November 10th, 2010
I’m sure the average BattleSwarm reader came to this conclusion heretofore, but Derek Thompson provides a statistical roundup in The Atlantic that proves it. They also find lesser effects for the other three votes I’ve highlighted here (Stimulus, TARP, and Cap-and-Trade):
For Democrats in the least Democratic districts, the model suggests a loss of about 4 percent for every yes vote. If vulnerable Democrats hadn’t voted for any of the four bills, he concludes, Democrats would have won 32 more seats, enough to retain control of the House. Even after you remove TARP (which was a must-vote in scary times), the three-vote impact was 24 seats — not enough to keep the House, but close.
Although at least one study he cites shows no effect for the last that can’t be explained for the other three.
But it all comes back to what all non-liberal Americans have been telling Democrats for a year or longer: It’s the ObamaCare, stupid.
Tags: Cap-and-Trade, Derek Thompson, Elections, ObamaCare, Stimulus, TARP
Posted in Democrats, Elections, ObamaCare | 1 Comment »
November 10th, 2010
Another day, another bucket of post-election links for your clickity goodness:
- Liberals admit what they really want.
- Rick Perry wins not despite skipping newspaper endorsements, but because of it. I’m glad to see Republican politicians finally picking up on this. “When in doubt, vote against the Statesman and Austin Chronicle‘s endorsements” has long been part of the standard operating procedures among my friends…
- Dick Morris on why Obama’s last minute appeals to the Democratic base partially blunted the Republican tsunami. A few salient points:
- Singles, under-$25,000-income voters, and voters 18-29 all decided late and broke for Obama, indicating the “rally the base” appeal partially worked.
- Blacks cast only 10 percent of the vote and Latinos only 8 percent in the 2010 elections. In 2008, they cast 13 and 10 percent, respectively.
- Union members broke evenly, with 49 percent backing Democrats and 47 percent voting Republican.
- Voters under 30 constituted only 11 percent of the vote, and those 18-24 were just 3 percent. [Insert generic geezer anti-Facebooking, Twitter, Pabst-Blue-Ribbon Swilling Anti-Hipster Get-off-My-Lawn rant here.]
- This year was pretty bad for Democrats, but 2012 isn’t looking much better: “Short-term trends look dismal for congressional Democrats. Even if Democrats turn their political fortunes around, they’re still likely to lose seats in the Senate and will be hard-pressed to make inroads in the House, thanks to factors entirely out of their control.” The reasons include Democrats playing defense on more Senate seats in red and battleground states, Republicans controlling redistricting and, of course, Nancy Pelosi. “Obama wasn’t the reason we lost. It was because of Pelosi. She was a turnout machine – for the other side.”
Tags: Democrats, Dick Morris, LinkSwarm, Nancy Pelosi, Obama, Rick Perry
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Media Watch, Republicans | 1 Comment »
November 9th, 2010
National Journal updates the state of play in the House races that still haven’t been decided yet.
Short version:
- California 11: Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney holds a 628-vote lead over Republican David Harmer, but not all ballots from Republican-leaning locales have been counted yet.
- California 20 Republican Andy Vidak leads Democratic incumbent Jim Costa by a mere 145 votes.
- Illinois 8: Republican Joe Walsh leads Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean, which should hold up unless Cook County cooks up some fraud (and when has that ever happened?).
- Kentucky 6: Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler leads Republican Andy Barr by 649 votes, recanvass starts next week
- New York 1: Republican Randy Altschuler leads Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop by either 392 votes or 383 votes.
- New York’s 25: Republican Ann Marie Buerkle leads Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei by 659 votes, but there are still ballots to be counted.
- Texas 27: Republican Blake Farenthold leads Democratic incumbent Solomon Ortiz by 792 votes, with only 736 overseas and provisional ballots left to count. Ortiz wants a manual recount.
Tags: Andy Barr, Andy Vidak, Ann Marie Buerkle, Ben Chandler, Blake Farenthold, Cook County, Dan Maffei, David Harmer, Democrats, Elections, Jerry McNerney, Jim Costa, Joe Walsh, Melissa Bean, Randy Altschuler, Recounts, Republicans, Solomon Ortiz, Tim Bishop
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
November 8th, 2010
Another day, another LinkSwarm.
- Liberal coach plays all players, good or bad, equal minutes, says having fun more important than winning. Conservative coach plays best players, makes winning the top priority. Guess which one they enjoy playing for more?
- Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds on to Arizona’s eighth congressional district over Jesse Kelly.
- A lot of those Democratic House seats lost this year may be gone for good, or at least a decade.
- Voters don’t want big government:
Democrats must grasp that their defeats were not about deficient personalities or insufficient communication, but about their philosophy and substance. Roughly two out of three voters agreed with the statements that President Obama “has failed to deliver hope and change” and that in the midst of an economic crisis, Democrats “had their priorities wrong.” The post-midterm realities are simple: If the Republicans don’t deliver on their promises, they’re finished. If the Democrats continue doing what they’re doing, they’re finished.
- Will Democrats get the message? Probably not, since some defeated Democrats are saying they lost because they just weren’t liberal enough, like defeated Dem congressman Alan “Crazy Pills” Grayson.
- They’re also getting ready to put Nancy Pelosi in charge of their caucus yet again.
Tags: Alan Grayson, Democrats, Elections, Gabrielle Giffords, Jesse Kelly, Nancy Pelosi, Obama
Posted in Democrats, Elections | No Comments »
November 6th, 2010
Now that the rush of the election is over, I’ve been taking it (relatively) easy for the past few days. Expect more post-election analysis next week. We’re also still waiting to hear back on not only those eleven House races where recounts are still ongoing, but there’s a twelfth race, between Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop and Republican challenger Randy Altschuler for New York’s First District, that is not only up in the air due to 3,500 ballots wrongly attributed to Bishop, but which Altschuler now leads (though several thousand absentee, etc. ballots remain to be counted). Once that is done I can do a post-election analysis of my predictions. (Pending those outcomes, it looks like I did pretty well for my House prediction, but not as good on the Senate.)
In the meantime, here are a few links of interest
Tags: Democrats, Elections, Randy Altschuler, Republicans, Tim Bishop
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans | No Comments »
November 4th, 2010
Just because the U.S. has an election doesn’t mean Islamic fundamentalists rest. So here’s a roundup of Islamic- and Jihad-related news from around the world.
Tags: Bill Mahar, CAIR, Democrats, Elections, Iran, Islam, Islamist, Jihad, Keith Ellison, MEMRI, Michael Totten, Oklahoma, Saudi Arabia, This Week in Jihad
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Jihad | 1 Comment »
November 4th, 2010
A few bits:
- Jim Gegharty speaks to Obi Wan: “The people tried trusting Democratic claims that they would govern as moderates. That didn’t work out, and that trust won’t be back any time soon”
- Republicans increased their share of trifectas (i.e., where they control both state congressional chambers and the Governorship) from 8 to 20, while the Democratic Party’s trifectas declined from 16 to 9. That means Republican’s big win will become even bigger next year for redistricting.
- The GOP also picked up state legislative chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
- Battle10 on the Republican takeover of Wisconsin.
- The quantity of Republican senators elected yesterday was lacking, but the quality of the ones getting in is impressive, especially considering who they replaced.
- I’m not a big Ann Coulter fan, but this debunking of pre-election myths has some nice bits of snark: “Republican landslides are apparently inevitable whenever Democrats try to turn our health care over to the Department of Motor Vehicles.” “Even Lindsey Graham is going to start voting with the Republicans!”
- Another Daily Kos writer employees the calm, dispassionate reason for which that site is known far and wide: “Screw you, whitey!”
- Today’s winner of the Least Psychic Pundit Award: Stuart Rothenberg: “There are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not ‘close to zero.’ Not ‘slight’ or ‘small.’ Zero.”
Tags: Ann Coulter, Daily Kos, Democrats, Elections, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Republicans, Stuart Rothenberg, Wisconsin
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 4th, 2010
Since I still haven’t found that complete list, here’s Jim Geraghty saying that it’s at least 60, and could be as high as 71. Right now Republicans are leading in five of those races, including Blake Farenthold leading Solomon Ortiz.
When I know the final total I’ll let you know.
Tags: Blake Farenthold, Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Solomon Ortiz
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans | No Comments »
November 3rd, 2010
I wanted to do a wrap-up of all House races, including the complete number of flips, except I can’t, as I can’t find a single list anywhere online. I know there are a handful of races that are still too close to call. But I don’t think what I want is too much to ask of one of the major news organizations: A list/table of all House races, with both major candidates listed, votes for each, and a % of votes, all on one page (and not, or not just, an interactive map). (I wouldn’t mind additional columns for the third party candidates, but its not a requirement.)
The most complete list of flips I’ve found is, ironically enough, from the other side from Firedog Lake. She counts 62 Democrat to Republican flips, two Republican to Democrat flips (Cao in LA 2 and Castle’s Delaware seat), eight undecided-but-leaning-Republican flips, and one more likely Democratic flip (HI 01). Which means the Republican flip total would be…67 seats.
Hmmm, that number seems strangely familiar…
Tags: Democrats, Elections, Joseph Cao, Republicans
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Media Watch, Republicans | No Comments »
