Like most Democrats, I reacted to the stunning 2016 election of Donald Trump with a combination of confusion and dread. After all, Hillary Clinton was the favorite and, to Democrats like me, a Trump victory seemed to portend certain economic disaster, nuclear war, and pretty much the end of America as we knew it.
But now nearly two years into his administration, Trump has presided over a “winning streak” that includes a booming economy and stock market, an unemployment level at a nearly 50-year low, two Supreme Court appointments, no new foreign wars or domestic terrorist attacks emanating from abroad, a significant degree of progress on trade relations with Canada and Mexico, a “needed reset” on the China relationship, and the prospect of peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Perhaps it is time that even his opponents reconsider Trump. Does Trump have a strategy that we can describe? Is Trump a return of Richard Nixon, of Ronald Reagan, or of something else entirely? After several months of watching the news without gaining any answers, I finally canceled my cable subscription and sought out other sources. I found some insights in unexpected places.
Trump’s presidency marks a return to realpolitik and great power politics.
Snip.
A third insight was from the unlikeliest place: the critically acclaimed animated show, “Rick and Morty.” During Trump’s campaign, his supporters frequently talked about how funny the candidate was. This humor was lost on most of my left-leaning peers. But “Rick and Morty” showed me what I have may been missing. Here is a popular TV show about a mad scientist Rick, an amoral, sociopathic man who considers himself the smartest man in the universe and tells dirty jokes in front of his grandson Morty. The slapstick, low-brow, and nihilistic insults and dirty humor of “Rick and Morty” — much like Trump — resemble some of the comedic greats from the decades prior to the 1990s: “The Honeymooners,” “Benny Hill,” “Abbott and Costello,” “The Three Stooges,” and “I Love Lucy.” These comedic devices can be traced back hundreds of years to Asian and European theater, which used slapstick, puns, insults, and innuendo.
Compare that oeuvre to the 1990s-2000s, during which comedy was more satirical, knowing, self-referential, meta, and smug. This idea is far from perfect, but examples of satire that use slapstick as well include “The Daily Show,” “The Colbert Report,” “South Park,” “Team America: World Police”, and Sacha Baron Cohen’s parodies. American society today seems to be witnessing a return of what columnist Noah Smith calls “goofy” humor and a decline of “knowingly sarcastic” humor. Even The New Yorker complained that the 2018 Emmys were too smug and later described Trump’s rallies unfavorably as a “vaudeville routine.” Perhaps our shift toward a reversion in history also means we are seeing a cultural reversion as well. Smugness has become politically tone deaf.
Snip.
The Trump Doctrine takes previous policy assumptions and turns them on their head. Trump’s “America First” approach is a reversion to the idea of realpolitik and great power competition. It is better suited to a moment in which American power is much less dominant. The president takes each state-to-state relationship on its own terms. That’s why he’s often antagonistic with allies and friendly with threatening dictators. The consequences of insulting friendly countries, such as Canada, might be hurt feelings in exchange for better trade terms, while souring relations with an antagonistic one, such as North Korea, could result in serious security threats. He pursues the optimal outcome in a utilitarian sense rather than follow previous rules about diplomatic etiquette. Trump keeps his enemies even closer than his friends, while previous presidents did the opposite. Niccolo Machiavelli might have been familiar with these tactics.
Trump’s diplomatic method can be reduced to the four “B’s”: bullying, bargaining, burden-sharing, and bragging. He starts an interaction by bullying the subject — usually on Twitter, seeks a chance to sit down with the target to bargain as hard as possible toward what Trump may see as a more reciprocal relationship of burden-sharing, and then finally brags about whatever the results are. Trump treats all relationships as transactional, deploying tit-for-tat tactics toward achieving his goal of “reciprocity.” His message is that he wants to make America great again but does not spend much time lecturing or moralizing to foreigners. Finally, his use of insults, jokes, and slapstick, physical humor creates an image of honesty and authenticity with his supporters. Overall, these techniques and worldviews are becoming increasingly common around the world, including with the leaders of countries as diverse as Turkey, the Philippines, Russia, Israel, Mexico — and potentially Brazil.
Trump described his realpolitik-with-no-sacred-cows approach during the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September: “America’s policy of principled realism means we will not be held hostage to old dogmas, discredited ideologies, and so-called experts who have been proven wrong over the years, time and time again. This is true not only in matters of peace, but in matters of prosperity.”
Overall, Trump’s approach represents a reversion to a style of statecraft that flips previous approaches. Technocracy, meritocracy, and bureaucratic approaches are giving way to establishing top-level personal rapport, trust, and loyalty. Free trade ideology is giving way to trade as a means to enrichment. Building institutions gives way to questioning the utility of each institution. Moral diplomacy gives way to talking to anyone who will bargain. Careful speeches give way to saying anything that gets results. Saving sacred cows gives way to killing them or threatening to do so. Open markets give way to using U.S. markets, military, and migration as bargaining chips. Every relationship is subject to maximum leverage of what is possible.
West is nothing if not independent. He doesn’t need the approval of the Democratic establishment or the usual suspects among the liberal Hollywood elite. He is untethered from the traditional liberal gatekeepers in the same way Trump was untethered from the Republican establishment as a presidential candidate. There is a reason that the Democrats and their allies in the media insult, marginalize, ridicule and try to “Uncle Tom” West. It is obvious they are afraid of him and the discussion he might start.
“Beto O’Rourke Raised Record Breaking $38 Million in 3Q.” And he’s still losing. Just imagine if Democrats had used that money to protect endangered incumbent senators instead…
O’Rourke’s “extraordinary political success” is illusionary. His national popularity is contingent on aesthetics and mass of coverage. It is merely that Beto looks and acts like the type of guy producers at most cable news networks and talk shows think—or more precisely, wish—a senator would look and act like. Unlike, say, Cruz (nearly two years older than Beto), who is always blathering about the Constitution or whatnot.
It’s not as if O’Rourke is a special talent by any measure. His speeches and talking points are just as vacuous and predictable as those of any other middling politician. His positions on guns and abortion—and a multitude of other issues—are in lockstep with his party, not the state. O’Rourke has never offered any substantively impressive policy ideas. He’s not led on any notable issues in the House. He’s remarkably unremarkable.
The son of a onetime Republican county judge and a longtime furniture store owner, the Democratic congressman from El Paso married into the family of one of his hometown’s most prominent developers and has assembled real estate investments worth millions.
Congress is rife with rich people, but O’Rourke had a 2015 net worth of about $9 million, ranking 51st out of 435 House members, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics. That’s more than double the $3.8 million worth of his Republican opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz, who ranked 41st of 100 senators.
Think Progress alum thinly disguised as a journalist does 50 Shades of Beto. Ick.
The hits keep coming:
The lies flow easily from 'Beto':
Beto O'Rourke's Mother, Who He Says Is A 'Lifelong Republican,' Donated To Obama, Voted In 15 Of 17 Democratic Primaries https://t.co/I5QC9SEjlF
The Russian government kills journalists, among others. I do not recall the Washington Post protesting on this basis the Obama administration’s “reset” of relations with Putin’s government or Obama’s promise to be more “flexible” with Russia after his reelection. Nor, as far as I remember, did the Post cite Russia’s murderous ways as a reason not to farm out to Putin enforcement of the “red line” against the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Cuba’s treatment of journalists and others has been atrocious. Yet, the mainstream media supported the Obama administration when it radically reset U.S. relations with Cuba without insisting on any change in the regime’s treatment of dissidents.
What are the differences between Russia/Cuba and Saudi Arabia? I see two. First, Russia and Cuba are adversaries of America. Saudi Arabia is an ally.
For the sane, this difference would, if anything, cut in favor of the Saudis. For the left, it cuts against them.
Second, the Trump administration has very visibly allied itself with Saudi Arabia as a means of countering Iran and achieving other American objectives in the Middle East. Thus, the Khashoggi slaying provides the mainstream media with the opportunity to do what it does best — hammer President Trump.
In my view, the Khashoggi slaying should not cause America substantially to alter its foreign policy. Our relatively close relationship with Saudi Arabia is predicated, as it should be, on mutual interests and mutual adversaries. Either the geo-political predicate justifies the relationship or it doesn’t.
1. Vilification (Alt-right, racist…) 2. Guilt by association ("Did the *Koch brothers* fund this?") 3. Misrepresentation ("So basically, you think trans ppl should just *die*…") 4. Reduction to privilege anxiety ("White fragility!") https://t.co/tOPJGl0zWp
Florida man does it again. Not only is he a registered sex offender who hired a federal informant for a mad-bombing spree aimed at target stores, he did it all for…making money off shorting the stock?
The LCRA is now projecting that Lake Travis may rise to between 705-710 ft. elevation by Friday, approaching the all-time record crest of 710.4 ft. from Christmas, 1991.
Four flood gates are now open, and the LCRA says they may open four more Thursday, which would exceed the previous record of six open floodgates during a 1957 flood.
Additional rainfall is forecast through Thursday, with 1-2 inches possible, along with some isolated 4 inch totals. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded from the Hill Country to the Austin metro area.
The LCRA is warning of serious flooding, and encouraging people to take precautions to protect life and property.
Eight open floodgates on Mansfield dam means eight open gates on Tom Miller damn just north of downtown Austin. Dont be surprised if you see a repeat of that “Steve Ray Vaughn Statue Flooded” pictures we saw during the 2013 flash floods.
Keep an eye on road closures, pay attention to the evacuation notices, and pack your bugout bag and be ready to go if you’re in low-lying areas or anywhere near the river.
Here’s late blues guitar legend John Campbell with “When the Levee Breaks”:
Update: LCRA says no additional floodgates need to be opened today: “LCRA will NOT need to open additional floodgates at Mansfield Dam today. It is still possible we will need to open up to four additional floodgates over the next few days.”
The Farm to Market 2900 bridge in Kingsland over Lake LBJ (just before the Llano and Colorado rivers meet) has collapsed:
Authorities have evacuated anyone within a quarter-mile of the river, including large portions of Marble Falls. The Lower Colorado River Authority opened the Mansfield and Tom Miller dams at noon.
Nor is the hazard limited to the river:
Williamson County conducted two water rescues because of flooding Tuesday morning. One was a vehicle in high water off CR 251 in Andice, and both people were transported to a local hospital.
The second was a school bus off CR 177 in Leander. The driver and one student on broad were rescued without injuries.
I would tell you to check the low water crossing map for the Austin area, but there’s no need: Every low water crossing in Austin is closed, flooded or on caution right now:
The cliched phrase of choice is there for a reason:
Pay attention to the evacuation notices, and pack your bugout bag and be ready to go if you’re in low-lying areas or anywhere near the river.
As for myself, I’m fine. The last time I looked at a topology map I was some 85′ higher than the Mansfield Dam spillway, so I’m safe unless we get a flood of Biblical proportion.
While U.S. attention was focused on Hurricane Florence, Typhoon Mangkhut, a much stronger storm, “a rare No. 10 typhoon warning signal,” was making landfall in China:
Mangkhut made landfall in Guangdong, a coastal province of southeast China, borders Hong Kong and Macau, on Sunday, packing wind speeds of more than 100 mph.
The national meteorological center said southern China “will face a severe test caused by wind and rain” and urged officials to prepare for a disaster.
The Hong Kong Observatory said Mangkhut had weakened, but its intense rainbands brought heavy downfall and high winds.
A compilation of footage from the storm:
My impression is that the building code in Hong Kong is much stricter than in other parts of China thanks to the legacy of British rule. It’s very possible that there will be more extensive damage in Guangdong, the heart of China’s high tech assembly industry.
I suppose that it’s too much to ask that Mangkhut to drive Mischief Reef completely beneath the waves…
EU: “Bad Hungary! We are going to sanction you for thought crimes against the European elite!” Poland: “Hey EU! Get stuffed!” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
Bureaucrats try to strip the title of heroes from the defenders of the Alamo, and the elected state board of education stops them cold. (By the way, I recently watched John Wayne’s version of The Alamo, and it’s a much better film than its reputation.)
And it’s not just missed sleep: Trump Derangement Syndrome made a Democrat attempt to get all stabby on a Republican congressional candidate in California.
R.S. McCain on modern dating: “Guys, when women say they want you to ‘share your feelings’? Don’t believe it. All that stuff you read about how women want men who are ‘sensitive’ and ‘vulnerable’? This is a gigantic load of crap. Don’t fall for it.”
“Author of ‘How to Murder Your Husband’ Charged With Murdering Her Husband.” What are the odds?
“Facebook has banned Brandon Straka, the former Democrat who founded the ‘Walk Away’ campaign and its viral hashtag #WalkAway, after he linked to Infowars.com – which has been banned from the platform.” Evidently even linking or mentioning an official “unperson” can get you banned…
Via Ann Althouse comes this dramatic depiction of just what a 6′ and 9′ storm surge looks like:
“Google Rep Issues Heartfelt Apology For Anti-Conservative Bias While Wearing ‘Kill All Republicans‘ T-Shirt.” “We want Google to be completely free from bias, even against Republicans who need to die violent deaths for disagreeing with us. That’s what inclusivity is all about.”
I saw this over at Say Uncle and I may have to pick some up:
100% of Puerto Rico is without power following Hurricane Maria.
Obama Administration official Samantha Power asked for over 260 unmaskings of American citizens. “She continued to seek identifying information about Americans caught up in incidental surveillance right up to President Trump’s inauguration.” (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
“House IT Worker At Center Of Scandal Allegedly Abused Three Muslim Women.” “Multiple women in relationships with Imran Awan, the indicted former IT aide for Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, have recently called Virginia law enforcement and alleged being abused by him, police reports obtained under Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act show.”
“The mainstream media failed to see the rise of Donald Trump in 2016. Now it’s overlooking another grassroots movement that may soon be of equal significance— the growing number of liberals “taking the red pill.” People of all ages and ethnicities are posting YouTube videos describing “red pill moments”—personal awakenings that have caused them to reject leftist narratives imbibed since childhood from friends, teachers, and the news and entertainment media.”
“Evergreen State College has settled a tort claim against it from embattled Professor Bret Weinstein and his wife, Professor Heather Heying, for $500,000, according to an email sent to faculty Friday evening.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
Article on the decline of NFL ratings offers and explanation in the comments section: “One after another, cogent, thoughtful comments clearly stating the exact reason that life long NFL fans have turned off the TV, dropped their cable subscription, and moved on.” Sample: “There will be no NFL at my house until the employment of players that disrespect our flag and anthem is terminated.”
“Scientists create world’s first ‘molecular robot’ capable of building molecules.” No indication these 150-atom “robots” can contain programming or self-replicate, so we’re still a long way from K. Eric Drexler’s nanotechnology…
Unlike with Hurricane Harvey, I don’t know the territory well enough to provide any insider insight on the storm. But it’s a big story, and I have a few tidbits of interest.
Current forecasts have Irma sparing the Miami area the brunt of the storm, instead being expected to track up the west coast of Florida. Good for Miami (though it will still get plenty of wind and rain), bad for St. Petersburg and Tampa. It also means people in Tallahassee, Pensacola and Mobile better start prepping for evacuation or riding out the storm, depending on local authorities and how the storm develops.
Here’s Miami Herald writer Martin Merzer’s classic guide for reporters on what to do while covering a hurricane. “Don’t use your own car. Rent a car. Despite company policy, take every form of insurance offered by the rental company. Don’t park the car under a lovely old tree or in a low spot near the motel.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)
And here’s a storm route projection video from Mobile, Alabama weatherman Alan Seals, who’s fast becoming the weatherman of choice for hurricane watchers for his clear, concise, no-nonsense delivery.
Though it may take up to two weeks for all the flood waters to disappear, Houston is showing some signs of normalcy, such as opening most freeways. Governor Greg Abbott said that Harvey may have inflicted $180 billion in damage on the state.
As thousands of private citizens bravely responded with their individually owned boats and resources to help the victims of Hurricane Harvey, nearby Travis County Sheriff Sally Hernandez waited to mobilize a single boat crew to assist with the disaster.
Sheriff Hernandez did not authorize mobilizing deputies to assist with rescue efforts until Wednesday – waiting on a formal ‘mutual aid request’ before mobilizing. The request guarantees that departments will be reimbursed for costs incurred and also serves as part of an organized effort.
The gas shortage is real (and we’ve been feeling it up here in Austin as well), but I expect it to be temporary, as Gulf Coast refinaries closed during the storm are already coming back online. Check Gas Buddy to see if gas is available in your area, though they don’t seem to have Sam’s or HEB, two places I typically buy gas, and both of whcih have been out this week.)
If your liberal Facebook friends are passing off satire as real news, let them know that Joel Osteen’s Lakewood Church was not screening refugees based on tithing.
This is what America is all about. Video from a few days ago from Hurricane Harvey. Never lose faith in the American people, no matter what. pic.twitter.com/aCZCWk2ecp
Welcome to a short, extra late Hurricane/flooding update, since I was busy much of the day working on this giant post about my library on my non-political blog.
Water levels in the Addicks and Barker reservoirs reached record levels early Tuesday, said Jeff Lindner, Meteorologist at Harris County Flood Control District.
Water in the Addicks Reservoir reached 108 feet early Tuesday, causing it to flow over the top of the spillway.
The overflowing reservoir comes days after authorities announced controlled releases of water from both of the inundated dams.
Officials with the Army Corps of Engineers expect the Barker Reservoir will also have uncontrolled releases in the coming days. Uncontrolled releases from both dams are expected to flow into Buffalo Bayou and increase the waterway’s already high levels.
The water spilling out of the Addicks Reservoir Tuesday morning will likely reach subdivisions north of Tanner, left of west Eldridge Parkway to West Little York, and over to Beltway 8, Lindner said.
Affected subdivisions include:
Twin Lakes
Eldridge Park
Lakes on Eldridge
Lakes on Eldridge North
Independence Farms
Tanner Heights
Heritage Business Park
One third of Friendswood homes are still flooded.
Flooding along the Brazos River in Brazoria County is expected to happen today.
Last night mandatory evacuations for Inverness Forest and Northgate in north Harris County were issued due to Cypress Creek flooding.
Two dumbasses trying looting homes following Harvey. Both get shot. Which part of “Texas” was unclear?
The Houston Texans final preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys has been moved to Arlington.
Houston Astros to Texas Rangers: “Hey, we got this 1000 Year Flood thing going on here. Want to swap our upcoming home-and-home series?” Rangers: “Die in a flood.”
The officer, an HPD veteran who has been with the department for more than 30 years, was in his patrol car driving to work downtown Sunday morning when he got trapped in high water at I-45 and the Hardy Toll Road.
Search and rescue crews are currently recovering his body. The department has not yet formally notified the officer’s family.
Hence the lack of a name at this point.
“The officer’s death is the 15th fatality in Texas claimed by Hurricane Harvey.”
Update 3
Bridge collapse in east Houston:
ALERT from @HCSOTexas: Bridge over Greens Bayou collapse at Woodforest Blvd and Normandy, near Cloverleaf area
3:49 p.m.: How much of Harris County is actually covered by water?
According to meteorologist Jeff Lindner, between 20 and 30 percent of Harris County is under water as of Tuesday afternoon.
Harris County is 1,777 square miles. Let’s take the low end of Lindner’s estimation — 20 percent. That would be 355.4 square miles.
Or:
Bigger than the entire city of Austin.
Bigger than 15 times the size of Manhattan, which is about 23 square miles.
Bigger than 7 times the size of San Francisco, which is about 47 square miles.
(@PoliticalShort) 