Posts Tagged ‘Ted Cruz’

Bright Spots

Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Well, that could have gone better.

As an effort at alleviating depression among the vast right wing conspiracy, here are a few glimmers of hope amidst the dismal news:

  • Republicans kept the House.
  • Ted Cruz won. And here’s his victory speech:

  • Democrats picked up senate seats, but they still don’t have a filibuster-proof majority.
  • Randy Weber won.
  • Republicans hold as many statewide offices in Texas as they did before, i.e. all of them.
  • Republicans won all four seats on the Third Court of Appeals.
  • Donna Campbell won.
  • Tony Dale won.
  • In the real-life 2012 version of Atlas Shrugged, Texas has taken the place of Colorado, i.e. the redoubt of a dynamic economy, freedom and limited government in a country grown ever-more statist. Thankfully, it’s not the only one, and red states are still outperforming blue states by a good measure. A narrow Obama victory can’t change that. We’ve got to keep on fighting the good fight.

    We lost the battle. The war goes on.

    LiveBlogging/LiveTweeting the Election

    Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

    Congratulations to Ted Cruz and Tony Dale on well-deserved victories!

    And on that bit of good news, off to sleep…


    Weber beats Lampson in CD14.


    Obama 303, Romney 203, Florida and Alaska undecided. And Obama is edging Romney in the popular vote as well, but not by much.


    Fox calls election for Obama. Still not sure I trust the Wisconsin call. It looks like Romney may very well win the popular vote. Even so, I still don’t believe in abolishing the electoral college.


    Fox calls Ohio for Obama. That may be all she wrote.


    All annoying local news now.


    PBS calls Iowa for Obama.


    Obama still up .5% in Florida with 94% of the vote in.


    Florida, Florida, Florida.


    Any way this turns out, this is 1% difference election.


    No, Romney playing the bio film at the GOP convention wouldn’t have made any difference.


    AP RACE CALL: Romney wins North Carolina.


    Maybe we should have nominated #Hypnotoad.


    David Brooks (click) Elizabeth Warren (click) Crowd interview (click) Grrrrr


    Whether Obama wins or not, GOP house should refuse to pass a debt limit increase, and force government to live within it’s means.


    Hit my tweet limit!


    [Swing state name here] Too close to call. Repeat as necessary.


    Looks like it’s going to be a long night before this thing is decided.


    7:23 Romney up in VA, FL too close to call, but Panhandle polls close late, and that’s Romney territory.


    Everything in the battleground states is too close to call.


    6:50 PM
    ROMNEY: Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina
    OBAMA:Vermont


    #ElectionNightSurprises: Fox News calls race for Obama, ABC for Romney, CBS for Gary Johnson, CNN for Jill Stein, and MSNBC for the reanimated corpse of Howard Taft


    Please note that I will be live-blogging and live-tweeting the election tonight as the returns roll in starting around 7 PM CST. Judging from my live-tweeting of the debates, there’s a good chance I’ll “exceed the tweet limit”, so you’ll want to check both places for pithy insight and wily snark.

    How Big Will Ted Cruz Win Tomorrow?

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    I’m pretty confident that Ted Cruz will win the election (and deservedly so). The only question now is: By how much?

    To determine that, let’s look at the recent history of non-Presidential top-of-the-ballot races in Texas:

  • 2000 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 4,078,954 (65%) over Gene Kelly 2,025,024 (32%)
  • 2002 Senate: John Cornyn 2,480,991 (55%) over Ron Kirk 1,946,681 (43%)
  • 2002 Governor: Rick Perry 2,617,106 (58%) over Tony Sanchez 1,809,915 (40%)
  • 2006 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 2,661,789 (62%) over Barbara Ann Radnofsky 1,555,202 (36%)
  • 2008 Senate: John Cornyn 4,326,639 (55%) over Rick Noriega 3,383,890 (43%)
  • 2010 Governor: Rick Perry 2,733,784 (55%) over Bill White 2,102,606 (42%)
  • (I’m throwing out the 4-way 2006 gubernatorial race as not germane. All numbers via Wikipdia, % rounded.)

    In terms of financial resources, Sadler’s fundraising has been very poor, having raised just over $800,000; poorer even than Rick Noriega, who managed to raise over $4 million, or Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who raised about $1.5 million. Then again, money isn’t everything: Tony Sanchez spent $60 million of his own money to garner a meager 40% against Rick Perry in 2002.

    I don’t think Sadler will do as poorly as vanity candidate Gene Kelly did in 2000. I expect Obama to run 4-5 points worse than he did in 2008, and I expect Sadler to probably lose a point or two off Obama’s total. So, I predict: Ted Cruz gets 61% of the vote, and Paul Sadler gets around 39%.

    Texas Senate Race Update for November 5, 2012

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.

    I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.

  • Last poll shows Cruz leading Sadler 57%-36%.
  • Cruz picks up the endorsements of Texas mayors.
  • Sen. John Cornyn backs Cruz, but may be wary of the rising power of the Tea Party he represents. As well he should.
  • Paul Sadler managed to raise more money for his 2004 Texas Senate race than his 2012 U.S. Senate race. (Repeated from last week’s LinkSwarm.)
  • Sadler finally buys some ads a week before the election. Note how Robert T. Garrett references the previous item, but doesn’t have the decency to link to it.
  • Sadler gets in some last minute hispandering by pushing amnesty down on the border.
  • Perry vs. World wonders why Sadler’s ads suck so badly.
  • In his ad, Sadler asks if Texans really want to elect a Tea Party candidate. I suspect voters will answer overwhelmingly in the affirmative.
  • Tough Race to Replace Ron Paul in U.S. 14th Congressional District

    Monday, October 29th, 2012

    When I looked over the new redistricting numbers, the Texas U.S. Congressional seat that leapt out at me as the most competitive was Rep Francisco “Quico” Canseco’s CD23, a swing seat which got minimal Republican reinforcement during redistricting. But right now I’m feeling better about that one. (Hopefully more on that topic in the next day or two.)

    Right now the seat that worries me most is CD 14, Ron Paul’s old seat, where the Democrats are making a hard run to snag an upset in what looks to be a very down year for them both statewide and nationally.

    Going off of Obama’s 2008 vote, the district got 9% less Republican in redistricting. The old 14th went 66% for McCain, the new one only 57%. That’s still a considerable advantage, but not necessarily an insurmountable one.

    Moreover, in Nicholas Valentino “Nick” Lampson of Beaumont, the Democratic party has actually found a reasonably popular local politician with qualifying experience in Congress (including one term in Tom DeLay’s old seat). National Democrats have had this seat painted as a takeover target all year. Lampson’s FEC report includes a number of Texas lawyers and some out-of-state juice, including ACTBLUE, the Professional Airways Specialists PAC, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Campaign Assistance Fund. (And who knows how much soft money will be spent on behalf of Lampson by outside groups this cycle?) The Lampson campaign was also one of two TX CD campaigns that flew in Bill Clinton for a campaign appearance. An internal Lampson poll released in August showed a very close race (usual internal poll caveats apply).

    The Republican nominee, Randy Weber, is a two-term State Rep. Unlike Lampson, Weber had a crowded primary and a runoff to contend with, which ate up significant funds.

    That Roll Call piece says that Lampson has $422,000 in cash on hand, while Weber only had $55,000. However, looking at the actual FEC numbers, updated in October 17 filings, it doesn’t seem quite so bad, with Lampson having $151,218 cash on hand compared to Weber’s $83,617.

    Weber has serious (if largely expected) Republican endorsements, including Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Greg Abbott and Nolan Ryan. Ted Cruz had a joint campaign appearance with Weber today.

    If you’re looking for a Texas race where your last minute donation can have the most effect, the Randy Weber campaign is a good choice.

    Pictures from Ted Cruz/Tony Dale Event in Williamson County

    Friday, October 26th, 2012

    I attended the Ted Cruz/Tony Dale event at Williamson County GOP headquarters on October 25 and took some pictures. Click to embiggen.

    Your humble blogger with the Guest of Honor, the next United States Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz:

    And just in cased you missed it, here once again is my endorsement of Cruz for the general election.

    Since I didn’t manage to get any good pictures of Tony Dale at his last event, I got two good ones this time around to make up for it:

    Here are some pics to give an idea of the Wilco GOP digs:

    They had a wide selection of GOP literature available:

    Ted Cruz solo:

    Chairman of the Republican Party of Texas Steve Munisteri, who I hope will forgive me for taking a picture than makes him look like The Joker:

    I get the impression that it was a very long day for both him and Cruz. Two ravenous Cruz staffers went to town on the chicken nuggets; I think they’d been too busy to eat before then.

    Also in attendance: Holly Hansen, Lisa Birkman, Third Court of Appeals candidate Scott Field, and Cedar Park Mayor Matt Powell.

    It was a good crowd (I’m guessing about 50-75 people) and Cruz gave a very solid stump speech. I think things look pretty good for Cruz, Dale, and (fingers crossed) Mitt Romney.

    BattleSwarm Blog Endorses Ted Cruz For United States Senator

    Sunday, October 21st, 2012

    Lawrence Person’s BattleSwarm Blog endorses Ted Cruz for United States Senator. I believe that Cruz is the best candidate, that he has a long, strong, and deep commitment to conservative principles, and that he will make a great Senator for Texas.

    I originally endorsed Cruz on April 30, a month before the Republican primary, and gave extended reasons why Cruz was the best candidate of all those running in the Republican primary, weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each. This post reiterates that endorsement, and explains why Ted Cruz is a vastly superior choice for Senator than Democrat Paul Sadler.

    Sadler had a reputation as a “moderate” Democrat in the Texas House, which meant he wanted government to get bigger and spend more at a slightly slower rate than his fellow Democrats, and was reportedly a skilled legislator on education issues. But I don’t want a “skilled legislator,” I want a conservative fighter. I want someone to fight for shrinking the size and scope of the federal government and reign in the insanely bloated federal spending that’s holding down the economy, not manage the bloat. There are quite enough Democrats in Congress who pretend to be moderate until the votes really count (see also: ObamaCare); we don’t need another one.

    Like his party, Sadler has moved steadily left over the years. After failing to win a U.S. House seat, Sadler worked first as an asbestos trial lawyer, and then as head of a Texas wind power coalition putting him in not one but two of the biggest recipient groups for liberal big government crony capitalism largess. This suggests that he would try to roll back tort reform and would make a very poor representative for Texas’ vital oil and gas industry.

    Further, given the positions Sadler has taken in interviews and debates, there seems to be very little of that old “moderate” patina left on him. He’s for higher taxes, bigger government, green pork, public employee unions, illegal alien amnesty, and ObamaCare. He’d fit right in among the big spenders in a Harry Reid-led Senate.

    By contrast, Ted Cruz is not only the unquestioned Tea Party representative for shrinking big government, he has a broad, deep and impressive conservative background. You don’t specialize in 9th and 10th Amendment studies because you want to be rich, and you don’t work at the Texas Public Policy Foundation if you want to be a squishy moderate. Cruz is not only exceptionally sharp, an excellent debater and a gifted public speaker, he’s also a classic fusionist candidate with both strong free market and social conservative credentials. He beat all his Republican opponents despite millions spent to smear him and came out of the runoff not only unscathed, but with a national reputation. He was a great Texas Solicitor General, and I think he will make a great Senator. I urge all my Texas readers to cast their votes for him as the next United States Senator from Texas.

    Quick Texas Senate Race Q3 Fundraising Update

    Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

    Barring any catastrophic event, Ted Cruz is going to be the next Senator from Texas, but the campaign keeps on chugging along. The official fundraising forms from the FEC aren’t up yet, but the two campaigns have announced the totals raised.

    Ted Cruz raised $3.5 million in Q3, $2 million of it after the runoff.

    I can’t find any mention of Paul Sadler’s fundraising numbers on his press release page, but according to the Houston Chronicle, Sadler raised “about $358,734” in Q3. In truth, that’s a bit more than I expected him to raise, given that he has about as much hope of being elected Senator than the Cleveland Browns do of winning the 2013 Superbowl.

    Oh, and just for the record: Losing Democratic Senate runoff candidate Grady Yarbrough did finally file his FEC report.

    LinkSwarm for October 8, 2012

    Monday, October 8th, 2012

    Today was dedicated to exercise and fiction, so here’s a quick LinkSwarm:

  • Texas Public Policy Foundation offers a status breakdown of various lawsuits Texas has filed against the EPA to curb regulatory overreach. The state has won more than it’s lost.
  • Ted Cruz on Obama’s anti-growth agenda.
  • The hysterical reaction of Obama’s liberal allies to his debate loss has made things worse for him.
  • Iowahawk reports on a recent outbreak of scrutonium, “a deadly poll-eating supervirus that attacks the immuno-hope system, leaving victims vulnerable to material facts.”
  • A supporter of the Party of Tolerance sent Mia Love a package containing pictures of Klansmen and abortions.
  • True the Vote finds more of that voter fraud that doesn’t exist.
  • China launches it’s first aircraft carrier.
  • Perry vs. World thinks that Dewhurst is the favorite for reelection.
  • Texas Democrats can’t raise money.
  • Paul Salder, trial lawyer.
  • Williamson County Republican leaders endorse Pauline Law and Tere McCann for Round Rock ISD Board of Trustees. (Via Holly Hansen, who has lots more RRISD info. If you live in the district, go over there and keep scrolling.)
  • Cruz-Sadler Debate Goes About the Way You Would Expect

    Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

    Ted Cruz pretty much wiped the floor with him, if the reports of our Demophilic media are to believed.

    Visibly angry, [Sadler] repeatedly accused Cruz of lying. The Republican largely kept his cool and cast his little-known Democratic rival as “unapologetically liberal” and a big supporter of gay marriage and President Barack Obama’s health care law.

    Even Paul Burka wasn’t impressed with Sadler. “Sadler was unrestrained. He called Cruz a liar, repeatedly.”

    Here’s the full debate if you want to judge for yourself: