Iowahawk has outdone himself this time.
`My name is Weinermandius, Dong of Dongs:
Look on my junk, ye mighty, and despair!’
Percy Bysshe Shelley, Now With Added Dick Jokes
June 7th, 2011Anthony Weiner’s Seat Could Be a 2012 Pickup Target for Republicans
June 7th, 2011So now that Anthony Weiner has fessed up to twitting his Little Tony to multiple women, what’s next? He claims he won’t resign, despite Nancy Pelosi asking for a House ethics committee investigation. A poll on whether Weiner should resign was evenly split, though interestingly, more men than women said he should resign: “42 percent of women agreed that Weiner should pull out.” This poll was of all NYC rather than just the 9th Congressional District.
I remember thinking that the scandal would have very little impact on 2012 elections, since Weiner’s 9th district is in New York City, and thus a deep blue liberal stronghold Republicans have no chance of picking up.
But now that I’ve looked into it more closely, the answer is: Not so much. Despite Weiner being one of the most liberal Democrats in congress, New York’s 9th Congressional District is probably the least liberal congressional district in New York City. Indeed, the district seems to be drawn to get white voters out of other NYC majority minority districts. Obama only beat McCain there 55% to 44%, much worse than Gore’s 67%-30% drubbing of Bush there in 2000, and Weiner only pulled in 60.8% of the vote against an underfunded Republican opponent in 2010,about which Hotline on Call notes: “For Weiner, that was a limp performance.”
Whether Weiner resigns or not, New York’s Ninth congressional district will still be a tough target for Republicans, but not an impossible one. It just went from “Solid Democrat” to merely a “Strong Lean.”
Michael Williams to Drop Out of Senate Race to Run for Newly Created 33rd Congressional District
June 7th, 2011So the Texas Tribune is reporting, backed up by an email from the Williams for Congress campaign, and confirming the piece they published last week.
Wealthy Entrepreneurs Leaving China?
June 7th, 2011According to this Forbes piece, yes. This seems to be partially a reaction to the government pouring more money into the public sector.
What does that mean? Hell if I know. But it makes sense. After all, if you could get out of China, wouldn’t you?
But between this and China’s housing bubble, it goes a long way to show that China’s “economic miracle” is a lot more fragile than the likes of Thomas Friedman would have you believe…
Update on the Coming Euro Collapse (and Our Own)
June 6th, 2011Andrew Lilico in the Telegraph (via McArdle, via Insta) has a sobering look at what will happen when Greece defaults (“It is when, not if”). It starts out:
Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent. The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece. The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
And then gets even less pleasant, including martial law and the European Central Bank going insolvent. The real European crisis hasn’t happened yet, and when it does, it will probably be much worse than the current U.S. recession.
Meanwhile, Greeks continue to protest long-overdue austerity measures. I am doubtful Greece is willing to actually implement real austerity. After all, the Greek government only recently decided that it might want to stop paying pensions to the dead. instead of solving the problem of an out-of-control welfare state, the ECB and the IMF have decided to let Greek slip even further into debt in exchange for implementing reforms and austerity they’ve shown no signs at all of being willing to implement; in other words, to kick the can down the road and hope that gives the other PIGS time to get their respective houses in order before the Euro collapses.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s crisis is so severe that not only are they going to start taxing private pension funds, they’re actually going to start fining trustees that don’t hand over pensioner’s money. “Threatening scheme trustees with huge fines that are not covered by trustee indemnity insurance if they refuse to or cannot collect the levy, is a guaranteed way to stop anyone coming forward to be a trustee. I expect the other consequence of the Finance Bill (no 2) 2011 will be the resignation, post-haste of hundreds of scheme trustees.”
The chances that various transnational and euro bureaucrats will succeed in rescuing all the PIGS (and thus the Euro) is slim to none: “The ‘troika’ [ECB, IMF, EU] is doubling down on its losing bet in Greece and is playing with the dice loaded against them.”
How bad is it going to get?
Austerity is going to mean hellishly bad deflation, high and rising employment, and depression in the indebted countries.
There is $600 trillion in derivatives now loose in the world. Who knows which banks have written them and to whom? Who are the counterparties? We did not fix this with the last political fix. The next crisis has the potential to be just as bad or worse than 2008, which is why I think Europe’s leaders are so dead set on avoiding a day of reckoning. If you look under the hood, as they most assuredly have, it must be frightening. And with pushback from voters?
Contagion, thy name is Europe. And with the US economy slowing down, it might not take much to push us over the edge
And that’s the best case scenario, the one where the PIGS actually bite the bullet and implement austerity. It’s entirely possible that one or more of them will reject austerity measures and, in doing so, set off a run on the Euro.
Also via Insta comes news that China has divested itself of 97% of its holdings in Treasury Bills. As Mark Steyn has pointed out, where Greece is now is where Obama wants to take us, with ObamaCare as just the down-payment on a full-blown European welfare state. We’re not nearly as far along as Greece is to financial collapse, but our debt is already starting to look like a bad bet.
Certainly we’re not so far along that we can’t turn back, but the Paul Ryan Roadmap is probably the minimum we need to be doing to get our debt under control. Less than that and we’re asking for serious trouble. It’s already looking like Carter era stagflation is here.
As the recent Texas legislative session showed, it is in fact possible to actually shrink the size of government, not just slow the rate of increase. Or at least it’s possible when you have Republican Supermajorities in the House, Senate, and Executive branch. By contrast, the Obama administration and Harry Reid’s Senate have shown no sign of being willing to address the problem, or even to admit it exists. They too want to kick the can down the road and keep piling blocks of debt onto the backs of your children. But, as the Euro crises shows, such actions have a way of catching up with you sooner rather than later.
You can only kick the can down the road so far before you run out of road.
Texas Senate Race Updates for June 2, 2011: Michael Williams to Drop Out?
June 2nd, 2011Some updates in the Texas Senate Race, including one big shakeup if it pans out:
LinkSwarm for June 2, 2011
June 2nd, 2011Taking some time to get back into the post-Memorial Day swing, so here are a few links of interest:
We are all agreed that someone had an interest in sending a picture of Rep. Weiner’s erection to a coed. Even Rep. Weiner agrees on this much—he’s basically told us yeah, that’s my junk. And he’s proud of that. Would I sound very boring if I were to suggest that the person with the means, opportunity, and motive to send Rep. Weiner’s dicpic to the coed was none other than Rep. Weiner himself?
Memorial Day LinkSwarm for May 30, 2011
May 30th, 2011Here are a few links for Memorial Day, some specific to the occasion:
America’s victory in Iraq broke the back of Al-Qaeda and left Osama bin Laden’s dream in ruins. He died a defeated fanatic in his Abbotabad hideaway; his dream was crushed in the Mesopotamian flatlands where he swore it would win…The tragedies of Iraq are real and well known. The victory is equally real—but the politically fastidious don’t want to look. The minimum we owe our lost and wounded warriors is to tell the story of what they so gloriously achieved.
Here’s a closeup of the plaque on the bench:
I thought doing a post on the late Cpl. Oligschlaeger might provide a somber but uplifting story for Memorial Day, but in researching him, I found his story was a lot sadder than most. He didn’t die in combat (despite doing two tours in Iraq), but died due to “accidental death due to multiple drug toxicity,” the drugs in question being various prescription drugs he was taking to deal with post-traumatic stress disorder while waiting (over half a year) for a spot to open up in a PTSD treatment center.
Rank and organization: First Sergeant, U.S. Army, Company A, 1st Battalion, 8th Infantry, 4th Infantry Division. place and date: polei Doc, Republic of Vietnam, 22 March 1967. Entered service at: Fort Bliss, Tex. Born: 2 June 1931, Lowell, Mass. Citation: 1st Sgt. McNerney distinguished himself when his unit was attacked by a North Vietnamese battalion near polei Doc. Running through the hail of enemy fire to the area of heaviest contact, he was assisting in the development of a defensive perimeter when he encountered several enemy at close range. He killed the enemy but was painfully injured when blown from his feet by a grenade. In spite of this injury, he assaulted and destroyed an enemy machinegun position that had pinned down 5 of his comrades beyond the defensive line. Upon learning his commander and artillery forward observer had been killed, he assumed command of the company. He adjusted artillery fire to within 20 meters of the position in a daring measure to repulse ??enemy assaults. When the smoke grenades used to mark the position were gone, he moved into a nearby clearing to designate the location to friendly aircraft. In spite of enemy fire he remained exposed until he was certain the position was spotted and then climbed into a tree and tied the identification panel to its highest branches. Then he moved among his men readjusting their position, encouraging the defenders and checking the wounded. As the hostile assaults slackened, he began clearing a helicopter landing site to evacuate the wounded. When explosives were needed to remove large trees, he crawled outside the relative safety of his perimeter to collect demolition material from abandoned rucksacks. Moving through a fusillade of fire he returned with the explosives that were vital to the clearing of the landing zone. Disregarding the pain of his injury and refusing medical evacuation 1st Sgt. McNerney remained with his unit until the next day when the new commander arrived. First Sgt. McNerney’s outstanding heroism and leadership were inspirational to his comrades. His actions were in keeping with the highest traditions of the U.S. Army and reflect great credit upon himself and the Armed Forces of his country.
Texas Ex-Governor Bill Clements Dead At 94
May 30th, 2011First Republican governor in Texas since reconstruction. He was, along with John Tower and Phil Gramm, a key figure in changing Texas from a Democratic dominated state to a Republican state.
Not seeing this news story played nearly as large as it should be (for example, as of this writing it’s not up on the front page of Google News). I guess a lot of people are on vacation…
Faster, Pussycat! Pander! Pander!
May 27th, 2011Mitt Romney comes out in favor of ethanol subsidies. “I support the subsidy of ethanol.”
Well, thanks for that. Ideological clarity is always useful: Tim Pawlenty has political courage, Mitt Romney doesn’t. Good to know.
For as long as he’s been mentioned as a serious presidential candidate (say, about 2007), I’ve always harbored a vague dislike of Romney for reasons that were hard to articulate, and which had nothing to do with his Mormonism. Just looking at him made me think he was a smug, dishonest creep, no matter how much the good folks at National Review gushed over him. If you had asked me to explain why I disliked him I would have had to admit that it was an entirely irrational, gut-level reaction. (The vast majority of liberals have the same gut-level, irrational hatred of Sarah Palin, but they just won’t admit it’s irrational.)
But the more I hear from Romney, the more I think that my gut-level reaction was right, that Romney is an empty suit that doesn’t believe in anything except his own awesomeness. If Romney got elected, I bet within a year we’d be getting New York Times editorials praising him for how much he’s “grown” (i.e., abandoned conservative positions).
Romney was never going to be my choice for the GOP nod, but his latest pander has finally dropped him to dead last among the serious contenders in my book, even below New Gingrich, Ron Paul and Herman Cain. At least with Ron Paul, I have some idea of where he stands. Romney has the ideological consistency of store-brand guacamole.