Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Nvidia Surpasses Intel In Market Cap

Tuesday, July 28th, 2020

This is some crazy news:

Nvidia Corp. NVDA, 2.38% surpassed Intel Corp. INTC, -1.38% as the largest U.S. chip maker by market cap for the first time on Wednesday. Nvidia shares closed up 3.5% at $408.64, giving it a market cap of $251.31 billion, while Intel shares finished up 0.5% at $58.61, giving it a market cap of $248.16 billion, according to FactSet data. For the year, Nvidia shares have gained 74% while Intel shares have slipped 2%, compared with a 11% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, 3.14%, a 17% gain in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, 1.64%, and a 1.9% decline in the S&P 500 index SPX, 0.66%. While it is not the first time a U.S. chip maker has surpassed Intel in market cap, it is the first time for Nvidia. Back in 1999 and 2000, Texas Instruments Inc. TXN, 1.89% surpassed Intel in cap a few times, and between late 2012 and mid-2014 Qualcomm Inc. QCOM, 3.80% and Intel often jockeyed for the No. 1 position, according to Dow Jones data.

Nvidia is a fabless semiconductor company that designs graphics processor units (GPUs), the chips that drive computer screens, especially those for gaming systems and consoles. They were also popular for Bitcoin and other crypto-currency mining rigs, though that market seems to have played itself out. They earned just over $3 billion in profit in their fiscal Q1.

Intel, of course, makes CPUs, the central processing units at the heart of pretty much every computer. They’ve had trouble recently as rival AMD has lapped them in a number of markets, Apple is abandoning them as the Mac CPU manufacturer to go with a custom ARM-based system-on-a-chip, and reportedly Intel has had process yield problems with their chips. However all of that hasn’t prevented them from announcing over $5 billion in profits for their last fiscal quarter, though they also announced they’re pushing out their 7mm process node.

Nvidia, like AMD, has its chips fabbed by TSMC. (AMD is also a competitor to Nvidia in the GPU space, having bought GPU maker ATI back in 2006.) Intel has more than a dozen of it’s own own wafer fabrication plants. But there are reports that even Intel has contracted with TSMC to fab some of its chips next year.

As of this writing, Nvidia is trading at a share price of about 78 times earnings. Meanwhile, Intel is trading at about nine times earnings. That’s a crazy divergence.

Owning your own fabs has become a very expensive proposition, but once they’re up and running, the costs are lower and give you full control of the process. So far Nvidia has benefited greatly from having TSMC fab their chips, but it’s rumored that all of TSMC’s cutting edge 5nm fab wafer starts are already spoken for next year (Apple is another customer), and it will take time for more fab capacity to come online. That may start to constrain Nvidia’s growth.

Nvidia is certainly having a better year than Intel, but 80 times earnings is a pretty crazy P/E ratio. Some market correction is probably in order.

Apple Dumps Intel

Wednesday, June 24th, 2020

Apple just announced that its Macintosh PC line will be moving from Intel CPUs to its own chip designs.

Apple today announced it will transition the Mac to its world-class custom silicon to deliver industry-leading performance and powerful new technologies. Developers can now get started updating their apps to take advantage of the advanced capabilities of Apple silicon in the Mac. This transition will also establish a common architecture across all Apple products, making it far easier for developers to write and optimize their apps for the entire ecosystem.

Apple today also introduced macOS Big Sur, the next major release of macOS, which delivers its biggest update in more than a decade and includes technologies that will ensure a smooth and seamless transition to Apple silicon. Developers can easily convert their existing apps to run on Apple silicon, taking advantage of its powerful technologies and performance. And for the first time, developers can make their iOS and iPadOS apps available on the Mac without any modifications.

To help developers get started with Apple silicon, Apple is also launching the Universal App Quick Start Program, which provides access to documentation, forums support, beta versions of macOS Big Sur and Xcode 12, and the limited use of a Developer Transition Kit (DTK), a Mac development system based on Apple’s A12Z Bionic System on a Chip (SoC).

Apple plans to ship the first Mac with Apple silicon by the end of the year and complete the transition in about two years. Apple will continue to support and release new versions of macOS for Intel-based Macs for years to come, and has exciting new Intel-based Macs in development. The transition to Apple silicon represents the biggest leap ever for the Mac.

Well, not really. The leaps from Motorola’s 68000 series to PowerPC chips, its move from legacy Mac OS to the FreeBSD/NeXTSTEP-based OS X, and the transition away from PowerPC to Intel, were all probably bigger leaps. But their transition away from Intel is still pretty big.

The chip they’re moving doing is based on ARM, but that’s only a small part of the story:

The A12Z chip that Apple is currently using in its latest LiDAR iPad Pro and its first generation Apple Silicon chip in the Mac mini developer transition kit does incorporate ARM CPU cores. But that ARM Architecture CPU is not the most significant reason Apple is moving away from Intel’s chips on Macs.

Apple alluded to this in referring to its own custom silicon as being an “SoC,” or System on a Chip. Over the past decade, Apple has developed a series of SoCs that incorporate essentially an entire logic board of chips that a typical PC would require into a single chip that can be mass produced and used across multiple devices from its iPhone, to iPad, to Apple TV and even HomePod.

The primary advantage of this integration was power consumption. ARM supplied licensed CPU reference design cores that provided leading compute performance per watt, leading Apple to make ARM the center core of its SoC designs. ARM cores are also the basis for Apple’s M-series components that monitor data from the accelerometer, gyroscope, and barometer to efficiently track how a device is moving over time.

Snip.

In some respects, Apple’s use of ARM cores in its SoCs is similar to its use of Unix in the OS itself. Both are effectively specifications that standardize the operations of low level technology layers. In the same way that Macs are more than just Unix systems, Apple’s SoCs are more than just ARM processors.

As with Qualcomm’s modems, the customizations, optimizations, and additional layers of proprietary work that Apple adds to its A-series SoCs results in a package that’s significantly more valuable than its base components.

That reality is reflected in Apple’s custom silicon being a lot more than just an “ARM chip,” and helps to explain why Apple’s SoCs have increasingly outperformed other ARM-based SoCs developed by Qualcomm, Nvidia, Samsung, and others.

Who’s going to fab the chips? Almost certainly TSMC, which has been fabbing iPhone chips since 2014, and which has lapped Intel in process technology.

Could Apple build their own fab? With a market cap of over 1.5 trillion and $192.8 billion cash on hand, they’re one of the few companies that could without making it a “bet your company” proposition.

But I don’t think they will.

Keep in mind, TSMC just broke ground on a new 5nm, 300mm Taiwanese fab expected to cost NT$500 billion, which works out to some $16.9 billion. They also plan to build a another 5nm fab in Arizona for $12 billion. That’s a lot of capacity for Apple (one of TSMC’s biggest customers, if not the biggest) to take advantage of. (TSMC has dozens of existing fabs, but not all are equipped for the cutting edge process technology Apple needs.)

Actually, Apple already owns a fab, a former Maxim facility at 3725 N. First St. San Jose, California, which it bought in 2015. Weirdly enough, you can’t find any information about it after 2015. Could they retrofit it to make their new SoCs? The older a fab is, the less likely it is to get retrofitted for new technology, for a variety of reasons. If they weren’t already using it for CPU production, they probably wouldn’t start now. But since they only paid $18.2 million for 70,000 square feet of valuable Silicon Valley real estate, I doubt that concerns them much.

Fabbing their own CPUs has a long-rumored move on Apple’s part, which has been building up its chip design capabilities for over a decade with the acquisitions of fabless design companies like P.A. Semi, Intrinsity, Anobit, Passif Semiconductor and part of Dialog Semiconductor. With its own CPUs, Apple is finally getting the complete end-to-end control of its computing platform its long sought.

According to Apple, “With the translation technology of Rosetta 2, users will be able to run existing Mac apps that have not yet been updated, including those with plug-ins. Virtualization technology allows users to run Linux. Developers can also make their iOS and iPadOS apps available on the Mac without any modifications.” Apple’s previous emulation transitions worked pretty well, but were far from seamless. In theory, well-written Mac software should only require a recompile to work properly on Macs using Apple’s new chips. In practice, such transitions are always bumpy, and it will take a while to tune performance.

Scott Adams Interviewed

Tuesday, June 9th, 2020

Here’s podcaster, tech investor and conservative orthogonal thinker Hotep Jesus (born Bryan Sharpe) interviewing Dilbert creator and persuasion expert Scott Adams on a wide variety of topics.

A wide-ranging discussion of the Wuhan coronavirus, race relations, etc. Food for thought.

21% Growth In Q3?

Wednesday, May 27th, 2020

At least some economists think we’re in for a V-shaped recession. And naturally, Democrats are furious:

In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking, and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.

Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.

“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.

The former cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.

“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.

Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.

Snip.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption, and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industry-wide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”

Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that “the hope is that by July the country’s really rocking again.” White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

“I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, the head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, who he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”

“I have been saying that on TV as well,” said Kevin Hassett, a top Trump economic adviser, who pointed to a Congressional Budget Office analysis predicting a 21.5 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. “If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2.”

As a general rule, it’s best not to punch yourself in the nads, but if you do, it’s far better to get up, shake it off and keep walking than it is to lie weeping on the sidewalk. The American economy was going gangbusters before The Great Wuhan Recession, and if Democratic governor’s don’t try to keep obviously futile lockdowns in place in order to tank the economy, there’s no reason* it can’t start to do better again in the summer and fall.

That, of course, is precisely what Democrats fear.

The former Obama White House official said, “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I don’t think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is the challenge for the Biden campaign. If they can’t figure this out they should all just go home.”

As Byron York noted, Democrats fear nothing so much as economic growth.

*OK, there is one reason: A crushing debt load that neither political party seems willing to address. On the other hand, we’ve been fearing the effects of excessive government debt for quite some time now. The Gods of the Copybook Heading can’t be put off forever, but with Treasury 30 year yields under 1.5%, there’s no sign that our government’s bipartisan spending spree has (yet) dulled the world’s appetite for American debt.

Texas Now Running At 25-50% Freedom

Tuesday, May 19th, 2020

Texas governor Greg Abbott is lifting more Wuhan coronavirus-inspired business restrictions:

Monday saw new information released on Phase 2 of Texas’ recovery plan.

Gov. Greg Abbott announced the new guidelines at a press conference Monday.

Phase 2 includes opening dates and health and safety guidelines and checklists for everything from bars and breweries to day cares, summer camps and even aquariums.

After being effectively shuttered for months, and putting thousands of bartenders and servers out of work, bars in Texas will be allowed to reopen Friday, Abbott said.

Under new guidelines, bars will be allowed to reopen at 25 percent capacity under very strict guidelines, he said. Breweries, wineries and wine tasting rooms are also included under these new guidelines.

Likewise restaurants, which had already been allowed to reopen at 25 percent capacity will be allowed to increase to 50 percent capacity starting Friday.

Abbott also issued minimum standard health protocols that bars must follow to keep patrons safe.

The restrictions are more of the “mother may I” rules that both patrons and establishments will probably start ignoring almost immediately.

Abbott is also lifting restrictions on sports facilities (or at least letting such facilities apply to open without spectators), which is good, since the NBA is also allowing teams back in practice facilities (though with a restriction to four players in a facility at a time, actual team practices aren’t permitted yet).

Thanks to Republican control of all three branches of government, Texas hasn’t suffered under the extreme lockdown insanity that Democratic governors have imposed on places like Michigan and California. But given that Texas has suffered no spike in coronavirus cases, and that Georgia has also suffered no spike in cases despite lifting most of their lockdown order, Gov. Abbott’s reopening moves seem relatively timid. Republican activists are not impressed:

For more than two months, Texas has been ruled by the edicts from Gov. Greg Abbott’s office.

It’s been the governor—and the governor alone—who has decided which businesses can reopen and how many people they can allow inside. The governor’s directives have strayed in the mundane operations of individuals, such as noting how often their employees must wash their hands.

As Empower Texans CEO Michael Quinn Sullivan asked rhetorically last week: “Are we finding we don’t actually need a legislative branch, with all their pesky drama and hand-wringing?”

Such is the case in current-day Texas. This is the status quo in a state where the legislature and the Supreme Court have thus far refrained from reining in the power of what’s essentially become an absolute executive.

As with the previous partial reopening announcements by Abbott, grassroots activists like Julie McCarty of the True Texas Project say Texans should not be satisfied with merely an additional portion of the freedom their leaders have taken from them.

“I get what Abbott is doing, he’s trying to save his own skin by doing just enough to not be fully blamed by either side. That’s appeasement, not leadership, and it accomplishes nothing,” McCarty told Texas Scorecard. “Texans have had enough with these made-up orders that don’t follow common sense. It’s time for Abbott to fish or cut bait; he doesn’t deserve any praise for piecemeal actions that put his lack of leadership skills on full display.”

LinkSwarm for May 15, 2020

Friday, May 15th, 2020

Greetings, and welcome to another Friday LinkSwarm! Today’s theme is Democratic Governor’s ignoring the constitution to keep their precious lockdowns going, Obamagate, spying (domestic and foreign), a bit about aircraft, and funny animals. Dig in!

  • The economy: is the worst over? Let’s hope.
  • Remember how Georgia lifting the lockdown and opening the economy was going to kill everyone’s granny? Yeah, not so much: “Georgia Records Lowest Number of Coronavirus Patients in over a Month.”
  • More medical hope:

    Ever since President Trump expressed optimism about the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, the mere mention of that drug can elicit instantaneous, strident, and finger-wagging condemnation by the mainstream media and all those who are pulling for the pandemic to lay waste to the economy and pave the way for a fundamental progressive transformation of America. Despite its use by health-care providers across the country and around the world to successfully treat COVID-19, you will be mocked as either a fool or a snake oil salesman if you approvingly utter the word “hydroxychloroquine” or even express hope that it can be used to save lives. The word is simply not to be tolerated in polite, progressive society.

    Well, it appears that the list of forbidden words is about to get longer. The new additions include “corticosteroids” and “Methylprednisolone.”

    What do these widely available and relatively inexpensive drugs with known safety profiles have in common with hydroxychloroquine? Leading physicians are using them in addition to hydroxychloroquine to successfully treat COVID-19. And they are doing so without waiting two or three years for the results of randomized clinical trials.

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

  • “Wuhan Virus Watch: Over Half of All U.S. Deaths Have Occurred in Just Five States.” “New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan and Pennsylvania. New York remains the hardest-hit state of any in the country by far, having logged nearly 27,000 deaths as of Saturday afternoon. The next-hardest-hit state, New Jersey, had recorded over 9,100.”
  • Speaking of Michigan:

    It is difficult to describe, and impossible to exaggerate, just how badly Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s COVID-19 response has been, and it has been a catastrophe from the very beginning. In early March, when the country was already becoming concerned about the spread of the virus, Whitmer did not cancel the Democratic presidential primary, and indeed, there was record turnout for the March 10 primary, which turned into a “super spreader” event in metropolitan Detroit. She has since bungled practically every aspect of the pandemic, including her deliberately punitive and irrational lockdown policy. Now she would have us believe that she is the real victim of all this:

    Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said Wednesday that the lockdown protests are “racist and misogynistic” and called on those with a platform to discourage the demonstrators.

    Whitmer told ABC’s “The View” that the protests are “really political” as demonstrators have brought nooses, Confederate flags and Nazi symbolism.

    “This is not appropriate in a global pandemic,” she said. “But it’s certainly not an exercise of democratic principles where we have free speech. This is calls to violence. This is racist and misogynistic.”

    I have no idea who brought nooses, etc., to these protests, although I suspect these were false-flag agents provocateurs — leftists pretending to be part of the protest and acting in ways intended to discredit Whitmer’s opponents. None of this, however, justifies her policies.

  • Just in case you thought there was an end to her awful policies: “Michigan state Rep. Leslie Love (D-Detroit) is blasting Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) policy of returning coronavirus patients to nursing homes, making the Detroit lawmaker the second Democrat to criticize the governor publicly in less than a month.”
  • Speaking of which: “NY officials allowed COVID-positive workers to stay on the job at nursing homes — the facilities account for 25% of deaths in the state.” More of that brilliant one-party Democratic rule…
  • “Media Lies: Democrat Governors Doing Great Jobs Despite Higher Wuhan Death Rates.”
  • Continuing the theme (click to expand image):

  • Wisconsin Governor and bureaucracy: “Screw your rights. Stay at home.” Wisconsin Supreme Court: “Unconstitutional.” Wisconsin Governor and bureaucracy the very same day: “Oh yeah? Then screw your religion! No meetings for you God weirdos!” Every. Knee. Must. Bend.
  • That crap doesn’t fly in Texas:

    Dallas County Commissioner Judge Clay Jenkins has repeatedly tried to act as the ruler of Dallas County by attempting to force his will on everyone within it and each time he’s been put back in his place by everyone from the citizens of Dallas County to his own fellow commissioners.

    Jenkins has now awakened the wrath of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton who issued a warning to him and other officials in other Texas counties who are trying to illegally prevent Texans from living doing things such as attending church.

    According to Paxton’s office, a warning was issued to three county judges and two mayors telling them to back off their make-believe thrones, or else there will be consequences:

    Attorney General Ken Paxton today issued letters to three Texas counties (Dallas, Bexar, and Travis) and two mayors (San Antonio and Austin), warning that some requirements in their local public health orders are unlawful and can confuse law-abiding citizens. These unlawful and unenforceable requirements include strict and unconstitutional demands for houses of worship, unnecessary and onerous restrictions on allowing essential services to operate, such as tracking customers who visit certain restaurants, penalties for not wearing masks, shelter-in-place demands, criminal penalties for violating state or local health orders, and failing to differentiate between recommendations and mandates.

  • The curve Democrats really want to flatten:

  • The government-imposed lockdown needs to end. But lot’s of people have (properly) set their own lockdown standards:

    Many of the most important mitigation strategies are unknown to the general public because they’ve taken place behind closed doors on the initiative of employers, not bureaucrats, and have little or nothing to do with legal mandates (which are themselves, as I can attest is the case here in Canada, a contradictory, hastily-conceived patchwork of federal and provincial directives and advisories). To give but one example I happen to be familiar with: Many of the men and women you see driving delivery trucks and construction vehicles are now governed by all sorts of rules, at pickup and drop-off, that allow them to perform their functions without coming within six feet of others. In some cases, they’ve been enabled with apps on their phones or dash-mounted tablets that permit them to coordinate these functions without any direct on-site human interaction whatsoever. Or they might be subject to thermometer-gun screenings to determine if they have a fever. Having implemented these lockdown-lite policies at great cost and inconvenience, employers aren’t going to dump them the moment the government gives them permission to do so, even though these procedures have increased costs and decreased output.

    Many employers I speak to are actually far more constricted by the concerns of their own employees than by the law itself. At one workplace that I know of, the boss announced that loosened provincial restrictions mean that everyone can come back to work this month. To his surprise, his employees announced that they’d voted on the issue through Facebook, and, no, they would not be coming back, at least not yet. And in Quebec, which is starting to let elementary-school students come back to class this month, thousands of parents—a majority at some schools—have decided to keep their children home. I am told by reliable sources within my own family that some of these parents are even pressuring their neighbours to do likewise, and are shaming dissenters on social media as bad parents. It’s lockdown by mob.

    To some extent, I find this attitude of populist hyper-vigilance to be exasperating, because sending your young kids to school is now generally safe (and, selfishly, because I think my own seven-year-old could benefit from getting back to a structured education environment). But we got into this mess by letting our guard down, and so it’s not surprising that many ordinary people want to err on the other side of the equation for a month or three. Whatever your views, though, if you’re all in a fuss about lockdown policy, please remember that the real lockdown was never imposed by government. It turns out that it was inside each and every one of us all along.

  • Devin Nunes thinks that the entire Trump transition team was under surveillance by the Obama Administration. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Don Surber asked a question back in 2017 that we ought to take a fresh look at: Was Obama using the NSA to spy on Romney during the 2012 election? Given what we know of Crossfire Hurricane, would anyone put it past him?
  • Related:

  • Russia, Russia, Russia!

  • Oh, lovely. Crowdstrike admits that there was no evidence that Russia hacked the DNC server.
  • Lives better for the living:

  • Mexico’s president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would like to know the truth behind Obama’s Fast and Furious illegal gun running program. A lot of us would like to know the same thing…
  • EU and German courts (strangely two different things in this story) are having a pissing match over whose gavel is bigger.
  • Canadian Broadcasting Company can’t decide just how it wants to lie about The Epoch Times and its reporting on the Chinese Communist Party’s culpability in the Wuhan Coronavirus. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
  • TSMC to build chip foundry in Arizona. This is a pretty big deal, as TSMC currently has the best fab tech in the world, and this will be their first ground-up American foundry (they currently have (I think) two other American fabs as the result of acquisitions from WaferTech and TI).
  • Arkansas Professor Arrested For Concealing Communist Chinese Funding.”

    An engineering professor at the University of Arkansas has been arrested by the FBI and faces up to 20 years in prison for allegedly hiding funding that he received from the communist Chinese government.

    The New York Times reports that “Simon Ang of the University of Arkansas, was arrested on Friday and charged on Monday with wire fraud.”

    “He worked for and received funding from Chinese companies and from the Thousand Talents program, which awards grants to scientists to encourage relationships with the Chinese government,” the report notes, adding that “he warned an associate to keep his affiliation with the program quiet.”

    The report explains that Ang’s alleged hiding of the funding enabled him to also get US government subsidies, specifically from NASA, to the tune of more than $5 million.

  • “Chinese Government Lays Off Entire Propaganda Team As American Media Doing Their Job For Them.
  • CNN Replaces President Trump’s Press Briefings With President Xi’s.”
  • Capitalist fungus. (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
  • Billy doesn’t respond well to pressure.”
  • “Why we at $FAMOUS_COMPANY Switched to $HYPED_TECHNOLOGY.”
  • Important safety tip: Don’t stand on an active airport runway. This was Austin, so odds are it was an adler.
  • For Rich:

  • The Los Angeles Rams uniforms are horrible garbage.
  • “Democratic States Deploy Greta Thunberg Drones To Lecture People Who Go Outside.”
  • Water sausage eats breakfast:

  • Goat rodeo:

  • This dog is on my wavelength:

  • Elon Musk Threatens To Move Tesla To Texas

    Sunday, May 10th, 2020

    Elon Musk has finally had enough of California’s business-hostile tax and regulatory environment:

    Recall just days ago we reported that Tesla was sending people back to work at its Fremont factory in Alameda County before the area’s lockdown expired.

    Late last week, Alameda County responded by telling Musk that he could not re-open his factory. “We have not given the green light. We have been working with them looking at some of their safety plans. But no, we have not said that it is appropriate to move forward,” Erica Pan, interim health officer for the Alameda County Public Health Department, said on an online town hall meeting on Friday.

    That was enough to trigger a total Elon Musk meltdown. The CEO, who has been going off on diatribes about civil liberties on conference calls and podcasts alike, Tweeted out on Saturday that he is going to be suing Alameda County for not allowing him to re-open

    The question is what took him so long. Thanks to one party Democratic rule, California constantly ranks as one of the worst states to do business in. High taxes and a brutal regulatory environment made California prohibitively expense to do business in long before the Wuhan coronavirus lockdown provided the final straw.

    Musk’s tweet attracted some attention:

    Is this just a negotiating ploy to pressure the county into allowing Tesla to resume manufacturing? Possibly. But plenty of companies have already moved operations from California to Texas, including Toyota, Kubota, and Charles Schwab. And that exodus just keeps continuing.

    I used to do a regular Texas vs. California update, detailing how bad California’s business climate was and detailing all the California businesses going bankrupt or moving to Texas. Eventually I got so far behind that the in-progress post simply got too huge to finish. (And this was right around the time I started doing the Clown Car Update, which sucked up huge amounts of my time.) And then the Wuhan Coronavirus came along to wallop everyone’s economy, so most of those links are probably moot. I have a very strong suspicion that ending the unreasonable lockdown conditions earlier than most states will help Texas recover more strongly, and increase it’s lead as a business-friendly environment over California.

    LinkSwarm for May 8, 2020

    Friday, May 8th, 2020

    The lockdowns are finally ending for Americans (at least in states without Democratic governors), and the lockdown also ended for Michael Flynn, who was finally freed from his Kafkaesque prosecution:

  • Finally! Justice prevails for Michael Flynn:

    The Justice Department has moved to withdraw its case against former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, citing “newly discovered and disclosed information,” according to a new court filing.

    The move, first reported by The Associated Press, comes less than an hour after the top prosecutor on the case, Brandon Van Grack, submitted his withdrawal from the case. The decision said that the White House interview Flynn gave to the FBI, which ultimately led to his guilty plea, was “conducted without any legitimate investigative basis.”

    “The Government is not persuaded that the January 24, 2017 interview was conducted with a legitimate investigative basis and therefore does not believe that Mr. Flynn’s statements were material even if untrue,” the decision states, citing Flynn’s 2017 guilty plea of lying to federal investigators. “Moreover, we do not believe that the Government can prove either the relevant false statements or their materiality beyond a reasonable doubt.”

    Jeff Jensen, the U.S. attorney tasked by Attorney General Bill Barr in February to reviewing the case, recommended that it be dropped. Flynn moved to withdraw his guilty plea in January, saying he “never lied” to FBI agents over his contacts with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

    “Through the course of my review of General Flynn’s case, I concluded the proper and just course was to dismiss the case,” Jensen said in a statement. “I briefed Attorney General Barr on my findings, advised him on these conclusions, and he agreed.” The DOJ’s filing states that Flynn’s contacts with Kislyak “were entirely appropriate on their face.”

    In recent weeks, additional information released in the case has shed scrutiny on the way the case was conducted. Flynn’s lawyer Sidney Powell claimed last month in a court filing that Van Grack had made a “side deal” with Flynn’s former defense team that was withheld from the retired Army general, citing heavily-redacted emails that show Flynn’s former lawyers discussing why the deal needed to be “kept secret,” implying that Flynn would be used to testify in further criminal cases.

    Further documents released last week showed handwritten notes from an FBI official questioning the goal of Flynn’s White House interview with FBI agents Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka, suggesting the intent was “to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired.”

    Another release revealed that Flynn had been the subject of a spinoff surveillance operation under the FBI’s “Crossfire Hurricane” probe of the 2016 Trump campaign.

    Given all the dirt that has come out about Crossfire Hurricane, AKA the Russian Collusion Hoax, AKA The Plot Against the President, this is not the last we’re going to hear about that conspiracy…

  • The Wuhan coronavirus is the disaster that bankrupt blue cities and states have been waiting for:

    The people running states like New Jersey and cities like Chicago know they’re broke. Ridiculously generous public employee pensions – concocted by elected officials and union leaders who had to have understood that they were writing checks their taxpayers couldn’t cover – are bleeding them dry, with no political solution in sight.

    They also know that they have only two possible outs: bankruptcy, or some form of federal bailout. Since the former means a disgraceful end to local political careers while the latter requires some kind of massive crisis to push Washington into a place where a multi-trillion dollar state/city bailout is the least bad option, it’s safe to assume that mayors and governors – along with public sector union leaders – have been hoping for such a crisis to save their bacon.

    And this year they got their wish. The country is on lockdown, unemployment is skyrocketing and mayors and governors now have a plausible way to rebrand their criminal mismanagement as a “natural disaster” deserving of outside help.

  • Hate the continuing lockdowns? Blame Democrats:

    Early estimates of the COVID-19 death rate, cited to justify the lockdowns, have proven far too pessimistic. In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a 3.4 percent fatality rate and Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 percent. As PJ Media’s Matt Margolis reported, at least five studies have placed the death rate below 1 percent, confirming President Donald Trump’s hunch.

    Recent studies have found that far more people than expected have COVID-19 antibodies — meaning the virus has spread faster than previously thought, but also proving that it is far less deadly than previously thought.

    Furthermore, a recent study showed that Democratic governors were three times more likely than Republican governors to impose a lockdown. This would make sense, given the Democratic control over many population centers experiencing large outbreaks: New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., for example. However, the study found that “counterintuitively, the percentage of the state’s population infected with COVID-19 had the weakest effect on the governors’ decisions of all the four variables.”

    The study found that the three most significant variables were political affiliation (a heavy slant toward Democrats), “social learning” (governors of states afflicted by COVID-19 later acted much faster than governors of states who were afflicted early on), and “mini-cascades” (the actions of some governors sparked multiple other governors to order lockdowns in the next three days).

    Both social learning and mini-cascades shine a light on how news of the coronavirus’ danger spread. As states with coronavirus hot spots reacted, other states followed suit, preparing for outbreaks of their own.

    Yet the political slant is also extremely significant, especially considering the different ways state and local officials have carried out their lockdowns. Greenville, Miss. Mayor Errick Simmons notoriously defended his ban on drive-in church services that led to parishioners facing $500 fines. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio threatened to “permanently” close churches and synagogues unless they comply with his orders — and he issued a disgusting threat to the Jewish community in particular. Andy Berke, mayor of Chattanooga, Tenn., banned drive-in church services even though Tennessee’s governor permitted them. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear dispatched the State Police against a church hosting a drive-in service. Police in Virginia threatened a pastor with a year in jail for hosting a socially-distanced church service, enacting Gov. Ralph Northam’s order.

    All these political leaders belong to the same party: the Democratic Party. Not all of the onerous coronavirus restrictions that violate religious freedom have been issued by Democrats, but there is a disturbing correlation between the left-wing party and crisis orders that single out churches, synagogues, and mosques. It seems one party is more likely than the other to think of religion as less than “essential,” and much of that animus traces back to the mistaken idea that religion (Christianity in particular) and science are in conflict.

  • We’re finally getting better Kung-Flu data and weekly peak deaths are falling.
  • Michigan’s Democratic Obergrupenfuhrer Gretchen Whitmer extended the state of emergency (and the lockdown) through May 28, despite lacking authority from the legislature to do so.
  • Maine Yanks Licenses From Restaurateur Who Defied Lockdown, Went On Tucker To Castigate Governor.”

    The outrageous tyranny of Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer and her heavy-handed, illogical, and irresponsible Wuhan coronavirus edicts have finally been outdone by another Democrat governor, this time on the east coast.

    Maine governor Janet Mills jumped on the one-size-fits all Wuhan coronavirus bandwagon, and forced a state-wide shutdown order, including in counties that have tiny numbers of infections and zero deaths.

  • “[Of] the five Upper Midwestern states…Minnesota has both the highest unemployment rate and the worst COVID-19 death rate in the region. Heckuva job, Timmy!” That would be Minnesota’s Democratic governor Tim Walz.
  • Science 1, Social Justice 0:

    As I write this, I am surrounded by silence: not only the silence of a small university town on lockdown but, also, the silence of the feminists and postmodernists as the COVID-19 pandemic has taken over.

    Where are the usual attacks on white male-dominated science? Where’s the “standpoint epistemology” to tell us how different is the knowledge intersectionally-appropriate feminist scientists would bring to this crucial problem? How many of those labs fiercely trying to find a treatment, a vaccine, a path forward, have a demographically appropriate number of women researchers? Not to mention racially and sexually “diverse” ones? What can possibly explain the lack of attention to this terrible problem of marginalization of the already oppressed?

    On a women’s studies listserve I subscribe to, activity has been almost at a standstill for weeks. You’d think with the endless attention paid to the virus there would be vigorous debate about the need to bring feminist, queer, trans, and other such perspectives to bear, and heated discussions of how to convey this to students via distance learning. Or, at the very least, that criticisms would be voiced of the data showing that men are more vulnerable to the virus than women. If one is “assigned” the category of male or female at birth—by now a routine formulation aped even by medical organizations– how could an uncaring virus ever make such a distinction?

    Can anything positive come out of the current crisis? Or, is it strictly a negative to be reminded that reality – the actual physical world, in all its threatening materiality – is not a social construction, and that solutions to a virus must engage with that material world, and not merely attack the rhetoric of disease and the identity of those researching it.

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

  • Hydroxychloroquine helps some but not all:

    Part of the frustration in dealing with a really bad situation is a ravenous hunger for magic bullet solutions. One reader wrote in, contending that hydroxychloroquine is effective 100 percent of the time if it’s administered early enough, so why not reopen society and give everyone a prescription for hydroxychloroquine at the first sign of the virus?

    Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine actually slow down parts of a patient’s immune system by “interfere with lysosomal activity and autophagy, interact with membrane stability and alter signalling pathways and transcriptional activity, which can result in inhibition of cytokine production and modulation of certain co-stimulatory molecules” — which is a jargon-heavy way of saying it makes your immune system’s cells not work as well together.

    People might wonder why anyone would want to take a drug that weakens their immune system. Hydroxychloroquine can be an effective drug for lupus, because with lupus, the body’s immune system becomes overactive and starts attacking healthy, normal cells. It is also used to treat arthritis, because in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, their immune system attacks the lining of their joints. With patients suffering from malaria, the parasite actually can send out “messages” that distract the body’s immune system, causing it to attack healthy red blood cells and ignore the real threat: “While the immune system is busy defending the organism against fake danger, the real infection proceeds inside red blood cells, allowing the parasite to multiply unhindered at dizzying speed. By the time the immune system discovers its mistake, precious time has been lost, and the infection is much more difficult to contain.” Hydroxychloroquine effectively calms down the immune system and along the way binds to the malaria parasite, breaking it apart.

    The coronavirus identified as SARS-CoV-2 can generate a “cytokine storm” — when the body’s immune system kicks into overdrive and starts attacking healthy cells in important organs. Dr. Randy Cron, an expert on cytokine storms at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, told the New York Times last month that in about 15 percent of coronavirus patients, the body’s defense mechanism of cytokines fight off the invading virus, but then attack multiple organs including the lungs and liver, and may eventually lead to death. As the patient’s body fights its own lungs, fluid gets into the lungs, and the patient dies of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    From this, you can get a sense of how and why hydroxychloroquine might be effective in some circumstances and not others. If the patient’s immune system is strong enough to fight off the coronavirus, but is at risk of going into overdrive and setting off a cytotkine storm, administering the right amount of hydroxychloroquine might put their immune system back in the Goldilocks zone — strong enough to fight off and defeat the virus, but not so strong that it starts attacking vital organs by mistake. It’s also easy to see why we would only want people taking this drug under a doctor’s recommendation and possibly supervision — take the drug too early, and you suppress the body’s immune system just when it needs that system functioning well to fight off the invading virus. Take the drug too late, and the damage to the vital organs can’t be overcome.

  • “FDA Pulls Approval for Dozens of Mask Makers in China.” They’re garbage that doesn’t meet spec. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Hey media: Do you think you could stop publishing the same #NeverTrump piece over and over again?

    Media outlets treat conservative Americans as second-class citizens whose arguments don’t need to be listened to or engaged with. Instead, they take the vanishingly small number of column inches or pundit panel seats they have and give the “conservative” slots to people who repeatedly disparage conservative elected officials, their voters, and their policies.

    In some cases, the supposed “conservatives” have long ago renounced their conservatism. The Washington Post’s Max Boot, the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, and Twitter’s Bill Kristol receive a great deal of mockery for their boring obsession with Orange Man Bad, an obsession that has led them to renounce every one of the policy positions they once held.

    Even as their positions change in response to whatever Trump has said, NeverTrump is known for writing the same column over and over again. It’s usually headlined something like “Why Trump And His Voters Are So Awful That They Forced Me To Leave the GOP But Also Remember To Please Continue Calling Me A Republican To Preserve The TV/Column Gigs That Depend On Me Claiming I’m On The Right Even Though I Am Now Aligned With Democrats, Write Columns About How I Vote For Them, And Generally Work To Help Them Gain More Political Power.”

  • “Democrat On Committee To Oversee Coronavirus Stimulus Payouts Broke Federal Law By Failing To Report Stock Sales.” That would be Florida Representative (and former Clinton Administration official) Donna Shalala.
  • “Illinois governor says churches may not fully reopen for a year or more because of coronavirus.” I don’t think the constitution is going to agree with you there, sport… (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Good Samaritan health care workers: I will go to New York to help out with the crush of Wuhan coronavirus cases! Andrew Cuomo: Fark you, have some more taxes.
  • Twitter decides to Big Brother harder.
  • The Supreme Court unanimously bitch-slapped the Ninth Circuit for ruling that a federal statue that makes it illegal to encourage illegal aliens to come to the U.S. was unconstitutional. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg delivered the opinion.
  • “I’m going to eat at these places even harder now. Thanks a lot, #Karen.”
  • Friend-of-the-blog Karl Rehn offers up Ammo 101.
  • As if we didn’t have enough deadly Asian intruders this year, say hello to Murder Hornets.

  • Tengujo, the thinnest paper in the world. (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
  • Florida South Carolina woman grabs gator. It turns out exactly how you would expect. (Hat tip: The Other McCain.)
  • Surprise!

  • I’m going to try to get to the Shelly Luther and Project Veritas stories this weekend.

    Gov. Abbott Unveils Plan To Reopen Texas

    Tuesday, April 28th, 2020

    After much criticism from conservative activists that he was moving too slowly to reopen the Texas economy, Governor Greg Abbott has finally unveiled his plan to do just that.

    Governor Greg Abbott today announced the first phase of the State of Texas’ ongoing plan to safely and strategically open Texas while minimizing the spread of COVID-19. Under Phase I, certain services and activities are allowed to open with limited occupancy, and the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) is issuing minimum standard health protocols for all businesses and individuals to follow. The Governor also outlined special guidance for Texans over 65 and detailed a comprehensive mitigation plan for nursing homes in Texas. The Governor also announced a statewide testing and tracing program developed by DSHS that will help public health officials quickly identify and test Texans who contract COVID-19 and mitigate further spread of the virus.

    The Governor’s announcement is accompanied by Texans Helping Texans: The Governor’s Report to Open Texas. This detailed report, available on the strike force website, helps Texans understand phase one by outlining the new protocols, guidance, and recommendations. The report also includes a series of Open Texas Checklists that outline DSHS’ minimum standard health protocols for all Texans.

    “This strategic approach to opening the state of Texas prioritizes the health and safety of our communities and follows the guidelines laid out by our team of medical experts,” said Governor Abbott. “Now more than ever, Texans must remain committed to safe distancing practices that reduce the spread of COVID-19, and we must continue to rely on doctors and data to provide us with the safest strategies to restore Texans’ livelihoods. We must also focus on protecting the most vulnerable Texans from exposure to COVID-19. If we remain focused on protecting the lives of our fellow Texans, we can continue to open the Lone Star State.”

    By way of Executive Order (GA-18), all retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters, and malls are permitted to reopen on Friday, May 1. These services must limit their capacity to 25% of their listed occupancy. Within shopping malls, the food-court dining areas, play areas, and interactive displays and settings must remain closed.

    All museums and libraries may open under the same 25% occupancy limitation, but interactive areas of museums must remain closed. State libraries and museums will open by May 1, and local public museums and libraries may reopen only if permitted by the local government. Single-person offices may reopen as well.

    Churches and places of worship remain open. Outdoor sports are allowed to resume so long as no more than four participants are playing together at one time. Certain social distancing practices must also be followed. Local government operations, including county and municipal government operations relating to permitting, recordation, and document-filing services, may reopen as determined by the local government.

    DSHS has recommended minimum standard health protocols for all individuals, all employers and employees, as well as industry-specific protocols for retailers, retail customers, restaurants, restaurant patrons, movie theaters, movie theater customers, museums and libraries, museum and library visitors, outdoor sports participants, single-person offices, and low COVID-19 counties. These protocols are outlined in the Open Texas Checklists within the Governor’s report beginning on page 20.

    Essential services such as farmers and ranchers, grocery and drug stores, banks, and gas stations will continue to operate. Public swimming pools, bars, gyms, cosmetology salons, massage establishments, interactive amusement venues, such as bowling alleys and video arcades, and tattoo and piercing studios will remain closed through Phase I. Nursing homes, state supported living centers, assisted living facilities, and long-term care facilities must remain closed to visitors unless to provide critical assistance.

    The Governor also established increased occupancy protocols for certain counties with five or fewer laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19. Those counties may, on an individualized basis, increase occupancy limits to up to 50% for restaurants, retail, shopping malls, museums and libraries, and movie theaters if they meet certain criteria. The county judge must certify and affirm to DSHS that the following standards have been investigated and confirmed to be met:

    1. The county had five or fewer COVID-19 laboratory confirmed cases on April 30, 2020 or, at a later date, five or fewer active COVID-19 cases as verified by DSHS.
    2. The county has created a list of testing opportunities in the county or the area.
    3. The county has been in contact with its designated regional advisory council to ensure the community is prepared for any needed health care transfers.
    4. The county has provided public notice to the residents of the county, including: Signs and symptoms of COVID-19: Recommended health and safety protocols in line with CDC guidance; Information regarding how residents can get tested in the area; A link to the DSHS website where residents can go to learn about community spread in nearby communities, in order to help county residents understand their risk to exposure if they travel regularly outside of the county.
    5. The county has contacted each of the following types of facilities located in the county to ensure they are complying with Texas Health and Human Services (HHSC) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines regarding COVID-19: Nursing homes; Assisted living facilities; Industrial, agricultural, or business facilities with a significant number of employees; and City or county jails.
    6. The county is equipped and prepared to protect vulnerable populations, including nursing homes and assisted living facilities.
    7. The county has documented procedures to be activated if a resident becomes COVID-19 positive, including procedures to take appropriate measures as necessary in line with the plan to open Texas.
    8. The county has contacted DSHS in order to create a plan to ensure contact tracing will occur within 48 hours of a positive test reported to DSHS.

    Phase I will begin Friday May 1 and continue until at least May 18. The Governor will continue to evaluate next steps for the state.

    I like the fact that there’s some movement to reopen the economy, and that there’s finally a recognition that it’s stupid for Harris and Loving counties to be following the same rules. In fact, I’d prefer to see counties with no reported cases open up 100%.

    What I dislike is the institutional hypocrisy of imposing rules that no one is going to enforce. Do you think police are going to go around calculating capacity? “Hey! This place is 27% full! You, get out!”

    Outdoor sports with four people sounds like a pander to the golf set, although I suppose tennis, boxing and mixed martial arts would all qualify if it occurs outdoors, but five people playing Frisbee? Verboten!

    The restaurant patron guidelines have all the power of Austin Powers saying “Oh, behave!

    I’m OK with continued nursing home guidelines.

    I would like to see more bias toward freedom in these guidelines and less toward ass-covering, with lots of guidelines that seem to be there just so Abbott and company can say “I told them to do X!” if infection rates start rising again.

    My guess is they won’t, based on the almost universal infection decline curve exhibited in various countries, and increasing evidence that sunlight/hard UV kills the virus. In fact, on that basis I’d like to see limited reopening of bars for outdoor service. Maybe in Phase 2?

    Texas has the second-best recovery rate from infection of any state:

    Our hospitals are not overwhelmed, so we have the capacity to handle an uptick in cases.

    Based on those metrics, I would have liked to see more boldness from Gov. Abbott than shown here. Abbott’s advisory board seems to be looking at the early (inaccurate) models rather than latter data.

    Still, an overly timid reopening is much better than no reopening at all…

    Less Than Zero

    Tuesday, April 21st, 2020

    That headline refers to May oil futures for West Texas Intermediate crude, which evidently bottomed out at a negative $37.67 a barrel yesterday. That means an oil company would pay you that much a barrel to take physical delivery.

    Here’s a series of tweets that explains what that actually means so I don’t have to.

    If you’re still unclear why an oil futures contract holder would pay you to take oil off their hands, here’s a visual explanation featuring Mr. Creosote from Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life.

    And evidently you’d have to take delivery of at least 1,000 barrels of oil in Cushing, Oklahoma. (FYI, each oil barrel contains 42 gallons of crude, which in turn can be refined to 19-20 gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of diesel, and various amounts of other petroleum products.)

    This is the direct result of two whammies, the Russian-Saudi oil price war and the coronavirus lockdown cratering demand, which have combined to send crude oil prices through the floor. And it only applies to West Texas Intermediate May futures; Brent Crude, another oil benchmark price based on North Sea oil, was still trading at about $26 a barrel, and WTI June futures are $21.41 a barrel; horribly low by historical standards, but not negative.

    But in overnight trading, May WTI turned positive again. Left to its own devices, the market has a tendency to correct itself. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instpundit.)

    The oil and gas industry has been taking it on the chin this year, and this is just another indicator. The Exxon-Mobils of the world will come out fine, but a lot of small producers are going to be in a world of hurt (and many will probably go out of business) due to this black swan confluence.

    (And remember a decade ago, when certain pundits were confidently predicting “peak oil?”)