A lot of Russo-Ukraine War news bubbled up last week when every other damn thing was happening, so here’s a roundup, much (but not all) from Suchomimus. Plus some bits on Russia’s economy and their continuing friction with various neighbors.
“Storm Shadow and Ukrainian-produced cruise missiles hit a train yard in Yasynuvyata, the officer Headquarters of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army plus drones destroy oil depot in Luhansk. Multiple impacts are seen–at least EIGHT missiles hit the train yard. Many more targeted the office headquarters. Six drones impacted the oil depot….One of Ukraine’s biggest missile strikes of the war so far.”
Usual Reporting From Ukraine caveats apply.
Russia economy meltdown as metal production plummets 23% and recession fears soar…
The Russian economy is on the brink of recession, with several key sectors showing dwindling productivity, according to analysis. Alexander Kolyandr from the Center for European Policy Analysis took to X to explain that the country’s manufacturing sector was “losing its mojo”, even in military production.
“The country is in a state of stagflation,” the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP). “Economic dynamics are declining rapidly, and there is a risk of a technical recession in the second and third quarters, but inflation remains high.”
It’s been less than three weeks since the central bank — supposedly independent from government control — symbolically lowered interest rates: from 21% to 20%. In doing so, it fulfilled a long-standing demand from the Kremlin. It was the first rate cut since September 2022, the year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This marked a break from a long cycle of interest rate hikes aimed at curbing rising prices.
The situation, however, remains dire. Official inflation still hovers around 10% year-on-year, although several independent institutes estimate the real figure to be above 15%. With military spending still running wild, “risks remain skewed towards inflation,” warned Nabiullina. “Our rate cut approach requires greater caution.”
The contradiction facing the central bank is a true reflection of the current state of the Russian economy, which has long dropped out of the world’s top 10 in terms of size. By now, even the Kremlin is beginning to acknowledge the obvious: that the economic boom driven by the war industry is coming to an end and that the savings made before the war are no longer enough.
Maxim Oreshkin, economic advisor to the all-powerful Presidential Executive Office, declared that the emperor has no clothes just before the St. Petersburg Forum: “The model that ensured growth in recent years has largely reached its limit […] We need to advance — not forward, but upward: to the next technological and organizational level.”
This followed on the heels of the Russian shootdown of an Azerbaijani plane last year, and there’s evidently no love lost between Putin and Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev. “The Azerbaijani political scientist and member of parliament Rasim Muzabekov says Baku no longer sees Moscow as an external power in a position to dictate the rules in the Caucasus. He told DW that Azerbaijan had begun to develop its own military and energy infrastructures, and that this, in turn, had annoyed the Kremlin.” No doubt. That’s what happens when you invade much smaller nations on your periphery and get bogged down in a quagmire.
These are just the developments I thought worth highlighting. If you know of others, feel free to share them in the comments below.
Tags: Alexander Kolyandr, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Baku, Donetsk, drones, Estonia, F-35, inflation, Izhevsk, Khartsyzk, Kiev, Luhansk, Maxim Oreshkin, Military, missile strike, nuclear weapons, railroads, Reporting from Ukraine, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Sergiev Posad, Shahed drone, Suchomimus, Sumy, Turkey, Ukraine, video, Yasynuvyata
Alexander Kolyandr at the Center for European Policy Analysis is almost certainly an agent of Agencja Wywiadu. You will find it entertaining to read his past predictions of Russian economic demise. The only number you need to know is 78.69. the USD/RUB today. The Russian Ruble has strengthened 25% against the Dollar and the Euro over the past 6 months. Mr. Kolyandr predicted USD/RUB would today be at 200, last November. You might remember we have debated the implications of numbers from 95 to 115 in the past. The Ruble has strengthened dramatically since. Russia’s 2025Q1 gold reserves are approximately 2,332.74 metric tons, having decreased slightly from 2,335.85 metric tons in 2024Q4.
Putin is concerned about a recession in the Donbass Oblasts, but not Russia as a whole. There is no evidence of Russian metallurgical output reductions, and the Russians are now producing more Iskander-M missiles than the Ukrainians can stop with our dwindling inventory of Patriot PAC-3s. Each Iskander-M the Russians launch requires 3 PAC-3s to achieve a 50% probability of interception. This is probably why Colby cut off Patriot interceptor shipments.
The Russian inflation rate has dropped below 8%. Elvira Nabiullina is the best central banker in the world, bar none. Her real test comes when the fighting ends, and the Russians have to demilitarize their economy.
The Russian Osa SAM has not been produced since 1988. IEMZ Kupol produces various Tor SAM systems and several highly sophisticated long range drones. It has never produced the Geron/Shaheed drone. The Ukrainians told us in November 2024 that their drone strike on the 17th of that month had wiped out IMEZ Kupol.
The Russian strikes on Kiev have targeted warehouses that the Russian underground claimed to be storing missiles and artillery shells. The substantial secondary explosions suggest that some Ukrainian ordnance has been destroyed. The latest Russian drone and missile targets across Ukraine have been the AFU military recruiting offices. These daytime attacks appear to be a follow on to the successful Russian attacks on AFU training facilities. The training facility attacks produced both many casualties and a wicked political backlash.
The Russians have accumulated about 7,000 bodies of fallen Ukrainian service men since the last exchange of 6,000 was completed on June 3rd. The Ukrainians do not seem interested in any further exchanges.
“The Russian Ruble has strengthened 25% against the Dollar and the Euro over the past 6 months.”
Russia is stronk.
Suchomimus eez fool.
Putin eez military genius.
Glorious Ruzzian army eez advancing rapidly…
At least 11 senior Russian commanders have been killed in action or assassinated by Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in February 2022:
Deputy head of the Russian Navy, Major General Mikhail Gudkov
Andrei Sukhovetsky, a deputy commander of the 41st army
Vladimir Frolov, Deputy commander of the 8th Guards Army
Kanamat Botashev, Major General of aviation forces
Colonel Roman Kutuzov (posthumously promoted to Lieutenant General)
Sergei Goryachev, Major General and chief of staff of the 35th army
Oleg Tsokov Lieutenant General and deputy commander of Russia’s Southern Military District
Vladimir Zavadsky, Major General and deputy commander of the 14th army
Major General Pavel Klimenko
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov
Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces
The peace-loving FSB extends warm Russian greetings to neighboring Azerbaijan:
“The deaths of brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, two Azerbaijani nationals who died during a police raid in Russia’s Yekaterinburg over the weekend, were caused by severe post-traumatic shock resulting from extensive bodily injuries, according to Azerbaijani Health Ministry official Adalyat Hasanov.
“Hasanov said the autopsy conducted in Baku contradicts the version of events presented by Russian authorities, who claimed the Safarov brothers died of heart attacks.
“’Neither brother was killed with a sharp object or firearm — they were beaten with a blunt object,'” Hasanov added.
“Citing the forensic report, Azerbaijani news outlet Minval reported that the Safarovs were subjected to brutal torture.”
“At least 11 senior Russian commanders have been killed in action or assassinated by Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in February 2022.”
Russian field grades are taught to lead from the front. This entails some hazards to life and limb. The Russian military is top heavy with field grades, so the losses are not critical to unit performances.
The Wehrmacht lost 256 generals on the Russian front during WW II. They also had a cultural bias to lead from the front, which was a critical element of their operational art. It dramatically improves combat performance.
“Russia is stronk.
Suchomimus eez fool.
Putin eez military genius.
Glorious Ruzzian army eez advancing rapidly…”
Putin is far from a military genius, but he is very fortunate in the demonstrated mediocrity of his enemies and opponents.
Since the 2022 invasion if Ukraine, being a Russian energy or transportation executive is more dangerous than that of Russian Generals.
They seem to be fatally attracted by open windows of upper storey buildings:
January 2022: Leonid Shulman, head of the transport service for Gazprom Investm
February 2022: Alexander Tyulyakov, deputy director of Gazprom’s Unified Settlement Center for Corporate Security
April 2022: Vladislav Avaev, vice president of Gazprombank
April 2022: Sergey Protosenya, former top manager of Novatek
May 2022: Alexander Subbotin, a former member of Lukoil’s board of directors
July 2022: Yuri Voronov, founder of Astra-Shipping (a Gazprom subcontractor)
August 2022: Ravil Maganov, chairman of Lukoil’s board of directors
December 2022: Oleg Zatsepin, general director of Kogalymneftegaz (a Lukoil subsidiary)
February 2023: Vyacheslav Rovneyko, co-founder of Urals Energy
October 2023: Vladimir Nekrasov, chairman of Lukoil’s board of directors
March 2024: Vitaly Robertus, vice president of Lukoil
July 2025: Andrey Badalov, vice president of Transneft
July 2025: Russian Transportation Minister, Roman Starovoit
You are almost safer being an Iranian.nuclear scientist these days…
I’m shocked…shocked to discover another Russian Transportation Minister has fallen out a window:
MOSCOW (AP) — The apparent suicide of Russia’s transportation minister brought expressions of shock and sorrow Tuesday from the Kremlin but no new clues as to why Roman Starovoit might have taken his own life amid media speculation that he potentially was facing corruption charges.
Starovoit, who served in his post for little over a year, was found dead from a gunshot wound — news that broke hours after a decree was issued Monday by President Vladimir Putin that dismissed the 53-year-old Cabinet member.
Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries have extremely high suicide rates, far higher than any other country with a European population. It is the most likely response to personal disgrace of any kind.
“I’m shocked…shocked to discover another Russian Transportation Minister has fallen out a window:”
Reuters, today:
‘Russian minister was implicated in embezzlement investigation before death, sources say’
“…Two sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Starovoit’s dismissal had been planned for some time because he was suspected of being involved in the embezzlement of funds earmarked for strengthening the defences in the Kursk region….”
Evidently, he stole like a Ukrainian and probably did not expect any better treatment from Mother Russia.
Remember how the Ukrainian generals and ministers stole all the funds to build backup defenses along the 2023H2 line of contact? Caused catastrophic AFU losses after their offensive collapsed.
Russians at least feel some degree of remorse for undermining the national defense.
“Russians at least feel some degree of remorse for undermining the national defense.”
Death similarly came for the Russian Generals who upheld the national defense. Russian underminers and underpinners now share a common grave.
“The Russian Ruble has strengthened 25% against the Dollar and the Euro over the past 6 months.”
The Russian rouble
Is headed for trouble
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he is considering additional sanctions against Moscow, commenting at his Cabinet meeting in Washington, D.C., that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be ‘nice,’ but his actions are ‘meaningless.’
“‘We get a lot of bull***t thrown at us by Putin if you want to know the truth,’ Trump commented, according to a video posted on X by his Rapid Response 47 team. ‘He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.’
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting war ‘should never have happened,’ Trump further commented. ‘A lot of people are dying, and it should end.’
“And when asked about pending legislation from Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., concerning sanctions against Russia, Trump added that he’s ‘looking at it.'”
Graham’s proposed 500% tarrif on countries trading with Russia, specifically India and China’s oil imports, will target Putin’s most critical source of war funding. Declining oil revenues have already blown a hole in his 2025 budget.
The US Senate will overwhelmingly vote in support of this measure.With no oil revenue to support the invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s war can only be financed through borrowing at 20% or by printing new notes. The ensuing financial collapse will closely resemble 1991.
“The Russian rouble
Is headed for trouble”
“Graham’s proposed 500% tarrif on countries trading with Russia, specifically India and China’s oil imports, will target Putin’s most critical source of war funding. Declining oil revenues have already blown a hole in his 2025 budget.”
I am so old I remember all the apocalyptic predictions for the Russian economy you have made since 2022. None have come to pass.
I also seem to remember your many rants against tariffs [note correct spelling], predicting massive inflation and hunger stalking the land. None of your tariff prophecies have come to pass, either.
Prognosis is not your calling.
“Prognosis is not your calling.”
If you cannot differentiate analysis from prognosis, the fault is not mine.
The reporting I’ve seen on the Azerbaijani dispute is that Russia had enough of Azerbaijani organized crime operating in Russia and cracked down on the gang. They were not just “Azerbaijani nationals.” The gang is well connected with the Azerbaijani government, which is by all accounts a RICO enterprise itself. In true gangster fashion, the Azerbaijani government is taking some Russian journalists and other Russian nationals hostage to obtain the release of gang members held in Russia. I have no first hand knowledge; this is just what I’ve heard, and it sounds plausible.
“Russia had enough of Azerbaijani organized crime operating in Russia and cracked down on the gang.”
Capo di tutti capi Vladimir Putin will not tolerate competition from Mafia rivals.
We need to get 10x25mm and Malthus on a podcast together. I give it 30 minutes top before the bloodshed starts.
“If you cannot differentiate analysis from prognosis, the fault is not mine.”
“The Russian rouble
Is headed for trouble”
This is prognosis, as are many of your posts. Prognosis is “a forecast or prediction”.
Buckle down in your ESL classes.
From the article: “Azerbaijan had begun to develop its own military and energy infrastructures, and that this, in turn, had annoyed the Kremlin.”
Azerbaijan has been independent of the old USSR for 30+ years and DOESN’T have its own military infrastructure?
Even Wiki knows better. The Azeris spend > 5% of GDP on its military. They canoodle with NATO in the ‘Partnerships for Peace’ program. Oh, and there’s the small kerfuffle they’ve been having with Armenia where they’ve been kicking Armenian tushki’s. Seems like the Azeris have plenty of military infrastructure.
Member of parliament Rasim Muzabekov is either an idiot or else is spreading happy horsesh!t.