Posts Tagged ‘Beto O’Rourke’

O’Rourke O’Running

Thursday, March 14th, 2019

Now we know what Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke was waiting for to jump into the Presidential race: a fawning Vanity Fair profile complete with Annie Leibovitz photographs.

How fawning?

Behind the door, in the O’Rourke living room, a floor-to-ceiling bookshelf contains a section for rock memoirs (Bob Dylan’s Chronicles, a favorite) and a stack of LPs (the Clash, Nina Simone) but also a sizable collection of presidential biographies, including Robert Caro’s work on Lyndon B. Johnson. Arranged in historical order, the biographies suggest there’s been some reflection on the gravity of the presidency. But there’s also some political poetry to it, a sense that O’Rourke might be destined for this shelf. He has an aura. Most places he goes in El Paso, he’s dogged by cries of “Beto! Beto!” Oprah Winfrey, who helped anoint Barack Obama in 2008, practically begged him to run at an event in New York City at the beginning of February.

More fawning:

Settling into an armchair in his living room, he tries to make sense of his rise. “I honestly don’t know how much of it was me,” he says. “But there is something abnormal, super-normal, or I don’t know what the hell to call it, that we both experience when we’re out on the campaign trail.”

O’Rourke and his wife, Amy, an educator nine years his junior, both describe the moment they first witnessed the power of O’Rourke’s gift. It was in Houston, the third stop on O’Rourke’s two-year Senate campaign against Ted Cruz. “Every seat was taken, every wall, every space in the room was filled with probably a thousand people,” recalls Amy O’Rourke. “You could feel the floor moving almost. It was not totally clear that Beto was what everybody was looking for, but just like that people were so ready for something. So that was totally shocking. I mean, like, took-my-breath-away shocking.”

For O’Rourke, what followed was a near-mystical experience. “I don’t ever prepare a speech,” he says. “I don’t write out what I’m going to say. I remember driving to that, I was, like, ‘What do I say? Maybe I’ll just introduce myself. I’ll take questions.’ I got in there, and I don’t know if it’s a speech or not, but it felt amazing. Because every word was pulled out of me. Like, by some greater force, which was just the people there. Everything that I said, I was, like, watching myself, being like, How am I saying this stuff? Where is this coming from?

Generational fawning:

At 46, O’Rourke is only a couple of years younger than former rival Ted Cruz. But part of the excitement, and the content of his potential candidacy, is generational. Whereas Obama is from the tail end of the baby boom, Beto O’Rourke is quintessentially Generation X, weaned on Star Wars and punk rock and priding himself on authenticity over showmanship and a healthy skepticism of the mainstream.

The word “honesty” gets thrown around. “O’Rourke came off as free of political calculation, as if his charisma were a mere side effect of Beto just being Beto.”

Tonstant weader fwowed up.

The tone is so hagiographic it’s a mild surprise that by the end of it Beto’s not wandering the streets of El Paso curing the sick with the laying of hands.

They do address the intersectional elephant in the room:

O’Rourke is acutely aware, too, of perhaps his biggest vulnerability—being a white man in a Democratic Party yearning for a woman or a person of color, a Kamala Harris or a Cory Booker. “The government at all levels is overly represented by white men,” he says. “That’s part of the problem, and I’m a white man. So if I were to run, I think it’s just so important that those who would comprise my team looked like this country. If I were to run, if I were to win, that my administration looks like this country. It’s the only way I know to meet that challenge.”

Expect the MSM backers of Kamala Harris to hit these points hard, while Beto backers magically ignore them. Being a rich, privileged white male is a sin, unless you’re a rich, privileged, dreamy white Democratic male with fawning media coverage.

Jim Geraghty thinks we’re in for a repeat of Obamamania:

The insufferable tidal wave of Betomania is coming…

Here we go again.

The magazine covers and posters . . .

. . . the graffiti murals . . .

. . . the gushing media profiles, the adoring interviews with late-night hosts, the hagiographic documentary, the t-shirts, the celebrity endorsements and appearances, the social-media mania, the volunteers creating their own designs for posters and logos and campaign imagery . . . we’ll probably get the flash mobs from 2018 restarted, too.

Except the last time we did this, all of the hype and hoopla was for a once-obscure slender guy in his mid-to-late 40s who had been in the legislature for a while, hadn’t been able to get many pieces of legislation passed whether his party was in the majority or minority, who boasted about his across-the-aisle friendships but who had never really defied his party’s orthodoxy, who had little or no executive experience, who could do mundane tasks such as driving or sweating and have them described by political reporters like he was completing the 12 labors of Hercules, who was full of charisma but vague enough in his answers and agenda to be a blank slate to everyone looking for an ideal candidate. Same script, slightly different leading man.

We’re doing all of the Obamamania stuff again, except this time with a white guy from Texas. It’s all starting up again: the retro hipster t-shirts, the bracelets on Etsy, the votive candles.

Snip.

If Beto O’Rourke had an “R” after his name instead of a “D,” the world would know a lot more about the less-appealing aspects of his life story. Not just the DUI, but his private-sector development career that used eminent domain and gentrified poor Latino neighborhoods, and marrying into a billionaire’s family. The image celebrated in these gushing profiles doesn’t match the reality. He was never in the military but talked about veterans’ issues so much that some people think he was. He’s not Latino, but his “rise fuels hope for Latino Democrats.” He’s the outsider who was in elected office from 2005 to 2018. He’s the modest everyman with a net worth of $9 million. He’s a boarding-school-attending son of a judge who escaped serious consequence for not just the DUI but also burglary charges.

This Obamamania parallel is true, up to a point. But O’Rourke isn’t going to get the huge boost provided by a lifetime of liberal white guilt.

O’Rourke clearly brings strengths to the race, including personal wealth, notable fundraising prowess, and a pretty young-ish face that liberal women seem to swoon over. But the truth is that O’Rourke has never won a race outside his hometown of El Paso, and polls show him in single digits, behind Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. There’s a world of difference between scooping up Democratic dollars when you’re running against Ted Cruz as opposed to running against other high-profile Democrats with their own fan clubs.

Expect more fawning media coverage to boost him, but also strong pushback from Kamala Harris partisans, and possibly Julian Castro, who has to miffed at the fake Texas Hispanic getting ten times the attention of the real one. In addition to Harris and Castro, O’Rourke’s entry in the race probably hurts Biden and John Delaney (same “lane”), Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar (I bet “dreamy” is going to beat out “feminist duty” for a long of 20- and 30-something women), and Pete Buttigieg (“look at me I’m young”). Maybe he doesn’t hurt Warren, whose supporters I think skew older.

You know who he probably doesn’t hurt at all? Bernie Sanders. His fans don’t seem to be into “dreamy” or “young.”

It’s gonna be a hell of a race…

Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for March 11, 2019

Monday, March 11th, 2019

Sherrod Brown is Out, as are (to recapitulate last week’s mini-update) Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Eric Holder and Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley. Evidently the clown car was just too crowded for them to contemplate climbing aboard. That leaves Biden and Beto as the only two undecided “big fish.”

A lot of Democratic Presidential hopefuls were in Austin for SXSW: “Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., will speak on Saturday, while former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee will speak Sunday.” And Beto O’Rourke is also there pimping a movie about his failed senate run. John Delany was there as well.

Des Moines Register poll shows Biden first with 27%, Sanders a close second with 25%, and everyone else in single digits.

538 Presidential roundup.

538 polls.

Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out. Though his law firm did file for bankruptcy.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. “Mulling 2020 run, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado stops by Jaffrey firm.” That’s Jaffrey, New Hampshire, population 5,457, which does rather suggest he’s still interested in running…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. In his week’s Hamlet watch, Biden’s chances of running are put at 95%, and is now expected to announce in mid-April.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Out.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Brady Quirk-Garvan, who has served as the Chairman of the Charleston County Democratic Party for five years, announced that he is stepping down in order to endorse Senator Cory Booker for President.”
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Out. This is a surprise, since he looked like he was getting in. “Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) announced Thursday that he will not run for president in 2020, just after completing a tour of early caucus and primary states. Brown said in a statement that he was confident other candidates would adopt his political mantra — ‘the dignity of work’ — and that he would continue working against President Donald Trump in the Senate instead of joining the crowded Democratic primary field.” Yeah, literally no one is using that as a Democratic Presidential rallying cry. It’s all about the federal government handing out free stuff (Medicare for all, guaranteed basic income, reparations), illegal aliens and social justice warrior garbage.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning Toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. He’s hired an advisor for his run.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. This week he got a Newsweek profile.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He turned the pandering up to 11 and embraced reparations. “If under the Constitution we compensate people because we take their property, why wouldn’t you compensate people who actually were property?” Maybe because there is literally no one alive who was a slave in the United States before slavery was outlawed by the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865…
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Out. It was obvious after her humiliating defeat by Donald Trump that she would never be President of the United States of America, and I doubt Grandma Death is up to the physical rigors of a Presidential campaign (she certainly wasn’t last time).
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Visiting South Carolina.
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. He gets a Rolling Stone profile and interview:

    His unorthodox proposals is his belief that the core of the Democratic voter base still lies near the center. He supports a universal health care system, but not Medicare-for-all. He wants to bring back the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has been derided by progressives. He’s cited eliminating the national debt as a priority. He’s also an avowed capitalist. “This primary is going to be a choice between socialism and a more just form of capitalism,” he said in a statement after Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy late last month. “I believe in capitalism, the free markets, and the private economy. I don’t believe socialism is the answer and I don’t believe it’s what the American people want.”

    From the interview:

    Listen, I think Democrats are more right about policy than Republicans are, which is why I’m a strong Democrat. But I’m not walking around saying every Republican I know is a horrible human being who doesn’t have any good ideas or have anything to contribute to our country. It’s ridiculous. But if you listen to the parties, that’s what they’re basically telling us and there’s really been a vacuum of principled leadership.

  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. This week’s Gabbard drama: her refusal to call Syrian President Bashar Assad a war criminal. On one hand, yeah he is and she should. On the other, this will be a top ten issue for approximately no one voting in the Democratic Presidential primary, and is being ginned up as a controversy because Gabbard is seen as a threat to media favorite Kamala Harris. She also filed a bill to end federal marijuana prohibition. Good for her.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. Here’s a piece on her record as a flip-flopper.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. She was campaigning in Myrtle Beach. Here’s a write-up on the San Francisco crime lab scandal that occurred under her term as DA. “With the local criminal-justice system at risk of devolving into chaos, Harris took the extraordinary step of dismissing about 1,000 drug-related cases, including many in which convictions had been obtained and sentences were being served.” Also, she thinks America hasn’t had “a real conversation on race.” You know, the conversation where people from the party of Ralph “Klan outfit” Northam and Mary Ann “N-word district” Lisanti get to lecture us about how we’re all racists for not voting for Democrats…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Twitter. Facebook. How Hickenlooper won as a longshot for Denver mayor in 2003. Also: “I’m happy as a capitalist.” Though Ann Althouse dings him for having to be prodded into saying so.
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder: Out. Not a surprise. He was so marginal I accidentally omitted him from last week’s roundup and no one noticed.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Evidently Inslee’s “climate change” mania is a threat to ethanol, which may not go over well in Iowa.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. She’s campaigning in Tampa Bay and talking about climate change. The Florida primary is two weeks after Super Tuesday, so it’s rather a leap of faith to assume she’ll still be in the race.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? Evidently a bunch of big money donors are waiting on his decision.
  • Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? He talked about running as a national security-focused candidate, a feat that no Democrat has managed since 1960. “Moulton told me he will run through VFW halls and college campuses, leaning in on a national-security focus which, even in a field this huge, he is all alone in focusing on—a stance that not only differentiates him, but could eventually draw the others out on foreign affairs.” If he got in he would be competing with Biden and Delany for the “surprisingly sane for a Democrat” lane. Upgrade over Doubtful.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. More on his “I’ve made a decision but I’m not going to tell you” game. “Is it Beto?” “No, it is just a boy.” “Beto says he can not come today, but will come tomorrow.”
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Leaning Toward In? At least he seems to have some inkling of the problem:

    “Just watching this economic train wreck happen for 30 years and really not seeing anybody in the democratic party that even gets it and that to me is really frustrating,” said Ryan. “I think our community, and communities like ours, need a voice that understands what happened, how the workers have been left out, and where we need to go. I think I could offer that kind of vision for the country because we’ve been doing it here but also know that if we’re going to move forward, we have to cut these workers in and that’s not part of the conversation right now.”

    Ryan says his frustration has been building for years and he’s not hearing and hasn’t heard for a few cycles that democratic candidates are truly connecting with American workers.

    “That concern that is here is not being translated to Washington. I try, and there are others that do, but it’s not penetrated this coastal, the coastal domination of the Democratic Party,” said Ryan. “I ran against Nancy Pelosi, primarily because I thought this message is not getting out, no one is listening. President Trump won the presidency because Democrats forgot to talk to workers, people who take a shower after work as opposed to people who just take a shower before work and those are the people that we grow up with here, those are our family members, and I’m upset because their voices aren’t being heard. I want to do something about it, and whether that’s run for President or not, that’s where my heart is.”

  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Senate Democrats have warned to Sanders (though evidence suggests the DNC hasn’t). Also, even though Bernie’s running for President, he still has a backup plan:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. “Eric Swalwell wants to be president, and why the heck not?” I think the words “Eric Swalwell” adequately answer that question. “Now that Swalwell is an-all-but-declared candidate for president, the challenge is getting others to take him seriously.” Does rather sound like he’s getting in…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Daily Beast writer says:

    From what I see, Elizabeth Warren is running the best race so far by miles.

    Warren is doing something none of the rest of them are doing. She’s running for president. The others are just positioning. I suppose that’s not necessarily true of Bernie Sanders, who has one gear and we know what it is, and we already know from last time what his positions are (although he has added a wealth tax, which I endorse heartily). But all the others are running for wokest progressive. Warren’s running for president.

    What do I mean? She’s put out a bunch of tough, meaty proposals. They mean something. They communicate: “This is what I will do, and it will constitute serious change.” Last week’s proposal to break up the tech companies was ambitious and brave. Most Democrats are afraid of tech money. The Democrats have taken back the House, and they’re going to be holding dozens of good and necessary hearings. But here’s one hearing I’m not holding my breath waiting for them to convene: a panel on regulating Facebook.

    But Warren went right at it. Monopoly power. It’s (yet another) huge and under-discussed crisis in this country, a grotesque distortion of the market that hurts consumers in a hundred ways every day. If you want to learn more about monopoly power generally and the tech giants specifically, go visit the website of the fine people at the Open Markets Institute. But suffice it to say for present purposes that Warren has laid out a plan that the anti-monopoly experts say is intelligent and practical.

    That’s just the latest example. She’s made a bold proposal to limit shareholder power, and another one calling for universal child care. And of course there was the wealth tax, which my Beast colleague Jonathan Alter praised to the heavens a few weeks back. She’s putting the meat on the bones of new Democratic economic message, and no one else is even a close second so far.

    Needless to say, I don’t agree with the writer’s policy positions or his take on the state of the race, but I offer it as a data point.

  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. Hmmm:

    Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson, a pair of little-known 2020 contenders, both say they are on track to meet the grassroots donation threshold set by the DNC to get into the first debate in June. They’d join Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, both African-American ministers and civil rights activists, as the only non-elected officials to make the first Democratic presidential debate in the past 40 years.

    To qualify, candidates must get at least 1 percent support in three party-approved public polls — or receive campaign donations from 65,000 individuals with a minimum of 200 donors apiece in 20 states, the DNC said in February. If there are more than 20 candidates who pass one of those thresholds, only candidates who meet both polling and fundraising criteria will be given primacy, with the large debate field randomly split into two groups over two nights.

  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. See the Marianne Williamson debate bit above. I have a Republican friend who said she donated a dollar to get Yang into the debates to screw with Democrats.
  • Democratic Party Presidential Clown Car Update for March 4, 2019

    Monday, March 4th, 2019

    Hickenlooper is In, Inslee is more officially In, and the B team (Biden, Bloomberg and Beto) are still Hamleting. It’s your Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update!

    The Washington Post plays the answer top Google questions about the candidates game. Got a chuckle out of this on Pete Buttigieg: “Not only would he be the youngest person ever elected president, he would also be both the first gay president and the first president who liked University of Notre Dame athletics.”

    538 polls which candidate early primary state Democratic activists are considering backing. Finally, a poll Kamala Harris comes out on top of! She’s followed by Booker, Brown, Warren, Klobuchar, Biden and Sanders. Biggest drop between November and February? O’Rourke, whose support halved.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. He says people are tired of “rage Olympics,” applauded President Donald Trump’s “America will never be a socialist country” line and says Medicare for all is a pipe-dream. It will be interesting to see if that message gets any traction in a crowed field…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Says his family has signed off on him running. Have some Washington Post consensus opinion on why Biden should run. Oh, and Biden said something nice about his successor, Vice President Mike Pence, which is right up there with the Rape of Nanking or using the wrong pronoun among Democratic Media Complex activists…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning Towards Running. He’s evidently interviewing potential staffers in Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s also supposedly looking at Manhattan office space for his campaign. Because running a campaign from New York City worked out so well for Hillary Clinton…
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He campaigned in South Carolina. He’s also leading the endorsement race.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. “U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is starting the final leg of his tour of the early presidential primary and caucus states. As he visits South Carolina, Brown says he’s learned a lot as he gets closer to making a decision on a possible presidential run.” Decision? If you’re touring Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, you’ve already decided to get in…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. With all the attention on Iowa, New hampshire and Couth Carolina, Buttigieg is campaigning at…Scripps College in Claremont, California. I actually had to look that up. It’s part of the Los Angeles sprawl, just west of Rancho Cucamonga…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Said he’s going to run on education, including pre-K funding. (Tiny problem: It doesn’t work. But don’t expect any of Castro’s rivals to voice that heretical thought…)
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But check out this ABC news headline: “Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and other 2020 hopefuls honor march on Selma”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Not even his wife thinks he should run. Of course, that’s the same wife that can’t account for $850 million in mental health funding
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Here’s how Delaney has been campaigning:

    You go to Dewitt, Tipton, Glenwood, Denison, Alba, Knoxville, Perry, Grimes and nine other places this year alone—emphasizing the small Iowa towns that seldom see a presidential candidate. You take out an ad during the Super Bowl two years before the Iowa caucuses — an unheard-of extravagance that no one dared try before. You open six campaign offices in Iowa — before your better-known rivals have opened even one. You win the endorsement of four county central Democratic committees in Iowa — long before the top-tier candidates have lassoed any.

    And you make 24 campaign trips to Iowa and another 14 to New Hampshire, the sites of the first two political tests of the 2020 campaign, states that pride themselves on being the political equivalent of the Cheers bar — places where, the civic folklore says, everyone knows your name.

    Everyone in the political world knows your name, unless, of course, your name is John Delaney.

  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Paste offers up the far-left peacenik case for Gabbard.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Big tobacco, big soda, big booze, big burger, casinos, and Viagra might sound like the ingredients for an extremely lively and health-hazardous night out on the town. They also represent some of New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s major financial backers.”
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Harris wants all the California Benjamins. Politico says she’s she’s just too awesome at connecting emotionally with voters to offer actual details or plans. “She’s been noncommittal or vague on a range of issues.” One plan floated: legalizing prostitution. My libertarian half both agrees and points out that it’s a state level issue, and thus nothing the President can or should affect. That WaPo Google answer bit above offers this tidbit: “Her sister is Maya Harris, a former adviser to the 2016 campaign of Hillary Clinton who now acts as a political analyst for MSNBC.” It’s incest all the way down…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Website. Twitter. Announced this morning. His kickoff rally is in Denver March 7. Upgrade over leaning toward in.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Already had him as in, but now he’s made it even more official, running as the Climate Change Scold. “2020 Hopeful Jay Inslee Goes National With A Climate Agenda He Failed To Implement In His Own State.”
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. Hey, Vox says they’re monitoring him.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Here’s the roundup list of all the allegations of her abusing staff. I hear she once shot a staffer in Reno, just to watch her die…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? It’s been radio silence from Clintonus Toadius Maximus.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful. Not hearing much on him. But he got more support in that 538 activists poll than Castro or O’Rourke.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Seems doubtful, but he says he’s still considering a run. Maybe he just enjoys the Morning Joe attention…
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. He’s made up his mind! But he’s not telling us. Yet. More from The Dallas Morning News, if you can get past the beg blocker.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe Shading Toward In? Says he’s strong considering it. It’s like a friggng Hamlet convention here…
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Held his first campaign rally in Brooklyn. This just in: The Democratic Party is still trying to screw Bernie:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. He’s in New Hampshire. Evidently what Swalwell learned from the 2016 Presidential election is that the path to the White House is tweeting crazy shit.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She’s evidently having an Iowa Black Caucus Event, and she has other events scheduled in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. He was on Tucker Carlson, and an amazingly similar interview, also on Fox, with Not Quite Tucker Carlson. (Is that Pete Hegseth? I’m asking here, I honestly don’t know.)
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for February 25, 2019

    Monday, February 25th, 2019

    I updated last week’s clown car update to note that Bernie Sanders was In, and he promptly raised $6 million for his campaign. Now we’re waiting on the other three Bs (Biden, Beto and Bloomberg) to make up their minds.

    538 Presidential roundup.

    538 polls.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    15 Democratic contenders ranked by a Washington Post columnist, with Harris at the top, just in case you needed a nice tall glass of consensus MSM grab-fanny.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Learning toward In. All people know about him is a speech slamming Ted Cruz. Like slamming President Trump, that’s not exactly going to make you stand out from the field. Also, if he does run, his brother, James Bennet, will step down as New York Times option editor. Thanks for reminding everyone, yet again, how incestuously intermixed our elite mainstream media is with the Democratic Party.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Hamlet is still expected to run. 538 notes that Biden not running wouldn’t be unprecedented, with Gore 2004 as the closest example, but the latter had just come off a huge losing general election effort. Vox wonders what happens if he doesn’t run.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning toward In. In a shocking development, people who have received money from Michael Bloomberg are quite enthused with Michael Bloomberg running for President.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Silicon Valley loves Cory Booker. That could be a problem for him.”

    Booker, long the darling of the tech industry and some of its marquee leaders, is traipsing into a transformed Silicon Valley when he touches down in town this weekend for his first fundraising trip here since he announced he was running for president. Friday lunch guests at the San Francisco home of David Shuh, Friday dinner guests at the 9,300-square-foot Piedmont home of Ali Partovi, and Saturday evening guests at the Atherton home of Gary Lauder (an heir to the Estée Lauder beauty empire) are paying up to $2,800 each to rub shoulders with Cory Booker.

    Then again, most have probably met him before. The presidential candidate has collected half a million dollars from the internet industry over his five years in the Senate, from people like LinkedIn’s Hoffman, Salesforce’s Marc Benioff, Google’s Eric Schmidt, Emerson Collective founder Laurene Powell Jobs, and early Facebook exec Sean Parker.

    Why? He is culturally of this place, donors say.

    But times have changed, and Silicon Valley is no longer merely an ATM for Cory Booker.

    Twitter is no longer primarily a place to find an elderly man snowtrapped in his home in Newark, like Booker once did — it is now also a cesspool of hate and misinformation. Mark Zuckerberg is no longer a hero brandishing a $100 million check in a well-meaning attempt to save Newark’s schools, like Booker once described him — he is a bogeyman who badly mishandled our last election and is now as divisive as any of the people running for president.

    Silicon Valley is itself a minefield that in some ways sums up the broader political challenge for Booker in 2020: He’s running as a liberal on issues including tech regulation, but the progressive left holds him in suspicion — and he could face more as he begins to court tech money more openly.

  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. Say’s he’ll make a decision next month and swears he’ll be the most pro-union candidate. Would being the darling of an ever-fading part of the blue coalition be enough to win in a divided field? Maybe.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. He gets lots of good press…in Indiana. Elsewhere? Not so much.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. He was in Denison, Iowa. Want a live feed of his Iowa tour? If so, what’s wrong with you?
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But she met with Biden and Klobuchar. Her endorsement could be a serious boost for Klobuchar. For Biden? Doubt it.
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. He appeared in Iowa for crowds of 20 to 40.
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. He appeared on The Steele Report in Waterloo, Iowa. Said voters are not interested in socialism. I’m starting to get the hunch that Delany may hang around in the field longer than you might think.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know About Tulsi Gabbard, including the fact she’s of American Samoan, not Indian, decent. Gets a Guardian profile.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. She hired two more Iowa staffers and Pfizer executive Sally Susman is hosting a fundraiser for her. And she’s already losing to ranch dressing.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Says she’s not a socialist. Heh: “Viewers Starting To Doubt Objectivity Of Reporter With ‘KAMALA 2020’ Face Tattoo.”
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably In. Appeared on a stage in Ames with Castro and Harris. Also says he’s not cut out to be a senator. Who’s asking you?
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Gov. Jay Inslee says he could decide on presidential run ‘as soon as’ this week.” Wait, I thought he was already in. I mean, he even has a SuperPAC Sometimes it’s hard to see all the way to the back of the clown car…
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Here’s this week’s “Klobucher treats her staff like shit” article, including the “she ate a salad with a comb” bit that got covered everywhere.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. He was “close to making a decision” seven days ago, then nada.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Starting to seem doubtful. Other than a foreign policy chat at the Brookings Institution, it’s radio silence on the Moulton front.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. He’s days away from that “end of the month” decision window. “Beto Tries to Trick Hispanics Into Thinking He’s One of Them“:

    The Hamlet of West Texas—who recently retired from Congress after somehow managing to lose a Texas Senate race against an opponent with sky-high negatives despite raising more than $70 million from a national donor base, and then went on a “listening tour” across America to find himself—recently acknowledged that he is trying to make up his mind about whether to spend 2020 running for president or taking another stab at the Senate by challenging Republican incumbent John Cornyn.

    My guess is that O’Rourke will ultimately travel whatever road is lined with the most television cameras. Of course, vanity—even to the point of narcissism—is not a disqualifier in a politician. It’s practically a job requirement.

    Snip.

    Take the name, which he switches on and off like a light switch. He was “Robert” at birth, “Beto” in childhood, “Robert” again in boarding school and at Columbia, and “Beto” again when he returned to El Paso to run for office.

    Either this guy has an identity crisis the size of Texas, or he is just crafty enough to try to have his flan and eat it too—becoming Latin, or a white male, whichever is more convenient.

    The urban legend has it that O’Rourke came by his nickname the ol’ fashioned way—by having it bestowed upon him by Latino friends in El Paso, who thought he was pretty decent for a white guy, dubbed him an honorary Mexican, and declared that, from that day forward, he would be known as “Beto.” According to this narrative, O’Rourke became Latino simply by rubbing shoulders with Latinos. It’s like how you get poison oak.

  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? Still thinking about it.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Nothing pays quite like pimping socialism: “Sanders Blows Past Other Candidates, Raised $5.9 Million in First 24 Hours.” “The Bernie backlash has already begun.”
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. The big Swalwell story last week was him tweeting about not having coffee at Trump Tower. Because nothing says “sacrifice” like walking an extra half block…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. Backs “reparations” for black people and American Indians. The jokes pretty much write themselves. (Which didn’t stop The Babylon Bee: “Elizabeth Warren Claims Two Men In Colonial Outfits Assaulted Her With Smallpox-Infested Blankets.”)
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. (She has 2.6 million followers.) “Marianne Williamson Wants to Be Your Healer in Chief.” Believe it or not, the article is actually sappier than the headline implies. Sweet Jesus, the women who buy healing crystals finally have their candidate.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. Finally, a man willing to take on the robot threat.
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for February 18, 2019

    Monday, February 18th, 2019

    Sort of a static week in the Clown Car update, with no one getting In or Out. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke all inch closer to the starting line. Update: Bernie Sanders is In.

    This week’s 538 roundup.

    Some Social Justice Warrior hand-wringing from Politico.

    Enjoy the first “the field is too crowded and the longshots should drop out” piece.

    Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

    Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out. Though 538 is still including her in their roundup…
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Learning toward In. He’s visiting Iowa again.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Hamlet still hasn’t made up his mind. Or has he? “Former Vice President Joe Biden is almost certain to run for president in 2020, a source with direct knowledge told Fox News on Thursday. The source said the timing of an announcement is still up in the air.” Oh thanks, that clears everything up. Unlike polls of actual Democratic voters, Biden doesn’t poll well among democratic strategists.
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning toward In. Pledges to toss in $500 million of his own money for just the primary. Yeah, but can he get anybody outside New York City to vote for him? “Bloomberg: Somewhat Less Loathsome Than Some Alternatives” doesn’t seem like a slogan to set the world on fire…
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Booker hates meat. Show me a man who hates BBQ and I’ll show you a man who will never be President of the United States of America…
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. In a bold departure from the “let’s try being as far left as I possible can” strategy pursued by most of the other candidates, Brown opposes the Medicare for all proposals endorsed by Harris, Warren, Sanders, Booker and Gillibrand. Suddenly a strong contender for the “Not A Complete Lunatic” lane if he gets in and Biden bows out.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. He’s visiting Iowa, too. Hey, who doesn’t want to visit Iowa in February? That’s just a totally normal thing people not running for President do…
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. He’s taking shots at Vice President Mike Pence because why wouldn’t he?
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets the fawning “he could beat Trump” profile in The Hill. Vows to visit all 50 states.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But: “Hillary Refuses To Answer Question On 2020 Run.”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Still thinking of running, even after the Amazon deal blew up in his face. “I have not ruled it out.” He should look on the bright side: His chance of being elected President is exactly the same as it was before the Amazon deal blew up…
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. In New Hampshire.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Axios profile. David Wiegel talks to some of her supporters. She and Booker visited New Hampshire.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York’s Super-Adaptoid.

    Gillibrand’s family wasn’t quite as wealthy and connected as the Kennedys or the Bushes, but that’s a high bar to clear. Her grandmother, Polly Noonan, more or less ran the Democratic Machine in Albany politics for about four decades. When this comes up in profiles, it’s usually presented as a sweet story of a grandmother taking her granddaughter to hand out bumper stickers and stir an early interest in politics. Her father Douglas Rutnik was a well-connected lobbyist, close to Republican governor George Pataki and Senator Alphonse D’Amato.

    Snip.

    Gillibrand describes herself as having “the stereotypical 1970s middle-class experience” and the Washington Post described her upbringing as that of a “middle-class Roman Catholic Albany schoolgirl.” Come on. Most middle-class families don’t have the city’s “mayor for life” coming over to their house most nights. Gillibrand attended one of, if not the most, prestigious private high schools in the state, got into Dartmouth, studied abroad in China and Taiwan, got into UCLA law, and interned for D’Amato and the U.S. Attorney’s office, and, from September to December 1990, the United Nations over in Vienna, Austria. (The U.N. does not pay interns, so Gillibrand’s family could afford to cover the costs of her taking an unpaid internship over in Europe for four months.) The Rutnik family may not have been fabulously wealthy, but they were not “stereotypical middle class.”

  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. California’s new governor Gavin Newsom endorsed her. Ann Althouse notices more Kamala Harris worship from the New York Times. How in the tank are the MSM for Harris? They’re going shopping with her:

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably In. He came out for socialized medicine while speaking in New Hampshire.
  • Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder: Probably? Mother Jones says it sounds like he’s running, with “voting rights” as the theme of his campaign. Slight upgrade from Maybe.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He pulled in all of $243,000 in donations. That gets you, what? Three staffers and a modestly equipped campaign office?
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Visiting Iowa.
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out. But he’s still spewing the same hard left garbage other candidates are, so who knows?
  • Lyndon LaRouche: Out. Mainly due to having died. That, and some states ban convicted felons from appearing on the ballot. But mostly the dead thing. Just posting this to see if you’re paying attention. On the other hand, in 1996 and 2000, LaRouche received more Democratic convention delegates (two and six, respectively) than most of the 2020 Democratic crop of contenders will ever receive…
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Sunday he’s inching closer to making a decision on whether or not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. McAuliffe had previously set a self-imposed deadline of March 31 for announcing his intentions.”
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful. “Jeff Merkley Worries Republicans Could Target His Senate Seat If He Runs for President.” Dude, you’re from freaking Oregon. Sounds like he’s figured out he has no chance in the POTUS race and is looking for an excuse to not run. A downgrade from Maybe.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? He’s still thinking about running.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe A Dallas Observer writer thinks he’s going to run, and he’s traipsing around the Midwest. I heard a rumor that he was going to challenge Cornyn in the the 2020 Senate race, but I just don’t see a man who so obviously loves the media spotlight to bow out of a run as a serious Presidential candidate in order to lose statewide in Texas again. Although, thanks to the LBJ rule, he could actually run for both…
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? Still “seriously considering.”
  • Update: Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. He announced on Vermont Public Radio this morning. He’s reportedly already recorded his announcement video. Like Tim Conway playing the Oldest Man in the World on The Carol Burnett Show, Sanders continues to inch ever closer to the starting line…
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. He’s visting Iowa, which is his home state, a factor which no doubt helps delude him into thinking he can win…
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. She visited Nevada, which is the third primary state after Iowa and New Hampshire. An oldie but a goodie: Elizabeth Warren or Lyndon LaRouche?
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. In New Hampshire. Profiled on Nightline.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook.
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 28, 2019

    Monday, January 28th, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is In, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is All But In, and Bobby Francis O’Rourke is sounding a lot more Hamlet-like than heretofore. And a very, very familiar name is once again making noises about a run…

    According to this Zogby poll, everything is coming up Milhouse Biden. Biden leads field with 27%, well ahead of Sanders (18%), Warren (9%), Bloomberg (8%), with Harris and O’Rourke at 6%. McAuliffe, Gabbard and Castro all poll at 0%, behind even John Delaney at 1%.

    In an Emerson poll of announced candidates, “Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.”

    538 has their weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings. I haven’t looked at it much because that would be cheating.

    Oh, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says he’s considering an independent run for President. That would spice things up nicely, and Democrats are livid the he might split the anti-Trump vote. His net worth is estimated at just under $3 billion, so he could probably self-fund a serious run.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: “I’m thinking about it.” Oh thanks, that’s just super-helpful…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Twitter feed. Here’s an Esquire piece that says Biden should run so he can lose badly for his perfidious gestures towards bipartisanship…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. No announcement, but this week he did some Trump bashing, so of course the media covered it. If he runs it will be on climate change and gun control, which may not be enough intersectional tofu for the SJW faction. He does well in a Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers.
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. This week Vanity Fair critiques Booker’s style. To be fair, there’s a lot there to critique, but I also get the impression that the media want to knock a potential rival for Kamala Harris’ presumed voting block out early.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s boasting about how he could beat Trump in Ohio and New York. Since Hillary beat Trump in New York, the latter is not much of a boast…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Official website. Facebook page. Twitter feed. Announced this week. First openly gay Presidential candidate to garner any media attention. Served in the Naval Reserve in Afghanistan. Here’s 538 doing the how he could win thing, but even they sound dubious: “Among adults who identified as Democrats, 73 percent of respondents supported gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey. Independents were close behind at 70 percent. But the same research found support for gay marriage at 51 percent among black adults, an important part of the Democratic coalition.”
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter feed. He hates the fact that you got a tax cut. Also, NBC does some Hispandering about the “historic” nature of his campaign, without ever mentioning the name “Ted Cruz.”
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Maybe? “Clinton is telling people that she’s not closing the doors to the idea of running in 2020,” Zeleny said on Inside Politics. “I’m told by three people that as recently as this week, she was telling people that, given all this news from the indictments, particularly the Roger Stone indictment, she talked to several people, saying ‘Look, I’m not closing the doors to this.'” Fire up the villager’s torches, boys, Baroness Frankenstein is trying to break out of her crypt! (Hat tip: Red State’s Twitter feed.) Upgrade from “Probably Out.”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. “De Blasio Dead Last Among NYers’ Picks For President, Poll Shows.” To know him is to loath him…
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. “Democratic 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney on Thursday earned the approval of the Nashua Telegraph’s editorial board in New Hampshire.” That and $5…
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. The left-wing hit pieces against Gabbard are coming fast and furious. “Is Tulsi Gabbard the Jill Stein of 2020? The Democratic candidate’s perplexing, Bannonesque foreign policy and passivity toward Assad may make her radioactive. And then there is the homophobia.” Man, she sure has somebody (probably the Harris campaign) worried…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, and he managed to cave in enough to end the teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. “Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a Bizarrely Wretched Public Speaker. Finally a Woman Who Makes Hillary Clinton Look Authentic by Comparison!”
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. Had a kickoff rally in Oakland. She’s stacking her campaign with ex-Hillary Clinton staffers. Because there’s no way that could possibly backfire.

  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. In Iowa.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He wants to run on climate change, but he’s having to deal with a measles outbreak in his state.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Amy Klobuchar.” “One of her most influential mentors is former vice president Walter Mondale.” And if that doesn’t say “Electoral Juggernaut”…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “I will make a decision by March 31.”
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. “Oregon senator postpones decision on presidential bid.”
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Headed back to New Hampshire February 2nd.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Addition: Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Dropped Out. I wasn’t including this guy because I didn’t think he had any chance, and evidently he came to the same conclusion. Listing him here only because he was included in that Emerson poll.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? The machine is in place, but where’s the driver? He’s starting to sound a lot more Hamlet-like. “Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to ‘raise expectations” about a 2020 bid.” Sure doesn’t sound like someone with a fire in the belly to run. Downgrade from Probably In.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Website. Twitter feed. Reports say he is “set to announce he will run for president in 2020.”
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “Can we win? There is a path. It’s not an easy path. It’s a steep mountain to climb and I’m up for it. Right now, I have to talk with my family.” Also says there’s a “chance” he could quarterback the Rams next year.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She wants an unconstitutional wealth tax. In a sign that America’s opioid epidemic has gotten out of hand, George Will calls Warren “Democrat’s Thatcher, if they dare.” Trump Derangement Syndrome is a helluva drug…
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Yet here’s a Rolling Stone interview with him, because I run a full service blog. “In a year when the progressive Democratic platform is coalescing around variations of Medicare-for-All, free college and the Green New Deal, presidential candidate Andrew Yang stands apart — with a bold proposal to provide a ‘Freedom Dividend’ of $1,000 a month to every adult in America.” I look forward to the forthcoming Yang Free Pony Proposal…
  • Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for January 21, 2019

    Monday, January 21st, 2019

    This week in the clown car update: Lots climbing in, one getting out. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and California Senator Kamala Harris are both In and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. JR. is Out. Plus a few more no-hope longshots considering a run.

    Before we get to the individual candidates, here’s a table from that January 14 Marist poll on Democratic contenders:

    Usual poll caveats apply, but Biden has a huge advantage over the rest of the field in both favorability and name recognition. And for all the Betomania among the chattering classes, the majority of possible Democratic voters have never even heard of him. Highest unfavorables are Bernie Sanders (bitter Hillary cadres at work there) and Michael Bloomberg. In fact, Bloomberg is alone in having a net favorability rating of zero.

    538 offers up speculation on how longshot Democrats could potentially build a winning coalition, with pentagonal diagrams that look vaguely like cutaways of a Wankel rotary engine. They’re also doing a similar weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings that I only noticed when I was about 80% through this post.

    Oh, and National Review says all the Democratic candidates suck.

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out, considering a senate run instead.
  • Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Addition: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Considering a run. Bennet told Colorado Public Radio he was seriously considering a run, and just changed his Twitter handle from “BennetForCO” to “MichaelBennet.”
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. His completely-devoid-of-interest Twitter feed. There was talk of Biden announcing on Tuesday, but he also has an event in Grand Prairie, Texas on Thursday. Chris Smith at Vanity Fair says Biden is the sell high candidate. Since this comes from Vanity Fair, my working assumption is that it must be wrong…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he’s not too old to run (the same age as Bernie Sanders). That National Review piece says “He doesn’t mesh with the Democratic party we see every day in the national media, but he’s intelligent, shrewd, and willing to spend more money than Croesus on securing the nomination and defeating Trump. Only a fool would dismiss him.”
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. He picked up the all-important Jimmy Carter endorsement. This is two Democratic Presidential Clown Car updates in a row I’ve mentioned Jimmy Carter. I’m not such which of the seven seals that opens.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting a bunch of early primary states, including Iowa.
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in. Has a Facebook page. This week he got a fawning Washington Post profile.
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out. “After two months of considering it, I have concluded that the best way for me to fight for the America that so many of us believe in is to stay in the U.S. Senate and not run for the presidency in 2020.”
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Campaigning in New Hampshire, he says he would not pardon Trump. Also promises not to punch out Mike Tyson.
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue. Beautiful plumage…
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He’s sure acting like he’s running. “People who criticize de Blasio for being more interested in national politics than the local scene aren’t wrong.” Translation: As Mayor, he sucks!
  • Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. Has raised nearly $5 million. I misspelled his name “Delany” last week and nobody noticed. Want to know his views on Israel? I didn’t think so, but here they are anyway.
  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter feed. Howard Dean says she’s not qualified to be President. And if anyone knows about not being qualified to be President…
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but it’s sort of hard to run for president when you have to deal with a teacher’s strike.
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. Ended 2018 with over $10 million in her campaign bank account.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She announced today, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, as befitting the MSM favorite they hope can re-knit the Obama coalition. The New York Times piece says the date was also meant to evoke Shirley Chisholm, the black Democratic congressman who ran for President in 1972, which suggests that Harris will come in 7th against a nominee who eventually loses 49 states to Trump. Evidently she’s leaning toward Crack Charm City as her headquarters. National Review has “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Kamala Harris,” including her being Willie Brown’s mistress, and her anti-civil liberties stance on things like linking collected DNA evidence to family members and charging the parents of truant kids.
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. No real news, so enjoy the delusional fantasy of two USA Today writers calling for a Hickenlooper-Kaisch national unity ticket. I’m sure the notion was very well-received down at the coffee shop nearest the shuttered offices of The Weekly Standard.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter feed. Here he is yammering about climate change in the Washington Post.
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In, playing “the family wants me to run” card.
  • New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Because we just haven’t had enough of the Clintons…
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. Right now he’s making “Fundraising is hard!” sounds. Most recently seen banging the impeachment drum over that Buzzfeed fake Russian collusion “bombshell.”
  • Addition: Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Because there just weren’t enough longshot congressmen on this list to update before.
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Says he’s hitting the road because he’s “in a funk,” and I’m presuming it’s not the James Brown kind. Between this and the Instagram dentist visit, I’m wondering if O’Rouke is going to be the presidential candidate equivalent of The Woman Who Overshares Her Depression On Facebook Fishing For Sympathy, because that would be both really sad and weirdly hilarious. An Oprah interview looms next month.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. He’s in South Carolina for MLK weekend. I think Bernie likes the attention of running for President too much to stop.
  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Still considering.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter feed. She’s also visiting South Carolina.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.
  • Last week I linked to a prediction market website that had Democratic presidential odds. Last week O’Rourke was on top. This week he’s been eclipsed by Harris. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:

    1. Kamala Harris
    2. Beto O’Rourke
    3. Joe Biden
    4. Bernie Sanders
    5. Elizabeth Warren

    Google Won’t Autocomplete “peter strzok lisa page”

    Sunday, January 13th, 2019

    Here’s another case of Google putting its thumb on the scale, making you go out of your way to find what it thinks you shouldn’t be allowed to find: Google won’t autocomplete the phrase “peter strzok lisa page.”

    Or “lisa page peter strzok“:

    You know, the adulterous FBI lovers whose anti-Trump texts were in the news for months? Google evidently doesn’t think the same autocomplete that extends to just about any other news story that doesn’t cover the FISA scandal should apply to them. I first saw this pointed out by commenter whitney at Ann Althouse’s blog.

    Here some other notable phrases Google won’t autocomplete: “fbi conspiracy

    fisa warrant trump“:

    It’s not just the FBI FISA scandal. Google also doesn’t want you to know other facts about various Democratic operatives. For example, it won’t autocomplete the phrases Willie Brown mistress” or “Kamala Harris mistress:

    Strangely, Google won’t autocomplete just “Beto DUI” itself, but will autocomplete “Beto DUI reddit“:

    Looks like someone was asleep at the censorship switch, there.

    Google evidently exists to let you find any information you want…except when it’s embarrassing to Democrats.

    LinkSwarm for January 11, 2019

    Friday, January 11th, 2019

    Welcome to another Friday LinkSwarm! At least those of you not among the millions dead from the shutdown, assuming you already survived the tax cut and the end of Net Neutrality…

  • If you ignore the MSM-generated drama, 2018 was a great year for America:

    In December, the United States reached a staggering level of oil production, pumping some 11.6 million barrels per day. For the first time since 1973, America is now the world’s largest oil producer

    Since Trump took office, the United States has increased its oil production by nearly 3 million barrels per day, largely as the result of fewer regulations, more federal leasing, and the continuing brilliance of American frackers and horizontal drillers.

    It appears that there is still far more oil beneath U.S. soil than has ever been taken out. American production could even soar higher in the months ahead.

    In addition, the United States remains the largest producer of natural gas and the second-greatest producer of coal. The scary old energy-related phraseology of the last half-century—”energy crisis,” “peak oil,” “oil embargo”—no longer exists.

    Near-total energy self-sufficiency means the United States is no longer strategically leveraged by the Middle East, forced to pay exorbitant political prices to guarantee access to imported oil, or threatened by gasoline prices of $4 to $5 a gallon.

    The American economy grew by 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, and by 3.4 percent in the third quarter. American GDP is nearly $1.7 trillion larger than in January 2017, and nearly $8 trillion larger than the GDP of China. For all the talk of the Chinese juggernaut, three Chinese workers produce about 60 percent of the goods and services produced by one American worker.

    In 2018, unemployment fell to a near-record peacetime low of 3.7 percent. That’s the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since 1969. Black unemployment hit an all-time low in 2018. For the first time in memory, employers are seeking out entry-level workers rather than vice versa.

    The poverty rate is also near a historic low, and household income increased. There are about 8 million fewer Americans living below the poverty line than there were eight years ago. Since January 2017, more than 3 million Americans have gone off so-called food stamps.

    Abroad, lots of bad things that were supposed to happen simply did not.

    After withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, the United States exceeded the annual percentage of carbon reductions of most countries that are part of the agreement.

    North Korea and the United States did not go to war. Instead, North Korea has stopped its provocative nuclear testing and its launching of ballistic missiles over the territory of its neighbors.

    Despite all the Trump bluster, NATO and NAFTA did not quite implode. Rather, allies and partners agreed to renegotiate past commitments and agreements on terms more favorable to the U.S.

    The United States—and increasingly most of the world—is at last addressing the systematic commercial cheating, technological appropriation, overt espionage, intellectual-property theft, cyber intrusions, and mercantilism of the Chinese government.

    Read the whole thing. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

  • President Donald Trump visits the Texas border.
  • “The longer Donald Trump wrangles with his two superannuated cartoon antagonists, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, the stronger the president’s position becomes.” (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
  • “If the Dems Want to Lose the Wall Fight, All They Have to Do Is Keep Talking.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Secretary of State Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notes that Obama’s Cairo speech was full of shit.
  • Nobel Peace Prize secretary admits that giving the award to Obama was a mistake. In other news, Peter Dinklage will not be the starting center for the New York Knicks. (Hat tip: Borepatch.)
  • “There is one thing that Palestine obsessives never seem obsessed with: the opinions of Palestinians. There’s no mystery here—asking what Palestinians believe exposes a fundamental problem with the liberal approach to the peace process, which is based on the belief that Palestinians are willing to live peacefully beside Israel.”
  • Flashback: How a Boris Yeltsin trip to a Randall’s in Clear Lake helped end the cold war.
  • The very first bill pushed by House Democrats takes aim at the First Amendment:

    House Democrats are up and running, and their first bill is instructive. Couched as an anti-corruption and good-government measure, it is really an attempt to silence or obstruct political opponents.

    A central part of H.R. 1 is “campaign-finance reform,” no surprise given the progressive fixation with money in politics, which oddly turns to mist when Tom Steyer or Mike Bloomberg are spending. The House bill requires some advocacy groups to publicly disclose the names of donors who give more than $10,000, even if the groups aren’t running ads that endorse candidates but merely inform voters about the issues.

    The goal is to identify donors who don’t genuflect to progressive views, then bully or harass them to stop giving. Recall how the Mozilla CEO was driven out after he donated to California’s referendum opposing same-sex marriage.

    (Hat tip: MQ Sullivan on Twitter.)

  • “WaPo’s embarrassing indulgence in hyperbole describing the attendance at Democratic candidates rallies.” Remember: Trump filling arenas is nothing, but when 200 Democrats turn out, it’s “filled to the rafters.”
  • Second dead black man found in the home of prominent gay California Democratic donor Ed Buck. I guest the first was just a “gimme” under California law.
  • “Hey officer, I have a dead body in my apartment, along with a bunch of illegal drugs.” “It’s cool. No worries.”

  • Tam suggests that people do not need to clean their gun as frequently as the old military guys suggest.
  • Laws are for the little people: “He’s been a staunch supporter of gun control measures for decades, but in a surprising twist, federal prosecutors revealed Thursday that nearly two dozen firearms were discovered in Ald. Ed Burke’s offices during their raids in November.” (Hat tip: Snowflakes in Hell.)
  • Woe unto those who own a house inadvertently mapped as a default location for unmapped IP addresses.
  • Being anti-communist is now evidently a hate crime in Seattle. (Hat tip: Gail Heriot at Instapundit.)
  • Twenty-one bodies found in north Mexico after gang clash near Texas border.
  • Media Matters head and Hillary Clinton crony David Brock says that Bernie supporters must be silenced in 2020.
  • Brazil:

    Jair Bolsonaro is “far right” and the media means that as a pejorative.

    Turns out he favors the private sector and wants to get rid of government owned industry.

    He favors expansive gun rights as a way to combat crime and let people protect themselves. This has led to massive media backlash in the United States.

    He favors conservative social policy including a rollback of the LGBT agenda in Brazil. Again, this has led to massive media backlash in the United States.

    Most damning in the eyes of many in western media, he favors abandoning restrictions on private property that could threaten Amazonian forest growth, i.e. he’s bad for climate change.

    The media has focused a lot on Bolsonaro talking favorably about Brazil’s American backed military dictatorship that ruthlessly exterminated communists and other dissident groups from the 1960’s into the early 1980’s. They suggest Bolsonaro might bring it back.

    So far, the only thing Bolsonaro seems to be doing is keeping his campaign promises to fight corruption, roll back progressive social policies his socialist predecessor supported, and expand gun rights. But the American commentariat can do nothing but see everything through the lens of Trump and if you hate Trump, you must hate Bolsonaro apparently.

  • Cahnman says cut Will Hurd some slack on some meaningless political posturing. I tend to agree, especially since here he might actually be voting the way his constituents favor.
  • Dan Crenshaw seems to be settling into his new job nicely:

  • Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke Instagrams his trip to the dentist. Because that’s what voters really want to see.
  • Related snark:

  • Open office plans suck. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • “I’m attacking the Death Star…and I’m not wearing any pants!” (Link corrected.)
  • Daily Kos: Man, We Sure Love Us Some Old White Heterosexual Millionaires!

    Wednesday, January 9th, 2019

    Lefty site DailyKos has released their first Presidential straw poll of 2019. Results?


    ELIZABETH WARREN 22%
    BETO O’ROURKE 15
    KAMALA HARRIS 14
    JOE BIDEN 14
    BERNIE SANDERS 11
    UNSURE 9
    OTHER 9
    CORY BOOKER 3
    JULIAN CASTRO 1
    KRISTEN GILLIBRAND 1

    So: Of their top five choices, all are straight, four are white millionaires, three are men, three will be over the age of 71 on January 20, 2021, two will be 78 or older, and none are Hispanic.

    The outliers are Kamala Harris, 55, with a net worth of $3,310,537 (a neat trick for someone who has been continuously in government positions since 1990), and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, 46, with an estimated worth of only $9 million. (Forbes wants us to know that his father-in-law, William Sanders, is probably only worth a mere $500 million. Also, as far as I can tell, William Sanders is not related to Bernie Sanders.)

    The low ranking of Bernie Sanders may be a surprise to those who don’t follow every twist and turn of leftwing politics, but Kos deliberately drove out the Bernie Brigades in 2016 for the high crime of complaining about Hillary rigging the primary.

    So too is the high standing of Warren, whose “Hey, I’m just a common person drinking beer” Instagram video drew such ridicule, surprising.

    For all that Democrats swear up and down they’re the party of “people of color,” and the heavy influence of SJW “intersectionality” on the party’s rhetoric, four out of their top five Presidential candidates sure don’t show it.

    Maybe the real driver of the Democratic Party isn’t intersectionality, but middle-aged feminists looking for the next Hillary. (And maybe the young feminists find O’Rourke “dreamy.”)

    Or maybe I just don’t know enough about Daily Kos biases relative to the rest of the left in 2019. 2016 showed that lots of accepted wisdom about who shows up to vote for who in presidential election primaries was wrong.

    Or maybe straw polls this far out are simply meaningless. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson were mopping up straw poll victories back in 2015…