The redistricting wars escalate to previously unseen heights, Paxton launches investigation of Democratic orgs backing the quorum busters, Ukraine hits a lot more Russian infrastructure, another spite prosecution from Travis County’s Soros-baked DA, and Saturday Night Live is just as profitable as NBC’s other late night shows.
President Donald Trump has directed the Commerce Department to conduct a new census that excludes illegal immigrants from its population count.
“I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Tuesday morning. “People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”
The Constitution mandates a census be conducted every ten years to apportion congressional districts. Since the first census was conducted in 1790, the count has reflected each state’s total population, including noncitizens.
It’s unclear whether Trump can instruct that illegal aliens be excluded from the census without the approval of Congress, as Article I Section 2 of the Constitution empowers the legislature to determine when and how censuses are conducted.
When Trump tried to end the practice of counting illegal aliens in the census in his first term, he argued that the executive branch has discretionary power to determine who qualifies as a U.S. resident for apportionment purposes. The move faced legal challenges and was ultimately overturned by Joe Biden before it could take effect.
Because House districts are apportioned “according to [states’] respective Numbers,” high-immigration states could lose congressional seats and electoral votes if illegal immigrants are not counted in the census. If noncitizens had been left out of the 2020 census, California, Florida, and Texas would have each lost a congressional seat, and Alabama, Minnesota, and Ohio would have retained one seat each they otherwise would have lost, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.
Maybe this is a cunning ploy to force Democrats to argue before the Supreme Court that illegal aliens count as 3/5ths of a person…
Meanwhile, in Texas, the redistricting battle is white-hot following the latest Democratic State Representative’s quorum break. “AG Paxton Launches Investigation Into Soros-Funded Texas Majority PAC. This is the second investigation launched by Paxton in as many days seeking information from groups alleged to be supporting the Texas House Democrat quorum break.”
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has announced the launch of a formal investigation into Texas Majority PAC—funded by leftist billionaire George Soros—for its “role in potentially unlawful financial coordination and bribery of Democratic legislators who fled Texas to break quorum.”
The Texas Majority PAC was founded by former staffers from Robert “Beto” O’Rourke’s unsuccessful campaign for governor and has since gained national attention. The PAC is largely funded by leftist billionaire George Soros. Latest reports indicate it has around $600,000 cash-on-hand.
Paxton described the PAC as “radical,” with a mission aligned with other left-leaning organizations aiming to influence Texas politics.
Paxton alleges that the PAC played a “coordinating role” in assisting with illegal fundraising operations and possibly bribing Texas House members. These actions, Paxton maintains, may have incentivized lawmakers to abandon their legislative responsibilities, an act that—if financially rewarded—could constitute bribery under state law.
“If Texas lawmakers are bowing to the Soros Slush Fund rather than the will of the voters, Texans deserve to know. Getting financial payouts under the table to abandon your legislative duties is bribery,” Paxton stated. “Texas Majority PAC’s actions seem to indicate that it may be using its Soros-funded resources to break the law and fund the illegal abandonment of public office. If that’s the case as determined by this investigation, there will be a heavy price to pay.”
As part of the ongoing investigation, Paxton’s office has issued a formal Request to Examine to Texas Majority PAC seeking documents and records related to the alleged activities.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is launching an investigation into Beto O’Rourke’s organization Powered by People for allegedly “bankrolling” the Texas House Democrats’ ongoing quorum break.
The Office of the Attorney General (OAG) asserts that according to “public reports,” Powered by People is potentially one the top funders of the recent quorum bust by Texas Democrats, who left the state in protest to House Republicans’ proposed redistricting map — alleging racist motivations and unconstitutional actions.
Paxton said in a press release on Wednesday afternoon, “Any Democrat coward breaking the law by taking a Beto Bribe will be held accountable. Texas cannot be bought.”
“I look forward to thoroughly reviewing all of the documents and communications obtained throughout this investigation,” he said.
The OAG ordered on Tuesday that all quorum-breaking House Democrats must return by Friday morning when the House gavels in, per House Speaker Dustin Burrows’ (R-Lubbock) declaration, or else face removal from the membership.
Did they return? They did not. Hence:
“Paxton Files Texas Supreme Court Petition to Declare 13 Democratic House Seats Vacant.”
The Texas House again failed to meet a quorum on Friday afternoon, and now Attorney General Ken Paxton is taking additional legal action against 13 Democratic members that fled to other states.
Paxton has targeted state Reps. Ron Reynolds (D-Missouri City), Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin), Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), James Talarico (D-Austin), Gene Wu (D-Houston), Lulu Flores (D-Austin), Mihaela Plesa (D-Dallas), Suleman Lalani (D-Sugar Land), Chris Turner (D-Grand Prairie), Ana-Maria Rodriguez Ramos (D-Richardson), Jessica Gonzalez (D-Dallas), John Bucy (D-Austin), and Christina Morales (D-Houston).
This follows Abbott petitioning the Texas Supreme Court to vacate Wu’s seat.
I’m in Bucy’s district (TX-136), so I could theoretically run for his seat, assuming I was a glutton for punishment…
The petition was filed with the Supreme Court of Texas (SCOTX), with the intention to have their seats declared vacant.
“Because Respondents have abandoned their offices as State Representatives, the Attorney General, on behalf of the State, seeks a declaration that those positions are vacant.”
The petition goes on to state that because the Democratic members named in the suit “have announced that they refuse to perform the duties of their offices, they have abandoned them, and this Court should declare their offices vacant.”
It adds, “These actions aim to prevent the Legislature from exercising the legislative power conferred on it by the Texas Constitution, Tex. Const. art. III, § 1, depriving the people of Texas of a functioning government and, if allowed to continue, would create ‘an absolute supermajoritarian check on the legislature’s ability to pass legislation opposed by a minority faction.’”
“Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we must zoom out if we are to understand the pattern that we are gathered here to explore, because the pattern is larger than federal health agencies and the COVID cartel. If we do zoom out and ask, what are they hiding?”
“The answer becomes as obvious as it is disturbing. They are hiding everything. It will be jarring for many to hear a scientist speak with such certainty. It should be jarring. We are trained to present ideas with caution as hypotheses in need of a test. But in this case, I have tested the idea, and I am as certain of it as I am of anything. We are being systematically blinded.”
“It is the only explanation I have encountered that will not only describe the present, but also, in my experience, predicts the future with all but perfect accuracy. The pattern is a simple one. You can see it clearly and test it yourself. Every single institution dedicated to public truth-seeking is under simultaneous attack.”
“They are all in a state of collapse. Every body of experts fails utterly. Individual experts who resist or worse in an attempt to return their institutions to sanity, they find themselves coerced into submission. If they won’t buckle, they are marginalized or forced out.”
“Those outside of the institutions who either seek truth alone or who build new institutions with a truth seeking mission face merciless attacks on both their integrity and expertise. often by the very institutions whose mission they refuse to abandon. There is a saying in military circles, once is a mistake, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action.”
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will publicly announce on Thursday its new proposed rule banning Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements to hospitals that provide sex-trait modifications to minors, National Review has learned.
If finalized, the rule — “Medicare and Medicaid Programs; Hospital Condition of Participation: Prohibiting Sex Trait Modifications for Children” — will “effectively end sex-trait modifications for minors nationally,” a senior administration official told NR.
Thursday’s announcement marks the beginning of the process of convening meetings with Health and Human Services officials to flesh out the language and formalize the rule. CMS sits under HHS.
So no longer will our tax dollars be spent mutilating children. Progress!
The Austin-American Statesman does some actual investigation of Austin city government, and actually finds a bit of improper waste and fraud.
Austin’s top administrator, City Manager T.C. Broadnax, continued what had become a costly habit: charging lunches to his city credit card on a near-daily basis.
Broadnax, one of the highest-paid city managers in the country with an annual salary of $488,800, expensed about 150 lunches during his first year on the job at a cost of about $3,300, according to an American-Statesman review of city discretionary spending. His go-to spot was Sweetgreen, a pricey salad chain where he averaged $20 per order.
Broadnax is not the only city leader who regularly dined on taxpayer dollars in what appears to be a violation of city policy, the Statesman review found. And the spending went beyond food.
The review covered food and travel spending records from the City Manager’s Office and City Council offices from May 2024 to May 2025 — the first year of Broadnax’s tenure — and found charges for business-class flights, high-end dinners and retirement parties costing thousands of dollars.
The Statesman also tallied thousands of dollars spent on snacks and beverages, protein shakes and even chewing gum.
Overall, the review painted a picture of a widespread culture of lavish spending at City Hall among both the city’s top appointed executives and elected leaders who approve the budget.
Experts who reviewed the newspaper’s findings and city spending policies said many charges likely violated internal rules or common ethics guidelines.
“Bring a sandwich for Christ’s sake,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
If that’s the worst they found, I’d suggest they never scrutinized Austin’s homeless services…
Ukraine hit two Russian oil refineries, including Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Samara and one in Ryazan.
And two more , one in Kstovo as well as the Adler oil depot in Sochi.
And another, this one the Afipsky oil refinery, where they evidently hit the cracking/fractional distillation tower, the most essential part of an oil refinery.
And another railyard, namely Tatsinskaya railroad yard in Rostov.
Hackers attacked Russia’s Aeroflot, cancelling lots of flights. All transportation options in Russia seem chancy these days…
A state audit found that a Sacramento area charter school received more than $180 million in funding it was not eligible for, engaged in wasteful spending, and assigned teachers to classes they did not have the credentials to teach.
The report from the California State Auditor found that Highlands Community Charter and Technical Schools did not meet the conditions set for its funding and also did not comply with state law in calculating daily attendance.
The auditor also claims that Twin Rivers Unified School District failed to provide sufficient oversight of the charter school.
According to the audit, Highlands receives K-12 funding despite serving adult students under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. According to the school’s website, it serves adults ages 22 and up at no cost, providing a high school diploma program, English language classes and career technical education.
“By not offering the required amount of instruction at the schoolsite, requiring students to attend class at the schoolsite for the minimum amount of time required by law, or meeting requirements for nonclassroom-based instruction, HCCS was not eligible to receive the $177 million in K–12 funding it received in fiscal years 2022–23 and 2023–24. Further, Highlands received more than an estimated $5 million in overpayments, of which $3.5 million is in addition to the $177 million in disallowed funding, by not complying with state law in calculating its average daily attendance,” the audit states.
The audit also alleges that Highlands engaged in “questionable transactions,” including violating prohibitions against gifts of public funds, not seeking board approval for some contracts and purchases, lacked clear hiring and compensation policies, hired and promoted unqualified individuals and in one instance, entered a contract for mentor services with the spouse of a Highlands director.
The auditor’s report also indicates poor student performance under Highlands.
“HCCS had a graduation rate of 2.8 percent in fiscal year 2023–24,” the audit noted. “CDE determined that Highlands’ schools’ graduation rates were so low that they dropped the overall statewide graduation rate for the 2023–24 school year by more than half of a percentage point, from 87 percent to 86.4 percent.”
One possible reason for the poor student performance, the audit posits, is the student-to-teacher ratio, which was about 51 students for every one teacher.
Euroweenies: Lift the seige of Gaza or we’ll recognize a Palestinian state. Israel: I guess we’ll just have to occupy all of Gaza.
“Majority of Senate Dems Vote to Block Arms Sales to Israel.” Hatred of Israel (and, indeed, all Jews) is a central belief for the Democrat Party’s ideological core.
Vice President JD Vance has weighed in on the left’s demented response to American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney ads and their unhinged claims that the “good jeans” pun is really Nazi eugenics propaganda.
“My political advice to the Democrats is continue to tell everybody who thinks Sydney Sweeney is attractive is a Nazi,” Vance joked in an appearance on the “Ruthless” podcast Friday.
“That appears to be their actual strategy,” Vance further highlighted, adding “It actually reveals something pretty interesting about the Dems, though.”
Which is that you have like a normal, all-American beautiful girl doing like a normal jeans ad, right?” The Vice President continued, “To try to sell, you know, sell jeans to kids in America, and they have managed to so unhinge themselves over this thing.”
“You guys, did you learn nothing from the November 2024 election?” An exasperated Vance asked.
“Like, I actually thought that one of the lessons they might take is we’re going to be less crazy,” he continued.
“The lesson they have apparently taken is we’re going to attack people as Nazis for thinking Sydney Sweeney is beautiful,” Vance urged.
“Great strategy, guys. That’s how you’re going to win the midterms. Especially young American men,” he further emphasised.
“Their course correction lasted about 30 seconds,” Ruthless co-host Josh Holmes chimed in.
“That’s right, [it] lasted 30 seconds, somehow has gotten even crazier,” Vance responded, adding “it’s just so much of the Democrats is oriented around hostility to basic American life.”
Judge Carlos Barrera has refused to move former Army Sergeant Daniel Perry’s “deadly conduct” case from Travis County’s criminal court despite concerns that he cannot be guaranteed a fair jury trial.
A Travis County jury had previously sentenced Perry to 25 years in prison for murder after District Attorney Jose Garza prosecuted Perry for shooting and killing an armed Black Lives Matter protester. The event occurred in July 2020 during a protest in downtown Austin. Gov. Greg Abbott pardoned Perry in May 2024.
However, even if a person is pardoned for a felony, they can still be prosecuted by the county attorney for additional misdemeanors stemming from the same incident.
Thus, Perry is still being prosecuted for his actions, this time for “deadly conduct,” a misdemeanor punishable by up to a year in jail. Travis County Attorney Delia Garza’s Office—which is prosecuting Perry for this lesser charge—claims that the use of his vehicle leading up to the 2020 altercation endangered bystanders. Perry was driving for Uber at the time of the event.
Soros-backed DA Jose Garza evidently finds it intolerable that an armed citizen was allowed to exercise their right to self-defense against a leftist member of a “protected class,” double-jeopardy be damned…
SNL loses money? “CNBC revealed SNL, Fallon and Meyers lose a combined $100 million a year, Thompson said, ‘(Lorne Michaels) cant keep doing that forever.” (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
Loni Anderson, RIP. Whatever her personal life (she was married four times, divorced three, and Burt Reynolds complained that she almost sucked his bank account dry), she was great on WKRP in Cincinnati.
In the end, Black said he was able to settle the conflict and postpone any bloodshed without any deaths by simply explaining the situation to Obama and Clinton.
At publishing time, the body of Vinny Black had reportedly been found dumped in a ditch on the outskirts of Washington, D.C., with authorities quickly ruling his death a suicide.
They’ve lost virtually all their international routes.
They’re basically back to Soviet-era route choices.
Aeroflot now has only one international flight route…into Belarus.
It’s not just flights to and from Russia that are affected. Lots of international flights between Europe and Asia transited now-closed Russian airspace. Flights from Helsinki to Tokyo now take three hours longer.
Russia has also been locked out of the Global Distribution System (GDS), which connects just about all global travel providers.
Middle East airlines are still flying too and from Russia, mainly Moscow. But without GDS, no one can directly book connecting flights to other Russian cities.
A majority of the world’s airliners are leased from an outside company. More than half of Russian airliners are leased from companies outside the country. All those are refusing to continue doing business in Russia.
The Cape Town Treaty governs aircraft repossession, and Russia is a signatory to the treaty.
But instead of following the terms of the treaty, Russia has just sanctioned the theft of those aircraft.
Both Boeing and Airbus have suspended all maintenance support with Russia. Without legitimate spare parts, even Russian-owned aircraft could be banned from flying internationally. And even Russian Sukhoi depends on German Lufthansa Technik for spare parts.
One side effect: Without outside airline ability to overfly Russian territory, Anchorage is likely to become an international hub again.
At this point, there seems to be no indication that Russian forces are measurably closer to their goal of controlling all of Ukraine.
Here’s a LiveMap snapshot.
From a pure strategic viewpoint, those Russian tendrils snaking toward Kiev from the northeast look like a bad idea, since there’s no way to protect their supply lines.
(Always remember that the map is not the territory, and that both sides are working hard to put out propaganda, though the Russians seem to be manifestly incompetent at it.)
Here’s a fascinating thread reportedly leaked from an active Russian FSB (successor to the KGB) analyst about how badly everything is screwed up.
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
I assume that’s Ramzan Kadyrov, corrupt head of the Chechen Republic, former resistance fighter against Russia who defected in 1999 and was appointed by Putin in 2007. Bit of a jihadist scumbag to boot, and just a generally nasty piece of work. I assume by “Kadyrov’s squad” they mean the Kadyrovtsy, the militia forces under his direct control.
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,
Some tweets about who could they even get post-Zelensky to sign a treaty (Medvechuk? Tsaryova? Yanukovich?) snipped.
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
Cheap Chinese tires have been blamed for a Russian convoy of armoured vehicles being unable to reach Kyiv.
Yesterday, the Ministry of Defence issued an update revealing that a convoy of Russian tanks advancing on the capital of Ukraine remained 30km from the centre of the city having made little progress over the previous three days because of “Ukranian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion.”
Karl Muth, an academic based at the University of Chicago and a self-described tire expert, took to Twitter to set out a theory blaming cheap Chinese tires for the slow advance of Russian vehicles.
“Those aren’t Soviet-era heavy truck radials,” Muth said, commenting on a photo of a Russian army vehicle with ripped tires.
Instead Muth believes the trucks use “Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20.”
“This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan. it’s a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design,” he continued.
Former pentagon staff member Trent Telenko also got stuck into the debate and said “poor Russian army truck maintenance practices” has created a risk of equipment failure.
“When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips,” Telenko said.
Morgan Stanley analyst says that Russia is heading toward debt default as soon as April 15. Those are dollar-denominated bonds, which means they can’t be paid with devalued rubles.
There are reportedly more than 400,000 “volunteer hackers” helping Ukraine fight its cyberwar against Russia.
Victor Zhora, deputy chief of Ukraine’s information protection service, told Bloomberg last week that Ukraine was putting up a “cyber resistance” against its invasion that would work to try and weaken Russia.
Zhora said: “Our friends, Ukrainians all over globe, [are] united to defend our country in cyberspace. [Ukraine is working to do] everything possible to protect our land in cyberspace, our networks, and to make the aggressor feel uncomfortable with their actions.”
He also said that volunteers were helping Ukraine obtain intelligence in order to fight back at Russian military systems.
They are also trying to get the message out to Russian citizens, who have been Fed a starkly different narrative from their government than the rest of the world has seen play out. Volunteers are working to “address Russian people directly by phone calls, by emails, by messages” and “by putting texts on their services and showing real pictures of war.”
There aren’t 400,000 real hackers around the world. But 10,000 hackers and 390,000 script kiddies can sill do a lot of damage…
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
One of the greatest surprises from the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the inability of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) fighter and fighter-bomber fleets to establish air superiority, or to deploy significant combat power in support of the under-performing Russian ground forces. On the first day of the invasion, an anticipated series of large-scale Russian air operations in the aftermath of initial cruise- and ballistic-missile strikes did not materialise. An initial analysis of the possible reasons for this identified potential Russian difficulties with deconfliction between ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, a lack of precision-guided munitions and limited numbers of pilots with the requisite expertise to conduct precise strikes in support of initial ground operations due to low average VKS flying hours. These factors all remain relevant, but are no longer sufficient in themselves to explain the anaemic VKS activity as the ground invasion continues into its second week. Russian fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night to minimise losses from Ukrainian man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) and ground fire.
Snip.
While the early VKS failure to establish air superiority could be explained by lack of early warning, coordination capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued pattern of activity suggests a more significant conclusion: that the VKS lacks the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation.
First, while the VKS has gained significant combat experience in complex air environments over Syria since 2015, it has only operated aircraft in small formations during those operations. Single aircraft, pairs or occasionally four-ships have been the norm. When different types of aircraft have been seen operating together, they have generally only comprised two pairs at most. Aside from prestige events such as Victory Day parade flypasts, the VKS also conducts the vast majority of its training flights in singles or pairs. This means that its operational commanders have very little practical experience of how to plan, brief and coordinate complex air operations involving tens or hundreds of assets in a high-threat air environment. This is a factor that many Western airpower specialists and practitioners often overlook due to the ubiquity of complex air operations – run through combined air operations centres – to Western military operations over Iraq, the Balkans, Libya, Afghanistan and Syria over the past 20 years.
Second, most VKS pilots get around 100 hours’ (and in many cases less) flying time per year – around half of that flown by most NATO air forces. They also lack comparable modern simulator facilities to train and practise advanced tactics in complex environments. The live flying hours which Russian fighter pilots do get are also significantly less valuable in preparing pilots for complex air operations than those flown by NATO forces. In Western air forces such as the RAF and US Air Force, pilots are rigorously trained to fly complex sorties in appalling weather, at low level and against live and simulated ground and aerial threats. To pass advanced fast jet training they must be able to reliably do this and still hit targets within five to ten seconds of the planned time-on-target. This is a vital skill for frontline missions to allow multiple elements of a complex strike package to sequence their manoeuvres and attacks safely and effectively, even when under fire and in poor visibility. It also takes a long time to train for and regular live flying and simulator time to stay current at. By contrast, most VKS frontline training sorties involve comparatively sterile environments, and simple tasks such as navigation flights, unguided weapon deliveries at open ranges, and target simulation flying in cooperation with the ground-based air-defence system. Russia lacks access to a training and exercise architecture to rival that available to NATO air forces, which routinely train together at well-instrumented ranges in the Mediterranean, North Sea, Canada and the US. Russia also has no equivalent to the large-scale complex air exercises with realistic threat simulation which NATO members hold annually – the most famous of which is Red Flag. As such, it would be unsurprising if most Russian pilots lack the proficiency to operate effectively as part of large, mixed formations executing complex and dynamic missions under fire.
Third, if the VKS were capable of conducting complex air operations, it should have been comparatively simple for them to have achieved air superiority over Ukraine. The small number of remaining Ukrainian fighters, conducting heroic air-defence efforts over their own cities, are forced to operate at low altitudes due to long-range Russian SAM systems and consequently have comparatively limited situational awareness and endurance. They ought to be relatively easily to overwhelm for the far more numerous, better armed and more advanced VKS fighters arranged around the Ukrainian borders. Ukrainian mobile medium- and short-range SAM systems such as SA-11 and SA-15 have had successes against Russian helicopters and fast jets. However, large Russian strike aircraft packages flying at medium or high altitude with escorting fighters would be able to rapidly find and strike any Ukrainian SAMs which unmasked their position by firing at them. They would lose aircraft in the process, but would be able to attrit the remaining SAMs and rapidly establish air superiority.
Russia has every incentive to establish air superiority, and on paper should be more than capable of doing so if it commits to combat operations in large, mixed formations to suppress and hunt down Ukrainian fighters and SAM systems. Instead, the VKS continues to only operate in very small numbers and at low level to minimise the threat from the Ukrainian SAMs. Down low, their situational awareness and combat effectiveness is limited, and they are well within range of the MANPADS such as Igla and Stinger which Ukrainian forces already possess. The numbers of MANPADS are also increasing, as numerous Western countries send supplies to beleaguered Ukrainian forces. To avoid additional losses to MANPADS, sorties continue to be primarily flown at night, which further limits the effectiveness of their mostly unguided air-to-ground weapons.
How Russian propaganda has sold some of the Russian people on Project Z. But Russian troops are finding things quite a different story. Warning: Bodies, and at about 18 seconds in one, I think strewn body parts:
But once they realised that there will be resistance and the war looks like this, their enthusiasm started declining. Which means it will be much harder to find new volunteers to go fight to Ukraine. But you need them. What are you gonna do? pic.twitter.com/ItmwcYSwIe
“Sources have been telling me, sources that are well connected to the Russian Security Services, that the offensive is not going well, that some special forces, the Russian Spetsnaz, are furious because they have been sent into battle without proper support, and many of them have been killed. They say that the national guard forces and the regular army, the national guard forces include those Chechen units, that two of them are not coordinating on the field. And that the overall battle plan is somewhat disjointed in that it’s partly a plan for war and partly a plan for peacekeeping and so-called de-Nazification of this country. And it has led to a lack of cohesion,” Engel reported.
“A lot of this goes back to the man who’s behind it all, Vladimir Putin, who I’m told is now increasingly isolated, is just taking advice from his inner circle, that there are only about three people who matter right now,” Engel continued. “And that speech, you mentioned it a short while ago, that Putin gave yesterday — bizarre location, speaking at Aeroflot, to a group of flight attendants. He sounded incredibly angry. He sounded detached. He was talking about how the Ukrainians here are machine-gunning people, that they’re driving around in cars packed with explosives, jihadi-style. And he went very deep and repeatedly on this theme that they’re fighting against the Nazis. It was the angriest I’ve ever seen him.”
This is from a couple of days ago. Have Spetsnaz pissed off at you doesn’t seem like a good long-term survival strategy for a Russian leader. On the other hand, this report probably deserves some skepticism, since it fits too easily into what we would like to hear about the situation, so some salt is in order. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
“Ukraine says it has RE-TAKEN Chuhuiv city and killed two high-ranking Russian commanders during the battle.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
“A Complete Summary Of All Russia Sanctions And Developments.” Read on for exciting blow-by-blow summaries of foreign exchange surcharges and debt repayment details…
What rolls down stairs/alone and in pairs/and up-armors your Russian truck? Caveat: They call this improvised armor, but it could also be on-hand materials for traction in muddy areas.
