Posts Tagged ‘Paul Sadler’

How Big Will Ted Cruz Win Tomorrow?

Monday, November 5th, 2012

I’m pretty confident that Ted Cruz will win the election (and deservedly so). The only question now is: By how much?

To determine that, let’s look at the recent history of non-Presidential top-of-the-ballot races in Texas:

  • 2000 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 4,078,954 (65%) over Gene Kelly 2,025,024 (32%)
  • 2002 Senate: John Cornyn 2,480,991 (55%) over Ron Kirk 1,946,681 (43%)
  • 2002 Governor: Rick Perry 2,617,106 (58%) over Tony Sanchez 1,809,915 (40%)
  • 2006 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 2,661,789 (62%) over Barbara Ann Radnofsky 1,555,202 (36%)
  • 2008 Senate: John Cornyn 4,326,639 (55%) over Rick Noriega 3,383,890 (43%)
  • 2010 Governor: Rick Perry 2,733,784 (55%) over Bill White 2,102,606 (42%)
  • (I’m throwing out the 4-way 2006 gubernatorial race as not germane. All numbers via Wikipdia, % rounded.)

    In terms of financial resources, Sadler’s fundraising has been very poor, having raised just over $800,000; poorer even than Rick Noriega, who managed to raise over $4 million, or Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who raised about $1.5 million. Then again, money isn’t everything: Tony Sanchez spent $60 million of his own money to garner a meager 40% against Rick Perry in 2002.

    I don’t think Sadler will do as poorly as vanity candidate Gene Kelly did in 2000. I expect Obama to run 4-5 points worse than he did in 2008, and I expect Sadler to probably lose a point or two off Obama’s total. So, I predict: Ted Cruz gets 61% of the vote, and Paul Sadler gets around 39%.

    Texas Senate Race Update for November 5, 2012

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.

    I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.

  • Last poll shows Cruz leading Sadler 57%-36%.
  • Cruz picks up the endorsements of Texas mayors.
  • Sen. John Cornyn backs Cruz, but may be wary of the rising power of the Tea Party he represents. As well he should.
  • Paul Sadler managed to raise more money for his 2004 Texas Senate race than his 2012 U.S. Senate race. (Repeated from last week’s LinkSwarm.)
  • Sadler finally buys some ads a week before the election. Note how Robert T. Garrett references the previous item, but doesn’t have the decency to link to it.
  • Sadler gets in some last minute hispandering by pushing amnesty down on the border.
  • Perry vs. World wonders why Sadler’s ads suck so badly.
  • In his ad, Sadler asks if Texans really want to elect a Tea Party candidate. I suspect voters will answer overwhelmingly in the affirmative.
  • LinkSwarm for October 30, 2012

    Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

    I was going to have an insightful, data-filed post on the Texas 23rd Congressional district race, but then I realized that the Los Angeles Times data I was relying on flipped at least one bit of information (NRA-ILA is doing independent expenditures against Pete Gallego, not against Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco), which means I can’t trust the rest. Super executive summary: Canseco has a huge cash on-hand advantage, $785,623 to $23,250, but assuming the other LA Times numbers are right, the independent expenditure race is a lot closer to even.

    Now on to a LinkSwarm a week before the election:

  • Obama is clearly winning the race for military endorsements, having 6 endorsements to Romney’s paltry 359.
  • Politico worried that Romney may let lobbyists “back” into the White House, conveniently ignoring the dozens of lobbyists Obama has on staff.
  • There’s a huge amount of outrage over the MSM trying to bury the Benghazi scandal to help Obama over the finish line.
  • Even Democratic pollster Pat Caddell is outraged:

  • Syrian rebels get antiaircraft missiles. What could possibly go wrong?
  • A Daily Beast piece on the decline of the left-wing Netroots.
  • Paul Sadler managed to raise more money for his 2004 Texas Senate race than his 2012 U.S. Senate race.
  • Remember Joseph Livoti, formerly the finance director for Ricardo Sanchez’s aborted Senate campaign? Probably not. Well, his current position is “Finance Director at Joe Miklosi for Congress”. And the Sanchez campaign doesn’t appear in his job summary. Funny that.
  • Given that Miklosi has raised about half of what his Republican opponent incumbent Mike Coffman has for the Colorado Sixth Congressional District race, but only has about one-fifth the cash on hand, Livoti seems to have retained his magic touch.
  • Michael Totten: The Islamist threat isn’t going away.
  • Some pictures of Sandy-related flooding.
  • BattleSwarm Blog Endorses Ted Cruz For United States Senator

    Sunday, October 21st, 2012

    Lawrence Person’s BattleSwarm Blog endorses Ted Cruz for United States Senator. I believe that Cruz is the best candidate, that he has a long, strong, and deep commitment to conservative principles, and that he will make a great Senator for Texas.

    I originally endorsed Cruz on April 30, a month before the Republican primary, and gave extended reasons why Cruz was the best candidate of all those running in the Republican primary, weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each. This post reiterates that endorsement, and explains why Ted Cruz is a vastly superior choice for Senator than Democrat Paul Sadler.

    Sadler had a reputation as a “moderate” Democrat in the Texas House, which meant he wanted government to get bigger and spend more at a slightly slower rate than his fellow Democrats, and was reportedly a skilled legislator on education issues. But I don’t want a “skilled legislator,” I want a conservative fighter. I want someone to fight for shrinking the size and scope of the federal government and reign in the insanely bloated federal spending that’s holding down the economy, not manage the bloat. There are quite enough Democrats in Congress who pretend to be moderate until the votes really count (see also: ObamaCare); we don’t need another one.

    Like his party, Sadler has moved steadily left over the years. After failing to win a U.S. House seat, Sadler worked first as an asbestos trial lawyer, and then as head of a Texas wind power coalition putting him in not one but two of the biggest recipient groups for liberal big government crony capitalism largess. This suggests that he would try to roll back tort reform and would make a very poor representative for Texas’ vital oil and gas industry.

    Further, given the positions Sadler has taken in interviews and debates, there seems to be very little of that old “moderate” patina left on him. He’s for higher taxes, bigger government, green pork, public employee unions, illegal alien amnesty, and ObamaCare. He’d fit right in among the big spenders in a Harry Reid-led Senate.

    By contrast, Ted Cruz is not only the unquestioned Tea Party representative for shrinking big government, he has a broad, deep and impressive conservative background. You don’t specialize in 9th and 10th Amendment studies because you want to be rich, and you don’t work at the Texas Public Policy Foundation if you want to be a squishy moderate. Cruz is not only exceptionally sharp, an excellent debater and a gifted public speaker, he’s also a classic fusionist candidate with both strong free market and social conservative credentials. He beat all his Republican opponents despite millions spent to smear him and came out of the runoff not only unscathed, but with a national reputation. He was a great Texas Solicitor General, and I think he will make a great Senator. I urge all my Texas readers to cast their votes for him as the next United States Senator from Texas.

    Quick Texas Senate Race Q3 Fundraising Update

    Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

    Barring any catastrophic event, Ted Cruz is going to be the next Senator from Texas, but the campaign keeps on chugging along. The official fundraising forms from the FEC aren’t up yet, but the two campaigns have announced the totals raised.

    Ted Cruz raised $3.5 million in Q3, $2 million of it after the runoff.

    I can’t find any mention of Paul Sadler’s fundraising numbers on his press release page, but according to the Houston Chronicle, Sadler raised “about $358,734” in Q3. In truth, that’s a bit more than I expected him to raise, given that he has about as much hope of being elected Senator than the Cleveland Browns do of winning the 2013 Superbowl.

    Oh, and just for the record: Losing Democratic Senate runoff candidate Grady Yarbrough did finally file his FEC report.

    LinkSwarm for October 8, 2012

    Monday, October 8th, 2012

    Today was dedicated to exercise and fiction, so here’s a quick LinkSwarm:

  • Texas Public Policy Foundation offers a status breakdown of various lawsuits Texas has filed against the EPA to curb regulatory overreach. The state has won more than it’s lost.
  • Ted Cruz on Obama’s anti-growth agenda.
  • The hysterical reaction of Obama’s liberal allies to his debate loss has made things worse for him.
  • Iowahawk reports on a recent outbreak of scrutonium, “a deadly poll-eating supervirus that attacks the immuno-hope system, leaving victims vulnerable to material facts.”
  • A supporter of the Party of Tolerance sent Mia Love a package containing pictures of Klansmen and abortions.
  • True the Vote finds more of that voter fraud that doesn’t exist.
  • China launches it’s first aircraft carrier.
  • Perry vs. World thinks that Dewhurst is the favorite for reelection.
  • Texas Democrats can’t raise money.
  • Paul Salder, trial lawyer.
  • Williamson County Republican leaders endorse Pauline Law and Tere McCann for Round Rock ISD Board of Trustees. (Via Holly Hansen, who has lots more RRISD info. If you live in the district, go over there and keep scrolling.)
  • Cruz-Sadler Debate Goes About the Way You Would Expect

    Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

    Ted Cruz pretty much wiped the floor with him, if the reports of our Demophilic media are to believed.

    Visibly angry, [Sadler] repeatedly accused Cruz of lying. The Republican largely kept his cool and cast his little-known Democratic rival as “unapologetically liberal” and a big supporter of gay marriage and President Barack Obama’s health care law.

    Even Paul Burka wasn’t impressed with Sadler. “Sadler was unrestrained. He called Cruz a liar, repeatedly.”

    Here’s the full debate if you want to judge for yourself:

    Random Texas Runoff Tidbits

    Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

    I intend to do a comprehensive roundup of why Ted Cruz won the Senate race, and why David Dewhurst lost, but it’s such a big subject I’m having trouble getting started. There’s entirely too much to talk about, and I’m still digesting all the ramifications.

    So instead, here are a few other random observations from last night’s runoff:

  • Republicans now have two Hispanic candidates running for statewide office: Ted Cruz at the top of the ballot (just below President) for United States Senate, and Elsa Alcala for Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Place 8. Number of Democrats nominated for statewide office in Texas in 2012: Zero. (Even the Libertarians have more statewide Hispanic candidates than the Democrats this year, which is to say they have one.)
  • Actually, the Libertarians more candidates running statewide than the Democratic Party does. And the Greens (five) have just as many.
  • Donna Campbell stomped Jeff Wentworth, taking two-thirds of the vote against a long-time incumbent which (absent a serious scandal) is almost unheard of. However, the result isn’t the “upset” some newspapers are proclaiming it, since Elizabeth Ames Jones split the anti-Wentworth vote in the primary, indicating deep dissatisfaction with the very establishment incumbent.
  • Tom Maynard edged Rebecca Osbourne in the State Board of Education District 10 race, 36,099 votes to 35,120. I’m sure that Holly Hansen will be pleased.
  • As expected, Paul Sadler beat Grady Yarbrough for the Democratic Senate nomination. Sadler is about to find out that when members of the national Democratic Party promised him adequate funding if he won the primary, they were engaged in what is commonly known as “lying.”
  • Republican U.S. Congressional Race runoffs: Ron Paul-endorsed Randy Weber beat Felicia Harris in CD14, Roger Williams beats Wes Riddle in CD25 (Last Williams Standing, and I think the only Senate race dropout to win their new race), once and future congressman Steve Stockman (part of the Gingrich wave in 1994) beat Stephen Takach in CD36. Plus longshots in two heavily Democratic districts: Dale A. Brueggemann over Eddie Zamora in CD15 to face incumbent Ruben Hinojosa, and Jessica Puente Bradshaw over Adela Garza to take on Filemon Vela in new “minority opportunity” CD34.
  • Pete Gallego beat former congressman Ciro B. Rodriguez for the chance to take on Republican incumbent Francisco “Quico” Canseco in CD23. Canseco took the seat away from Rodriguez in 2010, and CD23 is essentially the only realistic opportunity Democrats have to flip a Texas U.S. congressional seat this election.
  • The Tea Party is alive and well not only in Texas, but also in Georgia, where voters rejected a consultant pocket-lining mass transportation tax hike supported by the Republican governor.
  • July 19: Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson announces he’s supporting Dewhurst. July 31, 7:52 PM (just minutes after Dewhurst’s concession speech to Cruz): announces he’s running for Dewhurst’s current office: “I have great respect for Lt. Gov. Dewhurst. However, I’m running for LtGov in 2014.” And his campaign website is already up.
  • Cruz Beating Dewhurst in Early Voting

    Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

    Now that polls have closed, runoff voting results are trickling in, and Ted Cruz is currently beating David Dewhurst by a little more than 52% to 48% in early voting results. Remember, Dewhurst dominated early voting results in the primary; if the same pattern holds, Cruz should win decisively.

    Democratic results are here. If early results hold, the Grady Yarbrough dream dies tonight…

    Texas Senate Race Update for July 30, 2012

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    Tomorrow’s election day! Get out there and vote! And if you’re still making up your mind, you might want to read my endorsement of Ted Cruz.

    Now the final roundup of pre-runoff Senate race news:

  • Evan at Perry vs. World debunks Cruz’s role in Dewhurst’s last-minute “cash for kids” ad. “Ted Cruz was trying to help the Kids for Cash victims get the money they deserved from an insurance company.”
  • The more detailed explanation that Evan links to is here. “In either case, Cruz had nothing to do with the creation of the fund or how much it pays victims. He was not one of the attorneys listed on the agreement. If anything, Cruz’s only involvement in the case would have resulted in more—not less—money for victims.”
  • Michelle Malkin on why electing Cruz is so important.
  • Democrat says why he’s voting for Dewhurst: “Ted Cruz has not exhibited progressive behavior at all.”
  • The inmates over at Democratic Underground have joined the chorus of liberal Democrats urging a vote for Dewhurst.
  • Even Paul Burka can see the writing on the wall: “Nothing Dewhurst has tried has changed the dynamics of the race at all. If anything, the millions Dewhurst has spent on TV have hurt his own campaign. The China ad and the Kids for Cash scandal ad have not achieved anything. Dewhurst’s array of consultants has never been able to lay a glove on Cruz.”
  • Politico joins the list of those expecting a Cruz victory. “We’re on the 2-yard line. We have marched the entire length of the field. We started out up in the hot dog stands.”
  • Final day of campaigning: “At Dewhurst’s stopover at an Austin Chick-fil-A franchise early Monday, about a dozen supporters waved Dewhurst placards—and close to half of them were lobbyists.”
  • Coverage of The Woodland Ted Cruz rally featuring Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint.
  • Ted Cruz rally montage:

  • Ted Cruz at FreePAC:

  • Q: So Dewhurst, are any of your staffers working for the SuperPACs slamming Ted Cruz? A: No. Q: Former staffers? A: Uh….

  • Fox Houston: “Early voting numbers show Cruz ahead by 10 percent.” I assume they mean the PPP poll, as they usually don’t release actual vote totals until the polls have closed on election night.
  • KVUE talks about the Tea Party angle.
  • Final day roundup story.
  • Dewhurst is still campaigning. Here’s his last-minute-push video with Rick Perry:

    At least it’s refreshingly free of dishonest slime attacks against Cruz…

  • And yes, the Democrats are having their own runoff tomorrow. The Texas Democratic Party all but says “Screw neutrality, you better vote for Paul Sadler if you know what’s good for you.” They also commit a factual error. As readers of this blog know, Grady Yarbrough has been endorsed by a newspaper, The Austin Villager. Since the The Austin Villager is a black community newspaper, if a Republican omitted them, you know they would be accused of racism…
  • Yarbrough comes out for illegal alien amnesty, which might be a we tad inconsistent with his previous stance on putting the Berlin Wall on the border.
  • If Yarbrough does win the Democratic runoff, $20 says Sadler and the TDP try to get him thrown off the ballot for not filing his FEC forms…