievably hot wife,” I’d be filling out the paperwork tomorrow….
James Cameron calls for a vote against California’s Proposition 23, which would reign in the most radical of the state’s job-destroying “green” excesses. That’s Canadian citizen James Cameron.
Is Nurse Bloomberg planning a run for the Presidency in 2012? “If he runs, Bloomberg is prepared to spend between $1 to $3 billion on his campaign.” That’s Billion, with a “B”.
“Poll Finds Obama Voters Leaning Republican”: That was the original title for that New York Times piece. It looks like someone at the Obama White House got through on the emergency NYT Red Phone, as it now bears the less-depressing-for-liberals title “Obama Coalition Is Fraying, Poll Finds.” But the article itself should be just as distressing to them: “Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents.” And take a look at the accompanying graphic, which shows lots of groups breaking heavily for Republicans, including college-educated voters. Man, that’s got to really stiing for those enveloped in the soft comfort of the Obama Reality Bubble.
(Hat tips: Real Clear Politics, Fark, NRO’s The Corner, and probably some I’ve forgotten. I’m dancing as fast as I can.)
No reports of shots fired or such. My guess is it’s a false alarm or over-reaction, but I’ll update should it prove otherwise.
Update: As Karl Rehn noted in email “It is A&M and the week before deer season.” No indication thus far it’s anything other than a false alarm.
Update 2: The Houston Chronicle is reporting the following information about the suspect:
white male
wearing olive or green shirt and shorts
wearing back pack
carrying an AK-47
(Sigh) It’s always an AK-47 in early reports, isn’t it? Just because it happened to be the case for Colton Tooley’s suicide doesn’t mean its any less likely to be wrong for the next set of early reports.
I would provide a link to the Bryan/College Station Eagle update page, but there’s considerably less information there than here. Evidently they couldn’t find any time out from the vital work of endorsing Democrats to actually assign someone to cover the story.
Update 5: Seeing tweets that the “armed subject” was just a Corps of Cadets (that’s ROTC for those of you who don’t speak Aggie) member carrying his rifle to practice. Just how long has that bus driver been working at A&M? Did he not notice that they have a wee bit of military tradition there? (If true, this would also make the AK-47 bit especially absurd, since I imagine they practice drilling with rifles a lot closer to an M1 Garand.)
