There are multiple rumors floating around about Schrodinger’s Ayatollah, who still hasn’t been seen in public since the initial strikes. The first is that he shuffled off his mortal aba in the airstrike that killed his father Ayatollah Senior and most of Iran’s ruling council.
“We know the new so-called not-so-supreme leader is wounded and likely disfigured,” Hegseth said in a press briefing on Friday, March 13. “He put out a statement yesterday. A weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video. It was a written statement.”
“Iran has plenty of cameras and plenty of voice recorders,” Hegseth added. “Why a written statement? I think you know why. … He’s scared, he’s injured, he’s on the run and he lacks legitimacy.”
Here’s the obligatory Simon Whistler video to sort through the possibilities.
“According to Iranian leaders, he’s alive and well. According to US defense leaders, he’s quote wounded and likefully disfigured. And as regional experts and conflict observers have recently pointed out, he might already be in a coma or even dead.”
“One week after he was elevated to rule Iran, the younger Khamenei hasn’t been seen and he hasn’t been heard, raising the distinct possibility that the world and even the people of Iran don’t actually know who’s in charge of Iran’s war effort.”
“A longtime adviser and money man who had assisted his father for decades, Motjaba was already rumored not to be on his father’s short list for succession even before the current war with the US and Israel began. Instead, Motjaba was an avatar of some of Iran’s most hardline fighting factions. The internal repression forces known as the Basij, which Motjaba essentially controlled himself, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, where he’d been close with the deceased General Qasem Soleimani and his successor Hossein Taeb.”
“Motjaba was widely understood to be much more extreme than his father, even in his open support of Iranian nuclear weapons, which his father had always publicly denied pursuing. Motjaba had spent years in Iran building a loyal support network, angling to take over despite his father’s wishes, and along with his father, Motjaba’s wife, his mother, and one of his sons were all reported killed in the early waves of US and Israeli bombing.”
“Claims from Israeli intelligence as well as anonymous Iranian officials speaking to the global press confirmed that Motjaba is in significantly worse shape than the Iranian regime will acknowledge.”
Trump: “I hear he’s not alive.”
Back to Whistler: “We can observe a convergence of analysis from the US, Israel, purported Iranian insiders, Iranian opposition sources, and others on the out-abouts. What’s probably true here? While it’s more likely than not that Motjaba Khamenei is alive in some form, most accounts on his whereabouts and status have converged on the idea that he’s in bad shape, isolated, and even if he is alert, he probably isn’t the person calling the shots in Iran on a daily basis.”
“If Motjaba isn’t calling the shots, then who is?”
“The answer may be a facet of the groups that helped elevate him to the leadership. The Revolutionary Guard, the Basij Paramilitaries, and Iran’s hardline factions.”
“It’s not clear that those leaders can exert direct control over the Iranian military. Iran has already shifted into a wartime strategy called mosaic defense. An approach that’s meant to make the country more resilient to decapitation strikes and command and control destruction than it otherwise would be.”
“In a mosaic defense, Iran essentially fractures into decentralized individually controlled military units, each given control of certain regions, certain paramilitary allies, and certain warfighting assets. Those units have their broad instructions from the top. But after that, they’re essentially on their own.” A mosaic defense can be effective in running a decentralized insurgency, but is a lot less useful when you’re trying to defend your country against two of the world’s most powerful and technologically sophisticated militaries.
“On the one hand, that’s helpful in ensuring that Iran’s military can still function when people like the Supreme Leader are killed. But on the other hand, it’s very difficult to reign those mosaic forces back in once they’ve been given the order to decentralize.”
“Already, Iranian leaders have suggested that some of Iran’s actions, like the pervasive strikes on Gulf Energy infrastructure, may have been due to mosaic forces making their own decisions about how to handle the war. With a hardline supreme leader legitimizing the commands and the power of Iran’s revolutionary guard and Basij, there’s a real risk that those forces will only become less responsive to more moderate civil leaders.” Yeah, “moderate civil leaders” isn’t exactly what anyone thinks of when it comes to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Kharg Islands/Marines/Hormuz stuff snipped.
I think the Babylon Bee nicely captures the consensus about Mojtaba: “‘It’s Just A Flesh Wound!‘ Says Legless Torso Of Iranian Ayatollah.”
But beyond dead, coma, and crippled, another possibility about MiniMe Khamenei has recently surfaced, namely that he might be a prancing Nancy Boy.
President Trump was stunned to learn last week that US intelligence indicates new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay — and that his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, feared his suitability to rule the Islamic Republic for that reason, The Post can reveal.
Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources.
Others in the room also found it “hilarious” and joined the president’s reaction, while one senior intelligence official “has not stopped laughing about it for days,” said one person familiar with the briefing.
The shocking claim was described to The Post by two intelligence community officials and a third person close to the White House.
Of course, all this could merely be scurrilous rumor or psychological warfare aimed at the regime. The idea that Mojtaba enjoys having burly men pound his poop-chute would obviously radically reduce his support among the notoriously anti-gay power circles of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Supreme Leader doing the same things that get others hung from cranes might make regime figures less likely to follow his orders, especially if they start suspecting they’re being issued from inside a strapless lavender evening gown.
There is another possibility: Like Liberace and Oscar Wilde, Mojtaba Khamenei could be both gay and dead…
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“In a mosaic defense, Iran essentially fractures into decentralized individually controlled military units, each given control of certain regions, certain paramilitary allies, and certain warfighting assets”
Donald Rumsfeld referred to Saddam loyalists as “dead enders”. They proved stubbornly resistant to surrender.
Iran is different: In Iraq, US forces were viewed as an occupation army and represented a force alien to Iraqi culture: in Iran, a large segment of the population views the IRGC/Basij as being the alien element in their culture.
This lack of sympathy will make a guerrilla movement hard to support beyond its immediate area of control. Pinning them down through relentless drone strikes will erode their inner cohesion and lead to demoralization. If the Iranian military can be persuaded to turn against the security forces, resistance will be short-lived.
In “Casablanca”, Rick Blain asks Captain Renault a pointed question: “Louis, are you pro-Vichy or Free French?” We discover Captain Renault’s loyalties at the movie’s end.
Donald Trump urgently needs to present a similar question to Iran’s military leadership. It is futile to expect surrender from the IRGC commanders.They know prison or execution await them in a free Iran.
“Donald Trump urgently needs to present a similar question to Iran’s military leadership. It is futile to expect surrender from the IRGC commanders.They know prison or execution await them in a free Iran.”
The appointment of Kid Khamenei, a man of little clerical distinction, as rahbar was clear evidence of a coup d’état by the IRGC. Although smaller in head count than Artesh, the IRGC has three times the budget and is the real power in Iran at all levels. Artesh cannot challenge IRGC, nor can they deliver a peace agreement.
“Artesh cannot challenge IRGC, nor can they deliver a peace agreement.”
The IRGC cannot maintain command control of its dispersed elements. They now more closely resemble a guerrilla force than a Praetorian Guard.
Imagine an auction for the “Peacock Throne”. Who would bid on it? The titular head of state would face the threat of assassination daily.
Who recognizes the IRCG’s authority to appoint a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? This is for the Assembly of Experts to determine and Motjaba Khamenei lacks the clerical credentials to succeed his father. As the above thread asks, Is he dead or is he as good as dead because of evidence indicating he is homosexual?
Who controls the Basij? Their commander, Gholamreza Soleimani, has been involuntary retired from service. National Security head Larijani, joins him in retirement.
President Masoud Pezeshkian could offer surrender terms but has no independent authority.
A military revolt against the remaining regime elements would face little effective resistance and be widely supported by the populace. If the IRGC can effect a coup against the clerics, the military can legitimately defend the status quo ante.
In a conventional surrender, the military lays down its arms; in this case, they would take them up only to lay them down after the IRGC’s uprising has been put down.
“Who recognizes the IRCG’s authority to appoint a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?”
Mao Zedong: “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”
“Kinda hard to fund the troops when the banking services are off-line, Comrade.”
IRGC has the best troops, weapons, and training, all from their past funding advantage. They are fanatics and immediate financial considerations mean little to fanatics. The also have large stashes of currency for precisely this situation. It escaped your feeble attention that Artesh will be experiencing the very same current financial bind, and their troops are far less motivated ideologically.
It has yet to be established that IRGC is experiencing any C3I issues. Note that they swiftly replaced the recently departed Hossein Salami, then the departed Mohammad Pakpour, with Vahid Shah Cheraghi. Watch him and Mohsen Rezaee Mirgha’ed. They seem to be running the country since Larijani reached room temperature yesterday. Including Artesh and Basij.
I have told you before that Iran has an excellent military education system. The IRGC University of Command and Staff assures that they have a deep bench of substitute players. They are smart enough to use motorcycle couriers to convey commands and intelligence to the outposts.
Tehran’s mullahs have taken refuge in the city of Mashhad , meaning the place of martyrdom. Mayhaps they plan to exit this life iin a modern day reenactment of Masada n hopes of finding lasting bliss in the embrace of their promised virgins.
“Tehran’s mullahs have taken refuge in the city of Mashhad , meaning the place of martyrdom. Mayhaps they plan to exit this life iin a modern day reenactment of Masada n hopes of finding lasting bliss in the embrace of their promised virgins.”
Telenko, as always, is wrong. The Iranian leadership, including the clerics, are holed up in hospitals and schools. Only going outside dressed in burqas.
“As the world watches the Iranian regime scramble to find a spider hole in the face of escalating regional pressure, a stark reality has emerged: former President Joe Biden’s catastrophic decision to abandon Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan has left the United States with its hands tied behind its back.
“Reports are now flooding in that the Iranian ‘top brass,’ sensing the walls closing in on Tehran, have decamped to the distant city of Mashhad.
This isn’t just a change of scenery; it’s a strategic retreat. As was noted on X, the regime has abandoned the capital for a site “as far away from US bases and carriers—and from Israel—as you can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan.”
“Mashhad, now identified as the site where many say regime officials are conducting state TV interviews from a branch of the Foreign Ministry, sits roughly 575 miles from Bagram Airbase. In military terms, that is a stone’s throw for a modern air force. But thanks to the Biden administration’s 2021 surrender of that strategic crown jewel, that distance might as well be a million miles.
“U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz summed up the frustration of the military community in five words: ‘If only we still had Bagram Airbase…'”
“Then the IRGC is nearly powerless, having been reduced to 10% of its pre-war missile inventory.”
Time to get out your ESL dictionary and learn the difference between “gun” and “missile”.
Seriously, IRGC and a number of observers said yesterday that IRGC has only launched 7% of their missile inventory. They made no mention of drone inventories, but showed undated photos of underground halls chock full of Shaheed 136’s.
“In a mosaic defense, Iran essentially fractures into decentralized individually controlled military units, each given control of certain regions, certain paramilitary allies, and certain warfighting assets”
Donald Rumsfeld referred to Saddam loyalists as “dead enders”. They proved stubbornly resistant to surrender.
Iran is different: In Iraq, US forces were viewed as an occupation army and represented a force alien to Iraqi culture: in Iran, a large segment of the population views the IRGC/Basij as being the alien element in their culture.
This lack of sympathy will make a guerrilla movement hard to support beyond its immediate area of control. Pinning them down through relentless drone strikes will erode their inner cohesion and lead to demoralization. If the Iranian military can be persuaded to turn against the security forces, resistance will be short-lived.
In “Casablanca”, Rick Blain asks Captain Renault a pointed question: “Louis, are you pro-Vichy or Free French?” We discover Captain Renault’s loyalties at the movie’s end.
Donald Trump urgently needs to present a similar question to Iran’s military leadership. It is futile to expect surrender from the IRGC commanders.They know prison or execution await them in a free Iran.
“Donald Trump urgently needs to present a similar question to Iran’s military leadership. It is futile to expect surrender from the IRGC commanders.They know prison or execution await them in a free Iran.”
The appointment of Kid Khamenei, a man of little clerical distinction, as rahbar was clear evidence of a coup d’état by the IRGC. Although smaller in head count than Artesh, the IRGC has three times the budget and is the real power in Iran at all levels. Artesh cannot challenge IRGC, nor can they deliver a peace agreement.
“Artesh cannot challenge IRGC, nor can they deliver a peace agreement.”
The IRGC cannot maintain command control of its dispersed elements. They now more closely resemble a guerrilla force than a Praetorian Guard.
Imagine an auction for the “Peacock Throne”. Who would bid on it? The titular head of state would face the threat of assassination daily.
Who recognizes the IRCG’s authority to appoint a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? This is for the Assembly of Experts to determine and Motjaba Khamenei lacks the clerical credentials to succeed his father. As the above thread asks, Is he dead or is he as good as dead because of evidence indicating he is homosexual?
Who controls the Basij? Their commander, Gholamreza Soleimani, has been involuntary retired from service. National Security head Larijani, joins him in retirement.
President Masoud Pezeshkian could offer surrender terms but has no independent authority.
A military revolt against the remaining regime elements would face little effective resistance and be widely supported by the populace. If the IRGC can effect a coup against the clerics, the military can legitimately defend the status quo ante.
In a conventional surrender, the military lays down its arms; in this case, they would take them up only to lay them down after the IRGC’s uprising has been put down.
“[T]he IRGC has three times the budget and is the real power in Iran at all levels.”
Kinda hard to fund the troops when the banking services are off-line, Comrade.
“A missile strike hit the digital security center of Sepah Bank in Tehran early on Wednesday, according to information received by Iran International.
“The building, located on Haghani Street, was destroyed in the attack while the bank was processing salary payments for military personnel.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603110126
“Who recognizes the IRCG’s authority to appoint a successor to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?”
Mao Zedong: “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”
“Kinda hard to fund the troops when the banking services are off-line, Comrade.”
IRGC has the best troops, weapons, and training, all from their past funding advantage. They are fanatics and immediate financial considerations mean little to fanatics. The also have large stashes of currency for precisely this situation. It escaped your feeble attention that Artesh will be experiencing the very same current financial bind, and their troops are far less motivated ideologically.
It has yet to be established that IRGC is experiencing any C3I issues. Note that they swiftly replaced the recently departed Hossein Salami, then the departed Mohammad Pakpour, with Vahid Shah Cheraghi. Watch him and Mohsen Rezaee Mirgha’ed. They seem to be running the country since Larijani reached room temperature yesterday. Including Artesh and Basij.
I have told you before that Iran has an excellent military education system. The IRGC University of Command and Staff assures that they have a deep bench of substitute players. They are smart enough to use motorcycle couriers to convey commands and intelligence to the outposts.
Tehran’s mullahs have taken refuge in the city of Mashhad , meaning the place of martyrdom. Mayhaps they plan to exit this life iin a modern day reenactment of Masada n hopes of finding lasting bliss in the embrace of their promised virgins.
https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/2031924663417241995
“Tehran’s mullahs have taken refuge in the city of Mashhad , meaning the place of martyrdom. Mayhaps they plan to exit this life iin a modern day reenactment of Masada n hopes of finding lasting bliss in the embrace of their promised virgins.”
Telenko, as always, is wrong. The Iranian leadership, including the clerics, are holed up in hospitals and schools. Only going outside dressed in burqas.
“Trent Telenko always lies.”
“As the world watches the Iranian regime scramble to find a spider hole in the face of escalating regional pressure, a stark reality has emerged: former President Joe Biden’s catastrophic decision to abandon Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan has left the United States with its hands tied behind its back.
“Reports are now flooding in that the Iranian ‘top brass,’ sensing the walls closing in on Tehran, have decamped to the distant city of Mashhad.
This isn’t just a change of scenery; it’s a strategic retreat. As was noted on X, the regime has abandoned the capital for a site “as far away from US bases and carriers—and from Israel—as you can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan.”
“Mashhad, now identified as the site where many say regime officials are conducting state TV interviews from a branch of the Foreign Ministry, sits roughly 575 miles from Bagram Airbase. In military terms, that is a stone’s throw for a modern air force. But thanks to the Biden administration’s 2021 surrender of that strategic crown jewel, that distance might as well be a million miles.
“U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz summed up the frustration of the military community in five words: ‘If only we still had Bagram Airbase…'”
Attribution: https://www.dailywire.com/news/as-iranian-mullahs-panic-and-flee-to-safe-haven-bidens-bagram-betrayal-haunts-u-s-response
“President Trump was stunned to learn last week
Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources.”
I wish everyone could write coherently, but especially journalists. Being surprised does not mean you were stunned.
[…] (Hat tip: Regular commenter Malthus.) […]
“Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”
Then the IRGC is nearly powerless, having been reduced to 10% of its pre-war missile inventory.
“Then the IRGC is nearly powerless, having been reduced to 10% of its pre-war missile inventory.”
Time to get out your ESL dictionary and learn the difference between “gun” and “missile”.
Seriously, IRGC and a number of observers said yesterday that IRGC has only launched 7% of their missile inventory. They made no mention of drone inventories, but showed undated photos of underground halls chock full of Shaheed 136’s.