Statistics show that, one year into Donald Trump’s second term, the economic lassitude of the Biden Recession is still weighing down the American economy, as it isn’t creating jobs.
While we will not be getting the payrolls report this week (due to a very brief govt shutdown), ADP’s Employment report paints a poor picture for hiring (even if jobless claims paints a healthy picture for ‘not firing’) adding just 22k jobs (well below the 45k expected).
22 thousand jobs isn’t even a dead cat bounce, it’s a rounding error. And the low jobless claims are just because most of the workers fired/laid off during the Biden Recession have run out of eligibility.
Goods producing firms added just 1k jobs (Construction +9k, Manufacturing -8k – which has lost jobs every month since March 2024) while Services firms saw only 21k jobs added (with health care a standout, adding 74k job, while Professional Services lost 57k jobs).
“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
Interestingly, small firms saw job additions while large firms saw job losses…
We’re not seeing the massive manufacturing job losses critics of President Trump’s tariffs predicted, but we’re also not yet seeing any gains from the lowering of foreign tariffs.
Job seekers are discouraged by a plague of ghost job listings intended to provide the illusion of growth, with no intention of anyone ever being hired.
Inflation is low, yet consumer confidence is at the lowest level in more than a decade. Stocks are booming, yet no one seems to be hiring. (This seems to be my personal experience as well.) Trump and congressional Republicans have managed to lower taxes, yet the “animal spirits” of the American economy do not seem like they’re been unleashed.
Is AI eliminating jobs? Maybe, especially in the service sector (those AI agents everyone hates have probably replaced some humans on support lines). But tech has been a job growth driver for much of this century, and an AI infrastructure build-out seems to be sucking up all available venture capital (and then some) with very little to show for it in the way of actual profits thus far.
Maybe job creation will only resume after California’s billionaires have finished fleeing to avoid the proposed wealth tax.
Would aggressive rate cutting by the Fed help? Probably, but outgoing Fed chair Jerome Powell seems to be pursuing rate cuts with all the vigor of Æthelred the Unready.
The American economy seems becalmed in Hell, and no one seems to know why.