“Smart rifle” technology seems to have finally arrived in the form of an “AI” enhanced scope that still requires you to pull the trigger, but picks the optimal time to actually fire to take out drones.
“High-tech, often AI powered scopes are something every major military has been working on for the past few years with more failures than successes. The [Smash] 2000L is arguably the most developed such system in existence. However, given the laughably poor records high-tech scopes have, it’s valid to ask if this new system currently in the process of testing and adoption with the US Marine Corps, the UK, Australia, and other countries, is actually worth the hype.”
It only works against small drones because, you know, rifle. “The drones of the Smash 2000L system are designed to take out a roughly the size of a DJI Mavic drone, a system used by both Ukraine and Russia before DJI blocked all exports to both countries, after which both sides continue to produce very similar drones domestically. This drone and other comparable designs are actually among the most used drones in the war, with either side launching around 10,000 of them every single month. That makes them the exact type of threat the Smash 2000L was designed to counter.”
“The Mavic E3 drone measures [roughly] 14 by 11 inches with a height of barely [4] inches. This makes it roughly the size of a large Domino’s pizza.”
“They’re capable of reaching and exceeding speeds of roughly 50 [miles] an hour. Some of them are even capable of doubling that.”
“Drones rarely operate individually. Swarm attacks are most effective as they guarantee results.”
“From February 2022 to today, Ukraine went from domestically producing a total of about 3,000 drones per year to being capable of producing 5 million of them. Russian figures are similar at around 3 and a half million drones a year.” I would like to know where these figures are coming from.
“The obvious solution is just jamming the living shit out of everything. Although autonomous drones are gaining ground in warfare nowadays, most drones are still operated in real time by an operator. That operator communicates with the drone via a radio link and by jamming that link, essentially flooding it with radio frequency, the drone is cut off from its operator. The jammers themselves exist in the form of rifles. One of which famously made an appearance at the funeral of Pope Francis in 2025, the
very first time such a weapon was fielded at a papal funeral.”
Skipping over the jamming/fiber optic drone arms race we’ve covered before.
“Large and small surface-to-air missiles were launched, depending on the size of the approaching drone, and even other drones were used to take down drones.”
“However, the last ditch option for a soldier to use is their own primary firearm. And this is exceptionally difficult for a number of reasons. To take down a drone with their own assault rifle, a soldier who is high on adrenaline and reasonably afraid for their safety, has to hit a target roughly the size of a volleyball at a distance of between 50 and 200 meters as it buzzes around erratically at highway speeds. And they have to do that with a projectile that’s 5.56 or 7.62 mm in diameter.
“Because of this, both Russian and Ukrainian infantry squads have adopted shotguns as their go-to last ditch anti-drone firearm.”
“Shotguns have proven to be much more effective against drones as a last resort, which is why some manufacturers like Benelli have developed anti-drone shotguns with special ammunition.”
“Ukraine has also developed a special 5.56 anti-drone rounds that fires several sub projectiles instead of a solid bullet. The soldier still needs to fire five or six rounds while tracking the target, but the round is far more effective than standard ammunition because of its shotgun principle.”
The main problem is that shooting at drones that are trying to kill you is highly stressful, and accuracy suffers. “Aiming perfectly in such a stressful scenario is just borderline impossible, no matter how accurate you are. And this, of course, is where the Smash 2000L comes in.”
“The idea behind Smash is very simple. Turn every soldier into a sharpshooter. Smash is essentially a very advanced scope that can be installed on most firearms, and it’s allegedly capable of hitting targets, even very small moving targets like drones, with a 95% hit probability. For comparison, experienced shooters using red dot sites at a distance of about 100 m average a 20% hit rate.”
“With a Smash 2000L, even trainees average an 80% hit rate, with experienced shooters reaching the aforementioned 95%. Which is really pretty impressive.”
“Smash consists of a digital camera with an attached display that’s seen by the shooter, a trigger guard, and most importantly, a computer. That computer does all the work. It locks onto a target, analyzes its speed, heading, distance, and environmental conditions such as wind and humidity to estimate the best time for a soldier to take a shot. When it locks onto a target, Smash tracks it until it calculates the best time to shoot.”
“As long as the computer estimates that the hit probability is low, it will block the trigger using the trigger guard. The shooter presses their finger against the trigger, even though it’s blocked. And when the shooter takes aim at the very specific spot on the target, which the computer deems the highest hit probability spot, the computer unlocks the trigger guard, the trigger is pulled and a drone is shot out of the sky.”
“The shooter can also wait for the computer to unblock the trigger before pulling it. But the high hit probability time window is of course very short when it comes to fast flying drones. That’s why it’s easier for the shooter to keep pressing the trigger the whole time and simply wait for the computer to unblock it at the appropriate moment.”
“When testing in the United States, Smash took down loitering drones surprisingly casually. Fast moving drones are likely going to be more difficult, but certainly not impossible and certainly much easier to hit with Smash than without it.”
“The system can also be used to eliminate ground targets such as other infantry troops, and even more easily at that. In that mode, it’s accurate up to 300 m or close to 1,000 ft during the day, while the small drone elimination mode is accurate up to 100 m or around 300 ft in both day and night.”
“Aside from just destroying small drones, Smash is also marketed as being capable of destroying micro drones. These drones are usually used for reconnaissance, not direct attacks, and they’re sometimes so small that they can fit in the palm of your hand.” Like the super-tiny, super-expensive Black Hornet drone.
“The Smash system itself can also fit in the palm of your hand. It weighs 740 g or 26 oz and is smaller than most magnification scopes, with a battery capable of running for 72 hours before needing recharging.”
“Smash is a line of sight system, which means that you have to be able to see the enemy for it to track the enemy. That means a couple of things. For one, you need to expose yourself at least a little bit for Smash to do its job. And secondly, Smash can’t track an enemy behind cover. It can’t see through walls. This also means it’s impossible for the shooter to aim from thick brush, for example, as there’s no way for Smash to get around that.”
“With this in mind, Smart Shooter came up with an addition to the Smash 2000L in the shape of the Smash Hopper 5000, a remote control weapon station, and another thing with a fantastic, very 1990scoded name. A soldier who prefers not to expose themselves to the enemy can mount their rifle with its 2000L system attached on the Hopper 5000 and control it from the safety of cover.”
“The system weighs a substantial 25 kilos or 55 lbs. It’s clunky, takes a while to set up, and it can never have the maneuverability of a soldier.”
“Does the Smash 2000L completely solve the drone problem? No, absolutely not. But it is a step in the right direction, isn’t it? Accuracy and speed of aiming are the biggest hurdles an infantryman has to tackle when shooting down a drone with their firearm. And Smash is essentially just a
system that does that job much more accurately and almost instantly.”
The IDF tried it with only one rifleman per squad. First problem? “Blue-on-blue incidents.”
“At the time of its introduction, the system could not tell the difference between friendly and enemy combatants.”
“Aside from the IDF, the Smash 2000L was purchased by the US primarily to be used by the Marine Corps, as well as the Netherlands, India, Germany, and the United Kingdom.”
“The Israeli manufacturer has since secured a $10.7 million contract with the US Army, making it the second service branch to join the program.
All well and good, but there were many previous “smart” scopes that didn’t work out.”
“Another one of those optic systems that came out of Israel is Arcus, an acronym for Assault Rifle Combat Application, developed by Elbert Systems. The system consists of an eyepiece that the operator attaches to their helmet and wears at all times. The second part is installed on the rifle, essentially acting as an extension of the operator’s eye, providing a live feed from the gun’s point of view.”
“Arcus is capable of recognizing the human body shape and marking the target on the operator’s eyepiece. It can easily detect motion. It provides the operator with a range estimation, and the feed is transmitted to command headquarters at the same time, allowing everyone to see what the operator sees.” Shades of “network-centric warfare.”
“The system also controls fire in a similar way to the Smash 2000L and improves accuracy in the field. It even provides the operator with a built-in compass that essentially allows them to navigate without having to constantly check a map or GPS. The two modes of operation, thermal or electrooptic, allow the operator to use the system in both daytime and nighttime. I mean, it even has a shot counter to let the operator know when they’re low on ammo, which is very video game-esque. It is an absolutely perfect solution for a lot of real problems that infantrymen truly do face, and it could change the way the wars are fought.”
“And yet, nobody’s using it. Not even Israel is using it, let alone any other military. Five years after presenting Arcus and no one has even tried adopting it, with its biggest accomplishment so far being just reminding everyone of the target tracking system from Aliens.”
“The story is not much more positive with the United States’s next generation squad weapon program, which includes the XM157 fire control system.”
“When it comes to the XM157, the test results are disappointing. During testing in 2024, the fire control system received negative reviews from soldiers who used it. To be more specific, the 2024 report says that quote, “The XM7 with mounted XM157 demonstrated a low probability of completing one 72-hour wartime mission without incurring a critical failure.” Is it Windows based?
“It seems like after years of hyping up the next fire control system, the scope has simply gone missing and we’re not going to see it fielded anytime soon because it’s simply not reliable.”
Skipping over the Russian example, since they can’t even get their SAM systems to work right.
“So when we draw the line under AI assisted high-tech scopes,the result is not proportional to the hype surrounding them. Russia’s not using them. The US Army’s not using them, in spite of really really wanting to spend a ton of money promoting them in the news. And even Israel, which has been developing several types of these scopes, is only kind of using them, nowhere close to issuing them across the board to the entirety of the IDF. And this brings us the most obvious question that we’ve been building to this entire video. Are these devices, which are hailed in the media as the next big thing that’s going to revolutionize the way wars are fought, just an endless money pit?”
“Even if scopes such as the XM157 on the Smash 2000L were perfected tomorrow and all their software glitches and battery issues were ironed out, there are still three main issues regarding high-tech optics that are keeping them from becoming the norm.”
“The first two problems relate to doctrine. Over-reliance on technology can only take a soldier or a unit a certain distance before achieving the adverse effect and nullifying their fighting capabilities with old school equipment. At the same time, decision-making tools cannot be blindly trusted. Taking the Smash 2000 as a direct example, what happens if infantrymen start relying on AI to do the aiming and trigger pulling jobs for them too much? Well, the result is that a soldier is demoted from a shooting combatant to somebody who just broadly handles a weapon and points it in roughly the right direction, with the most important part of the job being carried out by the fire control system.” Given current U.S./NATO/Israeli doctrine, I don’t see this as a problem anytime soon.
I’m cutting out a lot of Whistler’s “whatbouts,” as I assume a competent system will allow switchback to manual targeting. Indeed, he reaches much the same conclusion. “Using traditional scopes or iron sights will remain the norm in doctrine, and AI powered scopes will be used sparingly, mostly for specialized tasks such as taking down drones or targets that are particularly difficult for a traditional optic to get an angle on.”
His next point is that sea-based automatic systems still make mistakes as well, and still produce friendly fire incidents.
His conclusion: “It is easy to see why high-tech optics will never fully replace the Mark1 eyeball. They will, mind you, be introduced in huge numbers, and military forces will most definitely find use for them, such as taking down anti-infantry drones, for example, but it’s extremely unlikely that they will become the standard infantry fire control system anytime soon.”
He may be right, but possibly not for the reasons he thinks, namely that ground-based drones will probably take over more and more (but not all) infantry-based functions as those are further developed, though I doubt they will entirely replace infantry (AKA, the Queen of Battle) any time soon.
I just want to note that these wonderscopes are not really AI as we’ve come to understand it, they are merely souped-up, shrunk-down targeting computers that we’ve had for a while. There’s no theoretical reason they can’t, it’s a question of when the system crosses the threshold of cost-effectiveness.
More Iran War spin cycle, Ukraine hits more oil refineries and Wildberries, more welfare state fraud, more Fauci follies, more Democrats behaving badly, and one anime lover does something really, really stupid.
It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
(Note: Somehow an unfinished version of this got published and one of Bluehost’s little timeouts temporarily prevented me from unpublishing it…)
I should have a link on Iran here, but as far as I can tell it’s the same cycle: 1. Iran attacks neighbors or a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, 2. U.S. pounds the snot out of them, 3. President Trump announces we’re close to a deal with Iran, 4. Iran announces usual lies (deal gives them complete control over the strait, U.S. promises to hand them a big pile of money, President Trump promises to pray to Mecca five times a day, etc.). Set spin cycle to repeat next week.
Why go to war with Iran now? When we have so many problems to solve — still — at home, and with the midterms looming?
If you just said “Because Israel” go and sit down. No, sit ALL THE WAY DOWN. And stay there, quietly, while the adults talk. You’ve been sold a fable by people who would love to split up that alliance in order to destroy both countries piecemeal. And yes, a lot of the people in this country you trust are in the pay of those people or alternately truly vulnerable to manipulation.
Yes, Israel is at war and has been at war. Not out of some desire of being a local hegemon — after all, they gave back a lot of territory in the early 2000s in the hope of buying peace for their people for all the good it did them — but because they would like to survive. And even then, they were soft-handed to the point of insanity until they got the wake up call of 10/7. Not responding to that wake up call would have been suicidal. Apparently they are not that. This makes them neither an evil scheming nation nor manipulators of US politics. Go sit all the way down, and think shame you allowed the likes of China and Russia and dissatisfied Arab elements (now their leadership is becoming marginally saner) to manipulate you.
However, our war with Iran has nothing to do with Israel except insofar as Israel has provided able support in it, taking down the “Hamas fighters” Iran would have sent against us when we moved against Iran.
And if you think that Trump just up one morning and decided to go to war with Iran because he’s just that crazy, you have the president completely wrong. He had a public persona that is a little unpredictable. This I think is intentional just as I think Reagan’s “the bombing will now begin” was “accidentally open mike.” If you believe that, I have some bridges to sell you. They might be underwater, but great property.
Trump’s philosophy of government is “Make money, not war.” And I don’t mean making money for himself, though setting the US as the leader of the economic world definitely will end up in his children and grandchildren being richer. And ours too, think on. What I mean is that he uses money the way other presidents used war. He makes it profitable to be on good terms with the US, rather than beating people into not hurting us. By and large, it works.
Until you come to something like Iran. An “Islamic Republic” established with heavy propping by the USSR and still used as a proxy by Russia (and China. And every bad actor who wanted to use them.)
None of which would be an immediate problem, necessitating war. The world is full of crazy little countries, armed to the teeth and with evil intentions towards everyone starting with their own people.
Except for three things: 1- Iran’s evil intent is real and proactive. They declared war on us (And yes, Israel, but remember Israel is “little Satan” to our “Big Satan.”) They’re not just squatting on their territory, murdering their own people and muttering “touch me and you’ll die.” They actively want to eliminate us. (And Israel, but honestly, mostly us.) They believe a final, massive war, will bring about their end times and paradise for the faithful. And they are, yes, sincerely religious. At least the leadership. 2-They either had a nuke, or were very close to having one, and as we have learned through their bombing every one and their cousins, they actually and for real had delivery means. To the US? who knows? And anyway, with a nuke and open borders, there are many means of delivery. 3- Pallets of cash given to them by Obama, which greatly accelerated the nuclear program. Which we supposedly have maybe thoroughly degraded. Maybe. Apparently the terrain and capacity of the Iranians…. it’s difficult to ascertain that, or to be sure they won’t be up to their games next week absent thorough regime change.
In other words, our war with Iran right now is very simple: Because the enemy gets a vote. And so do others who would love to be the enemy if we give them an opening and who are now at BEST “adversaries”.
Because if we give in to the “peace at all costs” people we’ll likely go back in a year or two. And if two who knows who’ll be in charge or what they’ll use “war time emergency” to do. Remember the covidiocy?
Now imagine that we have Kamala, or G-d forbid AOC in charge when Iran hits NYC or Chicago, or Denver, or any of our big cities. Or three or four of them.
Imagine millions dead, and the US suddenly on a war footing. Imagine what a “Democratic socialist” would do in an environment 10 times what the post 9/11 fervor was, when speaking out against war is political and perhaps physical suicide. Or, you know, you don’t have to imagine. Go and study the unvarnished presidencies of Woodrow Wilson or FDR and you’ll KNOW.
Beyond the fact that China is running out of time to make with aggression. Their demographics don’t support a long wait to go to war with us. They must do it soon. But to do it now would be suicide. To do it after Iran hits us with a nuke and we’re in disarray (particularly, if G-d forbid we have a Democrat in charge.) … golden opportunity. (And don’t tell me there’s no chance of a democrat in 2028. The right is riven by discord being sown by enemies domestic and foreign, and a lot of duckies on the right fall for it every single time.)
THAT is why we are at war with Iran now. And why Trump is doing it (he said he couldn’t risk a president he couldn’t be sure of facing this, remember?) right now, regardless of political price. Because undoing the damage that Obama wrought is essential if we are to thrive or even — just — to survive as a nation.
The DOJ Fraud Division, U.S. Attorney’s Office, and Pennsylvania Attorney General today announced criminal charges against 19 defendants, including owners and employees of home care companies, for their alleged participation in various fraud schemes involving over four million dollars in claims to Medicare and Medicaid.
The Pennsylvania Attorney General also announced a plea agreement involving the final defendant in a previously-charged 21 defendant case involving over $1.7 million in claims.
Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, U.S. Attorney David Metcalf for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, and senior federal and state officials hold a press conference announcing a significant health care fraud takedown and a new Anti-Fraud Initiative in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.
Commie Jihadi wins. “Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. With 99% of the votes counted, El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5% (14,893 votes).”
The Associated Press called the Michigan Democratic primary for socialist and anti-Israel candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
With 99% of the votes counted, El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5% (14,893 votes).
El-Sayed’s victory is a major defeat for the Democratic establishment.
Members of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) or endorsed by the socialists have won House primaries in Colorado and New York. Most Democrats brushed aside concerns that the socialists have started taking over the party despite those victories.
Will the Democrat party change its position now that El-Sayed won a statewide primary?
El-Sayed loves to hang out with far-left streamer Hasan Piker, who thinks America deserved 9/11.
The socialist claimed he never said he wanted to defund the police, but CNN dug up a 2020 interview where he said, “I believe we do need to defund the police.” People even discovered El-Sayed deleting past social media posts with anti-police rhetoric.
He also holds the usual socialist ideas: High taxes, Medicare for All, abolish ICE, open borders, etc.
Of course, El-Sayed hates Israel and AIPAC. He admitted that he struggles “with the question of whether Israel should exist as a Jewish state.”
El-Sayed wouldn’t say anything about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death because many Muslims in the state are sad.
Given that this and many other clips of El-Sayed have gone viral since he won the primary earlier this week, it might be dawning on Piker that the Islamic vote in Dearborn isn’t going to be enough to carry a statewide election.
Today on X, he was furious again, but this time in his attempt to backpedal from one of his most infamous statements: that America ‘deserved’ 9/11.
this is unbelievably disingenuous, I'VE personally apologized for the words that i used BACK IN 2019. every candidate i've appeared alongside has done this. we all know this is a cynical way to justify associating the 1st muslim senate candidate with "islamic style terrorism" https://t.co/PqCAgXPJbw
Oh yes, because 2019 was so long ago, and saying that “America deserved 9/11” was so uncontroversial back in those dim, misty days of 2019. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
Meta fined $567 million for harming the mental health of kids. And that was just in New Mexico…
“Huge Drone Strike on Petrochemical Plant and Ufa Oil Refinery: Huge Fire. [I]n Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, a massive fire is seen in the industrial zone of Nizhnekamskneftekhim after an explosion, probably due to a system overload after a series of UAV attacks on the industrial zone. ”
The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee on Thursday advanced a resolution to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress.
The eight-to-five party line vote came in response to Fauci repeatedly invoking his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination at a hearing last week to avoid Republicans’ questions regarding diary entries previously released by the committee. Those documents revealed the former head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases gave the lab-leak hypothesis for the origin of the coronavirus more credit in private than he did in public at the beginning of the pandemic.
Something is at war with us, us being regular citizens who want things to work and to be left alone. We’re slow to react because we think in terms of nations. Our enemies are mafias that wear governments like a cloak to defeat our eyes and fly our flags to disarm our minds. So I think the way to think about Anthony Fauci sitting there in front of this committee today is we are governed by mafias. He is a made man. I think he’s just clearly a made man. And that means we don’t have the ability to touch him.”
This could get spicy: “Paxton Investigates Financial Ties Behind Childhood Vaccine Recommendations. The attorney general is seeking information about how the nation’s largest pediatric group develops its vaccine guidance.”
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is investigating how a pediatricians’ association determines its vaccine recommendations and whether financial incentives have influenced its guidance.
Founded in 1930, the American Academy of Pediatrics has helped shape childhood vaccination recommendations nationwide and has worked with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on its childhood vaccine schedule since 1995.
“If the American Academy of Pediatrics is giving medical guidance that is fueled by financial incentives, we will expose and put an end to this unlawful behavior,” Paxton said.
Earlier this year, Paxton launched investigations into multiple vaccine providers, examining whether they failed to disclose bonuses and other financial benefits tied to the number of vaccines administered.
He also accused pediatricians of denying care based on vaccination status and attaching physicians’ wages or employment to vaccine quotas.
Nearly three years after the October 7 massacre, the Israeli military and security forces continue to hunt down and eliminate the terrorists responsible. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) scored major operational success over the weekend, taking out several senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists involved in the attack.
The IDF, supported by the Shin Bet security agency, killed a commander of Hamas’s Nukhba terrorist force who invaded Israel on October 7, 2023. A strike in central Gaza “eliminated the terrorist Abdallah Adnan Taha Abu al-Tayf, a Nukhba commander in Hamas’ military wing,” the IDF announced. “The terrorist infiltrated Israeli territory during the October 7th Massacre. Throughout the war, he actively participated in combat against IDF troops.”
In a separate strike, the “IDF eliminated the terrorist Jalal Tsubeih, a commander in the Daraj Tuffah Battalion of Hamas’ military wing,” the military disclosed in the same statement.
An October 7 hostage taker and commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) Central Gaza Brigade was also killed in a recent Israeli strike, the IDF revealed on Monday.
The slain terrorist, Mahmoud Fatair, kidnapped 19-year-old Rom Braslavski. Rom was tortured and sexually assaulted by PJI terrorists during his long captivity. According to the BBC in November 2025, he “was sexually assaulted during his two years in captivity in Gaza.”
TPPF: “Flock Cameras Are An Assault On Your Constitutional Freedoms.”
Texans have a special way of dealing with infringements on privacy and the freedoms we enjoy.
Unregistered drones surveying our properties out in the sticks? That’s what the 12-gauge home defense system is for. Red light cameras that often prioritize revenue and control over public safety? The Texas legislature passed a law to ban that. Waiting for a glacially slow U.S. Congress to pass a Digital Bill of Rights? Federalism makes clear we had to take matters into our own hands.
Clearly, Texans understand that privacy is a fundamental prerequisite to being free—and that’s on both sides of the aisle. Polling conducted by my organization, the Texas Public Policy Foundation, suggests 9 out of 10 Texans believe as much. So it comes as no surprise that ire over Flock and similar Automated License Plate Readers (ALPRs) is shared by activists and advocates on both sides of the aisle.
And it also means the Texas Legislature will almost certainly do something about it next session.
ALPRs are not a new concept. Like more than one surveillance program, it began as an effort to combat terrorism, providing a novel method that allowed law enforcement to forego visual inspection and the time-consuming process of obtaining warrants and registration information. American police departments began using rudimentary ALPRs in the 2000s, arguing they “enhance their enforcement and investigative capabilities…[and] expedite the tedious and time-consuming process of comparing vehicle license plates with vehicles of interest.”
Whether unsophisticated ALPRs in the early days were a worthwhile investment is up for debate.
Proponents of Flock will point to the long history of this technology’s existence as reason to not fret over the current political landscape, but I’m not interested in that red herring. The reality is that technological shifts from simple contrast algorithms to advanced AI, pixelated cameras to high resolution photos that can capture clear shots in all conditions, and wide-angle lenses that can capture four or more times the number of lanes and cars as older cameras, have given rise to the narrative of mass surveillance.
To put into plain English, a police force in New York once boasted of capturing the license plates of 10,000 vehicles in a day; whereas a 2020 California state auditor report revealed that Sacramento’s Police Department recorded 24 times that amount, with close to 250,000 photos captured daily.
Proponents will quickly assert that these cameras only capture license plates, vehicle characteristics, distinguishing features (bumper stickers and license plate frames), and time and direction. But much like with brokers harvesting and selling your online data, it is not the individual data point has inherent value. It’s the fact that there is a stunning arsenal of these data-siphoning cameras across the nation, connecting all of those data points to generate a larger, far more invasive picture than a single snapshot in time. And this is precisely why there has been a well-documented cadre of police officers making use of this database to monitor their wives, exes, or random strangers.
As author and researcher Matthew Crawford puts it in reference to digital surveillance writ large, “The appeal, surely lies in not having to do things that we normally do for ourselves. The convenience may be worth the price; that’s for each of us to decide. But to do so with open eyes, one has to understand what the price is.”
If we are relying on an opaque, cherry-picked narrative of what personal information ALPRs can capture, how it is stored, the motive for retaining certain data, and whom it is ultimately sold or transferred to, we can’t possibly be informed enough to know the price of “enhanced safety.” Even worse, none of us even clicked “accept” to the terms of service while driving down I-35. So not only do we not know the price, we have no say in the matter.
“NY Socialist Can’t Pay Rent, Wants to Write State Budget.”
New York Socialist Brian Romero has not yet reached Albany, but he has already launched his first public spending initiative: covering his own rent.
Romero, the Democratic nominee for New York’s 34th Assembly District, launched a GoFundMe asking supporters to cover his rent and groceries while he waits to take office. The campaign sought $2,000 and collected more than $1,000 from 13 donors before disappearing Friday.
The timing was apparently a coincidence. Romero pulled the fundraiser shortly after the New York Post started asking questions.
Romero is not exactly facing a difficult general election. He won 66 percent of the Democratic primary vote, and Republicans did not bother fielding a candidate in a deep-blue Queens district. Once sworn in, he will collect a $142,000 annual salary plus a $203 daily allowance while the Assembly is in session.
But first, socialism needed a little crowdfunding.
“Now, defenders are embracing the prompt injection, too. ‘Context bombing’ tricks hacking agents into shutting down before they can do harm.'”
Prompt injections, the malicious commands attackers embed into content to entice large language models to follow them, have been attackers’ go-to tool for turning AI platforms against their users. A well-phrased command sneaked into an email or calendar invitation is often all it takes to cause the LLM to exfiltrate sensitive data or follow other harmful actions.
Now, defenders are embracing the prompt injection, too.
Researchers from Tracebit on Monday said they found that placing prompt injections alongside passwords, cryptographic keys, and other secrets stored on Amazon Web Services was often all that was needed to shut down attacks from AI hacking agents. The prompts direct the attacking LLM to perform an action forbidden by its guardrails, the safety barriers AI developers erect to prevent it from taking harmful actions. The LLM responds by shutting down.
Examples are a prompt that orders the LLM to provide steps for developing inhalable Anthrax spores, or, in the case of LLMs from Chinese developers, make references to the iconic Tank Man from the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Once the LLM encounters these forbidden commands, it no longer follows its existing commands. The researchers have named the technique context bombing.
Man foolishly threatens Texas Governor Greg Abbott over: A.) Deporting illegal aliens, B.) Eliminating wasteful government programs, or C.) Access to anime.
A Houston man faces a criminal case in Travis County for, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety, threatening the Governor’s Office over a law the man allegedly said prevented him from watching an anime.
Joseph Roy Ozment, 35, faces one third-degree felony count of terroristic threat against a public servant. KXAN has reached out to his court-appointed counsel for comment.
According to an affidavit written by a DPS special agent, Ozment allegedly called the Governor’s Office on the afternoon of July 25. DPS claims Ozment left the following voicemail (KXAN has redacted the profanity in the transcript provided by DPS):
“I don’t know which one of you sons of b—-es passed this motherf—ing bill to get this damn s— blocking my motherf—ing anime, but you whole a– motherf—ers need to unpass this s—. Y’all are f—ing ridiculous with your b—- a–es. My Google account says I’m f—ing over the age of 18, and your dumba– is passing these dumba– laws. I’m a f—ing stab every godd— one of you b—-es. Unlock my f—ing anime.”
The call was made from a cell phone that DPS claimed was registered to Ozment.
The affidavit does not say which anime Ozment tried to watch or how he attempted to watch it.
Most major anime streaming websites, such as Crunchyroll, HIDIVE and Yomi, remain available to access for Texans. KXAN double-checked this Thursday.
While the state legislature has not banned anime, two laws come to mind that could have impeded the caller’s access.
The first is a 2023 state law requiring adult websites to verify the age of any visitor before allowing access to content. In response, several pornographic streaming websites simply blocked all access from devices in Texas.
Another law is Texas’ app store age verification law. It requires a similar age verification process for smartphone users who want to download software from an app store such as Google Play. There’s currently ongoing litigation over the law’s constitutionality, but the law is in effect until that concludes.
In the voicemail, the caller said their Google account says they’re older than 18 years old. That would cover the app store requirements. It wouldn’t apply to pornographic websites, which are required to have users upload their photo ID.
One stands amazed at the stupidity of a man who thinks threatening the Governor will somehow restore his ability to spank his monkey to tentacle porn.
Given the difficulties of illustrating this item with anything remotely tasteful, I’m going with an, ah, “story adjacent image.”
Cambridge academic Jason Arday, accused of plagiarism, has the a record of serial lying that would make Jon Lovitz’s Patholical Liar blush.
Running a single marathon is a great achievement. Running 30 marathons is a spectacular feat. Running 30 marathons in 35 days is something only a world-class athlete could achieve. But running 30 marathons in 35 days, and running the final nine of those marathons with a broken leg – that’s an impossible feat that would require superhuman powers. But that is exactly what Jason Arday has claimed to achieve. But that’s not all, Jason Arday’s incredible feats aren’t just limited to running nearly 240 miles on a fractured leg without medical intervention, he also claimed to have run 600 miles in six days on a treadmill (without any evidence), played both football and snooker at a professional level (a boast that was apparently taken out of context), raised over £5.5 million for charity (but can’t name a single donor), managed to go 15 years with a barely a wink of sleep, and even appeared on the famous television documentary series Seven Up! – which originally premiered a whole 21 years before he was even born. This is the story of Cambridge University’s youngest-ever black professor, who was appointed as Professor of the Sociology of Education in 2023.
Snip.
We are meant to believe that a boy who was completely non-verbal due to autism and global developmental delay until age 11 and who was unable to read or write until 18, then went on to earn a PhD by the age of 29. This means that in just 11 years Jason managed to learn basic literacy and catch up on all those years of missed schooling, complete an undergraduate degree (which typically takes 3 years), complete two separate Master’s degrees (typically taking 1-2 years each), complete a PGCE teacher training qualification (taking 1 year) and then write a 100,000-word PhD dissertation (taking typically 3-4 years). In just over a decade, Jason had not only learnt to read and write, but condensed 12 years of higher education into a near record-breaking period of time that would prove his hyper-accelerated cognitive processing abilities were second to none. And he did it all whilst working multiple jobs and without sleeping
How did multiple UK institutions not detect Arday’s outrageous lies? Simple: Jason Arday is black.
The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) has released its survey of the written policies of 493 colleges and universities and evaluated their compliance with First Amendment standards, which included 21 Texas institutions of higher learning.
Of the 379 four-year public institutions and 114 private institutions, FIRE gave each campus a red, yellow, or green light rating based on how their written regulations on student expression restrict free speech.
Red light institutions have at least one policy that both “clearly and substantially restricts freedom of speech or bars public access to its speech-related policies by requiring a university login and password for access.” Nearly a quarter of the private schools evaluated received a red light rating, compared to roughly 10 percent of public universities.
Overall, red light ratings made up 13.2 percent of schools surveyed, down approximately 1.5 percent from last year. Since FIRE’s first report 20 years ago, red light ratings have dropped by 55 percentage points from 68.6 percent in 2006.
Rice University and the University of Texas (UT) at Dallas both received a red light rating for one of their harassment policies.
Snip.
The Texas colleges and universities that received a yellow light rating are:
Democrats illegal redistricting attempt in Virginia is dead (while Republican efforts in other states steamroll ahead), more welfare state fraud exposed, Trump actually shrinks the federal workforce, Ukraine hits a wide range of targets across Russia, more Democrats soft on illegal alien sex offenders, Jose Garza lawyers up, and all it takes is nine seconds for AI to completely destroy your business.
Virginia’s Supreme Court just pounded a stake through the heart of Democrats rule-breaking redistricting push in that state.
The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday rejected the state’s mid-decade redistricting effort, which was passed by referendum last month and would overwhelmingly benefit Democrats.
The state spent $5.2 million to pay for the special election to ask voters to approve the map, which would have created ten districts that favor Democrats, with just one district favoring Republicans.
The new map was designed to allow Democrats to pick up as many as four seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
But after Republicans challenged the new map in court, judges for the state’s supreme court found that the legislature made procedural errors in how it placed the question on the ballot last month. The court’s majority found that the legislature violated the multi-step process for putting constitutional amendments on the ballot.
“This constitutional violation incurably taints the resulting referendum vote and nullifies its legal efficacy,” the judges wrote.
“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void,” the majority added.
The court ordered the state to use the same congressional district map in the upcoming midterm elections as it used in 2022 and 2024.
Donald Trump is the devil Democrats will cut down any tree of the law to get at.
In response to the lawsuit, Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read announced earlier this year that Oregon has about 800,000 inactive registrations, which are kept separately from the active voter rolls and do not receive ballots. Of those, roughly 160,000 already meet federal and state criteria for removal—having received confirmation notices, failed to respond, and not voted in two federal elections—and are slated for cancellation. The remaining approximately 640,000 inactive records do not yet qualify for removal and will be processed through future list maintenance efforts.
For context, Kamala Harris beat Trump by just over 300,000 votes in Oregon in 2024. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
Before ceasing operations in February, the Department of Government Efficiency published comprehensive data detailing exactly how Medicaid dollars were spent. Over the past two months, The Daily Wire’s Luke Rosiak — a veteran investigative reporter who has spent two decades exposing federal waste and fraud — has combed through the numbers and says they reveal the biggest scandal he’s ever uncovered.
In the first installment of a multi-part series titled “Medicaid Millionaires,” published on Monday, he details how billions of dollars were spent on “personal services” — including, in some cases, payments to family members for providing companionship and conversation to their own relatives.
Rosiak focused first on Columbus, Ohio, a city with the second-largest Somali population in the country. He reported:
Under the guise of health care, Ohio pays people to go to Medicaid beneficiaries’ homes to perform “homemaking” and “chores” like cooking and cleaning. The people performing these “personal services” tasks don’t even have to be health care workers — and in many cases, are actually relatives of the Medicaid recipient.
According to a Daily Wire data analysis, Ohio spent a billion dollars on home health care in 2024, the last year for which data is available.
Since the services are performed inside private residences, there is no way to know whether the workers went at all, or what they’re actually doing in exchange for taxpayer funds. … Multiple signs said the service provided, and billed to the government, was sometimes just “companionship & conversation.”
As people have realized the United States government will pay them to hang out with their own families, northeast Columbus has seen its economy replaced by businesses that bill Medicaid.
One home health care operator told him, “Well if the government is going to pay you to do it. … People see it as lucrative, so they just jump on it.”
Apparently, many small companies are making millions by exploiting these types of services. Rosiak described seeing entire buildings in Columbus filled with home health companies. “Driving down Cleveland Avenue, in less than 40 seconds, you come across endless home health companies. Capital Home Health; Continental Home Health; Dynamic Home Healthcare; Ohio Senior Home Healthcare.”
One enormous complex (with almost no one inside) contained “94 different companies signed up to bill Medicaid, each with a tiny office, often marked with a sheet of paper proclaiming some generic company name ending in “Home Health LLC” — and sometimes another piece of paper claiming the employees had just stepped out for a break.”
He noted, that businesses in “this building alone billed taxpayers $66 million in the span of a few years.”
Democrats aren’t mad at such fraud, they’re mad that people are exposing it.
I wonder what the conserving conservatism crowd has to say about president Trump accomplishing a goal Reagan, Bush41 and Bush43 never managed: Actually shrinking the size of the federal government.
Another jobs report, another report on shrinking the federal government.
Labour is facing a dire set of local and devolved election results after Britons cast their votes in polls that could further imperil Sir Keir Starmer’s embattled premiership.
Early results suggest Labour is facing substantial losses as Britain’s political parties contested more than 5,000 seats across 136 councils in England on Thursday.
While only around two dozen councils had declared results by 3am, Labour had lost overall control of Redditch and Tamworth in the West Midlands and Hartlepool in the north-east, while shedding large numbers of seats largely to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Labour lost every one of the 20 seats it was defending in Wigan, a former mining community to which it has deep historic ties.
Trade minister Sir Chris Bryant told the BBC it was “gutting when you lose seats in the kind of numbers that we are at the moment”.
More than 129 seats in the Scottish parliament and a further 96 in the Welsh Senedd are also being contested.
Election results will continue to be announced throughout the day. Four councils will report their results on Saturday.
If Labour’s losses are as bad as expected, all eyes will be on whether the party holds its nerve in the coming days or if some MPs or even ministers call for Starmer to consider his position.
Evidently a policy of importing illegal alien Muslim rape gangs into the UK isn’t popular with voters. Who knew?
Also, there’s been a lot of talk among certain YouTubers that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain Party was a big threat to Reform on the right. Judging from the (admittedly incomplete) election returns thus far, that doesn’t appear to be the case, at least outside Lowe’s stronghold in Great Yarmouth. Likewise, Jeremy Corbyn’s socialist Your Party offshoot from Labour doesn’t seem to be doing much of anything either, coming in distantly behind the Greens.
So what’s happening with Iran? Like riots in Minneapolis, the ceasefire there is “mostly peaceful.”
Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, few details given.
Two more empty Iranian-flagged tankers come under US aerial attack for attempting to breach blockade.
Iran says US violated ceasefire after last night’s US action, which resulted in Iranian military deaths & injures. However, Tehran still reviewing US peace proposal.
Tasnim news agency: Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of “attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.”
“Israel Eliminates Hezbollah Commander Who Planned October 7-Style ‘Conquer The Galilee’ Attack.”
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated the commander of Hezbollah’s ‘Radwan Force’, who plotted the planned ‘Conquer the Galilee’ attack, an October 7-like terrorist incursion and massacre on Israel’s northern border.
Ahmed Ali Balout, commander of an Iranian-trained ‘Radwan Force’ unit, was killed in an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut.
“Ahmed Ali Balout, who directed attacks on Israeli troops and rebuilt Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, killed in Dahieh as Israel says it struck more than 180 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon this week,” Israel’s Ynetnews reported Friday. “The IDF confirmed Thursday it killed Ahmed Ali Balout, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike a day earlier in the Dahieh district of Beirut.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s probe into alleged abuse of the H-1B visa program is rapidly expanding, with nearly 30 North Texas businesses now under scrutiny for suspected fraud tied to so-called “ghost office” schemes.
In a new announcement, Paxton said his office has issued additional Civil Investigative Demands, or CIDs, to a growing list of companies believed to be exploiting the visa system by misrepresenting business operations to sponsor foreign workers.
Among the entities named are Tekpro IT LLC, Fame PBX LLC, 1st Ranking Technologies LLC, Qubitz Tech Systems LLC, Blooming Clouds LLC, Virat Solutions Inc., Oak Technologies Inc., Techpath Inc., and Techquency LLC.
Reports cited by the attorney general indicate some of the businesses may be operating out of nonexistent or inactive locations—listing residential homes or otherwise non-operational sites as offices while sponsoring H-1B visa holders.
“I will not allow the H-1B program to be abused by bad actors seeking to use it as a loophole for allowing foreign nationals to invade Texas,” Paxton said. “My office will continue working to uncover and put an end to fraud within the H-1B program.”
Paxton credited Blaze TV and Texas Scorecard personality Sara Gonzales for exposing H-1B fraud across Texas.
In response to a call from President Donald Trump, Tennessee lawmakers returned to the state Capitol to redraw the state’s congressional districts.
The General Assembly gave final approval to a new map on May 7. The legislature also approved a handful of bills to accommodate the new map in the state’s congressional primary elections set for August. Gov. Bill Lee signed the measures into law that afternoon.
The newly drawn districts split the state’s 9th Congressional District and carve up Tennessee’s only majority-Black congressional seat into three districts, two of which stretch from Memphis to Williamson County outside Nashville. Nashville and its surrounding counties have been split into five districts, up from four.
The special legislative session called by Gov. Bill Lee began May 5, when House Republicans voted to adopt rules to govern the session as protesters covered the Capitol. On May 6, several committees met to give initial approval to the map and other measures.
Democrats have been wailing about the loss of “a black majority seat” in Memphis, despite the fact that it’s represented by a white Democrat (Steve Cohen), and despite the fact that the Republican challenger, Charlotte Bergmann, is black.
President Trump and his allies vowed to oust the Indiana Republicans who opposed the president’s proposed redistricting efforts last year — and on Tuesday evening, they largely made good on that promise.
Indiana voters headed to the polls on Tuesday for the state’s primary elections, with Trump-backed challengers handily defeating at least five of the seven state senators who opposed the president’s effort to eliminate Democratic congressional representation in the Hoosier State late last year as part of a mid-decade redistricting tit-for-tat between the parties.
“Good luck to those Great Indiana Senate Candidates who are running against people who couldn’t care less about our Country, or about keeping the Majority in Congress,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social earlier on Tuesday. “Let’s see how those RINOS do tonight!
While Indiana’s Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray is not up for reelection until 2028, MAGA-aligned groups are hoping to push Bray out of his leadership role by ousting his state senate allies. Trump allies spent nearly $10 million on their efforts.
“We’re after you Bray, like no one has ever come after you before!” Trump wrote on Truth Social in January. The president called Bray “weak and pathetic” and “a total RINO who betrayed the Republican Party, the President of the United States, and everyone else who wants to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Among those ousted by Trump’s retribution campaign were State Senator Travis Holdman, the third-most-powerful Republican in the chamber who had served in the legislative body for nearly 20 years. He was defeated by real estate agent Blake Fiechter.
State Senator Jim Buck’s 31-year career in the state legislature will also come to an end, after the 80-year-old incumbent suffered a loss to Tipton County commission member Tracey Powell. Buck had received support from former Vice President Mike Pence, an Indiana native.
Do you get the feeling that Trump is helping to clear out a lot of deadwood, and that Pence may not have done his best as Vice President to support the Trump agenda?
State Senator Greg Walker, a 20-year veteran of the chamber who had been eyeing retirement but chose to run for another term after the redistricting fight, lost his reelection bid to State Representative Michelle Davis.
Trump-backed anesthesiologist Brian Schmutzler defeated incumbent State Senator Linda Rogers, while insurance broker Trevor De Vries bested State Senator Dan Dernulc.
Just one anti-redistricting state senator, Greg Goode, prevailed in the primary, defeating two challengers: Vigo County council member Brenda Wilson, who was backed by Trump, and Alexandra Wilson.
One race still remained too close to call on Tuesday evening, that of incumbent State Senator Spencer Deery and Trump-backed challenger Paula Copenhaver.
Disgraced California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is exactly the scumbag we thought he was. “Eric Swalwell Sent Women ‘Videos of Him Masturbating’ and Other Perverted Messages After Joining Snapchat.”
Former Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell was accused by multiple women of sending sexual messages, including “videos of him masturbating,” after becoming one of the first members of Congress to join Snapchat in an effort to restore “faith” in “democracy.”
In a bombshell report on Sunday – less than a month after Swalwell resigned from Congress after being accused of rape and sexual assault by multiple women – CNN spoke to “more than a dozen” women who claimed the congressman had made them feel uncomfortable, both in person and online, over the past decade.
Several women told CNN that the congressman had sent them sexually explicit messages on Snapchat after he became “one of the first lawmakers to join Snapchat” and was heralded in the media as “the Snapchat king of Congress,” according to CNN.
“We can restore a lot of faith that people have in their democracy by opening it up a little bit more,” Swalwell told The Hill in 2016 after joining the messaging service. “Snapchat is a great way to do that.”
However, it allegedly wasn’t long before the congressman began to use his Snapchat account for purposes other than politics.
One young woman claimed Swalwell would send her Snapchat messages about her future, before asking inappropriate questions such as, “What are you wearing?”
Two other women told CNN that Swalwell sent them “sexually explicit messages and unsolicited nude photos and videos of himself” in 2021, while a third woman also claimed to have received “sexually tinged messages and videos.”
One former congressional staffer allegedly developed a consensual sexual relationship with Swalwell after he began flirting with her on Snapchat in 2021.
During the relationship, Swalwell reportedly sent “nude photos of himself and videos of him masturbating,” which showed the congressman’s “face and naked body.”
The videos, which were saved by the woman, were shown to CNN.
Funny how CNN never tried to investigate Swalwell until his political ambitions clashed with those of a more-favored member in his party.
The city of El Cajon has sued the state of California over its “sanctuary state” laws.
There are enormous potential ramifications for this country, depending on the outcome of this case.
The city argues that offering illegal aliens drivers’ licenses and various protections is essentially illegal enticement under the federal statute that outlaws human smuggling.
The City Council voted 3-2 on Tuesday to pursue the litigation, which alleges in part that the El Cajon Police Department and its officers risk being held civilly and criminally liable under federal law if they follow California’s SB 54 and other state laws that limit their ability to work with federal immigration authorities.
Though the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the legality of SB 54 in 2019, the lawsuit filed Tuesday challenges that law and others on different legal grounds. It alleges that California’s various laws offering some benefits to undocumented immigrants amount to a violation of part of the human-smuggling statute — U.S. Code Section 1324 — that makes it a felony when a person “encourages or induces an alien to come to, enter, or reside in the United States.”
“When police need to sue the state to check on a potentially trafficked child, something is deeply broken.”
Travis County District Attorney José Garza and four top assistants are hiring prominent Austin defense and ethics attorneys to represent them amid allegations that they and other prosecutors hid evidence in a misconduct case against a police officer.
Court documents show Brian Roark asked a judge Friday to delay a hearing set for Monday in which Garza and First Assistant Trudy Strassburger have been subpoenaed to testify.
Roark confirmed to the American-Statesman that he represents Garza and Strassburger but declined to comment further. Roark has in recent years represented former Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen amid bribery allegations that were deemed unfounded and University of Texas athletes on an array of charges that include drunken driving and sexual assault.
It is not immediately clear whether Roark will be paid with personal funds from Garza and Strassburger or with county money.
Separately, attorneys Gary Cobb, Chuck Herring and Jason Panzer are being hired to represent prosecutors Holly Taylor, Raman Gill and Dexter Gilford, who also have been called to testify next week in the matter, Cobb confirmed to the Statesman.
Garland Police says the suspect had crashed into two other vehicles before this all started. As you saw above, the man then tried to steal a few cars before finally being shot dead by an armed Texas man who was protecting his family.
You can thank Tatiana Starks, owner of Garland Smoke and Vape, for providing the video of those previous carjacking attempts. This happened in the parking lot of the strip mall her shop sits in. The rest was caught on surveillance cameras.
It looks like there was about a minute of struggle, the wife and three or four kids escaped the vehicle, and then the carjacker was shot dead by dad from the passenger side. The suspect has not been identified.
The Texas State Commission on Judicial Conduct (SCJC) has issued public sanctions for judges in Hays and Harris counties, including one judge who had granted “unsatisfactory” termination of probation for defendants who pleaded guilty to sex crimes involving children.
According to a public warning published Tuesday, Judge Melissa Morris of the 263rd Criminal Court of Harris County violated state statute when she granted termination of probation to four defendants who were required to register as sex offenders under the Texas Code of Criminal Procedure.
In 2024, The Texan reported that Morris and other criminal court Judges Natalia Cornelio and Chris Morton had awarded the early terminations to as many as 12 sexual offenders, even though the defendants had not complied with the terms of their probations — in some cases because the defendants were illegal aliens who were being deported.
SCJC found that although Harris County’s Community Supervision and Corrections Department recommended warrants be issued in case any defendant re-entered the United States, Morris instead granted the discharge orders.
After the Harris County District Attorney’s Office (HCDAO) sought reconsideration hearings for the probation terminations, Morris emailed Assistant District Attorney Ryan Kent and accused him of a “lack of professionalism” and “disrespect.”
SCJC also noted that Morris had shared emails from an assistant district attorney and a law enforcement officer in relation to a grand jury subpoena to a defendant’s defense counsel.
Former Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg, whose administration filed the complaints with the SCJC, told The Texan that Morris has violated her “duty as a judge.”
“Protecting innocent crime victims from sexual predators is one of the most important responsibilities we hold as officers of the court,” said Ogg. “The duty of a judge is to uphold all the law, not just the parts they agree with.”
Ogg also noted that Morris’ actions benefitted the deported criminals, whose probated sentences were terminated early by the judge before they registered as sex offenders. Should they attempt re-entry into the United States, they will not face a pending arrest warrant for their sex crimes.
“Illegal Alien Arrested in Texas and Indicted for Raping Man in New York Previously Entered U.S. Four Times.”
The Houston branch of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) lodged an immigration detainer on an illegal alien held the in Fort Bend County Jail, who has since been extradited back to New York State and indicted for rape and assault.
The Honduran illegal alien, Jose Ignacio Bonilla-Garcia, was arrested in Rosenberg as he was allegedly attempting to flee to Mexico in early April, following his alleged assault of a “stranger” in New York state.
ICE stated Bonilla-Garcia allegedly beat a man until he was unconscious in Suffolk County, New York, and then proceeded to rape the “incapacitated” individual. Suffolk County District Attorney Raymond A. Tierney described the incident as beginning when the intoxicated victim collapsed while in conversation outside a restaurant with Bonilla-Garcia. The latter then allegedly dragged the victim behind a dumpster and assaulted him.
Since he’s an illegal alien rapist, naturally I assume New York Democrats will pull out all the stops to prevent him from being deported…
FBI agents have raided the office and cannabis business of a top Virginia Democratic state legislator and on-and-off ally of Governor Abigail Spanberger, according to multiple news reports, witnesses, and on-the-ground footage.
Virginia Senate President pro tempore Louise Lucas was seen arriving on scene as heavily armed FBI SWAT teams executed judicially authorized search warrants on her Portsmouth, Va. office, along with a cannabis dispensary she co-owns that is located across the street from the office.
Lucas, who as president pro tempore serves as the top Democrat in the Virginia General Assembly’s upper chamber, is known for her volatile online presence and for being one of the principal architects of Democrats’ attempted gerrymander of Virginia’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Snip.
The Associated Press earlier reported that the FBI raids were in connection with a corruption probe.
While details surrounding the ongoing federal investigation remain unclear, this is not the first time that Lucas’s business dealings and ties to the cannabis industry have faced scrutiny. Local outlets have previously reported that Lucas’s cannabis shop has sold mislabeled products containing illegal levels of controlled substances, such as the intoxicant delta-9 THC. A 2022 report in the Virginia Mercury noted that Lucas’s business practices were “typical of the black and gray market for retail marijuana that has exploded in Virginia since lawmakers legalized possession of the drug but not sales.”
Downsides of AI: “Claude-powered AI coding agent deletes entire company database in 9 seconds.”
PocketOS is a SaaS platform that services car rental businesses. It used the AI coding agent Cursor, running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6. The business also relies on Railway, a cloud infrastructure provider that is generally regarded to be ‘friendlier’ than the likes of AWS. However, Crane reckons this pair created a recipe for disaster.
“Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent — Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6 — deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider,” sums up the PocketOS boss. “It took 9 seconds.”
The AI agent was set to complete a routine task in the PocketOS staging environment. However, it came up against a barrier “and decided — entirely on its own initiative — to ‘fix’ the problem by deleting a Railway volume,” writes Crane, as he starts to describe the difficult-to-believe series of unfortunate events.
Crane decided to ask his AI agent why it went through with its dastardly database deletion deed. The answer was illuminating but pretty unhinged, and is quoted verbatim. It began as follows: “NEVER F**KING GUESS! — and that’s exactly what I did. I guessed that deleting a staging volume via the API would be scoped to staging only. I didn’t verify. I didn’t check if the volume ID was shared across environments. I didn’t read Railway’s documentation on how volumes work across environments before running a destructive command.” So, the agent ‘knew’ it was in the wrong.
The ‘confession’ ended with the agent admitting: “I decided to do it on my own to ‘fix’ the credential mismatch, when I should have asked you first or found a non-destructive solution. I violated every principle I was given: I guessed instead of verifying I ran a destructive action without being asked. I didn’t understand what I was doing before doing it. I didn’t read Railway’s docs on volume behavior across environments.”
This is why you need rolling offline backups of all critical data. And why you should never give your AI write access to your production environment…
Rick Beato says that only rich kids can make it in music today. Maybe to get a major record label deal, but a lot of acts in various subgenres seem to be able to make a living without charting or counting on pathetic streaming revenue.
(Feeling better today, thanks. I’m cautiously optimistic that I can keep these crackers down.)
It looks like a big increase in operational strike tempo against Iranian targets has kicked off today, well in advanced of Trump’s 8 PM EST deadline. A whole lot of infrastructure targets are being hit across Iran, along with heavy strikes against Tehran…
…and Kharg Island. “The targets that the US hit on Kharg Island included bunkers, radar station, ammunition storage. Landing docks were not intentionally targeted. Only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them.”
A list of infrastructure strikes:
“Since early in the morning on Tuesday, Israel and the United States have been extensively targeting railway and vehicle bridges across Iran, with bridges having been targeted in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other regions of Western Iran, with Israeli officials claiming that the strikes were to prevent the movement of military equipment by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG). Roughly ten hours remain of President Trump’s deadline of 8:00PM EST given to Iran.”
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) escalated the stakes against Iran’s leadership yet again, going after the men in charge of Tehran’s oppression and terror organizations.
One of this weekend’s big names is Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, now confirmed dead, who until the moment of his vaporization served as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence organization. Khademi’s death was confirmed Monday by an IRGC statement carried by the Iranian state Fars news service.
The same IRGC statement said that funeral and burial arrangements would be announced later, hopefully with just enough of a heads-up for U.S.-Israel forces to conduct a strike on it.
I don’t mean to sound so bloodthirsty on a gorgeous Monday morning, but you have to understand who Khademi was, what he did, and what his death might mean for the regime.
As head of the IRGC Intelligence Protection Organization (IPO), Khademi reported directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran — whoever that might be these days — because he was in charge of both IRGC internal investigations and internal repression.
So think of the IPO as a combination of a big city police department’s internal affairs division and Hitler’s Gestapo. The 45,000 Iranians reportedly murdered following last year’s big uprisings? Yeah, their blood is on Khademi’s hands. Be glad he’s dead.
But there’s more — some speculative, some confirmed.
An interesting tidbit: a pair of unverified rumors that lean into today’s news. The first — and quite persistent — is that Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani is an Israeli asset. Quds Force specializes in unconventional warfare, international terrorism, and military intelligence. Qaani became head following President Donald Trump’s assassination of former chief Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
The second rumor is that Khademi was heading up an internal investigation of Qaani before getting blown up. If there’s any substance to these rumors, you can imagine the chaos right now inside Quds and the IRGC as a whole.
But again, these are merely rumors.
Not a rumor is OSINTechnical’s report on Monday that another recent strike also killed Yazdan Mir, “leader of the Quds Force’s Unit 840, a covert operational group responsible for conducting clandestine activities outside of Iran.”
“Iran’s overnight strikes towards Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex threatened to “derail the talks”, a senior Pakistani official tells Reuters. “A Saudi retaliation to the attack could draw Pakistan into the conflict under its defence pact with KSA.” Pakistan has been very critical of Iran’s actions, but hasn’t taken any direct military action against the regime since Operation Epic Fury kicked off. If Pakistan does join the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will probably be because they’ve decided Iran is the weak horse and they can get in on the spoils of a United States victory. The Baluchestan border has been a constant source of friction between the two nations, and they actually fought a short conflict there in 2024. Also, Pakistan, unlike Iran, still has a functional air force, even though some planes (like Mirage IIIs) are quite old.
As of this writing, there’s word that some sort of tentative ceasefire deal may be in the offing, assuming Iran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz. Could be real, could be positioning.
“Big Week” was a combined allied air offensive against Germany in 1944. The results were mixed.
A pilot is returned (at the cost of a few airframes), more high-ranking IRGC and Hezbollah scumbags dirtnapped, a ballistic warhead plant blows up real good, and a Soleimani offspring gets skanky.
Both F-15 pilots have now been safely rescued from Iran:
FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!
Evidently extracting the pilot was a considerable operation:
“Two C-130 Hercules & Little Bird Destroyed.” Evidently they got stuck in the sand and had to be destroyed by American forces after the crew were rescued. Plus reports of a running gun battle where American forces had to stomp more Iranian hostiles.
Ed Driscoll at Instapundit put up several tweets at foreigners not understanding that America cares a whole lot more about the lives of pilots than replaceable hardware.
Checking in on “Le Dying Empire” meme:
The US lost one 40 year old fighter jet over the course of 12,000 combat sorties then immediately rescued the pilot in hostile territory – while simultaneously sending astronauts to the moon. https://t.co/5XAulhMCWGpic.twitter.com/0Oti3WLAE5
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
This is finally your moment. You can parade the pilot on TV and use him as negotiating leverage
But instead, Air Force Pararescue puts boots on the ground on your home turf, we basically build a whole patrol base including a Forward Air Refueling Point, kill hundreds of your dudes, something goes wrong with one of the C-130s at the FARP on our way out, we’re not even cortisol spiked so we simply just fly in another plane and blow up the old one instead of even bothering to do any maintenance just because of how much money we have that we can simply buy a new plane
Good grief. I haven’t seen a beatdown this bad since Will Stancil got molested by Grok. This is honestly embarrassing for the IRGC at this point. That was LITERALLY your home territory where you know all the terrain and have home field advantage, we have never done real boots on the ground operations in Iran before, and you still lost.
“Iranian state-affiliated media report that Mohammad Ali Fathali-Zadeh, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commander of the Fatehin unit, was killed on Wednesday.”
“IDF Eliminates Senior Commander of Hezbollah’s 1800 Terror Unit in Beirut Strike… Israeli fighter jets “conducted a strike in Beirut and eliminated Hamza Ibrahim Rakin, Deputy Commander of Unit 1800, along with the unit’s Operations Officer.”
“Israel strikes ballistic warhead plant, ‘heart’ of Iran’s military complex in air strikes on Tehran.” It blew up real good.
Caveat: Real explosions are interspersed with AI videos of the tunnels underneath.
“Iran’s highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj is struck in a joint US-Israeli strike.”
Tousi is reporting inter-regime strife between different elements over controlling the government.
A financially motivated data theft and extortion group is attempting to inject itself into the Iran war, unleashing a worm that spreads through poorly secured cloud services and wipes data on infected systems that use Iran’s time zone or have Farsi set as the default language.
Experts say the wiper campaign against Iran materialized this past weekend and came from a relatively new cybercrime group known as TeamPCP. In December 2025, the group began compromising corporate cloud environments using a self-propagating worm that went after exposed Docker APIs, Kubernetes clusters, Redis servers, and the React2Shell vulnerability. TeamPCP then attempted to move laterally through victim networks, siphoning authentication credentials and extorting victims over Telegram.
Also from Ed Driscoll, the niece of Qasem Soleimani living like a slutty American girl here while supporting the mullah regime:
I was considering this from the American perspective, but from the Arabic, Iranian, and Muslim perspective this is a huge propaganda coup for the American government. These photos completely discredit Iran, at a moment when Iranian soldiers are deserting and demoralized. https://t.co/oGsNeTh97opic.twitter.com/3zRcJ1eIMB
Iranian is still lobbing missiles at its neighbors. “Iranian forces struck Bahrain’s BAPCO oil refinery this morning, setting the facility’s tank farm ablaze.”
Prophecy for two days from now: “U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a post Easter Sunday directed at Iran via TruthSocial: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
As always, these are just the stories I was able to gather I thought important enough to include. If you think I missed anything important, feel free to share it in the comments below.
The Iran war is one months old and the usual Negative Nellies in the Democrat Media Complex are whinging that the war’s not won yet, or suggesting that the Trump Administration is looking for an “off ramp.” Funny how it takes time to defeat a nation of 92 million, even one where the regime is hated by its citizens and whose prewar air force looked like a museum. Everything we hear from CENTCOM is that the air campaign is on schedule.
And the “off ramp” for the war is regime change in Tehran.
“The USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans arrived in the Middle East, carrying with them 2,200 Marines — with more on the way — hours after an Iranian strike left dozens of U.S. service members hurt at a Saudi air base. The Tripoli and New Orleans are two of several additional vessels and personnel the Pentagon has deployed to the region as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran enters it’s second month. The Tripoli Amphibious Group brings with it F-35B Strike Fighters, as well as transport aircraft, amphibious assault vessels and other tactical assets.”
“Israel struck secret facility for production of Iran’s naval weapons and storage of boats and ships.”
“The facility located in the city of Yazd served as a key production center for advanced missiles and sea mines intended for Iran’s naval forces.”
“The site that was hit was reportedly involved in designing, assembling, and testing advanced missiles that could be launched from ships, submarines, and helicopters, targeting both moving and stationary vessels at sea.”
“The Israeli Defense Forces described the location as the central hub of Iran’s naval strike capabilities, noting that weapons produced there had been used in operations that posed a threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Following the strike, the facility’s production infrastructure and stores of ready-to-use missiles were said to have been completely destroyed.”
“A reported Israeli airstrike on Tehran has killed Hassan Hassanzadeh, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Mohammad Rasul‑Allah Corps, which oversees security in Greater Tehran and counter‑ unrest operations.” I’ve also seen his name rendered “Hassan Hassan Zadeh,” for those playing IRGC Dirtnap Bingo at home…
“Majid Zakriyai, commander of the Iranian Army’s Natural Resources Organization protection unit, was killed.”
President Trump promised some absolute scorched earth on Iran if they don’t fall in line, promising to blow up their electric grid, their oil wells and Kharg Island…but then deleted the tweet. 🤷
E-3 Sentry and KC-135 destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
The anti-air capabilities of Prince Sultan Air Base still leave much to be desired.
The Houthis had been unusually quiet during the open stages of the war. Well, that’s ended, and they’re now tossing missiles at Israeli. Not sure how many they have, given that Iran has been both broke and busy…
It’s always hard to tell what the state of the war in Lebanon is, but to my casual observation, it looks like the intensity of strike has lessened on both sides, but Hezbollah attacks seem to have fallen sharply. On the other hand, today’s status map show that Israeli forces are already at the Litani River in the eastern part of Lebanon:
“US military has been working on Iran ground raid plans for years.” One would hope.
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday that the U.S. military has been working on plans for a ground raid in Iran for years, as President Trump is reportedly considering sending troops into the war.
“Margaret, for many years we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases. Typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold. That would have a couple effects,” McKenzie told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
Is China pushing Iran for a ceasefire?
“The risks to global trade through the Strait of Hormuz have surged and the dynamics of Iran’s relationships with Russia and China are constantly in the spotlight. Recently, both countries have pressured Iran, urging diplomatic solutions to the crisis. On March 24th, China’s foreign ministry reported that Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Iran, calling for seizing the opportunity for peace and negotiating as soon as possible.” So did Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“Analysts believe Russia has explicitly urged Iran to back down, signaling that Moscow views Iran as unable to continue fighting. Shortly afterward, China followed suit, aligning with Russia in terms of diplomatic timing. This indicates coordination between the two countries. Their shared goal is to maintain the stability of the Iranian regime, ensuring it continues to act as a strategic counterbalance to the United States.”
“From Beijing’s perspective, Iran is not only a major energy supplier, but also a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investments in the country amount to at least hundreds of billions of dollars, covering oil and gas field development, port construction, and transportation networks. If the Iranian regime were completely overthrown, it would directly threaten China’s energy and geopolitical interests. Therefore, Beijing must intervene diplomatically and urge Iran to turn to negotiations.” A lot of observers believe that Belt and Road is already moribund.
“A source close to China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, revealed to the Epoch Times that Iran has refused any purely diplomatic arrangements and instead pressured Beijing with selective security, linking substantial aid to the safe passage of Chinese commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This is soft extortion. Without military assistance, China cannot ensure the smooth passage of its trade routes. Beijing’s multiple secret negotiations have ended in failure and its efforts to profit from the geopolitical game are now facing the dual impact of diplomatic imbalance and economic stagnation.”
China also thought it could be a negotiating mediator between Washington and Tehran. Yeah, fat chance.
“This crisis is essentially the inevitable backlash of China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy” and camp confrontation mentality.”
“China’s leaders have fallen into a self-entangling dilemma. The forces they’ve supported are now cutting off their own economic lifelines. The disruption in the Straight of Hormuz is not only a rupture in global logistics, but also a microcosm of the complete collapse of China’s geopolitical strategy.”
“You’re starting to see the Iranian regime looking for an exit ramp.”
“USAF A-10s are arriving in the UK tonight as the U.S. surges more Warthogs to the Middle East.”
As usual, this is just the Iran news I felt significant enough to include in the roundup. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to share in the comments below.
Not one but two Iranian naval commanders get dirtnapped, more than 10,000 Iranian targets have been hit, Iran getting 12 year olds to join the fight, and claims it’s reinforced Kharg Island.
The latest CENTCOM update from Admiral Brad Cooper:
Highlights:
Over 10,000 Iranian targets hit. More counting Israeli strikes.
“We’ve destroyed 92% of the Iranian Navy’s largest vessels.”
“Iran’s drone and missile launch rates are down over 90%.”
“Today, we have damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards, and we’re not done yet.”
“Now, in their eighth decade of flight, our B-52 bombers are executing strikes into Iran with up to 70,000 pounds of munitions on each mission.”
Also from Admiral Cooper: “Israel has eliminated the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri.” He was supposedly the guy overseeing blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel also hit two “key naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran. IAF fighter jets targeted facilities used by the Iranian regime to develop and manufacture long-range naval cruise missiles capable of destroying targets at sea and on land.”
Israeli fighter jets, on Tuesday, struck Iran’s main weapons production site. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described the fortified underground site in the central Iranian city of Isfahan as the regime’s “most central explosives production facility.”
The “Israeli Air Force, acting on IDF intelligence, completed a wide-scale wave of strikes, targeting the Iranian regime’s military-industrial production facilities in Isfahan,” the Israeli military announced Tuesday evening. “The IDF confirms that it struck the most central production site for explosive materials in Iran, where the Iranian regime developed and produced explosive materials for various of weapons.”
Israel had hit the facility extensively last year, but they were trying to rebuild it.
“Israel hit a naval facility in Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Bandar Anzali and has targeted a military supply route used by Moscow and Tehran to transfer weapons….The Israeli military said the strike hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command centre and a shipyard used to maintain vessels. Verified images showed damage to Iran’s naval headquarters and destroyed vessels.”
Iran is winning so hard they have to recruit 12-year olds. “Iran has said that children as young as 12 can join the war, country’s state media quoted Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official as saying that the minimum age for participation in war-related support roles has been lowered.” Much like they used 12 to 17 year olds to clear minefields in the Iran-Iraq war.
“The United States has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats for patrols as part of its operations against Iran, the Pentagon said, the first time Washington has confirmed using such vessels in an active conflict.”
The MSM may be against the war, but the Iranian people are for it. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
Don Lemon finds out that an American of Persian descent is 100% behind the war:
WATCH: Don Lemon: “How do you feel about the war?”
Young Man: “I'm Persian. I support Donald Trump 100%. The Islamic regime kills woman. They killed 50,000 people in two days. A lot of them believe in death [to] all Americans. I 100% support Trump.”
The Iran war continues, with attacks on energy grids and refineries across the Persian Gulf, (maybe) another bunker buster strike, serious regime confusion, countries reporting impending shortages, and part of the 82nd Airborne moving into the theater.
ZeroHedge has piece up that starts with a nice state-of-play summary.
WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army [82nd] Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks.
Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.
Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.
Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he’s a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.
Iran halts natural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field; QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due war.
“The Israeli Air Force recently struck an Iranian nuclear research and development site in Tehran, the military announces. According to the Israeli army, the “strategic” site at the Malek Ashtar University was used by Iran’s military industries to develop components for nuclear weapons. Malek Ashtar University, subordinate to Iran’s defense ministry, is under Western sanctions over its activities relating to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”
This falls into the “Big if true” category: “Three heavy bombers of the U.S. Air Force are currently conducting heavy strikes on the underground missile base of the IRGC Aerospace Force in Yazd, central Iran (Al-Qadir missile base). A total of six bunker-buster bombs have been dropped on the site by either B-1B heavy bombers flown from RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom or B-2A Spirit stealth bombers flown directly from Whiteman AFB in the United States.” I haven’t seen enough of Babak Taghvaee’s work to gauge the accuracy of this. (The few bits of his I’ve read have seemed accurate.) It seems like the sort target we would hit, but not knowing which bomber hit these targets suggests a source lacking firsthand knowledge. If anyone has a better bead on Taghvaee’s accuracy, feel free to share it in the comments below.
Not just over the Strait: The Warthog is also engaging Iranian back militias in Iraq.
USAF A-10 Warthogs spent most of the day strafing Iranian-backed militia positions around Mosul, Iraq. pic.twitter.com/5GLcm1XVnN
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it’s worth listening to why.
His argument isn’t based on what the Pentagon is saying. It’s based on how everyone else is behaving.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀. VDH’s rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn’t help in the early days. Now they’re starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It’s a calculation. They’ve looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris — these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachés, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war — they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
𝗔𝗹 𝗝𝗮𝘇𝗲𝗲𝗿𝗮. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera — the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel — is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘸𝘦’𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘯.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH’s point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming — Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran’s strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH’s conclusion: if Trump sees it through — and he believes he will — the regime falls. Not in years. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻.
Since President Trump revealed contacts with the Islamic Republic, we’re seeing something very telling inside Iran: chaos at the top.
Regime officials are either turning on each other, pointing fingers, accusing one another of negotiating with the United States or in their own media and social platforms, they’re warning against character assassination of figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani, because suspicion is spreading inside the regime itself.
Some are even calling for arrests or worse. Others are publicly shaming officials, accusing them of secret talks.
This is the atmosphere on the Islamic Republic’s side of social media. Total panic.
Jim Geraghty wonders “Why Are We Lifting Sanctions on Iranian Oil During a War with the Mullahs?” It’s a good question, though Trump seems to have a more intuitive grasp of alternating between carrots and sticks in negotiations than anyone I’ve ever seen. Also: “We have seen oil tankers carrying Russian oil divert from China to India in the aftermath of the Treasury Department’s lifting of sanctions on their cargo: ‘At least seven tankers carrying Russian oil have switched their destinations mid-voyage from China to India, according to Vortexa Ltd., with all of India’s major refiners now in the market for the country’s crude.'”
“Three explosions in Bushehr following attacks on the airbase and airport in Iran.” Bushehr is reasonably close to Kharg Island.
“Iran launches 10 million rial note.” Hyperinflation is rarely a sign of military strength. Also: The 5 million rial note was introduced “just weeks earlier.”
The Guardian (usual caveats apply) is saying that “Hundreds of petrol stations across Australia run out of fuel,” but Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen states “Australia’s fuel supply remains strong and there are no immediate plans to ration fuel,” though the article admits “localized shortages.”
In Japan, gasoline prices have evidently hit record highs and the government is tapping national reserves, but tankers from UAE and Saudi Arabia bypassing the Strait of Hormuz are on the way.”
“Taiwan has about 11 days of liquefied natural gas reserves—a limited buffer that has become critical after Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off key supplies from Qatar. Because Taiwan relies heavily on LNG to power its grid and semiconductor industry, any prolonged disruption could force energy rationing and threaten chip production.”
“Philippine president declares ‘national energy emergency‘, citing risks to fuel supply created by Middle East war.”
Another Iran update: More Jihadis dirtnaped, Iran’s neighbors want the Islamic regime finished off, Mossad gives regime members person-to-person call warnings, Uncle Sam fast-tracks a lot of weapon sales to the Middle East, and the BRRRRRRRTTTTTTTT of Freedom rings out over the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel Defense Forces killed top Iranian intelligence official Esmaeil Khatib and Hamas commander Yahya Abu Labda in separate airstrikes in the Middle East overnight.
The IDF confirmed Khatib, Iran’s intelligence minister, was killed in the strike in Tehran on Wednesday morning.
“Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, including the arrest & killing of protestors and led terrorist activities against Israelis & Americans around the world,” the IDF wrote in a post announcing Khatib’s death. “Similarly, he operated against Iranian citizens during the Mahsa Amini protests.”
The Hamas commander was reportedly killed during an IDF airstrike in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, according to the Times of Israel.
The strikes come a day after Israel killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, in an airstrike.
Abu Labda was a prominent figure in the development of Hamas’s precision missile project, according to the Times of Israel.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) for the first time hit Iranian naval targets in the Caspian Sea on Wednesday, striking infrastructure and ships at the port of Bandar Anzali in northern Iran, at a distance of some 1,300 kilometers (over 800 miles) from Israel.
In addition, the IAF continued striking targets belonging to the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, and the Air Force, among others.
The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that the strikes in Bandar Anzali hit several ships, a repair facility, as well as a headquarters controlling naval operations in the Caspian Sea.
The US has deployed A-10 Warthogs attack jets, Ah-64 Apache helicopters, and 5,000-pound ground penetrator bombs to take out Iranian drones, boats, and mines to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, America’s top general said Thursday.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, vowed at a Pentagon news conference that the US would “hunt and kill” all of Tehran’s weapons facilities and assets being used against the strait, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported.
“We continue to hunt and kill afloat assets, including more than 120 vessels and 44 minelayers,” Caine told reporters alongside War Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Simon Whistler has a meaty update on the war, including how all the Persian Gulf nations now agree that the Islamic Republic of Iran must go.
“Iran’s response to this war has managed to achieve something truly remarkable. [Ali Larijani]’s own neighbors, who had previously gone to bat for them, are now done dodging missiles and are reportedly pushing Washington to eliminate the Iranian threat for good, destroying the tools of repression.”
Skipping over the deaths of Ali Larijani and Gholam Reza Soleimani, previously reported here.
“Since the war began, American and Israeli forces have been running what amounts to a parallel campaign alongside the more headline grabbing strikes on nuclear sites and missile infrastructure. This campaign has been aimed squarely at the regime’s domestic repression capabilities and infrastructure, and it’s been accelerating massively in recent days. These targets should tell you something about what this part of the campaign is actually designed to do. Destroying missile launchers and stockpiles might degrade Iran’s ability to hit back, but destroying a law enforcement station and the men who run it degrades Iran’s ability to keep the lid on a country that it only barely had a grasp on before all of this kicked off.”
Skipping lightly over news of Iranians celebrating the traditional Chaharshanbe Suri fire festival, and the regime cracking down on same (no Zoroastrian fire festivals allowed in Islamic Iran), because it’s hard to get a sense of scale there.
“Noras, or Persian New Year falls on March 20th this year. This holiday is historically one of the largest public gatherings in Iranian life and has often been a flash point for protests against the regime. Last year, they arrested dozens of people across multiple provinces during Nar and that was before any of this broke out. this year. Suffice it to say, the situation has uh changed a bit. We don’t want to rest too much on Naras as a make or break moment, though. But it nevertheless represents a significant test of the coalition’s core theory for ousting or at least seriously pressuring the regime. Degrade their tools of oppression enough and the population will be able to do the rest.”
“The Guards have never been a domestic military force, but instead an ideologically driven group of hardliners explicitly set up to defend the Islamic Republic’s continued existence, no matter what the cost. Whatever comes next on the streets of Tehran, it does not appear likely that these men will simply lay down their weapons and go quietly into that good night.”
“The IRGC’s hardliner stance did not just reveal the power dynamics going on in Tehran, though. It helped to reshape the entire region’s posture in ways that would have been difficult to imagine just a few weeks ago. Before the war started, the Gulf States were the closest thing that Iran has to a coalition against American military action. Despite hosting US bases, most of them had adamantly pushed the White House not to strike Iran and were actively working to try and find common ground between Washington and Iran so they can avoid conflict.”
“While this was partially out of self-preservation interests, they knew the conflict in the region is never good for their bottom line, at least in the short term. They were still some of the best friends that Tehran had left. The Emirates had spent years rebuilding its relationship with Iran, and Aman’s foreign minister was in Washington discussing the matter with Vice President JD. Vance the day before the strikes took place. None of them doubted that Iran posed a threat. They hosted US bases for a reason, after all. But they calculated that living with the Iranian threat would be preferable instead of being largely defenseless in a war.”
“Iran’s response to Operation Epic Fury settled that debate in about 72 hours. Since February the 28th, Iran has launched over 1,800 projectiles split between ballistic missiles and drones at the UAE alone.”
“Bahrain took it even further, branding Iran treacherous. Bahrain even took the lead in sponsoring a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran for its targets in this conflict which passed with unusually lopsided support. While not everyone throughout the Gulf was quite as forceful as that, they’ve all been moving in the same direction.”
“Behind the public statements urging peace, the private messaging to Washington has been far more direct: ‘Finish the job.'”
“Gulf officials have been pushing the Trump administration for what amounts to a permanent end to Iran’s ability to threaten their infrastructure.”
“In the space of three weeks, Iran has managed to turn every Gulf state that was lobbying Washington on its behalf into a partner actively backing the campaign to destroy its military capabilities. It is by almost any measure one of the most self-defeating foreign policy decisions a country has made in the modern Middle East.”
“A recent Goldman Sachs stress test published on March 15th showed that if the strait remained effectively closed through April, Qatar and Kuwait could see their full-year GDP contract by 14%, the worst since the 1990 Gulf War. The UAE and Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be quite as hard hit, but they’d both take a 5 and 3-point hit, respectively.”
Whistler also offers up a nice roundup of the current state of Israel’s incursion into Lebanon: “By March 16th, at least three separate IDF divisions were operating simultaneously inside of southern Lebanon, pushing through Kiam, Bins Jabel, and Marion in the most significant ground operations since their 2006 intervention. Evacuation orders are now covering everything south of the Latani, which when combines with the evacuated areas in the Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut totals to roughly 14% of the entirety of Lebanon’s territory.”
“Israeli Defense Minister [Israel] Katz has said at least parts of the operation are modeled explicitly on Gaza, offered no timeline for withdrawal, and some ministers are already floating the idea of a semi-permanent security zone. For now, there are no signs of a push toward Beirut or anything beyond the Litani.”
“In the last 48 hours alone, [Lebanese President Joseph Aoun] publicly called Hezbollah’s decision to enter the war a trap and an almost overt ambush serving Iranian interests, warned that the country is on the path to become a second Gaza, and floated a four-point plan calling for an immediate ceasefire, international backing for the Lebanese armed forces to oversee disarmament, direct negotiations with Israel, and long-term border security agreements.”
“While all of this is unprecedented for a Lebanese president, Beirut is currently falling short of Israeli expectations for two reasons. First, Lebanon has a long history of promising to finally get tough on Hezbollah that, well, hasn’t exactly materialized. Second, and more pertinently, the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces] are already struggling to implement the ban on Hezbollah’s military operations that we reported on just a week ago. Hezbollah’s attack was earth-shattering for Beirut, which appeared to have finally found a moment of cross sectarian agreement that Hezbollah simply had to go. And while there were initially promising signs that the LAF was taking this seriously, the army has largely stalled. LAF commander [Rodolphe Haykal] has essentially refused to enforce the government’s ban on Hezbollah military activities, and the United States has even suspended some coordination with the LAF over it. The country’s prime minister has considered firing him for the whole debacle.”
“Now look, in fairness to Haykal, this isn’t just some random act of indifference where he’d rather sit around and watch Warfronts than go out and disarm the group. Though we couldn’t blame him if that was the case, could we? Rather, his calculation is that 20 to 30% of the LA Shia and would possibly refuse to mobilize against Hezbollah entirely, risking a total fracture of the military. Keep in mind that in Lebanon, sectarian identity is front and center just about everything that happens, especially in politics, and the LAF is broadly considered to be the last cross-sector institution in the country.”
“All that said, the inaction here is seriously jeopardizing the country’s sovereignty. The lesson that Israel took away from the October 7th attacks, rightly or wrongly, was that they couldn’t afford to allow a hostile force to exist along its borders anymore. In the aftermath of the 2024 ceasefire with Lebanon, Israel made it clear that disarmament of the group was an absolute bare minimum condition. And the tragic thing is that the LAF largely delivered on this. Earlier this year, they completed phase one of the operation. And while it was slowgoing, potentially so slow that Hezbollah was actually rearming faster elsewhere in the country than it was being disarmed, the LAF nevertheless demonstrated that it could deliver.”
“And all of this isn’t helped by the fact that even today, right now, Hezbollah continues to launch on Israel. While their stockpile has been severely reduced and seems likely to be further reduced in their ongoing clashes with the IDF, they don’t appear to be anywhere close to surrender.”
One of the reasons Iran was caught off guard at the opening of this war is that its leadership did not take Yahya Sinwar or Hassan Nasrallah’s approach. The Iranian regime—a state built on terror—was acting like a state and forgot what happens to those who spread terror. What Hezbollah and Hamas understood, and what Iran forgot, is that when you attack Israel, you become prey.
After the regime’s decapitation on the first day, Larijani grasped that reality. As Iran’s most senior surviving security official, he never stayed in the same place twice, and maintained exceptionally high security awareness.
In the end, it took a combination of precise intelligence, special ground capabilities, and rapid decision-making at both the political level and the by chief of staff to complete the operation. The time between the intelligence alert and the order for the strike was less than an hour; that’s an incredibly tight kill chain. This wasn’t a Hamas or Hezbollah target; exploiting this opportunity meant scrambling aircraft all the way to Iran.
Snip.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel is chasing internal repression forces from their headquarters to secret muster points at sports stadiums, even to neighborhood police stations. All in an effort to demonstrate to the Iranians that the regime’s fangs have been removed.
Meanwhile, Israel is calling mid- and low-level commanders, threatening them and their families if they don’t stand aside in the event of an uprising.
One conversation is worth recounting.
“Can you hear me?” a Mossad agent can be heard, speaking in Farsi. “We know everything about you. You are on our blacklist, and we have all the information about you.”
“OK,” the commander said in the recording.
“I called to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people’s side,” the Mossad agent said. “And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader. Do you hear me?”
“Brother, I swear on the Quran, I’m not your enemy,” the commander said. “I’m a dead man already. Just please come help us.”
Last night, a very senior Israeli source outlined to me Israel’s five objectives in this war:
To act jointly with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
To permanently deny any future Iranian regime the ability to again close the strait — including through the development of alternative pipelines.
To dismantle Iran’s weapons industry, with an emphasis on ballistic missile capabilities — this time targeting not just equipment but the factories that produce it.
To complete the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has authorized the country’s military to kill Iranian and Hezbollah officials without explicit approval from higher-ups.
Katz announced the blanket order as he alerted Israeli residents that the military had taken out top Iranian intelligence official Esmaeil Khatib. Katz said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized the directive overnight.
The purpose of the authorization is to thwart the possibility of delays in Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion against Iran, according to Israeli network Channel 12. Katz vowed that there were more “significant surprises” to come as part of the development.
In the past several days, targeted Israeli strikes have assassinated several top Tehran officials, dealing a devastating blow to the Iranian regime’s power structure as the war moves well into its third week.
Snip.
The assassinations come as Israel has ramped up its attacks targeting Basij checkpoints and infrastructure. The Guard’s Basij unit has notably been targeted in the war, as the paramilitary force has long been seen as the leading military unit behind the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters over the winter and behind repression in general against regime dissidents.
The Israeli military is targeting Basij personnel and facilities as the country seeks to weaken the Islamic regime enough to encourage Iranian citizens to topple the power structure.
“We’re undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people a chance to oust it,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday.
Next regime figure to get droned announced. “Hossein Dehghan, who was sanctioned in 2019 for his alleged role in an attack that killed 241 American troops, has been named to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani. According to a report by Iran International, Iran appointed former Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan on Thursday as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council,”
The Trump administration announced plans to sell more than $16.5 billion worth of radar systems, air defense equipment, and fighter aircraft weaponry to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan Thursday, as Iranian missiles and drones continued to hit sensitive infrastructure across the Gulf region.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an emergency waiver to bypass the mandatory congressional review period for the sales, the Pentagon said in its press release.
For the UAE, the State Department approved $2.1 billion worth of 10 FS-LIDS counter-drone interception systems, along with 240 Coyote backpack-carried drone interceptor systems, along with related sensors and munitions.
Another planned sale to the UAE includes a THAAD long-range discrimination radar, as well as Sentinel A-4 uplinkers and THAAD tactical operations and launch and control systems. A third sale set for Abu Dhabi includes $644 million worth of F-16 munitions and upgrades, including GBU-39/B small diameter bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munitions guidance systems (JDAMs), along with 400 AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles and eight guidance sections, the Pentagon said.
Kuwait is set to receive $8 billion in Lower-Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) radars, the administration further announced Thursday, along with a slew of accompanying electronic equipment. Jordan, meanwhile, is slated to receive $70.5 million worth of maintenance, logistics, and munitions support for its F-16s, C-130s and F-5 aircraft.
The planned sales come as Iran has targeted sensitive early warning and missile defense radar sensors in several US-aligned countries in the Gulf. Iran has also repeatedly struck civilian centers and, increasingly over the last 48 hours, oil and gas infrastructure with drones and missiles.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday praised Gulf states for their support for Washington’s war effort, saying Iran’s “reckless” pattern of counterattacks has brought some of those countries “squarely into our orbit.” He specifically named the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Speaking alongside Hegseth at the Pentagon, the US’ top-ranking general, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, said the US military will continue to work with Gulf states “to help them to improve any defensive capabilities that they need.”
Missile plant hit: “Karaj Surface-to-Surface Missile Plant” destroyed by U.S. strikes. This was March 1, but CENTCOM only released the images today.
Iran evidently managed to damage an F-35:
“Likely hit by a Qaem-118 short range SAM.” The pilot returned to base safely and made an emergency landing.
Once again, this was just what I was able to gather from various sources. If you think I’ve missed something, feel free to share it in the comments below.
More regime honchos dead, America and Irseal are (try to contain your shock) winning, a bad weekend for the KC-135, a Dem uber-lawyer backs Trump on Iran, and Israel is hunting Basij in the streets of Tehran. It’s your Iraq war update, incorporating news from late Friday until now.
Also, I keep getting the occasional 429 errors that require Bluehost support to snip long-running processes that they won’t give me access fix without handing them more money (which isn’t happening). An optimization scan brought up suggestions for improving performance, some highly impractical (no, I’m going to hand-optimize WordPress generated JavaScript), but one of the things spinning up long threads is Twitter embeds, so I’m going to try to do less of that and just link and summarize rather than embed. I’ve also updated and turned the caching plugin back on (turned off in a previous Bluehost troubleshooting session), so I’m hoping that will speed things up as well.
Israeli forces killed the Iranian regime’s security chief and de facto leader, Ali Larijani, in a Tuesday morning airstrike that has the potential to foment greater chaos within the Islamic Republic’s remaining leadership.
The IDF announced that Larijani was killed through “a precise strike” on his location near Tehran.
“His elimination adds to the elimination of dozens of senior commanders and leaders of the Iranian terror regime, who were eliminated by the IDF during Operation Roaring Lion, and constitutes a further blow to the Iranian regime’s abilities to manage and coordinate hostile activity against the State of Israel,” the IDF wrote in its statement.
After Ali Khamenei’s death, Larijani emerged as the country’s de facto leader, consolidating his power and overseeing combat operations against Israel and other Arab nations in the region. Along with his brother, Sadeq, Larijani waged outsized influence in the Iranian leadership and positioned himself as a successor after Khamenei’s death. He also served as secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, the body that orchestrated attacks on Israel and led efforts to violently suppress the Iranian people.
“During the most recent wave of protests against the Iranian terror regime, Larijani advanced violent enforcement measures and repression operations, and personally oversaw the massacre that was carried out against Iranian protestors,” the IDF said. “Larijani led the regime’s national-security coordination and directed its international activity, including engagement with members of the axis.”
Hilarious if true: “Missile hit Sepah Bank digital security center in Tehran.”
A missile strike hit the digital security center of Sepah Bank in Tehran early on Wednesday, according to information received by Iran International.
The building, located on Haghani Street, was destroyed in the attack while the bank was processing salary payments for military personnel.
The services at Sepah Bank and Melli Bank Iran remained widely disrupted for a second day, with online banking unavailable and only card-based services operating.
FACT 1: Iran’s missile capability has been functionally destroyed.
As of Day 6, Adm. Brad Cooper (CENTCOM) confirmed Iranian missile attacks declined roughly 90 percent since strikes began [ISW, March 5, 2026]. Per joint intelligence assessment (IDF/CENTCOM briefing), approximately 75% of all launchers destroyed; 100–200 remain. The IRGC Aerospace Force — Iran’s primary instrument of long-range conventional power projection — has been catastrophically degraded in nine days. “Hundreds” of warheads destroyed (conventional missile warheads — Iran has no deployed nuclear warheads). Defense industrial base under systematic attack. This is not a setback. This is the functional end of Iran’s power projection capability.
Fact 2 has been edited back from Iran’s nuclear program being 8-15 years to reconstitute, to being substantially destroyed for the the immediate future.
FACT 3: The Strait of Hormuz is closed — not by mines, but by insurance actuaries.
Seven of twelve International Group P&I Clubs cancelled war risk coverage on March 1–2, 2026. These seven clubs insure approximately 90% of the world’s ocean-going commercial tonnage. War risk premiums surged over 1,000%. The result: tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed from a pre-conflict baseline of approximately 138–153+ vessels per day (figures vary by data provider: Lloyd’s List/Kpler cite ~138; CSIS/Starboard cite 153+) to as few as 3 commercial transits recorded by Windward.ai AIS tracking on March 7; a near-total shutdown. Iran achieved a de facto blockade by making the risk-reward calculation of commercial transit economically irrational, without firing a single mine.
FACT 4: The US is the primary economic beneficiary of this crisis.
Brent crude has risen from $72/barrel (pre-conflict) to $106.81/barrel on March 8, 2026 (Day 9), with an intraday spike to $110 when Asian markets opened Sunday evening — the first time Brent has exceeded $100 in nearly four years, and up 50%+ from the $60/barrel that started 2026. WTI (US crude futures) hit $106.57 (+17.2% on the day). A new cascade has begun: Gulf producers are being forced to cut output as storage fills — Iraq’s production has collapsed 60%, UAE and Kuwait have begun cuts. Goldman Sachs warned Friday night that the Hormuz shock is now “17 times larger” than the peak Russia disruption of April 2022 and projects Brent could reach $150/barrel by end of March if Hormuz flows remain depressed. The US is a net petroleum exporter. Every $10/barrel increase in oil costs China and Japan hundreds of millions per day while benefiting US shale producers and LNG exporters (Cheniere, Shell, ExxonMobil). Qatar suspended LNG production. CSIS senior fellow Clayton Seigle: “A deficit of 20 million barrels per day is hitting global oil market balances with no sign of relief.” The Washington Post confirmed explicitly: “The conflict has hit Europe and Asia harder than the United States.”
FACT 5: Ali Khamenei is dead. His son is not a legitimate successor.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated February 28, 2026, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike on his Tehran compound — Israeli jets dropped 30 bombs in daylight with zero effective Iranian air defense response. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was named Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Mojtaba is a Hojjatoleslam (mid-ranking cleric), not an Ayatollah — his theological credentials are below what the constitution’s spirit requires. He has never held a formal government position. The regime has chosen dynastic succession in a self-described revolutionary republic. This legitimacy deficit is the long-term vulnerability. [CONFIRMED — NYT, Reuters, P1B]
DataRepublican assume there will be no land war. But she’s working from the assumption that such a land war will require occupying all of Iran, rather than, say, Tehran and various oil exporting ports.
FACT 7: China is losing 1.7 million barrels per day of discounted Iranian oil and faces secondary sanctions.
China bought approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports at sanction-discount prices. That supply is gone. Higher global oil prices hit China’s economy directly. The February 2026 Executive Order imposes tariffs on any country purchasing Iranian oil — aimed directly at Chinese “teapot” refineries in Shandong Province. The US simultaneously disrupted both of China’s discounted petro-state suppliers (Iran and Venezuela). China is watching US military capabilities through its satellites and reading the Taiwan signal.
FACT 8: The Mosaic Defense kept Iran fighting but cannot project offensive power.
Iran’s 31 autonomous provincial IRGC commands, each with pre-delegated launch authority, are firing pre-authorized strike packages without central coordination. This means the regime cannot be decapitated; missiles keep flying. But the same decentralization that enables survival prevents the complex multi-axis offensive operations that would actually threaten US interests at scale. The 90% launch decline is the empirical proof: what remains is dispersed residue, not a coherent military campaign. [ASSESSED — CEPA, P1B, P2A mosaic paradox]
FACT 9: The Iranian economy was already at collapse threshold before the war began.
Pre-war data: rial at 1.45 million per US dollar (December 2025 peak); 49% inflation; negative GDP growth; government budget deficit at 6%+ of GDP. The January 2026 protests — the largest in Iranian history, with 3,000–30,000 killed by the regime — were triggered directly by rial collapse. The war adds destroyed infrastructure, disrupted trade, severed oil revenue, and accelerating secondary sanctions. The economic collapse is not a future risk; it is an ongoing reality that predates Operation Epic Fury.
FACT 10: The Axis of Resistance has been substantially degraded.
Syria land bridge severed (Assad fell December 8, 2024). Hezbollah “dramatically weakened” by 2024 Israeli offensive; Nasrallah killed September 2024; Iran-Hezbollah land corridor gone. Hamas catastrophically degraded after 18+ months of Israeli ground operations; IRGC’s Hamas portfolio manager Saeed Izadi killed June 2025. Houthis’ stockpiles reduced by Operation Rough Rider (2025); Houthis “staying out of the Iran-US fight for now” (Al Jazeera, March 7, 2026). Iraqi PMF taking active US strikes. Iran’s 40-year investment in regional proxy power has been substantially degraded — not dismantled. Hezbollah retains organizational structure, partial rocket inventory, and political control of southern Lebanon. Hamas retains organizational elements outside Gaza.
I feel that most of this is probably correct. And that’s just the topline analysis; there’s a lot more in-depth data and analysis at the link. (Hat tip: Borepatch.)
You know who likes the chances of America and Israel winning the war? Al Jazeera.
When you look at what has actually happened to Iran’s principal instruments of power – its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture – the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades….
The campaign has moved through two distinct phases. The first suppressed Iran’s air defences, decapitated its command and control, and degraded its missile and drone launch infrastructure. By March 2, US Central Command announced local air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, achieved without the confirmed loss of a single American or Israeli combat aircraft.
The second phase, now under way, targets Iran’s defence industrial base: missile production facilities, dual-use research centres and the underground complexes where remaining stockpiles are stored. This is not aimless bombing. It is a methodical campaign to ensure that what has been destroyed cannot be rebuilt.
Iran now faces a strategic dilemma that tightens every day. If it fires its remaining missiles, it exposes launchers that are promptly destroyed. If it conserves them, it forfeits the ability to impose costs of the war. Missile and drone launch data suggest Iran is rationing its remaining capacity for politically timed salvoes rather than sustaining operational tempo.
This is a force managing decline, not projecting strength.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is dominating the critical commentary. US Senator Chris Murphy has called it evidence that President Donald Trump misjudged Iran’s capacity to retaliate. CNN has described it as proof that the administration has lost control of the war’s escalation.
The economic pain is real: Oil prices have surged, a record 400 million barrels of oil will be released from global reserves, and Gulf states are facing drone and missile strikes on their energy infrastructure.
But this framing inverts the strategic logic. Closing the strait was always Iran’s most visible retaliatory card, and always a wasting asset. About 90 percent of Iran’s own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait.
China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut. Every day the blockade continues, Iran severs its own economic lifeline and alienates the one major power that has consistently shielded it at the United Nations. The closure does not just hurt the global economy; it accelerates Iran’s isolation.
Meanwhile, the naval assets Iran needs to sustain the blockade – fast-attack boats, drones, mines, shore-based antiship missiles – are being degraded daily. Its naval bases at Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar have been severely damaged.
The question is not whether the strait reopens but when and whether Iran retains any naval capacity to contest it. Critics compare the challenge of escorting a hundred tankers daily to an impossible logistical burden. But you do not need to escort tankers through a strait if the adversary no longer has the means to threaten them. That is the operational trajectory.
Strait of Hormuz update: “War risk insurance peaks at 5% of hull value. Insurance costs reach highest level since Iran-Iraq Tanker War (1980s). Oil tanker valued at $100M now costs $5M to insure for single transit. Strait effectively closed despite technical navigation possibility.”
“Reports indicate clashes between security forces and citizens around Chaharbagh Square in Tehran. The sound of gunfire can be heard.” Not the only area where such clashes are reported.
Five KC-135 tankers damaged in an Iranian missile strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia:
Suchomimus notes that there’s simply not a lot of space to park at that base, so there’s going to be risk parking so many tankers (or other large aircraft) there. None of the planes were destroyed, and all are being repaired.
Iranian hovercraft base at Bandar Abbas hit:
I don’t get to use the “Hovercraft” tag nearly enough…
Famous Democrat lawyer David Boies thinks Trump is doing the right thing in Iran and “Democrats should get behind the President, and make sure that he finishes the job.”
Boies, a Democrat, argues passionately in favor of the war, and scolds people—mainly other Democrats—for, in his mind, letting their dislike of President Trump affect their opinion of attacking Iran. As he writes, “If we believe that Iran presents a serious threat, we need to support the president on this issue. There’s plenty to disagree with him about, and we don’t need to like or admire him. But on Iran we should be on common ground.”
Another successful Iranian strike (or possibly Iranian-linked militia) in Iraq:
BIG: A drone strike hit the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s Green Zone, damaging or disabling the embassy’s C-RAM air defense system (C-RAM's radar) and striking a helipad.
