I was busy with a family even over the weekend, so I haven’t had a chance to sit down and watch the debate all the way through. But I’ll go ahead and put it up for others to take a gander at (Hat tip: The Right Side of Austin). Be aware that the debate doesn’t actually start until over an hour into the video. I’ve heard of long intros, but that’s ridiculous…
The Cruz campaign sent out a list of links, and rather than link all of them and claim them as my own, I’ll just direct you thataway.
One link they didn’t send out was this review over at Big Jolly Politics, where he gave James, Addison and Dewhurst As, Cruz a B, and Leppert a C.
Kathleen McKinney ranked it Cruz first, James second, and Leppert last (“Not a lot of flash there”), though her overall impressions of all were positive.
I’ve been busy hosting a family even this weekend, so I haven’t been able to do a post on Thursday’s debate. But I wanted to point out the results of the straw poll at Saddle Up Houston (which, with 3,321 voters, had a lot more attendees than I suspected).
Keep in mind all the usual caveats that apply to straw polls: They don’t tend to mean a lot when it comes to real voting.
President
Ron Paul: 54.4%
Rick Santorum: 15.6%
Rick Perry: 13.3%
Newt Gingrich: 11.9%
Mitt Romney: 4.2%
Jon Huntsman: 0.5%
Charles “Buddy” Roemer: 0.0% (Jeeze, how do you not manage to snag even .1% of the vote?)
That’s an excellent showing for Ron Paul, but Paul has consistently proven himself much more adept at winning straw polls than primaries. Caveats aside, it’s a bad showing for Rick Perry (if you can’t win a straw poll in your own state, where can you win it?) and Mitt Romney (the frontrunner should get more than 4.2% of the vote, even against two favorite sons).
Senate
Ted Cruz: 49.1%
Craig James: 12.9%
Glenn Addison: 12.0%
Tom Leppert: 9.1%
Lela Pittenger: 9.1%
David Dewhurst: 7.1%
Charles Holcomb: 0.3%
“Doc Joe” Agris: 0.3%
Curt Cleaver: 0.0%
Ben Gambini: 0.0%
That’s good news for Ted Cruz, Craig James and Glenn Addison, and bad news for David Dewhurst. And even though Tom Leppert outpointed Dewhurst, he can’t feel good at merely tying Lela Pittenger, who has neither campaigned as much as him, nor spent 1/1000th of what he has. (Also, Doc Agris can’t feel good about putting up such a paltry total in his own back yard.) Gambini getting 0% isn’t a surprise, since he’s been the invisible man. Cleaver getting 0% is a bit more surprising, since he’s had at least the semblance of a campaign.
But again, these results don’t mean much, as I seriously doubt we’re going to see Craig James battle Glenn Addison for a spot in the runoff against Cruz. They do highlight an enthusiasm gap between Cruz and Dewhurst, but just how much of that gap will translate into votes remains to be seen. I don’t think we’ll get a glimpse of how the race is shaping up in the minds of actual primary voters until we see polls from some of the established polling companies like Gallup, Zogby and Rasmussen.
I expect the campaigns to start announcing Q4 fundraising results any day now, and I just sent off a list of interview questions to the Craig James campaign today. So here’s one final news roundup of the senate race before an expected avalanche of news.
Cruz, Dewhurst, Tom Leppert and James will all be appearing at a March 2 debate sponsored by The Dallas Morning News.
An interesting piece on a David Dewhurst proposal (or maybe just a trial balloon idea) for, not an illegal alien amnesty “path to citizenship,” but a path to a work visa, in which “if an undocumented/Illegal resident paid for thumb prints, criminal background checks, and verification of residence, we could grant them a two year Visa…renewable only if they have not been convicted of a felony and have paid their taxes.” I’m not sure if this is the right place to mention it. I’m not in complete agreement with the writer, but I will say that Dewhurst’s proposal is far from the worst illegal alien proposal I’ve read.
Back on October 11, I noted that Cruz had picked up the endorsements of “over 115 leaders of the Texas Federation of Republican Women.” The Cruz campaign has now upped that count to over 200 leader Republican women.
Still waiting for Democrats Paul Sadler to put up a campaign website, and Jason Gibson to put up one that’s more than a placeholder. Come on people, putting up a page with a brief bio and a donation link is not that freaking hard. With Daniel Boone not having updated his pages in over a month, maybe Sean Hubbard will capture the Democratic nomination simply because he can update his Facebook and Twitter feeds.
This morning former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee endorsed David Dewhurst’s Senate campaign.
That’s a very good pickup for Dewhurst, and along with his previous Pro-Life endorsements, it shows that he’s doing better than expected among social conservatives.
In his endorsement, Huckabee said that “Lt. Gov. Dewhurst is a strong fiscal conservative, with a record to show for it,” However, Huckabee is not exactly known as a small government conservative. As far as I can tell, Dewhurst has yet to pick up any significant small government/budget cutting/Tea Party endorsements, which thus far Ted Cruz has monopolized (as well as picking up some social conservative endorsements of his own).
The MSM loves to play up the economic-conservatives-vs.-social-conservatives angle (primarily because they hate both, and intramural GOP brawls help increased the chances of their favored liberal candidates), but the most successful conservative politicians (Ronald Reagan most conspicuously) have been fusionists that embodied policies that appealed to both. Texas voters are socially conservative, but they also love low taxes and small government. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will have to appeal to both groups.
Here’s an updated list of the declared 2012 Texas senate candidate’s websites, along with any subsidiary pages that change frequently (in-the-news, press releases, etc.), along with their Facebook pages, Twitter feeds, and FEC fundraising report pages, plus any additional pages worth noting. (For example, Tom Leppert’s website provides links to his LinkedIn page, and his YouTube and Flickr streams, so I have included those here.) I’ve also tried to be flexible; Ted Cruz doesn’t have links for separate YouTube or Flickr sites, so I’ve included similar pages on his campaign page.
Consider this a one-stop research stop for lazy efficient journalists and bloggers (as well as a handy cheat-cheat for myself, since I’ve been doing extensive coverage of the race).
Where candidates have sign-up splash screens, I have omitted those to go straight to the website (or, for Facebook links, their wall).
Websites for 2012 Republican Senate Runoff Candidates
Very soon the candidates should be crowing about how much money they pulled in during Q4. In the meantime, here are few variegated updates for your political junkie pleasure:
Rick Perry gives a boost, in passing, to Dewhurst’s Senate bid in Iowa, with Dewhurst and other Texas officials present. It certainly won’t hurt Dewhurst’s chances, but it’s a bit short of a full-throttle endorsement.
James says he’s living on real street. “Only in politics is it possible for a former football star turned national broadcaster be able to make the claim how connected they are to ordinary people.”
KYFO in Lubbock did a poll asking people if they would vote for James in the Senate race. Right now a bracing 96% are voting no…
A not particularly insightful breakdown of the race. The Craig James-to-Jack Kemp comparison is particularly inapt; Kemp went straight from playing quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in 1969 to running for and winning a congressional seat from Buffalo in 1970. James’ last year of professional football was 1988, and being a cable sportscaster is a level of fame below even a Kardashian sister.
Democrat Paul Sadler gets more love from the Longview News-Journal. Sadler’s hometown of Henderson lies between Nacogdoches and Longview.
The Houston Chroniclealso examines Sadler’s chances. Democrats have pinned their hopes on “a former six-term Texas House member who hasn’t held office since 2003, who has little statewide name identification and whose last race was a losing effort in a runoff election for the state Senate in 2004.” Indeed. But note that writer Joe Holley is incorrect when he says that Sadler “is among six other Democratic candidates,” as there are now only five Democratic Senate candidates. However, I can’t really blame him, as the Texas Democratic Party has never actually said why Eric Roberson and John Morton no longer appear on the list of candidates, nor have they answered my query on the issue.
And here’s another article that mentions Sadler, but none of his opponents in the Democratic primary. It’s almost as if the state’s lockstep MSM outlets have already picked their preferred candidate…
EmpowerTexas will be hosting a senate debate in Austin on January 12. Participants are Cruz, Dewhurst, James, Tom Leppert and Glenn Addison (which is the right five if you’re limiting it to five).
There’s also a Saddle Up Texas Straw Poll event in Houston January 12-14. Cruz, Dewhurst, Leppert, Addison, Lela Pittenger and Dr. Joe Agris are all scheduled to attend, as is Andrew Breitbart. Call me a cynic, but when an event has a list of sponsorship opportunities but no actual sponsors 10 days before the event, as well as $45 tickets (good luck with that), my gut feeling is that the organizers are going to take a serious financial bath. (Indeed, it gives off a whiff of The Ultimate Fantasy, a legendary Star Trek convention debacle I attended which also took place in Houston…)
I try to deal with substantive issues in coverage of the race, but every now and then it’s worth noting good old-fashioned politicking. Take, for example, the way Cruz celebrates every Texas university bowl win (U of H, Baylor, A&M, Texas) on his Facebook page, including team logos. Leppert comes close, but missed the Aggies. Dewhurst doesn’t seem to discuss sports on his Facebook page, despite including the Longhorns among his likes.
With all the coming and the going and the filing and the GLAVEN, it’s been a crazy few days keeping up with the Texas senate race. I even went back today to see if their were any stragglers who hadn’t been updated on the Republican and Democratic candidate websites yesterday. There were no additions but, interestingly, there was one subtraction (see below).
Of course, there may be another scramble when the filing period opens up again next year after a Supreme Court decision on redistricting. Keep watching the skies…
I evidently missed this back in October, but the Texas Home School Coalition PAC endorsed Ted Cruz.
Addison also resigned from the Magnolia ISD board to concentrate on his senate race. Given that he stated the board was responsible for his gray hair at one of the candidate forums, maybe it wasn’t a hard decision…
David Dewhurst scoffs at the idea that Craig James’ entry in the race will force him into a runoff. As well he should. He was already headed for a runoff.
Newly minted candidate Paul Sadler gets some love from the Houston Chronicle. Of course, saying he was a big player in state legislative issues in the 1990s is pretty much tantamount to saying “Who?”
Indeed, some are already saying that the Democratic primary is a two man race between Sadler and Jason A. Gibson, ignoring the fact that Sean Hubbard has been running for most of the year, and that Daniel Boone has the tremendous asset of being named Daniel Boone. That article also notes that Gibson is president of the Houston Trial Lawyers Association, which would suggest access to a healthy amount of campaign funding.
A bit more on Sadler, who lost a runoff election to Republican Kevin Eltife in a 2004 state senate race.
Sadler also emailed back to say that he didn’t have a website up yet. “Hopefully, within a week or so.”
One oddity: Remember former Republican turned Independent turned Democrat Eric Roberson, who showed up on the list of candidates late yesterday? Well, his name was gone today…possibly because he also shows as a candidate for Place 11 on the 5th Court of Appeals.
I’ve sent emails to Andrew Castanuela, Stanley Garza, and Virgil Bierschwale, whose names do not appear the filing lists for the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries, to ask if they’ve abandoned their campaigns. I’ll let you know when I find out.
Conversely, if Ben Gambini, John Morton, or Addie Dainell Allen are reading this, you might send a comment or email to let me know who you are and why you’re running for the senate.
First interview with Craig James about his Senate run. My apologies for the crappy WFAA flash video implementation:
Finally, for commentator “John Doe”: No, I’m not going to post an un-sourced, laundry list of lurid accusations against a candidate (not even a Democrat) from an anonymous troll. Try again when you can cite a source for your accusations.
Craig James takes a leave of absence from ESPN to mull a Senate run. That’s certainly a much stronger indication he’ll run than we’ve had before.
I was unaware until I read this Chronicle piece that James joined the Texas Public Policy Foundation (and seems to have done some events for them, though he does not seem to currently be on the board), which would indicate at least some familiarity with conservative policy issues. Of course, Ted Cruz used to work in TPPP’s Center for Tenth Amendment Studies.
Another longshot Republican candidate , “Dr. Joe” Agris, files for the race. Dr. Agris is evidently a plastic surgeon who has done some good works, many in association with late Houston broadcasting legend Marvin Zindler (who made use of Dr. Agris services on many an occasion). Dr. Agris is not entirely a political neophyte, having run in the general election for Texas House District 134 in 2008. He reportedly waged a low-effort campaign (or so says lefty Houston blog Off the Kuff), pulling in only 42% of the vote in a distract John McCain won. He’s evidently been contemplating this run at least since April.
The big news in the Senate race is a change to the filing deadlines:
According to Blue Dot Blues, “the new filing period for all candidates from precinct chair to U.S. President has been extended to 6:00 pm on Monday, December 19th.” Plus “once maps are finalized following the Supreme Court hearing in mid-January, there will be a new filing period for all primary ballot races.”
David Dewhurst racks up another pro-life endorsement. Honestly, I’d never heard of The Heidi Group before, but I’m not as tied into the pro-life movement as some.
