President Donald Trump officially launched his 2020 reelection campaign at a packed rally in Orlando yesterday. It was a long rally, with some YouTube videos of the event running 3-5 hours long. As I strongly suspect that no one is going to watch something that long all the way through, here’s the reelection announcement portion itself.
The Trump campaign raised just under $25 million yesterday. That’s more than Sanders and Harris together raised in all of Q1 (Biden didn’t officially jump in until April), and it will be interesting to see how Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris do in Q2 fundraising. I fully expect Trump to come in on the higher range of $50-$100 million for Q2.
Predicting President Trump to make short work of his Republican primary opponents (which is, who, only Bill Weld at this point?) is like predicting that Alabama will have a better football team than UTEP this year: it’s not really a prediction if no one will take the other side of the bet…
Here’s an interesting interview with Gen. Robert Spalding, chief China analyst for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who analyzes the pressures the trade war puts on China, and how they respond to Trump’s challenge.
“When you look at the full scope of everything China does, it mixes in its own brand of expansive influence into its economics.”
Also a bit on Huawei and 5G, and how China intends to use technological leadership to extend its own censorship regime.
Here’s the entirety of President Donald Trump’s remarks on the 75th anniversary of D-Day:
To the men who sit behind me, and to the boys who rest in the field before me, your example will never, ever grow old. Your legend will never tire. Your spirit—brave, unyielding, and true—will never die. The blood that they spilled, the tears that they shed, the lives that they gave, the sacrifice that they made, did not just win a battle. It did not just win a war. Those who fought here won a future for our nation. They won the survival of our civilization. And they showed us the way to love, cherish, and defend our way of life for many centuries to come. Today, as we stand together upon this sacred Earth, we pledge that our nations will forever be strong and united.
Here’s professor Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist and Professor of Ethical Leadership at New York University, as well as co-author of The Coddling of the American Mind, on Joe Rogan talking about the various strands that came together to metastasize social justice warriors across college campuses. He mentions how their toxic culture reinforces itself like other toxic cultures, including headhunter tribes.
It’s part of a longer interview with Haidt, which starts off talking about the grievance studies hoax.
Bret Weinstein was the evolutionary psychology professor at the center of the Evergreen College SJW freakout. Here he and Joe Rogan discuss the differences between cults and religions, psychedelic experiences as a gateway to God, and various other religious topics. It’s an interesting, mostly respectful discussion of the subject about halfway between an interesting college bull session and an actual insightful discussion of the topics simplified down to a layman level. I think Weinstein gets the more interesting side of the discussion, especially about the role of religion in organizing peiople’s lives.
A couple of points:
I don’t use any drugs stronger than caffeine, but there are obviously some people who can dabble in psychedelics without any obvious lasting harm (or at least LSD; I don’t think enough studies have been done on DMT to determine one way or another), while other users, especially heavier users, can end up permanently damaged. In either case, I oppose federal drug prohibition on Tenth Amendment grounds.
I think it’s true that good people in false religions can still end up helping the people they minister to. (See, for a fictional example, Patera Silk in Gene Wolfe’s Book of the Long Sun, who works in a religion dedicated to (with one important exception) false gods, but doing great things for his flock in the process.
It’s interesting that Biden is going all in on referencing Charlottesville, presumably to make a play for the Social Justice Warrior vote, which is going to be difficult with Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, etc. in the race. Also, how does Biden expect the “good people on both sides” lie to have any legs when it’s been so thoroughly debunked? Or is it merely virtue signaling to the hard SJW left that “No, this old white guy is totally OK to vote for?” Plus it was almost two years ago, which is an eon in Internet time. I’ve never doubted Biden’s ability to pander, I just wonder why he’d think this would be an effective pander.
Otherwise his announcement video is full of anodyne, uplifting pablum.
It will be interesting to see what sort of fundraising haul Biden’s announcement triggers. My guess is that he’s going to out-raise Bernie Sanders 2-1 in Q2, and a $50 million haul isn’t out of the question, as a lot of big money Democratic backers have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for Biden to enter the race.
Some reaction tweets:
Sad! @JoeBiden commences his presidential run with a scurrilous, totally disproven lie. Pres Trump did NOT call neo-Nazis or other racists “fine people.” In fact, he explicitly condemned them, here’s the proof & transcript:https://t.co/LNFIrCVu6phttps://t.co/hxmJd7LoRN
Two minutes into his official candidacy for president, human gaffe machine #Biden praised a slave owner, endorsed Antifa, and spread the most damaging race hoax in American history. #Biden2020
Creepy Sleepy Uncle Joe Biden lied in his first campaign video. he lied about Charlottesville in the same way the media has brainwashed people to believe President Donald trump said what he did not say. This is what he said. pic.twitter.com/CaSRdZvIvy
Joe Biden citing President Trump comments on Charlottesville why he's entering presidential race: "I knew the threat to this nation was unlike any I had seen in my lifetime." Other "threats" in Biden's lifetime WWII Korean War Vietnam War Iraq War Flu Pandemic 1968 Aids Pandemic
On foreign policy, Biden was: for the “Nuclear Freeze” (a truly terrible idea favored by the left in the 80’s)” against the first Iraq war, for the second Iraq war, and advice against the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. (“Mr. President, my suggestion is: don’t go”).
In the Before Time, the Long Long Ago (which, in this case, is October of 2016), Alan Dershowitz was almost universally hailed as a leading legal mind. A Harvard professor and staunch advocate of due process and constitutional rights, Dershowitz was a frequent guest on CNN. That is, until they replaced him with creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti as their go-to legal guy.
“CNN, which used to have me on all the time, on Anderson Cooper, on Cuomo, on Lemon, as an analyst, as a centrist analyst, they decided no, no, it is okay to have extreme Trump supporters, because people just use them as a stick figure exhibits,” Dershowitz said. “What they didn’t want was a centrist liberal that went against their narrative.”
It’s obvious that CNN didn’t want actual sober legal analysis of constitutional rights and designated presidential powers harshing their Trump Derangement Syndrome buzz. Which is why they chose a guy now under multiple felony indictments over a respected legal scholar who was telling them the truth rather than what they wanted to hear.
No wonder Dershowitz gives the media a failing grade for their Mueller Report coverage. “I think we’re seeing an elimination of the distinction between the editorial page and the news page in some of the leading media in the country. It’s a shame. Walter Cronkite could not get a job in the media today.”
It’s fascinating to watch Democrats step up to the plate and tell the exact same lie, one after another, in order to construct a false reality right before our very eyes. Omar said something stupid and President Trump merely called her out for it. There was absolutely no call to violence in the video, much less anything remotely resembling “white supremacy.” So why the uniform Democratic attempt to pretend otherwise, beyond their usual “Our violence is speech, your speech is violence” lie?
For one thing, social justice warrior “intersectionality” forbids white men from criticizing a black Muslim female Democratic representative. Why, that’s like an untouchable criticizing a Brahmin! Doesn’t Trump know his place?
But there’s a second, bigger reason at work: Because Omar’s stupid statement was about 9/11, President Trump’s response video included footage of the original attack, thus violating the Democratic media complex’s taboo on showing videos of 9/11. They know just how damaging those videos are to their vapid “Islam is a religion of peace” talking points, necessitated by both immigration (more Muslims equal more Democratic voters) and foreign policy (“Palestinians, good! Israel, bad!”). They know how powerful and damaging those images are to the Democratic brand, which is why they call footage of a hugely important historical event that happened 18 years ago “triggering.”
And in one very important sense they’re right. Those images are triggering: They trigger Americans to vote against Democrats.
That’s why they’re pushing back against President Trump so hard and calling such video “an incitement to violence,” because they’re desperate to reimpose that taboo.
Tim Ryan and Eric Swalwell are In, Biden’s still Hamleting, Bloomberg is suddenly back in the picture, and a certain anti-Trump celebrity is making noises about running.
Fundraising
More fundraising numbers are trickling out: “Final fundraising tallies from January through March won’t come out until April 15 when candidates officially file their numbers with the FEC. That didn’t stop several triumphant Democratic contenders from releasing their estimated fundraising tallies early.”
From Open Secrets and elsewhere:
Bernie Sanders: $18.2 million from 525,000 donors
Kamala Harris: $12 million from 138,000 donors
Beto O’Rourke: $9.4 million from 218,000 contributions (number of donors not specified)
Pete Buttigieg: $7 million from 158,550 donors
Cory Booker: $5 million (number of donors not specified)
Andrew Yang: $1.7 million from 80,000 donors
This comment had some of the usual types in a tizzy:
The $12 million for Harris makes Buttigieg's $7 million look that much better
But he’s right. Harris has all sorts of structural advantages (sitting senator from an extremely wealthy state and a media darling), but she’s barely outpacing a guy who was considered an unlikely longshot a month ago.
Polls
Morning Consult has it Biden 33, Sanders 25, O’Rourke and Harris tied at 8, and Warren at 7.
Addition: Actor Alec Baldwin: Maybe? I wouldn’t necessarily put much stock into it, but the actor and SNL Trump-impersonator asked his Twitter followers if they would vote for him if he ran for President. Two weeks ago I said that the race could be ripe for a disruptive outsider celebrity candidate, and despite his career decline, Baldwin fits that description. And having noted rageholic Baldwin run would certainly shake things up. Though his Twitter account (which he’s blocked me on) seems to have been mostly moribund the last year. And his opponents already have a anti-Baldwin meme song ready to go:
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Maybe? Bennet announced he has prostate cancer…but is still interested in running for President after surgery. Sounds like the sort of event that causes people to decide not to run for President…
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Says he raised more than $5 million in Q1. The National Catholic Reporter wonders why he’s not doing better. “Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey should be one of the leading candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. He checks so many different boxes that other candidates leave unchecked, it is hard to see why he has not catapulted to the top of the polls, but he hasn’t.”
I see a common thread between the current moment of Buttigieg-mania, and 2018’s Beto-mania. A once-obscure political figure suddenly is the subject of one glossy profile after another, with the general gist of “You’ve never heard of this officeholder, but he’s (or less often, she’s) amazing, and about to shake up politics.” You hear about how the figure is wowing people on the stump, some quote from some audience members selected to represent the “average voter,” declaring that the figure “restores my hope” and “really cares about people like me,” followed by a recitation of their legislative or governing accomplishments. The profile hits all the familiar notes: the humble beginnings, the mischievous hijinks of youth, the happy home life, the vague but positive vision for America’s future. (It’s like this Beto profile, but less exaggerated.)
And maybe in the back of your mind, you’re thinking . . . wait, if this guy is so terrific, why have I never heard of him until now? I follow the news. I’m reasonably well-informed. If he was the driving force behind such big and consequential accomplishments, why have I not noticed them or heard other people talking about them? The accounts of the audiences left in rapturous awe ought to raise some red flags for us, too. Sure, the figure seems charismatic and likable enough, but the allegedly ordinary voters who show up to the rallies are already predisposed to like him — otherwise, they wouldn’t show up to the rally!
Almost everybody’s resume looks good — it represents putting your best foot forward. Very few figures who run for office begin by announcing, “I’ve made a lot of mistakes in my life, had a lot of proposals that never worked out, I’ve had my share of ethical lapses, and I have no idea how I would hold up under the pressure of the presidency.”
Sure, there are under-covered, little-noticed mayors, House members, and even governors and senators who are accomplishing things under the radar of the national media. But when it comes to Democrats, there are some painfully familiar templates: the “here’s the Democrat who’s leading his party to a comeback in the South” and the variation, “Texas Democrats are ready for a comeback.” And when it comes to presidential politics, maybe the easiest way to pick out the candidate who will get the early buzz is to ask which one reminds the national press corps the most of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama — young, charismatic, handsome, talking about better days ahead and unleashing all of America’s untapped potential. We can argue about whether it’s still accurate, but for a long time, the line “Republicans fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love” was a reasonable assessment of each party’s presidential-primary process.
Buttigieg is that guy right now. But history has examples of young Democrats who ultimately stumbled for one reason or another — John Edwards, Howard Dean, Jerry Brown, Gary Hart, the 1988 edition of Al Gore.
His first two recent trips to Iowa have been, in a word, fiascoes (his first, last December, was marked by NYPD protests, and during the second, in February, he was stranded in a blizzard at a Super 8 motel and dined on a gas-station burrito). He hasn’t been listed in most 2020 polls, and his peak performance in any has been a booming one percent.
It’s hard to discern any path to the White House for Hizzoner.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. “Amy Klobuchar’s Hazy ‘Heartland Economics’“: “Amy Klobuchar is counting on “heartland economics” to win Iowa and make her the candidate of the Midwest—though she’s still working through what precisely she means by that, and how it would actually lead her to the Democratic presidential nomination.” She also released 12 years of tax returns.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? “Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Monday that he’s “very close” to a decision on whether he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2020.” Also says he’ll have the funniest campaign if he runs, which is pretty tough talk given how hilarious both Baldwin’s and de Blasio’s campaigns would be.
Oregon senator Jeff Merkley: Out. Filing for reelection to the senate instead.
Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: In. Twitter. Facebook. He’s not even going to get to New Hampshire until May. So far I’m not seeing any Messamentum. But he did put a viral ad with his daughters, and they seem really, really…normal:
Thank you to my twin daughters Kayla and Kyla for their love and support and for always bringing joy to our family. I love you both! pic.twitter.com/SXMAfoHzKH
Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns in Oskaloosa, IA: "If you open the borders, there's a lot of poverty in this world, and you're going to have people from all over the world. And I don't think that's something that we can do at this point. Can't do it." pic.twitter.com/INF9GopzIe
Update: California Representative Eric Swalwell: In. He announced he’s running on gun control on Colbert. Never mind my well-known opposition to gun control, as an observer I just don’t see that moving the needle in such a crowded field. Just about all of them are gun grabbers.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: In. Twitter. Facebook. He raised $1.7 million, so obviously someone cares, even if it’s conservatives trying to jam the Democrats. He got an ABC News profile and was interviewed by Ben Shapiro: