If it seems like we’ve already covered this topic this year, it’s because we did. But there seems to be more evidence now, with Russian tanks reported as non-existent on many fronts.
Reporting from Ukraine:
Here, the Russian armed forces ran out of tanks after months of reckless frontal assaults against fortified Ukrainian positions. The multi-layer Ukrainian defense destroyed thousands of Russian armored vehicles and depleted even the Soviet stockpiles that many thought were endless.
On July 8, the Ukrainian General Staff reported an extraordinary battlefield statistic: zero Russian tank losses. Rather than indicating a successful tactical shift, this unprecedented figure underscores Russia’s critical shortage of operational tanks. Russian units simply no longer possess enough tanks to risk losing them in frequent frontal assaults. Mechanized attacks, once the hallmark of Russian offensives, have nearly disappeared, replaced entirely by small-unit infantry actions and increasingly improvised tactics.
Months of relentless, suicidal assaults have decimated Russia’s armored capabilities. Especially in Donetsk and Toretsk, hundreds of Russian tanks have fallen easy prey to Ukrainian FPV drones, anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, and extensive minefields. This staggering attrition has far outpaced Russia’s capacity to replace battlefield losses.
Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s main tank producer, can currently manufacture no more than 20 to 25 new T-90M tanks monthly. Even though Russia increased production slightly from about 17 tanks per month in 2023 to roughly 25 by 2025, this limited output remains negligible compared to ongoing combat losses. Additionally, Russia has historically relied heavily on refurbishing Soviet-era models from storage, such as T-72’s, T-80’s, and even older T-62’s and T-55’s. Yet refurbishment capabilities have dramatically declined as stocks of viable stored tanks dwindle. Previously able to restore about 80 to 100 tanks per month in 2023, this number has dropped significantly to approximately 30 to 35 per month by early 2025. As a result, Russian frontline units rarely deploy tanks unless it involves an isolated, high-priority operation.
I treat Reporting from Ukraine assertions with a grain of salt. But The Military Show is also reporting that Russian tank participation in assaults has all but disappeared:
Covert Cabal, whose tank counting videos we’ve featured over the years, says that many formerly active bases now appear to be “ghost towns.” There are still some equipment at bases near NATO countries, but the Moscow military district appears pretty bare, which, given it’s historic role at discouraging coups, is pretty unusual.
If Russia is essentially out of tanks and other armored vehicles to send to Ukraine, it’s hard to see how his grinding meatwave assaults can eke out enough territorial gains to continue advancing, especially with more U.S. weapons flowing to Ukraine.
Maybe Putin should have taken trump up on his negotiations offer. Without armor, Russia may end up losing all its ill-gotten territorial gains in the next year…
Tags: Covert Cabal, David Axe, logistics, Military, Reporting from Ukraine, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, T-90, tanks, The Military Show, Toretsk, Ukraine, Uralvagonzavod, video
Australia delivered 49 refurbished M1A1 tanks to Ukraine on Friday. These appear to be the only operational tanks now in AFU inventory. The Russians have destroyed all the other AFU tanks, including Abrams, Leopards, Challengers, and legacy Soviet tanks.
So both sides are fighting as infantry now.
…or that the latent dome of lethality observed early in the war has now coalesced into manifest lethality to all AFVs on the front lines, at all times. Tanks had enough difficulty dealing with mines prior to this conflict, but now the mines have wings, are everywhere, and are coming after your heat-plume from every direction except the front.
The Ukrainians, lead by OD Napoleon, claim the Russians are assembling and concealing a force of 50,000 men, with all their best equipment, for a lightning strike on Kiev. The Ukrainians are getting very antsy about the thinning of their defensive lines as their cannibals are unable to replace manpower losses.
This is probably delusional, or some kind of attempt to panic NATO decisionmakers.
Would this be the same news sources that have been telling me for several years that the Russians are running out of artillery shells, aircraft, missiles, fab glide bombs, manpower and anything else a propagandist can speculate about?
India had placed an order for 2,000 T-90 tanks to replace its aging T-72s. At current production levels, Russia would require nearly a decade to fulfill this request. Accordingly, India pivoted to France to supply its needs.
France is a NATO member, so the loss of a Russian tank contract brings India more closely into alignment with the West’s military posture. Also, this financial windfall will enable France to increase military aid to Ukraine.
Putin is growing increasingly isolated as his Special Military Operation founders on the stubborn resistance of Ukrainian fighters and the withdrawal of trading partners India and China under the threat of secondary sanctions
So carrying on down the devolution of equipment seen in this war, given armor was the response to machine gun, will the water cooled machine gun make a comeback to more effectively counter meat-wave infantry attacks? Maybe in CROWS-style remote mounts to preserve the operators against the ubiquitous FPV drones?
Or are the operators redundant now – just put an AI infrared motion-keying camera on the trigger?
“Accordingly, India pivoted to France to supply its needs.”
There is no evidence that the Indians have contracted with Nexter for any Leclerc tanks. The French are touting the possibility, but India RFIed at least 12 different tank manufacturers in 2022 (including Nexter and UVZ), but no acquisition decision has been made. The French are performing typical military goods sales puffery here.
It should also be noted that Nexter has not made any Leclercs since 2007. They may or may not be able to resume production, but it is unlikely that they would be able to meet the Indian 1,770 tanks delivery deadline of 2030. Those 2007 tanks sold for over $ 16 million apiece, so you can figure new Leclerc examples would sell for upwards of $ 40 million, accounting for 18 years of blistering Euro inflation. The Indians buy from the Russians because they are very price sensitive.
The Battalion Tactical Group provides the basis of Russian ground forces. The baseline organisation of the BTG is:
three mechanised infantry companies
one tank company
one anti-tank company
two (sometimes three) tube artillery batteries
one MRL battery
two air defence batteries
It is unlikely that a single solitary BTG engaged in frontline activities is operating at full strength. The much vaunted World’s Second Army is reduced to mule transport.
Putin cannot rebuild his military because the Russian industrial base is largely incapable of replicating the tapered roller bearings produced by SKF (Swedish Ball Bearing Factory) or the French-made Leclerc’s tank sight.
In addition, “Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite.”
This from the Moscow Times: “Despite official promises to reduce dependence on Western suppliers, the country remains far from achieving meaningful production independence, warned Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of aircraft parts manufacturer Aerocomposite.
“The industry’s main weaknesses are already known,” Gaydansky said in comments reported by Russian media. “Domestic producers aren’t even close to meeting the needs of the sector… the electronic component base is a significant area of concern.”
The supply of NATO spec weaponry to Ukraine is a force multiplier that will put Russian forces at a growing disadvantage. In the end, Putin will be forced to accept a humiliating defeat.
“Putin cannot rebuild his military because the Russian industrial base is largely incapable of replicating the tapered roller bearings produced by SKF (Swedish Ball Bearing Factory) or the French-made Leclerc’s tank sight.”
Russian Bearing Co. Ltd.; Uborevicha Street, Building 5a in Vladivostok will provide all the “SKF Type” roller bearings of whatever actual type you might want. You can call them at +7-924-7295002 during Vladivostok time business hours (UTC+10).
The Russians have about 30 enterprises which make tapered roller bearings from small to very large. They export about $ 410 million worth annually. A little history for you: these bearings date back to Century XIX and Henry Timken, not the Swedes, developed them. You will find WW II vintage Soviet tanks such as the T-34 fully equipped with tapered roller bearings.
The JSC VOMZ PNM-T tank sight is produced entirely within Russia and has been the standard sight on the e T-72B3, T-80BVM and T-90MS tanks since April 2023. It is fully the equal of the Thales Optronics tank sight and replaces the SOSNA-U sight, which was Russian made but did have a Thales thermal imaging viewer.
The Russians have now mastered thermal imaging viewer production to the extent their Gortenzia FPV and UAV400T drones are equipped with Astron Optical-Mechanical Design Bureau thermal imagers. This is a major target identification advantage over the Ukrainians, who do not have any drones equipped with thermal imagers.
“The much vaunted World’s Second Army is reduced to mule transport.”
You have a very short memory. We covered this two months ago. The Russians do not use mules or donkeys (as you have previously alleged). They use Panje horses, a pack animal uniquely suited to the harsh climate of the steppe. They do not eat Panje horses, as you previously alleged, either.
Panje horses were the Red Army’s savior during the Battle of Moscow and the Germans quickly adopted the Polish equivalent breed afterwards. Not quickly enough to save their starving troops in 1941, however.
“….will the water cooled machine gun make a comeback to more effectively counter meat-wave infantry attacks?”
From Task & Purpose:
How the World War I Maxim machine gun became a weapon of choice in Ukraine – If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.
By Nicholas Slayton on March 10, 2023
The problem for Ukraine’s Maxim gunners is the same one which defeated the Imperial German Army’s machine gun corps: artillery.
All those Russian “meat-wave infantry attacks” are preceded by saturation artillery barrages. When the Russian troops advance to the Ukrainian machine gun positions, all that’s left is meat. Why the Russians are killing Ukrainians 50:1 on the battlefield.
Doubt me? The July corpse exchange was just completed. The Russians delivered exactly 1,000 fallen Ukrainian soldiers and received 19 dead Russian soldiers in return. The Russians still have another 7,500 dead Ukrainian soldiers on ice which the Ukrainians won’t accept.