Despite President Donald Trump’s announcement of a pullout of American troops from Syria, the war against the Islamic State contains apace.
Information is scanty, but Syrian Democratic Forces appear to be systematically crushing what remains of the former Hajin pocket. Their offensive has rolled south into Shafa, AKA Al Shaafa, AKA Asi-Sha-Fah, and two British soldiers were wounded in an Islamic State missile attack there.
Here’s what the remnants of the Hajin pocket look like today:
This is what it looked like back on December 20:
There’s at least some evidence that other Arab countries are stepping in to pick up some of the slack:
In the last few days, Egyptian and UAE military officers visited the contested north Syrian town of Manbij. They toured the town and its outskirts, checked out the locations of US and Kurdish YPG militia positions, and took notes on how to deploy their own troops as replacements. On the diplomatic side, the White House is in continuous conversation with the UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Muhammed Bin Ziyad (MbZ) and Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi. The deal Trump is offering, is that they take over US positions in Manbij, where the Kurds have sought protection against a Turkish invasion, and American air cover will be assured against Russian, Syrian or Turkish attack.
As DEBKAfile has noted, the Egyptian president, during his four years in power, was the only Arab leader to consistently side with Bashar Assad against the insurgency against his regime. Assad may therefore accept the posting of Egyptian forces in Manbij so long as Syrian officers are attached to their units. The Syrian president would likely also favor a UAE military presence. Not only was the emirate the first Arab nation to reopen its embassy in Damascus after long years of Arab boycott, but unlike most of its Arab League colleagues, the UAE can well afford to contribute funding for the colossal reconstruction task needed for getting the war-devastated country on its feet.
Approval of the Egyptian-UAE forces to Manbij would kick off the stationing of mixed Arab forces in other parts of Syria, including the border with Iraq. If the Trump administration’s plans mature, then countries like Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Algeria would send troops to push the Iranian military presence out of key areas where they have taken hold.
That sounds swell. So swell that I’m suspicious that Syrian, Turkish and Russian leaders will actually let it happen. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
National Security Advisor John Bolton stated that U.S. trops would not complete their withdrawal from Syria until the Islamic State is defeated and the safety of the Kurds is guaranteed.
I would take this pronouncement with several grains of salt.
Even after Hajin falls, there are still large tracts of uninhabited land in Syria and Iraq the Islamic State hasn’t been cleared from. Just today, U.S. special forces conducted an operation near Kirkuk, Iraq that killed three Islamic State fighters who had reportedly been attacking the country’s electrical transmission infrastructure.
Also, the Islamic State in West Africa reportedly captured the town of Baga in northeastern Nigeria in late December.
Tags: Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt, Foreign Policy, Hajin, Iraq, Islamic State in West Africa, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Jihad, John Bolton, Kirkuk, Kurds, Manbij, Military, Muhammed Bin Ziyad, Nigeria, Shafa, Syria, Syrian Democratic Forces, UAE
This article is somewhat pessimistic about SDF chances. Shaafah has been ( largely) taken. Reinforcements are still arriving. SDF is quite capable of keeping IS infiltrants out. In kurdish region hardly any sleepercells. In arab regions more, but those are also slowly being eradicated.
To have just arab states providing forces along the border is dubious. They all come from autoritarian states that all suppress any minorities and opposition. They will likely clash with the kurds and armed females. Instead of protecting them.