Posts Tagged ‘Ted Cruz’

Texas Senate Race Update for April 5, 2012

Thursday, April 5th, 2012

Expect things to be a little slow for the Easter weekend:

  • Ted Cruz appeared on Fox 26 in Houston:

  • Cruz got attacked by Progress Texas for advertising on Rush Limbaugh. So Cruz reaches conservative listeners and gets liberals to attack him, so it’s a Win-Win situation for him…
  • Cruz’s father Rafael Cruz will appear at a Tea Party rally April 16.
  • The Weekly Standard takes a look at the race.
  • The Houston Chronicle looks at the social media front.
  • David Dewhurst plops down $608,000 for a media ad buy.
  • Hotline-on-Call pulls the “Cruz won’t necessarily back Sen. John Cornyn for Whip” story out of the freezer and pops it in the microwave.
  • You know how Craig James claimed that Walmart heir Alice Walton was supporting him? Yeah, not so much. Walton is backing Dewhurst.
  • Democratic candidate Addie D. Allen visited Lubbock.
  • She also appeared in Amarillo. So she’s already more active on the campaign trail than Ricardo Sanchez was…
  • Texas Senate Race Update for March 29, 2012

    Thursday, March 29th, 2012
  • Ted Cruz won the endorsement of Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn, which is a terrific pickup for him. He joins Jim DeMint and Rand Paul among sitting conservative Republican senators who have endorsed Cruz.
  • Cruz appeared (again) on the Mark Levin show:

  • Cruz will also be at a King Street Patriots rally in Houston on April 3.
  • Another week, another batch of business group endorsements for David Dewhurst, this time from the Independent Bankers Association of Texas
  • …as well as the Texas Apartment Association
  • …and the the Texas Society of Professional Engineers (probably more popular than bankers or apartment owners).
  • Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones says that David Dewhurst is a moderate by Republican standards: “Frequently used his powers of agenda control to help pass legislation opposed by the most conservative members of the Republican delegation. In addition, the best estimate of Dewhurst’s location along the liberal-conservative continuum which dominates voting in the Texas Senate suggests he is significantly less conservative than approximately one-third of the Republican delegation, particularly conservative outliers Brian Birdwell of Granbury and Dan Patrick of Houston….for Republicans located in the party’s centrist and moderate conservative wings, Dewhurst is likely to be ‘just right.'” It’s an interesting statistical analysis, and conforms to my own opinion of Dewhurst: Not a RINO, but not a true movement conservative, either.
  • The Dewhurst campaign is being more than a bit silly (again) in trying to link Cruz to George Soros because some of the other 1,300 lawyers at the same international law firm have done work for Soros. I’ve already debunked this. It’s actually fairly embarrassing that they’re still trying to make this argument.
  • Tom Leppert was endorsed by Dallas County Commissioner Maurine Dickey.
  • Craig James picks up a deep-pocketed backer in Walmart heir Alice Walton.
  • Both James and Cruz get some love in this Wall Street Journal piece.
  • Let’s give James props for putting this on his Facebook page, since it did make me smile:

  • There’s going to be a televised Senate debate April 13.
  • KERA interviewed the four candidates:

  • Want to watch a 38 minute interview with Democratic candidate Paul Sadler? Me neither, but I run a full-service blog:

    A Conversation with Paul Sadler from texastribune on Vimeo.

  • Interview With Mario Loyola on the Constitutionality of ObamaCare

    Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

    Given his background as both Solicitor General and a former fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation‘s Center for Tenth Amendment Studies, I was hoping to provide a mini-interview with Ted Cruz on the constitutional issues surrounding ObamaCare, but so far he has been too busy on the campaign trail to get back with answers. Fortunately, the current TPPF Center for Tenth Amendment Studies Director (and frequent National Review contributor) Mario Loyola was able to step up and answer some of the same questions.

    My questions are in italics.


    1. In the ObamaCare case the Supreme Court agreed to review, Florida vs. U.S. Health Department, Judge Roger Vinson ruled both that the individual mandate was not constitutional, and that ObamaCare was not severable, i.e. if any part of the law was ruled unconstitutional, all of it was unconstitutional. The 11th Circuit agreed that the individual mandate was unconstitutional but partially reversed Vinson by saying that it was severable from the rest of ObamaCare. Are the various clauses of ObamaCare severable, and have the courts previously ruled on the severability of law where no such severability was enumerated in the original statute?

    The chief modern Supreme Court case on severability is Alaska Airlines v. Brock (1987), which held that when one part of a law is found to be unconstitutional, the remainder will be upheld if (1) it will be “fully operative” as a law, unless (2) it is evident that Congress would not have enacted the remainder without the invalid part. In our Supreme Court amicus curiae brief on this issue, we argue that the Court should conduct a thorough analysis of statutory interactions, in order to understand how the insurance “reforms,” Medicaid expansion, and premium subsidies (essentially, Titles I and II of the ACA) were all interrelated with the individual mandate in the original legislative bargain. Without the mandate, these other provisions will not function as Congress intended and would never have passed.

    For example, at the heart of the ACA is its provision for “guaranteed issue” of health insurance, which requires health insurance companies to provide insurance for all applicants regardless of health status. In a pure “guaranteed issue” scenario, healthy people have an overwhelming incentive to drop their health insurance and wait until they are sick to get it. As healthy people leave the rolls, the per-unit cost of insuring the remaining pool of (riskier) insured rises, which pushes premiums up, which in turn drives more healthy people off the rolls. In the end, the only people who enroll are those who are actually sick, such that premiums approach the actual cost of health care. Under such a scenario, the insurance industry eventually collapses. The mandate is designed to prevent this adverse selection spiral by forcing everyone to have health insurance. Without the mandate, the insurance reforms won’t function as intended, and the resulting law is one that Congress never would have passed.

    2. Do recent cases like U.S. vs. Lopez and Seminole Tribe vs. Florida indicate that the Roberts Supreme Court has retreated from the high water mark of expansive interpretation of the Commerce Claus in Wickard vs. Filburn?

    Lopez punctured the common perception after Wickard that Congress could regulate whatever it wanted. But Lopez unfortunately embraced the logic of Wickard, and thus did little to restore the pre-New Deal balance. Lopez stands for little more than the nearly naked assertion that the commerce power must have some limit, and even that modest proposition is almost impossible to square with Wickard.

    The difficulty for the Court here is that Wickard’s central doctrine – that Congress can regulate purely intrastate or non-commercial activity so long as it has “substantial effects” on interstate commerce – has no logical stopping point. If the federal government can regulate any class of activity with a “substantial effect” on interstate commerce, it can regulate virtually all activity. The Supreme Court is unlikely to use this case as an opportunity to overturn Wickard, but it shouldn’t extend such a flawed precedent into the wholly unprecedented arena of forcing individuals to engage in certain activities in order to conscript them into the service of a federal regulatory scheme.

    3. From at least Lopez onward, Justice Clarence Thomas has been one of the leading voice for both constitutional originalism in general, and of a less expansive reading of the Commerce Claus in specific. Do you think his arguments have influenced judicial thinking in general, and his fellow Supreme Court justices specifically?

    Justice Thomas has been the most consistent of the justices in adhering to originalism as a method of interpreting the Constitution. If you look at Jan Crawford Greenberg’s book Supreme Conflict, it’s clear that Thomas’ convictions have affected the other justices, particularly the other justices among the Court’s so-called conservative block.

    4. Justice Anthony Kennedy is often considered the “swing vote” on the Supreme Court. Do you think Kennedy is receptive to constitutional originalism in general or a less expansive interpretation of the Commerce Claus specifically?

    The important thing to understand about Justice Kennedy here is that he is at heart a federalist. He is very concerned about maintaining the Constitution’s system of dual sovereignty and is skeptical of federal actions that encroach on traditional state prerogatives. You can see this in his concurrence in Lopez, as well as in his other writings. As Justice Kennedy notes in Lopez, democracy can only function if elected representatives are accountable to the people. When the federal government impinges upon areas that have been traditionally left to the states, this undermines democratic accountability by clouding the issue of who is ultimately responsible for a given law.


    Thanks to Mr. Loyola (and to TPPF) for taking the time out of his busy schedule to answer these questions. Yesterday I linked to his primer on the issues. Here’s Loyola, Richard Epstein, and Ilya Shapiro (talk about your legal power trios!) on why the individual mandate is not severable from the rest of ObamaCare.

    Blogroll Addition: The Texas Public Policy Foundation

    Monday, March 26th, 2012

    Today I added The Texas Public Policy Foundation to the blogroll. TPPF is the leading Texas think tank on both state and national issues, including the budget, education, and ObamaCare. Take, for example, this piece by Mario Loyola explaining why the individual mandate cannot be separated from the rest of ObamaCare.

    In addition to Loyola, TPPF has snagged an impressive array of fellows, including Richard Epstein, Arthur Laffer, and William Murchison, among many others. (Current Texas Senate candidate Ted Cruz also worked at their Center for Tenth Amendment Studies.)

    If you care about the deeper implications of today’s policy controversies, the work TPPF is producing is well worth your time and attention.

    Texas Senate Race Update for March 23, 2012

    Friday, March 23rd, 2012

    Wednesday night I finally got a chance to interview Craig James, so I hope to have the video of that up next week (though I have to warn you in advance that the technical quality is not as good as it could be, as the location (the Rudy’s on south 360) was less than ideal for filming, sound-wise). I also hope (if he has the time) to post an email mini-interview with Ted Cruz specifically focused on the Supreme Court taking up the ObamaCare case.

  • Ted Cruz picks up the endorsement of the Republican Liberty Caucus.
  • Cruz also got a generally fair and balanced piece on his arguing of cases before the Supreme Court by Kate Alexander in the Austin-American Statesman. Of all the MSM reporters covering the race, so far I’d say she’s doing the best job, something I never thought I would say about someone at the Statesman
  • He also appeared on the Mark Levin Show.
  • He also produced a TV ad that offers a subset of last week’s radio ad:

  • National Journal says the Cruz ad buy on Fox News is $222,000.
  • Craig James joins the chorus of those complaining about Dewhurst ducking debates.
  • And the one upcoming debate Dewhurst is not ducking? Turns out one of the hosts is backing a Dewhurst SuperPac That’s some might fine objective journalism you’ve got going on there, Lou…
  • Big Jolly is impressed with Dewhurst and Tom Leppert’s campaigns.
  • Leppert campaigned in Longview.
  • Leppert appeared on the “Dr. Carol Show” (I’m assuming it’s this one, which seems to be out of Austin, and not the “Holistic Veterinarian”):

  • Craig James gets a Texas Monthly profile. It’s an interesting piece.
  • The Houston Chronicle‘s Joe Holley also speaks with James.
  • Glenn Addison campaigns in Lubbock.
  • The Wall Street Journal offers up a surprisingly bland and insight-free snapshot of the race. Like the mashed potatoes on your cafeteria tray, it’s strictly filler.
  • Paul Sadler, Addie Dainell Allen and Grady Yarbrough all appeared at a debate in Dallas, the details of which, alas, are hidden behind the Dallas Morning News paywall. But where was Sean Hubbard?
  • Gun Owners of America Endorses Ted Cruz

    Monday, March 19th, 2012

    The Ted Cruz campaign announced today that he had been endorsed by the Gun Owners of America.

    This is a significant pickup for the Cruz campaign, since David Dewhurst was previously endorsed by the NRA for Lt. Governor. Thus far Dewhurst has gotten a the lion’s share of business group endorsements, split social conservative groups with Cruz, and essentially garnered none of the economic conservative or Tea Party endorsements, which Cruz has been dominating. The Gun Owners of America is a big win for Cruz, since Texas has lots of gun owners. My guess (and it’s just a guess) is that the NRA will either issue no endorsement in the race, but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that they could endorse Dewhurst. (How the NRA does endorsements is a somewhat murky area I don’t fully understand, especially when they candidates in question have no legislative record.)

    Gun Owners of America is a smaller and newer organization than the NRA, and have been far-stauncher in support of issues like concealed carry that the NRA was initially more cautious on. It’s a good endorsement for Cruz, and one that will solidify his position as the candidate most likely to be in a runoff with Dewhurst.

    Texas Senate Race Update for March 15, 2012

    Thursday, March 15th, 2012

    It’s been a very quiet week in the Senate race. I suspect that some of the candidates had already scheduled vacation or break time following the original March primary date, so I expect things to pick up shortly. But Both Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst released ads mentioning their fathers:

  • Ted Cruz has released two radio ads, one called “Fighter” and the other “Delivered”:

  • Forbes columnist Louis Woodhill looks at Ted Cruz’s economic program. He generally likes them, but doesn’t go far enough in some areas, and goes to far in seeking entitlement reform. I agree with the former and disagree with the latter.
  • David Dewhurst poached in Tom Leppert’s backyard by snaring the endorsements of six former Dallas County GOP leaders.
  • Dewhurst and Leppert both used the same March Madness Bracket Gag.
  • Dewhurst also has a new TV ad mentioning his father’s WWII service:

  • Leppert gets a profile in the Houston Chronicle.
  • Robert T. Garrett in The Dallas Morning news says that the “guilt by association” wars between Cruz, Dewhurst, and Craig James is more than a little silly. Unless there’s more to the Tony Podesta story than the Cruz campaign has been able to bring forth, I tend to agree.
  • Garrett also examines RedState’s comparison of Dewhurst to Charlie Crist. Certainly I’ve done my share of criticizing Dewhurst, but I believe the comparison with Crist is largely unwarranted.
  • James campaigns in Midland.
  • He also seems to be doing something of a straddle on the Texas Women’s Health Program issue:”I’m all for protecting life. I’m pro-life. I’m also for taking care of women and their health so there’s a balance somewhere in there, personal responsibility, and if they have a need for things, that they need to be able to take care of it themselves. If they can’t, then there needs to be a service to help them take care of their health issues.”
  • The Texas Tribune talks about Texas having a conservative core of voters, and how that’s affecting the presidential and Senate races (among others). It’s actually not too bad as these things go, but I do wonder if anyone has ever done a similar profile on “extremely liberal” voters?
  • Finally, I still haven’t been able to meet with David Dewhurst or Craig James for interviews. If the campaigns of either are reading this, and your candidate will be in either Austin or Houston sometime in the next month, please contact me so we can set up an interview.
  • Texas Senate Race Update for March 6, 2012

    Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

    Today was going to be the day Texans went to the polls, but the redistricting lawsuit put the kibosh on that plan. Now we get six more weeks of winter twelve more weeks of campaigning.

  • David Dewhurst denies that the meeting he attending in Washington, DC at Democrat Tony Podesta’s house was a fundraiser, and he says the people attending were Republicans who worked for the Podesta Group, not Democrats. I would link directly to Dewhurst’s denial, but the recent reorganization of the Andrew Breitbart empire (evidently already planned before his untimely death) has broken the links.
  • David Dewhurst also hits Cruz for (in their words) “Ted Cruz’s close ties to the Obama Administration.” How close? Big donations to Democrats from…partners at the Morgan, Lewis and Bockius law where Cruz is also partner. Given that there are some 1,300 lawyers employed by Morgan, Lewis and Bockius, of which some 469 are partners, and the firm isn’t named Morgan, Lewis, Bockius and Cruz, this is pretty weak sauce. (Weaker even than the working for Red China slam, which at least had the virtue of involving Cruz directly.)
  • Cruz won three more straw polls: the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club, Brazos County GOP and New Braunfels GOP Women. However, do note that the Cruz campaign’s claim that Cruz “has now beaten all the major candidates in 20 straw polls by wide margins” is carefully phrased to omit the fact that Glenn Addison won two straw polls in that timeframe…
  • The Houston Chronicle profiles Ted Cruz.
  • The “insiders” polled by the Texas Tribune were somewhat split, but 62% think the Republican Senate race will end up in a runoff. They also think Greg Abbott can take Rick Perry in the 2014 Governor’s race, should Perry run again. Also this from one respondent to the “biggest surprise” question: “Doggett switches to U.S. Senate race.” I’ve had similar thoughts myself. With his $3 million war chest and name recognition, Doggett could easily win the Democratic primary…only to be creamed by Cruz or Dewhurst in the general election. Hmmm, lose a Senate race in the general election, or potentially lose your congressional seat in the Democratic primary? Decisions, decisions. (It’s not to be, as Doggett, as expected, filed for the District 35 race today.)
  • Blogger Reverend Rubicon makes the case for Ted Cruz, and for ideology over power-seeking.
  • Cruz hits Dewhurst over spending:

  • Tom Leppert wants to take on David Dewhurst one on one. I’m sure he does.
  • The Chronicle looks at the various charitable giving of various candidates.
  • Craig James appeared on the Jon-David Wells show on KSKY in the Metroplex:

    Also, the James campaign might want to know that its fancy media grid page won’t launch a vido in my version of Firefox…

  • Democrat Paul Sadler has revamped his website, and now has news and press release sections.
  • Democrat Sean Hubbard has finally broken the 1,000 Facebook followers barrier.
  • Texas Senate Race Update for February 23, 2012

    Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

    Trying to catch back up with the Senate race after my trip, so some of this may be slightly old news:

  • The biggest recent news in the Senate race is the newest Texas Tribune/UT poll that shows David Dewhurst leading the race at 38%, but with Ted Cruz up to 27%. Tom Leppert and Craig James are tied way back in third place at 7% each, an outcome that must be discouraging for the Leppert team, given that he’s been running for over a year and James has only been running for two months. Glenn Addison and Lela Pittenger are the only other candidates to get any support at all at 1% each. However, the margin of error is ±5%. Full results in PDF form here.
  • Dewhurst managed to pull in big bucks from a big donor in Washington. A big democratic donor. “He was doing what he always does: reaching across the aisle. He’s not a Washington insider yet, and he’s already a Washington insider. No wonder the Texas press has so often labeled him ‘bipartisan’…This is a critical race for the Tea Party and for conservatives across the country. If Dewhurst wins, we’ll have yet another squish on our hands – and a squish who is only too eager to rub elbows with the liberal establishment.” (Hat tip: Must Read Texas.)
  • This Kate Alexander piece in the Austin-American Statesman is pretty interesting, not so much for the information there (BattleSwarm readers will find very little I haven’t already covered), but for the approach. Overall the piece is probably mildly negative on Cruz, but not unfairly negative. Unlike, say, certain of Robert T. Garrett’s pieces in The Dallas Morning News, the issues she raises are generally real and non-trivial, though not ones that most conservatives will find of burning importance.
  • Cruz womps the field in a survey of the North Texas Tea Party.
  • Cruz appeared on KYFO in Lubbock.
  • The Dewhurst campaign attacks Cruz for “not supporting Sen. John Cornyn for Republican Senate Whip.”

    Cruz has previously told reporters it’s more important to elect Senators who would pledge fealty to a divisive challenge to GOP leadership than it is for Republicans to regain its U.S. Senate majority this year. Cruz’s glaring lack of support for Sen. Cornyn, who’s now responsible for Republican efforts to retake that majority, effectively puts Cruz’s personal ambition and interests above conservative attempts to organize and stop the Obama agenda.

    So Dewhurst is attacking Cruz for actually wanting to enact conservative ideas rather than just paying lip-service to it while toeing the Republican establishment line. Got it. (Maybe someone on Team Dewhurst might want to take a look at this.)

  • Cruz elaborates on the subject.
  • Establishment vs. the Tea Party.
  • Dewhurst appeared on KCRS:

  • There was another candidate forum that David Dewhurst skipped. Attendees included Cruz, Tom Leppert, Craig James, Glenn Addison, Lela Pittenger, and…Andrew Castanuela? Did no one inform the organizers never filed for the Republican primary?
  • Scott Haddock interviews Tom Leppert Part 1 and Part 2.
  • The Texas Tribune did an interview with Craig James:

  • Glenn Addison gets a profile by the Houston Chronicle‘s Joe Holley. Addison’s evident friendliness with the John Birch society (yes, it’s still around) is not a plus in my book. I am gratified to see that Holley, who I dinged heavily, correctly lists both the number of candidates for each party, as well as their names.
  • That same TT/UT poll shows the Democratic side of the race virtually tied, with Sean Hubbard at 12%, Paul Sadler, Daniel Boone, and Addie D. Allen all tied at 10%, and John Morton (who the Democrats kicked off the ballot two months ago) at 3%. That’s good news for Hubbard (frontrunner again!) and Allen (whose campaign might be charitably called “low-key”), and bad news for anointed Democratic establishment candidate Sadler and “Gene Kelly 2.0” Boone. But the margin of error for Democrats is even higher at ±6%, so it’s still anyone’s race at this point.
  • Democrat Addie D. Allen now has a website (though it just has the GoDaddy parking page for now) and a Twitter feed.
  • University of Texas Democrats endorse Paul Sadler. That should be good for an extra five, maybe even six votes, easy…
  • Daniel Boone appeared before the Llano Tea Party, which I think makes him the first Democratic senate candidate to take up the repeated Tea Party offers for Democrats to speak. Good for him.
  • Pro-tip for Boone: Most people put the newest content at the top of their blog, not the oldest.
  • As far as I can tell, Craig James, Charles Holcomb, Ben Gambini, Joe Agris and Addie D. Allen have not filed Q4 reports with the FEC. Maybe none of them conducted any fundraising in the quarter.
  • Big Jolly Picks Up the Senate Race Torch and Runs With It

    Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

    I just got back from a business trip abroad, so it’s taking me a little time to get back up to speed. One thing I did want to note was David Jennings of Big Jolly Politics taking a couple of my senate race posts and running with them.

    First, he took a look at that donation chart I did, and then produced several additional interesting charts. He also dug deeper into Dewhurst’s 800+ page Q4 report and noticed something that I didn’t, namely that Dewhurst loaned his campaign $2 million, then the campaign paid off the loan four days later, then loaned his campaign another $2 million on December 31. Which means he spent $2.4 million, not $4.4 million, in Q4. Why he did that I couldn’t tell you, unless there’s some sort of campaign finance reason, or he wants to make it look like he put more money into his campaign than he actually did.

    I do, however, have differences with Jennings on interpreting the data. When he says “Much has been made of Dewhurst’s and Leppert’s ability to self-fund,” that’s like saying “Much has been made of Wolfgang Mozart and Antonio Salieri’s composing ability.” Tom Leppert has a net worth of $12 million, David Dewhurst has a net worth of $225 million. Leppert simply can’t self fund to the extent that Dewhurst can, which is probably a big reason why Leppert went from throwing in $1 million in self-funding in both Q1 and Q2 to only half that in Q3 and Q4.

    Likewise, his contention that Leppert has slipped into second place relies on taking that internal Dewhurst poll as gospel, which (as I’ve argued time and time again) we can’t do due not only to its provenience, but also the opaque nature of its methodology. And his list of Cruz “stumbles” is mostly much ado about nothing, as I don’t see anything on his list that would cause Republican voters to change their vote.

    Still, they’re interesting posts on the race, even if I disagree with some of the conclusions.