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Russia Update: Gas Shortages, Plane Shortages, Crimea’s Collapse

Thursday, July 2nd, 2026

The longer Russia’s illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine continues, the more things in Russia (and occupied Ukraine) seem to be breaking.

First up: gasoline shortages across Russia.

The lines are growing at Russian gas stations — and so is the frustration and uncertainty as several months of Ukrainian attacks have set oil refineries ablaze and choked supplies for motorists across the vast country.

Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s major Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday.

Almost daily long-range attacks on Russian oil facilities have created a fuel crisis and heaped political pressure on the Kremlin as its all-out invasion of Ukraine stretches into its fifth year.

The Ufa refinery is one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants and is located more than 600 miles from Ukraine, Zelensky said on social media.

Ukraine also struck a plant producing missile components in Russia’s Penza region southeast of Moscow, some 300 miles from Ukraine, Zelensky said.

Russian officials did not confirm the strikes, which could not be independently verified. The Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 179 Ukrainian drones over 16 Russian regions, the annexed Crimea and waters of the Azov and the Black Sea.

Evidence suggests that Ukrainian drones are most often intercepted by their targets.

Fuel rationing has been introduced in many Russian regions, with hourslong queues of cars snaking beside roads. Social media videos show drivers aghast at the lines or swearing at empty gas pumps and rising prices. The mayor of the Siberian city of Irkutsk even ordered portable toilets brought in to accommodate those in line.

Siberia is full of oil, yet there’s still a shortage of gasoline there.

The fuel crisis — unprecedented for a nation that is one of the world’s biggest energy producers — has brought Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine home to ordinary Russians like few other events in the war, now in its fifth year.

It drew a rare admission from President Vladimir Putin, who acknowledged “problems persist for both motorists and businesses,” and “there are still queues at petrol stations, and finding the right grade of petrol isn’t always easy.”

He insisted the shortages are “not critical” and “temporary.”

I’m sure the situation will ease once the three day special military operation concludes…

But that appeared to do little to reassure at least one motorist in Moscow, the wealthy capital typically better-insulated from economic shocks than the rest of the country.

“I think the situation is not very good,” the motorist waiting in line told the Associated Press on Monday, the day after Putin’s televised remarks.

“They say one thing on television, and in reality it’s another. … People are queueing everywhere,” he added, declining to give his full name out of safety concerns.

Zelensky on Monday echoed that sentiment, writing on Telegram that “Putin can go on and on, claiming on TV that he supposedly has everything under control,” but Russians can see that the war “has reached the point where even an oil state — a gas station, as Russia used to be called — is now facing gas shortages.”

An AP count shows over 50 reported attacks by Ukraine on oil refineries, depots, terminals and other energy infrastructure in Russia and the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula since March. Often, the same facility was hit more than once -– such as the refinery in the Black Sea town of Tuapse that was struck four times.

See pretty much every LinkSwarm over the last year for details.

The amount of crude oil Russia processed into fuel in June was down 25% from a year ago, to 3.95 million barrels per day — the lowest level in over two decades, said Gary Peach, oil markets analyst at Energy Intelligence.

“The outages are extraordinary,” he said.

Gasoline production has fallen 17% to 850,000 barrels a day, from 1.03 million a day a year ago — far short of what the domestic market needs. Russia exports relatively little gasoline.

About a third of Russia’s oil refining capacity is offline, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy, noting that because refineries don’t publicly confirm the extent of the damage, his estimate comes from anecdotal evidence and oil industry sources.

“It comes at a very critical time for the Russian economy, in that the agriculture season, particularly the harvest season, is now starting to ratchet up,” increasing demand, Weafer said.

Ukrainian officials describe the strikes as a campaign to pressure Moscow to end the war by undermining military logistics and supply lines and weakening its ability to mount front-line assaults.

In particular, Kyiv has sought to isolate Crimea, which was seized from Ukraine in 2014 in a move most nations don’t recognize. Attacks this year forced the Moscow-installed authorities to enact fuel rationing on the peninsula in May and halt sales to civilians there altogether. Limited sales later resumed in the city of Sevastopol.

Speaking of occupied Crimea, so many people are seeking to escape the resource-starved peninsula that the traffic jam at the Kerch Strait Bridge is visible from space.

  • “Thousands of cars rushed the last route out of Crimea, now jamming the Kerch Bridge with thousands of cars at a complete standstill.”
  • “The delays result not only from the number of people wanting to leave, but also from repeated closures during Ukrainian drone alerts, intensified security inspections, and worsening logistical disruption across Crimea.”
  • A “few motorists still driving into Crimea strapping industrial fuel tanks onto the roofs of their cars and connecting them directly to their fuel tanks with hoses. The improvised setup is extremely dangerous, creating obvious fire and explosion risks, yet many drivers appear willing to accept those dangers simply to carry enough gasoline to be able to escape the peninsula once they finished what they came to Crimea to do.”
  • “Russian military decisions are simultaneously making the situation even worse, as Russian commanders have redirected both civilian and military traffic onto the Kerch Bridge. Instead of being one of several transport arteries, the bridge has become the peninsula’s primary logistics lifeline, working beyond its practical capacity, due to the Ukrainian strikes that have repeatedly disrupted the Melitopol-Mariupol corridor and heavily damaged northern Crimean crossings.”
  • “Military convoys, fuel trucks, civilian traffic, and freight vehicles all compete for the same limited crossing. Rather than solving Russia’s logistics problems, rerouting traffic has concentrated nearly everything onto a single vulnerable bottleneck.”
  • “The resulting congestion has forced Russian authorities to adopt extraordinary measures, declaring a state of emergency within Crimea. This grants them broad powers to restrict civilian movement and establish procedures to prioritize military transportation over civilian traffic.”
  • “Residents increasingly complain that gasoline has become unavailable and that public transportation is being disrupted because minibuses cannot obtain sufficient fuel. These shortages coincide with repeated Ukrainian strikes targeting Crimea’s broader energy network, including the Kerch and Simferopol thermal power plants, electrical substations, gas compressor stations, and various major and minor fuel and gas depots. Together, these attacks have affected electricity generation, gas distribution, fuel storage, and logistics simultaneously, causing rolling blackouts, water supply disruptions, and persistent fuel shortages affecting civilian life.”
  • “Instead of easing the burden by facilitating departures, Russian authorities are using emergency powers to preserve transport capacity primarily for military logistics. Civilians therefore bear much of the cost of sustaining Russian operations, finding themselves trapped by restrictions while essential supplies are increasingly directed toward the military.”

    • And after four years of war, the Russian military is running out of, well, pretty much everything.

  • “Russia is running out of bombers, and it can’t replace those that are being destroyed. There’s a deep crisis in Russia’s aviation sector, and it spells disaster for Putin’s plans for 2027.”
  • “There is nothing that demonstrates Russia’s problems better than what is happening with its Tu-22 bombers. On June 16, Euromaidan Press revealed that Russia started its war with Ukraine with a stockpile of 41 Tu-22M3 bombers. Now, it may only have nine left.” Euromaidan is, of course, firmly pro-Ukrainian.
  • ‘Every Tu-22 that goes down is an airframe that can’t be used to pelt Ukraine with missiles and bombs.”
  • “Russia hasn’t made any new Tu-22s since 1993. Russia has been losing Tu-22s by the bucketload, and absolutely none of them are being replaced.”
  • “Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, at least 24 Tu-22s have been destroyed or damaged, and all that Russia has in place is a modernization program designed for the declining stockpiles of Tu-22s that it still has in its arsenal. There are no spare parts. Even minor damage to one of these bombers can result in it being completely written off, as Russia doesn’t have what it needs to make repairs. That means that every Tu-22 that goes down is a bomber that Russia will never be able to replace.”
  • “It’s a systemic production failure problem that extends to the entire Russian aerospace industry, both military and commercial.”
  • Management turnover at Tupolev snipped.
  • “Russia’s Defense Ministry received almost $53.5 million in combined settlements from Tupolev. That number is interesting, because it is roughly the same as the cost to modernize a Tu-95MS bomber, and it’s about a quarter of the amount that Russia spends to build a Tu-160M. In other words…not a whole lot. And if that’s all that Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed, it reveals plenty about the state of Russian bomber manufacturing. The company that is supposed to be refurbishing Russia’s aging fleet could even push one Tu-95MS out of its doors. Looking beyond that, the company was also supposed to produce four Tu-160Ms for the ministry, all of which were to be built between 2022 and 2023, and delivered in 2025. But only two ever reached the Russian military, and both arrived in 2026, which is a year after the initial deadline.”
  • “One of the biggest problems Russia faces [is] being forced to burn through multiple old tanks just to get one up and running again. Euromaidan Press reported on this issue in April, noting that Russia was running out of T-72Bs that it could refurbish, which had led to it cannibalizing older T-72As just to get some metal on the battlefield. At the time, Russia had between 800 and 900 T-72As, though only around 500 could be possible candidates for refurbishment. The rest would have to be stripped for parts to be used in that refurbishment, and Russia would likely have been far short of what it needed to get all 500 possible refurbs functioning.”
  • “Now, take that problem and transplant it into a bomber fleet for which there are only a few dozen airframes available, rather than hundreds. Cannibalization still has to happen. But Russia runs out of the parts it needs much faster, and, as with its tanks, it doesn’t have the facilities needed to build more. These are, by and large, Soviet-era bombers, and Russia has long shut down many of the plants that made the parts used to build these airframes decades ago.”
  • “Since production resumed on the Tu-160 in 2019, only six have been delivered to the Russian armed forces. Russia lost twice that many bombers to Operation Spiderweb alone, and it’s lost many more besides.”
  • “This is a problem that we see across all of Russia’s military. The Soviet-era systems on which Putin has relied so heavily in the war against Ukraine are one-and-done. Geopolitical Monitor says that in the air, Su-25 close support aircraft are no longer produced, meaning that the airframe has the same problems as Russia’s bomber fleet. The T-80 tank family also can’t be replaced, which means every ‘new’ T-80 we see on the battlefield is really just another refurb that Russia managed to create by stripping away parts from other T-80s.”
  • “TL;DR: If it was made during the Soviet era, Russia no longer has the tools or know-how to replace it.”
  • “Russia is launching 180 to 250 glide bombs at Ukraine every single day, which requires the flying of 200 sorties per day, which, in turn, places enormous amounts of stress on pilots and their airframes. Now, consider this rate of aerial attack when stacked up against Russia’s bomber problem. Russia’s bombers are used to launch cruise missiles and glide bombs. Every single time one of those bombers goes down, be it to a Ukrainian attack, a crash at a base, or simple maintenance issues caused by flying far too many sorties, that’s an attacking threat that is permanently grounded.”
  • “Slowly, but surely, Russia is running out of its irreplaceable Tu-22s and Tu-95s, and it isn’t building Tu-160s at anywhere near the rate needed to keep up the pressure. When the bombers run out, the attacks stop.”
  • Then there’s the nuclear issue, as all those dwindling numbers of bombers are nuclear weapon capable. “Given how much Russia loves to throw around its nuclear weight as an intimidation tactic, the real-time crumbling of a large part of its nuclear triad is a situation that actively weakens Russia on the global stage, not just in Ukraine. Russia’s nuclear threat is losing muscle by the month.”
  • Russia has similar problems keeping it’s seized Boeing and Airbus airliners flying. “In January, The Moscow Times reported that one of Russia’s solutions for the inevitable shortages this situation creates is going to be to send Russian airlines mothballed Soviet-era aircraft in 2026 and 2027. That isn’t a solution. It’s a continuation of the problem that we’re seeing in Russia’s bomber fleet.”
  • “Not even Russia’s modern airframes can escape the sanctions problems. In both the Su-34 and Su-35S, around 80% of the critical electronic components needed to make those jets usable are made in the West.”
  • “There is no road to recovery that can be followed while the Ukraine war continues.”

    • Every day Putin continues his illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine, more and more things in Russia break.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military, video | 8 Comments »

    Dick Cheney, RIP

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2025

    Former Vice President Dick Cheney has died at age 84. It’s easy to talk about why Cheney is widely disliked (indeed, loathed) by many Republicans now. It’s much harder to remember and talk about why he was so widely admired by Republicans in his heyday.

    One of the first things to remember about Cheney is he had a long resume in Republican politics. He was Gerald R. Ford’s Chief of Staff, a U.S. congressman from Wyoming, Chair of the House Republican Policy Committee, Chair of the House Republican Conference, and (briefly) House Minority Whip, roles in which he was preceded or succeeded by people like Jack Kemp, Trent Lott and Newt Gingrich. He was clearly regarded as a very mainstream conservative Republican at the time.

    After the senate rejected the nomination of former Texas Senator John Tower to be Secretary of Defense, Bush41 tapped Cheney for the role. Cheney was so unpopular that he sailed through the senate on a vote of 92 to 0, including Yea votes from such notorious left-wingers as Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Daniel Inouye and Barbara Mikulski (not to mention Joe Biden). Obviously, it was a different time. His election was so in the bag a whole bunch of Republicans (like Phil Gramm) didn’t even bother voting.

    Cheney was widely regarded as a very good Secretary of Defense, helping oversee the end of the Cold War with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, overseeing a successful invasion of Panama to remove dictator and drug-trafficker Manuel Noriega, and overseeing the successful operation of Desert Storm. Cheney was not the primary architect of Desert Storm, but was heavily involved in the planning carried out by General Norman Schwarzkopf, and he let Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Colin Powell function as the public face of the D.C. end of the operation. He deserves credit for solid administration at a time the defense budget was actually shrinking.

    By the standards of late 20th-century Republican, or indeed, consensus foreign-policy positions, Cheney’s views (muscular, anti-communist, Atlanticist, pro-Israel, globalist, etc.) were deeply uncontroversial at the time. The need to liberate Kuwait to prevent Saddam Hussein from controlling that much of the world’s oil supply was a bipartisan consensus policy, as shown by the congressional vote authorizing the use of military force against Iraq, which even Al Gore voted in favor of. At the time, “Neo-conservative” only meant a former liberal who had become a conservative, usually for their opposition to communism. The only significant voice on the right arguing against Desert Storm was Patrick Buchanan, who was considered more than a little funny about Jews.

    Bush41 would lose to the political gifted but morally corrupt Bill Clinton (who would eek out two electoral pluralities thanks to Ross Perot), and Cheney would go off the run Halliburton.

    I don’t remember the increasingly leftwing press flipping the switch from “Ordinary Politician” to “Master of Darkness” on Cheney until Bush43 tapped him as his Vice Presidential running mate. The press hated Bush43 for his “cowboy” manners, his accent, his parentage, and whomping favorite Ann Richards to get elected Texas governor. But their fury grew to gargantuan proportions following the 2000 Florida “hanging chad” election, where W managed to deploy enough legal firepower to prevent Democrats from stealing away his narrow 537 vote win. The victory in the Gulf War only made them hate Bush all the more, especially when Halliburton got picked to help run post-war reconstruction in Iraq.

    Until Trump broke liberal brains, there were generally only two ways the modern left-leaning press thought of Republican Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates: Evil masterminds (Nixon, Agnew, Dole (to an extent)) or dunces (Ford, Reagan, Bush43, Quayle, Palin, Ryan). If Bush43 was the dunce, then Cheney must be the evil mastermind. Cheney didn’t mind being the heavy, and didn’t seem to care what the press thought about him. (Accidentally shooting a guy in the face on a hunting trip didn’t help either.) Republicans liked Cheney for the same reason; he may have been a sonofabitch, but he was our sonofabitch. Having never been elected to the House or Senate, Bush43 delegated a lot of tasks to Cheney, since he knew the ends and outs of how the sausage got made, which gave rise to the leftwing myth of Cheney being the “evil puppetmaster” controlling 43. This was always bunk.

    Caspar Weinberger and Donald Rumsfeld were never treated with the absolute loathing the left aimed at Cheney…but they almost certainly would have been had they been Bush43’s veep pick.

    Somewhere along the way, “Neo-conservative” morphed away from its classical meaning to shorthand for “anyone who ever supported either Iraqi war or the war in Afghanistan,” never mind that all were overwhelmingly supported by Republicans at the time, just as the expensive difficulties of reconstructing Iraq came to be condensed down to “nation-building,” and Cheney was retroactively convicted of both.

    Along the way, the Cheney=evil meme became so codified that The Simpsons had Smithers work for him after leaving Mr. Burns’ employ.

    Then along came Donald Trump, and all the rules that had held for Republicans since at least Reagan went by the wayside. In 2016 Cheney reluctantly endorsed Trump after he clinched the nomination, became further alienated from him after Trump’s criticism of daughter Liz Cheney, and ultimately voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. When he started criticizing Trump, Dick Cheney earned Strange New Respect™ from the leftwing media that had previously declared him the devil incarnate.

    To an extent, Cheney’s Trump-skepticism was not uncommon among Bush Republicans. A whole lot of Republicans (myself included) backed Ted Cruz in 2016, were disappointed when Trump won the nomination (ditto), and were skeptical Trump would govern as a conservative (ditto). Most of us were very pleasantly surprised when Trump made solid Supreme Court picks. Indeed, as the left became more radically unhinged in their searing hatred for Trump, the more Trump policy resembled that of traditional conservative Republicans.

    But for Cheney, and the small handful of Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers on the establishment right, AKA Conservatism Inc., AKA Cruise Ship Conservatism, nothing could every sway them away from their initial distaste and dislike of Trump. He was always going to be Spy magazine’s short-fingered vulgarian, and was simply NOKD (Not Our Kind, Dear). Never mind that in 10 months, Trump47 has more real policy accomplishments than any President since Reagan. It will never be enough to change their irrational loathing of him. And they’ll never celebrate all his #winning because he keeps winning the wrong way.

    Cheney was a very successful Secretary of Defense and Vice President, but like many Bush Republicans, the world changed underneath him, and he could never accept that Trump was a rebuke not only to the social justice excesses of Obama, but to various policy failures under both Bushes.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military, Republicans | 7 Comments »

    Malice On Communism’s Malice

    Saturday, February 1st, 2025

    How long has it been since we did a post bashing communism? Well that’s too long!

    Here Michael Malice talks with Yaron Brook and Lex Fridman about writing his book The White Pill: A Tale of Good and Evil (which I guess I should track down now) about the evils of communism and how western intellectuals covered up for them so long.

  • The clip starts with Malice describing Ayn Rand testifying before the House Committee on Unamerican Activities about the horrors of communism she witnessed before escaping the Soviet Union, and them simply not getting it.
  • Michael Malice: “The broader point in the book is how ignorant many people are in the west about the horrors of Stalinism and Communism, but also how many people in the west were complicit in saying to Americans ‘Go home, everything’s fine, this is great.'”
  • MM: “They really made a point to downplay, really gratuitously, some of the unimaginable atrocities of communism.”
  • MM: “Many people I’m friends with who are historians, who are interested in the space, this isn’t common knowledge to them, then we can assume that almost no one knows about it.” Conservatives knew about in the in the 1980s, thanks to coverage of Robert Conquest’s The Harvest of Sorrow: Soviet Collectivization and the Terror-Famine and a 1985 documentary on the subject that I remember being played on PBS a few years later.
  • MM: “American exceptionalism has a positive context, but also has a negative context, where you think we’re invincible. All these horrible things happen to these other countries that can’t possibly happen here. We’re America, we’re special, and it’s completely an absurdity.”
  • Malice and Brook talk about the film Mr. Jones, which i still need to track down, and how New York Times reporter Walter Duranty. MM: “He was talking about how great it was, how if you hear about this famine in Ukraine this is just propaganda. “I went to the villages, you know everyone’s happy and fed.’ A lot of it was explicit lies.”
  • MM: “Anne Applebaum, who’s just a phenomenal, phenomenal writer [Or was before the TDS got her. -LP], she wrote a book called Red Famine: Stalin’s War in Ukraine, and she talks about how what people in America don’t appreciate is how clever in their sadism the Soviets were. And what they knew to do to Ukraine is, everyone is starving, so they knew if you got some meat on your bones, you’re hiding food. So they come back at night, take your hand, put in the door jam, keep slamming the door, ransack your house. They didn’t have to find the food, they burn down your house, take all your clothes, goodbye and good luck.”
  • Yaron Brook: “The view of the intelligencia: [Communism] is a great idea, it just was badly implemented. And no, it’s a rotten idea, it’s an evil idea, and it was implemented exactly, it was implemented exactly how it has to be implemented. There’s no alternative.”

    • Longtime readers know that I always recommend Conquest’s The Harvest of Sorrow as the first book to read on the Stalin’s terror famine in Ukraine. And of course the Holodomor was just just one of communism’s many, many genocides…

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    Posted in Communism, Media Watch, video | 3 Comments »

    How A Coffee Shortage Almost Ended East Germany

    Saturday, January 6th, 2024

    East Germany was widely cited as the most successful of the Warsaw Pact puppet states, the one whose industrious nature “made communism work.” That was never true, but East Germany did seem to function more efficiently than the rest of the bloc.

    One reason: Coffee.

  • “In the fall of 1977 the Ministry for State Security, the Stasi, East Germany’s feared secret police, warned the government that the country was on the verge of revolt. The trust lost in this incident would never be restored.”
  • “From the beginning, East Germany did not have access to the same level of luxury goods as the non-Soviet bloc West. Immediately after the second World War and through the 1950s, the Soviet Union supplied most of the coffee in the German Democratic Republic.”
  • “As East Germany became more autarkic from the Soviet Union, so followed its need to supply coffee independently.”
  • “The average East German coffee household expenditure was twice the amount spent on shoes, and equal to the amount spent on furniture.”
  • “This accounted for 4% of all retail sales in the GDR. As the East German state attempted to gain coffee independence, they also pushed as a core part of East German identity. Coffee allowed workers to be more productive, which contributed to a more prosperous society while maintaining an aesthetic of an invigorated society.”
  • “There was a problem though: it was a scarce resource and it was expensive to import. But, because of its importance, the Socialist Unity Party (the SED, who were effectively the state) saw a bargain that could be had from it. By being able to provide a scarce resource, it gave them legitimacy. But to gain this legitimacy they were constantly fighting back against a black market.”
  • “Officially any interaction with the black market
    was illegal. Unofficially everyone knew it existed, and the Socialist Unity Party wasn’t happy with it, but it offered a window into what scarce resources would engender support if they could provide them.”

  • “Even before the Cold War, coffee in Germany was scarce – the blends were often not real coffee but blends of varying quality. This continued on after the post-war division and a fight between the Socialist Unity Party and the people of East Germany. The SED wanted to be the ones to provide coffee – the public wanted more of it and at a better quality. Thus developed a black market that the SED was constantly trying to stay ahead of.”
  • “One of the reasons for the Berlin Wall was that the SED couldn’t regulate the black market. It allowed goods to flood in from the West they were trying to provide, while allowing goods from the East (with subsidized prices) to flow out.”
  • “But, by 1973, things in East Germany had stabilized and things were, well, good. At least according to the CIA.”
  • “The SED had achieved a Faustian bargain: A black market where people had to depend upon relationships with each other to get access to goods meant that the populace actively grew in solidarity with each other.”
  • “The average East German citizen was willing to deal with shortages because it was something everyone was enduring together. In short, East Germany had entered a period of political stability, with a relatively high standard of living, and the shortcomings of the system reinforced the ideals that the system preached.”
  • “Two events at the beginning of the 1970s shook the East German economy to its core: the 1973 oil shock, and a failed coffee crop in Brazil. These events compounded within the fragile East German economy: to import goods from the west (such as oil) they needed to use western currency. As the price of oil skyrocketed, so did the rate at which East Germany drained its reserves of Western currency.” This part I’m not so sure of. I believe that East Germany imported most (but not all) of its oil from the Soviet Union under the Comecon plan. Oil prices from that did increase, but not immediately.
  • “Luxury goods, like coffee, became prohibitively expensive in an economy planned out to the penny. Before the failed coffee crop, East Germany spent 150 million marks per year on coffee imports. After the crisis began, this number had skyrocketed to 700 million. The SED was faced with a dilemma: money for oil, or marks for mocha?”
  • “They attempted to split the difference. The only coffee imported would be the higher end blends that the party leadership used. Lower end brands were either eliminated completely, or the recipe adjusted to use less coffee. Further, certain blends would only be available in Intershops, which required the use of Western currency – which would help the state refill it’s currency coffers.”
  • “East Germans rejected the new coffee mixes in a way the state was not prepared for. In a report to SED leadership on September 1, 1977, the Ministry for State stated that, ‘the quality and price of [the new coffee mixes] are rejected by broad circles of the population.'”
  • “Complaints recorded by the Stasi included ‘critical indications of taste,’ and a first indication that the new mixes were unable to be processed to the ‘full filtering capability in household machines.’ The coffee mixes were breaking the machines.”
  • “The Stasi further expressed in this report that workers resented party officials requesting austerity for workers, while still importing ‘expensive Western cars for officials.'”
  • “Additionally, Stasi reports say that citizen did not believe the ‘information policy.’ Far from just rejecting the new coffee mixes, were rejecting the SED’s handling of the crisis.”
  • “By September 12, the frustration over austerity moved to unrest. A Stasi report stated that in discussions among workers, ‘skeptical, resigned, pessimistic and negative opinions up to aggressive arguments become clear.'”
  • “While blaming Western media for this development, the Stasi also states that there are rumors of ‘warning strikes.'” These strikes would demand wages be paid in Western currency so that they could shop at the Intershops.”
  • “In relation, the report states growing frustration with the expansion of Intershop stores, with the simultaneous ‘elimination of low-price coffees and the limited supply in restaurants.’
  • Workers also believed that the classless East German society was now stratified, with three distinct categories: those without western currency who would be forced to endure austerity, those with access to western currency who could shop at Intershops, and ‘privileged persons and high officials who…drove expensive Western cars and [weren’t] affected by austerity.'”
  • “These last two categories were contrasted with the common worker and pensioner who ‘have returned to the point where begging letters have been sent to [West Germany]’ for coffee.'”
  • They were even criticizing Party officials! “East Germany was on the precipice of a revolt.”
  • “The SED would finally act on 23 September to contain the growing unrest. The price of the lowest quality mixes was reduced, and a communication was published on the coffee shortage, explaining the reasoning behind austerity measures.”
  • East Germany also started sourcing coffee from Vietnam.

    • Eventually, of course, East Germany would cease to exist due to the “internal contradictions” of communism and because the Soviet Union could no longer afford to keep it’s foot on Eastern Europe’s neck.

    Note: Bluehost has been dog slow for the last 24 hours. If this keeps up tomorrow I’ll try to go through the agonizing technical support process to do something about it…

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    Posted in Communism, Economics, video | 2 Comments »

    LinkSwarm for December 1, 2023

    Friday, December 1st, 2023

    Congratulations! You’ve successfully made it to the last month of 2023! Give yourself a cookie!

    I’ve spent most of today getting my latest book catalog ready to send out, so I’m probably going to have to break this LinkSwarm into two parts. This part: More Biden corrupton evidence, Big Brother wants all your tweets, Jihadi gets stabby in Ireland, and a couple of fairly notable political deaths.

  • “Bank Investigator Flagged ‘Unusual’ Chinese Payments behind $40k Check to Biden, Raised Possibility of Influence Peddling.” Ya think?

    A bank money-laundering investigator expressed serious concerns about a transfer of funds from China that ultimately trickled down to President Biden in the form of a $40,000 check from his brother, James Biden, according to an email obtained by the House

    Biden received a $40,000 personal check from an account shared by his brother, James Biden, and sister-in-law, Sara Biden, in September 2017 — money that was marked as a “loan repayment.” The alleged repayment was sent after funds were filtered from Northern International Capital, a Chinese company affiliated with the Chinese energy firm CEFC, through several accounts related to Hunter Biden and eventually down to the personal account shared by James and Sara Biden.

    Northern International Capital sent $5 million to Hudson West III, a joint venture established by Hunter Biden and CEFC associate Gongwen Dong on August 8.

    On the same day, Hudson West III then sent $400,000 to Owasco, P.C., an entity owned and controlled by Hunter Biden. Six days later, Hunter Biden wired $150,000 to Lion Hall Group, a company owned by James and Sara Biden. Sara Biden withdrew $50,000 in cash from Lion Hall Group on August 28 and then deposited the funds into her and her husband’s personal checking account later that day.

    On September 3, 2017, Sara Biden wrote a check to Joe Biden for $40,000.

    We all know that if Trump did something remotely close to this, he’d already be in prison.

  • “Hamas Violates Cease-Fire, Israel Resumes Airstrikes in Gaza.” This is my shocked face.
  • Big Brother says that all your tweets are belong to us.

    Special Counsel Jack Smith demanded information on Twitter users who liked or retweeted former President Donald Trump’s tweets leading up to the January 6 riot, according to a heavily redacted search warrant and other documents released Monday.

    Smith’s comprehensive search warrant sought the 2024 Republican presidential primary front-runner’s search history, direct messages, and “content of all tweets created, drafted, favorited/liked, or retweeted” by his account from October 2020 to January 2021.

    The special counsel also demanded a list of all devices used to log into Trump’s then-Twitter, now X account, as well as information on users who interacted with the then-president in the months leading up to Jan. 6, 2021, the court filings show.

    Among the information Smith sought were lists of all Twitter users who “favorited or retweeted” Trump’s tweets, “as well as all tweets that include the username associated with the account” in “mentions” or “replies.”

    The special counsel also requested a list of every user Trump “followed, unfollowed, muted, unmuted, blocked, or unblocked” and a list of users who took any of the same actions with Trump’s account during the aforementioned timeframe.

    “There is no benign or reasonable justification for that demand,” wrote former FBI agent/whistleblower Steve Friend on X.

  • “Patrick Wojahn, a well-known LGBTQ activist and friend of key people in the Joe Biden administration, was sentenced to 30 years in prison on Monday. Wojahn pleaded guilty to 140 charges related to child pornography as part of a deal struck with prosecutors.”
  • Henry Kissinger dead at 100.

    Henry Kissinger, the legendary diplomat who played a central role in advising Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford on foreign policy, died at his home in Connecticut late Wednesday at age 100.

    Kissinger was the only person to simultaneously be secretary of state and hold the position of White House national-security adviser. In 1973, he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Le Duc Tho for their work in brokering the 1973 Paris Agreement ending America’s involvement in Vietnam.

    Kissinger was born in Germany in 1923. Three months before Kristallnacht, his family fled, bound for New York City. Kissinger served in the Army during World War II and was assigned to the 84 Infantry Division, voluntarily staying behind at the Battle of the Bulge to reportedly conduct “hazardous counter-intelligence duties” while also “making good use of his German.”

    Kissinger was a key Cold War figure as Secretary of State, and one who doesn’t deserve all of the extensive condemnation he receives (for different reasons) from left and right, nor the hosannas of praise he received from the mainstream media during is heyday. The instantly betrayed peace treaty with North Vietnam (the one he won the Nobel Peace Prize for) was shameful, but LBJ’s incompetence and Washington elite failure of nerve probably doomed South Vietnam before Kissinger even got to the negotiating table. The opening to China was a brilliant move to counter the Soviet Union at the time, and helped usher in a brief period of economic and political liberalization that has now been almost completely undone. SALT1 and the ABM treaties were violated by the Soviet Union before the ink was even dry.

    Kissinger was at his best down deep in the intricacies of face-to-face diplomacy, and played a key role in negotiating details after the Yom Kippur War. Indeed, Kissinger’s goal of stabilizing the Middle East (at least as far as preventing another major Arab-Israeli War) was met.

    Kissinger was ultimately wrong for favoring detente over rollback, but that preference was also emblematic of the Washington foreign policy establishment of the time, and it would take Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 to set America on the right course (and the Soviet Union to the dust-heap of history).

  • Sandra Day O’Connor dead at 93. Eh, she wasn’t the worst Republican appointee to the Supreme Court.
  • Irish riot over illegal alien stabbing spree against children. Rioting is bad, mmkay, but Irish citizens, like those across the rest of the EU, are tired of the enforced consensus for allowing unassimilable Islamic immigrants to cross the border and immediately apply for the welfare rolls.
  • History made as the Irish riot while sober.
  • “Ireland Declares Asking An Immigrant To Stop Stabbing You A Hate Crime.”
  • Not just Ireland. “‘We are here to stab white people’: Teen killed, 16 others wounded in French village after migrant gang reportedly descends on winter ball.”
  • High prices and “lot rot” are doing CarMax in. Not to mention the Biden recession…
  • More of that voting fraud that doesn’t exist. “Virginia Election Official ‘Altered Election Results’ in 2020.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • I just must not be paying attention, because I missed I missed the return of former UK PM David Cameron as foreign secretary a few weeks ago. Eh, you do get a lot of reruns this time of year…
  • “Disney got Microsoft to change its AI image generator because people were making too many savage Pixar-style posters.”
  • Examples, some of which are very not safe for work:

  • Speaking of AI, Sports Illustrated has evidently been caught using it rather than hiring competent sportswriters.
  • Critical Drinker is not too impressed with Napoleon.
  • “Biden Airdrops Humanitarian Resupply Of Hostages Into Gaza.”

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    Posted in Austin, Border Control, Communism, Crime, Democrats, Elections, Foreign Policy, Jihad, Media Watch, Military, Social Justice Warriors, Supreme Court, Waste and Fraud | 3 Comments »

    Was the Yugo As Bad As Critics Said? Yes.

    Saturday, September 16th, 2023

    How bad an idea was it buying a car made in a communist country? Two guys from Donut Media pick up a used Yugo to see if it lives down to its reputation.

  • “Journalists have been crapping on it for decades, but is it really that bad?” Spoiler: Yes.
  • Their Yugo has 20,593 miles on it, and the build quality is obviously crap. “The needle for the speedometer is broken off, which is annoying, and it has a very optimistic high number of 110 miles per hour.”
  • One reason the car has such poor quality is the cost: The Yugo was $4,000 brand new back in the mid-1980s.
  • “This was the first and only Yugoslavian car that made it to the U.S market. It was made by a company called Corvina Zastava, which literally means red flag. You think the people that bought these would have seen the huge red flag.”
  • “In reality the Yugo is a clone of the Fiat 127. Corvina Zastava licensed the design from Fiat and built their version in the motherland.”
  • “One thing that communist Yugoslavia didn’t have access to that Fiat did was purpose-built machinery. And that’s how you get panel gaps.”
  • “Zastava literally spared every expense they possibly could when making this thing, from the metal stamping to the interior.”
  • You really have to watch the entire video to enjoy the diverse panoply of mystery noises and bumps they experience.
  • “Americans ended up hating the Yugo, but here’s the thing: It was never meant for the U.S market. It was a complete fluke that had ever made it to our shores in the first place.”
  • It was strictly meant as a utilitarian vehicle for Yugoslavians.
  • “As Edmunds said when they reviewed an 89 Yugo, ‘the Yugo is slow, low grip and high effort.’ Sure, it’s got a rack and pinion, but the Yugo doesn’t even have power steering. You have to throw your entire body weight into most of your turns.”
  • “This is not good. Dude, having a car change direction depending on what the throttle is doing? I’m gonna give that a fail.”
  • The transmission is awful, the shifter is floppy and the throttle is sticky.
  • It idles at 3,000 RPM. (A Honda Accord idles around 750.)
  • Car entrepreneur Malcolm Bricklin (who formed Subaru of America to import those cars) was looking to import low-cost cars in America. Not in the video is this weird passage in Bricklin’s Wikipedia entry: “Bricklin, senior advisor Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Under-Secretary of State and Yugo board member Lawrence Eagleburger, and Global Motors executives met with Zastava. Bricklin agreed to import the Zastava Koral, marketing it as the Yugo.” Because who knows about cars better than Secretaries of State?
  • “The kids were calling it Yugomania, and people were legitimately psyched about the Yugo.” Having been alive at that time, I can assure you that never happened. The only marketing I remember from the time was a radio spot that focused on the cheapness and the “new car smell” and had an insipid little jingle: “Me and my Yugo/Wherever we go.”
  • “140,000 Yugos were sold in the U.S.”
  • The reason it got imported over here was that Yugoslavia had broken away from the Soviet Union and enjoyed pretty good relations with Reagan’s America, and Fiat had pulled out of the American market, meaning Zastava had no contractual bar to exporting the Fiat clone into the U.S.
  • “The manufacturer claimed it could go 0-60 and 14.3 seconds, which is horrible for even then but some reviewers clocked in at more like 18 seconds.” How long did it take the Donut guys to hit 60? 35.3 seconds. At full throttle.
  • “Carbureted engines can be very reliable, but probably not ones built in a communist country on the brink of collapse.”
  • Their Yugo broke down 10 minutes into filming a mile down the freeway.
  • “Factories in communist countries had terrible working conditions and very little oversight. Consistency also wasn’t their top priority, either. That’s all to say that the high tolerances they had while manufacturing these cars led to some very unreliable parts.”
  • At the time Yugos were being sold, Honda Civics started at $5,800. And the stock Civic engine makes more power than two Yugo engines!
  • “Yugo did not make a good car.”

    • Sales peaked at 48,812 in the U.S. in 1987, but had declined to 3,092 in 1991, when the Yugoslavian Civil War got underway, then less than half that in 1992, when UN sanctions came down, and that was the end of the Yugo in America. Supposedly later Yugos were somewhat more reliable.

    The lesson here: Never buy a car made in a communist country, unless you’re building a Museum of Failure.

    As a bonus, enjoy this hilariously dishonest Yugo TV ad.

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    Posted in Communism, video | 25 Comments »

    German Dam On Ukraine Aid Finally Bursts

    Tuesday, January 17th, 2023

    For most of last year there was a recurring pattern for German military aid to Ukraine:

  • The German government would talk about sending various types of modern military equipment to Germany.
  • The German government would actually send Ukraine numerous pallets of Diddly and Squat.

    • I almost did a post on “What’s holding up the German weapons pipeline?” Now, thanks to Peter Zeihan, we know that clog has a name: Christine Lambrecht, the German Defense Minister, who just resigned.

    Takeaways:

  • Lambrecht is not somebody with defense experience. She’s a politico. She has been up relatively high in Germany’s Social Democratic Party, which is a center-left party for decades. So it’s not that she’s a nobody, it’s just she doesn’t have a lot of skills that are appropriate to her current portfolio. This has not been a problem. In fact her specific, deliberate, intentional incompetence and defense matters in many ways was seen by the SPD as a plus.

    Until the Russo-Ukrainian War.

  • “The general position in Germany as a whole, and specifically in the SPD, was that the Defense Ministry itself is unnecessary, that in the aftermath of the Cold War, the threat to Germany is gone.”
  • Plus the deep-seated problem of all Germany’s Historical Unpleasantness.

  • So for the Germans, the post-cold war environment in Europe has been the best it’s ever been. You’re talking about a golden age, because NATO has provided defense, but all the countries that border Germany are either neutral, like Switzerland, or are members of NATO, which is basically everyone else. And in that sort of environment, the Germans can kind of dither and become pacifist socialists. Which, to be perfectly blunt, looking at the long stretch of German history is much, much, much, much, much, much better for everyone than the alternative.

  • “Lambrecht was put in charge of the Defense Ministry to basically continue slowly sliding it into functional oblivion.”
  • “That doesn’t work in an environment where the Russians are back on the warpath, and the Germans need to be starting thinking not just about 20th century military strategy, but 19th century military strategy, and Lambrecht was completely unprepared, professionally, personally and ideologically for this sort of shift.”
  • Indeed, she was a poor fit for a Germany doubling its defense budget. Plus, she hates the U.S.
  • “The Russians are not just mobilizing, but mobilizing in force. They’re finally beginning significant industrial upgrades. They’re finally starting to churn out missiles and ammo and tanks and numbers. And they are finally doing a full-scale mobilization. This isn’t the 300,000 that they did a few weeks ago. We’re talking about at least another half a million men likely being in the theater within a very few number of months.” Not sure where he’s getting this info, only see references to Russia considering it. (Unless my speculation that Russia was carrying out a full mobilization under the guise of a partial mobilization was on the mark.)
  • Germany may now finally move on approving other countries transferring Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. “There are a number of countries, specifically Denmark and Poland, who have been pressuring the Germans in order to allow them to take these exported tanks and then send them on to Ukraine. That requires Berlin’s approval, and Berlin at this point has been demurring. But the coalition now involves almost every single country that the Germans have sold the Leopards, to and so all of a sudden with Lambrecht gone, all of this is in motion, and I think we’re going to see the Germans relent.”

    • Faster, please.

    Finally, all of this is just an excuse to embedded this classic Norm Macdonald bit about Germany. “I’m not sure if any of you are history buffs…”

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military, video | 13 Comments »

    George Shultz, RIP

    Monday, February 8th, 2021

    George Shultz, who served as Secretary of State for Ronald Reagan for six years, died yesterday at age 100.

    Reagan assumed the presidency at a time when the existence of the Soviet Union and its domination of eastern Europe was regarded as an immutable fact of world politics. Taking office after Alexander Haig, Shultz helped implement Reagan’s vision of containing and rolling back communism across the globe. From supporting Solidarity in Poland, to backing anticommunist rebels in Reagan Doctrine countries like Afghanistan and Nicaragua, to the liberation of Grenada, to deploying intermediate nuclear missiles in Europe, to a hundred other policies, the Reagan Administration pressed Soviet communism in ways that would eventually force not only the liberation of Eastern Europe, but the demise of the Soviet Union itself. Shultz would play a key role in keeping American allies onboard with the program, and eventually in negotiations with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that would lead to the end of the Cold War.

    Compared to Haig, Shultz was a low-key, drama-free professional who skillfully kept a wide variety of western governments broadly aligned with American goals, and for that he deserves credit. That he was wrong about much outside the Cold War (the gold standard, carbon taxes, and Brexit, to name but three) should not take away from his central achievement. With James A. Baker III, Secretary of State under Bush 41 (who largely followed the policies laid down under Reagan), Shultz presided over the most successful period of post-World War II diplomacy in American history, and his achievements were far more lasting than those under flashier Secretaries of State like Henry Kissinger or Colin Powell.

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    Posted in Communism, Foreign Policy | No Comments »

    The Battle of 73 Easting

    Wednesday, February 26th, 2020

    Twenty nine years ago today, on February 26, 1991, units of the American Second Armored Cavalry Regiment engaged the armor of the Iraqi Republican Guard Tawakalna Division in the Battle of 73 Easting.

    The furious action lasted twenty-three minutes. The troop stopped when there was nothing left to shoot. Sporadic contact ranged from nuisance machine gun fire to one company-sized counterattack of T-72s and BMP armored personnel carriers. Tanks and Bradleys destroyed enemy vehicles at long range from the dominating position on the ridge. Three Bradleys from first platoon, led by Lieutenant Michael Petschek, encountered and destroyed four T-72s as they moved north to reestablish physical contact with G Troop. Medics treated and evacuated enemy wounded. Crews cross-leveled ammunition. Mortars suppressed enemy infantry further to the east as our fire support officer, Lieutenant Dan Davis, called in devastating artillery strikes on enemy logistical bases. Scouts and a team under the control of First Sergeant Bill Virrill cleared bunkers using grenades and satchel charges, and then led a much-needed resupply convoy through minefields to our rear. A psychological operations team broadcasted surrender appeals forward of the troop and the troop took the first of hundreds of prisoners including the brigade commander. Soldiers segregated, searched, and secured prisoners through the night. Many prisoners cried because they had not expected such humane treatment; their officers had told them that we would execute them. The prisoners were incredulous when our soldiers returned their wallets without taking any of the money that they had looted from Kuwait City. Just after 2200, 1ID conducted a forward passage of lines in Third Squadron’s area of operation to our south.

    The morning after the battle, soldiers were exhausted. Many of the approximately fifty T-72s, twenty-five armored personnel carriers, forty trucks and numerous other vehicles that the troop destroyed were still smoldering. Our troop had taken no casualties.

    Here’s a video on the battle:

    In addition to being an overwhelming victory, and part of the larger overwhelming victory of Desert Storm, the Battle of 73 Easting was important for several other reasons.

    For one thing, it was the largest tank battle between American- and Soviet-constructed armor since Israeli M-60 Patton tanks faced off against Egyptian T-62s in Sinai campaign of the Yom Kippur War in 1973. All throughout the 70s and early 1980s, various media outlets talked about how much better Soviet military equipment was than American equipment. (I remember a 60 Minutes episode that talked about Soviet equipment being better “all across the board.”) And Soviet equipment was better—on paper, with thicker armor, higher top speeds, etc. And then 73 Easting happened, and M1A1s wiped the floor with T-72s. A lot of that was American troops being much better trained and led than Iraqi troops. But the Republican Guard was the best the Iraq army had, and on paper the T-72 was a match for the M1A1s. In actual combat, the T-72s started blowing up before they realized the Americans were engaging (and destroying) Iraqi armor at the extreme range of the American computerized fire control systems. Soviet armor still used reticules, where the gunner had to manually calculate distance and windage to put shots on target.

    In Vietnam, early computerized combat technology was clunky and unreliable. By the time of Desert Storm, the furious onrush of Moore’s Law had rendered technology smaller, more compact, more reliable, and more user-friendly. By pursuing what Jerry Pournelle called the strategy of technology, the United States was producing weapons that were qualitatively superior to those of its communist foes. That technological gap (especially in the form of SDI) was one of the drivers for the end of the Cold War, and it was on full display in Desert Storm. The Soviet Union itself would dissolve later the same year.

    The Battle of 73 Easting was also important because it become the most accurately simulated battle ever:

    The Battle of 73 Easting has become the single most accurately recorded combat engagement in human history. Army historians and simulation modelers thoroughly interviewed the American participants, and paced the battlefield meter by meter. They came up with a fully interactive, network-capable digital replica of the events at 73 Easting, right down to the last TOW missile and .50-caliber pockmark. Military historians and armchair strategists can now fly over the virtual battlefield in the “stealth vehicle,” the so-called “SIMNET flying carpet,” viewing the 3-D virtual landscape from any angle during any moment of the battle. They can even change the parameters – give the Iraqis infrared targeting scopes, for instance, which they lacked at the time, and which made them sitting ducks for high-tech American M1s charging out of blowing sand. The whole triumphal blitzkrieg can be pondered over repeatedly (gloated over even), in perfect scratch-free digital fidelity. It’s the spirit of Southwest Asia in a digital nutshell. In terms of American military morale, it’s like a ’90s CD remix of some ’60s oldie, rescued from warping vinyl and remade closer to the heart’s desire.

    Like Agincourt or Amiens, the Battle of 73 Easting heralded the arrival of a new type of technology to the battlefield, one that every army in the world henceforth need to take into account.

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    Posted in Military, video | 1 Comment »

    Mesta 50

    Sunday, December 15th, 2019

    This is the end of an exceptionally busy week for me, so enjoy a little light posting with this look at the largest American forging press ever built, the Mesta 50:

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    Posted in Military, video | 1 Comment »

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