Posts Tagged ‘Democrats’

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Republicans to Gain 100 Seats in House?

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics suggests that Democrats could be in for a bigger shellacking this November than the suffered even in 1994.

A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

He foresees a bad economy, a controversial agenda (i.e, the deep unpopularity of runway spending in general and ObamaCare in specific) and the reversal of the 2006-2008 Democratic wins in traditionally Republican districts combining for a perfect storm of voter anger directed at the Democratic party.

Also this:

Remember, Republicans don’t need to win in Massachusetts for a landslide; they could pick up seventy seats without winning a single one in a Democratic-leaning district.

Certainly it’s too early for premature celebration; six months is a long time in politics. But there’s good reason for Republicans to be optimistic…if they don’t blow it.

If Michael Steele isn’t scrambling to make sure every Democratic incumbent has at least one Republican challenger for the general election, he’s not doing his job.

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Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

Potential ObamaCare Flip Target Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24)

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Last week we discussed Rep. Jason Altmire as a possible “No-to-Yes” flip vote on ObamaCare. The other two names listed were Bart Gordon (TN 06), who has announced his retirement, and Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24). Let us now turn to the latter.

How important is her vote? Obama set aside 15-20 minutes to personally pitch ObamaCare to her last week.

Rep. Suzanne Kosmas

According to her campaign website, “Suzanne has utilized her experience as a former small business owner to become a leading advocate for small business issues. She has introduced or sponsored legislation to ease the burden of health care costs for small businesses, to institute a payroll tax holiday, and to cut taxes for entrepreneurs.”

Hmmm, since ObamaCare would force many small businesses to provide insurance or pay penalties, I fail to see how you could vote for it and still be considered pro-small business.

She voted against Obama’s 2009 budget in April 2009, one of only 20 Democrats to do so, which might indicate either that she has some fiscal conservatives leanings, or perhaps only that she lives in a very competitive district and was given leave to vote No by Pelosi as political cover since she didn’t need Kosmas’ vote.

She voted No on ObamaCare last time, and explained her reasons thus (including worries about the staggering cost), but her website makes her sound like she would be willing to flip to a Yes vote.

Her District

In central Florida, District 24 sprawls from NASA to Disney World. (Insert your own Mickey Mouse joke here.) McCain edged Obama 51% to 49%, indication that it’s very much an evenly divided swing district, and very possible to flip Republican, especially if ObamaCare passes.

In 2008 she beat Republican Tom Feeney, largely on the basis of his ties with lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Kosmas herself is no stranger to tainted money; it was only two weeks ago that she decided to give the U.S. Treasury the $14,000 she got from Rep. Charlie Rangel, despite the fact that his problems paying his taxes came up well over a year ago.


Rep. Suzanne Kosmas’s $17,000 Friend

This time around, she’s attracted a well-funded political outsider as a Republican challenger: Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse.

Miller is more likely to prove a formidable opponent than one Larry Sinclair, whose claim to fame (such as it is) is writing a book alleging that he “engaged in homosexual acts with then-Illinois Senator Barack Obama [in 1999], who during these trysts not only procured cocaine for the author, but also smoked crack cocaine while being fellated.”

Her Backers

The Sunlight Foundation noted that Kosmas (along with Altmire, Frank Kratovil, Scott Murphy, Glenn Nye, Michael McMahon and Betsy Markey) as “as potential vote-flippers on the health care reform bill [heavily] reliant on campaign funds from party leadership and online progressive activists,” as all seven list “Leadership PACs (political action committees) in the top three career industry donors.”

Other than Rangel, her backers include Michael G. Helton, the President of NASCAR (if I had to guess, I would estimate that the overwhelming majority of NASCAR enthusiasts are opposed to ObamaCare), who gave $2,400, as did two members of private equity fund The Tavistock Group. She seems to be favored by lawyers and real estate interests, as well as liberal feminist PAC EMILY’s List (she voted against the Stupak Amendment). She has less-obvious health care industry ties than Altmire, but Peter J. Licari, the president of Complete HealthCare Resources, gave her $1,000.

Also among her donors is a John W. Holloway, who gave her $2,400 and listed his occupation as “self-employed/poet.” Since the number of people who make even $2,400 a year off poetry is probably vanishingly small, I think we can safely assume that Mr. Holloway’s money comes from being the son of ABC Fine Wine & Spirits founder John D. “Jack” Holloway.

Contact Information

Here’s her main contact form.

Here’s a meeting request form.

Here’s here office contact information from her website.

Congresswoman Suzanne M. Kosmas
Washington D.C. Office
238 Cannon HOB
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: (202) 225-2706
Fax: (202) 226-6299

Local Office
Congresswoman Suzanne M. Kosmas
1000 City Center Circle, 2nd Floor
Port Orange, FL 32129
Phone: (386) 756-9798
Fax: (386) 756-9903

Congresswoman Suzanne M. Kosmas
12424 Research Parkway, Ste 135
Orlando, FL 32826
Phone: (407)-208-1106
Fax: (407)-208-1108
Toll free number: 1-877-9-KOSMAS (1-877-956-7627)

Here’s a page to request a speaking engagement from Rep. Kosmas.

I would suggest trying to contact her through her reelection campaign website, but that page unhelpfully states “You cannot send more than 3 messages per hour. Please try again later,” despite my not having sent a single message. Methinks that many people unhappy with ObamaCare may have tried that route already…

Conclusion

Kosmas is probably more likely to flip to a Yes than Altmire who, since my post last week, has sounded more like he’s leaning toward the No camp. Kosmas, not being in the Stupak group, is going to be a harder sell to keep a No. However, should she cave-in on ObamaCare, Republicans should have an excellent chance of flipping her seat in November.

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Posted in Democrats, ObamaCare, Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Vulnerable Congressmen Who Voted For ObamaCare

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

I’d been meaning to compile a list of vulnerable Democratic congressmen who voted for ObamaCare. I was going to carefully study each, look at the voting and demographic statistics for their district, and then carefully determine which would be the best to target for voting against ObamaCare or, if that didn’t work, to target for unseating this fall.

And then an email from the anti-ObamaCare group Take Back Medicine landed in my inbox that already had a list of vulnerable and targeted incumbents, which evidently originated with political Mercenary of Moderation Dick Morris.

Well, what can I say? I’m a busy man. I’m also lazy.

So here’s their list, complete with exclamation points after the phone numbers. (Remember, if you live outside the Congressman’s district, don’t bother calling, as chances are they won’t give you the time of day.)

Vulnerable Congressmen Who Voted for Obamacare The First Time Around

Arizona:
Harry Mitchell (Phoenix suburbs) Call (202) 225-2190!
Gabrielle Giffords (Tucson) Call (202) 225-2542!
Ann Kirkpatrick (most of rural Arizona, NE part of state) Call (202) 225-2315!

California:
Jerry McNerney (Stockton and Pleasanton) Call (202) 225-1947!

Colorado:
John Salazar (Pueblo) Call 202-225-4761!

Connecticut:
Jim Hines (Fairfield County) Call (202) 225-5541!

Florida:
Alan Grayson (Orlando) Call (202) 225-2176!

Illinois:
Bill Foster (Dixon, Batavia, and Geneseo) Call (202) 225-2976!

Indiana:
Baron Hill (from Kentucky border up to Bloomington) Call (202) 225-3011!

Louisana:
Joseph Cao Call (202) 225-6636!

Michigan:
Mark Schauer (Branch, Calhoun, Eaton, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee & Washtenaw counties) Call (202) 225-6276!
Gary Peters (Oakland County) Call (202) 225-5802!

Nevada:
Dina Titus (Las Vegas) Call (202) 225-3252!

New Hampshire:
Carol Shea-Porter (Portsmouth, Manchester, Lakes Region) Call (202) 225-5456!

New York:
Tim Bishop (Suffolk County) Call (202) 225-3826!
John Hall (Northern Westchester) Call (202) 225-5441!
Bill Owens (Plattsburgh up along Vermont border to Canada) Call (202) 225-4611!
Mike Arcuri (Utica and south central NY) Call (202)225-3665!
Dan Maffei (Syracuse) Call (202) 225-3701!

North Dakota:
Earl Pomneroy (at large) Call (202) 225-2611!

Ohio:
Steven Driehaus (Cincinnati west to Indiana border) Call (202) 225-2216!
Mary Jo Kilroy (Columbus and west to Indiana border) Call (202) 225-2015!
Zach Space (Dover, Zanesville, Chillicothe) Call (202) 225-6265!

Pennsylvania:
Kathy Dahlkemper (Erie) Call (202) 225-5406!
Patrick Murphy (Bucks County) Call (202) 225-4276!
Christopher Carney (NE Penn) Call (202) 225-3731!
Paul Kanjorski (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) Call 202-225-6511!

South Carolina:
John Spratt (rural SC between Columbia and Charlotte) Call (202) 225-5501!

Virginia:
Tom Perriello (Charlottesville, Bedford, Timberlake, Martinsville & Danville) Call (202) 225-4711!

West Virginia:
Alan Mollohan (Wheeling, Morgantown) Call (202) 225-4172!
Nick Rahall (Huntington) Call (202) 225-3452!

Wisconsin:
Steve Kagen (Green Bay) Call (202) 225-5665!

An Additional List of Congressmen Targeted by the Tea Party

Rep. Michael Arcuri, New York 24th
http://arcuri.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3665, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-1891
Local Office Number: (315) 252-2777/2778, Local Fax Number: (315) 252-2779

Rep. John Boccieri, Ohio, 16th
http://boccieri.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3876, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3059
Local Office Number: (330) 489-4414, Local Fax Number: (330) 489-4448

Rep. Allen Boyd, Florida, 2nd
http://boyd.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5235, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5615
Local Office Number: (850) 561-3979, Local Fax Number: (850) 681-2902

Rep. Christopher Carney, Pennsylvania, 16th
http://carney.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3731, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-9594
Local Office Number: (570) 585-9988, Local Fax Number: (570) 585-9977

Rep. Gerald “Gerry” Connolly, Virginia, 11th
http://connolly.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-1492 DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3071
Local Office Number: (703) 256-3071, Local Fax Number: (703) 354-1284

Rep. Henry Cuellar, Texas 28th
http://cuellar.house.gov/
DC Office Number: 202-225-1640, DC Fax Number: 202-225-1641
Local Office Number: (210) 271-2851, Local Fax Number: (210) 277-6671

Rep. Steve Driehaus, Ohio, 1st
http://driehaus.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2216, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3012
Local Office Number: (513) 684-2723, Local Fax Number: (513) 421-8722

Rep. Chet Edwards, Texas, 17th
http://edwards.house.gov/
DC Office Number: 202-225-6105, DC Fax Number: Fax: 202-225-0350
Local Office Number: (979) 691-8797, Local Fax Number: (979) 691-8939

Rep. Brad Ellsworth, Indiana, 8th
http://www.ellsworth.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4636, DC Office Fax: (202) 225-3284
Local Office Number: (812) 465-6484, Local Fax Number: (812) 422-4761

Rep. Bob Etheridge, North Carolina, 2nd
http://etheridge.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4531
Local Office Number: (919) 829-9122

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Arizona, 8th
http://giffords.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2542, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-0378
Local Office Number: (520) 881-3588, Local Fax Number: (520) 322-9490

Rep. Deborah “Debbie” Halvorson, Illinois, 11th
http://halvorson.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3635, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3521
Local Office Number: (815) 726-4998, Local Fax Number: (815) 726-8024

Rep. Paul W. Hodes, New Hampshire, 2nd
http://hodes.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5206, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-2946
Local Office Phone: (603) 223-9814, Local Fax Number: (603) 223-9819

Rep. Jay Inslee, Washington, 1st
http://www.house.gov/inslee/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-6311, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-1606
Local Office Number: (360) 598-2342, Local Fax Number: (360) 598-3650

Rep. Paul Kanjorski, Pennsylvania, 11th
http://kanjorski.house.gov/
DC Office Number: 202-225-6511, DC Fax Number: 202-225-0764
Local Office Number: 570-825-2200, Local Fax Number: 570-825-8685

Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Ohio, 9th
http://www.kaptur.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4146, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-7711
Local Office Number: (419) 259-7500, Local Fax Number: (419) 255-9623

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona, 1st
http://kirkpatrick.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2315, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-9739
Local Office Number: (928) 226-6914, Local Fax Number: (928) 226-2876

Rep. Ron Klein, Florida, 22nd
http://www.klein.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225.3026, DC Fax Number: (202) 225.8398
Local Office Number: (561) 544-6910, Local Fax Number: (561) 544-2864

Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, Florida, 24th
http://www.kosmas.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2706, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-6299
Local Office Number: (407) 208-1106, Local Fax Number: (407) 208-1108

Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich, Ohio 10th
http://kucinich.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5871
Local Office Number: (216) 228-8850

Rep. Jim Langevin, Rhode Island, 2nd
http://langevin.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2735, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5976
Local Office Number: (401) 732-9400, Local Fax Number: (401) 737-2982

Rep. Stephen Lynch, Massachusetts, 9th
http://www.house.gov/lynch/
DC Office Number: 202-225-8273, DC Fax Number: 202-225-3984
Local Office Number: 617-428-2000, Local Office Fax: 617-428-2011

Rep. Daniel B. Maffei, New York, 25th
http://maffei.house.gov/
DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3701, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-4042
Local Office Number: (315) 423-5657, Local Fax Number: (315) 423-5669

Rep. Ed Markey, Massachusetts, 7th
http://markey.house.gov/
DC Office Number: 202-225-2836
Local Office Number: 781-396-2900

Rep. Alan B. Mollohan, West Virginia, 1st
http://www.mollohan.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4172, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-7564
Local Office Number: (304) 292-3019, Local Fax Number: (304) 292-3027

Rep. John Murtha, Pennsylvania, 12th
http://www.murtha.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2065, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5709
Local Office Number: (814) 535-2642, Local Fax Number: (814) 539-6229

Rep. Glenn C. Nye III, Virginia, 2nd
http://nye.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4215, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-4218
Local Office Number: (757) 326-6201, Fax: (757) 326-6209

Rep. Tom Perriello, Virginia, 5th
http://perriello.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4711, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5681
Local Office Number: (434) 293-9631, Local Fax Number: (434) 293-9632

Rep. Gary Peters, Michigan, 9th
http://peters.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5802, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-2356
Local Office Number: (248) 273-4227, Local Fax Number: (248) 273-4704

Rep. Nick Rahall, West Virginia, 3rd
http://www.rahall.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3452
Local Office Number: (304) 325-6222

Rep. Laura Richardson, California, 37th
http://richardson.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-7924, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-7926
District Office Number: (202) 225-7924, District Fax Number: (202) 225-7926

Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, Texas 23rd
http://www.rodriguez.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4511, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-2237
Local Office Number: (830) 757-8398, Local Fax Number: (830) 752-1893

Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, Maryland, 2nd
http://dutch.house.gov/
DC Office Number: 202-225-3061, DC Fax Number: 202-225-3094
Local Office Number: 410-628-2701, Local Fax Number: 410-628-2708

Rep. Linda Sanchez, California, 39th
http://lindasanchez.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-6676
Local Office Number: (562) 860-5050

Rep. Kurt Schrader, Oregon, 5th
http://schrader.house.gov/index.html
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5711, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5699
Local Office Number: (503) 588-9100, Local Fax Number: (503) 588-5517

Rep. David Scott, Georgia, 13th
http://davidscott.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2939, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-4628
Local Office Number: (770) 210-5073, Local Fax Number: (770) 210-5673

Rep. Adam Smith, Washington, 9th
http://adamsmith.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-8901
Local Office Number: (253) 593-6600, Local Fax Number: (253) 593-6776

Rep. Peter Visclosky, Indiana, 1st
http://www.house.gov/visclosky/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2461, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-2493
Local Office Number: (219) 795-1844, DC Fax Number: (219) 795-1850

Rep. David Wu, Oregon, 1st
http://www.house.gov/wu/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-0855, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-9497
Local Office Number: (503) 326-2901, Local Fax Number: (503) 326-5066

Rep. John Adler, New Jersey 3rd
http://adler.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4765, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-0778
Local Office Number: (732) 608-7235, Local Fax Number: (732) 608-7268

Rep. Jason Altmire, Pennsylvania 4th
http://www.altmire.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2565, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-2274
Local Office Number: (724) 378-0928, Local Fax Number: (724) 378-6171

Rep. Brian Baird, Washington 3rd
http://www.baird.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3536, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-2478
Local Office Number: (360) 695-6292, Local Fax Number: (360) 695-6197

Rep. John Barrow, Georgia 12th
http://www.barrow.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2823, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3377
Local Office Number: (706) 722-4494, Local Fax Number: (706) 722-4496

Rep. Melissa Bean, Illinois 8th
http://www.house.gov/bean/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3711, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-7830
Local Office Number: (847) 517-2927, Local Fax Number: (847) 517-2931

Rep. Marion Berry, Arkansas 1st
http://www.house.gov/berry/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4076, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5602
Local Office Number: (870) 972-4600, Local Fax Number: (870) 972-4605

Rep. Rick Boucher, Virginia 9th
http://www.boucher.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3861, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-0442
Local Office Number: (276) 628-1145

Rep. Dennis Cardoza, California 18th
http://www.house.gov/cardoza/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-6131, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-0819
Local Office Number: (209) 383-4455, Local Fax Number: (209) 726-1065

Rep. Travis Childers, Mississippi 1st
http://childers.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4306, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3549
Local Office Number: (662) 841-8808, Local Fax Number: (662) 841-8845

Rep. Jim Costa, California 20th
http://www.house.gov/costa/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3341, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-9308
Local Office Number: (559) 495-1620, Local Fax Number: (559) 495-1027

Rep. Artur Davis, Alabama 7th
http://www.house.gov/arturdavis/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2665, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-9567
Local Office Number: (205) 752-5380, Local Fax Number: (205) 752-5899

Rep. Joe Donnelly, Indiana 2nd
http://donnelly.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3915, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-6798
Local Office Number: (574) 288-2780, Local Fax Number: (574) 288-2825

Rep. Parker Griffith, Alabama 5th
http://griffith.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4801, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-4392
Local Office Number: (256) 551-0190, Local Fax Number: (256) 551-0194

Rep. Baron Hill, Indiana 9th
http://baronhill.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5315, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-6866
Local Office Number: (812) 288-3999, Local Fax Number: (812) 288-3873

Rep. Steve Kagen, Wisconsin 8th
http://kagen.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5655, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5729
Local Office Number: (920) 437-1954, Local Fax Number: (920) 437-1978

Rep. Daniel Lipinski, Illinois 3rd
http://www.lipinski.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5701, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-1012
Local Office Number: (312) 886-0481, Local Fax Number: (773) 767-9395

Rep. Jim Marshall, Georgia 8th
http://jimmarshall.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-6531, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-3013
Local Office Number: (478) 464-0255, Local Fax Number: (478) 464-0277

Rep. Jim Matheson, Utah 2nd
http://www.house.gov/matheson/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3011, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-5638
Local Office Number: (801) 486-1236, Local Fax Number: (801) 486-1417

Rep. Michael E. McMahon, New York 13th
http://mcmahon.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3371, DC Fax Number: (202) 226-1272
Local Office Number: (718) 351-1062, Local Fax Number: (718) 980-0768

Rep. Michael Michaud, Maine 2nd
http://michaud.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-6306, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-2943
Local Office Number: (207) 942-6935, Local Fax Number: (207) 942-5907

Rep. Harry Mitchell, Arizona 5th
http://mitchell.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2190
Local Office Number: (480) 946-2411

Rep. Collin C. Peterson, Minnesota 7th
http://collinpeterson.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2165, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-1593
Local Office Number: (218) 847-5056

Rep. Mike Ross, Arkansas 4th
http://ross.house.gov/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-3772, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-1314
Local Office Number: (870) 881-0681, Local Fax Number: (870) 881-0683

Rep. Ike Skelton, Missouri 4th
http://www.house.gov/skelton/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-2876
Local Office Number: (816) 228-4242

Rep. Bart Stupak, Michigan 1st
http://www.house.gov/stupak/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-4735, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-4744
Local Office Number: (906) 786-4504, Local Fax Number: (906) 786-4534

Rep. Gene Taylor, Mississippi 4th
http://www.house.gov/genetaylor/
DC Office Number: (202) 225-5772, DC Fax Number: (202) 225-7074
Local Office Number: (228) 864-7670, Local Fax Number: (228) 864-3099

At some point in the future, I still want to examine vulnerable Democratic congressmen in more detail, but defeating ObamaCare has to come first.

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Posted in Democrats, ObamaCare | 1 Comment »

Gentlemen, Your Crow

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

Given the huge upheaval in the political landscape following Scott Brown’s upset victory in the Massachusetts senatorial race, I thought it was time to revisit what many in the liberal punditocracy were saying following Obama’s victory in 2008. There may very well have been some liberal commentators advising caution and restraint, least liberal ambitions and hubris lay the Democratic party low. However, I don’t remember any of them. What I do remember is numerous notables bandying about phrases like “the Republican Party is finished” and “permanent progressive majority.” Let’s exhume that commentary from its dusty vaults (some over a year old; very dusty indeed in Internet years) and see who might be dining tonight in Hell on a generous, tasty helping of fricasseed crow.

For example, here’s The New Republic‘s John B. Judis in an article entitled “America the Liberal” published November 19, 2008 explaining how Obama’s election heralded a fundamental realignment in American politics:

If Obama and congressional Democrats act boldly, they can not only arrest the downturn but also lay the basis for an enduring majority. As was the case with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, many of the measures necessary to combat today’s recession will also help ensure long-term Democratic electoral success. Many Southerners remained Democrats for generations in part because of Roosevelt’s rural electrification program; a similar program for bringing broadband to the hinterland could lure these voters back to the Democratic Party. And national health insurance could play the same role in Democrats’ future prospects that Social Security played in the perpetuation of the New Deal majority.

-snip-

The Republican Party will be divided and demoralized after this defeat. And, just as the Great Depression took Prohibition and the other great social issues of the 1920s off the popular agenda, this downturn has pushed aside the culture war of the last decades. It simply wasn’t a factor in the presidential election.

If, however, Obama and the Democrats take the advice of official Washington and go slow–adopting incremental reforms, appeasing adversaries that have lost their clout–they could end up prolonging the downturn and discrediting themselves.

Or alternately, ObamaCare could doom that same realignment in less than a year after he took office. And of all the complaints about the Obama-Reid-Pelosi policy initiatives that Massachusetts voters voiced, I’m pretty sure that “going too slow” wasn’t among them. (Also, I think Sarah Palin and company might take issue with the assertion that the culture war “simply wasn’t a factor in the presidential election.”)

For another example, take Judis’ sometimes-collaborator, liberal demographer Ruy Teixeira, who has been predicting a “permanent democratic majority” for about as long as I can remember. In March 2009, his study “New Progressive America: Twenty Years of Demographic, Geographic, and Attitudinal Changes Across the Country Herald a New Progressive Majority” had this to say:

“At this point in our history, progressive arguments combined with the continuing demographic and geographic changes are tilting our country in a progressive direction—trends should take America down a very different road than has been traveled in the last eight years. A new progressive America is on the rise.”

Sunset seems to have come remarkably quickly for that “new progressive America.”

For the wisdom of another old Democratic party hand, let’s see what Robert Shrum (who managed just about every losing Democratic presidential campaign in living memory) had to say in The Week on September 22, 2009 about the political climate:

“After this summer of discontent, Republicans think they can ride a wave of bitter tea to electoral victory. Once the tide runs out, they will be left high and dry. After health reform passes, probably with the help of Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine, Republicans will crawl out of their hole to assail it in the campaigns ahead as ‘socialism’ or worse.”

With such vaunted prognostication skills, I can’t imagine how Schrum’s campaigns could possibly have failed.

The day after the 2008 election, Dan Conley of prominent left-wing blog MyDD proclaimed the “Death of the Center-Right Myth”:

“The CRM is dead. Long live the New Liberal America.”

However, he tempered his prediction with this: “Liberalism succeeds when Americans feel their faith in government restored. It won’t happen overnight … it’s a process that will probably outlive the Obama administration.”

Not only did Obama not restore America’s “faith” in government, the project itself didn’t make it a fourth of the way through Obama’s term.

Here’s another MyDDer, Todd Beeton, on November 9, 2008, saying that Americans had come around to the Democrat’s views on the virtues of big government, saying “Republicans Should Keep Running Against Big Government & Higher Taxes: That would be awesome.”

Well, Mr. Beeton, it appears that Scott Brown took your advice. I don’t think he garnered the results you were expecting.

(Confession: I went looking for similarly clueless pronouncements among the more prominent ranks of the Daily Kos Kids, and wasn’t able to find them, possibly because in the weeks after the 2008 election they seemed completely obsessed with ranting against the unimaginable perfidy of Joseph Lieberman.)

Here’s a story called “Requiem for the Republican Party” by a Mike Whitney (a self-proclaimed Libertarian) on a site called The Market Oracle on May 6, 2009. It’s, um, somewhat less than oracular:

“The poor GOP isn’t really even a party anymore; it’s more like a vaudeville troupe scuttling from one backwater to the next performing the same worn slapstick. They’ve simply become irrelevant, a ‘non-party’ that no one pays much attention to apart from the occasional zinger on the Daily Show or Letterman. In truth, the GOP is so deeply-traumatized from their shocking fall from power, they’d probably benefit from a spell on the couch. Perhaps if they spent a few weeks in therapy, they’d see what a mess they’ve made of everything….The Republican party is finished. Stick a fork in it.”

I don’t think I’ll be taking stock-picking advice from Mr. Whitney anytime soon.

In the more obscure corners of the web, take a look at the retrospectively hilarious map that one Dan Chmielewski offers up from Gallup on a site called The Liberal OC. It features Texas as a “competitive state” and Oklahoma as a “leaning Democratic” state. You know, the same Oklahoma that had just gone for McCain over Obama by 66% to 34%. It also notes that Massachusetts is the second most liberal state in the union.

How quickly things change.

Finally, it should be noted that it’s not only liberals who believed Republicans would be losing for the foreseeable future. Take perhaps the most singular example of that rarest of species, the “Pro-Obama Conservative,” New York Times columnist David Brooks, who proclaimed that “Traditionalists” would lead the party to defeat until “Reformers” (i.e., people who act, talk, and think precisely like urbane, mannered moderates like David Brooks) finally took control. “The reformers tend to believe that American voters will not support a party whose main idea is slashing government.” Mr. Brooks further states (and this is a real quote, not an Iowahawk parody) that “They cannot continue to insult the sensibilities of the educated class and the entire East and West Coasts.”

Heaven forfend that sensibilities be insulted! Why if they continue to do that, all they can hope to achieve is seizing Ted Kennedy’s old seat! Their failure is assured.

Gentlemen, dinner is served:

Postscript: Some may consider all the above a blatant case of schadenfreude. Well, yes. But that’s not the only reason to post it.

First, when your political opponents say something amazingly stupid, you have to call them on it. There’s a small chance they might learn better, and a larger chance that the populace at large will start to discount their opinions once they discover just how demonstrably divorced from reality those opinions are.

Second, I wanted to demonstrate how easy it was, in the flush of victory, to make unwise, sweeping statements that are very likely to look quite foolish at some point in the future. Generally, statements about the “unstoppable” electoral rise of one political faction or another (or, to use that hoary old chestnut of the left, “historical inevitability”) are going to be proven wrong sooner or later. There are no permanent political victories in a democratic society. It is possible for individuals (or even, as the Whigs found out, entire political parties) to lose so badly they never recover, but the game goes on. In this light, extrapolating Scott Brown’s win to proclaim the inevitability of widespread Republican gains this November would be equally foolish and ill-advised. Such gains now look entirely possible, especially if Republicans, tea party members, conservatives, etc. are willing to put in the time, effort, and hard work to make it so, but they are by no means inevitable. Or, to paraphrase Instapundit: “Great win, kid. Now don’t get cocky.”

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For the Obama Administration, your health John Murtha’s Pals Come First

Wednesday, January 6th, 2010

Remember Rep. John Murtha? The congressman who called his own constituents racists? You know, the John Murtha who sits as the chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee? The John Murtha whose nephew got $4 million in no-bid Defense contracts? The man at the center of the PMA Group lobbying scandal? The John Murthta who secured more than $200 million worth of taxpayer dollars for little-used John Murtha Airport?

You do? Good.

Well, guess what company got a single-source contract to produce anthrax vaccines? That would be PharmAthene, a company run by Murtha cronies Joel McCleary and James Ervin. And just who awarded the contract? That would be the Department of Homeland Security’s Under Secretary for the Science and Technology Directorate Tara O’Toole, who just happens (better sit down for this one) to be a friend of…Rep. John Murtha! (I know, it’s a shock. What are the odds?)

What would you care to bet that the same sorts of high ethical standards will be used to dole out funds for ObamaCare?

But wait! There’s still more exciting news on the Obama-anthrax front! If John Murtha’s cronies actually do succeed is producing enough anthrax vaccine, how will it be distributed in an emergency? Why, by that epitome of speed and efficiency, The U.S. Postal Service! As Stewart Baker at Skating on Stilts put it: “No one but an idiot would bet their children’s lives on that option.”

Here’s a link to CREW’s extremely informative interactive documentation of the web of corruption that surrounds Murtha, You Don’t Know Jack.

The Boot Murtha homepage may also be of interest.

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The Constitution is not a Suicide Pact, but ObamaCare is

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Given that it’s no so extrordinarily unpopular that it threatens to unseat numerous Democratic senators next year.

  • “A recent Zogby poll showed 28% of state voters support ‘reform.’ A full 40% said they’d be less likely to vote for Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan next year if he supports a bill. In a theoretical matchup with Republican Gov. John Hoeven (who has yet to announce), Mr. Hoeven wins 55% to 36%. Mr. Dorgan has been in the Senate 17 years; he won his last election with 68% of the vote.”
  • “In Arkansas, 32% support this health-care legislation. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, also running next year, trails challengers by more than 50 points among the 56% of voters who strongly disapprove of the health plan.”
  • “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the public face of health reform, can barely break 38% approval in Nevada.”

Maybe they should be calling it “doctor-assisted political suicide”…

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Did liberals get their John Edwards mixed up?

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

According to Pew: “Conservatives and Republicans report fewer experiences than liberals or Democrats communicating with the dead, seeing ghosts and consulting fortunetellers or psychics.”

Now, who was it that was part of the “Reality-Based Community” again?

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Polls for Obama, ObamaCare, continue to plunge

Friday, December 11th, 2009

61% now oppose ObamaCare.

And according to Gallup, only 47% still support Obama himself. (Quinnipiac puts it at 46%.)

And, to add insult to injury, 44% now say they’d prefer to have Bush 43 back as President rather than Obama.

OK, let’s start the pool: At what date do you predict a plurality of voters will say they would prefer Bush back as President rather than Obama? My completely unscientific guess is March 21, 2010.

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If Obama is the Democratic Party’s quarterback…

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

…then right now his passer rating is a couple of points better than JaMarcus Russell.

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Kentucky’s Tax Dollars At Work

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

From the fine folks over at The Corner comes this wonderful, two-part story of tax dollars at work.

It seems that the Louisville African American Think Tank wanted to put on a two day “urban health summit,” and applied for, and received, a government grant. Except there seems to be a few tiny problems:

  • The “think thank” in question wasn’t tax exempt, having been dissolved by the state in 2005 for failing to file annual reports.
  • The board of the think tank had a, ah, “colorful” history:
    • “Treasurer Theron Dunn has been arrested for theft and burglary.”
    • “Secretary Terell Stoner has two full pages of charges including sexual abuse, armed robbery and assault.”
    • “Yancy Davis, a director, has been arrested for drug violations, carrying a concealed weapon and child abuse.”
    • Think Tank Director Rev. Gerome Sutton was once on the “Louisville’s Most Wanted” list for forging his ex-wife’s signature on her car title and failing to pay more than $30,000 in court-ordered alimony, and was also arrested for allegedly threatening to kill his ex-wife.
  • Best of all: The initial $10,000 check from the state was cashed at a liquor store.

And this was from a state government. Just think: If Rev. Sutton had only applied for some of that sweet stimulus money, he’d still be receiving checks…

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