Posts Tagged ‘Semiconductors’

Nvidia News Roundup

Wednesday, April 16th, 2025

A few pieces of Nvidia-specific news have popped since Monday’s piece, so let’s do a quick roundup:

  • In a comment on Monday’s post, I mentioned that production at TSMC’s new Arizona fab hadn’t started yet. In fact, Nvidia just announced that TSMC’s Arizona fab just started work on their chips.

    On Monday, Nvidia announced that it has started producing its Blackwell AI GPUs at TSMC’s plant in Phoenix, Arizona, while companies within the state package and test them.

    TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., is the world’s biggest chipmaker and announced a $100 billion investment in US chipmaking last month. It began producing chips using the 4nm process at its Arizona factory in January and has plans to make chips with the more efficient 2nm technology by the end of the decade.

    Nvidia doesn’t say which Blackwell chips it has started producing at TSMC’s plant and whether it includes the latest Blackwell Ultra GB300 chip it revealed earlier this year. Blackwell chips use TSMC’s custom 4NP process, according to Nvidia’s website.

  • Nvidia has also announced a large expansion in Texas.

    The world’s leading manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPU) and advanced chips has announced it will build new plants in Texas, amid global economic shake-ups.

    Note: Plants, not fabs.

    NVIDIA has announced partnerships with Foxconn and Wistron to build “supercomputer manufacturing plants” in both Dallas and Houston. These global companies are “expanding their global footprint” and their international presence for the purposes of “hardening supply chain resilience” in their partnership with NVIDIA.

    “Manufacturing NVIDIA AI chips and supercomputers for American AI factories is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive trillions of dollars in economic security over the coming decades,” the announcement states.

    The mass production of chips at these plants is expected to begin in the next 12 to 15 months. The $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure within the U.S. does not make mention of direct government subsidies or public financial incentives related to NVIDIA’s recent announcement.

    I’m quoting that summary because it demonstrates that it’s easy to misunderstand things about the industry if you aren’t familiar with it. The way it’s worded make you think the “plants” are the Texas facilities they’re going to be building in 12-15 months, but the actual Nvidia press release makes clear than TSMC is doing the fabbing:

    NVIDIA is working with its manufacturing partners to design and build factories that, for the first time, will produce NVIDIA AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S.

    Together with leading manufacturing partners, the company has commissioned more than a million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test NVIDIA Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas.

    Note the more precise wording.

    NVIDIA Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona. NVIDIA is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas. Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.

    The AI chip and supercomputer supply chain is complex and demands the most advanced manufacturing, packaging, assembly and test technologies. NVIDIA is partnering with Amkor and SPIL for packaging and testing operations in Arizona.

    Within the next four years, NVIDIA plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL. These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with NVIDIA, growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience.

    Now, if that half trillion does get spent (no guarantee, since press releases aren’t legally binding; try to contain your shock), that would certainly buy a lot of cutting edge fabs. Nvidia is one of the few companies that has the financial resources to build their own cutting edge fabs (Apple is another), but I get the impression that they’re going to partner with TSMC. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they follow the Apple model, where they tell a company “Here’s X amount of money, go build a fab. You’ll give us the first 24 months of production at x-cost per chip, and after that the fab is yours free and clear.” This is one of the tools Apple used to become the dominate tech buyer, and what some call a monopsony.

    As far as building their own supercomputers, that’s great for Texas and not so great for Hewett Packard Enterprise, which finished their acquisition of Cray in 2021.

  • Finally, Nvidia’s AI chips are now banned from export to China.

    The Trump administration has effectively barred Nvidia (NVDA) from selling its custom artificial intelligence processors to customers in China. The move will force the AI chip leader to write off up to $5.5 billion in inventory and purchase commitments in its fiscal first quarter. Nvidia stock fell Wednesday.

    Late Tuesday, Nvidia disclosed in a regulatory filing that the U.S. government is now requiring it to get an export license to sell its H20 processor in China and other restricted countries. Nvidia said it was informed of the move on April 9, the same day NPR erroneously reported that the White House would not seek further restrictions on the chips Nvidia can sell in China.

    Your tax dollars at work.

    Nvidia said the U.S. government told it on Monday that the license requirement will be in effect for the indefinite future.

    Wall Street analysts say Nvidia’s write-off indicates that the company believes it won’t be granted licenses to sell H20 processors in China.

    The H20 was designed for the Chinese market to comply with Biden-era restrictions on selling advanced processors there. The H20 is less capable than the Blackwell series chips Nvidia sells in the U.S. and other markets.

    “With Nvidia writing off associated H20 inventory, it appears the company is taking the position that it will not be granted licenses to ship product to Chinese customers (with no other geography likely to take the governed silicon given the availability of more powerful standard Hopper or Blackwell SKUs),” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said in a client note Wednesday. SKU stands for “stock keeping unit,” a unique identifier for products used in inventory management.

    China represents a little over 10% of Nvidia’s revenue.

    The Trump Administrations believes (probably correctly) that AI is a key strategic industry and that we don’t need to give China any help there.

  • A half trillion dollars is a lot of cheddar, even for the (as of today) company with the third largest market cap in the world…

    The Semiconductors Tariff Yo-yo

    Monday, April 14th, 2025

    There’s been a lot of confusion over tariffs on Chinese semiconductors and electronics the last few days.

    First came word that a lot of semiconductors and electronics will be exempt from the tariffs.

    The Trump administration released new guidance late Friday night on its tariff on China, exempting electronic devices such as smartphones and laptops.

    The guidance, posted by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which oversees collecting taxes on imports, could relieve some anxiety among consumers and tech giants like Apple and Microsoft, which manufacture many of their products in China, The Wall Street Journal reported. Around 20 electronic products — which also include memory cards and machines used to make flatscreens and tablets — will now be exempted from Trump’s massive “reciprocal” tariff on China. The exemption comes after the president increased the tariff on China in recent days in response to China’s retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods.

    Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy and Homeland Security adviser, wrote on X, “These products are subject to the tariff under the original IEEPA [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] on China of 20 percent.” The IEEPA tariff was the first one Trump imposed on China after taking office in January. The tariff was levied on China, along with Canada and Mexico, in an attempt to “hold” the countries “to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country.”

    The Trump administration has suggested that the tariff on China will encourage companies, including Big Tech companies, to manufacture their products on U.S. soil, arguing that the move would be better for the economy and national security.

    “President Trump has made it clear America cannot rely on China to manufacture critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones, and laptops,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Saturday, according to the Wall Street Journal. She added, “Companies are hustling to onshore their manufacturing in the United States as soon as possible.”

    (Apple, meanwhile, has already made plans to avoid teriffs on Chinese electronics by moving production to India and flying planeloads of iPhones into the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline.)

    Next came word that the pause in semiconductor tariffs will only be a month or two.

    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the administration’s decision Friday night to exempt a range of electronic devices from tariffs implemented earlier this month was only a temporary reprieve, with the secretary announcing that those items would be subject to “semiconductor tariffs” that will likely come in “a month or two.”

    “All those products are going to come under semiconductors, and they’re going to have a special focus type of tariff to make sure that those products get reshored. We need to have semiconductors, we need to have chips, and we need to have flat panels* — we need to have these things made in America. We can’t be reliant on Southeast Asia for all of the things that operate for us,” Lutnick told “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl.

    He continued, “So what [President Donald Trump’s] doing is he’s saying they’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two. So these are coming soon.”

    With all respect to President Trump and Secretary Lutnick, you can’t set up a new fab to manufacture semiconductors in America in two months. In fact, you’d be really hard-pressed to do it in two years. It usually takes a fab about three years to get up and running. Bosch took three years to get their 65nm fab in Dresden up and running, and Samsung broke ground on their Taylor fab in 2022 and it hasn’t entered production yet.

    Setting up a semiconductor fabrication plant is much more difficult and time-consuming than setting up just about any other factory.

    As I’ve mentioned before, you can’t just take an existing building and turn it into a fab, it has to be specially built from the ground up with exacting standards for cleanroom air filtering, concrete slab level uniformity, etc. You need extremely exacting air purity handling equipment, as well as a system for running de-ionized water throughout the plant. Then you need to purchase, install, bring up and qualify all the hundreds of pieces of semiconductor equipment necessary to run a modern fab. And 2-3 years is probably the lead time to get an ASML EUV stepper, if you’re going to be building a cutting edge fab. (If the goal is to reshore the semiconductor industry, then you probably need to build a lot of less-demanding fabs as well.)

    I’m in favor of the Trump Administration using tariffs to bring other countries to the negotiating table to eliminate their tariffs on American goods, and for kicking China out of the global free trade order for repeatedly breaking the rules and just being general asshats. But a two-month difference in tariff implementation dates isn’t going to change the timeline for opening new semiconductor fabrication plants in America.


    *Flat panel display manufacturing uses some of the same semiconductor processes to make displays. The technology is less demanding overall, but the substrate sizes are considerably larger. Because the feature size is less demanding, I imagine bring-up and qualification is somewhat quicker, but I’ve never worked on a flat panel display machine, so I have no idea how the lead time varies to obtain and install that equipment.

    Are Trump’s Tariffs Working?

    Monday, April 7th, 2025

    Are Trump’s tariffs working? Falling stock prices and gloom and doom MSM posts may suggest otherwise, but there’s a growing body of anecdotal evidence that suggests the tariff announcement already has a host of foreign nations eager to make a deal to eliminate tariffs.

    So right now, let’s say: Maybe

    First up, a whole lot of countries seem eager to strike trade deals with the Trump Administration. “More than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to negotiate on tariffs, Kevin Hassett, the White House’s national economic council director, said on Fox News on Monday.”

    The EU also says it wants to negotiate.

    The European Union has offered the United States an agreement on the reciprocal lifting of all tariffs on industrial goods, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Monday, days before 20% tariffs on EU exports enter into force.

    “Europe is always ready for a good deal, so we keep it on the table,” von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels.

    The EU remains ready to negotiate a solution despite US President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions, she said, after an exchange with representatives from the steel and metals industries.

    The US imposed tariffs of up to 25% on imports of steel, aluminium and related derivative products from the EU and other trading partners in March.

    Note that agricultural products weren’t mentioned. I’m guessing that will be a sticking point for the Trump Administration.

    Then there’s Vietnam, which says it’s ready to eliminate all tariffs.

    Confirming that Trump’s “dealmaking” was about to shine, on Friday Trump posted on his Truth Social account, announced that he had a “very productive” call with the head of the Vietnamese communist party, adding that if Vietnam wants to cut their tariffs to “ZERO”, all they have to do is “make an agreement with the U.S.”…

    Fast forward just one day, and we have an example of the first official capitulation by a trading counterparty as Bloomberg reports that Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on US imports after Donald Trump announced a 46% levy on the Southeast Asian nation, according to an April 5 letter from Vietnam’s communist party.

    The offer was made by party chief To Lam to the US president in a letter that was seen by Bloomberg. In the letter, Lam requested that the US not apply any additional tariffs or fees on Vietnamese goods and asked to postpone the implementation of the tariff announced by Trump last week by at least 45 days after April 9.

    The letter confirms comments made by Trump on Friday on his Truth Social network, following a call between the two leaders. Vietnam, which has increasingly become a key manufacturing and export alternative to China, was slapped with one of the highest tariff rates worldwide last Wednesday.

    Expect all the companies profiled as the biggest casualties from the Vietnam tariffs to soar, as the market realizes that for all the posturing, Trump’s tariffs were just that: a negotiating chip to minimize trade barriers against the US, which as Vietnam so aptly demonstrated, are now well on their way out.

    Also coming to the table: Taiwan.

    In addition to the news about Vietnam bending the knee, The Epoch Times’ Jacob Burg reports that Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te on April 6 said his nation would offer zero tariffs and no retaliation as the start of negotiations with the United States while vowing to remove trade barriers.

    Lai said Taiwanese companies will also increase their investments in the United States. The comments were made in response to sweeping import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2. Taiwan has a trade surplus with America and will see a 32 percent tariff on its imports into the United States.

    The new tariffs do not, however, affect semiconductors, one of Taiwan’s largest exports.

    So it looks like the majority of my instant analysis of Trump’s tariff’s effects on the semiconductor industry was wrong.

    It’s less than a week since Trump’s announcement, and a whole lot of countries seem extremely eager to make a deal and remove tariffs on American goods. Trump has long been hailed as a master negotiator, and one of his main tactics to to directly threaten one of the most precious things the other side has in order to bring them to the table to make a deal.

    As far as retaliatory tariffs from other countries, there’s a lot of muttering, but evidently only China has threatened an immediate 34% tariff, and Trump is threatening another 50% tariff on China on top of the previous ones as a retaliation to the retaliation. Honestly, I don’t think Trump much cares whether China signs up to eliminate tariffs. China was already cheating so many ways on trade, and is obviously America’s greatest strategic rival, that Trump probably wouldn’t mind completely decoupling red China from the American trade system.

    A feature, not a bug.

    There are enough facets to that last point that it may be worth a separate post…

    Instant Analysis: Trump Tariff Effects On Semiconductors

    Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025

    President Trump announced his tariffs on countries, especially those that tariff goods from the United States.

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed sweeping new tariffs on all imported goods and unveiled a detailed list of reciprocal duties targeting more than 60 countries, asserting that the move is necessary to combat trade imbalances and restore U.S. manufacturing.

    “This is Liberation Day,” Trump said during a Rose Garden ceremony, holding up a printed chart of countries and their new tariff rates. “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.”

    The tariffs, which he described as “reciprocal,” fulfill a key campaign pledge and are aimed at pressuring trade partners to lower their own barriers. The administration expects the new rates to remain in place until the U.S. narrows a $1.2 trillion trade imbalance recorded last year.

    But the extensive list of tariffs also threatens to upend the U.S. economy, as many — but not all — economists say they amount to taxes on American companies that will be passed down to consumers.

    Trump held up a chart while speaking at the White House, showing the United States would charge a 34 percent tax on imports from China, a 20 percent tax on imports from the European Union, 25 percent on South Korea, 24 percent on Japan and 32 percent on Taiwan.

    The centerpiece of the announcement is a 10 percent universal baseline tariff on all imports, effective immediately. For instance, Chinese imports are now subject to cascading tariffs of 10, 20 and 34 percent, for a total of 54 percent.

    In addition, Trump’s administration imposed country-specific reciprocal tariffs on nations it accuses of unfair trade practices — including India, Vietnam, and the European Union, in adding to China. The rates are calibrated at approximately half the rate those countries impose on U.S. goods.

    For example, China, which Trump said charges 67 percent in tariffs on U.S. goods when factoring in non-tariff barriers, will now face a 34 percent reciprocal tariff under the new system, in addition to the 10 percent baseline tariff and the 20 percent tariffs already in effect. Vietnam, assessed at 90 percent, will face a 46 percent tariff; India at 52 percent will now see 26 percent duties; and the EU, which imposes 39 percent, will be met with a 20 percent response, according to the White House chart.

    This is a “devil in the details” issue that has a lot of ramifications depending on how the directives are written. But several of those countries are big players in semiconductors, so here’s a quick and dirty look at winners and losers if those tariffs stay in place a significant amount of time.

    The main countries here, along with the reciprocal tariffs being applied to them:

  • Taiwan (32%)
  • South Korea (25%)
  • China (34%)
  • European Union (not a country, but they play one on TV) (20%)
  • Japan (24%)
  • Singapore (10%)
  • Israel (17%)
  • Save a few smaller, older fabs here and there, that’s pretty much 99% of semiconductor manufacturing, though Vietnam (46%) and the Philippines (17%) do a lot of semiconductor package assembly work, and the tariffs may apply to them, depending on wording.

    So let’s look at the business Losers and Winners in the space. (Note: You might find this post useful, as it defines some of the semiconductor industry terms used here.)

    Losers

  • TSMC: As the world’s biggest and most important chip foundry, the Taiwanese tariffs will hit TSMC hard. Their U.S. fab in Arizona isn’t ready for production yet, so all their chips will (theoretically) get hit with tariffs, assuming Trump doesn’t grant them a waiver because they’re already constructing a plant. But if they do go into effect, possibly even more heavily impacted will be:
  • TSMC customers, including Apple, Nvidia and AMD. All three get their very highest-end, cutting edge, sub-10nm chips fabbed there. For Apple, the M-series and A-series chips made there form the heart of all their Macs and iPhones. Likewise, Nvidia gets its highest end GPU/AI/etc. chips fabbed by TSMC. AMD’s most powerful CPU’s are also fabbed by TSMC, though some lower end chips are made elsewhere (like GlobalFoundries).
  • Tokyo Electron: Japan’s biggest semiconductor equipment manufacturer assembles pretty much all their equipment in their home country. 24% tariffs may make their equipment uneconomical compared to rivals Applied Materials and LAM Research.
  • South Korean DRAM manufacturers Samsung and SK Hynix: 25% tariffs will definitely impact sales in a market segment whose overall margins (robust in booms, and barely breaking even during busts) are thinner than others.
  • Every American electronics company that uses DRAM. Which is pretty much every American electronics company.
  • Every American AI boom company. Their data center costs are going up, while those of their foreign competitors are not.
  • Korean flat panel display manufacturers Samsung and LG Semicon, who between them control over 50% of the market.
  • Every American TV and monitor manufacturer, the vast majority of which have their devices manufactured overseas.
  • UMC: They’d fallen woefully behind TSMC for foundry work, and they won’t be winning much additional American business now.
  • Every company trying to build a sub-10nm fab in the U.S., as steppers from Netherlands-based ASML just got more expensive and the competition to obtain them might have increased.
  • Pretty much every fab in China just got more screwed…but they were pretty screwed (and trailing badly) before.
  • American fabless chip startups: Their costs for getting chips to market probably increased.
  • Winners

  • Applied Materials, LAM Research and KLA Tencor. Buying competing Tokyo Electron equipment just got more expensive, and a bunch of companies now have incentives to build fabs in America.
  • Intel: Assuming they’ve finally got their process technology sorted out (a big if), they’re well-positioned to take CPU market share from AMD and to grow their under-performing foundry business.
  • Micron (sort of): As the only American DRAM manufacturer, they can probably earn more per each chip produced domestically. But Micron has a lot of overseas fabs these days, and building new domestic DRAM fabs will take years.
  • GlobalFoundries: The costs of their global competitors just increased, so they can probably win more business for their domestic foundries…if they have the available wafer starts. But they have a lot of foreign fabs as well.
  • Samsung‘s US foundry business. Presumably the wafer starts for their Austin and Taylor fabs will see increased demand.
  • Maybe Texas Instruments, but I’m not sure how much mixed-signal and analog competition they have, and that’s their bread and butter.
  • Neutral

  • ASML: Being in the Netherlands and having TSMC as their biggest customer, you figure they’d be hurt, but no. You can’t get EUV steppers from anyone else, and I get the impression they’re building EUV steppers as fast as they possibly can already. Anyone building a cutting-edge fab will just have to pay more to get them.
  • Tower Semiconductor: Half their foundries are in Israel and half in the U.S., so I figure it’s a wash.
  • That’s my quick and dirty analysis. Of course, Trump is using tariffs like a battering ram to smash foreign tariffs, and if he’s immediately successful, there probably will only be minor hiccups in the global supply chain. But if not, a whole lot of disruption might lie ahead, and it usually takes a minimum of 3-5 years to bring a new fab online.

    LinkSwarm For March 14, 2025

    Friday, March 14th, 2025

    Government leftists at USAID call to break the law to cover their tracks, DOGE uncovers still more outrageous examples of government waste, Democratic bagman john Podesta showered billions on newly created NGOs, billions in LA homeless funds are unaccounted for, Syrian jihadis slaughter civilians, more pedo teachers get caught, lobbyists rake in big bucks, and the heart-stopping thrills of a man…baking.

    It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • “Shred And Burn All Documents”: USAID Staff Ordered To Destroy Evidence On Tuesday.” How is this not committing multiple felonies?

    A senior USAID official on Tuesday ordered the agency’s remaining staff to report to their now-former headquarters in Washington DC for an “all day” group effort to destroy documents, many of which contain sensitive information, Politico reports.

    The materials marked for destruction include “classified safes and personnel documents” at the Ronald Reagan Building, according to an email sent by USAID’s acting executive director, Erica Carr.

    “Shred as many documents first, and reserve the burn bags for when the shredder becomes unavailable or needs a break,” read the email instructing staff to label the burn bags with “SECRET” and “USAID/B/IO” (which stands for “bureau or independent office”) in dark sharpie.

    Again, how is this not breaking the The Federal Records Act and other laws against destroying evidence?

  • EPA $375B Climate Slush Fund Handled by John Podesta Only Gave to New Charities.”

    Legal Insurrection readers may recall that late last year, Brent Efron, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) special advisor implementing Biden’s climate agenda, made many controversial statements during an undercover video about the agency’s actions in anticipation of a potential Trump administration.

    Efron reportedly told Project Veritas that the EPA was rapidly distributing billions of dollars in grants to nonprofits as an “insurance policy” against Trump winning the election. He described the situation as “throwing gold bars off the Titanic,” referring to the urgency with which the agency allocates funds.

    Now the Trump Administration has followed those gold bars. An exclusive report by the New York Post indicates the trail of those bars led back to Deep State Obama/Biden minion, John Podesta.

    The story began in September 2022, when Biden named Podesta to helm the $375 billion climate fund, which resulted from the Inflation Reduction Act, a 2022 law that was basically “Green New Deal” poison hidden beneath a wrapper of sweet economic promises.

    Here is how The New York Times announced the 2022 fund creation:

    As a senior adviser to Mr. Biden on clean energy innovation, Mr. Podesta will shape how the government disburses billions of dollars in tax credits and incentives to industries that are developing wind and solar energy, as well as to consumers who want to install solar panels, heat and cool their homes with electric heat pumps or buy electric vehicles.

    ..In an interview, Mr. Podesta described his new job as “throwing the weight of federal government policy behind a cycle of investment and innovation that we haven’t seen before in the United States, and that is almost unique in the world.”

    There was absolutely no questioning by The New York Times as to where these monies would go, or how the funds would be used to help either our climate or energy industry.

    On the other hand, the New York Post has a map of the gold bar trail. Apparently, billions went to “Non-Governmental Organizations” that were founded after the fund was created.

    The Biden administration funneled at least $20 billion dollars into environmental groups, most of which had only recently been founded, The Post has discovered.

    In one case, former Vice President Kamala Harris handed over a check for nearly $7 billion to Bethesda, Maryland, based group Climate United Fund, which does not appear in the IRS’s charities database, and has no federal filings.

    The non-profit fund had only been incorporated in Delaware on November 30, 2023, according to public records, five months before Harris handed over the cash in April 2024.

    The Climate United Fund then announced “the historic investment” in a press release, noting the group’s work “delivers benefits like cleaner air…and increased energy security.”’

    However, because the company is so new, there is no publicly published accounting of how it plans to spend the $7 billion.

    Climate Fund, which received nearly $7 billion in Biden Climate Gold, was just one of eight similarly set-up entities. Others are:

    • Coalition for Green Capital: Received $5 billion
    • Power Forward Communities: Received $2 billion
    • Opportunity Finance Network: Received $2.29 billion
    • Inclusiv: Received $1.87 billion
    • Justice Climate Fund: Received $940 million
    • Appalachian Community Capital: Received $500 million
    • Native CDFI Network: Received $400 million

    Every one of these should be sued and audited.

  • Schumer caves, Senate passes Republican spending bill.
  • “Federal Judge Denies Request To Block DOGE From Accessing Treasury Data.” Good.
  • Exposed: Secret Pact Between 14 Blue States, Left-Wing Groups, and NYC Law Firms.”

    Well, well, well. It’s hardly a surprise to discover that the wave of lawsuits against Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is no coincidence. The Oversight Project at the Heritage Foundation has obtained a copy of a secret agreement outlining a coordinated legal offensive—an alliance between 14 blue states, left-wing activist groups, and prominent NYC law firms—all targeting DOGE and Musk himself.

    What is surprising, however, is that they actually formalized their nefarious intentions.

    Signed less than a month after DOGE began operations, this agreement is yet another example of the Democrats’ “whatever it takes” brand of political warfare.

    The document begins:

    This Common Interest Agreement (“Agreement) is made and entered into by and between the States of New Mexico, Arizona, Michigan, Califomia [sic], Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington and State Democracy Defenders Fund (the “Parties”). The Parties have agreed that they have a common interest in developing legal strategies to challenge the creation and actions of the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE) and the actions of Elon Musk as a special government employee and a common interest in existing or future investigative, regulatory, administrative, and judicial actions or inactions, including but not limited to any administrative or judicial proceedings related to or arising from those legal strategies (“Matters of Common Interest”).

    “The Democrats are on the wrong end of an 80-20 issue, fighting tooth and nail to block a federal government audit that has already uncovered more than $105 billion in fraud, waste, and abuse. A recent Harvard/Harris poll shows that 76% of voters support DOGE’s efforts, yet Democrats—whose job is to represent the interests of their constituents—have gone to extraordinary lengths to obstruct it, even putting their opposition in writing.”

  • “The top 20 wildest revelations about Arabella Advisors and how they’ve redirected American tax dollars—or leveraged tax-exempt structures—for actions largely hidden from the American public.”

    1. Billions in “Dark Money” Outpacing Political Parties
    Arabella’s network raised $2.4 billion in the 2020 election cycle, dwarfing the combined fundraising of the Democratic and Republican National Committees. This tax-exempt cash, hidden from public scrutiny, fueled anti-Trump campaigns and progressive agendas, all while average Americans had no clue their tax system enabled it. It’s a shadow operation that makes traditional political spending look like pocket change.

    2. Fake Grassroots “Pop-Ups” Everywhere
    The Sixteen Thirty Fund, an Arabella spoke, spins up temporary “pop-up” groups like Floridians for a Fair Shake or Opportunity Wisconsin, which vanish after their mission—say, attacking a senator or pushing a ballot measure—is done. These tax-exempt fronts, funded by anonymous donors, masquerade as local movements while redirecting millions to sway elections, leaving taxpayers blind to the manipulation. It’s a conveyor belt of synthetic activism, exploiting 501(c) loopholes.

    3. Funding Supreme Court Protests
    Demand Justice, birthed by the Sixteen Thirty Fund, spent millions opposing Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation, complete with costumed activists and aggressive ad blitzes. This tax-exempt war chest didn’t just influence public opinion—it tried to bully the judiciary, all subsidized by a tax code Americans fund. Most folks never connected the dots to Arabella’s puppet strings behind the chaos.

    4. Zuck Bucks’ Election Meddling
    Arabella’s New Venture Fund funneled $25 million to the Center for Tech and Civic Life, which then got $350 million from Mark Zuckerberg to “administer” 2020 elections—read: juice Democratic turnout in swing states. Tax-exempt dollars turned local election offices into partisan tools, and the public was none the wiser about this backdoor power grab. It’s a masterclass in using charity status to rig the game.

    5. Foreign Billionaires Pulling Levers
    Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss has pumped at least $208 million into the Sixteen Thirty Fund since 2016, exploiting tax laws that let foreigners bankroll U.S. political causes through “dark pools.” This foreign cash—untouchable by direct campaign finance rules—shapes American policy, yet taxpayers footing the system’s bill don’t even know his name. It’s a loophole so big you could drive a Swiss bank vault through it.

    Read the whole thing.

  • Los Angeles Lost Track Of Billions In Homelessness Funding, Audit Finds.” Of course it did. It disappeared into lots of leftwing pockets.

    he report painted a grim picture of Los Angeles’ homeless program managed by Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA), which was established in 1993.

    “Repetitive information gaps, coupled with a lack of accurate and complete data and documentation, posed significant obstacles to this assessment,” the report states.

    “Insufficient financial accountability led to an inability to trace substantial funds allocated to the City Programs. Fragmented data systems across LAHSA, the City, and the County and inconsistent reporting formats made it challenging to verify spending and the number of beds or units reported by the City and LAHSA, track participant outcomes, and align financial data with performance metrics.”

    The report also cites a paucity of uniform data standards and real-time oversight, which limited the ability of the auditor to fully assess the true impact of homeless programs and raised concerns of resource misallocation.

    A&M found that key stakeholders failed to monitor homelessness programs, and that LAHSA was unable to identify relevant service provider contracts and expenses. It also found gaps in documentation.

    Of course there are gaps in documentation. That’s to hide the graft disappearing into leftwing pockets…

  • “Obama fixed healthcare so well that Americans borrowed $74 BILLION last year to receive medical care.”
  • Putin has a whole host of unreasonable demands for a ceasefire.
    • Crimea, Sevastopol, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk — these are regions of Russia. They are written into the constitution. This is a given fact,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. That amounts to one-fifth of Ukraine’s legitimate, internationally recognized pre-war territory. Putin demands that Ukraine permanently renounce any claim to these territories.
    • Ukraine must disarm itself of any NATO weapons. Of course, the top suppliers of the Ukrainian military are the United States with $69.7 billion worth of weapons systems and ammunition since the start of the war, Germany with $13.7 billion worth, the United Kingdom at $10.8 billion worth, Denmark at $8.1 billion worth, Sweden at $5.1 billion worth, Poland at $3.9 billion worth, France at $3.8 billion worth, and Canada at $2.8 billion worth. (All figures from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker, converted from Euros to dollars, and as of December 31, 2024.) All those countries are NATO members, and thus, under the Russian demands, Ukraine would have to give up all weapons systems received from those countries. This amounts to a unilateral disarming of the Ukrainian military, in exchange for a promise from a former KGB lieutenant colonel that he will not start the war again.
    • Putin also demanded that Ukraine cap its military size. Previously, Putin had demanded Ukraine limit the size of its army to 50,000 troops. As of January, the Ukrainian army is 880,000 troops, meaning that Russia wants the Ukrainian army to be reduced to less than 6 percent of its current size.
    • According to CNN, “Putin also suggested that Ukraine halt mobilization and any training of its troops, and that other nations stop supplying weapons to Kyiv during the ceasefire.” Halt any training of troops.
    • Putin insisted no foreign peacekeepers can enter Ukrainian territory.
    • Ukraine must abandon the idea of NATO membership. While the Trump administration had already made this concession before negotiations began, note that Putin is establishing a system where he gets a veto over which countries NATO can accept.
    • The U.S. must return six diplomatic compounds that Russia contends were seized illegally by the United States between 2016 and 2018.
    • All Western economic sanctions upon Russia are illegal and must be lifted.

    Hell no.

  • Ukraine hits Moscow with over 70 drones.
  • They also hit a Leningrad oil refinery, which is a long damn way from Ukraine.
  • City of Asheville, NC insists that it still gets to discriminate by race. I don’t think that’s going to work out well for them…
  • “Trump’s Department of Education launches “End DEI” portal to report DEI discrimination in schools.”
  • Dave Rubin and Peter Thiel discuss why mainstream academia may be more about securing funding than pursuing breakthroughs and how hyper-specialization and peer review contribute to a stagnant scientific enterprise that resists fundamental challenges.

    Bob [Robert B.] Laughlin, who’s a physics professor at Stanford, he got a Nobel Prize in Physics 1998. And he suffered from the extreme delusion that once he got a Nobel Prize in Physics, he’d be free to look at anything he wanted to. And the area of science that he went after was: he was convinced that most scientists, even at a place like Stanford, weren’t really doing very much work, weren’t doing very much science, were stealing money from taxpayers…This was a more this was a more taboo question, more taboo topic, than just going narrowly after climate science, or, you know, or any of these things. And obviously, he got promptly defunded and his grad students couldn’t get PhDs anymore. [My] sort of hermeneutic of suspicion is that if there’s a topic you can’t discuss, if there ideas you aren’t allowed to articulate, my shortcut is they’re just true.

  • Remember all the way back in 1986, when the New York Times blithely asserted as fact that evangelicals are “more easily led than other kinds of voters?” Well, just last we they asserted that “a majority of gun owners are white, conservative, male and from rural areas.” The first three are probably true, and the fourth definitely not, and no one who was even passingly familiar with gun culture would make that mistake…
  • Hundreds Of Civilians Massacred In Syria By Jihadist Government.” Try to contain your shock.

    Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz pinned the massacre on the country’s new leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, which was an offshoot of Al-Qaeda and was close to ISIS.

    “Al-Julani took off his [robe], put on a suit, and presented a moderate facade,” Katz wrote in a post on X that included a video of scores of people who had been massacred. “Now, he has removed the mask, revealing his true face: a jihadist terrorist from the Al-Qaeda school, committing atrocities against the Alawite civilian population.”

    Murdering members of other religions is never far from the average jihadi mind.

  • Israel made the right call in bombing the crap out of Syria’s military.

    Just a day after the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had seized Damascus, and Bashar Assad had fled to Moscow, Assad’s army crumbled into dust, with soldiers ripping off their uniforms so as to avoid being killed by vengeful, and now triumphant, rebels. Those soldiers left largely unattended huge quantities of weaponry. The IDF seized the occasion to improve its defensive posture against Syria. There was a brief window of just a few days, between the fall of Assad and the regime in Damascus stabilizing and taking control of those abandoned weapons, during which the IDF did two things. First, it moved Israeli soldiers into Syria, where they established two new military outposts, one on the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon, and one extending further into Syria from the pre-existing buffer zone separating Israeli and Syrian troops on the Golan. Now the IDF controls the commanding heights that extend into Syria; the Israelis have a clear unimpeded view of Damascus — now literally in their sights — far below.

    The second undertaking, which began just as soon as Assad had left for Russia, was the IDF’s systematic destruction of the Syrian army’s weaponry. The Israelis knew exactly where the weapons were located; they had long been preparing for a possible war against Assad, and had their target bank ready.

    The IDF announced on December 10 that its air force and navy had conducted over 480 strikes in Syria in the span of 48 hours, 350 of which targeted airfields, anti-aircraft batteries, missiles, drones, fighter jets, tanks, and weapon production sites, destroying between 70% and 80% of Syria’s strategic weapons. It also sank Syria’s navy. And there was nothing that Ahmed al-Sharaa and the men of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham could do about it. Now Israel has not only made itself much safer, having removed Syria as a viable military threat to the Jewish state, but also has “demilitarized” the Jihadists in Damascus.

    We have just seen that after al-Sharaa’s repeated promise that Syria’s minorities had nothing to worry about, decently, the jihadist “security services” — as they call themselves — entered Latakia to capture or kill Alawite members of Assad’s army. They were apparently ambushed by Alawite veterans of Assad’s army, and suffered a loss of 125 men. At that point, they decided to take revenge on the civilian population, killing more than 1,000 Alawite civilians — some reports claim up to 4,000 civilians have now been killed, and they also have been killing Christians — mostly Greek Orthodox but including some Melkites — because, of course, that’s what jihadists like to do. More than a thousand civilians, possibly as many as 4,000 according to some Alawite sources, have been killed in the space of two days.

  • “DHS Ends TSA Collective Bargaining After Bombshell Finding Of ‘More Full-Time Union Workers’ Than Airport Screeners.” It’s graft and featherbedding all the way down…
  • Taxpayer-funded Lobbying Org Pays Massive Salaries. Many employees of the Texas Association of School Boards are earning more than the governor of Texas.”

    The Texas Association of School Boards is a lobbying organization that is funded almost exclusively by Texas taxpayer dollars through school district dues.

    According to TASB’s most recent 990 form, at least 16 of its employees make more than the governor of Texas, who earns just over $153,000 each year.

    TASB paid a combined total of $927,644 to just two of its employees during fiscal year 2023.

    Executive Director Dan Troxell was paid $412,101 in direct compensation by TASB. Another $64,154 is listed as “other compensation from the organization and related organizations.”

    Similarly, TASB paid First Public Managing Director William Mastrodicasa $351,224 in direct reportable income. He was also paid an additional $100,165.

    Nice work, if you can get it…

  • Mess with the bull, get the horns. “Trump admin cancels $400 million in grants to Columbia University.” How’s that pro-Hamas antisemitism working out for you?
  • Belton Middle School Teacher Jailed for Sexually Assaulting a Student. Logan Demeny has been on leave from Belton ISD since allegations arose last month.”

  • Elementary School Teacher Charged for Having Child Sexual Assault Videos. Kody Caleb Smith, who taught PE at Bayshore Elementary in La Porte ISD, admitted he downloaded and viewed around 200 videos of young children being sexually assaulted.”
  • Holy crap this is a crazy, disturbing crime store, of a man who was imprisoned in his home for 20 years.
  • “US House Members Push for Ban on Student Visas for Chinese Nationals.” “U.S. Rep. Riley Moore (R-WV) is spearheading the push to secure higher education institutions against espionage and intellectual theft.” I’m sure universities will panic over having to give up all that sweet commie dough…
  • X Takes Down Network Of Chinese Accounts Amplifying NYT Attacks On Dissident Arts Group. The accounts, which exhibited inauthentic activity, had been used to boost articles published by The New York Times that targeted a religious group persecuted in China. One of the articles, a Chinese-language version of an attack piece on Shen Yun Performing Arts, was boosted so much it became the most shared New York Times article on X in more than a year, according to data from BuzzSumo, a social media analytics tool.” The question is, why was the NYT so eager to carry the CCP’s water attacking Falun Gong?
  • InfoWars Reporter ‘Brutally Murdered’ Outside Austin Residence.” “InfoWars reporter Jamie White has died in what host Alex Jones says was a ‘brutal murder’ which occurred around midnight outside of his Austin apartment.” This is the ninth murder in Austin this year.
  • Speaking of deaths in Austin, there was a 17 vehicle crash caused by a drunk driver that left five people dead.
  • “Texas Awards SpaceX Over $17 Million Grant for Semiconductor R&D.” My opposition to the CHIPS Act has been noted before, but this may be already allocated money that the state is contractually obligated to award. Why would SpaceX need semiconductor research? My guess would be for advances in space radiation hardened (“rad hard”) chips. This was traditionally property of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) rather than silicon-based chips. GaAs chips are generally orders of magnitude more radiation resistant than consumer grade chips, but GaAs is extremely brittle and difficult to work with, so much so that 6″ (150mm) wafers are the largest size for GaAs, and there still a number of older 4″ (100m) fab lines running GaAs out there. GaAs is such a pain that a lot of different substrates have been explored over the years, but I’m not sure any match GaAs’ extreme rad hard properties.
  • The latest “smishing” scam involves sending text messages asking for payment for unpaid road tolls.
  • Feel good news of the day: “Man sets himself on fire at South Carolina Tesla charging stations while trying to torch them with Molotov cocktails.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Teacher Wins in Court After Being Fired for Refusing to Use Preferred Pronouns.”
  • “Starbucks manager says he was fired for being heterosexual.”
  • During a tornado warning, a Florida news station broadcasting the warning is hit by a tornado.
  • Critical Drinker didn’t care for Micky 17. “We’ll just make it dumb as fuck and hammer home the messaging with as much subtlety as a dump truck full of retarded sledgehammers.”
  • A look at the stylistic innovation of The Raid: Redemption.
  • Video of a guy who lives in a house in the wilderness of Vermont, and all he does is bake bread.
  • “Comes with your own dark portal to switch places with your evil universe twin.”
  • “Liberals Defeat Nazis By Painting Swastikas Everywhere And Torching Immigrant Businesses.”
  • Tucker Interviews Saruman To Talk About Rohan’s Warmongering.”
  • “Teslas Updated With Self-Defense Mode Where They Transform Into Anthropomorphic Battle Robots.”
  • “Doctor Says He’ll Be Able To Make Better Diagnosis Once He Reviews Scan Of Your Insurance Benefits.”
  • “ISIS Claims Responsibility For Meghan Markle Netflix Show.” Well, they do love their bombs…
  • Dog super excited to get his new wheelchair, and man, pollen seems to have come early this year:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

  • I’m between jobs again. Feel free to hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    TSMC Bids To Take Over Intel Fabs

    Wednesday, March 12th, 2025

    I know that any time I talk about semiconductors, a significant percentage of my readership’s eyes glaze over, but this is Big Freaking News.

    Intel shares rose 6% in premarket trading after Reuters reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, had approached US chip designers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom about taking stakes in a joint venture that would operate the struggling chipmaker’s factories.

    Four sources told Reuters that the Taiwanese chipmaking giant would run Intel’s foundry division under the new proposal, producing chips tailored to customer requirements but not owning more than 50%. The sources added that Qualcomm has also been approached about the venture.

    For those unfamiliar with the semiconductor space, that’s a Murderers Row of heavyweights, including the top three semiconductor companies by market cap:

  • TSMC is far and away the largest chip foundry (a company that builds chips for other companies, but doesn’t design its own chips) in the world, and the one with a clear technological lead over everyone else. TSMC has the third largest market cap of any semiconductor company.
  • Broadcom is the second-largest semiconductor company in the world by market cap, and they have their fingers in a lot of different pies: networking, wireless, storage, you name it. They’re generally considered a fabless chip designer, but the company is such a weird amalgamation of other companies (what we call Broadcom used to be Avago until they acquired Broadcom in 2016) that they might still have a lower end fab or two lurking somewhere in the company. They also use TSMC as a foundry, though I’m not sure how extensively. They’ve also recently made a big move into software, acquiring CA Associates and VMWare, among others.
  • Nvidia is a fabless chip designer (the sort of company that contracts with foundries to fab their chips) that went heavily into high end GPUs (the chips that render video for your PC, in Nvidia’s case geared toward high end games and other highly demanding tasks), then crypto-mining chips, and more recently into chips geared for AI applications, all very lucrative market segments, which has made Nvidia not only first among semiconductor market cap, but among the largest companies by market cap in the world (along with Apple and Microsoft). Nvidia has their chips fabricated by TSMC, as well as some by Samsung and GlobalFoundries, which was spun off from…
  • Advanced Micro Devices, which used to be an Integrated Device Manufacturer (or IDM, a company designs their own chips and builds them in their own fabs) creating Intel-compatible CPUs, but eventually spun off their fabrication plants as GlobalFoundries because they couldn’t keep up with Intel’s capital spending. AMD also has some of their highest end chips fabricated by TSMC. If AMD were to help take over Intel, it would be an extremely ironic ending to a longtime rivalry.
  • Qualcomm is a lot like Broadcom: A mostly fabless design house with its fingers in lots of different pies, and they’re about the sixth largest semiconductor company by market cap. Broadcom tried to acquire Qualcomm in 2017-18 and was blocked by the Trump45 administration.
  • Intel is an IDM, and for decades was the undisputed “chipzilla” of the semiconductor world. Intel’s CPUs were the dominant processor for the vast majority of the last 40 years and a huge ingredient for helping create the PC revolution. Intel used to be the technology process leader as well, but somewhere along the way they screwed up their sub-10nm process nodes, allowing TSMC to take the process technology crown. Indeed, they screwed up so badly that they’ve been forced to have TSMC fab some of its highest end chips. Despite having a vast number of fabs, Intel’s market cap has slipped down to 16th among semiconductor companies.
  • Back to the piece:

    The sources noted that the Trump administration is exploring ways to revive Intel and strengthen US manufacturing under the ‘America First’ agenda. They added that TSMC’s joint venture pitch to chip designers took place before the company, alongside President Trump, announced plans last month to invest $100 billion in semiconductor manufacturing in the US, building on its existing $65 billion investment in its Phoenix, Arizona, factories.

    Any deal between TSMC and Intel would be subjected to approval from the Trump administration.

    If the Trump Administration’s goal is to increase available sub-10nm wafer starts (and it should be) and maintain American control of Intel’s fabs, then this proposal is a win-win. Intel’s fabs plus TSMC’s tech would create a foundry powerhouse. It wouldn’t happen overnight (nothing in semiconductors happens overnight), but probably in 12-24 months, depending on how quickly the new entity can acquire the necessary pieces of equipment to upgrade Intel’s fabs to thee new tech (I’m guessing that the availability of ASML steppers will, as usual, be the gating factor). And all this without the tens of billions in taxpayer subsidies for the CHIPS Act.

    If this goes through, it would have mostly winners, with a few losers:

    Winners

  • Every company that’s part of the deal. TSMC gets to radically expand production capacity without spending $20 billion+ to build a new fab. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Qualcomm gain a lot more capacity for expanding production of their high end chips. Ditto for Apple (who’s not part of the deal, but who is TSMC’s biggest customer and a big demand driver for cutting edge fab capacity) and every other consumer of sub-10nm chips.
  • AMD additionally gets the egoboo of partially taking over its longtime hated rival and confirming it’s crown as the x86/x64 chip manufacturer of choice. Plus their then-risky decision to spin off GlobalFoundries looks like a genius move in hindsight.
  • The Trump Administration, which gets to take credit for vastly increasing American Foundry capacity at zero additional taxpayer expense and keeps Intel under American control.
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML, Applied Materials, LAM Research, Tokyo Electron and KLA (short term). It’s likely most or all of those companies (along with smaller players like Axcelis and Teradyne) will receive a bump in extra sales from leveling up Intel’s fabs to run TSMC’s process.
  • American chip startups: With so much high end capacity becoming available, existing and potential chip startups are going to look like more attractive investment capital opportunities.
  • ARM Holdings: ARM doesn’t make chips, they’re an IP design house that licenses their functional chip blocks to other chip designers. Just about every foundry and IDM is a licensee (yes, including Intel and TSMC), so unleashing more chip designs will almost certainly result in more royalties for ARM. (Nvidia tried to buy ARM in 2020, and regulators quashed that idea good and hard.)
  • Intel investors, who will either get a big lump-sum payment or shares in the new, probably far more profitable company (depending on how the buyout is structured).
  • Even Intel wins long-term by unleashing existing fab capacity to take on new business not tied to its faltering CPU manufacturing model. And actually, with TSMC’s process, Intel has a chance to recover in the CPU space as well.
  • Losers

  • Samsung: Along with TSMC and Intel, Samsung (which has both IDM and foundry components) has some of the best sub-10nm process tech in the world. They gain a whole lot of unleashed competition and stand on the outside looking in.
  • Intel‘s dreams of reclaiming their spot at the top of the heap, and suffering the indignity of being partially owned by AMD. How the mighty have fallen.
  • Every Chinese fab, which goes from “very far behind” to “even further behind.”
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers (long term): They better enjoy the out-of-band upgrade money from retrofitting Intel’s fabs, as it will likely mean a significant delay in anyone building a new cutting edge wafer fab for quite a while. And having two of their biggest customers team up is probably going to put them under a lot of downward pricing pressure.
  • GlobalFoundries (and other trailing edge foundries) might lose some business, but there’s very little overlap between Intel/TSMC cutting edge processes and GlobalFoundries trailing-edge fabs. Ditto UMC.
  • Are there anti-trust concerns with such a heavy accumulation of cutting edge process technology? Oh yeah. Big time. But almost all of those concerns were already there in some form or another thanks to the interconnected “cooperation” nature of the industry. All those companies going in with TSMC were already getting chips fabbed by TSMC. Samsung could try to claim that the deal would result in TSMC having a de-facto monopoly on sub-10nm foundry business, but it wouldn’t start with one, and that business isn’t the whole of foundry business (though it is the most profitable part), much less semiconductors as a whole.

    Given that this would go a long way toward achieving Trump’s goal of increasing cutting edge fab capacity in America, I would imagine that the Trump47 administration could very well be persuaded to let this deal go through.

    ASML Exits, China Screwed

    Thursday, December 26th, 2024

    I’ve previously talked about China’s difficulties in catching up to the west in semiconductor manufacturing here, here, and here, among other places. To summarize: Western nations have an advanced, highly interconnected semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem that China doesn’t have the technical expertise to replicate. In particular, China has nothing like ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (AKA a “stepper”) necessary to build the most advanced chips with the smallest feature geometries.

    Here’s a piece with ASML’s CEO talking about just how far China is behind.

    Though advancements that SMIC and Huawei have made in the semiconductor sector in recent years are pretty impressive, the companies are 10 to 15 years behind industry giants like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, said Christophe Fouquet, chief executive of toolmaker ASML. It’s well known that even with the best-in-class DUV tools, Chinese fab SMIC will be unable to match TSMC’s process technologies cost-effectively. This is because Chinese companies cannot access leading-edge EUV lithography tools.

    “By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West,” said Christophe Fouquet in an interview with NRC (machine translated). “That really has an effect.”

    ASML has never shipped its EUV tools to China due to the Wassenaar Arrangement, despite SMIC’s reported order for one EUV machine. The details remain unclear, but ASML did not deliver the machine to the Chinese foundry due to US sanctions. However, ASML kept shipping advanced DUV lithography tools, such as the Twinscan NXT:2000i, which are capable of producing chips on 5nm and 7nm-class process technologies.

    As a result, SMIC has been producing chips for Huawei using its 1st-generation and 2nd-generation 7nm-class process technology for years now. This has certainly helped the Chinese high-tech giants weather U.S. government sanctions.

    Having understood that EUV tools are not coming to China, Huawei and its partners have explored extreme ultraviolet lithography themselves with the aim of building their own lithography chipmaking tools and ecosystem, which will take 10 – 15 years at best. For reference, it has taken over 20 years for ASML and its partners from foundational work to complete commercial machines to build the EUV ecosystem.

    China thought it had found a way out of the western ban on high end lithography machines. Turns out: Not so much.

  • “In the past two years, China has spent a staggering 8 billion euros to procure fewer than 120 Advanced immersion DUV lithography machines from Dutch company ASML.” DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) was the generation of machines before EUV, and can’t effectively pattern features of less than 10nm.
  • “On the surface this seemed like a bold and extravagant move. However, as of September 7th, the reality has turned into a bitter irony. Maintenance and upgrades for these machines are now completely restricted. In other words, starting next year these state-of-the-art [not quite – LP] lithography machines could become little more than scrap. To make matters worse, even repairs for older equipment are off the table.”
  • “Lithography machines are the backbone of semiconductor manufacturing, etching intricate circuits onto silicon wafers. Without proper maintenance and upgrades, these machines, worth tens of millions of euros each, will gradually deteriorate into expensive junk. Producing advanced chips smaller than 14 nanometers will become nearly impossible. Yield rates will plummet and costs will skyrocket.”
  • “Even TSMC, a global benchmark, requires ASML engineers to be stationed on site for regular recalibrations every 3 to 6 months. Earlier this year, an earthquake in Taiwan caused TSMC’s lithography operations to halt, and it took a month of recalibrations to resume lithography.” Requalification is indeed a huge pain in the ass.
  • “Machine maintenance depends on ASML proprietary components, software and technical support. Hiring a few engineers, or even the CEO of ASML, won’t solve the fundamental complexities of this highly specialized system. China’s attempts to rely on sheer manpower to bridge this gap are wishful thinking.”
  • “Thinking a few engineers could crack this technology is simply laughable. Lithography machines are just the tip of the iceberg in the complex semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.”
  • “China owns nearly 1,400 ASML lithography machines. With Western restrictions on maintenance spare parts and engineering services, these multi-million euro machines have been reduced to a rob Peter to pay Paul situation keeping them operational for just one more day at a time. Chip production is bound to shrink, creating a vicious cycle.”
  • “New sanctions implemented in September have blocked sales of models like the NXT1970i, shutting down access to both hardware and technology. At best, China’s capabilities remain stuck at the level of ASML’s older NXT 1470 machines, which date back to the early 2000s.”
  • “China’s so-called domestic lithography machines are limited to 65 nanometer dry DUV technology, with some reports claiming they can reach 55 nanometer. However, this is equivalent to ASML 2006-era technology, putting China 18 years behind. Worse, key components for these domestic machines still rely on suppliers from Japan and Germany.”
  • “China’s domestic lithography machines are largely a symbolic effort, more about saving face than actual technological advancement.”
  • There’s no way China can catch up to ASML in EUV lithography, and no way they can eliminate their deep dependence on western semiconductor manufacturing technology.
  • “Cutting edge EUV systems have been banned from China since 2019. Last June, high-end immersion DUV machines were added to the list. Now even older models like the NXT 1970i and 1980i can’t be sold or upgraded. China’s ambitions have been crushed, reducing it to square one.”
  • “This February, the Dutch Minister of Trade openly stated that China uses foreign high tech knowledge to advance its military capabilities, and ASML tools could produce sophisticated weapons. Handing over lithography machines to China is akin to arming an adversary, a move unacceptable on any strategic level.”
  • Without western technology, China’s desire for a technologically advanced semiconductor industry are dead in the water.
  • “The myth of China’s technological rise is unraveling and heading toward decline.”
  • When you buy a piece of high-end semiconductor equipment, you’re not just buying the machine, you’re buying the knowledgebase of deep technical expertise of both the on-site technical staff, as well as the process wizards back in Eindhoven, Santa Clara and Tokyo. There are inumerable parameters that need to be just right, and you need to know how to tweak them if the yield goes south. Without that expertise to guide you, the high end machines quickly become worthless.

    I can imagine President Trump offering China a grand bargain, in which they stop stealing western technology, stop committing genocide against the Uighers, stop clashing with Philippine ships in the South China Sea, meet its treaty obligations regarding Hong Kong, and let international agencies inspects its high level bioweapon labs in exchange for easing semiconductor sanctions.

    I doubt China would take such a deal, as it would be too humiliating for Xi to stand. But I can imagine Trump making it…

    LinkSwarm For December 13, 2024

    Friday, December 20th, 2024

    Because I had to get out my book catalog last week, I’ve been as busy as Kathleen Kennedy on Ruin Star Wars Day, so this is another two-weeks crammed into one LinkSwarm. It’s just been a packed two weeks, with so many major stories breaking up not going to tease them up here, so let’s jump right in.

  • 21 Soros-linked district attorneys replaced since 2022 by voters seeking ‘tough-on-crime’ policies.”

    A new report has revealed that 21 George Soros-linked district attorneys across the United States have been replaced by “tough-on-crime” prosecutors. The report also noted that four have left office, either through recall efforts or other means.

    Among those listed by the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund were former Portland District Attorney Mike Schmidt, who lost a May election to Democrat challenger Nathan Vasquez, Western Judicial Circuit District Attorney Deborah Gonzalez, who lost her reelection bid to Kalki Yalamanchili, and Kim Foxx, the former Cook County State’s Attorney who in 2023 announced that she would not seek reelection.

    For those who were removed from office, there is Hinds County District Attorney Jody Owens, who in November was indicted on federal bribery charges, and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, who was recalled last month after serving just 18 months in office, per The National News Desk.

    Replacements also noted by the report were Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon, who lost to challenger Nathan Hochman in last month’s election, and former Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby, who lost the 2022 Democratic primary election to Ivan Bates. Since her election loss, Mosby has been found guilty of one count of mortgage fraud.

    All of them need to go.

  • Speaking of Soros tools: Subway Samaritan Daniel penny found not guilty on all charges. Just like Kyle Rittenhouse, he never should have been charged in the first place. Soros tool Alvin Bragg needs to be impeached and removed from office.
  • Christopher Wray steps down as FBI head. This shouldn’t keep the Trump Administration from prosecuting for his manifest interference in the political process.
  • More Democratic Party fundraising fraud. “ActBlue, the massive online fund-raising platform for liberal causes, has informed Congress it did not automatically block donations made with foreign-bought gift cards until recently.” Almost like the entire party is a giant money laundering scam…
  • Busted. “Georgia Court Removes Fani Willis from Trump Case over Relationship with Special Prosecutor.”

    An appellate court removed Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis (D) from the racketeering case against President-elect Donald Trump over her romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade.

    Georgia’s court of appeals ruled Thursday that Willis will be removed from the case because of the appearance of misconduct surrounding her relationship with Wade, but did not throw out the case all together.

    “While we recognize that an appearance of impropriety is generally not enough to support disqualification, this is the rare case in which disqualification is mandated and no other remedy will suffice to restore public confidence in the integrity of these proceedings,” the three judge panel ruled.

    Left unstated is that her lawfare attack on Trump was both illegal and unconstitutional.

  • Law enforcement arrested and charged a suspect on Monday in connection with the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, which occurred in New York City on Wednesday outside a Manhattan hotel. Luigi Mangione, 26, of Towson, Md., was stopped by auth0rities in Altoona, Pa., on Monday. The detained suspect had a handwritten manifesto that criticized the health care industry.
  • Biden’s Department of Education spent $1 billion to infect schools with DEI, because of course they did.
  • He also handed Iran access to $10 billion, because promoting terrorism, plotting to destroy Israel, and trying to build nuclear weapons are activities that Democrats seem eager to reward.
  • Winning. “ABC News and anchor George Stephanopoulos have reached a settlement in a defamation suit brought by President-elect Donald Trump, which requires the network to apologize, contribute $15 million to a ‘Presidential foundation and museum to be established by or for Plaintiff,’ and pay Trump’s legal team $1 million.”
  • Believe it or not, that wasn’t the biggest settlement ABC owner Disney agreed to pay out this month. They also agreed to pay $233 million to settle a minimum wage lawsuit.
  • How DeSantis and Abbott bussing illegal aliens to blue sanctuary cities changed the game.

    As Saul Alinsky once said, make your enemies live up to their words.

  • Let the Democratic Party Civil War commence.

    The battle lines are now drawn between West Coast liberals, Bernie Sanders-socialists and moderate technocrats in the Midwest, who insist the party has completely lost touch with the average American voter.

    But first, there is one thing that all sides seemingly agree on: The current political establishment must be chased out of national politics for good. A reckoning is coming.

    ‘The people that are responsible for this s**tshow are the Obama people. They’re just grifters,’ a well-connected Democratic donor exclusively told Daily Mail. He singled out Jen O’Malley Dillon, who went from Biden 2024 campaign chair to serve in the same role for Harris’s camp, and David Plouffe, an ex-Obama 2008 campaign manager turned top Kamala adviser.

  • “Trump sues Des Moines Register, pollster for ‘brazen election interference’ over faulty polling in presidential race.” I think it’s very unlikely that Trump will win this lawsuit, thanks to First Amendment protections and the “absence of malice standard.” Plus pollster Ann Selzer can always just claim “I just sucked at my job.” She retired after the election.
  • After Assad fell, Israel pounded the snot out of his remaining military assets.

    Israel pounded Syrian army bases on Tuesday in strikes it says aim to keep weapons from falling into hostile hands, but denied its forces had advanced into Syria, toward Damascus, beyond a buffer zone at the border.

    Regional security sources and officers within the now-fallen Syrian army who spoke to Reuters described Tuesday morning’s airstrikes as the heaviest yet, hitting military installations and airbases across Syria, destroying dozens of helicopters and jets, as well as Republican Guard assets in and around Damascus.

    The rough tally of 200 raids overnight had left nothing of the Syrian army’s assets, said the sources.

    The Israeli Air Force has carried out over 300 airstrikes in Syria since the collapse of the regime, destroying advanced weapons and other capabilities.

    Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel in Damascus’s Barzeh area completely destroyed a defense ministry research center, AFP correspondents reported on Tuesday. Western countries including the United States struck the facility in 2018, saying it was related to Syria’s “chemical weapons infrastructure.”

    Plus they sunk the entire Syrian navy.

  • Speaking of pounding the snot out of things:

  • Videos of Russia buggering out of Syria.
  • Ukraine hit a solid rocket propellant plant in Russia.
  • “Palantir CEO Alex Karp Eviscerates Democrats: Voters ‘Do Not Want To Hear Your Woke Pagan Ideology.'”

    Alex Karp, the co-founder and CEO of Palantir, said late last week that Democrats lost the 2024 election because they did not understand the fundamental human desire to feel safe.

    Karp made the remarks during a panel discussion at the Reagan National Defense Forum while talking about what Americans expect out of the U.S. government.

    “Americans are the most loving, God-fearing, fair, least discriminatory people on the planet,” he said. “They want to know that if you’re waking up and thinking about harming American citizens, or if American citizens are taken hostage and kept in dungeons, or if you’re a foreign power sending fentanyl to poison our people, something really bad is going to happen to you and your friends and your cousins, and your bank account and your mistress, and whoever was involved.”

    He continued, “When Americans are spending a trillion dollars on ‘defense,’ what I want and what I think my peers want is: why are these people keeping our citizens as hostages, torturing our people, attacking our allies, maligning us in what was once called the United Nations — basically a discriminatory institution against anything good? We need to stand up and those people need to be scared.”

    He said that it was critical for the U.S. to dominate because “we have the best products in the world, and we can not have parity.”

    “Our adversaries do not have our moral compunction,” he said. “If it is even, they will take advantage of our niceness, our kindness, our desire to be at home in Nebraska and New Hampshire or wherever we live, in our peaceful environments.”

    “They need to wake up scared, and go to bed scared, and if you give that to the American people, the American people will go back and say — and honestly, I probably shouldn’t say this, this is why I thought the Democrats were going to lose the election, and why they did, because people want to live in peace,” he continued. “They want to go home. They do not want to hear your woke pagan ideology. They want to know they’re safe. And safe means the other person is scared. That’s how you make someone safe.”

  • Democrats are now, finally, pissed at Obama. “There are people there are people who are now multi-millionaires as a result of the Harris campaign, and we know exactly who they are. And I just want to say that half a billion dollars in advertising went to just four well-heeled Democratic firms. This whole thing is deeply incestuous.”
  • China cracks down on economists telling the truth about how much their economy sucks rather than parroting Beijing’s approved lies.
  • “Ozy Media Founder Carlos Watson Sentenced To Hefty Prison Term For Defrauding Investors. [He] was sentenced to 116 months, or nearly ten years, in prison for conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in an unusual case that briefly captivated the media world.”
  • Crystal Mangum admits to fabricating 2006 Duke lacrosse scandal accusations.” And by “scandal” they mean “false accusations of rape.” So when can we expect apologies from Nancy Grace and Amanda Marcotte? (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
  • “Biden’s EPA just made the first-ever “climate change” related arrest.”
  • More of that voting fraud Democrats swear doesn’t exist. “2020 Carrollton Mayoral Candidate Admits to Mail Ballot Fraud. Zul Mohamed pleaded guilty Monday to 109 voter fraud felonies.”
  • “After Donald Trump flipped his county for the first time in a century, longtime Democratic Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina has announced he is switching parties to the Republicans saying that “the [Democratic] party left me, and the people of South Texas behind.”
  • Three soldiers arrested for smuggling illegal aliens into the country.

    Three U.S. Army soldiers have been arrested in Texas on criminal charges relating to smuggling illegal aliens.

    The three soldiers were based at Fort Cavazos, which is near Killeen in Central Texas.

    Fort Cavazos is The Fort Formerly Known As Fort Hood. I might have been a little more worked up over the name change if Hood hadn’t been such a shitty general.

    U.S. Border Patrol agents made an initial traffic stop of a suspicious vehicle in the city of Presidio, located in West Texas on the Rio Grande. As an agent approached the vehicle’s passenger side, the driver sped away—hitting a second Border Patrol vehicle and injuring the agent inside.

    The vehicle was eventually stopped by local law enforcement officers who detained four individuals in the car. Three were illegal aliens, and one was identified as U.S. Army soldier Emilio Mendoza Lopez.

    The driver of the vehicle was reported as being another soldier named Angel Palma, who fled on foot from the vehicle but was located in Odessa a day later.

    Presidio is nearly 500 miles away from where the soldiers were stationed.

    “Mendoza Lopez and Palma allegedly traveled from Fort Cavazos to Presidio for the purpose of picking up and transporting undocumented noncitizens,” announced the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Texas. “A third individual, Enrique Jauregui, is alleged to be the recruiter and facilitator of the human smuggling conspiracy.”

  • Tren De Aragua Gun Runner Released by Biden Admin Charged in Texas Capital Murder.” Democrats sure love murderous gang members… (Hat tip: Issues and Insights.)
  • Laredo Educator Arrested for Production of Child Pornography. Carlos Jobany Castaneda Lechuga was a lecturer at Texas A&M International University, but has since been removed from the staff directory.”
  • Three More Texas Teachers Nabbed for Child Porn.”

    Three Texas teachers made news last week over charges of child pornography—also known as child sexual abuse material, as the images and videos depict sex crimes being committed against minors.

    The educators worked in Dallas, Leander, and Wall Independent School Districts. Two of the three taught band.

    On December 13, Dallas Police arrested Sean Turner, 34, and charged him with possession of pornography featuring a child younger than 10 years old—a first-degree felony.

    Snip.

    Retired principal Curtis John Locklear was arrested December 12 and charged with felony possession of child porn.

    Locklear was arrested by the Montgomery County Precinct 3 Constable’s Office working with the Houston-area Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC) task force.

    Snip.

    Also on December 12, a federal judge sentenced Joshua Carroll to 30 years in prison for possessing and producing child porn.

    Carroll was an assistant band director in Wall ISD from January 2022 until his crimes were discovered earlier this year.

  • Texas Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw got dinged by the Internet for insider trading. So then Crenshaw attacked the Internet. It didn’t go well for him.
  • Phllly man awarded $41 million for overturned murder conviction is back in jail for murder.
  • AOC loses an election to be the ranking member of the Oversight and Accountability Committee to 74-year-old Gerry Connolly. “Connolly is undergoing chemotherapy and immunotherapy for esophagus cancer.”
  • In addition to being a brutal dictator, Bashar Assad was also a drug pusher.
  • Google unveils a newer, more powerful quantum chip.

    Google on Monday introduced a new chip called Willow, which solved in five minutes a computing problem that would take a classical computer more time than the history of the universe.

    Tech companies are chasing quantum computing in hopes of developing systems that perform at speeds far faster than traditional silicon-based computers.
    The building blocks of quantum computers, called “qubits”, while being fast, are error-prone, making it hard to ensure quantum computers are reliable and commercially viable.

    The more qubits used in quantum computing, the more errors typically occur. But Google said on Monday it found a way to string together qubits in the Willow chip so that error rates decline as the number of qubits rise, adding that it can also correct errors in real time.

    My understanding of how quantum computers work is limited to popular explanations, but D-Wave is evidently still in business, so maybe they work?

  • It’s been a long time since I found Louis Black funny, but this rant on the Democrats post-election reactions is pretty good.
  • MSNBC viewers haven’t returned.

  • City in Florida tries to fine man over $1 million for 10 year old code violation fines against the previous owner for a home the new owner bought on foreclosure.
  • Company YesMadam surveys employees to see how stressed they feel…then lays off employees feeling stressed. Then reveals the whole thing was a publicity stunt.

  • Assad had a really shitty survival bunker. Plus a garage of luxury cars.
  • Jordan Peterson Flees “Totalitarian Hellhole” Canada For U.S. Due To Censorship, Taxes.” Welcome to the land of the free and the home of the brave.
  • How Now, Woke Longhorn? An Open Letter to University of Texas President Jay Hartzell.”
  • “Trump announces $100 BILLION investment to create 100,000 US jobs from Japanese company Softbank.”
  • Add Big Lots to the list of retail chains that died thanks to the Biden Recession. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Broadcom hit $1 trillion in market cap this week.
  • Jaguar is going all in on woke thanks to new CEO Adrian Mardell, and the infection is spreading to fellow Tata subsidiary Land Rover.
  • First reaction to Mufasa: The Lion King: “Profoundly awful.”
  • The trailer for James Gunn’s Superman dropped. I’ve never seen a Superman film in theaters, and this will not be getting me in. But you’ve got to give Gunn credit for thinking way outside the box and including Krypto the Superdog and Hawkman, two characters that absolutely no one in the greater viewing public was clamoring for.

  • Don McMillan has cracked the Hallmark Christmas movie code.
  • Heh:

  • “Now Now, Let’s Not Be So Hasty To Find And Assassinate Everyone Responsible For The Healthcare Crisis,’ Says Nervous Obama.”
  • “Assassin Luigi Mangione Takes Lead In 2028 Democratic Primary Polls.”
  • “Members Of Congress Explain They Need Pay Raises To Keep Up With The Inflation They Caused.”
  • “Biden Calls For New Gun Laws He Can Pardon His Son For Breaking.”
  • “Running Low On Ideas, God Makes Oklahoma.”
  • “Unclear If Pianist Total Beginner Or Professional Jazz Player.”
  • In you go:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)