German Dam On Ukraine Aid Finally Bursts

For most of last year there was a recurring pattern for German military aid to Ukraine:

  • The German government would talk about sending various types of modern military equipment to Germany.
  • The German government would actually send Ukraine numerous pallets of Diddly and Squat.
  • I almost did a post on “What’s holding up the German weapons pipeline?” Now, thanks to Peter Zeihan, we know that clog has a name: Christine Lambrecht, the German Defense Minister, who just resigned.

    Takeaways:

  • Lambrecht is not somebody with defense experience. She’s a politico. She has been up relatively high in Germany’s Social Democratic Party, which is a center-left party for decades. So it’s not that she’s a nobody, it’s just she doesn’t have a lot of skills that are appropriate to her current portfolio. This has not been a problem. In fact her specific, deliberate, intentional incompetence and defense matters in many ways was seen by the SPD as a plus.

    Until the Russo-Ukrainian War.

  • “The general position in Germany as a whole, and specifically in the SPD, was that the Defense Ministry itself is unnecessary, that in the aftermath of the Cold War, the threat to Germany is gone.”
  • Plus the deep-seated problem of all Germany’s Historical Unpleasantness.

  • So for the Germans, the post-cold war environment in Europe has been the best it’s ever been. You’re talking about a golden age, because NATO has provided defense, but all the countries that border Germany are either neutral, like Switzerland, or are members of NATO, which is basically everyone else. And in that sort of environment, the Germans can kind of dither and become pacifist socialists. Which, to be perfectly blunt, looking at the long stretch of German history is much, much, much, much, much, much better for everyone than the alternative.

  • “Lambrecht was put in charge of the Defense Ministry to basically continue slowly sliding it into functional oblivion.”
  • “That doesn’t work in an environment where the Russians are back on the warpath, and the Germans need to be starting thinking not just about 20th century military strategy, but 19th century military strategy, and Lambrecht was completely unprepared, professionally, personally and ideologically for this sort of shift.”
  • Indeed, she was a poor fit for a Germany doubling its defense budget. Plus, she hates the U.S.
  • “The Russians are not just mobilizing, but mobilizing in force. They’re finally beginning significant industrial upgrades. They’re finally starting to churn out missiles and ammo and tanks and numbers. And they are finally doing a full-scale mobilization. This isn’t the 300,000 that they did a few weeks ago. We’re talking about at least another half a million men likely being in the theater within a very few number of months.” Not sure where he’s getting this info, only see references to Russia considering it. (Unless my speculation that Russia was carrying out a full mobilization under the guise of a partial mobilization was on the mark.)
  • Germany may now finally move on approving other countries transferring Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. “There are a number of countries, specifically Denmark and Poland, who have been pressuring the Germans in order to allow them to take these exported tanks and then send them on to Ukraine. That requires Berlin’s approval, and Berlin at this point has been demurring. But the coalition now involves almost every single country that the Germans have sold the Leopards, to and so all of a sudden with Lambrecht gone, all of this is in motion, and I think we’re going to see the Germans relent.”
  • Faster, please.

    Finally, all of this is just an excuse to embedded this classic Norm Macdonald bit about Germany. “I’m not sure if any of you are history buffs…”

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    13 Responses to “German Dam On Ukraine Aid Finally Bursts”

    1. Kirk says:

      I don’t think the Russians are going to suddenly pull “military competency” out of a hat, and start winning this thing.

      The things that are going wrong for them are the ones that are endemic to a Potemkin force that hasn’t got depth in terms of low-level leadership and the “minor details” of discipline. The Russians haven’t displayed any real ability as of yet to get the small things right, which goes to imply further that the big things won’t be coming along any better.

      Modern war is a conflict of many tiny details that have to work all together smoothly. The Ukrainians have got their shit together, probably better than some Western armies. Their “Uber for artillery” app and the way they’re pulling together and integrating intel from everyone that observes is a key indicator; Russians are still demonstrating that they’re locked into the WWII modus operandi that is deficient in both speed and accurate response. The Ukrainians get report of activity, rounds drop before the Wagnerites get a chance to move out from under; the Russians get a report, and it’s apparently sometimes days before someone in a centralized Command Post releases fire control for engagement, by which time the Ukrainian targets have long since moved on.

      I think this is going to end badly for Russia. The more men they successfully mobilize and deploy, the more they’re going to lose. Everyone is saying they’ll get another Stalingrad, but I’m seeing another Tannenberg or Tsushima coming for them.

      The Ukrainians are adapting under pressure, and improving. The Russians? Not so much; I think you’re going to see maybe one more major offensive, and then if it fails, well… That’s all she wrote.

      It’s the little things, like field discipline and all the rest of the “tells”. I used to be an Observer/Controller at the NTC. You can tell a proficient unit by the body language and the actions of the troops. I’m not seeing any positive signs on the Russian side, at all; my read is that they’re not even up to the very worst of our standards, and could probably not manage to do what a lot of our National Guard units did and improve immeasurably during just a two-week rotation at the National Training Center. I think they’ll still be curled up and drunken when the end-stages finally hit home; they’re not going to be able to unf*ck themselves from this. They need strong junior leadership that they just don’t have. You can’t run a modern war on conscripts and professional officers that don’t want to do the nitty-gritty crap that an NCO corps does.

    2. John Fisher says:

      I wonder only half in jest if the German defense ‘awakening’ has more to do with Poland than Russia. Poland is arming itself to the teeth and it has no more love for Germany than it does for Russia.

      https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-south-korea-seal-58-billion-military-deal-88889833
      https://www.foxnews.com/world/poland-seeks-purchase-apache-attack-helicopters-from-us-making-second-largest-fleet-world
      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/nation/story/2022-09-16/poland-south-korea-seal-3-billion-military-aircraft-deals

      Add this to Poland’s purchase of F35s (which it will get before Germany) and its planned upgrade to its F16s and even a pacifist in Germany would pause.

    3. Seawriter says:

      There is a joke about a Polish general who was inspecting Polish troops. He picked out one soldier at random and asked, “If a German and a Russian were invading us at the same time, who would you shoot first?”

      “Sir,” replied the private, “The German.”

      “Why? asked the bemused general.

      “Sir,” replied he private. “Business before pleasure. Always, sir.”

    4. Kirk says:

      Germany has gone into another era of quiescence and ineffectuality, much like the one it was in for many years of the 18th and 19th Centuries, when their neighbors walked all over them.

      How long that’s going to last? No idea. Same with the Russians; they usually have about a fifty-fifty ratio of “success at making war” on their own, and a really abysmal overall success rate at making war on peer-level enemies. So long as you’re looking at cases wherein they’re dealing with smaller states on their borders, and the usual run of incremental takeovers that they’ve classically done, they’re OK; the peer-level stuff? Oi, vey…

      The one constant thing in Russian history is the line anyone studying the subject soon learns: “And then, it got worse…”

      Usually for entirely self-inflicted reasons.

    5. BigFire says:

      A lot of stuff shipped to Ukraine are stuff that US have already retired, like the Bradley Vehicle. It’s actually costing us money to keep in reserve storage. Likewise, Poland already offload their Soviet Era T72 and T80s to Ukraine, and want to off load their Gen1-2 Leopards as it’s a hassle to maintain (with lots of restriction from German on how it can be maintain and upgraded). Poland is moving forward with their next batch of tank and IFV acquisition with South Korean. Not only are they getting K2 tank, but they’re also setting up for technological transfer to build the K2-P variant that’s going to be build in Poland. There are still a lot of near dead weight stuff that can flow to Ukraine.

    6. Paul from Canada says:

      I don’t remember where I read this, some news article or blog, I imagine.

      In Afghanistan, Canadian and German soldiers were to share responsibility for manning a guard tower at some FOB or air base or whatever. The Germans ended up refusing, and leaving the Canadians to man it on their own. The reason for this was that the temperature was below a certain value, and the guard tower was not heated, and the Germans invoked their “union rules”.

      A Canadian officer was asked about this, wasn’t he disappointed about being left in the lurch by his supposed ally? Not at all, was his reply. Individually, German soldiers are just as capable as ever, but the institution had deteriorated. In his opinion, given Canadian military history, he considered this to be a great development!

    7. Kirk says:

      Whatever happens near-term, the long-term result of this “Russian initiative” is going to be more heavily armed and far more adversarial neighbors for Russia.

      Which makes one wonder what the hell the point of it all is, because the amount of money that’s going to wind up getting pumped into the various armed forces of the regions surrounding Russia will represent a net waste of resources that should have gone somewhere more productive and beneficial.

      Ah, well… Idiots, all of them.

    8. Steve White says:

      “The general position in Germany as a whole, and specifically in the SPD, was that the Defense Ministry itself is unnecessary, that in the aftermath of the Cold War, the threat to Germany is gone.”

      That was absolutely true from 1989 to 2019. Germany faced no external threat at all, and any rational politician would do what Germany did — slow military spending not just to the absolute minimum, but well below that. France, the Low Countries, Denmark, Austria, Poland, Switzerland — none were threats. Russia was a disorganized hot mess. There was no threat.

      You could argue very well that there is no threat today. Russia is still a hot mess. If Germany needs a tad more defense, give weapons to the Ukrainians who will fight and die to save Germany. There is no other threat on the horizon.

      No, Germany will not re-arm and it will not build quality into its armed forces. It will help its NATO allies only to the bare minimum (or below), and it will help Ukraine only as needed to keep the Russians busy. It’s downright Machiavellian, and it’s working.

    9. tim maguire says:

      I don’t see German pacifism as any kind of change or meaningful rejection of past German militarism. I see pacifism and militarism as two sides of the same coin of German extremism.

    10. Kirk says:

      I don’t see what the Germans are doing as pacifism. If it were, they’d have stopped Rheinmetall from building Russia’s training areas and munitions plants.

      What I see it as is “outsourcing imperialism” to the Russians; so long as they’re getting the resources, who cares what color flag is being flown where the resources are coming from? All Germany cares about is cheap food, cheap fuel, and markets for their industrial goods. Never mind that the people giving them all three are doing so at the expense of their neighbors, who’re getting ass-raped continuously…

    11. […] Attacking so fast they won't know what hit them… « German Dam On Ukraine Aid Finally Bursts […]

    12. John Oh says:

      Some events lead to other events.
      Germany is just about independent of Russian energy. Big expense, but out from under. The fact that the Germans allowed themselves to become so dependent as Putin got crazier speaks volumes.
      Poland is buying tanks and tech from Korea. Germany just lost a big customer for the Leopard. Industrial jobs and revenue in jeopardy. If Germany doesn’t get with it, other Eastern Eurpean clients might also jump.
      Want to sell more Leopards? Let you clients in the EU donate the old ones to Ukraine and sell them new ones.
      If Germany really wanted to end this quickly it would tell Siemans and Rheinmetal to turn off the software the Russians use to make what little machinery they make in Russia. Russian heavy industry is not much better than the army when it comes to machine tools and actually building stuff.

    13. […] dragging its feet until now. Previous German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht was reportedly the clog in the process, and given this came down a week after her departure suggests that was in fact the […]

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