FreedomWorks, which helped insurgent Ted Cruz snatch the GOP nod for U.S. Senate from Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, said Monday it will put its muscle behind toppling Texas House Speaker Joe Straus of San Antonio from his leadership post.
Armey’s one sharp cookie, and he plays hardball. Conservatives came up short when they challenged the moderate Straus before last session, but the incoming Texas House looks to be more conservative, and a lot of Straus’s committee chairs lost in the primary. But Straus is no pushover, and I imagine he still sits on a big pile of legislative IOUs, as well as lobbyist juice and gambling money. Will a disgruntled David Dewhurst throw his still-considerably clout behind his counterpart in the House?
Random swarm of interesting links for your amusement and edification:
Just in case you didn’t notice, in Obama’s interview with Univision (where he faced much tougher questions that from America’s lapdog media), Obama pretty much admitted that he failed, because “you can’t change Washington from the inside.” Really? I’m sure that platform would have gotten you a lot of votes in 2008.
Across the paper’s many departments, though, so many share a kind of political and cultural progressivism — for lack of a better term — that this worldview virtually bleeds through the fabric of The Times.
As a result, developments like the Occupy movement and gay marriage seem almost to erupt in The Times, overloved and undermanaged, more like causes than news subjects.
Can Patterson take Dewhurst? Hard to say. The Senate race defeat proved he’s vulnerable when faced with the right candidate, but Dewhurst will start off with a considerable fundraising advantage, and big donors may be more fearful of backing Patterson knowing that Dewhurst will control the state legislative agenda for the next two years. But if Dewhurst makes the same mistakes he did in the Senate race, and the Tea Party backs Patterson as strongly as they did Cruz, then yes, Dewhurst could lose. But neither of those is a given.
The most important Texas political race is obviously the Texas Senate race. Barring any unforeseen catastrophe, I fully expect Ted Cruz to soundly thump Paul Sadler in November.
The second most important Texas race is for the 23rd Congressional District, where Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco eked out the second closest win over a Democratic congressional incumbent in 2010, beating Ciro Rodriguez by a little over 7,000 votes. Rep. Blake Farenthold’s win over Solomon Ortiz in the 27th congressional district was the closest Texas CD race that year, decided by a mere 799 votes, but the 27th was made considerably more Republican in redistricting, going from voting for Obama by 53% of the vote to a mere 40% of the vote under the new district lines.
The legislature was not able to reenforce Canseco’s sprawling district to nearly the same extent, and it was only made slightly more Republican, going from a 51% Obama district to a 50% Obama district. That, plus the power of incumbency and $1 million cash on hand (as of June 30) give Canseco a real fighting chance to hold the seat. His Democratic opponent, Pete Gallego, spent all his money to beat Rodriguez in the runoff, but this is still the only decent shot Texas Democrats have to defeat a incumbent Republican congressman this year, so expect the usual big Democratic donors (unions and trial lawyers) to come to his rescue.
Heritage ranks Canseco a solid (if not exceptional) conservative at 72%, higher than the (lamentably low) Republican House average of 65%, but 50 points better than even the best Texas Democratic representative (Henry Cuellar).
If you were looking for a Texas congressional race where your donations might help Republicans hold a tough seat, this is the one.
The election, more than ever, is about the size of government. Obama wants an ever-larger, ever more powerful federal government, while Romney-Ryan want to reign it in. Despite Romney having a reputation as a bit of a squish, the pick shows he’s serious about reigning in runaway government. And it doesn’t detract from the debate over Obama’s horrible handling of the economy: Runaway government spending (and the uncertainty it engenders) is the largest single factor holding back the economy.
As an observant Catholic, Ryan sharpens the debate on the Obama Administration’s War on Catholics. The fervor with which Democrats pursued codifying taxpayer-funded abortion (no matter how many House seats it cost them) and the unwavering refusal to allow Catholic and other pro-life entities to opt out from providing insurance coverage of abortion suggests that it was one of the central driving goals of passing ObamaCare. Increasingly it appears that yes, that is the hill liberals want to die on. We should let them, and make sure that devout Catholics know the contempt the liberal establishment holds for both them and their beliefs.
Ryan Puts Wisconsin Further in Play. Scott Walker’s budget successes, and the abysmal serial failure of the Wisconsin recall elections prove that this once solidly Democratic state has been trending increasingly purple. By naming favorite son Ryan as his VP pick, Romney has singled he’s going to put up a real fight there. Romney can win elsewhere (Nevada and Iowa, for example) and still win 270 electoral votes; I don’t see any realistic path to victory for Obama if he loses there.
The echos from Ted Cruz’s victory over Dewhurst are still echoing not only around the state, but the nation as well. Here’s just a small sampling of the most important reactions:
“It’s difficult to overstate the achievement of Cruz beating Dewhurst,” said Democratic strategist Harold Cook of Austin. “That Cruz won amplifies the extent to which tea partiers are at war with establishment Republicans, and at the moment, winning it.”
This bland “Hispanics are our future” thumbsucker does have one standout line that deserves repeating: Cruz’s victory demonstrated that “Texas Republicans are more interested in conservative ideals than in ethnicity.”
A Democratic analyst’s look at Cruz’s victory. Don’t agree with it 100%, but it’s focused on technical analysis and free of liberal bile (unlike the column of certain former Texas Agricultural Commissioner I’m not linking to).
Thanks to his runoff victory Tuesday, Ted Cruz is now a political figure with clout, and, as this video shows, he’s already making the case for controlling spending and limited government to a national audience:
There’s a lot to digest and discuss about Ted Cruz’s victory over David Dewhurst, and I’m sure I’ll have more tomorrow. But here are a few myths that Cruz’s victory laid to rest tonight.
Hispanics can’t win statewide Republican primaries in Texas. This one was born in Victor Carrillo’s defeat in the 2010 Railroad Commissioner’s race. It was sour grapes by Carrillo (and wishful thinking by the liberal media) then, and was debunked tonight.
The Tea Party has peaked and is in decline. Cruz is just the latest Tea Party candidate to knock off an establishment Republican. And Sarah Palin looks more and more like the most powerful kingmaker in the Republican Party.
Big money will always trump grassroots enthusiasm. Dewhurst was a quarter-billionaire who outraised Cruz (at least initially) and dumped a ton of money on TV advertising. It didn’t help.
Social media isn’t nearly as important as TV and newspaper ad buys. The Cruz campaign was far more adept and nimble using Facebook, Twitter, etc., and it was a big factor in locking up grassroots support early. And many observers have noted that Dewhurst’s ad buys probably hurt him.
Negative campaigning is the key to victory. Dewhurst went negative early and often, and it not only raised Cruz’s profile, but backfired when people found out the issues they were hyping were trivia (the Chinese tire case) or outright lies (the amnesty and kids-for-cash smears). Honest negative campaigning is still a useful tool, but the Internet makes it so easy to debunk lies that obvious falsehoods no longer have time to take root before they’re debunked.
Media endorsements are vital to winning voter support. Dewhurst got the lion’s share of MSM endorsements. It obviously didn’t help him.
