This post has been a long time coming.
When Russia launched its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine in February of 2022, Russia was thought to have as many as 10,000 tanks in it’s inventory, including vast numbers of older Soviet-era armor.
Covert Cabal has been regularly tracking the depletion of Russian tank reserves using satellite imagery. Four months ago, they put out a video counting tanks remaining in Russian depots:
Their initial satellite images showed a total of 6107 tanks in all depots in 2021, whereas their most recent count only shows 3,345. However: “Virtually every one of these tanks left is in absolutely horrible condition. Before the war it was probably closer to 50/50, but those good ones since have been the ones that were grabbed from storage first.” They also note that the initial number was almost certainly higher than the ones they could count, as they were probably better vehicles stored in garages. They estimate that pretty much all of those are now gone.
By at least one estimate, those 10,000 theoretical tanks have already been destroyed.
“Ukraine’s general staff claims that 9,760 Russian tanks have been destroyed.” Oryx says 3,690 have been destroyed, but those are only the ones they can visually confirm. And some of those tanks are very old indeed. (Russia even deployed World War II howitzer earlier this year. )
“The situation has gotten so bad as of January 2025 that many resort to attacking in any vehicle on which they can get their hands.”
Which brings us to today’s Suchomimus video of a recent Russian assault:
“Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to break through using 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars.”
If Russia is launching assaults without a single military vehicle to provide firepower or protection, that suggests that they’re nearing the end of their stockpiles of tanks and BMPs. Sending such pathetically equipped troops into the teeth of drone-armed Ukrainians is tantamount to admitting their meatwave attacks are merely suicide missions.
This suggests that all usable Soviet-era tank stockpiles have finally been depleted.
Tags: Covert Cabal, logistics, Military, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Soviet Union, Suchomimus, tanks, Ukraine, video
The Russian-Ukrainian line of contact is in the midst of Rasputitsa, the mud season. The spring rains arrived late and the mud may well impede tank movements into June.
Even the much lighter Russian tanks and IFVs cannot avoid bogging down, so the Russians have been exploring other mobility options. Dirt bikes seem to be the best option in the opinion of Russian commanders. They have generally performed well in surprise attacks.
The Ukrainian forces have had no lightweight alternatives to their wallowing NATO pigs, so they are stuck in position and starving for supplies. The Japanese just supplied AFU with a few 5 ton Morooka PC-065B rubber tracked mud bog vehicles which should relieve the most acute Ukrainian supply situations, at least until they get droned.
Russian tank output has been constrained by limited supplies of SOSNA-U electrooptic sights, which use an embargoed Thales thermal imaging sensor. The Russian firm Temp Avia in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast has developed a fully domestic alternative, the PNM-T, but their Arzamas production facility was subjected to almost daily drone strikes over the last year. It appears the Russians have moved PNM-T production to an undisclosed location and Russian tank output has now recovered.
“Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to break through using 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars.”
The mujahideen of Afghanistan gave a good account of themselves against the Russians, converting Toyota Hi-Lux trucks into technicals that combined firepower with rugged, all-terrain capabilities. Putting a “cope cage” on a Lada seems like a dubious attempt to replicate that feat.
The Afghans could take advantage of mountainous terrain from which to launch their attacks but there is nowhere to hide for advancing Russian contract soldiers and the drones know well beforehand what the line of advance will look like.
Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes was frequently belittled for his “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense; Gerasimov cannot even manage three yards in a sea of mud.
Tank production is now at a virtual standstill. One unit each day seems to be all that Russia can reasonably manage. The country is on a wartime footing and any attempt to direct more resources to the military comes at the expense of of civilian consumer needs.
When Muscovites queue up in food lines to sort through picked over food, the remembrance of Soviet GUM stores will forcibly be brought back to mind. If living conditions today are not significantly better than they were in 1991, what was the point of so much suffering and sacrifice? And if food shortages emerge in Moscow, what will frontline rations look like?
Putin is in a tight spot already and falling oil revenues will blow a huge hole in budgetary expectations. Rapidly rising food prices, severely constrained military production capabilities and declining export earnings all signal that the wartime economy is overheating and threatens to stall out.
Putin should ask for a truce but this would be an admission of defeat. And so the destruction of Russia continues apace.
As Ukraine totters on the brink of total defeat, their propaganda mills are really heating up trying to put lipstick on a pig. We’ll be hearing a lot of stories like this, trying to squeeze more money and equipment out of NATO and the US, so the oligarchs and military commanders can grab their last round of graft before they head for their villas in other countries. (Ukrainian generals reportedly lost 6 mansions in the LA fires.)
Reality is not something the West wants to hear about.
“Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to break through using 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars.”
It is always difficult to discern the truth from a Suchomimus video because he is a serial liar, but this appears to be an escorted Russian resupply effort going through Indian Country which got caught by a cluster munition.
AutoVAZ makes a 4×4 version of the Lada called the Niva which only weighs 2,150 pounds and it has an excellent reputation for getting through Russian mud. The AFU has been using the 50% heavier Mitsubishi Type 73 light tactical vehicle in the same role, but without cope cages.
Japan promised Ukraine 101 Morooka PC-065B rubber tracked vehicles at the end of last year. The first one was seen in use by an AFU engineering unit near Kherson, just before it got droned. Resupply is a very dangerous activity in this war.
“Tank production is now at a virtual standstill. One unit each day seems to be all that Russia can reasonably manage. The country is on a wartime footing and any attempt to direct more resources to the military comes at the expense of of civilian consumer needs.”
Even before relocation of Temp Avia PNM-T production, NATO stated la month ago that Russia was producing 1,500 tanks per annum. That is four per day, a number in accord with the storage drawdowns noted in the first video. Now that Omsktransmash is fully operational, that number should increase sharply.
It won’t matter if Russia runs out of tanks if they manage to win.
European motorcycle (and auto production) has collapsed so it would be easy enough for Europe to outfit Ukraine with mud capable motorcycles. But they dont.
Running out of tanks is like retiring your cavalry horses. They were obsolete.
we’re gonna have to rename the Pyrrhic victory to the putin victory at this rate, regardless of outcome
“It is always difficult to discern the truth from a Suchomimus video because he is a serial liar,..”
Pot, meet kettle.
Russia is a lost cause because Russians are hell-bent on mass suicide. The massive losses in WWI and WWII in concert with Stalin’s purges all point to the self-destructive nature of Russian society.
Russia…”is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma: The key is Russian national interests.”
The national interest of Russia is death and destruction. It is a rogue state, distrusted by Western and Eastern powers alike. The Warsaw Pact members eagerly seized on the first opportunity to break free from The Bear’s embrace because they were eager to live free and prosper.
But the living-dead Russian Federation Vampire state cannot function without a continuous infusion of fresh blood: today Ukraine, tomorrow the Baltics. May God grant Russians their corporate Death Wish so that the their neighbors may live in peace for a change.
[…] Is Russia Running Out Of Tanks? “Their initial satellite images showed a total of 6107 tanks in all depots in 2021, whereas […]
Russia is grinding itself into dust.
“(Ukrainian generals reportedly lost 6 mansions in the LA fires.)“
So yer sayin’ that NAZI Joo-kranianz skimmed off all the money that was designated for armaments…and they remain capable of kicking your malnourished, lice infested bolsheviki ass anyway?
“So yer sayin’ that NAZI Joo-kranianz skimmed off all the money that was designated for armaments…and they remain capable of kicking your malnourished, lice infested bolsheviki ass anyway?”
U.S. DoD Inspector General Robert Storch, a Drooling Joe appointee, reported in November that “corruption continues to complicate Ukraine’s efforts to achieve its EU and NATO aspirations,” particularly due to multiple scandals in the Defense Ministry.
U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz says “Ukraine was one of, and is one of, the most corrupt countries in the world.” NSA Waltz also denounced Drooling Joe’s administration for failing to oversee Kiev’s spending the financial aid.
Why do you think the Russians are grinding up the AFU?
“Running out of tanks is like retiring your cavalry horses. They were obsolete.”
HAMAS may hope otherwise but I don’t expect the IDF to retire the Merkava main battle tank, backbone of their ground forces and mainstay of the
Armored Corps, any time soon.
This isn’t likely. This assumes Russia’s neighbors want peace.
If Russia comes out looking weak enough, Poland and Finland will re-discover recent history (past 200y) … and decide the time is ripe to re-settle some scores. Both countries have former territorial claims within current-day Russia.
Ukraine, itself, might decide to expand, too.