I don’t usually cover state level gun lawsuits (and Texas is pro-Second Amendment enough that they aren’t necessary here), but Washington State vs. Gator’s Guns is interesting, in that Washington State’s unconstitutional “high” (i.e. standard) capacity magazine ban has a good chance of being thrown out as unconstitutional.
Unlike two other cases challenging the law, Washington state’s Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson is the one suing Gator’s Guns. That means the case will be tried in rural Cowlitz County, as Ferguson can’t get the venue moved to liberal, urban Thurston County.
Pete Serrano of the Silent Majority Foundation: “We’ve had several hearings before judge [Gary] Basher, the presiding judge in this jurisdiction, who said ‘I want to know whether or not this ban is constitutional. Everything else can come in on the back end.'”
The AG’s playbook on cases in Kings and Pierce County was radically different. Serrano: “The Attorney General came in hard, fast, hit the person, and either tried to extract the settlement agreement or punish them immediately and had a favorable venue.”
Usually scheduling order hearings are uneventful things that can be done by Zoom. Not this one. Serrano: “Here the judge ordered us into the court in person on Monday and said ‘Listen, you guys can’t get the scheduling together because we’re pushing to have this thing done and heard by the end of 2023.'” The AG is trying to drag things out well into 2024.
The constitutional issues in the case have been covered before. Serrano: “We’ve briefed it in Brumback [vs. Ferguson], we’ve seen it briefed in other cases throughout the state and.”
“You have [U.S. District] Judge [Roger] Benitez’s opinion on the same thing in California.”
Washington Gun Law President William Kirk: “Let’s also remember that a lot of the case law that we’re talking about on the assault weapon bans, is also similar case law that would be cited in a magazine ban case as well.” I suspect this is a reference to Bruen. One thing I haven’t seen in this video or the snippets on this case online is how Bruen has changed the burden of proof on government regulation of citizen firearms.
Serrano: “There’s nothing really original here.”
Kirk: “Did the Attorney General bite off a little more than they could chew on this one?”
Serrano: “Oh absolutely…It was like here’s a gift from God. Or, you know definitely not God, but from Bob Ferguson. It’s [a gift] from Satan…He’s going to go into a rural small conservative county and sue someone who allegedly sold over a thousand of these magazines.”
In 12 years, Cowlitz County has gone from mild blue to deep red.
This is the sort of magazine ban I can see being struck down even before Bruen. In light of the the post-Bruen environment, it’s hard to believe it won’t get struck down.
Only stubborn Democratic dedication to complete civilian disarmament keeps the Bob Fergusons of the world trying to impose gun control methods that have already been found unconstitutional.
The usual fuzzy-headed leftist types are trying to argue for a false moral equivalence between Benjamin Netanyahu, the elected Likud leader of Israel that leftists hate because he’s friendly with Republicans and thwarted Obama’s attempts to defeat him, and Hamas, a designated terrorist organization. Never mind that Netanyahu has never celebrated beheading babies.
Since this moral idiocy pops up time and time again, let us once again explicate the obvious: Hamas isn’t just in favor of “liberating Palestine” (i.e., destroying the state of Israel), or even simply of slaughtering every Israeli. Hamas, by charter, deed, and statement, explicitly seeks the death of all Jews on earth.
First, lets look at the Hamas’ original 1988 charter, which makes no secret of it’s goal of worldwide genocide against the Jews.
This Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS), clarifies its picture, reveals its identity, outlines its stand, explains its aims, speaks about its hopes, and calls for its support, adoption and joining its ranks. Our struggle against the Jews is very great and very serious. It needs all sincere efforts. It is a step that inevitably should be followed by other steps. The Movement is but one squadron that should be supported by more and more squadrons from this vast Arab and Islamic world, until the enemy is vanquished and Allah’s victory is realised.
The struggle is not against Israelis or “Zionists,” it’s against Jews.
“The Day of Judgement will not come about until Moslems fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Moslems, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him. Only the Gharkad tree, (evidently a certain kind of tree) would not do that because it is one of the trees of the Jews.” (related by al-Bukhari and Moslem).
Note that those trees crying out for Jews to be killed are not limited to Palestine.
Israel, Judaism and Jews challenge Islam and the Moslem people. “May the cowards never sleep.”
The Islamic Resistance Movement consider itself to be the spearhead of the circle of struggle with world Zionism and a step on the road. The Movement adds its efforts to the efforts of all those who are active in the Palestinian arena. Arab and Islamic Peoples should augment by further steps on their part; Islamic groupings all over the Arab world should also do the same, since all of these are the best-equipped for the future role in the fight with the warmongering Jews.
Etc.
Hamas revised their charter in 2016 to cut down on the Jew hatred, but the die was already cast, and taqiyya (deception) is not just allowed in Islamic doctrine, but is obligatory in the struggle of jihad against Dar al Harb (i.e., the House of War against non-Muslims).
How about Fathi Hamad, the political leader of Hamas? “Seven million Palestinians outside, enough warming up, you have Jews with you in every place. You should attack every Jew possible in all the world and kill them.”
Or this journalist who interviewed several Hamas officials. “They never refer to Israelis, they always refer to the Jews. Their plan is to kill all the Jews. All the Jews are the ones they want to wipe out.”
This reclamation of Islamic dignity through the ultimate defeat of the Jews occupies a great deal of Hamas’s political thought, permeates its rhetoric and profoundly shapes its thinking about Israeli Jews and its strategy in facing Israel. Israel is more than a mere occupier or oppressor in this narrative, it is a rebellion against God and the divinely-ordained trajectory of history. And by showing Israelis in their weakness, the thinking goes, Israelis are somehow actually made weak. Redemption requires only the faith of its believers to be fulfilled, and seeing is believing.
The footage from Saturday, the snuff videos shared gleefully by Hamas supporters, including in some Western far-left circles, weren’t an aberration. Hamas gunmen didn’t get “carried away,” as some explained. They were the essence of the whole enterprise. They were Hamas’s basic message to Israelis: That they weren’t being killed and kidnapped just for tactical advantage in the struggle for Palestinian independence, but rather were being humiliated and dehumanized as traitors against God.
What other penalty can prescribed for literal treason against the will of God but death?
This is why Hamas and their jihadist fellow-travelers believe that every Jew everywhere must be exterminated.
Turns out Hamas was always doing what Israel and opponents of jihad terror accused them of doing: Operating out of hospitals to avoid being bombed (in violation of international law). I was already going to write about this when I saw that Jim Geraghty had already done the heavy lifting.
What would you like Israel to do about the Hamas operations under the Al-Shifa hospital complex and other hospitals in the Gaza Strip?
A lot of those currently demanding a cease-fire would likely answer, “Leave those operations alone.” That’s a good way to ensure that the threat of Hamas continues. This is the same dynamic as the proposal to deploy U.S. Naval hospital ships off the coast of the Gaza Strip to treat Palestinian children discussed yesterday. Anytime you declare, “Israel will not strike in this spot,” Hamas will move its forces and its equipment to that spot.
The decision before Israel is to either attack the Hamas targets underneath hospitals while attempting to avoid civilian casualties, or to leave the Hamas operations intact. Attack, and you run the risk of higher Palestinian civilian casualties, even greater outrage on the world stage, and even more propaganda victories for Hamas, painting the Israelis as cruel monsters. Hold back, and Hamas gets to keep more of its men and arms safely in place to fight another day and plot more massacres.
For those who wonder if Hamas really does operate underneath the Al-Shifa hospital, here’s an account from Taghreed El-Khodary and Ethan Bronner of the New York Times, back in 2008:
At Shifa Hospital on Monday, armed Hamas militants in civilian clothes roved the halls. Asked their function, they said they were providing security. But there was internal bloodletting under way.
In the fourth-floor orthopedic section, a woman in her late twenties asked a militant to let her see Saleh Hajoj, her 32-year-old husband. She was turned away and left the hospital. Fifteen minutes later, Hajoj was carried out of his room by young men pretending to transfer him to another hospital section. As he lay on the stretcher, he was shot in the left side of the head. A bit of brain emerged on the other side of his skull.
Hajoj, like five others who were killed at the hospital in this way in the previous 24 hours, was accused of collaboration with Israel. He had been in the central prison awaiting trial by Hamas judges, and when Israel destroyed the prison on Sunday he and the others were transferred to the hospital. But their trials were short-circuited.
Another account from El-Khodary in 2009 described a young Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighter demanding he be treated first, ahead of civilians, even if their injuries were more severe:
A car arrived with more patients. One was a 21-year-old man with shrapnel in his left leg who demanded quick treatment. He turned out to be a militant with Islamic Jihad. He was smiling a big smile.
“Hurry, I must get back so I can keep fighting,” he told the doctors.
He was told that there were more serious cases than his, that he needed to wait. But he insisted. “We are fighting the Israelis,” he said. “When we fire we run, but they hit back so fast. We run into the houses to get away.” He continued smiling.
“Why are you so happy?” this reporter asked. “Look around you.”
A girl who looked about 18 screamed as a surgeon removed shrapnel from her leg. An elderly man was soaked in blood. A baby a few weeks old and slightly wounded looked around helplessly. A man lay with parts of his brain coming out. His family wailed at his side.
“Don’t you see that these people are hurting?” the militant was asked.
“But I am from the people, too,” he said, his smile incandescent. “They lost their loved ones as martyrs. They should be happy. I want to be a martyr, too.”
Like everything else in the Gaza Strip, it appears that the hospital’s operations were intertwined with Hamas — a deliberate strategic choice to make the line between military operations and innocent civilians as blurry as possible.
So the left has known that Hamas was committing war crimes for decades, but was willing to ignore it in service of the holy cause of slaughtering Jews.
Here’s an Israeli soldier narrating what they found in a Gaza hospital, namely weapons and a prepared area for hostages.
Speaking of Al-Shifa hospital, there’s quite a lot of military activity happening there right now:
There should be no cease in Israeli operations until they’ve finished the tasking of killing or capturing every Hamas terrorist they can lay their hands on.
I didn’t intend to make this an All Mark Felton Weekend, but these came up in my feed, and I have friends as interested in aircraft as I am in tanks. So here are the number of surviving World War II fighters and bomber, and how many are still airworthy.
When we watched Twelve O’Clock High (which I highly recommend), we marveled that there were still enough B-17s around when they made the movie that you could crash some just to get it on film. Alas, that’s no longer the case…
To observe Veterans Day, here’s a Mark Felton piece on World War II veterans who not only became celebrities, but are still alive:
They are:
American actor William Daniels, most famous for St. Elsewhere and the voice of KITT in Knight Rider, but the roles I enjoyed him most for were in 1776 (playing John Adams) and The President’s Analyst, plus an appearance in Kolchak: The Night Stalker as that week’s Police Lieutenant Who Is Fed Up With Kolchak’s Crazy Questions. “Born in 1927, Daniels enlisted in the U.S. Army in 1945 and was stationed in Italy just after the war working as a DJ in an army radio station. William Daniels is currently 96 years.”
American low budget movie king Roger Corman. Most famous for cheap science fiction films and pretty good Edgar Allen Poe adaptations in the 1960s (I just watched The Raven this Halloween season, and it has Vincent Price, Boris Karloff, Peter Lorre and Jack Nicholson). But my favorite Corman film is The Intruder, which features William Shatner as a racist rabble-rouser in the South during desegregation, and which was filmed in the South during desegregation. The low budget is evident, but Shatner just burns off the screen. “Born in 1926, he enlisted in the V12 Navy College training program and served in the US Navy between 1944 and 1946. Roger Corman is currently 97 years old.”
Stanley Baxter, a British actor and comedian I am unfamiliar with.
He was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and began as a child actor on BBC radio’s Children’s Hour initially recruited as a Bevin Boy, that is a conscripted mine worker, towards the end of the war he was recruited into the Seaforth Highlanders, and with this unit went to India and then to the war in Burma. Being promoted to Corporal and acting as a headquarters company typist, he then wrangled a transfer to the British Army’s Combined Services Entertainment Unit, serving alongside other future British stars such as Kenneth Williams, actor Peter Vaughan, and director John Slesinger. For his war services, Baxter received the 1939 to 45 star, the Burma star, and the usual War medals. He is currently 97 years old.
American comedy legend Mel Brooks, justifiably famous for Blazing Saddles and Young Frankenstein, but also co-creator of Get Smart.
Born Melvin Kinsky in 1926, the son of Jewish immigrants to New York City, he started out as a drummer and comedy act with Sid Caesar before the war. In 1944, while in college, Brooks was sent to the US Army specialist training program at the Virginia Military Institute, and later inducted into the US Army. He received basic training as a radio operator and was sent to Europe in February 1945. He served in the campaigns following the Battle of the Bulge as a combat engineer with the 1104 Combat Engineer Battalion, and was part of teams clearing German booby traps and abandoned ordinance in towns in Western Germany, his specialism being the location of landmines. His unit also placed the first Bailey bridge over the Ruhr river, and would go on to build several bridges across the Rhine, serving through to May 1945 when they reached the Harz mountains following the end of World War II. Brooks joined special services as a comic, being promoted to Corporal, and ran the US Army’s entertainments in Wiesbaden in Germany. Brooks was himself honorably discharged in June 1946 as a Corporal. Mel Brooks is currently 97 years old.
Canadian Director Normal Jewison, most famous for In the Heat of the Night, Fiddler on the Roof and Moonstruck, but my favorite film of his is the original Rollerball.
Born in 1926 in Toronto of British immigrant parents, Jewison served in the Royal Canadian Navy between 1944 and 45. He was a signaler aboard a Canadian corvette escorting merchant ships up the East Coast from Maine to Newfoundland, from where the freighters and tankers would gathered to cross the Atlantic to Britain. Though German U-boats remained a serious threat until war’s end, he never saw any action, his only contact with the enemy being escorting German uboatman who had surrendered in May 1945. For his war service, Jewison received the 1939 to 45 star, the defense medal, the Canadian volunteer service medal and the war medal. Norman Jewison is currently 97 years old.
American acting and comedy legend Dick Van Dyke, famous for The Dick Van Dyke Show, Mary Poppins, etc.
Born in 1925 in West Plains, Missouri, he left school in his senior year to enlist in the United States Army Air Force, hoping to train as a pilot. But being underweight, Van Dyke instead became an army radio announcer, then transferred, like Mel Brooks, to the special services as a troop entertainer. Van Dyke did not serve overseas, and was discharged with the rank of Staff Sergeant in 1946, receiving the army Good Conduct Medal. Dick Van Dyke is currently 97 years old.
American actor Mike Nussbaum, with roles in Men in Black (the alien that owns the cat), Fatal Attraction, Field of Dreams, and House of Games. “Born to a Jewish family in Chicago in 1923 he served in the US Army in Europe in World War II. Assigned to General Dwight D. Eisenhower’s message center, which he headed and famously dispatched the official notification of Germany’s surrender in May 1945. Mike Nussbaum is 99 years old.
American TV producer and director Norman Lear, of All in the Family, Maude, The Jeffersons etc. fame, and was also a producer on The Princess Bride. (And speaking of Dick Van Dyke, Lear also produced and directed a movie he was in called Cold Turkey that I remember thinking was hilarious at the time, but I was pretty young…)
Born in New Haven Connecticut to Russian and Ukrainian Jewish parents, he enlisted in the United States Army Air Force in September 1942. He served in the Fifteenth Air Force in the Mediterranean theater as a radio operator and air gunner aboard Boeing B-17 flying Fortresses, completing 52 combat missions and reaching the rank of Technical Sergeant. His service earned, him amongst other honors, the Air Medal with Four Oakleaf Clusters, and he was discharged in 1945. Norman Lear is currently 101 years old.
Lear’s liberal politics are not to my taste, but we thank him, and all the other gentlemen on this list, for their service.
My Bloggy-Sense™ tells me that this is a better headline than “Recent developments in Israeli tunnel warfare technology.” Let’s dig in!
First, thanks to reader Howard for pointing out this piece on Israel’s sponge bomb (which may or may not exit).
Israeli forces are prepared to employ “sponge bombs” that produce quick-hardening foam to seal off tunnels used by terrorists in the Gaza Strip, according to a recent report. Though unconfirmed, there is some precedent for the use of devices that create hard or at least very sticky foam by military and other security forces.
The Telegraph newspaper in the United Kingdom published a story about the purported Israeli foam-dispensing ‘bombs’ on Wednesday. It is important to note up front that, at the time of writing, the Telegraph’s piece does not appear to cite any sources, on the record or anonymous, and explicitly says “the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] has not commented on the use” of these devices.
As described by the Telegraph, the devices contain a binary chemical mixture that only blends together when the device is activated. The system is reportedly small and light enough to be emplaced, or even thrown, by a single individual.
Israeli “soldiers were seen deploying the devices during exercises in 2021,” according to the Telegraph, but no further details or imagery are provided. “The [Israeli] army has set up a mock tunnel system at the Tze’Elim army base near the border with Gaza.”
Tze’Elim is publicly known to host a mock Palestinian village with an underground tunnel network specifically to help prepare IDF personnel for ground operations in places like Gaza. To this point, this training site is even nicknamed “Little Gaza.”
I tend to believe Israel probably has something along these lines, just because there are so many quick-drying foams used in the construction industry that it’s hardly a stretch to think that Israel has something like that for tunnel warfare. The piece also mentions the possibility of using “glue bombs” on enemy forces.
Israel also has specialized tunnel forces with dogs and drones.
Israel’s military has developed a range of specialist tunnel fighters including killer drones and attack dogs to take on Hamas’s huge underground network.
Officials on Tuesday revealed its forces attacked Hamas gunmen inside the vast tunnel network beneath the Palestinian enclave, estimated by some to rival in length London’s Tube network.
Specialist teams made up of the Oketz or “Sting” dog units and the Samur “Weasel” subterranean commandos have been training in a specially built tunnel complex in the Negev Desert to take on the 500 kilometres of the “Gaza metro” built by Hamas.
Defence analysts have disclosed that Israel has used ground-penetrating radar and gravity detectors to map out the spiderweb system precisely.
Snip.
Hamas has been building the labyrinth for almost a decade, with some tunnels dug up to 70 metres below ground, for storing weapons, fuel and food, but their destruction is vital for any Israeli success.
As a result, they have formed a force of combat engineers called the Yahalom “Diamond” that have trained to locate tunnels and either destroy them or allow for a “hard entry”.
If entry is required, then the Samur and Oketz units will drop into the entrances that would likely have been blown open, and enter the tunnels that are made of reinforced concrete and are 1.8 metres high and one metre wide.
Robots will be used ahead of any tunnel assault, with the Tel Aviv company Roboteam spending the last decade developing specialist unmanned ground vehicles for the operation.
This will include the small IRIS robot that soldiers call a “throwbot”, with its ability to drive down tunnels relaying pictures back to its operator, using specialist sensors to detect objects and people.
It is also understood that Israel has developed a robot similar to the US Marines’ Gladiator tactical tracked drone that has sensors and carries a 7.62mm squad automatic weapon.
The robots will also be able to use their sensors and equipment to find and potentially detonate booby-traps planted by Hamas.
Behind them will come the “Weasel” commandos, who are specially selected troops able to tolerate the enclosed and claustrophobic conditions. Israeli defence sources said they were usually introverted characters with the ability to keep a “psychological distance from the situation”.
Tunnel combat is also described as akin to underwater fighting because kit used on the surface, such as thermal imaging, or surveillance or navigation systems, will not function underground.
Defence analysts also believe the Israeli army could develop tactics used by Ukraine in its fight against Russia by deploying airborne drones inside the tunnels, some equipped with small bombs.
“Both sides will be attempting to surprise each other and they will have surprises up their sleeve,” said Brigadier Ben Barry, an urban warfare specialist at the IISS think tank.
“The Israelis also have advantages with the biggest urban training facility of any armed forces in the world training people to fight in tunnels but also using drones and robots to take the first hit. The Israelis have all sorts of technological gadgets.”
They also have specially trained military dogs in the Oketz canine unit, most likely led by the highly intelligent and aggressive Belgium Malinois favoured by British special forces.
Here’s a video that covers the Hamas tunnels, the tactics used against them, and even the sponge bomb:
Historically tunnel warfare has been one of the most nerve-wracking, dangerous and taxing forms of specialized warfare, from World War I to the tunnel rats of Cu Chi in the Vietnam War.
Israel has some of the best trained forces in the world, but they have their work cut out for them.
An important but less dramatic aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian War is just what effects the war and resulting sanctions are having on the Russian economy. It’s hard for outsiders to get a handle on just how badly the Russian economy is doing. Since Russia was a net grain and oil exporter before invading Ukraine, it’s not likely to have obvious shortages in food and fuel.
One economic proxy is exchange rates on the Russian ruble, which is now stuck right around 100 to the dollar. But as Joe Blogs explains, Russia has recently undertaken several actions that indicate the situation is worse than just the exchange rates would have you believe.
“The Russian authorities have now imposed additional currency controls, which restrict Western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and Euros. International companies that want to exit Russia now have to sell their assets in rubles, and if they insist on receiving foreign currency for their assets, they face delays or even losses on the sums that can be transferred abroad.” Obviously I have zero sympathy for any western company still doing business in Russia, as they should have extracted themselves shortly after Russia launched their illegal war of territorial aggression in 2022, but it’s hardly going to encourage the ones that remain to put more resources into their businesses there.
Russia first started slapping currency controls down when the ruble weakened in July, with various repatriation restrictions and limiting schemes. Also, businesses wanting to get their money out were forced to pay “a contribution to the Russian budget, which is deemed to be ‘voluntary’ but in reality is mandatory, which was recently raised from 10% to 15% of the total transaction value.” The line item on that should probably read “Vlad’s Protection Money.”
Plus: “The sale of any Russian assets must take place at a discount of at least 50%.” You lie down with jackals and you wake up with fleas.
Various other indignities visited upon foreign businesses doing Russia snipped because, really, screw those guys.
Then there are the foreign income controls:
On October 11 “President Putin signed a decree mandating the reintroduction of capital controls for an undisclosed list of 43 exporting firms. The controls will last for six months, and Russia has not published the list of which companies these measures will apply to. However, they are companies in the fuel, energy, metal, chemical, timber and grain industries. Starting from October the 16th, certain Russian exporters within 60 days from the moment of receiving funds are obliged to credit their accounts in Russian banks with no less than 80% of all foreign currency received in accordance with the conditions of their export contracts. They also required within two weeks to sell on the country’s domestic market no less than 90% of foreign currency revenues credited to their accounts at Russian banks.
“President Putin believes that this will solve the problems with the ruble, and stated there are reasons to believe that the ruble rate is fluctuating because foreign currency earnings are not being returned in sufficient volume to mobilize the money supply on the domestic market.” Or, and here’s an alternate theory, rubles are worthless because no one inside or outside the country wants to keep them.
“Twelve months ago, one US dollar was trading for 61 Russian rubles, to today it’s trading for 93, which represents a fall in value of more than 50% in the last year, which is an absolute disaster from a currency perspective. The long-term value of the ruble has declined significantly.”
“There is absolutely no way that the Kremlin is happy with an exchange rate of 93 to 1.”
“Let’s not forget that the current exchange rate has only been achieved after four interest rate rises over the last three months, which means that it’s doubled in a three month period.” Russia’s interest rate is currently at 15%, which is one of the highest in the world.
Had Russia not intervened, “the ruble [to dollar exchange rate] could have hit 120 or 130. So Russia is currently doing everything within its powers to maintain the value of the ruble. But even after all of that effort the ruble is trading at its worst level at any time in history” save that right after the Ukraine invasion.
With all those rules and declining ruble values, Russian companies have less and less money to spend in international markets, which demand hard currency.
Even though sanctions are leaky, Russia’s crashing economy means the ruble is worth less, and Russian companies will find it harder and harder to buy things (like computer chips) on the international market that requires hard currency. And remember that that BRICS currency idea is going nowhere.
Expect Russia’s economy to continue declining as long as Russia is still trying to occupy Ukraine.
For all that Democrats at the state and national level want to force adoption of them, electric cars are no panacea to solving the “climate change crisis” those same Democrats claim will kill us all.
Peter Zeihan explains why.
“A lot of major auto manufacturers are scaling down their plans to make electric vehicles. Ford and GM have both suspended, well, cancelled plans to build a couple new facilities for battery and EV assembly. No changes to their internal combustion engine vehicle plans.”
Tesla production is also slowing. “They’re going to suspend and maybe even cancel the plans for the gigafactory that they were going to be building in Mexico, although that’s very TBD.”
“From an environmental point of view most EVs are at best questionable.”
“The data that says they’re a slam dunk successes assumes that you’re building the EVs with a relatively clean energy mix and then recharging it with 100% green energy, and that happens exactly nowhere in the United States.”
“The cleanest state is California they are still 50% fossil fuel energy, and they lie about their statistics, because they say they don’t know what the mix is for the power that they’re importing from the rest of the country, which is something like a third of their total demand. And the stuff that comes, say, from the Phoenix area in Arizona to the LA Basin which is something like 10GW a day, which is more than most small countries, is 100% fossil fuel.”
“More importantly on the fabrication side, because there are so many more exotic materials and because energy processed to make those materials is so much more energy intensive, all of this work is done in China, and in most places it’s done with either soft coal or lignite.”
“You’re talking about an order of magnitude more carbon generated just to make these things in the first place compared to an IC [integrated circuit, AKA computer chips]. And that means that these things don’t break even on the carbon within a year. For most you’re talking about approaching 10 years or more.”
But Zeihan is leaving the most important variable out of this equation: The smug sense of satisfaction and moral superiority American leftists feel when driving these cars. Isn’t that worth all those extra coal plants?
Number 2: Materials. “These vehicles require an order of magnitude more stuff, more copper, more molybdenum, more lithium, obviously, more graphite. And the energy content required to put those in process is where most of the energy cost comes from.”
“If we’re going to convert the world’s vehicle fleets to these things, there’s just not enough of this stuff on the planet. I’m not saying that we can’t build on in time, but that time is measured in decades.”
“Supposedly we need 10x a much nickel on all the rest. So the stuff just isn’t there. So even if this was an environmental panacea, which it’s not, we would never be able to do it on a very short time frame. You’re talking a century.”
They’re also way more expensive. “This is not a vehicle that’s for most people.”
“And that’s before you consider little things like range anxiety. I’ve rented an EV. It’s real. There just aren’t enough charging stations.”
“EVs are building up on the lots and people just aren’t buying them without absolutely massive discounts and the discounts are now to the point that the whole industry is no longer profitable even with the subsidies that came in from the Inflation Reduction Act.”
“1% of the American vehicle Fleet to EVs, and it looks like we may be very close close to the peak.”
Not every one of his points hits home (there are, in fact, lots of overpriced gas powered cars and trucks sitting on dealers lots, as a lot of YouTube channels will show you), but he’s mostly correct.
Our conservative estimate is that the average EV accrues $48,698 in subsidies and $4,569 in extra charging and electricity costs over a 10-year period, for a total cost of $53,267, or $16.12 per equivalent gallon of gasoline. Without increased and sustained government favors, EVs will remain more expensive than ICEVs for
many years to come. Hence why, even with these subsidies, EVs have been challenging for dealers to sell and why basic economic realities indicate that the Biden administration’s dream of achieving 100% EVs by 2040 will never become a reality.
Commies ruin everything, including buildings. Here’s the story of a French suburb of Paris that went from failing to thriving after getting rid of their ugly commie architecture.
“This town did the impossible! It was able to transform itself from a gloomy dispirited town, dominated by decaying concrete flats into a thriving, friendly and beautiful community.”
“That town is Le Plessis-Robinson. This municipality is home to around 30,000 inhabitants. When you walk it’s center, you might not notice what is so special about this place. It looks like a perfectly ordinary, charming French town, until you learn that everything you see is recently built.”
“After World War II, the local Communist party wins the elections. and becomes the ruling party of Le Plessis-Robinson for over 40 years. During those years, the town is further expanded with a modernist urban scheme.” Translation: Lots of ugly, Brutalist concrete.
“There’s a lot of social housing, but the concentration of marginalized groups has its toll.” In the French context, I’m guessing “marginalized groups” means unassimilated Muslims from French North Africa.
“The town becomes more sinister, filled with rubbish, petty crime and poverty. At some point, 2/3rd of the buildings are in a bad state. They are energy inefficient, vandalised and badly maintained. Companies are closing down, and problems related to poverty are rising.”
“In 1989, Le Plessis-Robinson is about to become one of Paris’ problematic banlieues. Only a miracle can possibly prevent this town’s further slide into decay. And boy, does a miracle happen. The election of 1989 changes everything. Philippe Pemezec, a local politician belonging to the party “Les Républicains”, wins the election.
“He promptly sets out to regenerate the municipality. In doing so, he takes an unconventional method: To beautify the city, and to improve the town on all fronts. Instead of the harsh, brutal and grey blocks that dominate the city, Pemezec wants a type of architecture that people can connect with. Instead of grey concrete, there would be color.”
“The town would have a vibrant, mixed use center with lively streets, creating more jobs, by planning commercial spaces for local businesses, but also by offering the peace of beautiful parks, gardens and fountains. Le Plessis-Robinson would have a soul again.”
“François Spoerry [is the] main architect, who designs a masterplan. Spoerry is also the supervisor who tests all the designs made by other architects. In this case, only traditional and classical architects are attracted, which is rare.” In other woods, beautiful, classic designs, not ugly modern crap.
The revamp public (“social”) housing. Also: “Owner occupied homes are introduced as well, to achieve a greater, more natural mix in social- and income classes.” Funny how much better people treat things when they own it.
“A program is introduced to give social housing tenants the chance to become a homeowner, by offering them to buy a new home under favorable terms.” Shades of Jack Kemp!
“At that point, the housing supply of Le Plessis-Robinson consists of 72% social housing. These extremely high concentrations of social housing in one location are often not sustainable and have been linked to various social and economic problems.” You don’t say.
I don’t agree with every point of the video, and there are lots of lefty planning buzzwords (“new urbanism,” “gentrification” etc.), but the video makes clear that the Le Plessis-Robinson of today is clearly much more beautiful and livable than the concrete commie slum Pemezec was faced with in 1989.
I’ve long documented the failures of California’s still unbuilt high speed rail, and now a video from Simon Whistler (yeah, him) covers a similar doomed British high speed rail project:
“Even in a country used to paying absurd prices for everything from houses to a pint of beer, it was still a pretty eye-watering figure. After initially being projected to cost under £40 billion in 2012, Britain’s second high-speed rail project, HS2, was recently calculated to be facing a price tag closer to £100 billion.”
“Just the first phase alone the 34 miles connecting London and Birmingham is in danger of becoming one of the most expensive railways ever built.”
It was originally supposed to pay for itself by offering high speed connections between London and three English industrial cities in the north: Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. But ballooning costs forced the cancellation of those two line extensions.
“All rationale for HS2 vanished, leaving the UK with a multi-billion pound bill just to slightly reduce travel time between London and Birmingham.”
HS1 was the 62 mile high speed rail line from London to the channel tunnel. It only cost three times the estimated price.
One reason it was considered a success: “It had added significant extra capacity to commuter lines running into London from Kent, as much as 40% extra in peak times.”
In the dying days Gordon Brown’s Labor government in 2010, Transport Secretary and rail freak Lord Adonis published a white paper outlining his Utopian high speed rail vision for Britain. Unfortunately, incoming conservative George Osborne had a soft spot for flashy infrastructure projects.
“Neither Adonis nor Osborne nor anybody else could have envisaged a budget that would soon balloon wildly out of control.” Actually, I suspect anyone familiar with the many failures of high speed rail projects in the U.S. could indeed have envisaged it.
By 2015 it was up to £55 billion.
By 2019 it was £71 billion, or over £22,000 for every UK household.
After 2020 and Flu Manchu, it was over £100 billion, and PM Rishi Sunak pulled the plug on everything but the London to Birmingham stretch, which was still going to cost £53 billion, or £396 million per mile.
“The fast train from Euston Station to Birmingham New Street takes around 1 hour and 40 minutes. All H2 will do will shave 25 to 35 minutes off that.”
All infrastructure projects in the UK cost more than their equivalents in continental Europe. “The insane costs associated with planning applications in the UK, something that you could see in the proposed London Themes Crossing, which recently spent £267 million just on planning paperwork.”
There’s a ton of NIMBYism along the route, forcing them to spend billions building rail tunnels despite it being perfectly feasible to build it overland.
Between London and Birmingham lies the sort of gentile English landscape that people who’ve never visited the UK believe the whole country looks like, a green swath of rolling hills, country lanes and posh blokes wearing tweed. Unfortunately, it turns out that the sort of people who live in this landscape hate the idea of London politicians plonking a fancy new train line right in the middle of it.
“Some countries like Japan can do tunneling at a reasonable cost. The UK is not among that group.”
Then there’s the well-paid army of white collar consultants, which will be familiar to any observer of California’s high speed rail project. “Among them were 40 employees paid more than £150,000 a year, and chief executives with higher salaries than any other public official in Britain.” Nice work if you can get it.
“In July of 20123 the government’s own infrastructure watchdog branded HS2 as unachievable saying it could not be delivered in its current form.”
The kicker: HS2 may never make it to central London, as building there is too expensive. “Rather than terminating at Euston Station in central London, HS2 would now end at Old Oak Common,” a suburban station, where they’re expected to catch local connections. “The new line will cost of tens of billions get you from Birmingham to central London less quickly than you can do it at the moment.”
But they’ve already spent £40 million for two top-of-the-line boring machines from Germany to dig the Old Oak Common to Euston segment. Current plans are to bury them in hope they might be used later.
“Hearing about stuff like this, it is tempting to wonder if, just maybe, the UK shouldn’t have listened to the results of the 2006 independent review into high speed rail written by Rod Edington before HS1 was even finished it concluded that highspeed rail simply isn’t worth it in Britain.”
“The money would be better spent on less sexy improvements, like line electrification and improving local bus services.”
And we all know why they’d never go that route: There simply aren’t enough opportunities for bureaucratic empire building and graft…
