Thermoclines of truth, where valid information can’t make it to the top of organizations because telling unpleasant truths is discouraged, has been an ongoing concern of the blog. Simon Whistler and his crew have taken a look at the Russian military, and it appears that it’s thermoclines of truth (and endemic corruption) all the way down.
He starts out with a discussion of the current state of the war:
“Once upon a time, the Russian military was supposed to be the second most powerful on Earth. Today, the Russian military isn’t even the most powerful military in Ukraine.”
“From the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the nation’s armed forces have been subjected to a strange humiliation ritual, partly because of the cunning and innovation of their Ukrainian rivals, but partly because of the sheer bumbling idiocy of their own commanding officers.”
“Russia’s consistent ability to find its way into new and catastrophic blunders also definitely doesn’t hurt. As painful as the last several years have been for the Russian military, the situation has deteriorated even further in 2026. Russia is losing troops at an unprecedented rate, expending more lives, more munitions, and more state wealth. Even as they capture less and less territory each month, his battlefield commanders are making increasingly poor decisions, and they’re openly lying to their higher-ups when their attacks inevitably fall apart.”
“In the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin and his inner circle are being fed a constant stream of false victories when on the front lines, Russia’s spring and summer offensive has fallen flat on its face.”
“But however incompetent the Russian military might seem, the reality is even worse. Because underneath Ukrainian victories and underneath obvious blunders by Moscow, the Russian military has built a hidden corrupt machine where every battlefield catastrophe puts rubles into Russian pockets.”
“As the time of writing, Russian forward progress on the battlefield has basically halted in an overall sense. But Russia is still pushing forward in some areas just as it is being pushed back in others.”
“The graft and exploitation we’re going to describe today isn’t an accident. It exists because of the war in Ukraine. It feeds off the war in Ukraine. And the people who benefit most from the exploitation are the same people with the greatest incentives to ensure that the war continues even after any honest outside appraisal would suggest that Russian gains aren’t even close to being worth the cost.”
“Just a few short months ago, Russia was moving assets into position for what was intended to be a major push centered on the city of Sloviansk in the partially occupied Donetsk oblast. Taking Sloviansk wasn’t going to be easy for the Russians.”
“But even before there was time for the spring offensive to get underway, Ukraine revealed what’s turned out to be a decisive advantage. a new arsenal of mid-range drones, including an American-made model called the Hornet, plus the tactical advances to use those drones effectively. Dubbed the Martian 2 by Russian soldiers, the Hornet is piloted partially by artificial intelligence, and it’s completely impervious to Russian jamming because it navigates by using that AI to read the terrain visually instead of relying on GPS or remote control. The onboard AI can identify targets and even handle the final kill process all by itself. Flying at a range of over a 100 km, they’re practically silent until just before impact.”
“They’re extremely cheap, and they’ve been used by Ukraine less to target Russian troops at the front, and more to target the staging operations that would have created the foundation of a successful offensive. Russian forces have been unable to protect their ammunition stockpiles, their fuel trucks, or their encampments and training grounds away from the front lines.” More on how Ukraine is hammering Russian logistics here.
“Nor is the Hornet the only drone in Ukraine’s arsenal. Recently, Ukraine’s 412th Nemesis Brigade unveiled the Morrigan, another mid-range strike drone that’s optimized to operate significantly behind enemy lines. Those drones have allowed Ukraine to completely diffuse the spring offensive before it ever really got going.”
“Even more important, Ukraine has achieved those results without putting its soldiers at greater risk. Ukraine’s forces are chronically undermanned and perpetually exhausted. And Kiev does not have the ability to go head-to-head with the full strength of a Russian offensive in any one area, but instead it’s completely destroyed the infrastructure Russia needed to create an offensive that wouldn’t collapse under its own weight.”
“As a result, Russian forces near the front are badly isolated, cut off from easy reinforcement and resupply, while the bulk of the killing takes place away from the front lines where Russian troops naturally have their guard down. Ukraine has even expanded its strikes to target the highway network leading across occupied territory and into Crimea where the impact of Ukraine’s bombardment has gotten so bad that the entire region is on the brink of economic collapse. Fuel trucks, trains, and even ferries are unable to reach Crimea. The existing fuel storage infrastructure there has been destroyed and the problem’s only getting worse with fuel shortages now starting to spread across the Donbas.”
“According to the latest frontline reports, mobile drone defense teams are now at risk of running out of fuel. A crisis that would clear the way for even deeper Ukrainian strikes.”
“Better yet for Ukraine, targeting efficiency is improving constantly, to the point that it now takes only a few minutes for Ukrainian forces to spot a new moving target, get a drone on site, and destroy it.”
“Over the last several years, Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a cycle of mutual innovation, with one side working out new solutions to battlefield problems and gaining a temporary advantage until the other side counters with innovations of their own. This time, however, Russia hasn’t been able to innovate a solution to the new problems that Ukraine has posed.”
“Russian troops are overextended and they have no choice but to hold their positions on the front when really their manpower is needed to defend the territory that Russia has already captured.”
“In the air, Russia still hasn’t found a way to meaningfully engage its air force in the conflict. Besides the use of strategic bombers and MiG-31 fighters to launch long-range cruise missiles, Russia can’t risk using some of its most valuable reconnaissance and command aircraft after Ukraine proved able to use American-made Patriot missiles to bring them down. And the supposedly world-class Su-57 fighter jet is still almost completely absent from contested airspace.”
“Russia’s aerial problem is expected to get even worse by early 2027, when Ukraine will take possession of its first Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets along with a long-range missile, the Meteor, that will have the range to strike Russian strategic bombers as they conduct those missile launches over the water.”
Snipping discussion of the poor state of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and the most recent St. Petersburg strike that we’ve covered in various LinkSwarms.
“Russian air defenses on the home front appear to be on the verge of complete collapse. Ukrainian long-range drones now regularly impact targets that were once unthinkable. From the Baltic Sea oil terminals at Primorsk and Luga to sensitive or highly specialized defense industrial centers located deep in the Russian heartland. Even Moscow has been targeted successfully.
“According to the chief designer at Ukraine’s leading missile innovator Firepoint, a new line of ballistic missiles will soon be operational and capable of hitting Moscow directly.”
“Russia hasn’t been able to meaningfully address the [air defense] problem.”
“As for its attempts to prevent Ukrainian long-range strikes, Russia seems to be unable to hit the command and control centers or the drone stockpiles that enable the campaign. So instead, Russia tries to deter Ukraine by launching long-range strikes of its own, often targeting population centers, energy infrastructure, or dual use facilities instead of going after the Ukrainian military.”
“Just as important [as Ukraine’s strikes], if not even more so, is the incredible consistency with which Russia manages to shoot itself in the foot. Moscow’s original sin, so to speak, is one that the rest of the world has gotten very familiar with. A supreme overconfidence that’s been helping Russia defeat itself from the very beginning. Despite the alternative storylines pushed out by Russian bot farms and repeated, no doubt, in this very comment section [aside: “Hello there, robots”], the idea that Kiev would fall in three days was very much a Russian invention.”
“But much more important than Russia’s original mistake was the fact that Moscow still hasn’t learned its lesson. Military planners and strategists all up and down the Russian military, from the unit level on the battlefield to Vladimir Putin himself, still base their decisions and expectations on an aggrandized version of the Russian military that simply does not exist.”
“Over time that problem is fused with another one. The fact that Russian leaders, again from the unit level all the way to the top, simply refuse to give each other honest assessments of what’s happening. At a certain point, those leaders realized that they could get away with reporting advances, victories, and other good news that didn’t actually exist.”
“The problem often starts small on the front lines. A Russian army captain sends a small unit to plant a flag and takes a few selfies in a contested area before that unit is annihilated in drone strikes. And then the captain sends those selfies to his major, claiming that today his forces took the territory in the picture. That same day, the major gets several similar reports from other captains. So he reports to his colonel that the front line has moved up by a few hundred meters when in reality most of the forces under his command have not moved at all.”
“That’s a throwaway example, of course, but you get the idea. And that news then travels up the chain until it reaches somebody like chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, Valery Gerasimov. We put the spotlight on Gerasimov in particular, because this is how you get statements like the one he made this past April, when he claims that Russia had captured a total of 80 settlements and over 1700 square kilometers since the start of the year. According to independent war monitors, Gerasimov tripled the amount of territory that Russia had actually taken. And of course, he failed to measure the territory that Russia had lost.”
“Don’t just take it from us, though. Even Russia’s milblogger class was calling bullshit in the aftermath.”
“But those institutional miscommunications, combined with the Russian military’s inflated perception of itself, combine to form a third problem, a demand for forward progress at all costs.”
“At this point in the war, commanders and higher-ups have gotten very used to the idea that their troops are consistently moving forward, consistently taking territory, and consistently getting Russia closer to victory. But now that lie has become too big to fail. And if individual Russian commanders were to report results that don’t align with that lie in places Russia wasn’t expecting, then they are at risk of being demoted, relieved of duty, or even worse.”
“As a result, each level of Russian leadership places immense pressure on the next level below them, all the way down to the frontline soldiers. Because their commanders need to deliver forward progress. And because their commanders won’t get into any real trouble if they sacrifice more lives in exchange, those frontline troops are at immense risk of being ordered forward into incredibly risky assaults.”
“Of course, it’s not unusual that a soldier on the front line of a major war would face some risk. But there’s a difference between being asked to advance as part of a coordinated push on a well-defined, well-scouted target and being told to sneak into a zone where there’s been no prior scouting and where Ukrainian surveillance and kamikaze drone coverage is expected to be overwhelming. Those are the kinds of situations that Russian soldiers are being ordered into. Not because there’s any expectation that they would succeed, but because their attempt gives their commanders enough plausible deniability to report success.”
Sometimes it works. “But the costs of munitions, funds, supplies, and especially human life are so much greater than the value of what Russia’s actually capturing.”
“Nor does Russia particularly care which soldiers get sent to the meat grinder. More and more sources from within the Russian military report the troops are sent into assault units regardless of their other qualifications, including skilled recruits who could make meaningful contributions to enhance Russia’s overall situation. Soldiers with experience in electrical work, logistics management, and even the medical field, have been reassigned against their will to assault brigades, often without explanation. At times, those reassignments come after they were recruited into the military on the promise that they’d be working with their advanced skill set.”
“Sometimes the reassignments appear to be random, but at other times they’re used as punishment. Soldiers who disobey orders, try to desert, or otherwise anger their commanders are highly likely to be reassigned to units where they’ll be used as cannon-fodder.”
“But let’s circle back to Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign, because that makes this problem even worse. At the best of times, Russian troops were being sent forward into these high-risk assaults with at least a few things going for them: A little bit of training and prep time, a decently well supplied sustainment infrastructure to keep them alive, a possibility of MedEvac if they’re wounded, and a possibility that reinforcements would soon join them if they survive.”
“Today, though, that entire support infrastructure has been torn to shreds. Yet, the expectation of forward progress still remains. So, these soldiers are still ordered forward, but they’re overexposed, under-supplied, and isolated compared to what was already a bad situation. When they’re wounded, they aren’t evacuated. They die slow, horrific, predictable deaths. To the point that instead of the usual ratio of killed to wounded in modern war, one killed for every three wounded, Ukrainian assessment suggests that Russia’s balance looks more like two soldiers killed for every one wounded.”
“Even worse, the soldiers who are wounded will often be sent back to combat. Every so often, video footage emerges from the front lines depicting soldiers on crutches or in wheelchairs bearing visible shrapnel wounds or dealing with limbs that won’t work like they’re supposed to, forced back into assault units where their death is all but certain.”
“And all of that would be bad enough if Russia wasn’t so insistent on hobbling its soldiers even further. Take the example of frontline drone equipment. According to Russian milblogger sources, the Kremlin recently ordered most combat units to start giving up drones of various models, sending them back to be reassigned to Russia’s dedicated drone forces. That’s despite the fact that the Russian drone forces are not properly dispersed along the front line, and they’re not part of any efficient decision-making infrastructure that would allow them to support Russian troops in real time. So where a Russian platoon might once have been able to use small FPV drones to scout their surroundings or strike Ukrainian targets, they now have nothing. They’re operationally blind and beholden to another branch of the military for support.”
“On paper, Russia has started to fix the issue. Officials in Moscow say that Russia is now producing record numbers of FPV drones. According to the milbloggers, however, these replacement drones are unreliable, ineffective, and of a dangerously low construction quality. Similarly, Russian troops are still reeling from the decision to cut off access to Telegram a couple of months ago, demanding that Telegram be replaced with the state-run Max app, despite the fact that it is insecure, incomplete, and extremely buggy. Maybe Vladimir Putin vibe coded it. The same could be said for the loss of Starlink, a western controlled connectivity service that Russia chose to remain dependent on instead of dedicating the appropriate resources to build its own alternative.”
“If we were to end this episode right now, the situation we’ve described would already be bad enough. A Russian military that’s completely failed to address Ukrainian combat innovations and one that’s consistently made decisions that puts its troops at extreme unnecessary risk. But all too often, when a country or a fighting force seems to suffer from issues so comprehensive and so obviously stupid, that they seem to resist understanding, it’s important to ask another question. Who’s getting paid?”
“If Russia’s obvious incentives are to increase the combat potency of its troops, make legitimate gains on the battlefield, and eventually win the war, then who benefits inside Russia from making sure that that doesn’t happen? To answer that question, we’re going to invite you to think about the war a bit differently for just a minute.”
“Take away the people, the guns, the tanks, the drones, and the territory, and think about Russia’s invasion as a flow of money. That money is being sent from within Russia and funneled into Ukraine. Sent in the form of military equipment, fuel supplies, and direct payments made to Russian soldiers. Then some of that money flows back into Russia as those soldiers paychecks travel to bank accounts or are sent to their families.”
“That flow of funds is partially regulated, but it’s happening in and around an active combat zone, which means monitoring is difficult, and financial transfers have to happen with limited internal oversight or anti-corruption protections. Not to mention that the Russian state isn’t exactly the best at internal oversight.”
“Transactions happen on the aggregate scale of tens of billions of rubles, meaning that even relatively large amounts of missing cash can easily be dismissed as just a rounding error.”
“If you were a person interested in taking money that you could reasonably obtain somewhere within the Russian economy, then the war is the perfect place to do it. You’ve just got to figure out where you can get in the way of the regular flow of funds, whether those funds are headed into the conflict zone or traveling out.”
“Take another look at the problems the Russian military is dealing with and the specter of internal corruption is everywhere.”
“We’ll start with a few examples at the top from people who exert immense power within the Russian armed forces. Take Roman Demurchiev, a major general who serves as deputy commander of Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army. Over the span of several years, he engaged in regular shakedowns of his subordinates worth the equivalent of hundreds of thousands of US dollars, some of which he passed up to his superiors who expected additional payouts. As he once texted to one of his subordinates, quote, “War is war, but don’t forget about the cash. Get yours. Delete this message later.'”
“Or take the former deputy defense minister Ruslan Tsalikov, who was brought up on bribery, money laundering, and conspiracy charges that alleged he created a gang to steal from the Russian state budget. He was brought down during a wave of prosecutions that surrounded former defense minister Sergey Shoygu.”
“But even though Russia does occasionally prosecute corrupt officials, the Kremlin’s track record dovetails in a very troubling way with the problem we’ve already mentioned. Commanders only tend to come under real scrutiny when they’ve already failed in some way that requires their removal, usually due to battlefield setbacks. From Vladimir Putin’s perspective, the nice thing about everybody in the Russian leadership being so corrupt, is that when it’s time to remove them, it usually doesn’t take very long to dig into their finances and bring legitimate, damning charges against them.”
“But if these commanders understand that they’ll only be scrutinized after they’ve been found to have committed battlefield screw-ups, then they’re heavily incentivized to ensure that their screw-ups don’t become common knowledge. So they push their subordinates harder and they push their subordinates harder still until frontline soldiers are fighting and dying to create an illusion of frontline progress so their commanders can save their skins.”
“Or take another problem we’ve already mentioned, the cheapy and ineffective FPP drones that are being flooded toward the Russian front lines. That decision was the work of Yuri Vaganov, the commander of the Russian unmanned systems forces who was appointed in late 2025. But here’s the thing about Vaganov. He has got zero military experience, zero military education, despite now holding the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. Instead, he owns a very large drone company, the same drone company that’s now guzzling down rubles from state contracts and mass-producing the FPV drones that Russian soldiers are expected to use. Interesting, isn’t it? In essence, this single aspiring oligarch has worked out a way to position himself within both the Russian military itself and the Russian defense industrial complex so that he could give himself a monopoly over drone procurement in the biggest drone war that the world has ever seen.”
“For Russian soldiers, his appointment is a life-threatening catastrophe. But for Vaganov himself, the incentives will be to cut corners, inflate costs, and otherwise pillage as much of Russia’s drone budget as possible.”
“But let’s talk about the other way that money flows through the Russian side of this war, into soldiers pockets, and then ideally back to their bank accounts or to their families. That’s where lower level commanders get their opportunity, because they wield the power to decide who lives and who dies. Take an article published this April by The Economist, where a dozen Russian contract soldiers describe a system where low-level infantrymen will bribe their commanders for a position away from the front and then spend a high share of their remaining wages financing their commander’s lifestyle while carrying out unpaid labor on the side.”
“As one soldier in that article described, troops often start giving up a portion of their paychecks to buy decent drones or body armor or other assets that might, you know, keep them alive. But then also, quote, ‘You’ll pay forever so they don’t send you to the meat grinder.’ Other Russian commanders have purportedly forced troops to pay exorbitant sums to stay alive and sometimes just to avoid being shot on the spot.”
“According to recent reports by exiled Russian journalists, low-level commanders operate more like gang leaders than actual military personnel, in increasingly sophisticated structures that are informed by the high proportion of ex-convicts that now swell the Russian ranks. Often when new troops arrive, commanders confiscate their bank cards and ping codes and threaten violence against those who don’t comply. And when those soldiers are killed, they’re formally reported by their commanders as missing. A change that ensures that money will continue flowing to their accounts.”
“Think of frontline soldiers as a pure revenue stream, and even some of Russia’s most asinine decisions start to make sense. When a soldier is wounded in combat, that soldier still receives a paycheck. And if they can be kept on the front lines, then the process of extortion can continue.”
“When a higher skill Russian recruit shows up in one of those units, commanders know that they’re likely to have more money, partly because they’re going to be paid on a better contract, and partly because they probably have some form of savings squirreled away from their civilian life. Trap those soldiers in an assault unit, and there’s no limit to what they might be willing to pay in order to avoid the meat grinder. But if they seem as if they’ll cause trouble, then the meat grinder is right there for their commanders to use.”
“Those incentives also help explain increasing reports of physical torture of Russian soldiers by their own commanders on or near the front lines, including soldiers who’ve already been wounded. Our own Warfronts team has encountered footage of Russian troops who’ve had multiple limbs amputated due to combat wounds who were then cling-wrapped onto trees and extorted further. Videos like that can be sent to a soldier’s family who will then ends up paying even more to spare the life of a person who’s locked into conscription or contract by the Russian state.” The Western tradition of military service demands leaders who will do just about anything for the men serving under them, while Russian officers torture their subordinates for money.
“Quoting researcher Alexandra Arapova [Russian families] are saying that literally we paid everything to have our father, brother, husband not to be killed. In many cases, superiors, they use torture to take money from the soldiers.”
“As for the scale of the brutality, we can’t know for sure, but judging by the available information, this kind of treatment is everywhere. One Russian exile outlet, Radio Echo, obtained accounts from soldiers like these, and over a 6-month period in 2025, Radio Echo indicated that they had received almost 12,000 complaints of corruption and violence by Russian commanders against their own men.”
“It’s here that we find the real root of Russia’s ongoing military incompetence. Where Ukraine has spent the last four years learning, adapting, and innovating on the battlefield, Russian generals, defense industrial elites, and low-level battlefield commanders have been building a deeply corrupt machine at every level of the Russian armed forces. That machine exists to extract wealth for the direct and personal benefit of people lucky enough to wield power at the expense of frontline soldiers who aren’t so fortunate.”
“In a system like that, where officials aren’t just personally corrupt, but can safely assume that corruption is all around them, reform just isn’t a goal, even if it saves lives. Reform, there is a danger, even an enemy. Because if Russia were to ever fix the incompetence that runs through its armed forces, then it would destroy the machine that Russian incompetence is built to serve.”
“Right now, that status quo demands constant reports of forward progress, by any means necessary. And the Kremlin is willing to pay every ruble in Russia in order to make that happen.”
“But Vladimir Putin’s military is overrun with people who don’t particularly care about conquering Ukraine as long as they know they’ll be set for life in the post-war Russia that comes next. Russian incompetence is getting worse because it’s becoming streamlined and because the Russian leadership has proved that corruption will go unchecked as long as forward progress continues.”
“The incompetence is the point because the longer this situation lasts, the longer this vast corrupt machine can go on making a profit.”
Thermoclines of truth and endemic corruption are the horrifying reality for Russian soldiers, and also a big reason why Ukraine has a real chance to win.
We previous touched on Putin’s thermocline of truth here.
More California fraud! More Minnesota fraud! Ukraine continues pounding Russia! Murder still illegal!
Personally, this week has been an exercise in frustration, mainly due to trying to replace an old, cracked car keyfob where the results were my car refusing to turn on. Which means I’m behind on all my errands. Solved now, but it was a pain. Also, for some reason Bluehost has crapped out 429 errors more than usual today.
It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
“New House Oversight Report Claims Walz, Ellison Were Aware of Fraud in 2019. “These fraudulently obtained funds likely funded international terrorist networks among other bad actors, while vulnerable populations were harmed and whistleblowers were ignored, sidelined, and retaliated against.”
Following a months-long investigation, the House Oversight Committee released a report Monday accusing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison of knowing about rampant fraud in the state’s federally funded social services programs as far back as 2019, and turning a blind eye.
The investigation also draws on testimony Walz and Ellison provided during a March hearing before the committee.
The 205-page report, titled “The Cost of Doing Nothing: How Tim Walz and Keith Ellison Fueled Minnesota’s Fraud Explosion,” states that Walz and Ellison:
Possessed the legal and procedural authority to stop payments and ban fraudulent providers from participating in these programs, but repeatedly failed to act. As a result, billions of American taxpayer dollars were potentially paid to fraudulent actors. These fraudulently obtained funds likely funded international terrorist networks among other bad actors, while vulnerable populations were harmed and whistleblowers were ignored, sidelined, and retaliated against.
Testimony and documents obtained to date establish a consistent pattern: fraud warnings were elevated to the most senior levels of the Minnesota state government, meaningful corrective action was delayed or avoided, and payments continued long after credible signs of fraud emerged.
Senior officials in Governor Walz’s office and Attorney General Ellison’s office were aware of credible, systemic fraud concerns in social services programs as early as 2019 within the Minnesota Department of Human Services (DHS) and by April 2020 within the state Department of Education (MDE), despite later public statements by Governor Walz suggesting otherwise.
The committee concluded that Minnesota officials had ample authority to suspend payments to providers suspected of fraud but repeatedly failed to do so. Investigators found that state agencies continued funding Feeding Our Future even after identifying serious deficiencies, allowing hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to flow to fraudsters until federal authorities intervened.
Of course they were aware. It was a major conduit for lining the pockets of the left!
California is home to the lion’s share of illegal immigrant families in the United States with children who received federal welfare assistance in 2024, according to a federal report published on June 10.
More than 80 percent of all nationwide cash assistance allocated to such households was spent in California. The report tracked $759 million in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spent in 2024 on families headed by a parent living in the country illegally.
In those cases, the child qualified for federal welfare, even though the parent was excluded from the federal program because of immigration status.
“These cases receive relatively little public attention, yet … data show that they are far from a negligible part of the program,” wrote authors David Swegle, director of the Office of Family Assistance at the Administration for Children and Families under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Alex J. Adams, assistant secretary at the Administration for Children and Families, in the report.
Nationally, the federal government paid 85,000 households with qualifying children receiving assistance who were living with their illegal immigrant parents in the U.S. in 2024.
“Although the benefit is formally paid on behalf of the child, it still supports a household that includes an immigration-status-ineligible parent,” the authors stated. “The significance of these cases therefore cannot be judged solely by the fact that the adult is not the formal recipient.”
The cases are also significant because they don’t have to adhere to the TANF rules requiring work expectations, such as regularly applying for jobs, and the payments aren’t limited to the federal 60-month lifetime limit, according to the report. The illegal immigrant families, therefore, can receive federal welfare until the child turns 18 years old.
Low-income American families are held to the federal welfare restrictions that require work participation and are restricted to a 60-month lifetime limit, the authors said.
The number of TANF cases involving an illegal immigrant parent reached nearly 850,000—or 10 percent of all cases—in 2024, up from nearly 6 percent in 2001.
Of those, nearly 78,000 households—or about 91 percent—also received federal food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the report revealed.
Most of the illegal immigrant parents—over 106,000—identified as Hispanic, while 5.3 percent were White, 4.3 percent were Black, and 2 percent were Asian, the report stated.
Here’s an idea: California doesn’t get any more cash for illegal aliens, period, until they repeal all the sanctuary city declarations, allow federal auditing of all their welfare programs, and implement SAVE Act compliant measures to ensure only citizens vote.
More Cali fraud: “Federal Government Pauses Funding To Los Angeles Homeless Agency Citing Fraud Allegations.”
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on June 11 suspended federal funding to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA), cutting off millions of dollars to the L.A. region, over allegations of fraud and widespread mismanagement.
It’s superbly managed to line the pockets of leftists.
HUD Secretary Scott Turner testifies before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development about his department’s proposed FY2026 budget in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 14, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
HUD action to suspend federal funding comes in the wake of an investigation into LAHSA, Secretary Scott Turner announced Thursday, adding that the agency has “uncovered evidence of LAHSA’s false statements and its irresponsible actions and failures,” including a lack of financial management and lack of safeguards against conflicts of interest.
The Los Angeles Continuum of Care (CoC), led by LAHSA, has received nearly $1 billion in taxpayer dollars over the last five years. Despite federal assistance, L.A. remains the epicenter of the nation’s “drug-fueled” homeless crisis, according to Turner.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, HUD will fund results, not corrupt failure or the homeless-industrial complex,” Turner said in a statement. “Year after year, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were funneled to LAHSA with little accountability. Meanwhile, homelessness skyrocketed. Taxpayers will no longer bankroll an organization that puts its own self-interests ahead of the Americans it was created to serve.”
HUD stated in a letter to LAHSA that suspension of funding will be final if the agency does not contest the notice by requesting a hearing. LAHSA must file a written hearing request within 30 days of receipt of the notice.
The Homeless Industrial Complex maw is insatiable.
A possible reason for my continued unemployment? “Of the 369,000 jobs the Labor Department says were created since the start of Trump’s second term, nearly all — 348,000 of them — went to women, with only 21,000 going to men.” I wonder if Kurt Schlichter would be interested in filing a class action lawsuit on behalf of myself and other men…
One year after Frisco high school student Karmelo Anthony was indicted on murder charges over the fatal stabbing of [Austin Metcalf], his trial concluded with the jury’s verdict that Anthony is guilty of murder.
During their sentencing deliberations, the jury considered a “sudden passion” claim, but eventually rejected it and decided that Anthony would face a 35-year prison sentence.
He will be eligible for parole after 17 and a half years.
Like Kyle Rittenhouse’s not guilty verdict, this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who doesn’t view the world through social justice-tinted glasses.
“Whistleblower vindicated: Biden officials invented loophole to impose gender identity, flout court. Leaders ‘actively engaged in efforts to thwart at least one regional office from following the plain and unambiguous meaning’ of the injunction against their gender identity reading of Title IX, Department of Education concludes.”
High-ranking Biden administration officials conspired to violate a 2022 court order against their interpretation of Title IX as covering “gender identity” within the definition of “sex,” and may have also tried to conceal those efforts through coercion and intimidation, according to a Department of Education report made public Wednesday after lengthy outside review.
The U.S. Office of Special Counsel told President Trump the department “fully substantiated the allegations” by whistleblower Timothy Mattson, who now leads the department’s Office for Civil Rights’ regional office in Kansas City, recommending sanctions against current and former officials and compensation for Mattson for the risk he took coming forward.
You know the giant Democrat tantrum over ICE funding? We won.
Democrats put everything they had in their effort to shut down President Donald Trump’s border control plans. And what exactly have they achieved for their often-infantile antics?
Well, let’s see. This week, the House passed a bill that funds ICE for three years. Deportations are near all-time highs. Oh, and it looks like Trump’s border wall will be completed next year.
On Tuesday, the House passed a “budget reconciliation” bill that provides enough money ($38 billion) to fund ICE for the rest of Trump’s term, plus $28 billion for the Border Patrol, and another $5 billion for border security technology and screening.
And what did Democrats get for shutting down all or part of the government for nearly four months?
Bupkus. Zilch. Nada. Nichts. Niente. 没有什么.This has to be one of the most embarrassing political defeats in history.
If Border Czar Tom Homan is intimidated by the Left’s endless anti-ICE rhetoric and threats, he’s not showing it. In fact, on Monday, he announced he’s doubling down on illegal immigrant operations in New York City and plans a surge in the very near future. This is a direct “in your face” move to counter Gov. Kathy Hochul’s efforts to kneecap federal enforcement in the Empire State.
He spoke as ongoing violent anti-ICE protests continued throughout the weekend at Delaney Hall, a detention facility in nearby Newark, New Jersey.
It’s coming, he told Fox & Friends:
Trump border czar Tom Homan revealed Monday that the administration has already drawn up an operational plan and warned Hochul before she signed legislation late last month restricting ICE activities and banning masked immigration agents in New York.
“You’re going to see more ICE than you’ve ever seen in New York City, and it’s coming,” Homan said, according to Bloomberg. “I just reviewed an operational plan. I’m not going to tell you exactly when it’s going to happen, but it’s coming.”
Maine Democrats obeyed The Will of The Party and lined up yo vote for the Nazi.”
Graham Platner, the scandal-plagued progressive veteran, will win the Democratic primary for the Maine Senate race, according to a projection by the Associated Press.
Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her own Senate primary campaign on April 30, effectively handing the nomination to Platner.
Platner has painted himself as an outsider to the Democratic establishment since his fiery campaign launch last fall. In line with those of other progressive and populist candidates, Platner’s political bid has focused on working-class issues, including affordability, universal health care, and labor union relations.
He will advance to face Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins in November. Collins is seen as a moderate Republican, often crossing party lines to vote with Democrats. However, because Collins appeals to a more moderate, centrist bloc of voters, she has received backlash from her supporters on several occasions for voting with her own party, including her vote to advance the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018.
The Senate campaign has been rocked by controversies since last year. In October, CNN and several other outlets uncovered Platner’s past Reddit posts and comments, which included offensive comments about police and sexual assault survivors. He’s since been ensnared in a number of other scandals, including those involving his Nazi tattoo, his marital infidelity, and his past treatment of women.
Remember all that self-serving “when they go low, we go high” blather Democrats mouthed to further the laughable illusion of their moral superiority? They never meant it.
“Trump ally Nikol Pashinyan wins Armenian election, paving way for US-backed peace deal.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party won a majority in the country’s parliamentary elections, marking a victory for Donald Trump after the president endorsed him.
Pashinyan first took power in 2018 in the so-called Velvet Revolution, then won again in the 2021 snap elections triggered by his crushing loss of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War against Azerbaijan. Armenia held its first regular election since he first took power in 2018 on Sunday, during which he won reelection with a vote total far above his closest rival.
The latest preliminary results on Monday gave Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party 49.82% of the vote, the Associated Press reported, with the pro-Russian Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia bloc coming in second with 23.28% of the vote. The Armenia Alliance bloc led by former President Robert Kocharyan is hovering around 10%, while the rest of the splintered opposition remained in the mid to low single digits.
He beat three pro-Russian parties, another black eye for Putin.
Two independent candidates for U.S. Senate have fundraising profiles on ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s key fundraising platform, raising questions about the candidates’ true political independence as they look to capture two long-held Republican seats this fall.
ActBlue allows independent candidates to fundraise on its platforms on a “case-by-case basis,” based on whether a Democrat is in the race, the candidate has an endorsement from the Democratic Party, or the candidate has demonstrated alignment with the Democratic Party’s ideals and policy goals.
But both independent candidates — Seth Bodnar in Montana and Dan Osborn in Nebraska — are running against Democrats, as well as Republicans. While the Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed Osborn, Bodnar has not received an official Democratic endorsement.
Speaking of ActBlue shenanigans: “Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Bars Texas AG Paxton’s Lawsuit Against ActBlue.”
A federal judge has barred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from pursuing his state court lawsuit against ActBlue, a major Democratic online fundraising platform.
President Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns ruled Thursday that the case represented no more than a retaliation campaign for ActBlue’s political activities supporting Paxton’s opponent in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Stearns issued a preliminary injunction preventing Paxton from pursuing the Texas case. The judge found the lawsuit attempted to undermine protected political speech and therefore violated the First Amendment.
“The truth is plain and captured in Paxton’s own declarations: The lawsuit was filed in retaliation for (and in an attempt to suppress) ActBlue’s efforts to fund Talarico’s campaign,” Stearns wrote in the ruling.
Neither Paxton’s office nor ActBlue immediately returned a request for comment.
Paxton filed the initial lawsuit in April in Texas state court as he campaigned as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat.
The suit singled out ActBlue, a Massachusetts-based fundraising platform that claims to have raised billions for Democratic candidates and causes since its founding in 2004. It sought civil penalties and an order blocking ActBlue from accepting certain gift card donations.
The Texas attorney general alleged that ActBlue employed deceptive practices after the fundraising platform resumed gift card and foreign prepaid debit card donations after informing Congress that it had ceased conducting the transactions. Paxton alleged the practices could empower foreign nationals to hide their identities while making political contributions, potentially in violation of state law.
Under Sterns logic, no Republican could ever sue ActBlue for breaking the law because they ran against Democrats using the platform to raise money.
SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk a trillionaire. Maybe he could give me a million to run an anti-Social justice Warrior center here in Austin…
“Basic Health Fixes Doctors Know Work But Can’t Make Money From.” I do own dogs and cook at home for all but one meal a week, but only do strength training once a week.
“How Japan Finally Made It Impossible to Make Babies.” Women in the workforce + culture of overwork + high Tokyo prices = shrinking population. And the rest of the west faces similar (if less currently less severe) demographic problems.
Occasionally when wasting time on YouTube searching for content to post here, I come across videos that make an obvious pairing. Today’s topic: Death Rays!
First up: Simon Whistler on the U.S. military’s Songbow Laser Cannon:
“Lasers are not just a sci-fi prop anymore. They are at the heart of a global race to develop the most powerful and precise directed energy weapons. China, Russia, Israel, and the UK are all in on the game. But with Songbow, the US Navy’s new laser cannon, America probably thinks it’s won.”
“Songbow will feature a 400 kilowatt laser. That is a major step up from its older sibling, the 60 kilowatt Helios. This extra energy will allow it to hit bigger, tougher targets faster and from further away. As modern warfare evolves, it’s the weapons surface vessels need to counter serious aerial threats like drone swarms and incoming missiles. And where traditional interceptors can cost millions, a shot from a song bow could be as cheap as a dollar.”
“There’s been mounting concern in recent years about the survivability of the US Navy’s vessels. Countries like China are now armed with large numbers of drones and anti-ship missiles. The modernizing of China’s navy has been steadily underway for decades with the result that it’s now a formidable foe.” Sort of. They have a lot of ships, but they still don’t have a deep water navy, and none of their current aircraft carriers are nuclear powered.
“There’s been debate over whether America’s surface vessels might need to stay beyond the range of these weapons in future conflicts. And of course, China is no longer the only threat.”
“Up until now, there have been two key limitations affecting the US Navy in this arena. First, there’s the finite depth of its magazines. In response to airborne threats, surface ships are limited to how many surface-to-air missiles they can carry. And secondly, there’s the wildly disproportionate cost to kill. An unmanned aerial vehicle, also known as a drone, can be made very little, but it can cost literally a fortune to take it down.”
“Needless to say, these problems are not unique to the US Navy, and the solution to them isn’t either. It’s the same solution being explored by governments the world over: Lasers. Or to give them their full designation, high-powered directed energy weapons.”
“The US Navy has been investing in laser technology for a while now. Its interest goes right back to the days of Ronald Reagan’s strategic defense initiative. Publicly launched in 1983, this was the plan to pioneer a space-based missile defense system which would include a network of lasers to protect America from nuclear attack. The press nicknamed it Star Wars.”
“It was the start of a long flirtation with the possibilities of laser weapons. In the late 1990s, the US and Israel came up with the tactical high energy laser for military use, also known as Nautilus. This used a chemical laser, one that takes its energy from a chemical reaction.” That didn’t work.
“A much better solution seemed to lie in electricity. A beam would instead be generated and amplified through thin glass fibers. As an alternative to chemicals, fiber lasers are smaller, safer, and better suited to mobile applications. They might not have the raw power of chemical lasers, but in theory, they’re much easier to deploy. Think less death ray, and more laser pointer kind of. The main challenge was generating enough power with a fiber laser. So, in the late 2000s and early 2010s, researchers began creating combined beams and array systems using the collective power of several smaller lasers.”
“And this is where the technological leaps are now being made. But whatever has gone before, Songbow has the potential to eclipse its predecessors. It’s been designed in direct response to increasing aerial threats like drones, projectiles, and hypersonic missiles. It follows on from the Navy’s Helios, a high energy laser weapon that’s now been deployed on the Arleigh Burke class destroyer. But where Helios can fire at around 60 kW, Songbow will pack a much stronger punch at around 400 KW. It does this by combining multiple 50 kW fiber laser modules to form one beam.”
“It’s hoped that the power density of a 400 kW class beam will be able to do this to bigger targets at longer ranges. Songbow’s key function will be as a drone and missile defense system, but its pulseed fiber lasers will also assist with remote sensing and target illumination.”
“It’s expected to be installed on naval surface vessels, but could also be deployed on land, making it really rather versatile.”
“The Pentagon is directing billions of dollars into directed energy weapons. The US Navy, Army, Air Force, and Missile Defense Agency are all channeling money into high energy lasers, microwave systems, and battlefield power systems. In April this year, the Department of Defense unveiled a $ 1.5 trillion budget proposal for the fiscal year 2027, described as the most expensive military outlay in modern history. Because as more and more US adversaries and potential adversaries invest in their own capabilities, maintaining dominance is now a spending priority. Jules Hurst III, President Trump’s Under Secretary for War and chief financial officer, has hailed it as a generational investment in the United States military.”
“The US Navy has invested almost $30 million into the [Songbow] project, with funding coming from the US Office of Naval Research. In June 2025, it announced that the contract had been awarded to Coherent Aerospace and Defense in Moretta, California. Not long after, the division was sold to the private investor Advent International. Now renamed Atalon, the company is focused on this growing industry, precision optics and laser systems for aerospace and defense.”
“Beyond all the marketing speak, there are some real advantages to Songbow compared to other solutions. Let’s look at what makes the list of pros. We’ve already talked about that 400 kW beam. Achieving this higher power would mean a drastically increased range and destructive capability. It could even have the ability to eliminate threats that other systems can’t. These might include hypersonic glide vehicles, which move too quickly for traditional interceptors, and hardened cruise missiles, which can’t be beaten by less powerful lasers. It’s estimated that at least 300 kW are needed to burn through the structure of a cruise missile in flight, making a Songbow laser comfortably capable. Now, this is yet to be proved. It’s all aspirational, but it’s what we’ve got to go on.”
“Next up, there’s its cost effectiveness. Wars are cripplingly expensive, as you probably know…The Navy spent an estimated $2 billion in munitions while countering Houthi missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aiden. Most galling of all of this is that the threats they’re countering can be really cheap. In the Russia Ukraine war, drones costing a few hundred dollars have successfully taken out multi-million dollar combat systems. Even the more expensive drone options require a huge spend to neutralize. An Iranian one-way attack drone like the Shahead can cost between $20,000 and $50,000. But the interceptor missiles needed to take it down will set the US back millions. And it’s here that the Songbow and other laser weapons could make all the difference. Directed energy is much much cheaper per shot compared to traditional interceptors. Songbow costs somewhere between $1 and $10 for every shot because it’s only ammo is electricity.”
“This energy source also lends it another advantage. As long as a ship’s power supply lasts, it can keep going. With an unlimited magazine depth, there’s no fear of missile stocks running low. Logistically, it’s a lot easier. In contrast, a Patriot missile battery, for instance, typically contains between six and eight launching stations, each capable of holding 16 PAC3 missiles or four PAC2s. At most, it’s got 128 missiles ready to fire, depending on its configuration.”
“And of course, at sea, space is at a premium. A surface vessel can only carry so many interceptors. Running low on ammunition is also known as ‘going Winchester.’ Ships equipped with the Aegis combat system, the US Navy’s long-standing shield of the fleet, typically carry up to 96 missiles. This might sound like a lot, but it’s a known limitation. When they’re gone, they’re gone.”
“And there’s another thing in Songbow’s favor, too. In the face of threats, laser weapons are fast. Where missiles or bullets take seconds to reach their targets, the Songbow is instantaneous. As soon as it’s fired, it’s arrived. And unlike conventional weapons, you can go again and again. No reloading, no waiting around. This is obviously very handy if you’ve got multiple incoming projectiles and want to move straight onto the next one.”
“Modern warfare is often dictated by quantity rather than quality. Launching a large swarm of drones, decoys, or projectiles is an effective way of completely overwhelming defenses. These are what strategists call saturation attacks. There are just too many targets to handle all at once. There’s not enough time to reload and refocus, and missile stocks simply run out. But in theory, as long as electrical power lasts, directed energy weapons could keep going.”
“We need to be very wary of overhyping this, though. A high energy laser still needs time to disable a target and move on. So, there’s still a limit to what could be achieved in a large enough saturation attack. But with more than one laser weapon, the advantage would be pretty sizable.”
“Directed energy weapons can also stay on target continuously. They can follow a threat and maintain their beam while it’s maneuvering.”
“It’s even rumored that Songbow will be able to defeat hypersonic missiles. These, you see, are a real fly in the ointment for defenders like the US. Hypersonic missiles are able to fly at speeds exceeding Mach 5 and change course unpredictably, making them notoriously tricky to take down. Contrast this with an inbound ballistic missile. In this case, conventional air defense systems can track it and calculate its future flight path. It tends to be fairly predictable. They’ll then launch an interceptor to meet it where it’s likely to end up. Hypersonic missiles, though, don’t play by these rules. They’re faster and they change course mid-flight, making it much harder to calculate their flight path. In theory, Songbow’s winning combination of high power, speed of light engagement, and capacity for continuous firing could see it win the day.” Set aside for a moment that Russia and China’s “hypersonic” missiles are more hype than sonic.
“However cool and futuristic it sounds, Songbow still has its limitations and its critics.”
“One of the main obstacles to any laser weapon is nature herself. Atmospheric conditions like mist, fog, and rain can all absorb and scatter light, diffusing a laser’s beam. And the same goes for things like smoke, salt particles, and if it’s used on land, dust and sand. So, this is not an all-weather solution. And in time, seaborne enemy craft could even be fitted with devices that create smoke or other obscurants to protect themselves. This would be a very easy way to counter a laser. Extreme sea conditions will also pose a problem. Lasers follow a straight line of sight, which isn’t always possible on a constantly shifting terrain like water. Rough seas and swells can easily disrupt a beam, especially over longer distances.” With modern gyro-stabilization, I suspect this is largely a solved problem.
“Even a ship’s vibration can cause difficulties. High energy lasers rely on precision, but the general operation of a ship is pretty unstable. As well as waves and the motion of the ocean, you’ve got the vibrations from engines and onboard machinery. Maintaining a stable lock while taking all of these things into account is going to be really quite hard.”
“And in practical terms, the sky, or rather the horizon line, is the limit here. A laser is clever, but it can’t magically arc over the horizon. It’s a definite physical limitation compared to a combat system like Aegis.”
“Another downside to high-energy laser systems comes in the form of thermal blooming. This is basically when a continuously firing laser beam heats up the air around it, causing it to defocus and become less effective. It’s a bigger issue when the targets are coming head-on in a straight line, known as a down-throat shot. At times like this, the beam has to sustain itself in one direction for a long time. The more powerful a laser weapon, the more troublesome this is. So, it could be a real problem for the 400 kW Songbow.”
“Operationally, all that power is something of a double-edged sword. We talked about the advantages of a weapon that can run from a ship’s electrical supply. Said earlier, as long as a ship’s power supply lasts, it can keep going. High power lasers, you see, need a hefty electrical supply and advanced cooling capabilities. A large amount of the energy they generate is just lost as heat, which needs to be dissipated. If it isn’t, the weapon will ultimately become damaged and will stop working.”
“Managing the temperature of a directed energy weapon is crucial. This means a specialized cooling system, and this is asking a lot of shipboard power systems, especially when they’re already prioritizing output for things like radar and propulsion. As journalist Charles Mitchell has written, quote, ‘The challenge is to cause a warship to act as a stable power plant and a heatsink at the same time as it is operating high demand sensors, combat systems, hotel loads, and other auxiliaries.” End quote. He argues that the laser fight won’t so much be limited by a ship’s fuel tank, but by its electrical and thermal headroom. If a laser is continuously being shot, its effectiveness is going to come down to how quickly its ongoing heat buildup can be carried off. But according to one naval industry report, even the Navy believes the Arleigh Burke class fleet of destroyers has quote reached the limits of its growth capacity. This raises serious questions about how easily older ships like these would be able to take on the Songbow’s enormous electrical and cooling demands. And this seems to be a challenge the US Navy is well aware of.”
“Already next generation surface vessels are in the works with designs for expanded power generation that will accommodate directed energy weapons. In December 2025, Donald Trump announced the Navy’s plan to develop a new class of ‘largest we have ever built’ battleships. It’s hoped that the first, the USS Defiant, will be ready in the early 2030s. According to plans, the Defiant will be nuclear powered to provide the Navy’s fleet with quote a significant increase in combat power by longer endurance, higher speed, and advanced weapon systems required for modern wars.” This is also the reason the Gerald R. Ford class of aircraft carriers is powered by two nuclear reactors.
“Among these same plans, the Trump class battleship seems to include two 300 or 600 kW shipborne lasers and other laser systems for optical dazzling and sensor disruption.”
“Commentators have described directed energy weapons as central to the Trump class ship’s design, but this form of weaponry has always had its hurdles. Hurdles that have plagued the development of laser weapons since the 1980s. Even a Congressional Research Service report acknowledges the old saying, quoting again, “Lasers are X years in the future and always will be.”
“Only last year, one of the Navy’s top fleet commanders, Admiral Daryl Caudle, said the service should be embarrassed by its slow progress with the technology. Because although the theory behind their application carries weight, he believes the US still isn’t ready for prime time. Lasers might promise a lot, but they’re not yet a viable way to take out a missile. And at a symposium in 2024, Rear Admiral Fred Pyle told attendees the Navy had quote a tendency to overpromise and underdeliver.”
Skipping over the failure of the Army’s 300 kW Valkyrie laser system, which seemingly couldn’t hit milestones and was mothballed. “The Army decided the prototype would not be fielded to units. Instead, it’ll be used to inform the new joint laser weapon system. This laser initiative is a collaboration between the US Army and the US Navy. In theory, it’ll allow them to pull their research from past efforts to create a 150 kW system that could potentially be scaled up.”
“Similarly, in 2024, the US Air Force shut down its much vaunted SHIELD program, which had set out to introduce pod-mounted high energy lasers to fighter aircraft.”
“SHIELD had apparently been hit by many of these issues that we’ve already talked about. Technical difficulties, heat generation, harsh environments, all leading to claims that the technology still wasn’t developed enough for real world use. Of course, this doesn’t mean the whole concept of laser weaponry is being scrapped.”
“Despite the troublesome quirks of laser weapons, they’re in motion all over the world. The United States definitely isn’t the only global power taking part in this futuristic race.”
“You might remember our video about the UK’s Dragonfire laser. Like Songbow, Dragonfire has been designed to counter drones, missiles, and projectiles. And also like Songbow, it uses solid state fiber laser technology. The development of Dragonfire has been funded to the tune of million pounds.”
“In 2024, it successfully engaged an airborne target during an exercise. There at the Hebrides range in Scotland, the weapon took drones flying at 650 km/h down. Dragonfire is due to be fitted to a Royal Navy type 45 destroyer in 2027. Because of this, its exact range is still classified, but we do know that according to the official descriptions, the level of precision it offers is the equivalent of hitting a one pound coin that’s about the same size as a euro or a US quarter from a kilometer away. It’s capable of manifesting 50 kW of power.”
“And it’s a similar story with Israel’s Iron Beam, otherwise known as the laser dome, pioneered by the defense technology company Raphael. This is a 100 kilowatt high energy laser system. In Raphael’s glossy marketing, it claims that Iron Beam redefines modern warfare. And I mean, yeah, maybe it does. Reportedly, the Iron Beam is able to overcome the atmospheric challenges faced by other laser weapons. With lasers, the larger the beam, the more atmospheric interference you’re likely to face. The Iron Beam gets around this by shooting hundreds of small coinsized beams instead of one. These all converge on a target until it’s damaged or destroyed. It claims almost zero cost per interception, whatever that is. And significantly, it’s now up and running. In December 2025, the Iron Beam was officially deployed to the IDF after more than a decade in development. And in March 2026, social media footage seemed to show it in action intercepting a Hezbollah drone.”
“Israel may be the first, but it won’t be the last. Also hot on their heels are South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Japan. All are developing variations on the theme. And last year, China unveiled its own shipbourne weapon, the LY-1, a high energy laser weapon said to be an advanced testing.” China’s weapon systems seem to be long on hype and short on performance.
“Reading about high energy lasers, the term layered defense comes up a lot. At least for the time being, and probably for a long time to come, laser weaponry can’t be a one-stop shop solution. There’s simply too much to it and too many limitations to consider. And so, it will literally become just one weapon in a country’s arsenal. Systems like Songbow will sit alongside more proven interceptors so that if, for instance, sea conditions become rough, there’s still something a crew can do to deal with that pesky incoming drone.”
“Traditional projectiles might be fishily expensive, but they’re probably here to stay in some capacity.”
“As well as working alongside other defensive weapons, Songbow will also sit within the Navy’s laser family. If it’s successfully deployed, it’ll act as the big gun. But there are other smaller siblings there, too. Take ODIN, for example. It stands for Optical Dazzling Interdictor Navy. And at the time we’re writing this, there are seven ODIN systems on Navy ships. They’re there specifically to emit an infrared light that will scramble the optical sensors of a drone. Rather than shooting it down, they can effectively make it lose its way and crash.”
Helios, another laser defense system already deployed on the Arleigh Burke-class USS Prebel, successfully shot down Iranian drones this year.
“The global race to field directed energy systems is well and truly on, leading some to call this the age of laser weapons. It echoes past scrambles around stealth aircraft and precision missiles. Now, the question isn’t so much whether lasers will reach the maritime sphere, but how quickly countries can overcome the many hurdles to making this a success.”
Now the second death ray video. In my Black Friday/Prepper roundups, I’ve been including links for the IMALENT MS18, an insanely powerful flashlight that I don’t have a use case for, but which some people (say, ranchers or security guards for large complexes) might. Well, someone took its big brother, the IMALENT MS32, put a magnifier on it, and turned it into a death ray.
Now, as a death ray it’s inferior to a gun as a self-defense weapon, and about 1/100th as cost effective for lighting a fire than a cheap electric lighter. But it’s still pretty cool. Err, pretty hot, that is…
Something a little different than the usual Iran roundup: Two videos about Kharg Island, one an after-action report on a U.S. attack run, the other a description of what makes taking the island difficult.
The caveat for the after-action video, a recreation of an actual U.S. attack run, is that it’s done a breathless, overly-dramatic fashion, like something from Most Shocking. But the detailed, blow-by-blow account suggests it was taken from actual after-action reports.
Three B-1B Lancers carrying precision-guided bombs attempted the most surgically demanding strike of Operation Epic Fury — destroying Iranian military targets on Kharg Island without touching the crude oil infrastructure sitting meters away. Then the GPS jamming started, and the mission nearly came apart.
This video reconstructs the full tactical breakdown of the Kharg Island strike: how an Iranian GPS jammer degraded bomb accuracy toward the oil, how the F/A-18 Super Hornets sent to destroy it nearly got hit by friendly JDAMs when a deconfliction failure put them directly in the bomb fall line, and how one Mersad air defense commander’s final radio transmission turned inaccurate anti-aircraft fire into precision-guided shrapnel that bracketed B-1Bs mid-bombing run. We cover the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile shot that eliminated the SAM battery, the burning missile propellant creeping toward thirty million barrels of crude oil, the IRGC patrol boat sprint toward the supertanker loading channel, and the F/A-18 pilots who descended into accurate anti-aircraft fire from guns they couldn’t suppress to stop a mining operation with laser-guided GBU-54 JDAMs.
The breathless nature of the narration makes me suspect that certain aspects have been embellished for dramatic effect.
Next up: Simon Whistler discusses how difficult it will be for the American military to take and hold Kharg Island. Consider it the pessimist case against the operation.
“The value of Kharg Island is obvious. Control the island, and you could throttle Iran’s oil dependent economy. Capture the island intact, and another nation could make Iran do anything to get it back. Destroy it outright and Iran would transform from a powerful rogue nation into an economic afterthought. And that’s if we’re being generous.”
“The export facilities on Kharg Island are the most important site in one of Iran’s most important regions, meaning that the region is especially important to the Iranian military. This is a region with a well-developed civilian infrastructure, a large presence from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, and most likely the hidden weapons stockp match. Then there’s the island itself, a low-lying coral crop with an elevation of just 70m at its highest point. With a land area of roughly 20 square km, Kharg Island is basically flat, basically triangular in shape and surrounded by deep waters to enable the transit of oil tankers.”
Some pre-situated weapons and supply caches will likely survive any American bombardment.
“There’s no telling what the US will destroy and what it’ll fail to pick up on, but some of those mines and air defenses will survive, raising the possibility that they could claim the lives of US troops or shoot down vulnerable non-stalthy low-flying aircraft. That said, Kharg will not be an easy place to defend once US ground forces have established a foothold. Iranians on the island will either be left exposed or be forced to use refinery infrastructure as cover unless they allow themselves to be pushed into the island town where most residents live.”
“Iran’s objective is not victory in any conventional sense. Iran is able to accept the deaths of its political and military leaders and the destruction of its cities and mass casualties among its soldiers, paramilitaries, and civilian supporters. Iran’s focus is on regime survival, not the survival of the people who make up the regime, but the survival of the regime itself.” No, that’s the regime‘s goal. Most ordinary Iranians hate the regime’s guts.
He notes the difficulty of getting amphibious landing ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But America will likely have a screening force of destroyers and frigates in addition to overwhelming air superiority, and Iran probably has very little in the way of missiles that can reach across the strait, at night, without real air assets to spot and paint the target, in the face of American air and naval superiority. Given America and Israel’s attacks on their sensor and communication infrastructure, I also doubt the Iranian military is capable of efficient coordination and dissemination of any real-time information they may be receiving from Russian or Chinese satellites.
He’s still right that amphibious and aerial invasions are exceptionally difficult and fraught with peril.
But I believe there are multiple places where Whistler is unduly pessimistic about such an operation.
First and foremost, the military assets discussed in the media are not necessarily the assets such an operation would be limited to. Remember how the very public news of B-2s in route to Diego Garcia was a ruse to cover the fact that the real B-2 force was already headed to the target in the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It’s entirely possible (even probable) that America already has assault assets in theater that media outlets don’t know about.
Some debatable assertions: “Iranian forces are nothing if not creative, and they are highly motivated to accept risk to their own lives in order to deliver damage to an adversary.” And “The first problem that the US would have to account for is the Iranian ground forces. Combination of roughly 350,000 soldiers in the Iranian army, about 150,000 soldiers across the ground forces of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and another several hundred thousand paramilitary fighters of the Basij Resistance Force.” Whistler suggests virtues not necessarily in evidence for Iran’s forces. The IRCG has certainly shown itself highly motivated when it comes to launching terror rockets, supporting insurgencies, or slaughtering civilians, but not so much when it comes to an actual toe-to-toe fight against a real military, a domain in which they have zero experience or demonstrated competency. Likewise, there’s little evidence that Iranian military regulars are all that keen to die for the regime. They also did not notably distinguish themselves in the long, bloody slog of the Iran-Iraq War, a stalemate against an Iraqi military that the United States-led coalition would quickly and comprehensively dismantle in the Gulf War a few years later. And back then, Iran had some relatively modern air power. Likewise the Basij seem well equipped to beat defenseless women for immodesty, but I rather strongly suspect the overwhelming majority will cut and run when faced with trained soldiers who can fire back.
If America successfully takes Kharg Island, it will be impossible for Iranian forces to get ships across from the mainland to retake it in the teeth of overwhelming American air power, even if they try crossing at night.
Likewise, the difficulty in taking the island without damaging the critical oil infrastructure that makes it worth taking may cause Iran to avoid their usual inaccurate missile barrages. And Iranian forces will likely find it difficult to set up missile, artillery and drone systems on the coastline under withering American and Israeli attack.
“The American public is not willing to accept the loss of American troops, and it is not willing to accept long-term or severe economic pain just to see the Islamic Republic overthrown.” This assertion is not necessarily true. The American public can certainly be fickle, but thus far Astroturf protests against the war have modest and populated with the usual foreign-funded, elderly white lefty idiots. Americans over a certain age remember the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and may feel eliminating one of they key sources of jihad terror worldwide for good worth the cost. Also, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, U.S. military and civilian leadership seems 100% dedicated to absolute victory.
Whistler seems to think that all of Iran’s military forces will fight with the same fanaticism of Imperial Japanese troops on Iwo Jima. Given how badly the regular armies of Muslim nations have fought against first world armies in standup fights, as opposed to fanatical insurgencies running year-long campaigns of attrition, I rather strongly suspect he’s mistaken.
Lots of interesting military news not specific to Iran or Ukraine pops up on YouTube that doesn’t quite rise to the level of a separate post. So here’s a tab-clearing video roundup.
Simon Whistler rounds up 2025 conflicts that we’re not paying much attention to.
In order covered, they are:
The Sahel’s Growing Islamist Insurgency (which I have covered off and on since 2019)
Latin America’s Organized Crime Crisis
Failure of Colombia’s ‘Total Peace’ Leads to Widespread Conflict
Nigeria’s Overlapping Conflicts
The Anglophone Crisis In Cameroon
Cabo Delgado’s Islamic State Insurgency (in Mozambique)
Haiti’s Meltdown
The Congo’s Proxy War
The Amhara Insurgency (in Ethiopia)
The Papua Conflict is the Deadliest War You’ve Never Heard Of (in Indonesia)
Sudan Suffers in Silence
Some of these I’ve covered, but several are new to me as well…
Habitual Linecrosser explains how modern jamming actually works.
He goes into a great deal of detail on different systems, ranges, wavelengths, radar locks, etc. Plus a look at Venezuela operation. If you’re interested, watch the whole thing.
Lots of people (myself included) have criticized the Pentagon over not doing enough to prepare for a possible war with China. One thing they are doing that’s flown under the radar: Spending $10 billion to refurbish long abandoned World War II airbases on the “second island chain.”
Those islands are:
Guam
Tinian
Yap
Palau
Kwajalein
Those familiar with the Pacific theater in World War II will remember the battles against Imperial Japan for control of those islands (save Yap, which was bypassed). The battle for Palau was an especially deadly and bitter struggle for American troops that produced eight Medal of Honor recipients.
China, of course, isn’t taking this lying down, and Chinese “businessmen” have been leasing land next to American installations of many of the islands, while China refurbishes airbases on islands like Kiribati.
There are multiple rumors floating around about Schrodinger’s Ayatollah, who still hasn’t been seen in public since the initial strikes. The first is that he shuffled off his mortal aba in the airstrike that killed his father Ayatollah Senior and most of Iran’s ruling council.
“We know the new so-called not-so-supreme leader is wounded and likely disfigured,” Hegseth said in a press briefing on Friday, March 13. “He put out a statement yesterday. A weak one, actually, but there was no voice and there was no video. It was a written statement.”
“Iran has plenty of cameras and plenty of voice recorders,” Hegseth added. “Why a written statement? I think you know why. … He’s scared, he’s injured, he’s on the run and he lacks legitimacy.”
Here’s the obligatory Simon Whistler video to sort through the possibilities.
“According to Iranian leaders, he’s alive and well. According to US defense leaders, he’s quote wounded and likefully disfigured. And as regional experts and conflict observers have recently pointed out, he might already be in a coma or even dead.”
“One week after he was elevated to rule Iran, the younger Khamenei hasn’t been seen and he hasn’t been heard, raising the distinct possibility that the world and even the people of Iran don’t actually know who’s in charge of Iran’s war effort.”
“A longtime adviser and money man who had assisted his father for decades, Motjaba was already rumored not to be on his father’s short list for succession even before the current war with the US and Israel began. Instead, Motjaba was an avatar of some of Iran’s most hardline fighting factions. The internal repression forces known as the Basij, which Motjaba essentially controlled himself, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, where he’d been close with the deceased General Qasem Soleimani and his successor Hossein Taeb.”
“Motjaba was widely understood to be much more extreme than his father, even in his open support of Iranian nuclear weapons, which his father had always publicly denied pursuing. Motjaba had spent years in Iran building a loyal support network, angling to take over despite his father’s wishes, and along with his father, Motjaba’s wife, his mother, and one of his sons were all reported killed in the early waves of US and Israeli bombing.”
“Claims from Israeli intelligence as well as anonymous Iranian officials speaking to the global press confirmed that Motjaba is in significantly worse shape than the Iranian regime will acknowledge.”
Trump: “I hear he’s not alive.”
Back to Whistler: “We can observe a convergence of analysis from the US, Israel, purported Iranian insiders, Iranian opposition sources, and others on the out-abouts. What’s probably true here? While it’s more likely than not that Motjaba Khamenei is alive in some form, most accounts on his whereabouts and status have converged on the idea that he’s in bad shape, isolated, and even if he is alert, he probably isn’t the person calling the shots in Iran on a daily basis.”
“If Motjaba isn’t calling the shots, then who is?”
“The answer may be a facet of the groups that helped elevate him to the leadership. The Revolutionary Guard, the Basij Paramilitaries, and Iran’s hardline factions.”
“It’s not clear that those leaders can exert direct control over the Iranian military. Iran has already shifted into a wartime strategy called mosaic defense. An approach that’s meant to make the country more resilient to decapitation strikes and command and control destruction than it otherwise would be.”
“In a mosaic defense, Iran essentially fractures into decentralized individually controlled military units, each given control of certain regions, certain paramilitary allies, and certain warfighting assets. Those units have their broad instructions from the top. But after that, they’re essentially on their own.” A mosaic defense can be effective in running a decentralized insurgency, but is a lot less useful when you’re trying to defend your country against two of the world’s most powerful and technologically sophisticated militaries.
“On the one hand, that’s helpful in ensuring that Iran’s military can still function when people like the Supreme Leader are killed. But on the other hand, it’s very difficult to reign those mosaic forces back in once they’ve been given the order to decentralize.”
“Already, Iranian leaders have suggested that some of Iran’s actions, like the pervasive strikes on Gulf Energy infrastructure, may have been due to mosaic forces making their own decisions about how to handle the war. With a hardline supreme leader legitimizing the commands and the power of Iran’s revolutionary guard and Basij, there’s a real risk that those forces will only become less responsive to more moderate civil leaders.” Yeah, “moderate civil leaders” isn’t exactly what anyone thinks of when it comes to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Kharg Islands/Marines/Hormuz stuff snipped.
I think the Babylon Bee nicely captures the consensus about Mojtaba: “‘It’s Just A Flesh Wound!‘ Says Legless Torso Of Iranian Ayatollah.”
But beyond dead, coma, and crippled, another possibility about MiniMe Khamenei has recently surfaced, namely that he might be a prancing Nancy Boy.
President Trump was stunned to learn last week that US intelligence indicates new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay — and that his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, feared his suitability to rule the Islamic Republic for that reason, The Post can reveal.
Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources.
Others in the room also found it “hilarious” and joined the president’s reaction, while one senior intelligence official “has not stopped laughing about it for days,” said one person familiar with the briefing.
The shocking claim was described to The Post by two intelligence community officials and a third person close to the White House.
Of course, all this could merely be scurrilous rumor or psychological warfare aimed at the regime. The idea that Mojtaba enjoys having burly men pound his poop-chute would obviously radically reduce his support among the notoriously anti-gay power circles of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Supreme Leader doing the same things that get others hung from cranes might make regime figures less likely to follow his orders, especially if they start suspecting they’re being issued from inside a strapless lavender evening gown.
There is another possibility: Like Liberace and Oscar Wilde, Mojtaba Khamenei could be both gay and dead…
The more the Islamic Republic of Iran lashes out at other countries in the region, the more obvious it is that eliminating the regime and its nuclear ambitions was the right call. I once read a quote that if Hitler had possessed nuclear weapons in the in his bunker as the end drew near, he surely would have used him. That’s the sort of nihilistic death-spasm we’re seeing from the Iranian regime.
Some news:
U.S. submarine torpedoes Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off Sri Lanka:
Note that secretary of defense Pete Hegseth stated that we sunk the IRIS Shahid Soleimani, but the video he showed was that Suchomimus posted, which is clearly not a Soleimani-class ship with its distinctive duel prow. There’s obviously some confusion here. But maybe Hegseth just mixed up the videos, as this CENTCOM tweet des seem to show stills from a strike on a Soleimani-class ship.
U.S. forces have struck or sunk to the bottom of the ocean more than 20 ships from the Iranian regime. Last night, CENTCOM added a Soleimani-class warship to the list. pic.twitter.com/KgW8cS726P
With complete American/Israeli air superiority over Iran, the B-52 has joined the fight:
Also, F-22 Raptors have been stationed in Israel, possibly setting the stage for the greatest Habitual Linecrosser video ever.
There are conflicting reports on whether Kurdish rebel forces have launched a ground invasion into Iran or not. Kurdish sources seem to be denying it. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re infiltrating units.
“A citizen sent a video to IranWire, reporting several consecutive explosions in the city of Baneh. The United States and Israel extensively targeted some positions of the Islamic Republic in the city of Baneh today.” Location of Baneh? Kurdistan province.
Simon Whistler explains how Russia and China are going to do “jack” and “squat” to Iran. Or, more specifically, all the moral support you can pack into a roadside IED.
Russia is too busy with its quagmire in Ukraine, and China gets more oil from the Persian Gulf states Iran has been drone and missile attacking than from Iran.
“In a way, Russia and China have delivered Iran the ultimate geopolitical insult. They don’t hate Iran. They aren’t condemning Iran, but at the end of the day, they just don’t really care that much. After decades of loyal partnership, and recent years where Iran has clearly believed that its relationships with China and Russia were growing far deeper, Iran has been discarded. It’s too inconvenient to defend. It isn’t valuable enough to save. And for Moscow and for Beijing, it’ll be easy enough to forget.”
OK, that’s the news I’ve scraped today. If there’s something significant you think I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments.
If it wasn’t clear from yesterday’s roundup, it appears that a whole lot of Islamic Republic of Iran leaders were physically meeting at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bunker in Tehran when the successful decapitation strike was carried out as part of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion. The operations are still ongoing, and here are some news updates.
“‘All’ of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are ‘probably dead’ following US-Israeli strikes.”
Mick Mulvaney, former Trump OMB head and Chief of Staff: “A high risk, high reward type of operation.”
A “once in a lifetime opportunity” to both end the nuclear program and effect regime change. “All the [Iranian] senior leadership gathered together at one place at one time.”
The daylight attack must have meant we had really solid intel on the regime meeting. Most of our Middle East strikes happen at night during a new moon. “An opportunity they simply couldn’t pass up.”
“All of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are probably dead as well.”
“The chances of getting a pro-Western, pro-American regime in Iran were as high as it ever was going to be.”
John Bolton was lamenting that these actions weren’t taken six or seven years ago, but the situation on the ground now is very different. “Everything has to come together at the same time for this to work.”
“This can’t be a forever war.”
Taking out the mullahs is “a step toward peace.”
New Guy steps into the leadership crosshairs. “Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref informed officials of plans to have him take charge of the nation during wartime, according to a report from the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) published on social media late Saturday night. There was no explicit note of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ability to carry out presidential duties.”
Simon Whistler covers the strikes:
Much of this covers information included here yesterday, but here are a few new tidbits.
Whistler states Iran is claiming they hit Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. LiveUAMap shows a strike against Prince Sultan Air Base, which is over a 100 miles from Riyadh. I mean, they’re both in central Saudi Arabia, but, eh.
In Yemen, Houthis threaten retaliation. Nothing yet.
The gulf states are plenty pissed at Iran tossing drones and missiles at them.
Russia issued a single proforma condemnation of U.S. attacks. China, on the other hand, hasn’t even done that.
A lot of Chinese MilTech deals were supposedly in the works when things kicked off, but it looks like very little (if any) actually made it to Iran.
Suchomimus video the first:
“It is quite telling that [Khamenei]’s death is being celebrated on the streets.”
Khamenei was likely killed in the opening strike. “A few sources are now saying it was Israel that hit this.”
“Iran isn’t showing any signs of giving up. Well, these could just be the last temper tantrum of the finished regime. The generals and remaining politicians lashing out knowing their time is over and that a surrender is inevitable and just trying to inflict damage.”
Suchomimus sees regime change as unlikely without “boots on the ground.”
Suchomimus video the second, which is all damage assessment:
One Iranian frigate hit, but two more showing no signs of damage.
Bandar Abbas radar site hit. Bandar Abbas is the port city directly north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Four MiG-29 fighters destroyed out of 30 in service.
Israel took out a Basij installation in northern Tehran, they being the hated Iranian religious police. The video shows four large buildings all exploding in a matter of seconds. “Iran’s air defense is completely ineffective here.”
Iran’s counterstrikes have had some limited success. In Kuwait “Ali al-Salim air base was hit.” The image shows smoke rising up from three different points, one evidently from a fuel storage strike. “One of Iran’s most successful strikes to date.” Plus a car park and a support facility.
Iran also hit Erbil air base in Iraq, where a large fire was seen burning. No information yet on what was hit.
Iran also hit Al-Udeid air base in Qatar. “This is the largest American base in the Middle East.” Videos show Patriot intercepting Iranian vehicles, but also one miss and one Patriot interceptor wandering off course and hitting the ground.
I see Tomahawks, F-18s and F-35s, and a lot of Iranian targets going boom. And other American assets are poised to join the action:
B-2s will likely show up tonight, making direct attacks on key targets in a way no other platform can. Yes this could include MOPs, but also lots of JDAMs against less fortified targets. They can achieve massive effects in a single sortie. One B-2 can carry 80 500lb JDAMs. Entire… pic.twitter.com/d0ztfmHYVN
TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.
Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being…
🚫Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE. ✅The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close. The Lincoln continues to launch aircraft in support of CENTCOM’s relentless campaign to defend the American people by… pic.twitter.com/AjaeHMemtA
Plus President Trump was stating that Iranian retaliation was less than expected.
Also this: “Imagery circulating points to Iranian attacks in the vicinity of France’s naval base in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.” In other news, there’s a French naval base in Abu Dhabi…
Beware of Astroturf protesters. “CCP-Linked NGO Network Prepares “Emergency Protests” In US After Trump’s Iran Strikes Jeopardize Oil Flows To China.”
Planned demonstrations branded “Hands Off Iran” or “Stop The War On Iran” are scheduled to take place this afternoon in major cities across the U.S. From New York to Los Angeles, left-wing organizers have circulated digital flyers, coordinated social media blasts, and activated email lists urging supporters to mobilize within hours of the announcement. This activation alert for the protest-industrial complex occurred shortly after the Department of War’s “Operation Epic Furry” began in Iran.
To the average person, this afternoon’s protests may look like a groundswell of outrage over the U.S. strikes on Iran, especially given that the Trump administration campaigned on no new foreign wars. But the speed, uniform messaging, and coordinated national footprint suggest something highly more organized – and familiar for readers, as we’ve diligently followed the activities of the protest-industrial complex.
This is the same mobilization network that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to move tens of thousands of social justice warriors into the streets in under 12 hours.
Earlier this year, that same protest infrastructure powered nationwide pro-Maduro demonstrations almost immediately after developments in Venezuela made national headlines. In the months prior, overlapping coalitions were instrumental in organizing the anti-Israel encampments at Columbia University and other campuses, as well as anti-ICE demonstrations in Los Angeles and other sanctuary cities. The causes shift. The slogans change. The logistical infrastructure – or the machine that makes this spark – remains the same.
What we are witnessing is not a loose collection of anti-war activists or 1970s-style hippies responding independently to global events. It is a coordinated ecosystem of dark-money funded nonprofits, advocacy groups, campus organizations, and ideological networks that can rapidly repurpose whatever geopolitical flashpoint dominates the news cycle. From the George Floyd riots to pro-Palestine protests to anti-Tesla protests to anti-Trump protests and anti-Elon Musk protests to anti-DOGE protests to anti-ICE protests/riots, these movements are not dedicated to a single issue. They are part of omni-cause mobilizers, sowing chaos deep within the nation’s core.
Whether the banner reads “Free Palestine,” “Hands Off Venezuela,” “Abolish ICE,” or now “Hands Off Iran,” the same names frequently appear on sponsorship lists. The same fiscal sponsors provide infrastructure. The same activist pipelines appear.
This brings us to far-left billionaire Neville Roy Singham, whom The New York Times recently described as “known as a socialist benefactor of far-left causes” and as someone who “works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.”
Singham’s network, shortly after Operation Epic Furry began, announced on X “New York City Emergency Protest” to “Stop The war On Iran.”
“The U.S. and Israel are carrying out an unprovoked, illegal bombing campaign on Iran. This war serves no one but a tiny elite and oil executives and is a continuation of more than two years of genocide in Palestine and US-Israeli aggressions throught the region,” the People’s Forum, a Manhattan far-left non-profit also linked to Singham, wrote on X.
Other left-wing groups on the flyer tied to Singham’s network include the ANSWER Coalition and CODEPINK. Also on the list are the Democratic Socialists of America, American Muslims for Palestine, the National Iranian American Council, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Black Alliance for Peace, and 50501.
November 4, 1979 — almost 47 years ago — Iran seized the American embassy in Tehran and held its staff hostage. Ever since then, American presidents have struggled with what to do.
Jimmy Carter temporized for many months, even as ABC’s newly created Nightline — a nighttime news show created specially to cover the hostage crisis — opened every night with “America held hostage, day XXX.” His wife, First Lady Rosalynn Carter, finally prodded him to do something. The “something” turned out to be a shambolic rescue mission that ended in disaster.
President Reagan intimidated the mullahs a bit, but never seriously retaliated for the Beirut barracks bombing that killed over 200 Marines along with over a score of other service personnel. George H.W. Bush invaded Iraq but left the mullahs largely alone. Bill Clinton did nothing of substance. George W. Bush had a chance to bring the Iranians to heel after the conquest of Iraq, but inexplicably failed to press his advantage. Barack Obama was, basically, complicit in their nuclear program, to the point of famously sending them pallets of cash totaling over a billion dollars.
President Trump, on the other hand, killed General Soleimani and told other Iranian leaders that they could be next. And now they are next.
So what have we learned, and what’s likely to happen in the future?
Well, first, with the capture of Maduro and now this, we’ve learned that our military can do things no one else can. We seized a leader of a hostile nation from his largest military base and brought him to custody without losing a single American life. Now we’ve killed the single biggest threat to American interests in the Mideast, along with much of his senior leadership, again without losing a single American life.
Why didn’t we do this before? And why could we do it now? The reason we can do it now is mostly leadership. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth quickly prioritized precision and lethality in the military; President Trump was willing to use the military in ways prior presidents were not.
Why didn’t we do this before? Part of that is because the foreign policy establishment, like the domestic policy establishment, doesn’t exist to solve problems. It exists to manage those problems in ways that keep its members cushily employed. To, in Myres McDougal’s words, “maintain tensions at a level short of unacceptable violence.”
Trump, on the other hand, wants to solve things, even if it involves inflicting unacceptable violence on the enemy. Also, he regards our enemies as actual enemies, not as “foreign colleagues” or “partners in peace.” To quote author Keith Laumer, “there’s nothing as peaceful as a dead troublemaker.” Khamenei is now peaceful.
In fact, Trump’s approach across the board, which has brought him success after success in his first 13 months back in office, is to solve problems the way the guys in the bar say they would do it. Too much illegal immigration? Close the border and deport the illegals. Problems with Iran? Kill their leaders and encourage a revolution. Venezuela shipping drugs and gangs to the U.S.? Capture their leader and encourage his successor to cooperate or share his fate. You can just do things.
The thing is, though, that there’s a subtlety in this approach. Just doing things turns out to work. But if you take a step back from these actions of Trump’s, the big picture shows a pretty coherent strategy. Trump wants to weaken China without going to war with China. He has now cut off two major suppliers of oil to the PRC, which produces hardly any oil of its own. (It’s worse than that, because China wasn’t paying for that oil with dollars, and now it will need dollars to buy oil elsewhere.) That applies a squeeze to an already squeezed CCP, and will make Xi’s position, domestically and internationally, weaker. Also the military excellence recently displayed has to inspire second, third, and fourth thoughts about invading Taiwan.
Trump’s tactics typically have two characteristics: He goes after his opponents’ source of sustenance (usually that means money, but not always) and he accomplishes more than one thing at a time. In neutralizing Iran, Trump accomplishes a lot of things. First, of course, he neutralizes a major hostile regional threat.
But second, he cuts the ground out from under what’s left of Hamas and Hezbollah. He also shuts off the pipeline of cash that was being used to bribe politicians and journalists in Europe (the Iranians have basically admitted that they do that) and support various NGOs and the like that serve anti-American and anti-Israeli ends. Iran has been a major sponsor of terrorism around the world; that will end.
With Iran gone (and India, thanks to tariffs, eager to be on our team) the threat of the BRICS has been sharply reduced. Brazil under Lula isn’t friendly, but isn’t a power house. Russia and China don’t like us but China needs oil and Russia is broke and mired in an endless and ruinous war of its own devising.
With Iranians free to say what they think of the mullahs’ regime, he also delegitimizes the left’s narrative that fundamentalist Islam somehow has some sort of anti-colonial virtue. In fact, the mullahs ran Iran as a Persian colony of an Arab ideology. The Iranian public is well aware of this, and will be saying that a lot.
And if he’s able to see a new pro-American government in Iran (distinctly likely) we’ll have a regional ally that will encourage the Arab states, currently friendly to us and Israel out of fear of Iran, to remain friendly to us and Israel out of a different sort of fear of Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims he’s alive and in charge:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is alive, stating this morning on state-run television that the Interim Leadership Council is now operational and has assumed constitutional control of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pezeshkian adds that, “We will continue the path of the Leader… pic.twitter.com/QIhDTeRxub
Power struggle between him and Mohammad Reza Aref, or just confusion?
Iranian foreign minister is suggesting that no one is actually in charge, that the chain of command has broken down and the military is just sort of acting on general vibes:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:
What happened in Oman was not our choice.
We have already told our Armed Forces to be careful about the targets they choose.
Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general… pic.twitter.com/g0l9Te2HNa
Which is not what you want to hear less than 48 hours into a shooting war…
Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah heir apparent, is apparently dead as well.
Iranian media: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been discussed as one of the potential successors, has been eliminated. pic.twitter.com/6Fy8mkHe47
That four building complex previously described as Basij headquarters is here described as “Sarallah Headquarters” or “security crisis management command center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran”:
Israeli Air Force strikes that hit Tehran this morning targeted a complex the IDF described as the “headquarters of the terror regime.”
Now technically, the Basij is a subset of the IRGC, so that may be where the confusion comes in. Or the complex could be both. Google Maps isn’t helping me out here…
More of Iran’s classic aircraft destroyed:
Video published this morning by the Israeli Air Force showing the targeting and destruction of a two awaiting to takeoff F-4 Phantom IIs and an F-5 Tiger II with the Iranian Air Force, during strikes on Tabriz Air Base in the East Azerbaijan Province on Northwestern Iran. pic.twitter.com/n8NkNhGjle
Despite claims of not being involved, UK fighters are reportedly flying CAP over the Persian Gulf:
British Royal Air Force Typhoons officially started flying combat air patrols over the Persian Gulf today, have already shot down multiple Iranian drones headed towards Qatar. pic.twitter.com/hQ7WOiZYjr
"Iran’s chief of army staff and defense minister were killed in an airstrike targeting a meeting of the country’s defense council, Iranian state television reported Sunday.
Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were…
“Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were killed at the meeting alongside the head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and security adviser Ali Shamkhani.”
❗️Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader's office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen… pic.twitter.com/6ptzq6r06Q
“Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader’s office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen Darreh Baghi, police intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezaeian, Armed Forces operations planning chief Bahram Hosseini Motlaq, and Armed Forces logistics chief Hasanali Tajik.”
More regime buildings go boom:
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence (VAJA/Vezarat-e Ettela'at Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran) has been struck in central Tehran. #Iranpic.twitter.com/aQjeTwoed4
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that nine Iranian naval ships have been sunk as part of combat operations against Iran.
“I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important,” Trump wrote in a post on X, adding that Iran’s naval headquarters has been “largely destroyed” in a different attack.
“We are going after the rest — They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!” Trump wrote.
U.S. Central Command officials said earlier Sunday that an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette was struck by U.S. forces at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury.
“The ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier,” the statement reads. “As the president said, members of Iran’s armed forces, IRGC and police ‘must lay down your weapons.’ Abandon ship.”
❗️A suspected strike has hit the British RAF Akrotiri base in Limassol, Cyprus, with a loud explosion heard in the area, alarms sounding at the base, and aircraft scrambled, Israeli Channel 14 journalist Hallel Bitton Rosen reported. #Iranpic.twitter.com/xB6mvhrbFt
Result: Craven jihad apologist Keir Starmer grows something vaguely resembling a spine and gives the U.S. permission to use Cyprus base for “defensive purposes.” With so many Middle East bases to chose from, I’m not sure the US actually has any assets they can usefully deploy there, but still.
Clarification: Here Starmer makes clear that “defensive purposes” includes letting American assets use British bases, including those in the Persian Gulf, to hunt Iranian missile launch sites and storage facilities:
One problem the Navy has in a potential fight with China is that its carrier strike groups would need to be dangerously close to the Chinese mainland to launch strike aircraft close enough for them to return. The MQ-25 Stingray is designed to solve that problem.
“This is the Boeing MQ-25 Stingray. It is the world’s first operational, carrier-based unmanned aircraft.”
“Despite looking like a futuristic stealth bomber, its job isn’t to bomb or dog fight. Its job is a bit boring. It’s a flying gas station.”
“In the Pacific theater, the distances between safe bases and potential combat zones are measured in thousands of kilometers. The Pacific Ocean is really big. Yet, modern carrier fighters like the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the F-35C actually have shorter combat radiuses than the old Cold War workhorses like the A-6 Intruder.”
“To fix this, the Navy has been forced to use its own fighters as improvised tankers. Currently, somewhere between 20 and 30% of all Super Hornet sorties are just refueling missions. They hang extra fuel tanks on the wings and fly out just to top off their friends. This is kind of like buying a fleet of high-end Ferraris and then using a third of them to deliver Uber Eats. It works, yes, but it is an incredibly stupid use of money and airframe life.”
“The MQ-25 is designed to stop that waste by spending billions of dollars. It can launch from the carrier and deliver between 14,000 and 16,000 lb of fuel to other aircraft 500 nautical miles away. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly 2,400 gallons. That’s enough gas to fill up about 160 family cars.”
“If you’re a carrier-based drone with that kind of range and internal volume, you don’t have to fill it with gas. You could fill it with radar arrays. You could fill it with sensor packages or one day you could indeed fill it with stealthy anti-ship missiles.”
The Intruder could “strike targets hundreds of miles away and loiter for hours, keeping the aircraft carrier itself well out of harm’s way. But those aircraft are gone. They were retired years ago, leaving the modern air carrier deck dominated by the F/A-18 Super Hornet and the F-35C. Now, these are fantastic high-tech multiroll fighters. But compared to their ancestors, they’ve got short legs. Their unrefueled combat radius is significantly tighter.”
“Potential adversaries, specifically China, have spent the last 20 years developing long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles. These are weapons designed to hunt carriers, and they can hit targets from well over a thousand km away. So, here is the problem the Navy is facing. If you put a US carrier in the Philippine Sea and draw a circle representing how far its jets can fly without refueling, there is a very good chance that that circle doesn’t even touch the Chinese mainland. But if you draw a circle for the range of China’s land-based missiles, it easily encompasses the carrier, which is not brilliant news for the US Navy.”
“The obvious solution here is aerial refueling. If you can gas up the fighters in midair, you can extend their range and the carrier can stay safe.”
The Stingray started out as an unmanned stealth bomber program, the Northrup Grumman X-47B, but got repurposed as a duller but badly needed tanker. Boeing got the revised contract.
“Yet, when Boeing unveiled their design, it didn’t look like a flying fuel truck. With its blended fuselage, flush air intake that hides the engine fan blades, and a distinct V-tail, the Stingray looks suspiciously like the stealth drone that the Navy said it didn’t want. Defense analysts, including those at The War Zone, have pointed out lingering questions about the origins of this shape. The strong implication there is that Boeing had already done the heavy lifting on a stealthy U-class design, and rather than just throwing it away, they essentially repurposed it. They gave the Navy a gas station, but they disguised it as half a stealth bomber.”
“The MQ-25 is a beast. It’s 51 feet long. That’s roughly the length of a standard city bus. Its wingspan is 75 feet, which is massive for a carrier deck aircraft. To fit into the ship’s garage, the hanger deck, the wing tips fold up, which means it’s just 31 feet across. Powering this frame is a single Rolls-Royce AE307N turbo fan,” a workhorse commercial engine.
“The Navy’s objective for the Stingrays to offload 14 to 16,000lb of fuel at a range of 500 nautical miles. To put that in perspective, that’s about 2,400 gallons of jet fuel.”
It’s stealthy, but not that stealthy, carrying fuel pods under its wings.
“The actual tanking part of the drone is surprisingly old school. Under the wing, the MQ-25 carries the Cobham buddy store refueling pod, the exact same hardware used on the Super Hornets today. It uses a hose and drogue system. The drone unreels a hose with a basket on the end and the receiver pilot plugs their probe into it.”
“The MQ-25 has no rear-facing camera or proximity sensors dedicated to the refueling basket. It doesn’t see you approaching. Just like with a human flown tanker, the robot flies a steady line, and it relies entirely on the skill of the human pilot in the fighter jet to plug in.”
“On the carrier, the Stingray is managed via the unmanned carrier aviation mission control system or UMCS. The Navy has even installed a dedicated room aboard the USS George H. W. Bush called the Unmanned Air Warfare Center, or UAWC. Inside, air vehicle operators sit at consoles. They don’t have a stick and rudder. Instead, they pre-program the mission with way points, refueling tracks, and contingencies. Once the drone launches, it is largely autonomous. It executes the plan on its own.”
It’s positioned and launched off the deck of the carrier using a hand-held device.
Aerial refueling with it was successfully tested in 2021.
“As of 2025, the official program of record calls for the Navy to buy 76 Stingrays, 67 operational aircraft, and nine for testing and development. The total price tag for this fleet is estimated at roughly $15.9 billion. Doing the maths, that works out to an acquisition cost of around $209 million per aircraft, a number that includes its share of the research and development costs.”
“Originally, the Navy hoped to have production representative aircraft flying by 2022. Nope.”
“The schedule has slipped repeatedly.”
“By late 2025, reports confirmed that the first flight of the Navy’s production representative jet had slipped again into early 2026, as the team wrestled with structural tests and software certification. The target for actual combat readiness is now listed vaguely as by the end of fiscal year 2027.”
“To try and clear the bottleneck, Boeing opened a new $200 million dedicated facility at St. Louis airport in 2024 designed specifically to churn out these drones.”
Critics argue for cheaper alternatives. “Supporters counter that the fuel is just the appetizer. They argue the MQ-25 is a pathfinder. Its real value isn’t just in gallons delivered, but in teaching the Navy how to integrate unmanned aircraft into the carrier airwing at scale. It is the entry fee for the future of naval warfare.”
“If you talk to naval strategists and especially, if you look at what analysts are whispering about it, it is very clear that tanker is kind of just the beginning here. The most immediate impact is range. The Royal Aeronautical Society notes that by offloading 15,000 lb of fuel at 500 nautical miles from the carrier, the MQ-25 effectively doubles the combat radius of the airwing. This is the big metric that Chinese military planners are reportedly getting quite worried about.”
“The fighters can top up their tanks deep in the combat zone, allowing them to strike targets that were previously untouchable, while the carrier stays hundreds of miles further back in safety.”
“But the Stingray is a big aircraft with a lot of internal volume and long endurance, which makes it perfect for a secondary role, the sensor truck. The Navy’s own documents explicitly list intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or ISR, as a secondary mission.”
“Because it doesn’t need a cockpit or life support, there’s plenty of room inside for radar arrays, electronic warfare jammers, or heavy communications gear. Analysts envision the Stingray acting as a cell tower in the sky, orbiting silently for hours, linking manned fighters, ships, and other drones into a single network, relaying data back to the fleet while the fighters focus on the fighting.”
“Then there’s the spicy option, the missile truck. In 2024, photos surfaced of an MQ-25 model at a trade show. It wasn’t just carrying fuel pots. Under its wings were two massive AGM 158C LRASM stealth anti-ship missiles. And under its nose was a new sensor ball.”
“While the Navy hasn’t officially committed to this armed Stingray configuration yet, the logic is pretty seductive. If you have a drone that can fly long distances and has low observable shaping, why not use it to launch long-range missiles? It could allow the carrier to launch salvos of stealthy anti-ship weapons from well outside the range of enemy defenses, turning the humble tanker into a lethal standoff striker.” While true, the already-in-service MQ-9 Reaper has a 1,000 nautical mile range.
“Navy leaders are already talking about a future, perhaps by 2040, where up to 60% of the carrier airwing is unmanned. The Stingray along with the mission control infrastructure UAWC being built into carriers right now is the foundation for that future.”
My concern is that each of these is basically refueling one F/A-18 or F-35 if you’re using them to double the strike range; that’s a lot of tail to extend the teeth, especially since they’re taking up additional carrier hanger space. A lot of the same benefit for the China scenario can be achieved by flying longer range, less stealthy ground-based refueling aircraft (like the KC-46 Pegasus) out of U.S. airbases at Luzon or Okinawa. Of course, both of those (and other theater airbases) might be hit with Chinese missiles in a conflict.
But the sensor and long-range strike configurations are intriguing…
Uncle Sam assembles another big stick for Iran, the radical leftwing networks in Minnesota continue to get exposed, silver shatters, two state Democrats get clipped in separate forgery cases, the rise of the Amelia memes, Microsoft update breaks everything (again), and are malls actually reviving?
And Neville Roy Singham’s fingerprints are visible everywhere.
It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
As of right this moment, America hasn’t gone kinetic on the Mullahs yet, but we’re assembling an awful big stick.
USS Abraham Lincoln has gone dark, with no transponder or communication, signaling possible preparation for action against Iran.
A third US carrier strike group, USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), is moving into the Middle East theater.
Snip.
Some very interesting developments in the last 48 hours indicate something big is about to happen.
The EU all of a sudden has decided the next thing on their agenda is to declare the IRGC a terrorist group. Curious timing, that.
Minnesota agitators, including elected officials, have been organizing efforts to stalk, harass, and even hunt ICE agents in a Signal group chat that was infiltrated by Cam Higby and others.
It has been insane looking at the messages and the actual people involved.
And now DataRepublican has the donor list … you know, the people actually paying to make sure this all happens.
DataRepublican has also helpfully linked to their social media profiles.
You can download he data yourself. And DataRepublican has already turned in all the captured information to the Feds…
This is the story of how Minnesota became a political laboratory—first for the 2020 George Floyd protests, then for a sustained campaign against federal immigration enforcement. The players are the same. The money flows through familiar channels. And the strategy, according to those who designed it, was always meant to be replicated.
Snip.
Understanding how The People’s Forum operates requires following the money. And the money leads to Shanghai.
Neville Roy Singham is an American tech entrepreneur who sold his software company, ThoughtWorks, for approximately $785 million in 2017. He now lives in Shanghai, where, according to a 2023 New York Times investigation, he “works closely with the Chinese government media machine and finances propaganda worldwide.”
The Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI), a Rutgers University-affiliated research organization, published a comprehensive report in May 2024 documenting what it calls the “Singham Network”—a web of nonprofits, fiscal sponsors, and alternative media outlets that share funding, personnel, and messaging.
According to NCRI, The People’s Forum received over $20 million from Singham and his wife, Jodie Evans (co-founder of the anti-war group CODEPINK), between 2017 and 2022. The money moved through a complex network of donor-advised funds and shell companies, including the Justice and Education Fund, the United Community Fund, and the Goldman Sachs Philanthropy Fund.
The People’s Forum has acknowledged receiving Singham funding. In a December 21, 2021 post on X (then Twitter), the organization defended its financial relationship with Singham against critics.
Congressional investigators have taken notice. On September 4, 2025, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith sent a formal letter to [People’s Forum Executive Director Manolo] De Los Santos demanding records and alleging that The People’s Forum had “acted as a foreign agent of the Chinese Communist Party” while enjoying tax-exempt status.
“Public reporting suggests that The People’s Forum has received over $20 million from Mr. Singham and his wife,” Smith wrote. “Multiple reports have found that The People’s Forum is part of Mr. Singham’s network of non-profit organizations that serve as his conduits to spread pro-CCP narratives.”
The Senate Judiciary Committee separately requested that the Department of Justice investigate whether The People’s Forum should register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
De Los Santos himself has deep ties to Cuba. According to his biography at the Black Alliance for Peace, he “was based out of Cuba for many years” and “worked toward building international networks of people’s movements and organizations.” The New York Post reported that De Los Santos first traveled to Cuba in 2006 and was there as recently as March 2024. He has been photographed meeting with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
Footnotes excised. Snip.
What makes Minnesota different from other immigration flashpoints is the degree to which organizers have been explicit about their strategy.
The NCRI report notes that activists in the Singham network view the 2020 protests as proof that “the ability for mass struggle now exists inside the United States.” This framing treats George Floyd’s death not as a singular tragedy but as a tactical validation—evidence that the right combination of outrage, infrastructure, and outside support can produce transformational results.
De Los Santos’s April 2024 call to recreate “the violent protests of the summer of 2020” was not a slip of the tongue. It was a statement of doctrine.
The IDN’s establishment before Operation Metro Surge began—funded by nearly $1 million from the Bush Foundation—demonstrates pre-positioning rather than organic response. The explicit training of thousands in “rapid response” and “legal observation” tactics, the encrypted communication networks, the coordinated media strategies: none of this materialized spontaneously after Good’s death.
It was waiting.
The evidence assembled here—from congressional investigations, foundation records, tax filings, academic research, and organizers’ own statements—establishes that what is happening in Minnesota is neither spontaneous nor accidental.
The same network that helped turn George Floyd’s death into a national uprising has spent five years building the capacity to do it again. They have studied what worked in 2020, professionalized their operations, secured substantial funding, and pre-positioned infrastructure across Minnesota.
When Renée Good was killed on a Minneapolis street, that infrastructure activated precisely as designed.
Minnesota was chosen—first as the place where 2020 proved the model, then as the laboratory where that model would be refined and redeployed. The current crisis is not an accident of geography or politics.
A collection of far-left groups — led by a Communist activist network tied to CCP-linked millionaire Marxist Neville Roy Singham — is attempting to organize a nationwide anti-ICE school and business shutdown, with anti-Israel activist Linda Sarsour declaring that “we will bring this country to a halt.”
The general strike effort, scheduled for this Friday, is an attempt to replicate a Minnesota-wide anti-ICE shutdown which occurred last Friday and which was organized by many of the same far-left groups — but now with designs to do so on a national scale. The planned “National Shutdown” announced early this week includes plans for large-scale marches and a day of “no work, no school, no shopping” around the country.
The Manhattan-based Marxist revolutionary People’s Forum, the left-wing BreakThrough News media outlet, the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL), the far-left Code Pink anti-war group, and the Act Now to Stop War and End Racism (ANSWER) Coalition are all involved in either promoting or organizing the nationwide shutdown effort.
Just the News recently reported on how the forum, its propaganda machine, and the PSL were key players in pushing last week’s Minnesota-focused shutdown effort. Just the News also previously reported on how these and other radical activist groups have leadership links or financial ties to the funding network backed by Singham, whom others in his network call “Comrade.”
Social media used as organizing platform
The plans for Friday allegedly started with calls by a number of student groups at the University of Minnesota — the Somali Student Association, the Liberian Student Association, the Ethiopian Student Association, and the Black Student Union — who called for “Justice for Alex Pretti & Renee Nicole Good — NATIONWIDE SHUTDOWN” on Instagram on Sunday.
An investigation by Just the News shows that the forum was likely involved in creating the “National Shutdown” website which is now serving as an organizational hub for the coming Friday strike.
Did anyone notice a “nationwide shutdown” today? Mother Nature did a 100,000% better job shutting things down with Winter Storm Fern…
You gotta hand it to those Soros-sponsored district attorneys across the nation because when it comes to playing with fire, they play like they’ve never been burned.
The latest example is Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner. Not exactly a household name across the country,
But one that should be well-known to BattleSwarm readers.
Soros-linked groups have been his single largest financial backing source — helping him bypass traditional party fundraising and local contribution limits.
About a decade ago, Soros contributed about $1.7 million to the Philadelphia Justice and Public Safety PAC while Krasner was still a relative unknown in a seven-candidate race for district attorney. The Philly PAC is part of Soros’s nationwide Justice and Public Safety groups that fund “progressive” DAs in blue city contests.
According to public sources, in 2017, Soros’s donation to just one candidate accounted for nearly 30% of all campaign spending in the seven-person race. For his 2021 reelection, Soros groups gave Krasner another $1.2 million, including $259,000 for Philadelphia Justice and Public Safety PAC to run ads on Krasner’s behalf. Soros supported Krasner again last year, although I wasn’t able to find the dollar amounts before going to press.
Prior to getting all that Soros money to run for D.A., Krasner defended Black Lives Matter and Occupy Philadelphia members in court — and let’s just say Soros got his money’s worth. Or maybe it’s our money, given how intermingled Soros’s private funds are with taxpayer-funded NGOs purpose-tuned to push his causes.
Snip.
Here’s the quick and dirty transcript of Krasner talking about ICE officers: “This is a small bunch of wannabe Nazis — that’s what they are — in a country of 350 million. We outnumber them… If we have to hunt you down the way they hunted down Nazis for decades, we will find your identities, we will find you, we will achieve justice.”
What have I been repeating since the first attempt on President Donald Trump’s life last summer?
The left paints its enemies — we are no longer mere political rivals — as enemies, over and over, until some crazy decides to take justice into his own hands.
The FBI raided a Fulton County election office, evidently looking for evidence of the elction fraud carried out against president Trump in 2020. And it might be connected to…Nicolas Maduro?
Silver prices just plunged plunged over $30 an ounce today after a huge run-up. This means I’m either a genius when I sold a small amount of it last week (when prices were above where they are now), or an idiot for not selling all of it…
For three years, the world has waited for the Russian economy to implode. Instead, we watched a “Kalashnikov economy” defy gravity, fueled by high oil prices and a “friendship without limits” with Beijing. But as of January 2026, the gravity of basic math has finally caught up with Vladimir Putin.
The catalyst isn’t just the stalemate on the front lines; it’s a legislative “kill shot” from Washington and a quiet betrayal from the East. Between the new Graham-Trump Sanctioning Russia Act and a mounting domestic liquidity crisis, the Kremlin isn’t just running out of options—it’s running out of time.
The most significant development of 2026 isn’t a new missile system; it’s a tariff. The Graham-Trump Bill, greenlit by the White House on January 7, has fundamentally rewritten the rules of economic warfare. By threatening a mandatory 500% tariff on any country—including China and India—that continues to purchase Russian petroleum or uranium, the U.S. has finally weaponized the one thing Russia’s allies value more than cheap crude: access to the American consumer.
The shockwaves were instantaneous. On January 15, reports emerged that China’s largest state banks, including ICBC and Bank of China, began halting Ruble-denominated settlements. They aren’t waiting for the bill to be signed into law; they are pre-emptively cutting Russia loose to save their own export margins. When Beijing chooses its $500 billion trade surplus with the U.S. over its “strategic partner” in Moscow, the Russian war machine loses its primary life support system.
While the external walls are closing in, the internal floor is rotting. On New Year’s Day, Russia’s VAT officially jumped to 22%. This isn’t a sign of strength; it’s an act of desperation. The Kremlin is cannibalizing its own middle class to plug a federal budget revenue gap that fell 20% short of targets in 2025.
We are now seeing the first signs of a systemic banking fracture. In cities like Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk, reports of ATM shortages are no longer fringe rumors—they are the physical manifestation of a “liquidity trap.” When the state raises taxes while inflation remains double-digit and interest rates hover near 20%, the result is a “medically induced coma” for the civilian economy.
Federal officials have charged two contractors with conspiring to disrupt Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in Knoxville earlier this month.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Tennessee unsealed a multi-count indictment on Friday against Tyler Shane Wells, 33, of Morristown, and 18-year-old Alexander Bonilla Servin of Smyrna.
They are charged with conspiracy to conceal and harbor illegal aliens, conspiracy to forcibly impede federal agents while engaged in performance of official duties, and conspiracy to prevent, by force, intimidation, or threat, federal agents from discharging their official duties from January 5 through January 13.
Bonilla-Servin is also charged with forcibly impeding federal agents engaged in the performance of their official duties.
Wells appeared in court on Friday and pleaded not guilty to the charges and a detention hearing is set for Monday. A trial date has been set for March 31, 2026.
Federal authorities accuse the two of plotting to block the entrance to a Hardin Valley construction site with Bonilla-Servin’s pickup truck in an effort to impede ICE agents. According to a Department of Justice release, the vehicle was put in position after federal agents were seen surveilling the site. Servin is also accused of hitting agents’ vehicle with the truck as it attempted to enter the site on January 13.
After more than a year of digging, Statehouse candidate Bailey Templeton’s most public records collection shows 1,085 Illinois children under 18 without SSNs had Medicaid bills of $66 million in 2025. That’s up 725% from $8 million for 450 children in 2021.
“It’s roughly $40 million spent on inpatient treatment, that’s a lot of time for children to be in hospitals,” Templeton told The Center Square Friday.
The data only generates more questions for Templeton.
“It raises questions about what would be called medical trafficking, where things are conducted on to children when they’re too young to be able to consent to these things,” she said.
Why, it’s almost like Democrats imported millions of illegal aliens and put them on welfare rolls…
Man tries to kill mayor in the Philippines with an RPG. (Never mind that The Sun calls it a bazooka.)
Idiot Hawaiian Democrat Senator Brian Schatz asks Marco Rubio a really stupid question, and Rubio hands him his ass:
“That’s statutory. The Helms Burton Act, the US embargo on Cuba, is codified. It was codified in law and it requires regime change in order for us to lift the embargo.”
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy just dropped what I’ve been calling the nuclear option.
In an appearance on Katie Pavlich Tonight Thursday, Duffy made clear that withholding $200 million in federal funding isn’t the end of this fight. If California doesn’t come into compliance on the non-domiciled CDL issue, Duffy said, “we will eventually pull their ability to issue commercial driver’s licenses to anybody in California.”
Not just the 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs at the center of this fight. Every single CDL in the state.
I’ve written extensively about this standoff since the FMCSA released its audit findings last September, which showed that roughly 25% of California’s non-domiciled CDLs were improperly issued. I’ve covered the $160 million funding hit. I’ve warned about the decertification authority in 49 U.S.C. 31312 and 49 CFR 384.405, which most people in this industry didn’t even know existed.
This didn’t start with the Trump administration’s September 2025 emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs to certain visa categories. That rule, which limited eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders, has been stayed by the D.C. Circuit since November. The court found that petitioners were “likely to succeed” on their claims that the FMCSA violated federal law in its rulemaking.
The California problem predates all of that.
FMCSA’s August 2025 Annual Program Review found California had been violating federal regulations that existed long before Duffy took office. The state was issuing CDLs with expiration dates extending years beyond drivers’ lawful presence documentation. In one case that still makes my blood boil, California issued a driver from Brazil a CDL with passenger and school bus endorsements that remained valid months after his legal presence expired.
That’s not a new rule problem. That’s a California screwed-up problem.
California agreed in November to revoke all 17,000 improperly issued licenses by January 5, 2026. Then, on December 30, the California DMV unilaterally announced a 60-day extension to March 6, citing the need to ensure it doesn’t wrongfully terminate licenses for drivers who actually qualify.
Duffy’s response on X was blunt: “Gavin Newsom is lying.”
FMCSA never agreed to the extension. California proceeded anyway. On January 7, DOT made good on its threat and withheld approximately $160 million in National Highway Performance Program and Surface Transportation Block Grant funds. That’s on top of the $40 million already withheld over California’s refusal to enforce English language proficiency requirements.
California has more than 700,000 CDL holders. The state is home to the nation’s largest trucking workforce, with over 138,000 truck drivers moving freight through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the agricultural heartland of the Central Valley, and every retail distribution center feeding the country’s largest consumer market.
Under full decertification, California would be prohibited from issuing, renewing, transferring, or upgrading any commercial learner’s permits or commercial driver’s licenses until FMCSA determines the state has corrected its deficiencies. Previously issued CDLs would technically remain valid until their stated expiration dates, but here’s where it gets ugly.
Other states could refuse to recognize California credentials during the noncompliance period. FMCSA could issue guidance declaring CDLs issued by a noncompliant state invalid for interstate commerce. The Commercial Driver’s License Information System, which enables interstate verification, could flag every California license.
For the 700,000 CDL holders in the Golden State, decertification wouldn’t just be an administrative headache.
It would effectively ground them from operating in interstate commerce.
Blue state governors should stop trying to protect their precious illegal aliens and start following federal law.
TikTok has finalized a deal to create a new American entity, avoiding the looming threat of a ban in the United States that has been in discussion for years on the platform now used by more than 200 million Americans.
The social video platform company signed agreements with major investors including Oracle, Silver Lake and the Emirati investment firm MGX to form the new TikTok U.S. joint venture. The new version will operate under “defined safeguards that protect national security through comprehensive data protections, algorithm security, content moderation and software assurances for U.S. users,” the company said in a statement Thursday. American TikTok users can continue using the same app.
Tesla North America announced the completion of a major lithium refinery in Robstown, Texas, with Elon Musk calling it “the most advanced lithium refinery in the world.”
Robstown is just west of Corpus Christi.
In the promotion video, Jason Bevon, the site manager at the Gulf Coast lithium refinery, explains that the refining process used in Robstown is “inherently much more environmentally friendly.” The company claims that the process used by the refinery eliminates hazardous byproducts of the refining process and is more sustainable than traditional methods.
Bevon explained that the refinery “enables us to have access to the critical minerals for energy storage, for battery manufacturing, and ultimately for [electric vehicle (EV)] growth.”
“It enables us to accelerate Tesla’s mission by regionalizing supply chains for battery minerals and materials, by providing jobs, by cutting emissions from the transportation network that is required for these supply chains.”
“It really allows us to usher in energy independence for North America.”
Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy explains that raw lithium needs to be processed into a “chemical in the form of lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, before being used in batteries,” which is done through refining. Currently, China dominates the global trade and production of key minerals, and leads the world in lithium refinement capabilities.
The need for lithium batteries has grown exponentially in recent years, with lithium batteries being required for EVs, smartphones, laptops, and renewable energy receptacles such as solar panels.
Also, you’re partially paying for it:
This political shift and the operation of the refinery are complemented by recent grants through the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund (TSIF), which was established when the Texas CHIPS Act, House Bill 5174, was signed into law in 2023. The TSIF totals “approximately $948 million in total appropriations” and is used for “semiconductor manufacturing and design,” according to the Texas Economic Development and Tourism Office.
Webb County’s sheriff and his assistant chief are facing federal charges for allegedly using office resources to create and profit from a disinfecting business during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sheriff Martin Cuellar Jr., 67, and Assistant Chief Alejandro Gutierrez, 47, have both appeared before a federal grand jury after turning themselves in. Their indictments have now been unsealed, revealing that they both are accused of misappropriating Webb County Sheriff’s Office funds between 2020 and 2022.
Cuellar is the brother of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo).
According to the indictment, around April 2020 Cuellar opened a for-profit business called Disinfectant Pro Master (DPM), which used resources belonging to the WCSO. He reportedly enlisted Gutierrez and Ricardo Rodriguez, an assistant chief, to assist in the start of the venture that provided disinfecting services to local businesses, residents, and the local school district.
Federal prosecutors allege none of the three made any personal investments in the startup company but used county resources, vehicles, and equipment. DPM also reportedly used county funds on multiple occasions to purchase supplies for the company. Staff from the sheriff’s office were often utilized to conduct the company’s operations during their regularly scheduled shifts according to the indictment.
The indictment also claims records show that payroll was not ever issued from the company to compensate the staff that was utilized to carry out its business.
During its operation, DPM received multiple contracts with local businesses, including a $500,000 contract with the United Independent School District, where Rodriguez served on the school board.
The company eventually closed in August 2022 after UISD did not renew its contract following media coverage and public scrutiny at a school board meeting over the contract being awarded to a board member’s company.
During the duration of the company’s operation, Cuellar, Gutierrez, and Rodriguez each reportedly received over $175,000. It is alleged in the indictment that Cuellar used his revenue to purchase a 10-acre property in Laredo.
As you might expect, Martin Cuellar is a Democrat.
Dwight documents not one but two of state-level Democrat congresscritters (state rep Ayshia “Ajay” Pittman in Oklahoma and former state senator Sonya Jaquez Lewis in Colorado) being involved in forgery scandals.
Nose-ringed leftist “Grace Carol Brown is charged with arson and burglary, and is ‘accused of smashing an exterior window, unlawfully entering the Comal County (TX) Republican Party headquarters, and starting a deliberate fire inside the building’ overnight on January 13/14.”
Oh, for fuck’s sake! “Parents say their trans son killed himself because his church employer wouldn’t let him wear French maid outfit, cat ears.”
Simon Whistler on Every Saudi Gigaproject in Vision 2030. Neom is still a ridiculous pipe dream, and Whistler is far too easily impressed with “zero carbon” claims, but some of these projects are actually worth doing and on-track.
Keir Starmer’s Labour government created the character of Amelia, a purple-haired nationalist Goth girl, for a lame Flash-style game to “combat far right extremism” (i.e., anyone who objects to importing illegal alien Islamist rapists into the UK), but now that she’s been adopted and memed by the right, that move backfired big time.
Louis Rossmann reports that downgrading to an earlier operating system bricks the latest OnePlus Android phone. I’d never heard of OnePlus, but it turns out it’s a Chinese brand, so you shouldn’t be buying it in the first place…
Surprise! American shopping malls aren’t dying off.
Shopping malls, long an economic and cultural fixture of American life, are facing sustained pressure but are not disappearing altogether.
Instead, the sector is undergoing creative destruction, as traditional mall formats give way to new concepts that reflect shifting consumer behavior and market conditions, according to recent industry data.
A research report by Capital One Shopping (COS) outlines the magnitude of the challenge facing the mall sector, citing rising mall closures that remain vacant for an average of nearly four years, as well as vacancy rates that are 112 percent higher than the overall retail vacancy rate.
COS also estimates that as many as 87 percent of large shopping malls could close over the next decade.
At the same time, COS data indicate a reversal of earlier trends. From 2021 through 2025, mall openings exceeded mall closures, suggesting adaptation rather than terminal decline. In 2025 alone, 9,410 new mall stores opened, nearly double the number that closed.
Additional evidence of revival appears in a recent article published by Growth Factor. Author Clyde Christian Anderson reported that indoor mall foot traffic in March 2024 rose 9.7 percent year over year, open-air shopping center traffic increased 10.1 percent, and outlet mall traffic climbed 10.7 percent—each exceeding pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.
Every book I bought in 2025, most from early in the year when I still had a contract job and money in the bank…
